That is according to Stephen Oh, AccuScore Analyst and their prediction formula.
DETROIT PISTONS VS PHILADELPHIA 76ers
(Pistons 95.2% Favorites)Stephen Oh’s Take
Detroit is not vastly superior to Philadelphia in any one key area of the game (shooting percentage, rebounding, turnover margin, depth), but they are tangibly better in every key area of the game. In other words, they might out-rebound Philly by just 4, shoot only 2% better from the field, 5% better from the line, and commit 2 fewer turnovers. Each of these phases give Detroit a 2 point net advantage on the scoreboard and when you add all 4 of them together you have Detroit with an 8 point advantage on a neutral court (call that +12 at home, +4 on the road). When you factor for playoff experience and home court advantage Detroit is winning a resounding 95 percent of playoff series simulations.Jonathan Lee’s Take
Philadelphia probably has no business being in the playoffs, but they are young, athletic, and play hard at all times. That’s enough in the East these days. The Sixers shoot almost no three pointers yet have found a way to be effective with Andre Miller having found the fountain of youth at the point guard position. Detroit is not nearly as dominant on defense as they have been in the past, but the bench has improved significantly with the emergence of Jason Maxiell, Amir Johnson, Rodney Stuckey, Jarvis Hayes, and Arron Afflalo. Detroit’s starting five is just too good for Philly to hang with in a seven game series. Don’t be surprised if the Sixers steal two games however.
That percentage is the cumulative odds for the entire series not each game. The AccuScore prediction for tomorrow’s game has the 76ers as 21% underdogs.
I especially like Stephen Oh’s point that Detroit isn’t vastly superior to the Sixers in any of the major statistical categories. But when you combine all those small edges it adds up to a pretty sizable point differential. This in a way supports a frequent commenter on the blog, Joe’s assertion that the 76ers in many was are comparable to the Detroit PIstons.
What do you guys think about that analysis?
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At least you’re not Atlanta (99.5%).
Feel free to delete/move this comment if you choose Dannie, since it is not about this specific topic. It is a follow up from the novels on the other entry. That page has just gotten really long.
I want to address a couple things with Dave T.
First. I was comparing this team solely to the championship team for several reasons. The main reasons are that Rip had no 3 point shooting ability back then and they really weren’t that veteran of a team. I wouldn’t compare this team to the 04-05 team because they had so much experience, yada yada yada.
Second. Starting Thad and Iggy would hurt the range you say… I am not sure I agree. Willie Green’s range leaves much to be desired. I would rather have Iggy, Thad, Jason Smith, Carney, and even Lou out there shooting 3 point shots.
Lastly, how do you not prefer statistics based on per minute production? If you don’t take per minute into account, then players are rewarded for simply playing more minutes. That is how you fall into the trap of believing that Eddy Curry made an improvement a year or 2 ago. His minutes doubled, and so did the rest of his stats. He was the same player. He just played more. That led Isiah to sign him to a long term deal. I don’t think you can look just at per minute, but they are in no way worthless. They have as much value as looking at per game if not more.
Oh yeah and Rip led the team in scoring during their championship season and scored less points than Iggy only because he is a LESS efficient scorer than Iggy. You keep calling him efficient. Iggy is more efficient than Rip was. The numbers say so.
Comparing Thad’s Bball IQ to any of those Pistons guys is quite easy for me and I wouldn’t say it is laughable in any way shape or form. He is an extremely intelligent player. He is ahead of the curve when compared to every single Piston.
And do you have a link to the specific formula they use to determine these things… also do they accoutn in any way for whether or not a team is “hot.” I think not looking at the last 10 games is a mistake. Not looking at last 30 is a mistake, etc. I can’t really comment on the article until I know these things.
Does this guy make up the percentile after analyzing or is it determined by an exact formula?
Joe – I am sure Dave T will find your comment over here and it is still in regards to Detroit and Philly so it’s all good.
Here is a semi complicated explanation of what AccuScore is and what their computer simulation takes into account when evaluating outcomes of games. The examples have a football angle (I think this started out as a football tool and they expanded it to all sports, but forgot to update their explanation page) but I am sure you can see how it would apply to basketball.
The one thing they don’t say is whether or not they weight recent game statistics heavier than early season stats. I think it may come to the philosophy of the people creating the engine and it’s rules. I would assume they do account for recent play.
As far as the percentage AccuScore is a prediction engine so the primary output is likely the % chance each team has to win, not something the analyst makes up. As well as the predicted score (this is something sports bettors would use in making picks ATS). I think that would defeat the purpose of having a non-biased computer predict the outcome if the analyst makes up the %.
So basically they create virtual players and have them play each other one play at a time and do it for 10,000 games. Sounds interesting.
Wonder how they decide to assign the attributes…
WE TOOK GAME ONE BABY!!!!!!!!! YEEEEEAAAAH!
And it wasn’t a fluke, their defense was tremendous in the second half.
Where… Reggie Evans… happens.
Man, I fully expect a crazed post tomorrow. Don’t dissapoint.
the sixers stunned the pistons.. great day for sixers fans.. congratulations man..
Dannie, I usually go to Deep Sixer, but they changed the darn format, people gotta register, I don’t think people are gonna go for that. But I gotta talk my Sixer ball, and of the three non-Deep Sixer blogs, I think yours is the best one, I’m gonna set up camp here. But I gotta let you know why I think yours is the best, so you don’t go changing.
I like that you DON’T cover all the bases, and you leave lots of room for debate, although people here generally don’t take the opportunity to fill in the blanks. And you really come off as NOT being a know-it-all, you’re just like another passionate fan talking, and that was the best part of Deep Sixer, being able to talk to other fans, getting insights that you didn’t get, while being able to share yours. If I feel like you’ve started reaching for Bill Simmons-type of success, I’m gone…
I have lots of thoughts about last night’s game, here’s one: My favorite moment has to be when Iggy dished off to LouWill and he calmly sank that jumper. Later on, before they cut to commercial break, they showed LouWill’s reaction to that jumper, and he had this ferocious, pumped-up look on his face – that’s Playoff Fever, baby!