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Phoenix Suns
2007-08 Record: 55-27
Cool 2007 Stat: The best shooting season ever? Steve Nash became the first player ever to shoot 50% from the field, 47% from three and 90% from the foul line.
Anticipated Starting Five
PG- Steve Nash
SG- Raja Bell
SF- Grant Hill
PF- Amare Stoudemire
C- Shaquille O’Neal
Key Reserves: Leandro Barbosa, Matt Barnes, Boris Diaw, Robin Lopez
Biggest Strength – Inside/Outside Scoring
Phoenix presents one of the best inside-outside offensive games in the NBA. Their starting front-court (Shaq and Amare) is big and shot a combined 59.3% from the field last season, and I don’t see that changing much this year either. Shaq can still score and shoot a high percentage when he gets touches in the post. If new coach Terry Porter regulates his minutes, he could still be dominant (scoring or passing out of double teams) for short bursts during games. Amare brings a more versatile game offensively and is even more efficient when you factor in his 80% free throw shooting. Combine those two beasts down low with the 47% (Nash), 40% (Bell) and 39% (Barbosa) three-point shooters on the perimeter, and that makes for very some difficult match-ups and defensive decisions for opposing teams.
Biggest Weakness – Age
Specifically, age at the two most important positions in basketball: point guard and center. Steve Nash is 34-years-old and will be 35 next February. He hasn’t shown much sign of slowing down on the offensive end (evidenced by his 2007 cool stat above), but that isn’t my concern with him or this team. Will he be able to hold his own against the guys he’ll likely face in the post-season (Parker, Williams, Paul)? We saw how Paul attacked and destroyed an elderly Jason Kidd last playoffs. Kidd, at least, was once known for his defense; Nash has never been, and he is reaching retirement age.
Shaq is 36-years-old, turning 37 next March. Can he play the games necessary (at least 70) to get this team in the playoffs with a decent seed? He hasn’t played more than 61 games in 4 years. Phoenix’s training staff has shown they can do wonders, but I doubt they turn back the clock on the 36-year-old, 7′ 1″, 320+ pound “Big Daddy.” What’s worse: teams will force Phoenix’s big, slow, aging center and their weak defensive, elderly point guard into countless pick-and-roll situations. Not looking good for the Suns.
Key Player in ’08 – Amare Stoudemire
Can Steve Nash adjust to a new system? Can Shaq actually get in shape, stay healthy and contribute? These are the first 2 questions that popped into my mind when thinking of the Suns, but then I realized I was pretty sure of the answers. Yes, Nash can. No, Shaq won’t. The Key player, i.e., the player that can make the Suns a legit contender and not a barely-out-of-the-lottery squad is Amare. As with many straight from H.S. players, we forget how young they still are. Amare is only 25, and was 3rd in the NBA in PER last year, behind only LeBron and Chris Paul. With Mike D’Antoni’s run-and-gun system now in NYC, this is the year that this should become Amare’s team, not Steve Nash’s. Whether or not Amare can take that responsibility will play a big role in the Suns’ success this year.
Their Thaddeus (exciting player 22 or under) – Goran Dragic, 22
Yes, the Goran Dragic. If you are a Suns’ fan, you know that they don’t really like rookies (or more accurately, paying them) as shown by them passing up Andre Iguodala and Rajon Rondo in recent drafts in exchange for cash. That leaves Dragic and the recently acquired Sean Singletary as the only two players who fit into this category. Dragic (6′4”, PG) was a 2008 2nd round draft pick and averaged 9.7 pts, 3.1 apg, 2.9 rpg and 1.2 spg for Slovenia in Eurobasket 2007. Some think he’ll have to impress to gain some minutes; others think he’ll be Nash’s primary back-up.
Pete’s 2008 Outlook: 2nd place, Pacific division / 7th place, Western conference / 13th place, NBA
The Suns should have made the finals in 2007 but were derailed by a terrible cut man and a cowardly cheap shot by Robert Horry (and subsequent idiotic suspensions of Amare and Boris Diaw). Last year, they overreacted and traded Shawn Marion to the Heat for 2 years and $40 million of Shaq. This year, they look like a team on the decline. Steve Nash is going to will this team into the playoffs, but unless Amare Stoudamire becomes an MVP candidate, they will not be much more than a low seed.
Dannie’s 2008 Outlook: 2nd place, Pacific division / 7th place, Western conference / 12th place, NBA
The Suns have far too many big unanswered questions surrounding the team for them to do any better than they did last year. A first round playoff exit. Pete already mentioned one of these questions regarding Shaq’s health and contribution. Can Steve Nash perform at that high of a level again? It took a phenomenal season from Nash just to finish 6th in the Western Conference last year anyway. Was that a product of the late season trade or simply what we should expect going forward? How will everyone respond to a new coach who has a more traditional style and is defensive-minded? Even if healthy, will Shaq ever fit in with the other core players on this team? If Shaq gets hurt, will Robin Lopez be ready to contribute to a good team as a rookie? Can Amare be the dominant player on both sides of the ball that he needs to be in order for this team to get out of the first round? I think the answer is going to be “no” for too many of those questions, making it tougher to compete consistently in a tough conference and improved NBA as a whole.
Philly Connection: Raja Bell
Bell only averaged 3ppg in 79 games for the Sixers but was a big part of the 2001 playoff run (including his ridiculous scoop shot in Game 1 of the Finals) and a fan favorite. Like many Sixers fans, I was never really sure why we just let him go. Now? Bell has averaged over 10 ppg for the last 5 years, has turned himself into one of the best 3-point shooters in the league and is a lock-down defender. He had his best season for the Suns in 05-06, when he averaged 14.7 ppg and shot 44.2% from 3-pt range.
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For the Suns, it’s not just age that is their weakness, it is also:
1) lack of three point shooters (it hasn’t been the same since the 04-05 season)
2) no real defensive plan
No 3 pt shooters? Did you read the post? Those stats look pretty good to me…thats what I thought the Suns whole system is based on (drive and kick) and why they have been successful the past few years.
Great post. Good info. I think the last 2 spots in the west are a toss up. Hard to call. Its going to be Dallas, Denver and Phoenix making a push…I wouldn’t be at all suprised if the Suns are the ones on vacation early. Nash, Kidd and Denver’s roster at the all-star break will be the deciding factors.
@Rob – We aren’t listing every weakness only what we think is the “Biggest Weakness.” And Phoenix was first in three-point % and 4th in made threes per game last season. So three point shooting is a very big strength for this team. Phoenix shot 39% from three in ‘08 and ‘05 leading the league both seasons.
Can’t speculate on their “defensive plan” considering they went from a offensive-minded coach to a defensive-minded guy in Terry Porter.
I am a big R.Lopez fan and wish we got him in the draft, he is a perfect compliment to Shaq or Amare, in my opinion. I also like T.Porter as a coach. I think they take a step back record wise but will be better come playoff time because of the change in coaching [defense] and Lopez [defense] again. They have to cut Nashes minutes a bit, similarly to what we have to do with A.Miller, but who takes their backup p.g. minutes [Singletary ?] could be a key for them.i
I think you guys might be selling Amare short. After Shaq joined him in Phoenix, Amare was arguably the best player in the NBA. Remember that series against San Antonio a few years ago where he averaged something absurd like 40 and 15? Against the Spurs? The surgery and Phoenix’s chemistry issues slowed him down last season, but he was dominant with Shaq by his side. I think you have to include him in the MVP discussion. Despite all that, I can’t really see Phoenix getting out of the second round.
Raro how are we selling Amare short? He is our key player to the team’s success and we both think he is a beast and capable of playing MVP caliber ball. But the knock on him has always been his individual defense. Unable to get stops inside when his team really needs them.
That includes the series you are referring to. Sure he was 39-9.8-1.6(blocks) in that series. On the flip side Duncan was 27.4-13.8-1.8 in that series as well. More importantly watching the games, and looking at the final winning margins (7-3-10-5-6) it’s clear the difference in those games became stops both against his own man and in help situations. Not more buckets and that is something he hasn’t proved he can do against the better big men most notably Tim Duncan. Which is part of the reason they have lost to that Spurs team so many times in the playoffs handily.
I like Amare, but most championship teams have at least one player who dominates the game on both ends (Duncan, Sheed, Shaq, Hakeem, Jordan, KG/Pierce and the list goes on and on). The NBA is filled with guys that can fill the offensive stat sheet, those guys don’t seem to win that many rings.
As usual the suns will run out of gas. Shaq was ineffective, screwed up the chemistry and slowed their game down. They were 18-11 with him, pretty good, not good enough for the Western Conference where 9 teams try to squeeze into 8 spots. This year it will be even tighter with Portland in the mix. They’ll make the playoffs only because of Amare and the fact that the Nuggets and the Warriors will be nose-diving
You guys are right about his defense, but do you think the Suns new “defense first” approach will have a positive effect? Also, with Shaq at Center, he does not need to guard the other team’s Tim Duncan. I guess what I’m getting at is the fact that he was better than both Paul and Lebron after the All-Star break, meaning best player in the league. Would you guys put him on a top 5 NBA players list? I’m a big fan of Amare in case you couldn’t tell:)
Since the Shaq trade, the 3pt shooting has not been the same for the Suns. In the starting lineup, only Bell and Nash hit it with regularity. Grant Hill is a mid range shooter. Other than Barbosa for the bench can really hit the 3pt shooter, but he is more of a slasher than anything else. All in all, the Suns will be 2nd in the Pacific Division and 6th in the West. Since the trade, they have fallen from contenders to pretenders (in the West). Now, they will still prey heavily on the East, but that’s it. Even that will be a bit difficult for them.
Side note: The Sixers will split the season with the Suns. (1-1). Each team winning on their home floor. But I do pray for a repeat performance from Iggy like he did last season in Phoenix. Then a sweep can be looming.
Overall, Sixers v.s Suns (1-1)
Yeah, why did we let Raja Bell go?
The Liberty Bell is tough enough to maintain.
@Rob
What happened: they traded Marion who was only a 34.7% three point shooter who took 3.5 attempts per game (167 total in 47 games with the Suns). Grant Hill only took 107 total for the season (70 games). There was a shift in who was taking the three-point shots. Marion’s attempts went to better shooters like Raja, Nash and Barbosa because Hill wasn’t jacking that many up (1.5 per game).
Make sense?
jjg: (rim shot).
Dannie: Addition by subtraction. The is the net effect of swapping AI2 for Green at SG.
Morty, defensively better, yes; offensively ? Thad or Willie on the perimeter, a work in progress but not a big improvement yet. I just hope Thad can hit the 15 footer consistantly. As far as Amari!s defense, an N.B.A. broadcaster was quoted last year on the Jody Mac show as saying he was the “worst” fundamental interior defender he ever saw, that is another reason the Shaq trade was made.
Dannie, I know the numbers say so. You are right about that. Maybe it’s just me, but I feel like their three point shooting doesn’t feel the same as in years past, in terms of hitting it with regularity.
suede: If Andre can’t be better than Green on offense, he will have taken a huge step backwards.
Morty, its more Thad or Willie, Iggy will be doing similar things to last year. Thad will need to play facing the basket, unlike last year, he is gonna need time to experiment a bit, that!s all I!m saying.
Suede – I disagree that having Thad on the court wouldn’t be a big improvement offensively. Again we are talking addition by subtraction as Morty said.
No matter how you look at it, Young will be a more efficient scorer than Green, as long as he doesn’t try to do too much (i.e. erratic and turning the ball over). Last season Thad took 6.6 attempts per game and shot 54.5% eFG%. If you extrapolate those numbers out to 36-minutes per game Young would take 11.4 shots per game, and give you 14ppg and 7 boards. You lose nothing from the 3pt. line because Green shot horribly from beyond. How is that not a HUGE improvement?
As for him facing up, do you really think plays are going to be run for Young all that much with the addition of Brand, AI2 still in the line-up and Miller still having an advantage in the post against smaller point guards? Maybe a little but I can’t imagine very often unless he has a distinct advantage against his defender. I see him playing the same role he did last season offensively. Basically an opportunistic scorer in the half court (offensive boards, back door lobs etc.) and getting many points in transition.
Just my expectation for Young this season.
Dannie, I thought Thad got most of his points 10 ft. and in last year, and with Iggy hopefully driving it more this year I just don!t see room in the lane for Elton, Sam and Thad. I think he will get most of his looks from the corner this year and though I did like his last month or so of looking more for the jumper I just think it is not cut and dried that we will be better OFFENSIVELY with Thad rather than L.Will. or Willie next year, though in a year or two, when he matures, we could be scary.
Suede – The difference in opinion at least in my mind is you think Willie Green provides some sort of value offensively, where I do not – very little (JJG is going to get at me for that comment I am sure). Eliminating and replacing him with a perceived better player is as close to cut and dry as it gets for me. Lou Williams is a different argument all together.
Further, where do you see Green getting shots with Brand in the post and both the Andre’s scoring mid-range and in? Willie Green is a very similar player as Iguodala offensively, in that he isn’t a great perimeter shooter and is best driving to the basket. So doesn’t your point about how Young would score surrounded by those other players hold true if Green is in the line-up as well? Do you really want Willie Green taking more perimeter jump shots as the spot up guy? I actually think Young shot the 15-18 foot jumper just fine.
Also, as you said it isn’t as cut and dry. You are omitting the benefit Young brings on the offensive boards scoring and defensive boards starting the break.
Quick comment before work – guys take rebounds from each other, with Brand in, Thad will rebound less. suede, good question – does Thad play better given more minutes? Willlie sure looked good when he was given fewer minutes his first couple of seasons.
Dannie, I brought Willie up because he started last year but my main point is the way the roster is constituted we have depth at 2 guard [ Iggy, L.Will., Rush and Willie and are thin at 3 with Thad and Iggy. It would not surprise me with the timetable moved up to win now that L.Will. and Iggy are out there more than Thad and Iggy because the addition of Elton defensively may allow Mo to go with a better offensive team to start and bring Thad along gradually.
Zack – Forget, player names, are you saying the small forward position isn’t capable of averaging 7 rebounds per game because there is a good front court? Back to the Sixers, Thad is a very good rebounder using his activity to sneak in for offensive boards and aggressively going after defense boards. That’s not going to change, in fact with him having a year of NBA training under his belt and working on his strength and body I see him only becoming a better rebounder.
Also, why are you assuming Thad is the player that will lose rebounds, or at least be affected the most? To me it makes more sense and is more likely that Brand and Thad take rebounds away from Iguodala and Reggie Evans, with this new line-up and adjustment in who gets the most minutes.
Suede – I would be surprised, especially if the mantra is defense wins championships. Also, if the way the team is going to play or their identity is going to be defense, forcing turnovers and easy transition baskets, I think Thad and Iguodala is the best line for that system. The difference this year is when we can’t force those turnovers or get out and run, we are no longer stuck struggling in the half court. Brand fills that hole in the paint. But also, Brand will help with the fast breaking as well with his defense and rebounding.
Also, I think Marshall plays at the small forward position as well, so there is a little more depth there than just AI2 and Thad. Having another veteran on the court would be a good thing.
Oh and Zack, I don’t remember Willie Green ever looking “good.” His first two seasons were his worst shooting seasons from the field easily. He’s actually gotten better – slightly. Less minutes for him must means less bad play for you to see, which seems like it looks good. His negative impact will just be minimized with less minutes. He just shots a lot for the minutes he plays and doesn’t pass at all for a guard.
Dannie, I’m with the majority who thinks that overall, Willie actually causes you to lose games, but I remember some clamor early in his career for him to get more playing time. Remember when O’Brien said that he didn’t play Willie and AI together because the numbers said not to, and there was a fan reaction to that, like “to hell with the numbers”?
About Thad getting less rebounds, forget the numbers – does he average less rebounds with a good frontcourt than he did last year? I think the answer’s in your question – he’s no longer in the frontcourt. He played mostly PF last year, and defended PFs, so he was often in prime position for rebounds. I think that what he did as a PF last year was nothing exceptional in terms of rebounding, he did what he was he supposed to do. I actually think that if they hadn’t gotten Brand, it wouldn’t have been the end of the world to have Thad continue to play PF, since he doesn’t get outrebounded by bigger, stronger PFs. Like you said, he’s great at “sneak”-ing in for those boards. With Brand, I think we lose one of the more exciting parts of last season – Thad running the break, leaving your typical power forward in the dust. Do you see the Richard Jeffersons and the Kevin Durants of the world having trouble getting back on defense with Thad on the wing? I don’t.
For me, a lot is in Mo Cheeks’ hands – as our SF, will he be asked to rebound as much as he did when he was our PF? He’ll be bigger and stronger than most SFs, so if he’s battling for a rebound against your average NBA SF, he’ll get them. But will his role change now that he’ll no longer be asked to play a lot of PF? You can tell me here – you’ve played basketball, what are some philosophies and strategies regarding rebounding? Do you ask your SF to help rebound all the time, or do you ask him to get back on D after a miss?
Dannie, I hate to repeat myself, so do unto others… If you’ve discussed this topic before, let me know where, so I can find out how you feel about Thad moving to the SF role. For the sake of bski’s sanity, I’ve been trying to focus on the Phils… But don’t get me wrong, I like my conversations with bski a lot.
How’s “Tip-Off”? And, here’s a “YOU LUCKY BASTARD!” for you, for snagging those those nice seats at the Eagles game.
Isn’t this supposed to be about the Suns?? Bring on the season, or at least preseason.
For clarity’s sake, last year was, by far, Green’s best year in the league. And you can look it up!
Zack – Check out this link for some info about the book Tip-Off.
Morty is right this post is suppose to be about the Phoenix Suns. I will save my comments about Thad at SF for the Sixers preview or a dedicated post.
I’m excited to see how the defense will look with Terry Porter, and how much playing time will go to the defenders (i.e. Bell, Barnes, Lopez, Dragic, and Strawberry). The scary thing is that this team has a 2-year window, after which Shaq, Nash, and Amare will probably be gone, and Seattle has Phoenix’s 2010 draft pick (with the Kurt Thomas “trade”). So if the team doesn’t go deep in the playoffs this year, I’d want to blow the team up and clear cap space for the magical summer of 2010, but the Seattle pick almost makes this impossible.
Jake-
Strawberry got traded for Sean Singletary (for no apparent reason)
I’m guessing Singletary and Dragic will split time as Nash’s backup. Strawberry is a great athlete, but I don’t know if he has NBA-level skills.
The Suns have a first round pick next year… 2009. They just picked up Robin Lopez, Goran Dragic, Sean Singletary, and Matt Barnes. Hopefully, Barnes will resign if Phx has the money to pay him, which they may have with Grant Hill coming off the books. So, they have this young crop to work with plus, we shall see how Alando Tucker pans out… D’nuts (D’Antoni) chose to bench this guy. D’nuts also seldom used Brian Skinner as a defensive replacement. I am hoping it is not the same w/ coach Porter, so that Alando can get a chance to prove himself. He can shoot the ball. He is still only going to get limited minutes behind Barbosa and Bell unless they trade one of those guys. Amare is 25. So, I don’t think it is doom and gloom for Phx in the upcoming years… So, with these guys and hopefully a decent 1st round draft pick next year (even if it is the 30th pick) the Suns can have some optimism.