Entries from May 2008 ↓

The Phillies might talk long-term deal with Hamels down the road. But, the Phillies general manager said, “right now, it isn’t going to happen.” Gillick said he is wary of giving out long-term deals, particularly one like the Brewers gave Braun. “If at some point, if [Hamels is] performing to the level, you’re going to have to talk multiyear at some point,” Gillick said. “These guys, maybe they are smarter giving guys 8-year deals. I don’t know.”

The baseball contract world is a tricky one. For your first 3 years in the league, you are at the mercy of your team. They designate your salary, and you take what they give you. Doesn’t matter if you won the MVP (Ryan Howard in 2006) or Cy Young (Barry Zito in 2002) - you take what they give you. Once you’ve had more than 3 years, but less than 6 years, service in the league, you are eligible for arbitration. This means you either come to terms on a 1-year contract with your team, or, you reject their offers and take them to arbitration, where you can present your case for more money. The exception to this is called a “super 2″ player, who has 2 years and change of service, and is a good player. Ryan Howard fell into that category this year and was granted arbitration. Once you have 6 years of service in the league, you become a free agent.

Ryan Howard is locked in to the Phillies for 2009 and 2010. He will be a free agent in the Winter of 2010.

Cole Hamels is locked in for 2009, 2010, 2011 and 2012. He will be a free agent in the Winter of 2012.

There has been a trend this year of teams bypassing this entire process and signing the players to long term deals very early on. The Rockies signed Troy Tulowitzki, in his 2nd year, to a 6-year deal. The Brewers signed Ryan Braun, in his 2nd year, to an 8-year deal. The Rays signed Evan Longoria, in his 6th GAME, to a six-year contract with options for 3 more years. So what is the benefit of these types of contracts? The logic by the teams is that you are adding a year or two onto the amount of time you have control over a player, and assuming they play as well as you think, the contract wouldn’t be for much more than if you were paying year by year with arbitration anyway. From the players perspective, you are guarding yourself against injury or poor play, and getting guaranteed money, kind of like getting your arbitration ahead of time and eliminating the need to play well for it.

There is risk on both sides as well. From a teams perspective, you are locked in, and if the player gets hurt, and struggles once the league adjusts to them, you are overpaying for a player you didn’t even have to pay to start with. From a player’s perspective, if you continue to improve, you will likely be underpaid in the later years of the contract, and by delaying your entrance into true free agency, you might be costing yourself a lot of money.

The Phillies have had situations like this recently where they didn’t want to let their homegrown talent hit free agency.

Chase Utley signed a 7 year, $85 million deal after 3 years in the league. This took care of his 3 arbitration years, and first 4 years of free agency

Jimmy Rollins signed a 6 year, $46.5 million deal after 4.5 years in the league. This took care of 2 arbitration years, and the first 4 years of free agency

Brett Myers signed a 3 year, $25.75 million deal after 4.5 years in the league. This took care of 2 arbitration years, and his first year of free agency

So, given the level of control they have, the league-wide trends, and the history of signing their own players, what should the Phillies do with Howard and Hamels? Here is what I think the answer is.

Ryan Howard - Offer him a 6 year, $80 million extension right now. Include escalator clauses for MVP/All-Star/Silver Slugger’s that could bring the value up to $85-90 million. This is more than you gave Utley (who is the better player) but less than he wants. Howard thinks he deserves Miguel Cabrera type money (8 years, $150 million), which is just ridiculous. He is 3.5 years older, strikes out at a historic level and his defense has somehow declined since his rookie year. Honestly, I believe Howard is a slightly better version of Adam Dunn, which isn’t bad at all, it’s just not $150 million good. My proposed contract would give him a $13-$15 million a year salary, take care of 2 arbitration years, and 4 free agency years. From Howard’s perspective, it will eliminate the risk of him hitting the FA market after 2010, (at age 31) and finding out no one wants to give anyone that old, and injury prone (historically, people his size don’t hold up) a long term deal of any kind. For the Phillies, it keeps Howard, Utley and Rollins together through their primes. 6 year, 80 million. It’s a fair deal. Howard needs to understand that when he hits the market in 2010, there is no one who will give a 31-year old player who owns the top-3 single-season strikeout marks (by that point, he will) $150 million.

Cole Hamels - Hamels is a wait and see. Yes, there have been all of these early-bird contracts signed, but ALL of them have been position players. Starting pitchers are far too risky to lock up to long-term deals, especially when you have them under your control for 4 more years. If Hamels continues to pitch well this year and next, I would sign him at the same time you did Utley, before his arbitration years. Give him $10 million for each of his arbitration years, and then $15 for the next 3 with a team option for the 7th year. Round up and you get a 6 year, $75 million extension. He gets his guaranteed money early so it doesn’t matter if he gets injured, and the Phillies take a risk with a long-term deal for a pitcher, but do so with the best pitcher to come up through their system since Robin Roberts (Carlton came up through the Cardinals system, Schilling through the Orioles, Bunning through the Tigers). Maybe you wait another year, give him one year of arbitration and really get comfortable with his durability, but the longer you wait, you bigger the deal is going to have to be.

Who knows if either of these guys would accept those deals, but I think that is what the Phillies strategy should be. What do you think? Be the GM, when (if at all) should we extend them, and how much do you think they are worth?

In the off-season, the Phillies couldn’t engage in talks for big name pitchers like Dan Haren or Johan Santana or even medium name pitchers like Joe Blanton or Jon Garland because of their lack of elite minor league talent.

Going into the season, they had only 2 top-100 prospects in RHP Carlos Carrasco and LHP Joe Savery. However, a quarter of the way through the season, the Phillies’ minor league system has seen several new names and some old names either emerge or step up their game and show that our farm system might be better off than we thought.

So that there is some baseline to the numbers you are about to see, here are the same numbers for some recent Phillies top prospects in the minors for their last year in the minors.

New Guys

Drew Naylor, RHP, 6′4” 210, Lakewood (A), Age: 21

The best indicator of future success for a minor league pitcher is their strikeout rate. If you can’t make minor leaguers miss, you certainly won’t make major leaguers miss. Naylor is one of three Phillies minor leaguers in the top-5 in strikeouts across the entire MiLB. In fact, Naylor is currently #1 after striking out 12 in his last outing. He has 13 more K’s than anyone in his league and is 6th in ERA and 3rd in WHIP. His fastball isn’t dominating, but he has good control and above average breaking pitches (curve and change-up). He will likely be promoted to A-Adv. soon, it will be interesting to see if he can keep his strikeout lead up there.

Antonio Bastardo, LHP, 5′11” 160, Reading (AA), Age: 22

Get the jokes about his name out of the way, this kid can pitch. He’s already been promoted once this season and his K/9 rate is the best our organization has seen from a starter since Cole Hamels. Like Naylor, he is also in the top-5 in K’s in the MiLB. Bastardo is not as good as Hamels, but he has made dramatic improvements this season. He is paper-thin and like Hamels, he strikes out most people on his change-up. He was a little old to be starting the year in A-Adv, but can make up for it with a strong rest of the season in Reading.

Edgar Garcia, RHP, 6′2” 190, Clearwater (A-Adv), Age: 20

Garcia actually has the better stuff than Naylor or Bastardo but is still raw and there are some questions about his work ethic. Baseball America says that he has a low-90s fastball with a lot of life and has the make-up of a middle of the rotation starter. He gives up too many hits, but he is still very young and has plenty of time to improve his control.

Old Guys

Fabio Castro, LHP, 5′8” 157, Reading (AA), Age: 23

Castro has been both a starter and and reliever for Reading this year. The Phillies probably aren’t sure whether to peg him as a starter or a reliever because of his size and potential durability issues. He has already showed his potential on the Major League level with a 3.30 ERA in 43.2 IP. When he started for the Phillies, it was clear that he had good stuff, but needed to work on his location. He has more strikeouts than IP and a decent H/9 rate, but he still needs to work on his control. If he gets that together, he could be a decent starter.

J.A. Happ, LHP, 6′5” 205, Lehigh Valley (AAA), Age: 25

Happ made 1 start for the Phillies last year, and I would be shocked if he isn’t in the rotation in the next couple months. Happ was injured for much of last year, but has had a huge bounce back year. He is kind of similar to Randy Wolf in that he has a low-90s fastball that hitters have trouble picking up because of his deceptive motion. Unlike Wolf, his best breaking pitch is a change-up. His K/9 rate has always been around 9, but this year, he striking people out at the best rate of his minor league career. He should be up soon, the question is whether he will be replacing Adam Eaton, Kyle Kendrick or someone else in the rotation.

Hyped Guys

Josh Outman, LHP, 6′1” 180, Reading (AA), Age: 23

One of the strangest moves of the year had the Phillies moving Outman to the bullpen. Outman has been considered one of our better starter prospects for the last couple years. The Phillies have been looking for the LH reliever all year, and my guess is that they are going let Outman get his feet wet in that role this season, and then put him back to starting next year. Like Happ, Outman uses deception to his advantage and has a very impressive K/9 rate. Unlike Happ, he gives up a lot of hits and clearly needs to work on his control with that 1.58 WHIP.

Joe Savery, LHP, 6′3” 215, Clearwater (A-Adv), Age: 22

One of the Phillies 2 top prospects, the Phillies first round pick last year has had a decent first year in the minors. Savery has a solid fastball and an above average change-up and curve ball. He is currently letting up too many hits and has a high WHIP, but he is still in the transition phase from college to pro. To go along with his solid pitches, Savery has a great work ethic and won’t fall short of the majors due to lack of trying. He has the 2nd highest potential of any Phillies pitcher and will be watched very closely by the organization throughout the year.

Carlos Carrasco, RHP, 6′3” 178, Reading (AA), Age: 21

Despite being only 21, Carrasco has been the Phillies top prospect for the past couple years. He has 2 of the best pitches in the system; his 92-94 MPH fastball with great late movement and his plus change-up. He has been up and down so far this season, either dominating the compitition or giving up a bunch of hits. He is 2nd in the Eastern League in K’s, but, like many of these other pitchers, he needs to improve his control. Carrasco has the highest ceiling of any the Phillies pitchers, but the Phillies will not rush him to majors.

What this means

None of these guys have the “can’t miss” stuff that Hamels or say, a Tim Lincecum has, but these are 8 guys that have a decent chance to be contributors in our rotation (or atleast trade chips, without killing our system) in the future. All 8 won’t develop into ML Starters, but chances are a couple will within the next couple of years. There numbers look similar or better to all the previous top prospects (Myers, Wolf, etc.)with the exception of Hamels and many of the strike-out rates are very impressive. With the price of pitching as ridiculous as it is these days (see Eaton, Adam) the best way to build your team is through young pitching in your system. For the first time in awhile, the Phillies are looking like the might have more than couple guys who can fit that bill.

Haven’t posted in a few days, been busy working on some other online stuff, but I have read a bunch of 76ers-related articles lately that I thought I’d share to stir up some good Sixers talk.

Let’s kick this off with our friend over at Sixers 4 Guidos (love the new banner by the way, Ricky!). Ricky is doing a Sixer-by-Sixer 07/08 breakdown just as we are here on the Recliner. He has started with, in both our opinions, the team MVP, Andre Miller. Make sure you head over and check out a fellow Sixers blogger.

Hoopsworld wrote a very positive season In review of the Philadelphia 76ers. They give their team MVP, coaching analysis, top 5 highlights, lowlights, long-term prognosis, draft needs and free agent needs. For a season review it is pretty light and doesn’t have the emotion as you would get from a die hard 76ers fan writing the review, but still a good read.

Bob Ford wrote an “interesting” article discussing how this summer is the most important off-season in a decade for the 76ers. And although Ford has some nice points wrapped in sarcasm and wit, the best read of this article are the quotes for GM Ed Stefanski. Most notably:

Stefanski gently suggested that Iguodala is not a No. 1 option now and may never be. “Will he get there? I don’t know,” Stefanski said.

That quote is a very important one to keep in mind when talking about potential deals this off-season. Although Stefanski has also said “we have no intention of not matching any offer from another team,” regarding Louis Williams and Andre Iguodala, other comments also suggest he isn’t opposed to letting either of them go as well.

The Asbury Park Press has pretty much more of the same regarding the 76ers off-season moves. But here are two more Stefanski quotes that really stuck out to me.

“I think Andre Iguodala is a good fit for our team,” Stefanski said. “Is he the (No.) ‘1′ man on our team? He has to prove that, but I’ll take a lot of Andre Iguodalas on our team.”

Stefanski said the 76ers likely won’t go over the NBA’s luxury tax threshold, but the organization would pay the dollar-for-dollar penalty if they could find “a star who can turn us totally around.”

I think it’s pretty clear Stefanski agree with us fans that Iggy isn’t the go-to guy for the 76ers. More importantly it looks like we have a smart “do whatever it takes” GM that is fully backed by the Sixers organization and non-basketball-minded owner.

Everyone is very high on Thaddeus Young, Pete and I being two of his biggest promoters. The question remains what position will he play. I think we all agree he is a natural small forward. But that doesn’t necessarily mean that is where he will play next year depending on who Stefanski brings in here. How bout we just see what Young has to say about what position he wants and thinks he should play. His quotes are EXACTLY what I want to hear from him going into his first off-season.

Should The Sixers Match Any Offer To Re-Sign Andre Iguodala This Off-season? That is the argument CJ Mittica & Drew Silverman of The Bulletin are debating. Regardless of your own person preference on the question who do you think gave the most convincing argument?

Last but not least is an article from a regular reader of the blog Sixerzguy. It is always good to see what other teams are thinking and planning so here is a solid interview with the Houston Rockets GM Daryl Morey.

Enjoy.

About 20 games into the season, it looked as though the Sixers were headed for a high lottery pick and the only thing to look forward to was the off-season. It was at this point that I wrote an analysis of the team and how they could build towards being a championship contender. Here is an excerpt so you know how I did my analysis.

Everyone in the NBA is good, that’s why they are in the NBA, and there are 40-50 players not in the NBA that could thrive if put in the right situation. As a result, it’s hard to evaluate non-superstar players on an individual basis. The best way to do this, in my opinion, is to see if you could picture them being a productive member of a championship caliber team – in this year’s case, the San Antonio Spurs. Let’s look at where the current Sixers players would fit on a team like this…

Even though it might make more sense to use the Hornets, Lakers or Celtics as an example here, I’m going to stick with the Spurs, as they have still won 3 championships in 5 years, while those teams have combined for 0 in that span.

Starters

Andre Iguodala - Iguodala had a fantastic regular season. He made big shots, improved as the season went on, showed some leadership and also the ability to occasionally create his own shot. As I pointed out in my 30 teams, 30 stats post, “The only players to have Andre Iguodala’s season totals (1,600 points, 390 assists, 440 rebounds, 170 steals) at a younger age than Iggy are Michael Jordan, Julius Erving and LeBron James.” However, the playoffs showed what everyone already knew, and what I said at the start of the season: Iggy will never, ever be the #1 guy on a championship team. He scored 13 ppg, shot 33%, took horrible shots, forced shots in the lane, dropped passes, and was clearly trying way too hard to prove himself as a superstar on a big stage. He would be a starter and 2nd or 3rd option on a championship team, providing defense and highlight reel dunks, but he would get most of his points through the flow of the offense, not from taking his man one-on-one.

Andre Miller - Miller is no Tony Parker or Chris Paul, but he is an above average PG, who is fantastic at game management, makes the players around him better, and suddenly, at age 32, has become a pretty good scorer (17 ppg, 49% shooting this season, both career highs). He also showed he can play some D while helping shut down Chauncey Billups during the first 4 games of the playoffs. He could definitely be a starter on a championship team, especially with his improved shot, but like Iggy, he would likely be a 2nd or 3rd (probably 3rd) option on offense.

Samuel Dalembert - Dalembert put forth his best season as a Sixer this year. He joined Tim Duncan, Marcus Camby, Dwight Howard and Emeka Okafor as the only players in the Top-10 in both Rebounds and Blocks. He did this by staying on the floor and showing intensity. He averaged the most minutes of his career, and tied his lowest fouls per game number. But, the best part of his development was his newly found passion for the game. He did a lot more screaming, hustling and inspirational mohawk-ing than in years past. I originally had him on the bench because he doesn’t have a single viable offensive move. He scores on alley-oops, offensive rebounds and occasional foul line jumpers. But if you give it to him in the post, it will likely result in a bad pass (only 0.5 assists per game) or an ugly shot. However, he is similar to Tyson Chandler and I don’t think any player had more game-saving, clutch blocks (including 2 on Duncan vs. Spurs) than Sammy. So, provided the team has a PF who can score, he can start.

Rotation Guys

Lou Williams - The perfect 6th man. Williams is the best player on the team at getting to the basket and I have yet to see a defender who can stay in front of him. He was 2nd on the team in PPG per 48 minutes during the regular season (23.6) and led the team in PPG per 48 during the playoffs (25.6). He is high energy and reminds me a lot of Leandro Barbosa, only he doesn’t vanish in clutch situations. At 21, he is only going to get better.

Thaddeus Young - Everybody is in love with Thaddeus, and rightfully so. For now, he wouldn’t be starting because he is still raw, but the sky is the limit. I don’t think it would surprise people if he ends up as the 3rd best rookie is his class (behind Durant and Oden, and yes, better than Horford). He is unbelievably smooth and fluid with the ball, is a phenomenal offensive rebounder and has the makings of a very nice jump shot. He led the team in shooting % and was 2nd among rookies in efficiency. Sticking with the championship team theme - Young would be a great energy player right now but has the potential to develop (not NEXT year, people) into the best player on this team.

Reggie Evans - It’s not entirely clear that Evans knows he’s playing basketball, not football, but aside from his occasional stupid foul or bad shot, Evans is exactly the type of high-energy rebounding, defensive, tough force that you want on your squad. Think of him as a lesser version of Charles Oakley or Anthony Mason.

Jason Smith - In Smith’s case, by rotation guy, I mean that he would play 5-10 minutes when one of the bigs needed a rest. He has potential to be a very good reserve. He showed a knack for blocking shots and a very good mid-range jumper. He needs to develop and learn a bit more before I would consider him a 20-25 minutes reserve guy.

Buried on the Bench

Willie Green - Green had his moments this year, and he played better during the second half of the year, but I still stand by what I said about him at the beginning of the year.

Has the skill to be a Devin Brown-type flash off the bench, but will occasionally (frequently) take horrible, momentum killing shots. He drives me absolutely crazy.

Green is good at hitting open jump shots, and if he kept his game to that, I would put him in my rotation. But, he trying to take it to the hole too much and ends up doing more bad than good. He needs to work on his defense and his 3-point shot and become a niche player.

Rodney Carney - I’m happy that Rodney came on in the second half of the year, and too be honest, he really didn’t play enough minutes for me to feel comfortable about my assessment of him. But, picturing him in a Spurs uniform, I think he is too streaky and mistake prone to crack a championship line-up.

What suit should I wear?

Calvin Booth, Kevin Ollie, Louis Admunson and Shavlik Randolph

So what can the Sixers do in the off-season to take the next step? They have cap space, they have a 1st rounder as well as the pick they got from Utah next year they can use in a trade. These are the questions that Sixers fans will be discussing this off-season.

1. What to do with Andre Miller - Miller has one year remaining on his contract. He’s 32, and he just had the best season of his career. The question is this: Do you trade him while his stock is as high as it will ever be? or… Do you extend him a couple of years andbuild around him? Personally, I think that you extend him. PG’s are not easy to come by, and the way this team plays, they NEED a PG that can distribute and get everyone involved. Miller does not rely on athleticism, so his game is not going to deteriorate as he gets older. I don’t think Lou Williams is the answer at point, he plays much more like a 2.

2. What to do with Andre Iguodala - Iggy turned down our contract offer last summer, and unlike his draft-mates (Okafor, Deng, Gordon), it looks as though he will cash in. However, I don’t think the Sixers should pay him superstar money, and the situation gets more interesting when you see that both he and Thaddeus Young play the 3, and unless Thaddeus grows a couple inches, that’s not going to change. Personally, I would explore sign and trades with Iggy and see if you can get a good deal (Josh Smith? Monta Ellis?) in a position we need more. Not saying I would definitely trade him, but I would explore the option.

Who should we draft - The Sixers pick at 16, and in a pretty deep draft, they should be able to get a decent player. There won’t be an impact PF availiable at that point, so I would think we would go for a shooter or just the best player availiable. I think Brandon Rush would be a good fit for our team with his shooting ability and strong defense. I will have a much stronger opinion on this by the time the draft rolls around.

Who should we sign - The Sixers have some cap room and may be able to sign a free agent or two that could get into the mix. Most of the big names out there are restricted (J. Smith, Ellis, Okafor, Deng, Gordon) or are unrestricted guys that have options they may pick up (Brand, Arenas, Jamison, Maggette, Iverson, Artest, J. O’Neal, B. Davis, Marion). So I’m thinking that unless Brand opts out, and will take less than the max from us, we are going to use our money to sign secondary players. Some guys I would take a look at include: Chris Duhon, DelonteWest, J.R. Smith, Carl Landry, Ronny Turiaf, Trevor Ariza, Craig Smith, Keyon Dooling and Sagana Diop.

What about Lou Williams - Sign him.

My dream scenerio - Sign and trade Iguodala for Monta Ellis. Hope Elton Brand just wants to get away from the Clippers and sign him to the largest contract we can afford. Draft Brandon Rush. This would give us the following line-up for 2008-09.

PG- Andre Miller
SG- Monta Ellis
SF- Thaddeus Young
PF- Elton Brand
C- Samuel Dalembert

Bench - Lou Williams, Willie Green, Reggie Evans, Brandon Rush, Jason Smith, Rodney Carney

That gives us a scoring PF, makes Miller our 3rd scoring option, gives up one of the deepest benches in the league and would make us a top-4 team in the Eastern Conference.

Hey, a guy can dream.

Who do you guys want in the offseason? Would you sign and trade Iggy or would you keep him?

Two league insiders prophesy a move to land Bulls restricted free agent Ben Gordon, an undersized shooting guard who could share the backcourt with big point guard Andre Miller. -