Prior Previews
I’m not sure if you guys and gals have heard, but there were a couple changes in this area of the Eagles and the next decade or so of Eagles football depends on the success of those changes. No big deal.
Depth Chart
For the last 7 years, this depth chart read Donovan McNabb, QB and Brian Westbrook, RB for the Eagles. Now the winning-est QB in franchise history is in a rival’s locker room, and the most dynamic running back in team history might be hanging in the towel. That’s part of what makes this an exciting season for the Eagles, it’s the first time in years that we have relative unknowns in the backfield. It’s also part of why people aren’t quite sure what to expect.
Kolb and McCoy are the replacements, with fan-favorite Leonard Weaver sticking around at the FB spot. Michael Vick has proven completely worthless, and draftee Mike Kafka looks to have some tools, but needs a lot of coaching. Some people got excited about Mike Bell because he’s had 1 or 2 good fantasy weeks, but he’s an average back-up. Buckley and Scott are fighting for a roster spot.
Most Important Player
Kevin Kolb. Is there any doubt here? If Kolb comes out like Aaron Rodgers, we could be looking at a Super Bowl contending team for the next several years with our young and talented core. If he comes out looking like David Carr or Alex Smith, we could be in for a long, painful search for franchise QB.
The general consensus seems to be that Kolb will be just fine. We saw what he can do in his 2 starts last year, but we also saw 3 INT’s against sub-par pass defenses. He’s got a very accurate arm and can hit people in stride which will be huge for our offense given our talent on the edge. On the other hand, he doesn’t have the ability that McNabb had to avoid the rush, keep plays alive and find WR’s downfield, which he would once or twice a game. He also doesn’t quite have the arm strength McNabb did.
What do I think Kolb will do? I think Reid will be smart and give him packages he can handle. I think the talent around him will enable him to transition in the role of starter pretty easily. I think he will throw for nearly 4,000 yards and 30 TDs, but will also throw nearly 20 picks. I think he will show enough promise to make us think he could be what McNabb wasn’t, but we really won’t know until next year (if there is an NFL season), when he will be out there without kid gloves and without excuses.
Biggest Question
Can LeSean McCoy handle a full workload?
McCoy was very promising in his rookie year. He doesn’t look to have quite the elusiveness that Westbrook had, but he has enough speed, quickness and pass-catching ability to be more than an adequate replacement.
Lost in the Kolb transition is this McCoy transition. Many argued correctly that Brian Westbrook, not McNabb has been the most important player on the Eagles for years. So shouldn’t McCoy’s first year be just as scrutanized as Kolb’s? Well, no. But it’s still pretty darn important.
There were 8 games last year that McCoy was featured prominently for the Eagles (12 touches or more) and McCoy performed much better in that “starting” role than when they used him as a back-up. In those 8 games, he had 508 rushing yards with a 4.5 average and 170 receiving yards with a 7.0 average. If he gets 20 touches a game this year, I don’t think it’s out of line to expect 1,100 rushing yards and 400 receiving yards.
But can he stay healthy, consistent and take care of the football through a full workload? Kolb and the Eagles certainly hope so.
Division Ranking
Again, this is really tough to rank. I have a feeling they all will be considering how strong our division looks this year. For this one, I had to break it out into QB and RB to try to rank the backfield overall.
With the QB’s, I just had to put Kolb 4th. The Eagles’ fan in me wants to be super positive and predict a break-out first season, but the fact of the matter is the other 3 QBs have a pretty solid track record, and Kolb has 2 whole starts. Have to stay objective. So how do you rank the other 3 QBs? Let’s take a look at their average 16-game season over the last 3 years…
This actually was more cut and dry that I thought, with nearly every category going Romo/McNabb/Manning. Yes, Manning did have a break-out campaign last year, but I’m not convinced that it was the start of a string of elite years. I’ve just never been all that impressed with Manning, and would never want him as the QB of one of my teams (yes, I’m aware Justin Tuck, Michael Strahan and David Tyree won him a Super Bowl).
So that puts the QB rankings like this…
1. Tony Romo, DAL
2. Donovan McNabb, WAS
3. Eli Manning, NYG
4. Kevin Kolb, PHI
So now we move to the RBs. Washington immediately gets last place because of their belief that 3 washed-up running backs (Portis, Johnson, Parker) will equate to 1 good one. Dallas gets first because they have 3 quality options (Barber, Jones, Choice) and I give the Eagles the edge over the Giants because of the clear trend that younger backs with less mileage (McCoy) have a better chance of success than older backs with injury problems and high mileage (Jacobs).
That leaves Dallas as the obvious #1 overall, and the other 3 virtually tied if you average the rankings of QB and RB. Here’s what I’m going with…
1. Dallas
Man do they ever have a talented offense. And we haven’t even gotten to the offensive line yet. Bill Parcells would win 15 games with this team. Thank God for Wade Phillips.
2. New York
I weighted the QB’s differently, but Washington’s RB’s are so bad that I can’t put them ahead of NY. Add the fact that there is always the possibility that Eli Manning’s 2009 season was the start of an elite streak, and they go here.
3. Washington
If we had a bigger Eagles’ readership, I’m sure I’d catch some heat for this, but Kevin Kolb is just too much of an unknown to put the Eagles anywhere but last on this year. McNabb is a gigantic upgrade for the Redskins, who would deify him if he takes them to the playoffs year after year, something some Eagles’ fans found unacceptable.
4. Philadelphia
It’s not out of the realm of possibility that we could be #1 on this list as early as next year, but I have be realistic and objective here.
Final Thoughts
WhatifSports.com ran their simulations of the 2010 NFL season and determined that Kevin Kolb was the 12th best fantasy football prospect this year. One spot ahead of Adrian Peterson. It should be noted that their rankings heavily favor QBs and Kolb is ranked as the 11th best QB, but still, I looked at that and thought – what if Kevin Kolb can be a superstar right away? What if he can throw for 4,000 yards, limit his picks and be the guy who brings a title to Philadelphia? It’s possible, right? Sure. Right now anything is possible. Kolb is saying and doing the right things, but what happens when DeMarcus Ware and Justin Tuck are bearing down on him cannot be predicted. Or what happens after he’s been hit around 12 games into the season when a college season is usually over. Or a million other things.
Right now, with both Kolb and McCoy, it’s all about hope. That’s always the exciting thing with young players. I just hope that we can win as many games with them as we did with the guys they are replacing.
You say Vick appears to be completely worthesss, well that is not the opinion of Andy Reid, but then I guess that is why he has the job he has, and you…………………………………………….well that is another story entirely
I can’t really tell if you are taking a shot at me or Reid. It certainly would appear to be me, but any argument that Vick has provided any worth to this team thus far would be so off-base that I couldn’t take it seriously.
Add to that that all reports out of training camp are pretty much saying that Vick is incapable of completing passes, and I don’t see any reason to expect a bigger impact this year.
Is it possible? Sure. Anything is possible in sports. I won’t be holding my breath.
The first encounter I had with LeSean McCoy was the 2007 college football season where McCoy singlehandedly took West Virginia out of the National Championship game. ( One of my favorite all-time teams up there with the 05′ and 06′ USC Trojans) They had Pat White, Steve Slaton, True Freshman Noel Devine, and Darius Reynard. star studded team. They go into the final game at home against Pitt and the game just taken over by McCoy, he was unstopable, every time he touched the ball it seemed like it was for 10yds and a 1st down. That game alone give me all the confidence in the world in McCoy. ( I also at that point hated him because he totally screwed white and slaton at a national championship–they went on to smash Oklahoma in the Fiesta Bowl)
Well Pete, I really hate to disappoint you, I was at training camp a couple of days last week, and if the reports said that Vick wasn’t doing well or not completing passes, well just ain’t true. Not to say he didn’t have a few incomplete passes, he did, but hey so did Kolb. Not to mention all reports I have read said he looks pretty good. Long way from saying he has “proven to be completely worthless”. Maybe instead of relying on someone else to tell you what’s happening take a look for yourself.
Rambo -
Well, if going to one practice qualifies you as an expect, then golly darn, I’m excited to read your blog when you start it.
As an aside, did you see the Phillies game last night? Scott Podsednik went 2 for 3 for the Dodgers!!! He must be a career .600 hitter because one game or practice obviously is completely indicative of how good a player is! I’m very excited for his HOF induction.
As for Vick – let’s look at actual, real numbers.
In 2009, he ran for an astounding 95 yards, good for 113th in the NFL. Only 3 more yards and he would have tied Brady Quinn! But that’s OK, because he made up for that with an even better 86 passing yards (53rd in the NFL), on 46.2% completion percentage! Man, if that was a batting average, he’d almost be as good as Scott Podsednik!
He has a career 53.7% completion rate. That’s the 2nd worst among ALL QBs WITH AT LEAST 1,700 PASS ATTEMPTS SINCE 1990. So, when he was healthy, and younger, Vick was 2nd most inaccurate passer in the last 2 decades. It used to be OK because he could run like the wind. He clearly can’t anymore. His 4.0 rush average last year tells you that. I’m sure that one practice you saw was the moment he turned his career around and suddenly became able to throw the ball to receivers though.
“Michael Vick, on the other hand, was inaccurate during 7-on-7 drills inside the red zone.” – Inquirer, July 27th
“Dimitri Patterson, who the Eagles have been talking up in recent days, intercepted a Mike Vick pass in the end zone at the end of a two-minute drill. He stepped in front of Jordan Norwood.” – Aug 11th
“Vick looked more on target today than yesterday, when his throws were erratic.” – July 28th
“Kolb looked accurate, while Michael Vick sprayed throws over receivers heads and low and outside. Vick put in additional time throwing with coaches after practice.” – July 27th
I don’t feel like spending the rest of the night finding quotes backing me up. But I’m going off years of data and tons of reports, and you are going off one practice you went to.
Lose the attitude, and I’d love to have a civil, intelligent conversation about Philadelphia sports. That’s what we tend to do around here.
Well Pete according to you, you didn’t go to any practices, you are reporting what someone has told you or maybe something that you have read. I am familar with Vick’s stats, I also know that he (Vick) didn’t buy those three probowls he attended, I also know that he carried that Atlanta team on his back. You are speaking of incompletions, well Kolb was throwing quite a few if not more incompletions than Vick, and he’s the starter, I guess whoever you were getting your reports from, just forgot to mention that huh.
Oh yes Pete, I have no attitude, I’m just speaking my opinion, just as you are speaking yours, just because I don’t agree with you that Vick is worthless, certainly doesn’t mean I have an attitude.
I don’t get it – did you just make the argument that Kolb is as inaccurate as Vick? It’s a little early in the morning to be drinking.
Did you also make the argument that he is at the same talent level he was with the Falcons?
As for your attitude/tone, this isn’t middle school dude, your first comment was a shot at me. You can’t deny something that is in writing.
Rambo - At no point in any of your 4 comments have you presented a coherent counter argument opposed to Pete’s: “Michael Vick has proven completely worthless” comment and argument to back it up.
All you’ve essentially said is “I was at training camp a couple of days last week.” Really? Is that all you have? If you were there, why not add some value to the conversation and write up your detailed report of what you witnessed.
What’s been quoted here are the observations of media outlets, who were also at training camp AND have far more access than you or any other fan.
You said you are “familiar with Vick’s stats” – are you really? Prove it. You haven’t provided any such stats in defense of your opinion.
No one ever said people can’t have differing opinions, but they need to at least have some semblance of rationale behind them if a real sports debate is to take place.
You’ve done nothing but take a shot at Pete personally and provided weak – at best – opinions that hold no weight here. That’s not how we get down here on this blog.
Step up your game.
Not to pick sides here since I could really care less about Vick. But if he is as good as you say he is and is back to his pre jail form, how come not one of the other 31 teams traded for him this off season to be a starter. If he is still a pro bowl QB a $5.25 million contract is a bargin if you ask me.
Even in his pre jail form he wasn’t a good QB. He was an elite athlete that happened to play QB. I think his career completion % of 53.7% and 72 TDs to 52 INTs supports that. Now that he isn’t the elite athete anymore what are we left with for 5.25m?
Pete, don’t think I missed you sneakily inserting your Notre Dame homerism for Justin Tuck into this post…
Our D looked really good today.
Starters, not the bench. haha
I don’t know that I can see rating McNabb ahead of Eli Manning in the quarterback portion of the backfield.
I figure it like this.
About 3 years ago, close to definitely.
But now, Donovan goes to work with a brand new offensive unit, and while training camp might make them cohesive, it also might not, and Eli has now played with essentially, save yearly changes, of course, the same personnel for certainly a longer period of time. 5-6 years now? Advantage: Manning.
Under the pretense of a smothering rush in the playoffs, Donavan showed peak form of a longstanding problem. Short game accuracy. He doesn’t seem overly accurate even with less pressure. Advantage:Manning.
Donavan still has good escapibility, and converting that into runs might resurface in Washington, but its very doubtful that it occurs to a frequent, or impactful quantity. Additionaly, its a grueling sport, but I suspect Donavan is more likely to get injured in such a scenario than Manning. Base that on age, not to mention history. Eli is a pocket guy, but it seems reasonable to say he’s more likely to be standing at the end of a game.
Leadership might be debatable, but if what seems to be the premise of the change on the Eagles is read right, as coming down to essentially Reid’s decision that the time had come for a change, that makes me wonder whether Donovan’s quirkiness, for lack of a better word or description might not anchor the Redskins as much as Eli seems to have good command and respect of his fellow offensive players.
I’d expect Manning to have a better year than McNabb. I’d be mildly surprised if Donovan’s best days aren’t in the past.
I realize it was game one of the preseason, but damn, the Eagles starters and offensive backups looked much better than I anticipated.
I really am embracing this youth movement and forgot just how much I like the Birds, and how impressive they are sans Donovan.
Dannie, I guess the media outlet you were referring to lied. So it’s taking a shot at someone, simply because you’re not in agreement with them…………………….yeah okay. To be perfectly honest I don’t care how you “get down on this blog”.
I am a transplanted Philly guy living in DC (arlington,va) area. I am so intrigued by the opening game Skins versus Cowgirls. The subplots are endless. But the biggie is that we should get a view into who was more responsible for how bad McNabb and the offense looked against Dallas the last 2 games. IF McNabb looks good Reid will get torn up, somewhat proving that he and his stubborn schemes were the reason we got clobbered – and we all may be wondering how many titles we would have had during the McNabb era with just a bit more of a coach (ala Shanahan). If it looks like the same old McNabb, then it will be amazing how quickly PHilly fans totally forget about him, and most will think Reid was brilliant and maybe maximized what we could get out of MbNabb. What makes it interesting is if the Skins do win, it will be with a run-oriented system, exact opposite of Reid. Skins have about the same caliber of weapons on offense that McNabb finished with last year overall, but better RBs and worse receivers that Philly had then. So it will be interesting
Phillyfan,
I dont think it’s as simple as Mcnabb vs. Reid. Iam not a big Mcnabb supporter (and often times not a Reid supporter either), but in Mcnabbs defense he is not entirely to blame for what happened against Dallas. He got zero help from both his defense and offensive line.
To follow up a bit, it’s hard to put all the blame on either Mcnabb or Reid. There were many causes as to why last years team didnt perform well in those last two games. like i said, injuries on the offenseive line and poor defense, but also lack of expierence and youth at the skill postitions (Jackson exposed and shut down), first year defenseive cordinator, no Stew Bradley/healthy Westbrook, and the young guys not meshing well with the older Mcnabb. So with that said i dont think people will be calling for Reid’s head if Mcnabb lights it up week one against Dallas. If he lights up all year, well then that might be a different story.
Westbrook signed with the 9ers. Good squad to play it out with. Semi-contender, good coach, nice city.
Has Runyan retired? TIA
False start against the Eagles defense….. is that even possible? The refs blew that call really badly or confused false start with offsides. Very,very strange call.