Comments on: 76ers Have a 4.8% Chance of Beating Detroit

By: sixerzguy

sixerzguy — Mon, 21 Apr 2008 02:25:43 +0000

Dannie, I usually go to Deep Sixer, but they changed the darn format, people gotta register, I don’t think people are gonna go for that. But I gotta talk my Sixer ball, and of the three non-Deep Sixer blogs, I think yours is the best one, I’m gonna set up camp here. But I gotta let you know why I think yours is the best, so you don’t go changing.

I like that you DON’T cover all the bases, and you leave lots of room for debate, although people here generally don’t take the opportunity to fill in the blanks. And you really come off as NOT being a know-it-all, you’re just like another passionate fan talking, and that was the best part of Deep Sixer, being able to talk to other fans, getting insights that you didn’t get, while being able to share yours. If I feel like you’ve started reaching for Bill Simmons-type of success, I’m gone…

I have lots of thoughts about last night’s game, here’s one: My favorite moment has to be when Iggy dished off to LouWill and he calmly sank that jumper. Later on, before they cut to commercial break, they showed LouWill’s reaction to that jumper, and he had this ferocious, pumped-up look on his face – that’s Playoff Fever, baby!

By: 76ers vs. Pistons Playoff Series: Philly Steals Game 1 — The Recliner GM Sports Blog

Mon, 21 Apr 2008 02:19:25 +0000

[...] ← 76ers Have a 4.8% Chance of Beating Detroit [...]

By: fouledout

fouledout — Mon, 21 Apr 2008 01:48:38 +0000

the sixers stunned the pistons.. great day for sixers fans.. congratulations man..

By: Bruce

Bruce — Mon, 21 Apr 2008 01:42:23 +0000

Man, I fully expect a crazed post tomorrow. Don’t dissapoint.

By: Joe

Joe — Mon, 21 Apr 2008 01:20:27 +0000

Where… Reggie Evans… happens.

By: Dannie

Dannie — Mon, 21 Apr 2008 00:50:00 +0000

And it wasn’t a fluke, their defense was tremendous in the second half.

By: Dave T

Dave T — Mon, 21 Apr 2008 00:48:27 +0000

WE TOOK GAME ONE BABY!!!!!!!!! YEEEEEAAAAH!

By: Joe

Joe — Sun, 20 Apr 2008 19:54:42 +0000

So basically they create virtual players and have them play each other one play at a time and do it for 10,000 games. Sounds interesting.

Wonder how they decide to assign the attributes…

By: Dannie

Dannie — Sun, 20 Apr 2008 18:32:01 +0000

Joe – I am sure Dave T will find your comment over here and it is still in regards to Detroit and Philly so it’s all good.

Here is a semi complicated explanation of what AccuScore is and what their computer simulation takes into account when evaluating outcomes of games. The examples have a football angle (I think this started out as a football tool and they expanded it to all sports, but forgot to update their explanation page) but I am sure you can see how it would apply to basketball.

The one thing they don’t say is whether or not they weight recent game statistics heavier than early season stats. I think it may come to the philosophy of the people creating the engine and it’s rules. I would assume they do account for recent play.

As far as the percentage AccuScore is a prediction engine so the primary output is likely the % chance each team has to win, not something the analyst makes up. As well as the predicted score (this is something sports bettors would use in making picks ATS). I think that would defeat the purpose of having a non-biased computer predict the outcome if the analyst makes up the %.

By: Joe

Joe — Sun, 20 Apr 2008 17:46:02 +0000

And do you have a link to the specific formula they use to determine these things… also do they accoutn in any way for whether or not a team is “hot.” I think not looking at the last 10 games is a mistake. Not looking at last 30 is a mistake, etc. I can’t really comment on the article until I know these things.

Does this guy make up the percentile after analyzing or is it determined by an exact formula?