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I would feel bad for Mets’ fans if they weren’t so insufferable. This team has had more bad injuries, late-season tanking, stupid front-office moves and general malaise than any “contending” team in the last 3 years. I guess that’s karma getting back at them for coming down to our stadium every year for the sole purpose of starting fights, and running their mouths (yes, I’m aware I’m making an extremely broad generalization that doesn’t apply to all Mets fans – but when I worked at the ballpark, the Mets fans were BY FAR the worst opposing fans to deal with).
Line-Up:
When healthy, it’s one of the best in the NL. Jose Reyes is a serious pest at the top, but missed most of last year with hamstring problems, and will miss the start of this season with thyroid issues. Beltran, Wright and Bay provide a dynamic middle of the order, but each have questions. Can Beltran stay healthy? Can Wright regain his power stroke? Will Bay play like he did in on the Pirates or on the Red Sox? The bottom 3 in their line-up is pretty pedestrain, with strike-out master Jeff Francouer, the hated Rod Barajas (who has lit us up since leaving the team) and the hilariously defensively inept David Murphy. I have them rated as the 5th best line-up in the NL. Reyes is the key though. If he’s healthy and getting on the bathpaths, this line-up goes from good to great, real fast.
Starters:
Honestly, I would be furious if I was a Mets fan. It’s painfully clear that they need starting pitching. Johan Santana is one of the best in the game, but who knows how he will return from injury. The other 4 starters are below average. So how does Omar Minaya fix this? By signing and outfielder to a $66 million deal, of course! Minaya should have gone hard after John Lackey. Lackey signed with the Red Sox for 5 years, $82.8 million. Jason Bay has a vesting 5th year that could easily bring his deal to 5 years, $80 million. Those are pretty close money wise, and one fits a huge need, and one does not. As Phillies’ fans, how would you be feeling about the Mets with Santana and Lackey at the top? Even if that didn’t work, he should have at least signed Joel Pinero and used the left-over money to get a LF. The best he could do was Kelvim Escobar, who is already hurt. As a Phillies fan? I’m happy and relieved. Pelfrey, Maine, Perez are all injury risks and have a 4.49 combined ERA over the last 2 seasons, so they aren’t exactly dominating when they are. This is by far the biggest question mark for the Mets, I have their rotation ranked 11th in the NL.
Bullpen:
Usually when pitchers come from the AL to the NL (to a pitchers park, no less) their numbers improve. That didn’t happen for K-Rod last year. While he was certainly a decent closer, his ERA rose from 2.24 to 3.71 and his K/9 rate declined for the 2nd straight year, going from 12.03 to 10.14 to a still-impressive 9.66 in 2009. What does this mean? To me it means that he will continue to be a decent pitcher, but we will never see the 2007 version of K-Rod again. There is also a chance that his arm is wearing down and he might be a candidate for injury this year. The rest of the bullpen is decent, but not spectacular. Feliciano is still around to give Howard trouble, and they have some decent righthanders in Bobby Parnell and maybe even Nelson Figueroa.
Most Important Player: Jose Reyes
They just aren’t going to win their pitching, so they are going to have to win by out-scoring people. This starts with Jose Reyes, who hasn’t quite turned into the MVP-caliber player everyone thought he would. Even though this will be his 8th season in NYC, he’s not turning 27 until June. He can still get better and still reach his full potential. What would his full potential look like? .310 BA, 130 runs, 80 steals, 40 doubles, 15 triples. Something terrifying like that. I think it’s going to take that kind of year out of him to lead the Mets upward.
Farm System:
The Mets have an improving farm system. For awhile they were near the bottom, but now moved into the middle pack. The once-untouchable Fernando Martinez is still just 21 and might see some time in the majors this yaer. I personally think he has a better chance of turning into the once-untouchable Lastings Milledge, but we’ll see. The most exciting kid they have is RHP Jenrry Mejia. He dominated High-A ball, and held his own in AA at just 21 years old. He features a sinking fastball that sits mid-90s and can hit 98. He’s probably a future starter, but don’t be surprised to see him in the bullpen sooner rather than later.
Outlook:
There is no way they are as bad as last year, but I just don’t see them as contenders with that rotation. Add to this that they are already off to a bad start of the year with Reyes’ thyroid problem, and Beltran’s knee issues, and I couldn’t put them above 4th. I used to respect Omar Minaya, but he seems to have gone off the reservation a little bit, and it would behoove (that’s right, behoove) the Mets to start looking for new GM’s. Billy Beane would make a lot of sense there. I don’t see them as a distant 4th though. David Wright should have a comeback year and is one of the best in the business (though his defensive metrics dropped considerably last year) and he and Jason Bay and whoever is healthy will win some games for them. Prediction: 80-82, 4th place.
Meanwhile, back at the top of the division, here’s a view on a wager JonahKeri.com thinks has value.
Atlanta Braves +350 to win NL East
One of the things I’ve noticed since starting these annual exercises is that the sharps have gotten smarter. The spread of projection systems like PECOTA, CHONE and ZIPS gives everyone – including Vegas – a chance to think analytically along with the rest of us, and also predict where people might lay their money. That means fewer and fewer great over/under opportunities every year.
With that in mind, we’re taking the Braves to usurp the Phillies in the NL East. That +350 line is amazing for a team this good. The Braves trot out a deep starting rotation led by Jair Jurrjens, a now-healthy Tim Hudson and young ace Tommy Hanson. They’re very good up the middle, led by Brian McCann and Yunel Escobar. And the great, big wild card is Jason Heyward, who’s hit so many bombs during spring training that Braves employees are considering parking their cars in Alabama.
The Phils bring back their loaded infield, along with Jayson Werth, Shane Victorino, and a pitching staff now led by the great Roy Halladay. But they still have a shaky bullpen, they’ve had a long run of great health, and they might be due for some bad luck this season. Considering the Giants – whose lineup is completely miserable outside of Pablo Sandoval – are a mere +300 to win the NL West, this Braves line looks too good to pass up.
Ken,
You gotta love all these predictions, don’t you?
I found this one on foxsports.com:
(Since this is a Mets post, we’ll lead off with them)
The Amazin’ Mets will come in third in the National League East, according to Bruce Bukiet, an associate professor of mathematical sciences and associate dean of the College of Science and Liberal Arts at the New Jersey Institute of Technology.
Bukiet bases his predictions on a mathematical model he developed in 2000, one that computes the probability of a team winning a game against another team with given hitters, bench, starting pitcher, relievers and home field advantage. For this season, Bukiet has refined his algorithm slightly, incorporating a more realistic runner advancement model. Whatever that is.
The professor claims to have beaten the odds in six of the eight years he’s been using the model. According to his predictions, the Philadelphia Phillies, St. Louis Cardinals and Los Angeles Dodgers should all repeat as winners in the National League, with the Atlanta Braves taking the wild-card slot.
In the American League, the New York Yankees should blow away the competition, winning in the East, and the Minnesota Twins will repeat as winners in the Central. But the American League West is too close to call, with all four teams within five wins and the Texas Rangers, Oakland Athletics and Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim expected to win 82, 81 and 80 games respectively. As for the wildcard, Bukiet says it’s a toss-up between the Tampa Bay Rays and Boston Red Sox from the East.
Bukiet predicts the following records for each team in the Major Leagues:
AL East: Yankees — 103-59; Rays — 93-69; Red Sox — 92-70; Orioles — 71-91; Blue Jays — 70-92.
AL Central: Twins — 92-70; White Sox — 85-77; Tigers — 74-88; Royals — 72-90; Indians — 67-95.
AL West: Rangers — 82-80; A’s — 81-81; Angels — 80-82; Mariners — 77-85.
NL East: Phillies — 90-72; Braves — 88-74; Mets — 82-80; Marlins — 76-86; Nationals — 72-90;
NL Central: Cards — 91-71; Cubs — 86-76; Brewers — 78-84; Reds — 74-88; Astros — 73-89; Pirates — 66-96.
NL West: Dodgers — 88-74; Diamondbacks — 85-77; Rockies — 84-78; Giants — 80-82; Padres — 77-85.
“I publish these numbers to promote the power and relevance of math,” he said.
“We’ve long had a problem convincing U.S. youngsters to embrace mathematics in school. Studying how math applies to baseball demonstrates not only that math can be fun, but how it is really a part of things people care about.”
No offense, but I like this prediction better than yours. :-)
Pete,
Two things…
First, you forgot something in your write up of the Mets…
“Honestly, I would be furious if I was a Mets fan. It’s painfully clear that they need starting pitching…
..So how does Omar Minaya fix this? By signing and outfielder to a $66 million deal, along with a handful of mediocre catchers, of course!”
For a while it seemed like every time I looked they had signed another one. I hope Minaya is their GM for a long time, as I’m enjoying his tenure very much.
Second, the Phils announced their first round of cuts and Mathieson is on the list. Didn’t know if you saw that yet.
In fairness to the Mets, from what I remember, they did convey a serious interest in John Lackey. They apparently decided he was a 5 year health risk. I’d put more confidence in a Red Sox guess on that than a Met forecast, but time will tell.
This set of predictions the professor makes has the Phils at 90 wins, the Red Sox at 92. Both strike me as low.
David Murphy wrote a piece on Rule 5 pickup David Herndon the other day that didn’t get much attention beyond the article. But that may have had something to do with Mathieson getting cut. Herndon has thrown 5 scoreless innings so far.
disappointed to see Mathieson “cut” – who knows how long his arm is going to hold up.
Herndon has been good – I’d like to see him pitch – don’t know who is going today besides Happ (1pm on PHL-17)
<<The Predictalator has played every 2010 MLB game 50,000 times before it’s actually played. Based on that analysis, we present projected standings as well as the highest and lowest win totals for each team in the 50,000 seasons that were played.>>
Of all those seasons played out, the Phillies won 114 in one, 75 in another. Go figure. The Phils averaged 94 wins a season. The Phils are the 2nd most likely team to win their division, a gaping choice as the most likely to win their league, and the 3rd highest choice to win the WS.
http://predictionmachine.com/Predictalator/Predictions/MLB2010.aspx
Another solid pre season outing for J Happ today.
It’s a long season, but no evidence of any worrisome Sabremetric predictions picking up momentum.
Very nice.
Dear journalist,
Your an idiot, Your story has more leaks then the Iraqi navy, for starters mejia is 20 not 21, Your predictions aren t coming true pelfrey has the best era in the nl mets in a whole have one of the best era in baseball as well as one of the best bullpens,the” strike out king” francouer has been a little less the spectacular , and as of now the mets are sitting in philly in first place. Oh and we got ike .
Dear Hopefully-An-Eight-Year-Old,
The hilarity of you calling me an idiot while using the word “your” incorrectly is awesome.
Also…
It’s April. You guys have had huge leads in SEPTEMBER and blown it. Clearly you haven’t learned to keep your mouth shut. Hopefully because you are 8. But hey, you are up by 1/2 game in April! Get your shots in now!
mejia is 20 not 21>>
Joe,
Great point. It’s time to fold up the website.