2008-09 NBA Preview: San Antonio Spurs

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San Antonio Spurs

2007-08 Record: 56-26

Cool 2007 Stat: Big Shot Bob? There are only 5 players in the NBA who have logged 10,000 minutes this decade and shot under 40% from the field over that stretch. They are – 5′10” Damon Stoudemire (.399), 6′2” Rafer Alston (.388), 6′3” Jamaal Tinsley (.395), 6′6” Quentin Richardson (.398) and the 6′10” Robert Horry (.389).

Anticipated Starting Five

PG- Tony Parker
SG- Manu Ginobili
SF- Bruce Bowen
PF- Tim Duncan
C- Fabricio Oberto

Bench: Michael Finley, Kurt Thomas, Ime Udoka, Matt Bonner, George Hill, Roger Mason

Biggest Strength – Defense

More of the scoring load has been passed from Tim Duncan (scored under 20 ppg for only the 2nd time in his career) on to Tony Parker and Manu Ginobili, but the one thing that hasn’t changed over the years has been the what this team does on the defensive end.  In fact I think the Spurs benefit when Duncan isn’t asked to score 30+ points because he focuses in more on his defense and rebounding.  This team only allowed 44% of opponents’ field goals last season (5th in the NBA), and they also had the second best points per shot on defense as well.  This is what keeps them in title contention every year.

Biggest Weakness – Father time

Is the Spurs dynasty coming to an end?  When you look at the players expected to play the bulk of the minutes and asked to shoulder much of the burden to produce, it’s clear this team is on the wrong side of 30.  Here are the ages of the top 10 players on the Spurs roster.

1. Tony Parker – 26
2. Manu Ginobili -31
3. Bruce Bowen -37
4. Tim Duncan -32
5. Fabricio Oberto -33
6. Michael Finley – 35
7. Kurt Thomas – 36
8. Ime Udoka – 30
9. Roger Mason – 28
10. Jacque Vaughn – 33

Two players under 31 has me wondering if we should expect a decline in production from this squad.  At 37 can Bowen continue to be the type of versatile defender the Spurs need him to be?  Looking at the West I think the gap between this veteran champion and the younger developing teams will be closed this year.

Key Player in ’08 – Manu Ginobili

Manu Ginobili led the Spurs in scoring last year off the bench, and this year, his play is going to determine how well the Spurs do. There are no unknowns on this team. They are a veteran squad with Mr. Consistency, Tim Duncan, at its heart. Ginobili, however, is a very hot and cold player. When’s he hot, the Spurs are darn near unbeatable, and when he’s cold, they can look average. Ginobili has to lead this team in scoring again, but do it not in the “spark off the bench” mode but rather a consistent leader mode.

Their Thaddeus (exciting player 22 or under) – Malik Hairston, 21

Like the Rockets, the Spurs are a veteran team with virtually no exciting young players on the team. Hairston was their draft pick this year out of Oregon and has the athleticism to make something of himself in this league. Hariston was the biggest basketball recruit in Ducks history. Rivals.com had him as the 7th best player in the 2004 HS class, 5 of the 6 players ahead of him entered the draft out of high school, and the only player that didn’t was Rudy Gay. However, Hairston didn’t quite live up to expectations at Oregon. He wasn’t bad, but he never really dominated. He’s got the talent to be a rotation player, but it will be tough to crack this veteran squad anytime soon.

Pete’s 2008 Outlook: 3rd place, Southwest division / 5th place, Western conference / 7th place, NBA

I usually make the mistake of thinking (hoping) that this will be the year that Spurs drop down a peg. They are extremely boring to watch, constantly complain about calls, and have single-handedly made flopping an issue in the NBA. This year, I’ve learned that you can’t always get what you wish for. They have arguably the greatest PF of all-time in Tim Duncan and one of the best guards in the league in Tony Parker. Popavich is a great coach, and he will get the most out of this squad, who will be a tough out in the playoffs.

Dannie’s 2008 Outlook: 3rd place, Southwest division / 6th place, Western conference / 11th place, NBA

This team won’t drop significantly, but I think their age will show much more than it has to this point.  They have done nothing to get younger, faster or more athletic.  That doesn’t worry me so much on the offensive end because they still have Duncan, Parker and Ginobili.  But will they be able to keep up the kind of defense necessary to be that tough out in the playoffs?  Father time hits everyone and this team has a lot more players than their opponents in the West who are susceptible to age being a major factor in terms of lingering injuries and the natural down swing in production.

Philly Connection: Bruce Bowen

Bowen is the perfect example of the fact that there are tons of players that are not in the NBA that could be if they find the perfect team and system for them. Bowen played on 4 different teams before landing with the Spurs in 2001. He played 42 games for the Sixers in 1999-00, mostly in garbage time. It’s shocking to me that a player of his defensive caliber couldn’t find a role on a Larry Brown team. Since he’s been on the Spurs, he’s been arguably the best man-to-man defender in the NBA. I personally can’t stand him because of his cheap shot techniques, but he’s on the Spurs, what do you expect?

October 20, 2008