The Phils’ first hurdle in their title defense will be the pesky Colorado Rockies, the team that swept them out of the playoffs in 2007. This is a very different Rockies team with a lot of new faces, but like the 2007 squad, their strengths are a deep line-up and bench, defense and their youth and energy. Their starting pitching is OK but they lack an ace, and their bullpen, like the Phillies, is a question mark.
Instead of ending the preview there, I’m going to do a preview exactly how I did the NLCS and World Series’ previews last year, in hopes of eliciting the same karma that came with them.
I’ve broken the teams out into 10 categories. The Rockies are a little tough to break out in categories because unlike the Phillies, they never use the same line-up and have many bench players that start several times a week.
Also of note, all the stats I show are for post all-star break, as it is a much better representation of how the players are doing now.
The Aces
Cliff Lee / Cole Hamels
vs. Ubaldo Jimenez / Aaron Cook
Well, the Phils certainly have the names, but in terms of recent production, it’s not quite that simple. Here are the numbers for these duo’s since the break:
Keep in mind that Cook missed several starts and only recently came back. Individually, Ubaldo Jimenez has probably had the best 2nd half of the bunch. He is very difficult to hit, giving up only 76 hits in 102.1 2nd half innings. It’s going to be extremely important for the Phillies to be patient with him in Game 1. In terms of which pair has the advantage, I’d go with the Phils because their lower WHIP and higher K/9 rates infer that their ERA should be a little lower. Also while Jimenez has pitched slightly better than Lee, the gap between Hamels and Cook is larger in our favor. Slight edge to the Phillies - but not as big an edge as many will think.
The Mids
Joe Blanton / Pedro Martinez
vs. Jason Hammel / Jorge De La Rosa
Though Jason Marquis was very good for the Rockies in the first half of the year, it seems he might play a JA Happ-type role for them. De La Rosa is also a question mark as he had a slight groin pull in his last start, and they aren’t sure when he will be able to pitch for them. For the moment, we will assume that Hammel and De La Rosa will be the guys.
Once again, the numbers come out very even with the Phils holding a slight edge in ERA and WHIP and the Rockies with an impressive win % and K/9 rate. There are also wild cards on both sides with Pedro not pitching all that much recently and De La Rosa’s status in doubt. JA Happ could also get the Game 4 start as the Rockies haven’t fared that well against LHP. I’m giving a slight edge to the Phillies for 2 reasons. First, the Rockies’ pair have been crushed by the Phillies this year, giving up 30 hits in just 19 innings against us. Second, Hammel and De La Rosa have no playoff experience, while Blanton and Martinez have 98.1 very successful playoff innings between them.
Leadoffs
Jimmy Rollins / Shane Victorino
vs. Carlos Gonzalez / Seth Smith
Like I said before, it’s tough to categorize the Rockies since they move their line-up around so much, but Carlos Gonzalez seems to have passed Dexter Fowler at the top of their line-up and has been playing very well recently. What you are looking for in your lead-off guys in the playoffs is for them to get on base and bother the pitcher. I’m going to look at 5 stats for these guys: On-Base %, Equivalent Base Running Runs, Stolen Bases, Runs Created / 27 outs and extra-base hits per game. I’m going to use rare stats where ever possible.
While we all love J-Roll and Shane, their .318 OBP is truly awful. Were they one person, they would rank 130th in the majors in that category. Once on base, they are better baserunners than the Rockies’ pair, but the RC/27 further shows that Gonzalez and Smith have been better with the bat. Gonzalez might just be the X-factor of the series. He has been nothing short of tremendous since the break, ranking 7th in the NL in OPS (.992, just behind Ryan Howard). Neutralizing him at the top of the line-up is a huge key for the Phillies in this series. Edge to the Rockies.
RBI Guys
Chase Utley / Ryan Howard / Raul Ibanez
vs. Todd Helton / Troy Tulowitzki / Ian Stewart
Tulo and Helton deserve respect, but I’m not sure there is a trio in all of baseball better than Utley, Howard and Ibanez. All 3 of the Phillies’ hitters (and Jayson Werth) would have led the Rockies in RBI this year. Howard meanwhile, has been one of the best hitters in all of baseball since the break, with a 1.003 OPS and 10 more RBI than anyone else in the game. No further explanation needed, edge to the Phillies.
Bottom Feeders
Jayson Werth / Pedro Feliz / Carlos Ruiz
vs. Brad Hawpe / Clint Barmes / Yorvit Torrealba
This might look like a easy category for the Phillies as Jayson Werth was one of only 8 players in the NL with 35 HR and 99 RBI this season, but there is more to it than that. Not only did both Hawpe and Barmes drive in more than 75 RBI this season, but the Rockies have several players (seen below in the bench category) that can be inserted into these spots in the order based on match-ups. This gives the Rockies slightly better depth on any given day because they can play to the opposing teams’ pitchers’ weaknesses. For those looking to argue that Feliz also knocked 80+ RBI, keep in mind that that was primarily because of the number of people on base in front of him. His .694 OPS ranks 69th out of 76 eligible NL players. Slight edge to the Rockies.
Middle Relief
Brett Myers / JA Happ / Scott Eyre
vs. Rafael Betancourt / Franklin Morales / Matt Daley
This is a horribly confusing category for the Phillies since we have no idea how Manuel plans on setting up his bullpen. Frankly, we don’t even know who our closer is going to be, which is weird since it’s, you know, October. My guess is that JA Happ, if he isn’t starting Game 4, will pitch pretty much every inning from 5-7 where the starter isn’t in, and then some combination of Madson, Myers, Eyre and Lidge will try to close out the game. Myers might be a huge key in this series if he can give us some quality late innings.
The Rockies situation isn’t much clearer. Betancourt has been awesome in the 8th, but the rest of their relievers have been shaky. Franklin Morales, another late inning guy, has a 5.34 ERA since the all-star break and the rest of their bullpen is a crap shoot with a bunch of decent, but hittable, arms. I’m giving a slight edge to the Phillies here because I think that JA Happ will pitch a lot of middle relief innings and not many teams have a starter with a sub-3 ERA available out of then pen. I also have confidence that Brett Myers will be productive.
Closer
Ryan Madson/Brad Lidge
vs. Huston Street
Manuel has said that the closer will be either Madson or Lidge. I get the feeling from his comments that Lidge might get the first shot, which would be a mistake. Either way, this has been the Phillies’ achilles heel all season and there is no way they are taking the category. On the other end, Street has been great for the Rockies, blowing only 2 saves with a 0.91 WHIP on the year. We would be wise to win the game well before the 9th inning. Edge to the Rockies.
Bench
Ben Francisco / Greg Dobbs / Matt Stairs
vs. Garrett Atkins / Ryan Spilborghs / Dexter Fowler
Francisco has been a great addition to what was previously a very disappointing bench for the Phillies. This, like the back-end of our bullpen, was a huge strength last season that became a huge weakness this year. The Rockies meanwhile, have 3 players that could start for most teams sitting on their bench, as well as a impact lefty bat in Jason Giambi. This category has probably the biggest gap between the 2 teams. Edge to the Rockies
Manager
Charlie Manuel
vs. Jim Tracy
While Tracy has done a fantastic job with the Rockies’ personnel and led them to a 74-42 record since taking over in late May, Manuel is the one with the ring and the one who has led the Phils to 3 straight NL East titles. His game management has dramatically improved since his first season, and his player management is arguably the best in all of baseball. He is fantastic at getting his players ready for the games and then putting them in a position to succeed. Edge to the Phillies.
Intangibles
- Phils have home field and lost 0 games at home during the post-season last year
- Rockies have a .241 BA with RISP and 2 outs, while the Phillies have the 2nd worst in the NL at .216
- The Rockies were only 26-26 against left-handed starters and will face 2 of the toughest in the NL – potentially 3 if JA Happ gets the Game 4 start.
- A similarly hot Rockies team swept the Phillies in 2007
- The Phillies have slightly better team defense (10 less errors)
- The Phillies won the season series 4-2
- While both are above average, the Rockies are slightly better baserunners as a team (0.69 vs. 0.27 EqBRR average)
- The Rockies have been playing meaningful games for several weeks, while the Phils have had the division locked down for about a week
I think that the home field advantage and Rockies’ struggles against lefties are more impactful than the Rockies’ better performance with the bat in clutch situations. Slight edge to Phillies.
Prediction
The Phillies took 6 of the 10 categories, including both starting pitching ones. However, we know that this whole series might just come down to whether or not the streaky Phillies’ offense is hot or not. Anything can happen with these teams in a 5-game series. As we know, the MLB playoffs might just be the least indicative of who the best team actually is.
I think that we will have a lot of trouble with Ubaldo Jimenez, who in addition to not giving up a lot of hits in general, doesn’t give up a lot of long balls and strikes out a lot of hitters. We are going to need to play small ball, work his pitch count and get a great outing from Cliff Lee to win Game 1. After that, I think all the pitching match-ups favor us and give us an edge in the rest of the series. You have to hope that the days off will benefit Utley and Werth, who had both been struggling of late, and that the offense will be able to score runs without relying only on the home run. In the end, I think our offense gets to their starters enough that we don’t have too many games our closers can blow, and our tough lefties keep the Rockies somewhat in check.
Final prediction: Phillies in Four.
HA! Just saw that they have Adam Eaton on their team. Their pitching can’t be that good if they needed to trade for him. Jimenez is very good and seemed to put it all together in the 2nd half. Beyond that they are very hittable especially if you can get to their pen in the 6th or 7th.
As for us. Charlie’s postgame comments make it seem like he’s leaning toward Happ in the rotation. Charlie can’t consider putting Lidge in a close game can he?? We can’t give away games like we did during the regular season, especially in a 5 game series. I know Charlie won’t do this but I’d leave him off the post-season roster.
Heard that Charlie’s considering bumping a reliever for Cairo.
Am I the only guy that thinks Happ should start game three in Colorado? If the Phills are up 2-0, why not take a shot at the sweep and get a couple days off?
I don’t disagree with any of what you said Pete, the Rocies’ depth is impressive, but I really think the Phills are going to roll this series. That’s just my gut though…
Nice work Pete… As a Rockies fan I think this series is closer than 4 games…but if Lee can neutralize U-ball for at least one start then this one does not feel as close. I was worried about our performance in Philly a month or so ago – but no De La Rosa in Citizens Bank along with Lee coming back to earth a bit – and we can win at least one. I don’t think you can clinch at Coors and I think the bullpens make it “interesting” in game 5 with Giambi providing the game winner in some form (probably a walk).
I think we will see Dexter Fowler starting the 2-hole come Wednesday if only because Tracy loves setting the line-up to avoid lefty match-ups and Seth Smith can be dominating as a pinch hitter (also – don’t be surprised if Atkins gets a start of Stewart for one of the two first games for this same reason).
Everything you said about plate patience is especially true for the Rockies – this is a team that strikes out a ton, but a combination of some plate discipline combined with their ability to hit the fastball and I hope they can hang around long enough to make it a bullpen crapshoot
Check out http://www.purplerow.com for a good Rockies blog – they have several posts a day and should have a big series preview with just the right amount of Rockies bias thrown in. Between the two sites – it should just about even out.
Bball, I watch every Rockies game and I can’t remember the last time Adam Eaton pitched. If the Phillies manage to knock the Rockies starters out in 6 or 7 innings, don’t be surprised to run across Jose Contraras or Jason Marquis. Also, Franklin Morales, even though he has been lit up lately, was 7 for 7 in save opportunities when Street was injured (I think, you might want to check the stats on that one).
I’m looking forward to this series! I like the Phillies whenever they’re not in direct competition with the Rockies, and I’ll be rooting for you guys if you do beat us.
“…I’m going do a preview exactly how I did… preview’s last year…”
Wowzers – two errors in one published sentence. How about a new twist: proofreading. Go Phillie’s.
Christopher –
I certainly hope that the punctuation in your last sentence is meant to be ironic.
And yes, it’s shocking that one would find some gramatical errors on an amateur blog one does in their free time. Shocking, I say! I hope you can fully recover from this ordeal.
Burke-
Don’t take my 4-game prediction as over-confidence. I would have much rather faced the Dodgers than you guys.
All this stuff above is based on several months of baseball, all that matters is how they play in the next couple games, and we all know how fickle baseball can be over short periods of time. Nothing would surprise me.
I’m banking hard on the Rockies struggles against lefties continuing and Lee and Hamels stepping up on the big stage. If that doesn’t happen, it may very well be Rockies in 4.
Also – to all – Burke was the source of much of my Rockies info for this preview – so thanks to him for the help.
Burke-
Do you think the Rockies will trade some of their 3 “extra starters” after the season? Or go with this strategy all next year as well. We could probably use Atkins here at 3B.
I think if aggregate performance is measured (either over the season or over the 2nd half), the Phils would come out slightly ahead, as Pete has shown. What is worrisome is that the Phillies have not been playing well going into the playoffs. They are on a streak of 12 straight games without a quality start, and they basically got the needed wins to clinch the division title by beating up on some bad pitchers (but not all — see Bazardo). Last year’s playoff run was keyed by great starting pitching: 8 quality starts out of 11 wins (including all 5 starts by Hamels), only 2 starts all postseason where the starting pitcher gave up more than 3 earned runs. Around late August, when the Phils were on a 15-5 run, I thought this year’s rotation had the capability of producing the same sort of pitching in the postseason. But if it happens this year, it will be coming out of nowhere. Most maddening is that the top 4 pitchers in the rotation all gave up 2 runs in the first inning the last 4 games (3 or which theoretically meant something). I’m hopeful, though not optimistic, that Hamels or Lee (or both) can get on the same sort of run that Hamels was on last postseason.
The other problem for the Phillies is that the top of the order is not hitting well. Rollins had a decent September, but his .320 OBP for Sept/Oct is still below average. Combine that with the OBP’s for the slumping Victorino (.286 in Sept/Oct) and slumping Utley (.290 in Sept/Oct) and it’s not hard to see why the Phillies have struggled for runs at times. The lack of production from the top of the order was mitigated by the almost-expected great Sept/Oct from Howard (and decent production from Ibanez and Werth), but I’d feel better about the offense going into the playoffs if the top 3 guys were getting on consistently. (Note: it’s nice to see that Howard has finally inched ahead of Utley in the Phillies MVP voting on this site. Maybe hitting over 100 points better in Sept/Oct had something to do with it.)
One note about the Rockies: this year’s team has good depth, but they don’t have Matt Holliday (and especially not the 2007 Matt Holliday). That has to count for something, right?
none of the division winners in the NL have been tearing it up lately.The ROX seem to be playing the best lately but in the playoffs,who knows!PHILS NEED TO PLAY BETTER IN ORDER TO TAKE THE ROX! lets go Phils!
I think Rich Hoffman says it best here about what a crock it is that the Phillies (or anyone for that matter) are forced to play while their fans are at work… http://www.philly.com/philly/blogs/hofmann/Baseballs_error.html
Trillo Fan-
According to Phillies.com, Brad Lidge has been working on a 3rd pitch, a cut fastball, to help him out.
Yeah, the early starts for playoff games are ridiculous, especially since it’s the same non-marquee teams (Even though we are the defending champs. Maybe it has more to do with the Rockies. Whatever.) that get stuck with them all the time. Because of the time difference, I can understand the deal with the west coast teams, but continually getting bumped in favor of the Yankees or the Red Sox is lousy.
The funny thing is that you have the opposite problem once you get to the World Series. The games start late, they end late, and you’re trying to stay awake to watch them while also trying to make it through the following work day on less sleep. At least it’s a problem for some of us older guys anyway.
Good to know about the live blogging, Pete. I won’t be joining you for game 1. I’m only working until 3pm on Wednesday and I’m recording the game. I’ll be able to see what I missed and catch up to real time, so I don’t want any spoilers before I get home.
I’ll be here on Thursday though because I’m working until 7pm. I’m still going to record the game, but I plan on listening to it on the radio during the day anyway. If the Phils win, I’ll watch the game when I get home. If they don’t, I won’t bother. I’ll check and if you’re here I’ll join in.
Thank God for the DVR!
This Lidge cut-fastball thing reminds me of Rocky II. Remember? Mickey taught Rocky to fight right-handed and Rocky stuck with it for the fisrt 14 rounds against Apollo Creed. Then halfway through the 15th round he switched back to fighting left-handed and won the fight.
Well, Lidge sandbagged (and tanked) the entire season. Now he’s going to catch everyone off guard and dominate in the playoffs. Brilliant!
Seriously though, I just read the article and it sounds reasonable enough. I mean, it didn’t just come out of nowhere. The timing is weird though. As if he hasn’t had enough problems all year, he has to add another variable into the equation? Now if he blows up in the playoffs it could be because of the knee, the mechanics, the command, the confidence, or the new pitch. Sorry for the negative view, but come on already.
Trying to find a positive, maybe it will actually help him. He can’t get knocked around any worse with a cutter than he has been without one, can he? Still, it smacks of desperation.
Pete,
Atkins will be gone for sure. He already went through arbitration and got 7 mil this year to sit the bench. 2010 is another arbitration year, but when he files no one really expects the Rockies to make a move. Atkins himself said last week, “Obviously, I don’t think I’ve got too many more games in a Rockies uniform. I’m just trying to enjoy it with these guys. . . .” Stewart is considered the real deal and while his BA is terrible, his OPS is .783 and should project close to 800 next year. The deal we offer him (he only made 400 K this year) should set the tone for how we are going to sign Fowler, Smith, and Gonzalez.
Based on those upcoming contracts, there are plenty of tough decisions. Barmes (with EY2 behind him) and Hawpe (with 3 young starters and Spillbourghs as a value-guy off the bench as viable options in the OF) stand out as guys the front office need to think long and hard about keeping. Barmes is arbitraiton eligible and his defense may be strong enough to convince the club to keep him around anouther year as EY2 continues developing. Hawpe is set to get 7.5 million next year and has a club option in 2011. There were some rumors he would be shipped this year – so it’s likely teams will be inquiring and the Rockies will be listening.
Other than that – dont forget the rotation gets a boost with Francis back from Shoulder surgery (not a sure bet to be great again though) and Bucholtz (Tommy John) in the bullpen.
Also – its mostly the Rockies fault that these are day games, but for an East Coast team that is defending the World Series, the Phillies are getting relativley little MSM play.
As far as LIdge’s cut fastball goes you’ve got to think he’s been working on it here and there during the regular season. The guy’s had two pitches his whole career, it sounds incredibly risky to work on a new pitch for a couple weeks and debut it in the postseason when he’s been so inconsistent. Sounds kind of like grasping at straws.