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After winning the division for 11 straight years, the Braves have now spent 4 straight years finishing no higher than 3rd. That figures to change this year, as they enter the year with a re-vamped line-up and a sense of purpose in Bobby Cox’s last year as manager.
Line-Up:
A crutch for the Braves last year – this should be a greatly improved area with a (presumably) healthy Chipper Jones, a full year of Nate McClouth, the additions of Melky Cabrera and Troy Glaus and the rise of super-prospect Jason Heyward. Heyward is the guy we will be hearing the most about as he is one of the best hitting prospects to come along in years. At 20 years old, against much older competition, he tore up Double and Triple-A last year, hitting .323 with a .408 OBP and .555 SLG%. He is massive, at 6’5”, 240lbs, and could very well be the best hitter in baseball in a couple years. The thought was that they would start him in the minors, but he’s hitting .440 in spring training with a .600 OBP. It’s going to be hard to justify sending him back down. At 20, it’s hard to imagine him being an all-star level player this year, but he’ll be a serious threat at the bottom of their line-up. I have this group ranked 6th in the NL.
Starters:
The Braves had 6 starters coming into the season but they unloaded Javier Vazquez, their best pitcher from last year, to the Yankees. No worries, as they have Tim Hudson back (and apparentely looking good) and Tommy Hanson ready for a full fledged break out. Hanson was the #1 pitching prospect in baseball prior to be called up last year and he did little to disappoint. He had a 2.89 ERA and 1.18 WHIP in 21 starts, striking out 116 in 127.2 IP. He has a hard slider, a harder fastball, and a nasty curve. If he stays healthy, he’s going to be a serious thorn in our side for years to come. There is some possibility for disappointment in this group as Derek Lowe didn’t live up to his contract last year, Hudson has injury problems, and Kawakami couldn’t cut it as a starter last year. I have them as the 4th best rotation in the NL.
Bullpen:
A lot more question marks here as they replaced the reliable Rafael Soriano and Mike Gonzalez with in oft-injured Takashi Saito and Billy Wagner. Wagner hasn’t had an ERA over 3.00 since 2000. He still has some of his fastball velocity (94mph average last year) and can still strike people out at a ridiculous rate (26K in 15.1 IP) but the real question is whether or not his arm can hold up for an entire season, something it hasn’t done since 2007. Saito is the same way. He’s never had an ERA over 2.49 in a season, but he’s been on and off of the DL the last two years, and is now 40 years old.
Most Important Player: Tommy Hanson
We talked about Hanson a bit already. He’s the most important player because the Braves are counting on him, with just 127 innings under his belt, to be the ace of this team. He might not get the opening day start, but make no mistake about it, he will determine how far they go this year.
Farm System:
We know about Heyward already. This gives our NL East rivals 3 of the top 5 prospects in all of baseball along with Strasburg and Stanton. And 4 of the top 6 in the last 2 years if you count Hanson. Joy. The Braves 2 other best prospects are 2 low-level pitchers with tremendous stuff but a lot of work to do: Julio Teheran and Arodys Vizcaino. 1B Freddie Freeman could be up in 2011 as the starting 1B, but that might be a little too soon. Other than Heyward, there isn’t a lot of MLB-ready talent in this system, and overall, it’s about average.
Outlook:
Hanson and Heyward are the future, but this year the future will intermix with present and past to make for a very formidable squad. If everything goes right for this team: Jones, Wagner and Hudson stay healthy, Heyward and Hanson meet expectations, McClouth plays like he did in Pittsburgh and Glaus has a revival at 1B, this team is absolutely a World Series contender. Their success is going to depend on their health though, as so many of their regulars have a history of injuries. I expect them to be neck and neck with the Phillies for most of the year, battle through some injuries, and win the Wild Card and be a darkhorse contender in the playoffs. Prediction: 90-72, 2nd place, Wild Card winner.
I think you meant “Martin” Prado…
/shows self out
haha – you know why I put Miguel? Miguel Prado was a character in Dexter. Played by Jimmy Smitts. Whoops.
If everything goes right for this team: Jones, Wagner and Hudson stay healthy, Heyward and Hanson meet expectations, McClouth plays like he did in Pittsburgh and Glaus has a revival at 1B, this team is absolutely a World Series contender. Their success is going to depend on their health though, as so many of their regulars have a history of injuries.
This is exactly why I’m not sold on the Braves. Throw in the bullpen where, as you stated, there are even more questions, and I think needing everything to go right is a lot to expect and an awfully tough way to make the playoffs.
In any case, it sure is a far cry from their situation during their dominant run with Maddux, Glavine, Smoltz, L. Jones, A. Jones, etc…
BTW, I checked in on the blog tourney at thephield.wordpress.com. Yesterday there was voting in the 1st region and a preview of the 2nd region. Today the voting is open in the 2nd region and there is a preview of the 3rd region.
ReclinerGM is in the 4th region which means that a preview of your 1st round matchup will be up tomorrow and the voting will take place on Sunday. (just in case you want to get the word out)
It is becoming obvious that Braves slugger Jason Heyward has a very special bat. In the past 20 years, seven prominent players with similar pedigrees to Mr. Heyward have shown enough offensive promise to climb aboard the express train to the majors. As a group, these seven phenoms hit just .265 with a pedestrian .442 slugging percentage before turning 21, numbers that pale in comparison to their later totals. Alex Rodriguez was the most successful, as his age-20 season was one of the best in the history of the game. But even Mr. Rodriguez struggled to adjust to the majors, hitting .204 in 1994 and .232 in 1995. A more cautionary tale is that of Gary Sheffield. After tearing through the minors as a 19-year-old in 1988, he was terrible for the Brewers, and didn’t break out until after Milwaukee had traded him to San Diego at age 23. He eventually became a superstar, like the rest, but it took a while. — Wall Street Journal
Where, except the Wall Street Journal does a 20 year ol kid who hasn’t had a real at bat yet get called Mr. That’s respect.
This time of year, common terms include sweet 16, slightly future, and on the bubble, slightly past. No, you aren’t on a college basketball thread. Rather a baseball thread that as of this writing, remains 16 days until Opening Day. That includes a compromise in defining that holiday by Yankees-Red-Sox on Sunday night baseball rather than the former greatness of Opening Day defined by play ball in Cincinatti. But that’s another story for another time.
In celebrating the time distance with the great moment of an exact starting point that celebrates the start of my 50th year as a baseball fan, I’m offering 16 predictions for the forthcoming season. These will appear on the most recent baseball post on this site in daily doses. I will deny ever having written them if they don’t pan out.
Speaking of bubbles, my first prediction is the 25 man Opening Day Phillies roster, including the inclusion or prediction of doom for some bubble candidates.
Halladay Ruiz Howard Ibanez
Hamels Schneider Utley Victorino
Blanton Rollins Werth
Happ Polanco Gload
Kendrick Castro Fransisco
Madson Dobbs
Baez
Contreras
Bastardo
Herndon
Contreras
Durbin
Moyer, Lidge, Romero all open the season on the DL. I think 12 pitchers will give Charlie some flexibility early on while Lidge spends a few days on the DL, and Bastardo sticks since Romero won’t be ready for the opener. I just don’t know that the club will resign Eyre or acquire a lefty reliever this early rather than go with what they have. I don’t know what the future holds for John Mayberry, Jr., but it will take something unforseen for him to get a chance to sustain a career in the Show as a Phillie. Feel sorry for Jamie Moyer in a way if you wish, but you can’t keep sending Kyle Kendrick to the minors after following up last year’s effort and the way he’s pitched this spring. Budget be damned, they will bite the bullet. And so will I if injuries change things and Ruben and Charlie don’t use this as their guide to the 25 Phillies for 2010.
Prediction number 2….
Roy Halladay will not win the Cy Young Award.
There is a popular consensus based on his greatness and leaving the strong AL East that Doc will join the Phillies and win the Cy Young. And its not a silly thought. But a look at last year’s voting pretty clearly states why Chris Carpenter gave way to Tim Lincecum, who won his second in a row (Greg Maddux won 4, Randy Johnson same, and Sandy Koufax 3 of 4 when it was 1 for 2 leagues back in the day if you think Lincecum’s accomplishment is of historic proportions). Carpenter got killed because of teammate Adam Wainright who got a near equal amount of first place votes. Lincecum had a very good year, and it wasn’t fraudulent that he won, but Carpenter’s reasonably similar numbers were held back by his teammate’s excellent year.
Carpenter, like Halladay, has already won 1 Cy Young. Halladay has had Cy Young type seasons, but just the one award.
You can infer from that teammate ordeal that something similar will hold Halladay back, at least in the prediction scheme. Jimmy Rollins won the 2007 NL MVP despite Ryan Howard’s strong showing, and its not impossible for a teammate to do that, its just a hinderance. This year, I expect Cole Hamels to be a factor in the Cy Young voting, and hurt Halladay. I am barely concerned with Halladay putting up representative numbers and placing near the top of the vote. But I expect Hamels to make the All-Star team, and place in at least the top 6 of the field. There’s no reason to definitively discount Linecum, Carpenter and Wainright from good years again, Johan Santana should be a force, and Colorado’s Ubaldo Jimenez and Houston’s Wandy Rodriguez look like they are close to breakouts. Simply put, I believe it will be very competitive, and despite a really good year, Doc will be hindered by Hamels presence. It’s a nice problem to have in the overall scheme of things.
Wandy Rodriguez is 31 and doesn’t have much more room for growth. What about Matt Cain in SF? He was in the discussion for awhile too. I just think that Roy is going to put up 20+ wins with a 2.2 something ERA and throw at least 5CG with probably at least 3 SO. He’s going to be a monster, and I doubt Lincecum will be allowed to win his 3rd straight Cy Young by the voters.
Adam,
Good add on Matt Cain. As a barometer for you feeling that Doc throws 5 CG, he threw 9 last year. That may be apples and oranges in a pennant race, and I have to believe a more focussed/motivated Doc considering the disappointment of not being traded at the break last year goes out there. Whether that translates to more CG with a different skipper as well, who’s to say.
One things about Lincecum. As could be said with a fair amount of talented pitchers. They get hot, they can take it out of the voters hands. Maybe it got old voting for Randy Johnson, testy relationship with the press at times, but the guy was so good, you had to. I’m guessing, but I think Lincecum levels off some this year after getting the nice contract.
I couldn’t argue with your overall Doc numbers. Sky’s the limit feels reasonable. Personally, I’m a little cautious, suspecting 18 and 6. He’ll lose 3 by himself, and lose 3 via the bullpen. Could I see a Ron Guidry 25-3 year? Absolutely. But if I was really making a point, its the suspicion that Cole Hamels is going to have a really good year, and take votes away from Doc.
I might be wrong, but my biggest concern about Hamels is health.
From Troy Renck in the Denver Post this morning (Sunday) Note what’s at the top of the list.
<<I asked scouts to give me a list of surprise players this spring, and there were some interesting responses. They start with Phillies outfielder Domonic Brown. The 22-year-old’s offensive aptitude was better than advertised before he got sent down. The Dodgers’ Blake DeWitt also is turning heads in camp with his conversion to second base. He could push both Jamey Carroll and Ronnie Belliard into utility roles. Conor Jackson is mashing again and will likely hit second in the Diamondbacks’ order. And finally, one scout said the Pirates think and act a lot better than they are.
>>
Today is voting day in the Salisbury region of the Phillies blog tourney.
Here is what thephield.wordpress.com had to say about ReclinerGM in their preview post of your first round matchup:
Driving force: Pete
Recliner GM is a go-to blog for sure. Pete is the Phillies writer, while Dannie covers the Sixers. They tackle a lot of other things – and the feel is a bit old-school, which is superb. Both writers do a heck of a job. Pete’s Phillies posts are thoughtful and opinionated. He’s serious and gives convincing arguments. And, just as well, he takes part in reader comments, discussing his points with readers. The blog is a bit plain and it’s difficult to go back in time (they’ve been around for a while), but you know if you’re reading Recliner GM, you’re getting quality.
I cast my vote and hope that the rest of you do the same.
?
Well, thanks for putting the word out B.ski. Sad to say, I had read your posts earlier on, but had forgotten today was election day, and failed to vote. I see Mike won. Better politicking I suppose. The preview gave Pete and Dannie nice reviews. They seemed to emphasize Pete. Must be the subject material Dannie has had to work with the last few months.
So many blogs out there. I guess I’ve scanned a select few here and there. I do kind of like the 700 Level, maybe the first one I uncovered. But for some reason, I’ve a lot more often than not felt pretty comfortable on this site. Maybe its that people seem more knowledgale and less sarcastic. Who knows. I do know this. I appreciate Dannie, but he writes on a subject I have little interest in anymore. But Pete’s work on the whole is nothing short of outstanding. So I didn’t vote, but you have my ongoing support, for whatever that’s worth. I’m a content guy. Design doesn’t concern me. One guy’s opinion.
Must be the subject material Dannie has had to work with the last few months. - LOL
different styles i think. Dannie is more opinionated and engaging. Pete is factual and deliberate in almost everything. complementary.
as far as design goes, I think a lot of progressive thinking has subdued the extreme importance of simplicity. to me anyway.
hahaha – that might have a little to do with it.
Pete definitely puts more time into analysis than I do. I am not going to beat you over the head with basketball analysis. I think it has it’s place for sure and I’ll interject some when making a factual type argument but I just like to talk (debate) sports casually like I would with my friends.
Baseball is different in in both the availability of wide reaching stats and how much more the fans understand all the stats.
Most basketball fans aren’t into advanced level statistics.
It’s actually too bad we didn’t win that first round match-up. I think Pete’s content is grossly undervalued and more importantly under recognized. Need to do some PR!
Ken,
The review emphasized Pete because this is a Phillies blog tourney and Pete is the Phillies writer here.
I don’t think it was meant as a slight to Dannie at all and I sure hope that Dannie doesn’t take it that way.
I know that I’ve only posted like 2 comments on Sixers topics throughout the season but that’s because
(continued from previous post)……they have been a mess and I just can’t bring myself to pay much attention to them, let alone talk about them on a daily basis. It has nothing to do with Dannie’s coverage of them.
You know I love your stuff, Dannie.
(Sorry for the split post. I accidentally hit the submit button too soon. Although it did build up a bit of anticipation, didn’t it?)
this is a Phillies blog tourney and Pete is the Phillies writer here. >>
There went the theory that details are my life. Oh, well.
I am not a student of these blogs. However, from what I have seen, Pete’s coverage of the Phils is the best. I know we’re talking Phillies blogs here, but I read one Mets blog in January that offered some pre pre season NL East predictions, and had the Mets finishing first, ”assuming they add starting pitching”. Now there’s quality for you. Anyway, it’s a cute angle, parlaying the blogs in an NCAA formatted elction, and no matter how political it might be, this is an excellent blog. For whatever one person’s opinion is worth.
How nice that I didn’t vote, and am complaining about the results. Typical of many American citizens, I guess.
b.ski – Definitely didn’t take it as a slight, it’s a MLB blog tournament, just like this was a NBA team blog contest.
I know you are into the Sixers and that content when we produce it (when they deserve our interest, that is).
When we first moved our blog over here from WordPress.com I wrote a lot of Sixers content and did even more promotion of the Sixers content. So when Deep Sixers died after Marc stop blogging we almost by default inherited a pretty nice following for Sixers content.
Some of the people ventured over into Pete’s Phillies writing but overall we haven’t done as much promotion of our Phillies content as we did the Sixers stuff in the beginning. Also, there was and remains a lot more competition for people’s attention with regards to the Phillies than there was with the Sixers. It was pretty much just us and Depressed Fan for a while.
I also think it’s hard for us to win competitions like this because we are a multi-sport blog.