The Phillies are pretty much done with their 25-man roster, but there is just enough news out there to fill up a post, and with pitchers and catchers less than a month away, I think we are ready to talk some real baseball.
- Arbitration figures were exchanged yesterday, the only surprising one was Joe Blanton‘s request for $10.25 million. The Phillies offered $7.5. I’m not entirely sure who Blanton thinks he is, as only 4 pitchers have ever asked for more than $10 million in arbitration: Tim Lincecum, Felix Hernandez, Francisco Rodriguez and Carlos Zambrano. $8.5 million seems fair to me.
- Shane Victorino will probably get a deal around $5 million and Carlos Ruiz around $2 million. Chad Durbin already settled for $2 million, which will put our payroll right around $140 million.
- Victorino might get more than that, as Phillies.com is reporting that they are looking to give him a multi-year deal to take him through his arbitration years (he is a FA in 2012). I wouldn’t expect more than a two-year deal, and the Phillies might see Tyson Gillies as his replacement in 2013.
- One player that could add to that is Eric Gagne, who will be throwing for the Phillies today. Gagne did not pitch in 2009 and was last seen blowing 7 saves in 17 tries for the Brewers in 2008. Who knows how he looks after a year off, but I can’t say I’d give him much more than the minimum and hope he pitches like he did for Texas in 2007 (2.16 ERA before being traded to Boston and losing it).
- Brandon Duckworth is a Phillie again! Kind of. Duck was signed to fill out the Lehigh Valley staff, he won’t even be invited to camp. He could see a spot start or two this year. Hopefully not.
I will begin working on my MLB preview soon. Unlike the last 2 years, I won’t be doing a separate preview for each of the 30 teams. Instead I will do 5 division previews, and then individual previews for the NL East teams and some sort of expanded Phillies’ preview.
Its nice to come here to this post and not have to sift through the ”CLIFF LEE would have only been $9 Million” nonsense, not recognizing the potential glut of prospects that he brought back that Blanton would not have been able to fetch.
Thank god, something promising on the philly sports horizon. I can’t articulate how excited I am to watch Halladay pitch in a Phillies uniform. Baseball can’t come soon enough.
Also, regarding your Gillies comment, I’ve read a few articles that compare him to Shane. I read he may be one of the fastest “home to first” players in the game. It’s nice to see some speed back in the minors. Dom Brown and Gillies could end up being a great defensive combo. I had hoped to see Taylor in the OF too but Halladay is one of the few players I’m more than willing to give him up for.
Interesting article from Tom Verducci
Phillies 6th most “efficient” team of last decade.
I’m doing a 180 on Blanton. I read so many times how he was expected to make 7 mil this year, that my feeble mind entrapped him as having made that last year. Even the fans need spring training. In reality, coming off 5.5 mil, despite Randy Wolf (longer service time) inking at 10 per with the Brewers, the Phils figure of 7 mil plus seems fairer than my thinking of a feeble raise at best. The bigger question would seem to be if the Phils do compromise, how anxious would they be to do something beyond a year or two. Joe has done a good job with the Phils, but didn’t seem to attract much interest when RAJ allegedly looked to deal him prior to the Halladay/Lee scenario. And his lack of post season work didn’t say much about Charlie’s confidence in him.
Eric Gagne. Hmmmmm. I’d like to think they have a reason other than desperation for spending the time on it. Like he’s throwing well.
Gagne said he would accept a non guaranteed minor league deal. So they have just about nothing except minimal coin to lose if they sign him and he sucks.
Phillies 6th most “efficient” team of last decade.>>
That’s pretty complimentary ranking up there with teams like the Twins and A’s that usually field good clubs on small payrolls.
We’re going to be harder pressed to continue that with the payroll jump. The 140 mil bandied about all winter for 2010 seems like a small jump since we’ve heard it so often, but here’s the way its gone in recent years….
2009: $113,004,046
2008: $ 98,269,880
2007: $ 89,428,213
2006: $ 88,273,333
2005: $ 95,522,000
2004: $ 93,219,167
2003: $ 70,780,000
2002: $ 57,954,999
2001: $ 41,663,833
2000: $ 46,900,000
I wouldn’t be totally shocked if Blanton got his $10.5 Mil, see here:
“All told, a reasonable expectation for Blanton in 2010 is a WAR at about 3.0. Multiplying that by our dollar value per WAR figure, $4 million, we estimate Joe to be worth about $12 million in free agent dollars. How do we interpret that figure? Dave Cameron explains:
In other words, if the Phillies went into 2010 without Blanton and wanted to recoup the 3 WAR lost, they should expect to pay about $12 million to free agents. That $10.25 million request submitted by Blanton looks a bit more reasonable now, doesn’t it?”
Interesting how Baez and Gagne have experience as closers while Mathieson is regarded as having closer stuff. Looks like the front office is stacking up Plan B, Plan C, and Plan D in case Lidge doesn’t revert to 2008 form.
KB -
you can’t really compare FA$ to Arbitration$. Obviously Shane is worth more than the $5.5 he’s asking for (or would get much more on the open market) but he’s in the 2nd year of arbitration, and thems the rules.
KB-
Where’s that $113 for 2009 coming from? The link you have there shows $128 and doesn’t include Lee or Pedro.
Dan-
considering this (from the post): “only 4 pitchers have ever asked for more than $10 million in arbitration: Tim Lincecum, Felix Hernandez, Francisco Rodriguez and Carlos Zambrano.”
It’s not reasonable. Arbitration and free agency are not comparable. And while I love “WAR” as a stat, the salaries that $4 million gets you are crazy… for instance…. Ben Zobrist was worth $38.6 million last SEASON, or $6.6 million more than A-Rod. Nyjer Morgan? $22 million. Jason Bartlett? $21 million. Their numbers don’t remotely jive with the actual market value of a player.
Joe Blanton is crazy to ask for that much. We should have just kept Lee and traded Blanton. And im not just saying that because hes asking for a lot of money but because it doesn’t make sense. I mean seriously, who cares about prospects when we have a core of players, right now in the majors that can potentially win another ring. If Lee wants a 6 year 120 million contract, than let him go to FA and let him sign with the yankees.
sdfhksfhksjdhfef ahh!!
Both Hamels and Lee has been known for being injury prone, and lets just say that one of them gets injured during the season. Obviously thats a big hit to our staff but on the bright side, we still have 2 out of the 3 pitchers. While now if Hamels gets injured, we only have Halladay and etc. Ruben will probably call someone up as a short term replacement. then later on Ruben would most likely trade Aumont or Jc Ramirez or who ever for a starter before the deadline.
If the phillies held on to Blanton just before spring training or right after everyone signed, im pretty sure some desperate club would have overpaid for Blanton.
its a common misconception that you can convert any prospect with similar build or similar tools into a veteran player that can play ball at the Major league level; Tyson Gilles my foot!, better pay Victorino before he pulls an Aaron Rowand on us.
Pete,
That 2009 figure was a copy and paste from Cot’s. Iaccess that from my favorite places. Its quite possible that I access an oudated page. Here’s the link in the unlikely event that the site is new to you.
http://mlbcontracts.blogspot.com/2005/01/philadelphia-phillies_18.html
I think I did overstate the comparison of free agency effecting arbitration dollars. You’re right about that.
Pretty interesting that Joel Piniero went to the American League.
jkay -
I can’t tell if you are joking or not, as Tyson Gillies (or Gose) vs. Victorino is the same type of swap as Victorino for Rowand, which saved us $20.5 million over 2 years (Rowand made $24 million in 08/09, Victorino made $3.5). Not only did we end up with the better player, but the money we saved enabled us to make the Blanton and Lee moves. We might see the same situation when Victorino becomes a FA.
No, there is no guarantee that Gillies or whoever will be a good player, but you will certainly have a good idea.
KB-
NO ONE wants to go to the Mets I guess! Bengie Molina took a crappy 1-year deal with the Giants instead of going there and Pinero went to the AL instead of going there.
Meanwhile, Roy Halladay took a $60 million discount to come here.
Life is good people.
According to Phillies.com…
The Phillies are talking with Blanton, Victorino and Ruiz about multi-year extensions.
This is interesting – especially on Blanton’s end, as he would be a FA after this season. Would he sign a 2 year, $16-18 million deal and forgo a year of FA? That would give us Halladay, Hamels, Happ and Blanton for 2011 as well.
It would be good to add another year on to Victorino as well, which would give Gillies, Gose and maybe even Jiwan James another year of development to end up replacing him.
I’m not sure why they wouldn’t go year-to-year with Ruiz. He was great the 2nd half of last season, but has yet to put together a full season. I guess because we don’t any replacements ready for him anymore?
Amaro seems to really hate arbitration and really want price certainty. This report coupled with Howard, Hamels and Madson’s deals last year show that.
It’s simply not true that nobody wants to go to the Mets. Here’s a list of players that would probably kill to don the blue and orange…
Eric Gagne
Jose Canseco
Denis “Oil Can” Boyd
For whatever reason, they are now lining up to watch Eric Gagne throw. Turns out the Dodgers, Blue Jays and Rockies will watch him throw. There’s something intruiging that started this. It just seems so out of nowhere, and he was so convincingly bad at the end, not just with the Red Sox.
Meanwhile, In St. Louis, the Post Dispatch ran a survey of media folk to get a handle on who the best team between the Cards and Phils are. Here’s the read.
http://www.stltoday.com/blogzone/round-two/round-two/2010/01/cardinals-or-phillies-who-is-the-nls-best/
Joe Blanton reuuped for 24 million for 3 years. Looks like we know who the front 4 of the rotation will be for a while.
People said Joe was the Phils most consistent pitcher last year. He was very much that after May or so. If he can get off to a quicker start than last year, and maintain a good pace, he should be one of the best number 3 starters in the league.
He loses 2 free agent years, and now, finally, its appropriate to compare his money to other free agents. If Randy Wolf is at 10 mil a year, and Pineiro is at 8, and if Carl Pavano got 7 mil for a year from the Twins, the Phils got a very fair price.
Shane and Chooch remain arb eligible.
Phillies lock up Blanton and Victorino for 3 years. it is good contract for him and team.