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Golden State Warriors
2007-08 Record: 48-34
Cool 2007 Stat: Baron Davis, Monta Ellis and Stephen Jackson were the first trio to each average 20 ppg for the same team since fellow Warriors Chris Mullin, Tim Hardaway and Mitch Ritchmond did it in 1990-91.
Anticipated Starting Five
PG- Monta Ellis (injured to start the season)
SG- Corey Maggette
SF- Stephen Jackson
PF- Al Harrington
C- Andris Biedrins
Key Reserves: Marcus Williams, Kelenna Azubuike, Marco Belinelli, Ronny Turiaf, Brandan Wright
Biggest Strength – Explosive on offense
Pete’s cool 2007 stat says it all. This team was good at running, putting up a lot of shots and points. This year won’t be any different. You simply swap out one 20-point scorer in Baron Davis for another in Corey Maggette. With their quickness across the board they should be able to force turnovers and score in transition. But without those easy baskets they will be stuck relying on individuals to create shots for themselves in the half court. Which leads me to their weakness…
Biggest Weakness – No floor leader
Who is the point guard on this team? Who is the guy that will identify the hot man and make sure that player gets the rock in positions to score? As currently constructed this team doesn’t have that guy. The slated starting lead guard is Monta Ellis. We all know he is not a point guard and thrives off the ball, looking to score. Will his role change now that Davis is gone and there is a void at point guard? I don’t think so. The first alternative option is Marcus Williams, who I expect to start at point while Ellis is recovering from his mysterious injury. He has limited experience being stuck behind Jason Kidd and is unproven. The other option is C.J. Watson, a second-year player with even less experience. The Golden State Warriors do not have one player with an assist-to-turnover ratio of two or better. To make matters worst they brought in Corey Maggette who has a sub-one assist-to-turnover ratio. With such poor and/or unwilling passers and no dominant inside presence, this team is going to be playing one-on-one ball every time down court offensively. They will be fun to watch, but without a floor general, that isn’t going to be good enough to get one of the top 8 spots in the West.
Key Player in ’08 – Monta Ellis
As Dannie said above, the Warriors are without a floor leader, but they are also without a face of the franchise with Davis gone. In the offseason, Ellis was paid like a franchise player, and this year he needs to act like one. So far, with his apparent irresponsible injury, he’s off to a terrible start. But when he comes back, can he make the leap to a superstar level? It might be more likely than you think. Since 2000, 11 players have averaged 20.2 ppg or more (Ellis’ average last year) at 22 or younger, they are: LeBron James, Carmelo Anthony, Kobe Bryant, Tracy McGrady, Amare Stoudemire, Chris Bosh, Dirk Nowitzki, Chris Paul, Dwight Howard, Kevin Durant and Monta Ellis. The Warriors invested a lot of money hoping his name won’t look out of place on that list for long.
Their Thaddeus (exciting player 22 or under) – Brandan Wright, 21
There are a lot of players that could fall into this category for the Warriors, including Ellis, Andris Biedrins and Anthony Randolph, but Wright is the most intriguing and unproven for me. The only 2 players ranked above him in his high school class were Greg Oden and Kevin Durant. In his freshman year at UNC, the 6’10” forward showed smooth skills around the basket and averaged 15 ppg on 65% shooting. The Warriors thought enough of him that they traded one of their best players for him. But last season, he ended up playing just slightly more minutes than Kevin Ollie did for us. It’ll be interesting to see if he gets a chance to prove himself on the court, or if 2008 draft pick Randolph passes him in the depth chart.
Pete’s 2008 Outlook: 4th place, Pacific division / 12th place, Western conference / 22nd place, NBA
I’ll keep this short. By essentially trading Baron Davis for Corey Maggette, the Warriors went into rebuilding mode. Davis made the team go, just like Nash makes the Suns go. They have a nice young core with Ellis, Biedrins, Randolph and Wright, but these guys are going to have to develop before they find themselves back in the playoffs again.
Dannie’s 2008 Outlook: 4th place, Pacific division / 11th place, Western conference / 21st place, NBA
The Warriors take a step back this season with the loss of Baron Davis. Right now they are a collection of individuals who are good at getting their own. Al Harrington seems disgruntled, unhappy with his current role. The lack of a floor leader to take charge when things aren’t going well really worries me with this team. Two years ago, they slide into the playoffs with 42 wins and rocked the top seed Mavericks out of the playoffs. Last year they won 6 more games than the previous season and just missed the playoffs. This season they won’t even be close in the playoff race. And I had that thought even before I found out Ellis could be out until December.
Philly Connection: Andris Biedrins
Had Rob Babcock not been one of the worst GM’s in NBA history, Biedrins, not Andre Iguodala, would have been bartering with Ed Stefanski for a contract extension this summer. By many accounts, the Sixers were targeting Josh Childress and Biedrins in their spot, and it appeared Biedrins would be their man after Childress went 6th to the Hawks. However, Babcock took Rafael Araujo over the already slipping Andre Iguodala, and he fell right into the Sixers’ laps. Biedrins was selected by the Warriors and has proven to be a solid pro, averaging 10.5 ppg and 9.8 rpg while shooting an NBA-best 62.6% from the field.
The Warriors have a great offensive coach in Don Nelson, the master of setting up mismatches on the offensive end. However, as with all Nelson teams, the team defense is non-existent. This is a feast or famine team, a helter-skelter team, a team with no script– which is a good thing and a bad thing. Their Offense and preying on the Eastern Teams (especially at Oracle Arena) will keep the Warriors alive and in the hunt for the 8th, but will fall short. (They will be 4th in the Pacific, but 10th in the West.)
Boy, do the Warriors have a lot of connections with the L.A Clippers, especially this year:
-Baron Davis (did anyone see that coming?) The only reason I can think of would be the game against the Suns, when Nelson did not play him the 2nd half.
- Kelenna Azubuike was close to signing with the Clippers until the Warriors matched the offer sheet.
-Both teams used to have Matt Barnes.
-Corey Maggette is now a Warrior, but how will he fit? For him, this was a move just for a lot of money.
-Both teams were also involved in trying to get Elton Brand, luckily the Sixers did. Warriors offered for more money.
-Shaun Livingston working out with the Warriors.
-Basically, for the 2008 NBA offseason, it has been the Warriors and Clippers adding and subtracting players from rosters.
Rob, remember Monta is out for at least the first 17 games (if he comes back exactly on December 1st) which could have them in a real bad hole early in the West. And I don’t think the East will the easy pickings it was last year.
As we know, their defensive shortcomings won’t give them much of a chance in the west. They will outscore teams, but not every night. As long as we don’t give up any late corner threes to Azubuike (remember that?) we should beat them twice.
On a separate note, I think the Sixers will sweep the Warriors (2-0) this season, courtesy of Monta Ellis’ injury. We will play them in November at home, and play them in Oakland on March during a 5 game West Coast Trip. A lack of PF (a real PF) will give the Sixers a big advantage against the Warriors. And yes, defensively the Warriors and Nelson teams have issues. Plus, Monta’s injury is really creating a stir in what’s going on in the Bay Area. Also, what will happen with the Warrior’s mascot, Thunder, now that Oklahoma has a team called “Thunder”. A law suit in the making: “Thunder v.s Thunder”. ( a movie perhaps!!)
Ironically I liked their off season moves because of Davis!s knack of always getting hurt, and then Ellis goes down. Pretty good defensively up front with Biedrens, Turiaf and S.Jackson ; and if M.Williams surprises a little, could get 8th seed in west.
The thing about this team is that they have a number of good players, but the team doesn’t look organized. It’s like they were just throwing players on the roster hoping it sticks. Every team should be built with an established PG and PF, which they really lack, now with Baron Davis gone!!
Pete, you mentioned trading Maggette for Davis basically but I look at it as Davis for Maggette, Turiaf and Azuibuke. I don!t know their cap situation as the year ended but could they have resigned Beidrens and Ellis if Davis got his, would like to here your thoughts on that, thanks.
Seems pretty safe to say G-State won’t be making the playoffs this year, I’d be shocked if they did. That said, I think this team is going to be one of the up and comers for the future, due to their frontcourt.
Biedriens: I really think this guy is one of the most severely underrated players in the NBA. Despite being one of many victims of Don Nelson’s totally illogical playing rotations, and yanking people in and out of lineups and a random moments notice, Biedrins has remained rock steady throughout his career. It’s pretty impressive to average a near double double in only 27 mph. Unlike other European big’s, he’s VERY feisty, physical, and active, and I’m sure will spend more time adding muscle to his frame. Solid individual and team defense, plus can block shots, and no matter how few shots you take, shooting 60% FG is impressive. He’s young, has always been extremely productive in limited minutes…when he gets his deserved 32-34 minutes a game Biedrins is really going to open some eyes.
-Brandon Wright: Left college way too early…but in that time he proved that he was a legit back to the basket post scorer. I think it’s safe to say no one knows his ceiling or what he’s truly capable of blossoming into, but all I know is in today’s game it’s extremely rare to have a 6’10 forward with actual old school post man footwork that comes naturally. He could really be a nice 1-2 punch with Biedrins one day. He could rebound a bit better though.
-Anthony Randolph: I LOVE THIS KID!!! A lot of people here probably got sick of me ranting and raving about this guy during Sixers mock draft periods, but I will hold to it! I see Randolph as a more talented Tayshaun Prince of PF’s. He is a BEAST of a shotblocker from the weak and strong sides; his basketball IQ is phenominal, he has a very surprising good post game and footwork (even a nice little baby hook) given his thinframe; can regularly hit a 8-12 foot jumpshot; very tough, full of energy, and active; moves without the ball well; and by all accounts he works his a** off to improve his game.
I think they will eventually find a taker for Al Harrington’s contract to trade for some picks and a good bench guard, shift Randolph to a very big and versatile SF, and go extremely big with a 6’10 Randolph at SF, 6’11 Wright at PF, and 6’11 Biedrins at C, with M Ellis and Maggette as the backcourt in the future.
Last prediction: Marcus Williams, while not exactly Mr. Great Attitude and a pretty crappy defender, is an assist machine and knows how to run an offense. I don’t love his game, but he does have a lot of options to feed the ball too. He really impressed me back at UConn with his floor leadership abilities, finding guys in the right spots, and making great decisions while driving the lane. And learning tricks from J-Kidd for two years is a nice little bonus for anyone’s game. I can see him getting 7.5 assists given Monte’s injury…I think he will really surprise some people until Monte comes back. I can see them going with Marcus at the 1 and Monte at the 2 once healthy again as a different look.
Dave T, if they do head in that direction, then the Warriors are certainly going to be in a rebuilding mode. And yes, Al Harrington, will be a big trading chip for them. I hear something about the Pacers and the Warriors on a possible deal involving Tinsley for Harrington (other players will be added on both teams to make the trade work). That is the latest thing I’ve been hearing. Then again, nothing is official yet.
Suede – Yes, they could have resigned Ellis and Biendrins and have retained Baron Davis. Remember Davis opting out of $17.8M in 2009 blind-sided the Warriors. The plan was to keep all the core guys and be willing to part with Pietrus and possibly Azubuize.
You can always retain your restricted players, and you can go over the cap to resign current players. The Warriors would have done the same thing the Sixers did. Sign Turiaf first while you are under the cap, then resign davis, then your restricted players.
Assuming the same Ellis, Biedrins, Azubuike and Turiaf contracts and no Corey Maggettee or Marcus Williams…
If Baron stayed at his previous rate ($17.8M this year) the Warriors salary would have been – $70,891,429
If Baron opted out and resigned with the Warriors for the same deal he just did with the Clippers ($11.25M this year) they would have been at – $64,341,429
The Warriors current salary is – $62,629,811
This years salary cap is: $58.68 million
This years luxury tax line is: $71.150 million
They would have been over the cap in every scenario and just under the luxury tax line in one.