2008-09 NBA Preview: Dallas Mavericks

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Dallas Mavericks

2007-08 Record:

Cool 2007 Stat: How unique is Dirk Nowitzki? After he gets 6 blocks in 2008-09, he will be the only player ever to have 17,000 points, 6,500 rebounds, 1,000 3PM and 800 blocks. And he’s only 29. And I didn’t even mention his 700 steals and 2,000 assists.

Anticipated Starting Five

PG- Jason Kidd
SG- Jason Terry
SF- Josh Howard
PF- Dirk Nowitzki
C- Erick Dampier

Bench: Jerry Stackhouse, Brandon Bass, Sagana Diop, Devean George, Antoine Wright

Biggest Strength – Balance

Looking over the numbers this team was solid in most areas.  They shoot the ball well, were the best free throw-shooting team in the league and got to the line to take advantage of that.  They are a good rebounding team, ranking 4th in rebound differential.  They have a legit start in Dirk Nowitzki and a good #2 guy in Josh Howard.  They protect the ball well, ranking 5th in turnovers per game.  It’s clear why this team won 51 games last season.  But why is it that none of this translates into the playoffs?

Biggest Weakness – Identity

Who is this team?  That’s the question I’ve been thinking about for this preview.  Are they a running team?  Well, kind of, Kidd certainly likes to run and find guys streaking.  But last season if you noticed Kidd found himself running and his teammates struggled to keep up with him.  Are they a defensive team?  Kind of, they were 3rd in opponents’ FG% (44.31%) and tied for second in opponents’ adjusted FG% (47%) during the regular season.  But in their first round playoff series the Hornets shot 48.53% which was second to last among playoff teams (our lowly Sixers were last), and the Mavs were dead last in opponents’ 3pt% allowing the Hornets to shoot an astounding 46%.  Are they a half-court, grind-it-out team?  I tend to think they are, considering their pace was 25th in the league at 90.2.  But if Jason Kidd can’t make shots it becomes more difficult to be effective.  They have a new coach and Jason Kidd for an entire season; they need to figure out what their game is and make sure they carry it into the playoffs – if they get in.

Key Player in ’08 – Jason Kidd

The Mavs made a terrible trade at the end of last year, trading the promising young Devin Harris, for one shot at a title with Jason Kidd. Needless to say, the Mavs went 17-18 after the Kidd trade including the playoffs and were completely outmatched by the Hornets. In order for the Mavs to turn it around this year, Kidd needs to prove people like me wrong and make the trade not look like a mistake. It’s possible that the team just needed some time to mesh, but in my opinion, it’s more possible that Kidd is over the hill and simply can’t keep up with the elite Western PGs anymore.

Their Thaddeus (exciting player 22 or under) – Gerald Green, 22

Here are the #1 high school players in the country, as ranked by Rivals.com, since 2003:

2003: LeBron James
2004: Dwight Howard
2005: Gerald Green
2006: Greg Oden
2007: Michael Beasley

Yes, Gerald Green is that talented. The 2005 McDonalds All-American Game was held in South Bend, IN, and I got to see Green play in person. During warmups, he was throwing down ridiculous dunks, some that he showed off again while winning the dunk contest in 2007. During the actual game, Green showed he wasn’t all flash, hitting 6 of 9 three-pointers and finishing with 24 points in 20 minutes. The Tracy McGrady comparisons looked dead-on. Since then, however, his NBA career has sputtered, averaging 8.1 points in 3 seasons. Dallas was right to take a chance on him, and if he matures as a player, many teams might wish they gave him a minimum contract.

Pete’s 2008 Outlook: 4th place, Southwest division / 9th place, Western conference / 17th place, NBA

Yes, I have Dallas missing the playoffs. Between Kidd getting older, Josh Howard doing god knows what and not much else on board besides Dirk, I think they regress just enough to miss the cut. This is the type of team where it’s going to get a lot worse before it gets better. Their core is not really going to improve themselves, and they don’t have any young players to build around. Both they and the Suns should look at how the Kings mismanaged breaking down their core of Webber, Peja, Bibby and Divac because that is where these guys are going.

Dannie’s 2008 Outlook: 4th place, Southwest division / 9th place, Western conference / 15th place, NBA

There is something about this team that I just don’t like.  It started back when they blew the NBA Finals.  I started to question their killer instinct and heart.  Adding Jason Kidd helps that, but is he enough?  Mark Cuban was willing to bet his young, future point guard it is.  I don’t.  I think Jason Kidd is still decent but would have been a better fit with a team like the Lakers.  He doesn’t bring enough to Dallas to change their fortune.  He is going to get eaten up by younger, quicker point guards.  He will be challenged every night to make jump shots as teams double Nowitzki.  Dallas fans better hope the last 35 games after the Kidd trade were not indicative of what the entire season will be like this year.

Philly Connection: Jerry Stackhouse

Jerry Stackhouse came to Philadelphia with as much hype as any rookie I can remember. He was one of the many players dubbed “the next Jordan” during the couple years after Jordan retired and the NBA was desperate. Despite the hype and decent play, Stackhouse was traded after only 2 1/2 seasons when the team decided he couldn’t mesh with Allen Iverson. The Sixers traded him to the Pistons and got Theo Ratliff and Aaron McKie in return (love those guys, but we couldn’t get a better deal, or at least a draft pick?). He won the scoring title in 2000-01 with Detroit (29.8ppg) and was traded a season later for Rip Hamilton. Since then, Stackhouse has made himself a very good role player off the bench with Washington and Dallas.

October 15, 2008