2008-09 NBA Preview: Cleveland Cavaliers

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Cleveland Cavaliers

2007-08 Record: 45-37

Cool 2007 Stat: LeBron is easy. This year was only 7th time in history a player averaged 30 points, 7 rebounds and 7 assists per game. Jordan did it once, The Big-O did it 5 times. Oh - and perhaps the most ridiculous stat of the year? LeBron grew an inch.

Anticipated Starting Five

PG- Mo Williams
SG- Wally Szczerbiak
SF- LeBron James
PF- Ben Wallace
C- Zydrunas Ilguaskus

Bench: Daniel Gibson, Delonte West, Sasha Pavlovic, J.J. Hickson, Anderson Varejao

Biggest Strength- LeBron James

Everything revolves around King James.  When you have proven you can almost single-handedly take a team to the Finals, I would consider that player the biggest strength.  He creates shots for everyone with his penetration and passing ability.  He can score in every way possible (he needs to post up more).  As Pete’s cool stat says he had his most productive season by far.  At 23 he will be at least as good this year, if not better, which gives this team a chance in the East.

Biggest Weakness - Front court/inside offense

This team has one front court player that is a legit on the block scorer - and he is a rookie.  J.J. Hickson showed some good talent in the summer league; all of you know this was the guy Pete and I wanted the Sixers to draft.  I also think he is part of the reason they let Joe Smith go.  With that said, everyone knows Wallace and Varejao are defensive specialists.  And Ilguaskus over time has evolved into a perimeter shooting big man almost exclusively.  To my knowledge the Cavs don’t have one player that shoots 50% from the field or better.  That probably explains why they were 28th in FG% shooting and 26th in adjusted FG% shooting (accounting for 3pt. shots). Which means they are going to be relying on James to score in the paint and hoping guys like Wiliams, Szczerbiak, Gibson and West make a lot of outside shots.  I would be more confident if they were among the league leaders in three point shooting as a team, but they were only middle of the pack in that area.

I always come back to it, how many teams have won championships without a good big man that can scoring inside?  The MJ-led Bulls.  Can LeBron do better than just a Finals appearance without a big man as his running mate like Jordan?

Key Player in ’08 - Mo Williams

Mo Williams is the key player because he was the only significant addition the team made to get better.  It’s been said all LeBron needs is a solid #2 player to help out on offense, and that is exactly what they are hoping Williams will bring to the Cavs.  The East got better as whole so I don’t see LeBron pulling off another 2007 Finals run on his own.  Williams will be the most capable scorer LeBron has been paired with in his career (Boozer at age 22 wasn’t the player he is now).  Will that be enough?

Their Thaddeus (exciting player 22 or under)– J.J. Hickson, 20

Hickson is the player that both Dannie and I wanted the Sixers to take in the 1st round. He’s athletic, a strong rebounder around the basket and has a solid and improving offensive game. He’s not a prototype PF like Speights, but he would have fit in great in our system. So far, he’s impressed the Cavs, averaging 19.4 points, 7.8 boards and1.2 blocks per game in summer league. With the Cavs trading away Joe Smith, Hickson might get a chance to make an impact right away.

Pete’s 2008 Outlook: 1st place, Central division / 2nd place, Eastern conference /6th place, NBA

I have the Cavs as the 2nd best team in the Eastern Conference, but they are my pick to play (and lose to) the Lakers in the NBA Finals. LeBron showed that he doesn’t need much to put a team on his back, and I think that this is the best talent he’s had around him in his career. Mo Williams is a younger Mike Bibby and a huge addition. They get Daniel Gibson back, J.J. Hickson coming in, and a deep bench of contributors. But make no mistake about it, they will get to the Finals because LeBron will lead them there, but now he’s got a couple more weapons around him to score.

Dannie’s 2008 Outlook: 2nd place, Central division / 5th place, Eastern conference /9th place, NBA

I personally don’t think the Cleveland Cavaliers are that good.  Consider this:

• The Pythagorean win-loss record for the Cavs last season was 40-42
• David Berri’s wins produced for the Cavs correlates with the above number as well at 40.2

Cleveland actually had a negative point differential (only them and Washington had a winning record and negative point differential last season). That and the two points above suggest they overachieved last year winning 45 games.  That is directly attributed to the impact LeBron has all by himself.  I am just not convinced they have enough front court offense and overall support for James to really compete with Boston and Detroit and to a lesser degree the Sixers in the East.

Mo Williams will help and they have Wallace and Varejao for a whole season which on paper should help their defense.  But I don’t expect much improvement in terms of wins this season.  What it comes down to: LeBron James is simply phenomenal, which makes the Cavs slightly above average and competitive during the regular season and scary as hell in playoffs.  Sixers fans should be concerned about a potential first roundmatch-up with James this season.

Philly Connection Delonte West

Delonte West is the other half of the guard tandem that ran St. Joes magical run back in 2004. West surprised many when he opted to leave early for the NBA Draft, and he surprised even more, when he showed he made the right decision, getting picked in the first round by the Celtics. West was a ridiculous shooter at St. Joes shooting 51% from the field, 41% from 3 and 89% from the FT line in his junior season. He has an incredible knack for lining up his body for the shot regardless of his position on the court or in the air. He’s been traded several times already but has been a solid contributor everywhere he’s been, including 3 21pt performances in the playoffs for the Cavs last year.

October 10, 2008