2009-10 NBA Preview: Miami Heat

Miami Heat

2008-09 Record: 43-39

Anticipated Starting Five

PG- Mario Chalmers
SG- Dwyane Wade
SF- Michael Beasley
PF- Udonis Haslem
C-   Jermaine O’Neal

Key Reserves:  Daequan Cook, Yakhouba Diawara, James Jones, Dorell Wright, Chris Quinn

Biggest Strength: Dwayne Wade

This dude is a  beast period.  As Pete shows below Wade  is fully capable of carrying a team into the playoffs when he is healthy.  And by the looks of it now he is.  He has committed to training hard and preparing his body to put the load of a franchise on his shoulders.

He had a ridiculous year last year.  He is all over the place and contributes to every aspect of the game.  If you look at the playoff teams in the league it’s arguable which team would be worse off between Cleveland and Miami if you took LeBron and Wade off.  The difference we already know how bad the Heat are without this guy.  Just look at their 2007-2008 record (ugh).

Biggest Weakness: Front Court Depth

Haslem is an ideal role player, worker and good friends with Wade.  O’Neal is an ex-20-10 player at the center position so his talent has been proven when he is healthy.  After those guys you are looking at a collection of garbage.

Jamaal McGloire – stinks.  He is a capable rebounder when in shape and motivated but that’s about it.  Joel Anthony – gigantic work in progress.  He is a very promising shot blocker but for a legit 6-9 player his rebounding rate sucks.

Considering O’Neals’s propensity to get hurt it would be in the Heat’s best interest to locate and sign a decent back-up big ASAP.

Key Player: Jermaine O’Neal

O’Neal is clearly on the down side of his career, but he still is only 30 years old.  He isn’t a heavy big man either.  And we all know what he is capable of when in good healthy from his Indiana days.  Dwyane Wade needs help, he needs a side kick and Jermaine O’Neals game is actually tailor made for this.

O’Neal is a good post up player but is also guy that can step out and hit a spot up jumper making him a nice pick and pop player for wade.  “Pop” is the key.  Wade needs room to do his thing not lane cloggers.

If O’Neal can stay healthy and productive the Heat will be better.  They only had him for 27 games last season.  Make that 70 productive games and it’s possible the Heat’s win total could move into the upper 40s.

Biggest Question: What’s up with Michael Beasley?

After watching Beasley play in college, I thought that his game, but mostly his attitude, translated into a Derrick Coleman like NBA career. So far, so good. Beasley was underwhelming as a rookie, considering he put up Durant-like numbers in college, averaging 13.9 points and 5.4 rebounds on 47% shooting while defenses focused on D-Wade, not him. This off-season, while most rookies are working on improving off their first year, he checked himself in a rehab facility in Houston after violating the league’s substance abuse policy. At age 20, he has plenty of time to get his attitude and his game right, but I’m not betting on it.

Best Individual Season of All-Time: Dwyane Wade, 2008-09

30.2 ppg, 7.5 apg, 5.0 rpg, 2.2 spg, 1.3 bpg

Talk about carrying a team. Wade took the Heat to playoffs last year with their 2nd leading scorer being the man I just mentioned in the Houston rehab. Wade was the first player in NBA history to go for 30 ppg, 7 apg, 5 rpg, 2 spg and 1 bpg. He came back with a vengence after being left behind in the Kobe/LeBron discussion following 2 injury riddled years. Last year he certainly put himself back in the discussion.

Pete’s 2010 Outlook: 4th place, Southeast division /   10th place, Eastern conference / 19th  place, NBA

I don’t think Wade can carry this squad all by himself again. I think he will put up another fantastic year, but I don’t see anyone else on this team that makes me think they can make the playoffs. Beasley is a big question mark. Jermaine O’Neal is a made of styrofoam. Haslem is a role player. I love Chalmers, but he’s no star. Cook a nice player, but really just a shooter. I don’t see it. They desperately needed Carlos Boozer, but couldn’t get a deal done. I hope Wade signs an extension to stay in Miami, but I don’t see a lot of reason for him to do it.

Dannie’s 2010 Outlook: 3rd place, Southeast division /   5th place, Eastern conference /  12th place, NBA

Ok since I didn’t really have a section to say this I will do so here.  I disagree with Pete regarding Michael Beasley.  While the kid does need to get his shit together mentally and start growing up faster than other 20 year olds have to, his talent is unquestioned.  His numbers look pedestrian for a top propects but that’s because he didn’t get top prospect minutes either.  Consider this:

On a per 36 minute basis Beasley’s numbers are: 20.1ppg, 7.9 boards, 2.2 TOVs, 47.5% from the field and 40.7% from three and 77% from the line.  I don’t know about you but if I draft a guy with a top 3 pick and given minutes he would produce that as a rookie I would be pretty damn happy.  In fact go ahead and take a look at how that compares (per 36 minutes) with Kevin Durant.

Miami makes the playoffs again and with a healthy team could get out of the first round on the back of Wade.  All it takes is for him to go crazy one series for that to happen and we’ve seen him do it before.  If they want to be more than that Jermaine O’Neal needs to be the legit #2 guy Wade needs and the youngins will have to continue to develop and stay out of trouble.

See all 2010 NBA team previews

September 18, 2009