In the off-season, the Phillies couldn’t engage in talks for big name pitchers like Dan Haren or Johan Santana or even medium name pitchers like Joe Blanton or Jon Garland because of their lack of elite minor league talent.
Going into the season, they had only 2 top-100 prospects in RHP Carlos Carrasco and LHP Joe Savery. However, a quarter of the way through the season, the Phillies’ minor league system has seen several new names and some old names either emerge or step up their game and show that our farm system might be better off than we thought.
So that there is some baseline to the numbers you are about to see, here are the same numbers for some recent Phillies top prospects in the minors for their last year in the minors.
|
Name |
Level |
Age |
W |
L |
ERA |
WHIP |
SO |
BB |
IP |
K/9 |
H/9 |
|
K. Kendrick |
AA |
22 |
4 |
7 |
3.21 |
1.23 |
50 |
18 |
81.1 |
5.53 |
9.07 |
|
C. Hamels |
A-AAA |
22 |
3 |
1 |
1.10 |
0.84 |
68 |
12 |
49.0 |
12.49 |
5.32 |
|
B. Myers |
AAA |
21 |
9 |
6 |
3.59 |
1.10 |
97 |
20 |
128.0 |
6.82 |
8.51 |
|
R. Wolf |
AAA |
22 |
4 |
5 |
3.61 |
1.32 |
72 |
29 |
77.1 |
8.38 |
8.50 |
|
G. Floyd |
AA |
21 |
6 |
6 |
2.57 |
1.17 |
94 |
46 |
119.0 |
7.11 |
7.03 |
New Guys
Drew Naylor, RHP, 6′4” 210, Lakewood (A), Age: 21
|
W |
L |
ERA |
WHIP |
SO |
BB |
IP |
K/9 |
H/9 |
|
3 |
2 |
2.04 |
0.89 |
62 |
13 |
53.0 |
10.53 |
5.77 |
The best indicator of future success for a minor league pitcher is their strikeout rate. If you can’t make minor leaguers miss, you certainly won’t make major leaguers miss. Naylor is one of three Phillies minor leaguers in the top-5 in strikeouts across the entire MiLB. In fact, Naylor is currently #1 after striking out 12 in his last outing. He has 13 more K’s than anyone in his league and is 6th in ERA and 3rd in WHIP. His fastball isn’t dominating, but he has good control and above average breaking pitches (curve and change-up). He will likely be promoted to A-Adv. soon, it will be interesting to see if he can keep his strikeout lead up there.
Antonio Bastardo, LHP, 5′11” 160, Reading (AA), Age: 22
|
W |
L |
ERA |
WHIP |
SO |
BB |
IP |
K/9 |
H/9 |
|
3 |
1 |
1.96 |
1.08 |
58 |
13 |
41.1 |
12.62 |
6.96 |
Get the jokes about his name out of the way, this kid can pitch. He’s already been promoted once this season and his K/9 rate is the best our organization has seen from a starter since Cole Hamels. Like Naylor, he is also in the top-5 in K’s in the MiLB. Bastardo is not as good as Hamels, but he has made dramatic improvements this season. He is paper-thin and like Hamels, he strikes out most people on his change-up. He was a little old to be starting the year in A-Adv, but can make up for it with a strong rest of the season in Reading.
Edgar Garcia, RHP, 6′2” 190, Clearwater (A-Adv), Age: 20
|
W |
L |
ERA |
WHIP |
SO |
BB |
IP |
K/9 |
H/9 |
|
5 |
0 |
3.43 |
1.36 |
36 |
13 |
42.0 |
7.71 |
9.42 |
Garcia actually has the better stuff than Naylor or Bastardo but is still raw and there are some questions about his work ethic. Baseball America says that he has a low-90s fastball with a lot of life and has the make-up of a middle of the rotation starter. He gives up too many hits, but he is still very young and has plenty of time to improve his control.
Old Guys
Fabio Castro, LHP, 5′8” 157, Reading (AA), Age: 23
|
W |
L |
ERA |
WHIP |
SO |
BB |
IP |
K/9 |
H/9 |
|
3 |
0 |
3.21 |
1.34 |
36 |
19 |
33.2 |
9.62 |
6.95 |
Castro has been both a starter and and reliever for Reading this year. The Phillies probably aren’t sure whether to peg him as a starter or a reliever because of his size and potential durability issues. He has already showed his potential on the Major League level with a 3.30 ERA in 43.2 IP. When he started for the Phillies, it was clear that he had good stuff, but needed to work on his location. He has more strikeouts than IP and a decent H/9 rate, but he still needs to work on his control. If he gets that together, he could be a decent starter.
J.A. Happ, LHP, 6′5” 205, Lehigh Valley (AAA), Age: 25
|
W |
L |
ERA |
WHIP |
SO |
BB |
IP |
K/9 |
H/9 |
|
0 |
4 |
2.72 |
1.23 |
55 |
23 |
46.1 |
10.68 |
6.60 |
Happ made 1 start for the Phillies last year, and I would be shocked if he isn’t in the rotation in the next couple months. Happ was injured for much of last year, but has had a huge bounce back year. He is kind of similar to Randy Wolf in that he has a low-90s fastball that hitters have trouble picking up because of his deceptive motion. Unlike Wolf, his best breaking pitch is a change-up. His K/9 rate has always been around 9, but this year, he striking people out at the best rate of his minor league career. He should be up soon, the question is whether he will be replacing Adam Eaton, Kyle Kendrick or someone else in the rotation.
Hyped Guys
Josh Outman, LHP, 6′1” 180, Reading (AA), Age: 23
|
W |
L |
ERA |
WHIP |
SO |
BB |
IP |
K/9 |
H/9 |
|
1 |
2 |
3.00 |
1.58 |
37 |
17 |
33.0 |
10.09 |
9.54 |
One of the strangest moves of the year had the Phillies moving Outman to the bullpen. Outman has been considered one of our better starter prospects for the last couple years. The Phillies have been looking for the LH reliever all year, and my guess is that they are going let Outman get his feet wet in that role this season, and then put him back to starting next year. Like Happ, Outman uses deception to his advantage and has a very impressive K/9 rate. Unlike Happ, he gives up a lot of hits and clearly needs to work on his control with that 1.58 WHIP.
Joe Savery, LHP, 6′3” 215, Clearwater (A-Adv), Age: 22
|
W |
L |
ERA |
WHIP |
SO |
BB |
IP |
K/9 |
H/9 |
|
1 |
3 |
3.91 |
1.52 |
40 |
21 |
46.0 |
7.82 |
9.58 |
One of the Phillies 2 top prospects, the Phillies first round pick last year has had a decent first year in the minors. Savery has a solid fastball and an above average change-up and curve ball. He is currently letting up too many hits and has a high WHIP, but he is still in the transition phase from college to pro. To go along with his solid pitches, Savery has a great work ethic and won’t fall short of the majors due to lack of trying. He has the 2nd highest potential of any Phillies pitcher and will be watched very closely by the organization throughout the year.
Carlos Carrasco, RHP, 6′3” 178, Reading (AA), Age: 21
|
W |
L |
ERA |
WHIP |
SO |
BB |
IP |
K/9 |
H/9 |
|
3 |
3 |
3.77 |
1.30 |
44 |
19 |
43.0 |
9.20 |
7.74 |
Despite being only 21, Carrasco has been the Phillies top prospect for the past couple years. He has 2 of the best pitches in the system; his 92-94 MPH fastball with great late movement and his plus change-up. He has been up and down so far this season, either dominating the compitition or giving up a bunch of hits. He is 2nd in the Eastern League in K’s, but, like many of these other pitchers, he needs to improve his control. Carrasco has the highest ceiling of any the Phillies pitchers, but the Phillies will not rush him to majors.
What this means
None of these guys have the “can’t miss” stuff that Hamels or say, a Tim Lincecum has, but these are 8 guys that have a decent chance to be contributors in our rotation (or atleast trade chips, without killing our system) in the future. All 8 won’t develop into ML Starters, but chances are a couple will within the next couple of years. There numbers look similar or better to all the previous top prospects (Myers, Wolf, etc.)with the exception of Hamels and many of the strike-out rates are very impressive. With the price of pitching as ridiculous as it is these days (see Eaton, Adam) the best way to build your team is through young pitching in your system. For the first time in awhile, the Phillies are looking like the might have more than couple guys who can fit that bill.



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