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2008-09 NBA Preview: Atlanta Hawks

by Dannie & Pete

See all 2009 NBA team previews

Atlanta Hawks

2007-08 Record: 37-45

Cool 2007 StatSF/PF Josh Smith joined Hall of Fame Centers Hakeem Olajuwon, David Robinson, Patrick Ewing and Kareem Abdul-Jabaar as the only players to average 17 ppg, 8 rpg, 1.5 stl/g and 2.5 blk/g in a single season. He was also younger than any of the four when they did it.

Anticipated Starting Five

PG- Mike Bibby
SG- Joe Johnson
SF- Marvin Williams
PF- Josh Smith
C- Al Horford

Key Reserves: Acie Law, Flip Murray, Maurice Evans, Solomon Jones, Zaza Pachulia

Biggest Strength – Talented Starters

Atlanta is solid at point and small forward.  Very good at shooting guard, power forward and center.  These guys can play, and when they are clicking on all cylinders, they can compete and beat most teams in the league.  They should benefit from having Mike Bibby there for a full training camp and season.  Whether all this talent translates to more wins will depend largely on if a bench player has a surprise season and really contributes in Josh Childress’ absence.

Biggest Weakness – Inconsistency

This team has a real nice mix of talent, but they go on too many hot and cold streaks offensively.  And their effort wavers at times.  This was clearly evident in the playoffs last year.  They were a clear sweepcandidate against Boston.  Instead they brought everything they had in 3 games and surprised everyone – even themselves I bet.  For this young team the next step is playing the way they did in those three games, the large majority of the season.

Key Player in ’08 – Al Horford

Who is going to pick up the slack left by the departure of Josh Childress?  Maurice Evans was a nice acquisition and will help a bit, but he isn’t the player Childress was.  I think it should and will come from Horford.  He gained a lot of confidence and improved as the year went on, averaging a double-double in the Boston playoff series.  If the Hawks want to stay in the mix for a playoff spot, they will need even more improvement and contribution from their young center.

Their Thaddeus (exciting player 22 or under)Marvin Williams, 22

Josh Smith is the obvious choice here, but he’ll be covered in other parts of this preview as well. Williams, on the other hand, came into Atlanta with higher expectations and fans are still waiting to see if he can live up to them. The Hawks famously picked Williams over Chris Paul and Deron Williams in 2005. While those 2 both have gold medals, Williams is quietly coming off his best season as a pro, averaging 14.8 points and 5.7 rebounds per game. Still only 22, Williams has the skills to keep improving, but whether or not he can mature and develop that killer instinct will dictate whether or not he can be an all-star.

Pete’s 2008 Outlook: 4th place, Southeast division / 12th place, Eastern conference / 24th place, NBA

You could argue that the Hawks played the World Champion Celtics as hard as any other team in the playoffs last year. However, like many up-and-coming young teams, I see them taking a step back this year. The loss of Josh Childress hurts, but I think it will hurt more on the psyche of the players than on the actual court. They were on the verge of doing great things, and ownership sent a clear message that they really only care about their checkbook. That’s just not an environment that breeds winning teams. Added to this is that, while the Hawks took a step back player-wise, several Eastern teams improved and leaped over them.

Dannie’s 2008 Outlook: 4th place, Southeast division / 9th place, Eastern conference / 18th place, NBA

I don’t think I can say it any better than Pete did.  The loss of Childress hurt; he was their versatile spark of the bench and their most efficient player all-around.  I think they can still make the playoffs, but in order to overcome their loss, and the improvement of other teams in the conference, they need all-star performances from both Joe Johnson and Josh Smith.  They need continued growth and production out of the center position.  And they need Mike Bibby to play like he did 2003-2006.  That’s is a lot to ask, which is why I have them falling back this season.

Josh Smtih
Philly Connection: Josh Smith

I don’t there is anything that we can say about Josh Smith that we haven’t already said on this blog. Before the Elton Brand shocker, the Sixers brought in Smith as soon as they possibly could and appeared to be ready to offer him a huge deal that would be tough for the Hawks to match. He would have made the Sixers arguably the most exciting team in the NBA, but his youth and questioned drive would have left us fans with slightly lower expectations for this season. Either way, Philly fans will compare Brand with Smith as they both play out their new deals.

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September 19, 2008

{ 5 comments… read them below or add one }

1 jjg 09.19.08 at 2:16 pm

Ancestral Tri-City Black Hawks number 1 draft pick (3rd overall) in 1950:  none other than ”Houdini of the Hardwood”, Bob Cousy.  Ballhandling and passing skills brought pizazz to 50s NBA.  Played in 7 game comeback try at age 41 while coaching Royals, 6 years after he had hung it up (perfect 3-3 from line).  ‘63 retirement ceremony was called ”Boston Tear Party.”  “The Cooz” – 8 consecutive assist titles, 6 NBA titles!
What a French-American! 
  

2 Rob 09.19.08 at 2:18 pm

The Atlanta Hawks, one of last season’s Cinderella teams along with the Sixers to get the final two playoff spots and played a great series against Boston and Detriot respectfully, before falling in 7 and 6 games.  Can the Hawks make the playoffs again?  How long will former Sixers/Pistons assistant coach Mike Woodson last as the Hawks head coach?  What will Rick Sund’s next move be?   

Biggest Strength(s):
Even without Childress, they still have:
-Fastbreak scoring
-Offensive rebounding
-Added two more veterans (Evans and Murray)
-Phillips Arena (Hawks fans exist and is a Highlight Factory)
-One year of playoff experience (last year only Bibby & Johnson had the experience)
-A healthy Mike Bibby could be key!

Biggest weakness(es):
-Three point shooting
-Playing in half-court
-Josh Childress
-Depth
-Road problems
-Young mistakes

With that said, I think the Hawks could be 3rd in the Southeast, 8th in the East.  If the Wizards do happen to falter a bit without Arenas, this could improve their chances. 

There will be four teams that I think will be fighting strongly for that 8th seed:
-Atlanta Hawks 
-Miami Heat
-Chicago Bulls
-Milwaukee Bucks
(And perhaps the Wizards if they really falter without Arenas!)

Why they would win the 8th seed?
-All the strength mentioned above
-A year of playoff experience in their belt (consistency)
-Mike Woodson is still the coach (consistency)
-Added two more veterans
-Mentally tough against the Celtics

Why they would not win the 8th seed?
-All the weaknesses mentioned above
-Too much competition
 
Only one national television appearance on ESPN v.s Boston!!  Where is the love for Atlanta?

Anyway on a side note, the Sixers will be (2-1) against the Hawks.  (two at Atlanta, one at Philadelphia).  The Sixers will win one on the road and one at home, the Hawks will win one on their floor.  Depth will be the Sixers main difference in the matchups.  Our depth is way better than the Hawks! 

Shoutout to the TNT Studios in Atlanta and Charles!!! 

To Atlanta, HAHAHAHA for the Braves going 0-9 against the Phillies at Turner Field this year!!

3 deepsixersuede 09.19.08 at 6:21 pm

I think they take a major step back, don!t like this team!s basketball I.Q. at all. Bibby looks shot first  and Josh is very up and down. Agree Pete about the message they sent, and if T.J.Ford or A.Miller were their starting p.g. they would probably improve 10 games. I think Indiana and Charlotte both pass them this year.

4 Jon 09.19.08 at 10:14 pm

I have Hawks winning 43.  Their backcourt is stable with Bibby and Johnson.  Every one of their frontcourt starters is on the rise.  They are a young team that will continue to get better.  Watch out for Williams.  He added 15 pounds of muscle this offseason and worked hard on expanding his offensive arsenal.

5 Dave T 09.23.08 at 3:11 am

This is a classic team with great individual talent that has no clue how to play together…I’m 100% with Suede, their collective bball IQ is too underwhelming to win regularly.  They ride the coattails of which particular star is hot that night (J Johnson, Josh, or Bibby)…and are extremely inconsistent.

That said: they have one of the more interesting frontcourts in the NBA.  Not many teams can claim to have a legit 6′10 defensive stud in the middle, that knows his role, is happy to average 10 boards a night and a block or two, and whose offense will only get better year to year (obviously I refer to Horford). 

I think the Josh Smith/Marvin Williams frontcourt…will either be a total flop, or could really surprise people.  While I liked Josh Childress as a nice role player off the bench, he stole a lot of minutes from a guy I really think has improved: Marvin Williams. This guy is a completely different player then he was three years ago…he has really, really worked on his game, and I think is ready to raise his status in the NBA to the next level.  Childress leaving will give him an extra 8 mpg to find some confidence and consistency…he’ll be a nice gem for them this year.

I also think if Josh Smith can get his act together this guy is just a versatile offensive and defensive wrecking ball that could become a top 10 player for the next decade.  He can be awfully boneheaded with shot selection and has the ability to wreck a team’s chemistry…usually I hate guys like that…but man, his talent level is just off the freaking chart when he’s on.  His post game has improved, especially his footwork…his passing is much better, and he literally has no fear in any situation…I really think he genuinely believes he can score at will, and as his career continues, this is going to manifest itself on the court more.  Love his hustle, defense and shot blocking ability…really can impact a game, a la Artest, with his energy alone.  Then again, he whines, complains and can drag a team down with the bad attitude…interesting year for him.

Joe Johnson…one of the most frustratingly inconsistant guys in the league.  Sometimes he legitimately looks like a SG in the vein of T-Mac at his best…other times he just lets himself get lost in the shuffle of the offense.  I think given that he’s played PG a lot before switching to full time SG…and that he came to the NBA way too early from Arkansas…but with those growing pains it’s really health that’s held him back, and inferior teammates.  No excuses this season though, with a veteran like Bibby in the backcourt to help him out.  He is a potential 24 pt, 5 rb, 4 ast type guy…we’ll have to wait and see if he ever actually meets that potential.

Again though…like Suede…I just can’t have confidence in this group.  I don’t think it’s the right fit of guys playing together…although if Josh Smith and J Johnson play up to their potential, Horford and Marv improve, and Bibby plays like he did in the mid 00’s…not a team I look forward to playing.  Just seems like more very talented individual parts instead of an actual team.

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