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Pitchers and catchers report on Thursday, and as with the start of all spring trainings, there are more questions than answers at this point. I’ve put together a list of all the stuff that is on my mind going into the season. Some deal with the Spring, some further down the line. A lot of the questions will be dealt with in more depth in the Phillies’ season previews, but this is a good starting off point.
Which Cole Hamels will we see?
No question is more important to the Phillies’ 2010 title hopes. Looking to build off his historic 2008 playoff performance, Hamels’ ERA ballooned from 3.09 to 4.32 in 2009. He admitted he wasn’t fully prepared for the season, and never really seemed to recover. However, his K/9, and BB/9 rates were very similar to 2008, which implies he was the victim of some bad luck. However, those who watched him know that wasn’t the whole story. We need him to be a top pitcher this year and not leave Halladay alone at the top.
Which Brad Lidge will we see?
We can only hope that injuries were a big part of the historically bad season Brad Lidge put together last year. Lidge has had a couple minor surgeries this off-season and hopes to regain his 2008 form. Even if they injuries weren’t the issue, hopefully Lidge thinks they were, which would help get his mental struggles together. If he struggles, Madson or Danys Baez will step in.
How good will Roy Halladay be?
Last year, Javier Vazquez went from the AL Central (4.67 ERA in 2008) to the NL East (2.87 ERA in 2009). Roy Halladay is coming from the toughest division in baseball, where he had a 2.79 ERA last year. Just how low can he go in 2010?
How much will J.A. Happ regress?
Happ is not going to put up a 2.93 ERA this season, he’s just not that good a pitcher. Will he pull a Kyle Kendrick and completely fall off the map? Or will he cement himself as a rotation staple for the next couple years? Most fancy forecasting tools have him with an ERA in the low 4’s this year.
Can Raauuuuuullll stave off injury?
Ibanez will turn 38 this season, and never seemed to recover from his groin injury he suffered in June. He had a 1.027 OPS at the time of injury and a .772 OPS after he returned. Maybe it was a particularly nagging injury, or maybe his body isn’t healing quite as fast as it used to. Either way, it would be nice for him to stay healthy and not have to worry about it.
Which player will make it tough to keep him off the 25-man?
The 25-man roster is pretty much set, but there are always some standouts in spring training that make it tough to keep them off. I’m not sure Scott Mathieson has a guaranteed spot on the roster, but I think he’s going to impress. Look for reliever B.J. Rosenberg to make an impression as well. On the offensive end, I’m curious to see what Dewayne Wise can do.
Who will disappoint in 2010?
Nothing ever goes completely as planned in baseball. There is always a player (or several) that you just assume will have a certain level of production, and they fall well short. Last year it was Hamels, Lidge and Jimmy Rollins. Happ and Ibanez certainly seem like a candidates this year, but I could also see it being someone like Jayson Werth, who everyone is just assuming will put up another Jason Bay/Matt Holliday type year, but doesn’t have a long track record yet.
Who will be our main competition in the NL East?
It certainly seems like the Braves are the biggest threat. Yes, they lost Javier Vazquez, but Tommy Hanson looks ready to dominate at an early age and Tim Hudson is back. On offense, they added Melky Cabrera, Troy Glaus and get a full year of Nate McClouth. The Mets still have a lot of talent, but still lack strong leadership and have pretty poor pitching after Johan. The Marlins still have the potential for a great staff and are always annoying. The Nats will be better, but their season will be more about Stephen Strasburg and perhaps Bryce Harper.
Is this the last we’ll see of Jayson Werth?
I used Jason Bay and Matt Holliday as examples in #7 because they both signed deals this off-season, and both had similar seasons to Werth in 2009. Bay, 31, signed for 4 years, $66 million (which could easily become 5 years, $80 million) and Holliday, 30, signed an absurd 7 year, $120 million deal. So what Werth, 30, demand if he has another big year? Probably something in the range of 5-6 years, $12-16 million a year. The Phillies would likely have to make a move to afford that. Ryan Howard might make some sense.
Is Jamie Moyer’s arm still attached?
I was certainly surprised to hear Ruben Amaro’s claim that the 5th starter spot was Jamie Moyer’s to lose. I assumed with his multiple off-season surgeries, poor 2009, and the fact that’s he, you know, 47, that it would be Kyle Kendrick’s to lose. We can only hope Moyer reclaims some of the 2008 magic that caused Rube to think a 2-year deal was a great idea. He was truly painful to watch last year when he was getting hit.
Can we see some consistency from Jimmy?
Jimmy is one of the streakiest players in the league and many times those streaks, both good and bad, can last months. Wouldn’t it be nice for Jimmy to just hit .270-.290 every month?
How will Shane Victorino react to the 7-spot?
Victorino isn’t really suited for the top of the line-up because of his bad OBP. In the 7-spot, he’ll likely be in clean-up duty when the middle of the line-up can’t get runs in. Pedro Feliz was one of the worst hitters in baseball last year (.694 OPS), but got 82 RBI in this line-up beacuse of his BA with RISP (.336). Can Victorino replicate that? It will also be interesting to see how it affects his stolen bases, as he’s not really going to be trying to get into scoring position for Ruiz and the pitcher as often as he would be from the 2-spot.
How will Placido Polanco affect the line-up?
Amaro clearly loved Polanco for the 2-spot, but will he really have that much an impact there? His career OBP is virtually identical to Victorino’s (.348 vs. .347), so he’s not going to be on-base all that much more. He does put a lot more balls in play so that could get Jimmy in scoring position more often, but is that really that big an impact? We’ll find out.
Can Utley or Howard steal the MVP from Pujols?
A Phillie has either won, or been in the running for an MVP each of the last 4 seasons. It’s going to be really tough to unseat Pujols, but if Utley stays healthy and puts together a signature season, or if Howard overwhelms voters with higher-than-normal HR and RBI numbers, it’s always possible.
Will Ruben regret not keeping Chan Ho and Scott Eyre?
These 2 guys were really solid for the Phillies during the stretch run, but Amaro didn’t really put forth an effort to re-sign either. Instead, we signed Danys Baez and Jose Contreras and are hoping that Antonio Bastardo or Sergio Escalona can step into Eyre’s spot. If they don’t pan out, Amaro might catch some heat from the fans.
Can Scott Mathieson complete his amazing journey?
Mathieson had 3 major arm surgeries in 3 years and came back last year throwing 98mph and looking like he has a future as a late inning reliever. If he makes any sort of impact on the season, he will be one of the few pitchers to ever come back from 3 surgeries. I hope the Phillies give him a shot right away, as you really don’t know how long his arm will hold up and there is no reason wasting it in the minors.
Can the bench prove their worth?
In signing Ross Gload and Brian Schneider to multi-year contracts, Ruben Amaro spent a lot of money on the bench this year. It was necessary, as the bench was a huge disappointment last year, with both Greg Dobbs and Matt Stairs showing significant drop-off from 2008. Dobbs is now the only hold-over from the opening day 2008 bench, and hopefully that means our depth will once again be a strength and we can get our regualars some more rest without losing too much.
What do we have in Phillipe Aumont, J.C. Ramirez and Tyson Gillies?
After the controversial Cliff Lee trade – a lot of eyes are going to be on the players we got in return. All three will be at spring training, and fans be watching them closely.
How good can Domonic Brown be?
Far and away the Phillies’ best prospect, Brown is the only elite prospect in the system that survived the Cliff Lee and Roy Halladay deals. He is ranked by most scouting sites as a top-20 prospect, but he is far from a finished product. It’s important that Brown continues to improve and the Phillies are hoping he makes another jump this year.
Which prospect will come out of nowhere?
Prospecting is a fickle business and every year certain guys fall off the map, and certain guys come out of nowhere. The guys coming out of nowhere are always more fun. Last year Domingo Santana burst onto the scene and Kyle Drabek jumped from an injury risk to a top pitching prospect. This year, the Phillies have several young players who we aren’t really hearing about looking to make a splash. Some names to look out for that aren’t on my top-20 prospects: OF Jiwan James, OF Leandro Castro and RHP Colby Shreve.
That’s all I got – but I’m sure there is a lot on your mind that I missed – so feel free to add on in the comments…
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{ 23 comments… read them below or add one }
Pete:
Can’t wait for the season to start! A couple things i’ll be watching, besides what you listed, will be the health of J.C. Romaro (who will be evan more important this year without Scott Eyre). Adding some speed on the bench for that late inning PR (like Bourne) when we have to manufacture a run.
p.s. F.Y.I. one of the contestants on this year’s “Amazing Race” program is a coach in the Phil’s minor league system named Steve who is running with his daughter.
Bob
Bob-
Good point on Romero. If he can’t go, Bastardo and Escalona are gonna have a lot of pressure on them.
As for the speed, Dewayne Wise would fit that mold, but there isn’t any room for him on the bench right now.
Interesting about the Amazing Race. I’ve never seen it – not a big reality show person – but it must be good, it always wins awards.
You covered just about everything as usual Pete. The one thing I am concerned about is the drop off in defense at third base. Especially if Moyer is the fifth starter like Amaro is saying he will be. Pedro was barely short of a vacuum over there and we often forget Polanco has not played third in like 4-5 years. That is a problem. Pedro made the plays look so easy…with him and Rollins on that side sometimes I used to think we could have put a statue of Ryan at first with a glove on it and they would hit that spot. Howard saw more strikes from Jimmy and Pedro than he did at the plate. I will be watching Mr. Polanco over there very closely.
Richie -
Very true – I have confidence in Polanco, but it’s def. going to be a drop-off of some sort. For all of Pedro Feliz’ faults, his frozen rope to first was a thing of beauty.
It really is a shame too because Pedro’s flaws were so fixable. He was so lacsidasicle(sp?) at the plate just first pitch swinging and flying out when you need a ground ball. He was a much better hitter in San Fran. I was so excited when we snagged him. Oh well maybe it was the juice who knows?
Pete, some thoughts on your questions:
The Braves, with a little luck, may win the NL East this year. No one else will challege us if we stay healthy.
1) You mean imply, not infer. And yes, he should improve due just to luck. Of course, this will be attributed to Halladay’s maturing influence.
2) The Million Dollar question: Lidge was not as good as his ‘08 numbers showed, but he did seem to be as bad as his ‘09 numbers showed. We should know the answer to this very quickly.
3) Awesome
4) A lot – maybe to 5+ ERA range, if he’s as unlucky in 2010 as he was lucky in ‘09. Hopefully, he’ll hit a low 4 ERA as you said.
5) We’ll see a lot of platooning in left, both with Mayberry and maybe with Domonic.
6) and 7) Time will tell
9) If Dom develops, 100% yes. If not, maybe not, but probably yes. Too many of our young’uns are upcoming OFs to pay him what he’s worth, when we can get 80% of him for $400,000.
10) lol
11) Jimmy is what he is at this point, and with some regression in BABIP should improve to being an above average NL SS. His lack of walks will always make him inconsistent, but hopefully he’ll have a better overall year than ‘09.
12) Shane’s speed will serve him better in the #7 hole than the #2 hole, as getting into scoring position via steals which will help in front of singles hitters more than in front of the big boppers. Might squeeze another 5 or so runs over the season due to this.
13) Considering who he’s replacing, this is the single biggest improvement of the offseason, good for 1-2 more wins this year.
14) Not unless Pujols breaks both of this legs, and even then, maybe not.
15) No
16) Don’t know
17) Yes
18) We’ll see
19) Good to great, but not this year.
20) Can’t wait to find out!!!
Thanks for the post, this was a lot of fun!
Great post, I really need my Phillies Phix as often as I can possibly get it. Another big factor to the Phillies retaining the NLEast title is how bad are they going to start this season? Always seems to me like they drop 5 out of the first 7 games and are already trying to make up ground from the start. Lets see if they can get interested from the beginning of the year and start something like 7-2 or 8-3. That would really worry the other teams in the NLEast in my opinion. They would be trying to keep up from the start, and it’s hard to chase down the three time champs of a division.
I think we’ll see Hamels the “ace”
Halladay will be Halladay and hopefully his influence and advice will help prevent Happ from sliding too much.
Lidge is still a scary thought but if his problems were due to injuries, then we may luck out and get a good year (although I’m sure they’ll start grooming Madson as a closer as I’m sure Lidge won’t be resigned).
Ibanez – I don’t think he’ll have the success he had the beginning of last year but I don’t think he’ll be as bad as his second half either.
Victorino should bat 6th, not 7th
The bench needs more at bats or they’ll be as disappointing as last year.
I almost hope that Werth does backslide a bit – at least until they can resign him to a lesser contract, lol.
Looking forward to this season – even with all the question marks I think they are going straight back to the WS. GO PHILS!!!!
I think you might have missed 2 things, Pete.
Can Carlos Ruiz to any extent break out as a hitter, and provide some pop at the bottom of the lineup, and can Ryan Madson pitch more like he did in 08 than 09.
Hardly major, just covering a little more ground than your extensive list.
I like your practical position on Werth.
I’m thinking Doc goes 18-6. Some gems to be included. I believe that’s conservative, but things don’t always go by plan.
I would really like to see the team get of to a pretty good April. I don’t feel like giving Atlanta any handicaps. That’s a good ballclub over there.
Would like to see Mathieson start with the club. Why not give Lidge and Romero time to get right and see what this kid can do. Saw him in Reading mow down guys, He is intimidating on the mound and hit 100 more than a few times. Seems to really go at hitters and when was the last time you saw a Phillie with that kind of heat?
KB-
That’s another question that could be added: ” Can we finally get off to a quick start?”
JW-
Agree, there is no reason not to put Mathieson in the majors right away, IMO.
baseball prospectus’ top-11 phillies prospects came out today… most of the article is premium content, but here are some interesting points for those who don’t have it…
found this interesting, I forget if we were discussing this here….
“Where the items are sold also impacts the bottom line. Brandreth said if an item is sold by the Phillies either at the ballpark or in their catalog, the royalty money goes to the team. For items sold elsewhere, such as other retailers or online, the money goes to Major League Baseball’s pool shared by all 30 teams.”
Pete – don’t take this the wrong way but are you conflicted on Howard? In the above post you are talking about perhaps getting rid of him to sign WErth, and then lower you suggest he is MVP material. Or are you just assuming we won’t be able to resign him after 2011? What people don’t seem to understand is when they talk about trading him away because otherwise he will walk to the yanks for 20 mill per is that if we traded him today or even next year we aren’t giving him away for nothing. IF you say sign Werth and trade Howard, there would be a fan revolt if they just traded him for prospects. You would trade him for a front line pitcher – but you are talking 15-20 mill per year anyway. So you are back to where you began, you can’t trade Howard and sign Werth. That is why I think they will simply let him go to free agency – unless they happen to find alot of extra money laying around. In my ideal world they let Rollins go after this year and use his salary to sign Werth. Then just get a .275 hitting defensive specialist shortstop for 5-6 mill.
Few things I’m looking for:
I’m with you on Mathieson and Wise. I want to see what they can do (1) because I think they have legit talent and (2) because I don’t think the alternatives are so good that you can’t afford to move off the roster for even one day.
And I’m hoping Halladay has the effect on Hamels and Happ that convinced AJ Burnett to sign in Toronto in the first place. Burnett went there to work with the bet and find out what made him the best. And it helped him become a better pitcher.
Related to that, I really want to see what Happ does. I’ve liked him since ‘08 and really think he’s got the stuff to contend with Blanton for the number three spot and eventually take it.
I read somewhere, it may have been a link here, that Halladay has been at the clubhouse everyday at 7am for the past 5 weeks, getting in an extensive workout. Impressive.
The third thing, is the fifth spot on the rotation. I’m not even a little confident in Jamie Moyer right now. I like him a lot, as a player and a person, but I don’t think a 47 year old that spent more time in a hospital in the past 4 months than I have in a lifetime can be expected to perform on a championship-caliber squad. Then again, who knows, maybe that’s the only place he’ll be able to perform.
Polanco and Rollins will be my focus among position players. I’m anxious to see Polanco prove he was worth a three deal, I still don’t understand why it’s not a two year deal. And, I want to see if Rollins can prove that he’s worth a new deal. What’s he got left in the tank. I saw above that someone suggested we let him walk and bring in a adequately offensive, but excellently defensive replacement. That sounds like Rollins to me last year. Are there three better SS in baseball right now?
phillyfan-
here are my thoughts on Howard.
Realistically, how much more money can Howard command? He’s already at $20 mil – Even the Yankees and couldn’t go that much higher.
Stacy-
Not much. But you never know. His HR and RBI totals far surpass any player in the league, and those are the “money” numbers.
You have to think any team that has the pieces and need for Howard would be a contender. I mean, San Diego or Florida wouldn’t make that deal.
Can you imagine him coming back to Philly for a playoff game…
Pete: <<<What I would consider doing if I am Amaro, is shopping Howard at season’s end for either a starting pitcher or high-level prospects. If you trade him, re-sign Werth and move him to 1st base, opening up RF for Domonic Brown. Which would you rather have? Howard and Brown (with a SUPER lefty dominated line-up now) or Werth, Brown, 3 high-level prospects and $8 million to spend>>
Again, if you are concerned about salary you can’t resign Werth (which would be min 12 mill per) and shop howard at season’s end for a starting pitcher. Presumably, the only way that would make sense would be to get a front-line starter, which means you really don’t save much in salary, if any. As we established, with this payroll you can’t resign Werth as is. Wow – trade for prospects only. Even high-level, I just don’t see that happening. That is a huge risk for to the team chemistry and fan-base. Imagine how the guys in the locker room would feel to see Howard gone and nothing at all to replace him. On thing that would be facinating is if he puts up two more productive years will be the price he commands and the bidding war. I would imagine he would be the perfect replacement in the batting order for a declining AROD.
depends on the prospects though – they can be MLB ready guys. I think fans would know that they have to choose between Werth and Howard, and I’m sure everyone will have an opinion on who they should keep. You would really be “replacing” Howard with Werth (or Brown, however you want to look at it).
If you shop Howard for a starter, who are you bumping out of the rotation? Not Halladay, Hamels or Blanton – they are locked up. That leaves Happ and probably Kendrick (who I agree will replace Moyer for #5 this year). I’m not saying there’s not room for improvement there but not at the expense of Howard, especially if he improves his strike-out issues.
here’s the thing with Howard. If you aren’t going to re-sign him (my guess is his demands will be too high) and you aren’t going to trade him, and you aren’t going to sign Werth. In 2012 you start the year without either player and nothing to show to for it.
So the options are…