When Sam Dalembert is the best remaining free agent, you know the rosters are set enough to get going on some predictions.
Like the NBA season, these previews will be shortened.
1. Chicago Bulls (2nd in East, 3rd in NBA)
Who is new: Rip Hamilton, Jimmy Butler
Why are they here: Probably the most complete team in the league, but lacking that secondary superstar power
Most important player: Carlos Boozer. They signed him to be an interior force, and he’s wasn’t quite that in his first season. He needs to improve in his second for this team to win a championship.
Outlook: The biggest challenger to the Heat in the East. They have enough depth to wear them down, but the Heat will have more depth as well. It would be surprising to me if the Eastern Finals were anything but Bulls/Heat.
2. Indiana Pacers (7th in East, 16th in NBA)
Who is new: David West, George Hill
Why are they here: Improved all around. George Hill gives them an upgrade at SG and David West, if healthy, is a huge upgrade at PF. The trio of those 2 and Danny Granger has the potential to be very effective. Good depth all around with Tyler Hansbrough, Paul George and Jeff Foster.
Most important player: David West. If he is fully recovered from his knee injury, he is an all-star caliber PF and will give this team an extra dynamic.
Outlook: A big winner in the off-season, this is a very intriguing team for me. Will be in the mix for that 4th seed in the East after Miami, Chicago and Boston.
3. Milwaukee Bucks (9th in East, 18th in NBA)
Who is new: Stephen Jackson, Mike Dunleavy, Beno Udrih, Shaun Livingston, Tobias Harris
Why are they here: After being an up-and-comer the year before, the Bucks took a big step back last year. They are currently a borderline playoff team with a lot of new parts and their success will be predicated on how those parts fit.
Most important player: Brandon Jennings. I just don’t see this team going anywhere if their leading scorer is Brandon Jennings chucking it up there at 37-39%. He has to let the game come to him and increase his assists and shooting percentage by knowing the strengths and weaknesses in his game and adjusting accordingly.
Outlook: Will certainly be the mix for a playoff spot. If Jennings improves and Bogut stays healthy, they will probably get it.
4. Detroit Pistons (13th in East, 28th in NBA)
Who is new: Brandon Knight
Why are they here: They are a team full of role players. Not sure anyone on this team could be a top-3 guy on a championship caliber squad.
Most important player: Rodney Stuckey. Stuckey, who just signed a 3-year extension, will be looked upon to carry the scoring load. Will be interesting to see how high his scoring average will climb this year.
Outlook: Pistons are in full rebuilding mode. I actually found it a little strange they brough Tayshaun Prince back and that he would even want to be back.
5. Cleveland Cavaliers (14th in East, 29th in NBA)
Who is new: Kyrie Irving, Tristan Thompson, Omri Casspi
Why are they here: It’s all LeBron’s fault.
Most important player: Kyrie Irving. Obviously he is the big hope in Cleveland right now. Had a strange line in his first pre-season game last night (21 points on 4-14 shooting, 13-15 from the line, only 3 assists, 5 turnovers). I have absolutely no clue what kind of NBA player he can be.
Outlook: It is in the Cavs best interest to suck again this year, and they very likely will. If they can nab a top pick in the draft next year to pair with Irving, they could have a nice young core to build with.
Oh, hells yes. So happy the NBA is back. Looking forward to the rest of the previews.
Watch out for the Pacers, they’re going to make some noise this year in a super thin Eastern Conference. That David West pickup was huge for them and they already had a really solid core.
I wonder what the record is for most consecutive seasons with the #1 pick in the draft? Can’t be more than two or three, whatever it is it’s got to be within reach for the Cavs. Something to root for.
The East is a mess this year. Heat and Bulls obviously at the top, but after that the best team in the Conf. might just be the Hawks (Joe Johnson, Al Horford, Josh Smith and Marvin Williams isn’t a half bad core for a condensed season as long as Johnson shows up).
The Magic are going to have to blow their roster up and trade Dwight, the Celtics are super thin (especially after losing Green) and way too old for the shortened season. They could legitimately end up with the six seed. The Knicks fans are heading for a massive disappointment when they give up 120 points a night and Amare misses 20 games because D’Antoni played him 40 mins a game for the first month.
Sixers are in a great spot going in with both consistency and youth.
Agree with pretty much everything you said here.
The Sixers do have an opportunity to land in the 3-5 range seed-wise if they really play well.
Sixers went 41-41 last year after the 3-13 start which included a lot of Collins’ figuring stuff out, and a lot of bad luck. If you subscribe to the fact that the team starting this year is really at 38-28 (.575) caliber squad and assume that there will be some modest improvement from Holiday and Turner and everyone else plays about the same – it’s not unreasonable to say we could be in the .580-.600 win percentage range as a best case scenario. That would be in the 4th-5th seed range. Major improvement from Holiday and Turner, and maybe Young and Hawes as well, and who knows.
And should this whole thing go south, they’re actually in a position to get rid of Iguodala (trade) and Brand (amnesty) and have a ton (2 max guys plus) of cap in 2012-13. That said I’m really excited to watch this group play. Solid, improving PG, scorers off the bench, top-3 individual defender in the league, EB coming off an 81 game season, a coach with the trust of both the players and the FO, subtract one clumsy GM and add a seemingly committed and enthusiastic ownership group. Not much reason to not get excited.
Didn’t David West just have ACL surgery? No way this dude can be relied upon.
I didn’t understand the Prince signing either and I like A. Dayes’ potential as a possible Stojakovic type shooter at 6’11″. Pete, Monroe just a role player? In today’s N.B.A. the lack of good centers may allow him to reach an all star level and his physicalness surprised me last year along with his ability to play inside.
As far as the Pacers, I am not sold on them defensively and here is a crazy prediction; Hibbert and Hawes will have similar numbers this year, in the 13 and 8 range. It will be interesting to see their s.g. rotation, does P.George move to the backup s.f. role more?
I also think a Stuckey and B.Knight backcourt could be a good mix with Knight being the shooter to Stuckey’s slasher.
At some point someone will have to explain to me the theory behind why a shortened season hurts older teams? Because it makes little sense to me.
In my opinion It’s not the length, it’s the interval. In March the Celtics play 17 games in 28 days (5 BTBs) including 8 straight on the road in 13. That’s going to kill KG and Paul Pierce and Jermaine O’Neal won’t even make it to March. Doc Rivers could very well be playing Brandon Bass and Marquis Daniels 30 mins a night each in the middle of a playoff push. The C’s are so fucked.
I think Doc and Pop are both excellent at game and player management and fully expect them to ease their older guys into the season at the start, use their younger guys in heavy minutes, particularly in BTBs and only over exert their older guys when necessary.
Thing is, it’s only 66 games, but it will take the same form as an 82 game season – if a team locks up their playoff berth early the season is actually even shorter.
So where you’d have older guys breaking down mid way through or late in the season, a good coach is more likely to have win enough games early and through the tough stretches without burning them out, and really have them clicking and playing their best ball going into the shorten season playoffs – with less overall minutes of wear and tear on their bodies.
I do think the Celtics need to replace Jeff Green, and I am sure they will.
And end of the day these older teams were going to need to get some quality play from young players even in a full season . Guys like JaJuan Johnson, Avery Bradley, E’twan Moore on the Celtics. Rodrique Beaubois for Dallas. Tiago Splitter, Kawhi Leonard, DeJuan Blair for the Spurs and on down the line.
Time will tell, but I actually think there is an opportunity for the older teams to go into the playoffs fresher.
You’re right, few coaches can manage older guys better than Doc and Pop but, especially for the C’s, I don’t they’re deep enough in a season when you’re averaging a game every other night. On the other hand, what the Sixers and Pacers may lack in big name talent they’ll make up for with great youth AND consistency, could be a very good year for those squads. Time will indeed tell and that’s going to be one of the more interesting story lines to follow in what is sure to be a very interesting season.
The Boilermakers are gonna raise Celts spirits as the season progresses, my belief.
I actually think Speights could help Boston in their present shortage. Doc would forge a greater rapport with him in my opinion, their vets would influence him. Collins, Speights – oil, water. The weight’s gotta drop though before he makes a dent anywhere.
Ha Speights! rapport? influence?
imaginative theory.
What’s the basis of your denigration, smartass? It’s missing. The guy’s a human being, just like your cocky-behind-a-computer-screen self.
are you not behind a computer screen?
Speights might benefit from a new spot – I’m of the opinion he wouldn’t for very long though.
Chances are we will find out soon enough.
Yes I am, Pete. Why are you stickin’ your nose into it? jkay addressed me. I’ve answered.
Speights needs a change of scenery. It isn’t gonna work in Philadelphia. Many carry your opinion. I haven’t given up on him quite yet.
I guess brevity is not always clarity.
I didn’t know you had a soft spot for Speights. I just didn’t get where that extrapolation that a change of scenery would do him wonders bcos apparently Mo Cheeks, Doug Collins, numerous coaches and teammates’ influence was not sufficient, and he will get what he lacks elsewhere. There was just nothing to base the argument on since the player in question had a history of not doing thus.
I did not mean to personally insult Speights or offend you; I’m neutral about the former. I honestly wish the best for him. I think the only player I really have it in for is Spencer Hawes. But then, I guess it’s meaningless coming from a coward who hides behind a computer screen.
I keep wondering why Chicago is not on Howard’s short list of teams.
I’m really curious to see how Carlos Boozer’s contract/tenure plays out in Chi-town. I am firmly convinced he is the new Brand (overpaid, not productive enough to justify). He does not seem to make them that much better, and probably misses the slower footed Williams who patiently set him up in P&R as opposed to Mr. MVP that seems to be 102mph on a fast track to the hoop. Well at least they can amnesty him.
I really think that’s what’s coming for him. It didn’t make sense this year, given the lack of reasonable replacements, to pay him to play ball for another club but they’d be wise to do it next year, especially after the Eastern Finals this season when Bosh reminds everyone again he’s a top-10 player and, by comparison, makes Boozer look foolish.