Comments on: 2010 Phillies Spring Training Preview: 20 Questions To Ponder http://www.reclinergm.com/2010-phillies-spring-training-preview-20-questions-to-ponder/ Thu, 09 Feb 2012 21:59:18 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.2 By: Pete http://www.reclinergm.com/2010-phillies-spring-training-preview-20-questions-to-ponder/#comment-28259 Pete Fri, 19 Feb 2010 18:37:51 +0000 http://www.reclinergm.com/?p=9245#comment-28259 <p>here's the thing with Howard. If you aren't going to re-sign him (my guess is his demands will be too high) and you aren't going to trade him, and you aren't going to sign Werth. In 2012 you start the year without either player and nothing to show to for it.</p> <p>So the options are...</p> <p><ol> <li>Re-sign Werth and not trade Howard (not going to happen due to payroll constraints)</li> <li>Let Werth go and resign Howard (risky given how much money/years Howard will likely demand)</li> <li>Resign neither (bring up prospects and maybe use money to sign some FAs)</li> <li>Re-sign Werth and trade Howard before he becomes a FA</li> </ol> <div>I still think #4 is the best long-term solution for the team since #1 doesn't seem like an option.</div> </p> here’s the thing with Howard. If you aren’t going to re-sign him (my guess is his demands will be too high) and you aren’t going to trade him, and you aren’t going to sign Werth. In 2012 you start the year without either player and nothing to show to for it.

So the options are…

  1. Re-sign Werth and not trade Howard (not going to happen due to payroll constraints)
  2. Let Werth go and resign Howard (risky given how much money/years Howard will likely demand)
  3. Resign neither (bring up prospects and maybe use money to sign some FAs)
  4. Re-sign Werth and trade Howard before he becomes a FA
I still think #4 is the best long-term solution for the team since #1 doesn’t seem like an option.

]]> By: Stacy http://www.reclinergm.com/2010-phillies-spring-training-preview-20-questions-to-ponder/#comment-28255 Stacy Fri, 19 Feb 2010 16:18:11 +0000 http://www.reclinergm.com/?p=9245#comment-28255 If you shop Howard for a starter, who are you bumping out of the rotation?  Not Halladay, Hamels or Blanton - they are locked up.  That leaves Happ and probably Kendrick (who I agree will replace Moyer for #5 this year).    I'm not saying there's not room for improvement there but not at the expense of Howard, especially if he improves his strike-out issues. If you shop Howard for a starter, who are you bumping out of the rotation?  Not Halladay, Hamels or Blanton – they are locked up.  That leaves Happ and probably Kendrick (who I agree will replace Moyer for #5 this year).    I’m not saying there’s not room for improvement there but not at the expense of Howard, especially if he improves his strike-out issues.

]]> By: Pete http://www.reclinergm.com/2010-phillies-spring-training-preview-20-questions-to-ponder/#comment-28252 Pete Fri, 19 Feb 2010 14:36:31 +0000 http://www.reclinergm.com/?p=9245#comment-28252 <p>depends on the prospects though - they can be MLB ready guys. I think fans would know that they have to choose between Werth and Howard, and I'm sure everyone will have an opinion on who they should keep. You would really be "replacing" Howard with Werth (or Brown, however you want to look at it).</p> depends on the prospects though – they can be MLB ready guys. I think fans would know that they have to choose between Werth and Howard, and I’m sure everyone will have an opinion on who they should keep. You would really be “replacing” Howard with Werth (or Brown, however you want to look at it).

]]> By: phillyfan http://www.reclinergm.com/2010-phillies-spring-training-preview-20-questions-to-ponder/#comment-28247 phillyfan Fri, 19 Feb 2010 13:16:29 +0000 http://www.reclinergm.com/?p=9245#comment-28247 Pete: <<<What I would consider doing if I am Amaro, is shopping Howard at season’s end for either a starting pitcher or high-level prospects. If you trade him, re-sign Werth and move him to 1st base, opening up RF for Domonic Brown. <strong>Which would you rather have? Howard and Brown (with a SUPER lefty dominated line-up now) or Werth, Brown, 3 high-level prospects and $8 million to spend>> Again, if you are concerned about salary you can't resign Werth (which would be min 12 mill per) and shop howard at season's end for a starting pitcher.  Presumably, the only way that would make sense would be to get a front-line starter, which means you really don't save much in salary, if any.  As we established, with this payroll you can't resign Werth as is.  Wow - trade for prospects only.  Even high-level, I just don't see that happening.  That is a huge risk for to the team chemistry and fan-base.  Imagine how the guys in the locker room would feel to see Howard gone and nothing at all to replace him.  On thing that would be facinating is if he puts up two more productive years will be the price he commands and the bidding war.  I would imagine he would be the perfect replacement in the batting order for a declining AROD.</strong> Pete: <<<What I would consider doing if I am Amaro, is shopping Howard at season’s end for either a starting pitcher or high-level prospects. If you trade him, re-sign Werth and move him to 1st base, opening up RF for Domonic Brown. Which would you rather have? Howard and Brown (with a SUPER lefty dominated line-up now) or Werth, Brown, 3 high-level prospects and $8 million to spend>>

Again, if you are concerned about salary you can’t resign Werth (which would be min 12 mill per) and shop howard at season’s end for a starting pitcher.  Presumably, the only way that would make sense would be to get a front-line starter, which means you really don’t save much in salary, if any.  As we established, with this payroll you can’t resign Werth as is.  Wow – trade for prospects only.  Even high-level, I just don’t see that happening.  That is a huge risk for to the team chemistry and fan-base.  Imagine how the guys in the locker room would feel to see Howard gone and nothing at all to replace him.  On thing that would be facinating is if he puts up two more productive years will be the price he commands and the bidding war.  I would imagine he would be the perfect replacement in the batting order for a declining AROD.

]]> By: Chris McC http://www.reclinergm.com/2010-phillies-spring-training-preview-20-questions-to-ponder/#comment-28140 Chris McC Wed, 17 Feb 2010 20:14:27 +0000 http://www.reclinergm.com/?p=9245#comment-28140 You have to think any team that has the pieces and need for Howard would be a contender.  I mean, San Diego or Florida wouldn't make that deal.   Can you imagine him coming back to Philly for a playoff game... You have to think any team that has the pieces and need for Howard would be a contender.  I mean, San Diego or Florida wouldn’t make that deal.
 
Can you imagine him coming back to Philly for a playoff game…

]]> By: Pete http://www.reclinergm.com/2010-phillies-spring-training-preview-20-questions-to-ponder/#comment-28128 Pete Wed, 17 Feb 2010 16:59:03 +0000 http://www.reclinergm.com/?p=9245#comment-28128 <p>Stacy-</p> <p>Not much. But you never know. His HR and RBI totals far surpass any player in the league, and those are the "money" numbers.</p> Stacy-

Not much. But you never know. His HR and RBI totals far surpass any player in the league, and those are the “money” numbers.

]]> By: Stacy http://www.reclinergm.com/2010-phillies-spring-training-preview-20-questions-to-ponder/#comment-28127 Stacy Wed, 17 Feb 2010 16:54:53 +0000 http://www.reclinergm.com/?p=9245#comment-28127 Realistically, how much more money can Howard command?  He's already at $20 mil - Even the Yankees and couldn't go that much higher. Realistically, how much more money can Howard command?  He’s already at $20 mil – Even the Yankees and couldn’t go that much higher.

]]> By: Pete http://www.reclinergm.com/2010-phillies-spring-training-preview-20-questions-to-ponder/#comment-28109 Pete Wed, 17 Feb 2010 14:13:30 +0000 http://www.reclinergm.com/?p=9245#comment-28109 <p>phillyfan-</p> <p>here are my thoughts on Howard.</p> <p><ol> <li>He's a once in a lifetime power hitter and run producer. I like him a lot and was very pleased with the effort he put into getting into shape last season. </li> <li>That being said - HR and RBI are slightly overvalued stats when it comes to salary. When Howard becomes a FA in 2012 (an off-season where he will turn <strong>32</strong>) he's going to want a 5/6 year, $20 million+ deal. I don't think that will be a smart deal for someone his size, and his age.  If we did re-sign him, I would be hopeful he could stay productive, but that would just be the fan in me. </li> <li>Howard also has some considerable weaknesses: Defense, strike-outs, neutralized by lefties, doesn't take walks. </li> <li>What I would consider doing if I am Amaro, is shopping Howard at season's end for either a starting pitcher or high-level prospects. If you trade him, re-sign Werth and move him to 1st base, opening up RF for Domonic Brown. <strong>Which would you rather have? Howard and Brown (with a SUPER lefty dominated line-up now) or Werth, Brown, 3 high-level prospects and $8 million to spend</strong> (presumably the difference between Werth and Howard's salary. Or you could theoretically trade out the 3 prospects and part of the $8 million for an actual player we get back for Howard). I think I'd prefer the 2nd option. </li> </ol></p> phillyfan-

here are my thoughts on Howard.

  1. He’s a once in a lifetime power hitter and run producer. I like him a lot and was very pleased with the effort he put into getting into shape last season.
  2. That being said – HR and RBI are slightly overvalued stats when it comes to salary. When Howard becomes a FA in 2012 (an off-season where he will turn 32) he’s going to want a 5/6 year, $20 million+ deal. I don’t think that will be a smart deal for someone his size, and his age.  If we did re-sign him, I would be hopeful he could stay productive, but that would just be the fan in me.
  3. Howard also has some considerable weaknesses: Defense, strike-outs, neutralized by lefties, doesn’t take walks.
  4. What I would consider doing if I am Amaro, is shopping Howard at season’s end for either a starting pitcher or high-level prospects. If you trade him, re-sign Werth and move him to 1st base, opening up RF for Domonic Brown. Which would you rather have? Howard and Brown (with a SUPER lefty dominated line-up now) or Werth, Brown, 3 high-level prospects and $8 million to spend (presumably the difference between Werth and Howard’s salary. Or you could theoretically trade out the 3 prospects and part of the $8 million for an actual player we get back for Howard). I think I’d prefer the 2nd option.
]]> By: Chris McC. http://www.reclinergm.com/2010-phillies-spring-training-preview-20-questions-to-ponder/#comment-28107 Chris McC. Wed, 17 Feb 2010 13:28:33 +0000 http://www.reclinergm.com/?p=9245#comment-28107 Few things I'm looking for:   I'm with you on Mathieson and Wise.  I want to see what they can do (1) because I think they have legit talent and (2) because I don't think the alternatives are so good that you can't afford to move off the roster for even one day.   And I'm hoping Halladay has the effect on Hamels and Happ that convinced AJ Burnett to sign in Toronto in the first place.  Burnett went there to work with the bet and find out what made him the best.  And it helped him become a better pitcher.   Related to that, I really want to see what Happ does.  I've liked him since '08 and really think he's got the stuff to contend with Blanton for the number three spot and eventually take it.   I read somewhere, it may have been a link here, that Halladay has been at the clubhouse everyday at 7am for the past 5 weeks, getting in an extensive workout.  Impressive.   The third thing, is the fifth spot on the rotation.  I'm not even a little confident in Jamie Moyer right now.  I like him a lot, as a player and a person, but I don't think a 47 year old that spent more time in a hospital in the past 4 months than I have in a lifetime can be expected to perform on a championship-caliber squad.  Then again, who knows, maybe that's the <em>only </em>place he'll be able to perform.   Polanco and Rollins will be my focus among position players.  I'm anxious to see Polanco prove he was worth a three deal, I still don't understand why it's not a two year deal.  And, I want to see if Rollins can prove that he's worth a new deal.  What's he got left in the tank.  I saw above that someone suggested we let him walk and bring in a adequately offensive, but excellently defensive replacement.  That sounds like Rollins to me last year.  Are there three better SS in baseball right now? Few things I’m looking for:
 
I’m with you on Mathieson and Wise.  I want to see what they can do (1) because I think they have legit talent and (2) because I don’t think the alternatives are so good that you can’t afford to move off the roster for even one day.
 
And I’m hoping Halladay has the effect on Hamels and Happ that convinced AJ Burnett to sign in Toronto in the first place.  Burnett went there to work with the bet and find out what made him the best.  And it helped him become a better pitcher.
 
Related to that, I really want to see what Happ does.  I’ve liked him since ’08 and really think he’s got the stuff to contend with Blanton for the number three spot and eventually take it.
 
I read somewhere, it may have been a link here, that Halladay has been at the clubhouse everyday at 7am for the past 5 weeks, getting in an extensive workout.  Impressive.
 
The third thing, is the fifth spot on the rotation.  I’m not even a little confident in Jamie Moyer right now.  I like him a lot, as a player and a person, but I don’t think a 47 year old that spent more time in a hospital in the past 4 months than I have in a lifetime can be expected to perform on a championship-caliber squad.  Then again, who knows, maybe that’s the only place he’ll be able to perform.
 
Polanco and Rollins will be my focus among position players.  I’m anxious to see Polanco prove he was worth a three deal, I still don’t understand why it’s not a two year deal.  And, I want to see if Rollins can prove that he’s worth a new deal.  What’s he got left in the tank.  I saw above that someone suggested we let him walk and bring in a adequately offensive, but excellently defensive replacement.  That sounds like Rollins to me last year.  Are there three better SS in baseball right now?

]]> By: phillyfan http://www.reclinergm.com/2010-phillies-spring-training-preview-20-questions-to-ponder/#comment-28103 phillyfan Wed, 17 Feb 2010 03:21:05 +0000 http://www.reclinergm.com/?p=9245#comment-28103 Pete - don't take this the wrong way but are you conflicted on Howard?  In the above post you are talking about perhaps getting rid of him to sign WErth, and then lower you suggest he is MVP material.  Or are you just assuming we won't be able to resign him after 2011?  What people don't seem to understand is when they talk about trading him away because otherwise he will walk to the yanks for 20 mill per is that if we traded him today or even next year we aren't giving him away for nothing.  IF you say sign Werth and trade Howard, there would be a fan revolt if they just traded him for prospects. You would trade him for a front line pitcher - but you are talking 15-20 mill per year anyway.  So you are back to where you began, you can't trade Howard and sign Werth.  That is why I think they will simply let him go to free agency - unless they happen to find alot of extra money laying around.  In my ideal world they let Rollins go after this year and use his salary to sign Werth.  Then just get a .275 hitting defensive specialist shortstop for 5-6 mill. Pete – don’t take this the wrong way but are you conflicted on Howard?  In the above post you are talking about perhaps getting rid of him to sign WErth, and then lower you suggest he is MVP material.  Or are you just assuming we won’t be able to resign him after 2011?  What people don’t seem to understand is when they talk about trading him away because otherwise he will walk to the yanks for 20 mill per is that if we traded him today or even next year we aren’t giving him away for nothing.  IF you say sign Werth and trade Howard, there would be a fan revolt if they just traded him for prospects. You would trade him for a front line pitcher – but you are talking 15-20 mill per year anyway.  So you are back to where you began, you can’t trade Howard and sign Werth.  That is why I think they will simply let him go to free agency – unless they happen to find alot of extra money laying around.  In my ideal world they let Rollins go after this year and use his salary to sign Werth.  Then just get a .275 hitting defensive specialist shortstop for 5-6 mill.

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