I’m still not quite ready to go into full off-season mode, but this will at least provide a place to talk about the Phillies without having to stare at the post written about us losing.
Below you will find a breakdown of the Phillies payroll in 2011 vs. 2012. You can see what is coming off the books, what we are adding, and where there are still question marks.
So, by my calculations, the Phillies have about 18.5 million dollars to spend, if they want to stay in line with last year’s number. If you assume a slight increase (I would), that should put them up toward 22-23 million.
So if you keep Rollins and Madson at $10 mill each, that gives you no wiggle room to deal with other areas. They might be able to extend Hamels to a Cliff Lee type deal in that Year 1 is much lower than the others and offers us short-term flexibility. Could also see them dumping Kendrick (unlikely though) to free up some money there.
It will be interesting to see what they do. They have some wiggle room right now.
What would you like to see the Phillies do with that money and/or the roster in general?
Cliff or Roy H will never win a WS trade one of them and fix the pen.
I believe you should be posting on espn.com
Sometimes-spiffy Cliffy Lee: 21 and a half million dollars for 33 game starts in ’12. Works out to
$651,515.15 (plus travel expenses and incidentals) PER START! Holy Kiteman! As the great Russian philosopher Yakov Smirnoff once mused, “What a country!” We’re not talkin’ about Lefty Grove here, folks. Or even Rube Waddell.
The thing that ticks me off about the line-up is the 6 that make the other 2 look bad 3 games out of 4.
Shopping list: 1 starting ‘power bat’ (missed boat on Beltre), 1 starting ‘contact bat’, 1 closer to replace Madson, 1 lefty reliever (Bastardo not enough), 2 pieces to add hitting punch to wafer-thin bench, 1 thermal blanket to keep player-coach Jamie Moyer’s knees warm on chilly spring & fall nights, 9 tickets to ride on outta here for current manager and coaches.
Is Bruce bochy brilliant or did Cody Ross make him lokk so?
Is LaRussa brilliant or did Dave Freese make them look so?
We never seem to have one or have room for one in the lineup.
Managers mean squat. Seems every team that wins it needs some 2nd tier player to get come through like a 1st tier player. In fact LaRussa’s performance in the WS is proof that managers mean very little. He made enough dubious moves for a season.
Yes, managers are irrelevant … like Presidents, corporate CEOs, military generals, public school superintendents and natural fathers.
LaRussa has proven his value over a distinguished career. No expounding required.
Freeze and others in the know disagree with you, phillyfan:
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/10/31/tony-la-russa-retires-_n_1067164.html
rollins becomes a free agent
resign hamels to a flat contract (no high amount at the back end) and madsen
what does lee make the following yr??? Big jump from 10 mil to 21
He’ll go to $25 mi, where he will stay for 2014 and 2015 as well. 2016 it could be $27 million, or a huge $12.5 million buyout.
Blanton, Victorino and Hamels are the contracts that come off the books next year.
I think an important part of this is going to be letting DeFratus, Savery and Schwimer compete for the two non-closer bullpen spots. I would not put ANY MONEY into the non-closer spots.
I agree. After paying Baez near 3M and wasting change on guys like Romero and Lidge, all of whom performed horribly relative to the cost, it’s almost a no-brainer. These next 3 yrs should be the era of Austerity. Huge contracts of Lee, Howard, Doc etc. have got us on the tab for so much, that the rest of the roster is gonna have to be assembled with a Pat Gillick mentality. No more luxuries like Oswalt , as this year has shown us that starting pitching talent, while good, is optimized at a certain point and can only produce diminishing returns, when superfluous amounts are introduced.
If we could trade Blanton, I’d do it. Even Jose Contreras looks a little annoying being that he is how old?, coming off an injury. Need to get younger while preserving the anchors for the team and supplementing with just enough to get us back in the postseason. RAJ needs to start bargain hunting, cutting and negotiating more shrewdly. That payroll can only go down now.
Starting Five: Doc, Lee, Hamels, Worley, Blanton/Kendrick. End of story. I don’t want to see a new face in there.
It’s in the Cards: heart. Miles ’n miles ’n miles o’ heart. What a game.
a good deal of bad pitching from Rangers pen aided the cause greatly.
I guess they felt drinking champagne on a Thursday is unlucky.
keep the pitchers we have including Madson if at all possible. If not , find a closer with more than a change up/fastball mix.
Keep Worley he will keep getting better.
Do whatever you can to make sure Hamels Stays and Promote him to the # 2 spot. He deserves it. He wins during the season when we are hitting for him and more importantly he wins Playoff games!
Lee is great and all through the season my favorite pitcher, but he makes costly mistakes and Hamels gets the job done when needed.
I also don’t have a problem keeping Ibanez off the bench to hit or fill in as needed at a reduced rate. He can play 1st or outfield as needed and we could use his bat.
Trade Brown, keep Mayberry.
here is a question. Would it be possible to write up contracts with specific performance standards? For instance in the case of some one like Howard could you write this is your salary if you maintain a season batting average of .270 or more and this is your salary below that?
Would someone like Pulhols be willing to gamble signing a contract for maybe 3 million more than another team, but having to keep a high batting average? If he performs what do you have to lose?
<here is a question. Would it be possible to write up contracts with specific performance standards?>
err this is off the cuff, but I don’t think the MLB Union will let you do that.
I don’t know that it’s a source of the union or collective bargaining agreement (it may be), but there are real limitations on incentive clauses. The minute you start getting into reward for self serving statistics is when the game really has it’s integrity fall fast. The only thing that matters is winning games. You give a guy extra bucks for a higher batting average, and you kill that focus. Howard singles to lead off an inning, which would go toward the theoretic batting average clause, it’s a success even if it’s 9-2, B8. Tie game, B8, he bats with Chase on 2nd, and none out, and grounds to second to set up the winning run at 3rd with 1 out, its conceivably eons more productive than the aforementioned base hit, but does zero for the average.
who ever herard of Mott or that Brian dude from San Fran prior to their WS years? Don’t overspend on a closer. I could see bastardo handling it. Is he is a disaster just pick an average somebody up at the deadline.
Closer for 10 mil/year? Do not want.
RAJ will have some tough choices this year. We need another power hitter to complement Howard. AKA the reason Raul was bought in here to begin with. I feel we need another 3B, make Polly a super utility hitter and pinch hitter. I know 6.5 Mil is a lot for those roles but so be it. Once Polly contract is up we will need a new 3B anyways might as well go after someone know. I dont have a problem building up our bullpen with the pieces we have know. However, i would like to see one Vet in the mix. Not one of those mentor me types Vets, but someone that can still come in produce. Someone who can come in and say Oh XYZ is up i know he’ll go after an outside low pitch because i faced him 5 times before. Our high profile players, Howard, Utley, Hamels, Lee and Doc had put a stranglehold on what options we have. Blanton has been another salary eater and waste of money and space. Unfortunately i dont think we can get much for him because of his injury riddled season.
Tell you what the Phils need to win a WS; an over-achieving bullpen, a ton more grit, a mega-superstar who is on his way out of the city, some pixie dust and a lucky squirrel in our ballpark.
Haha St. Louis, I kid you. Congratulations on a well deserved win and a dramatic performance. Samuel L. Jackson would be proud.
Lets face it. Winning it all is a crap-shoot. Just gotta try to get to the dance and then pretty much hope.
+1
It is a crap shot phillyfan but certain things you can do to improve your chances at this crap shot.
The ironic thing is that it seems like the best way to ensure a WS is to realize you can’t plan for one. You have to allow for chance. Don’t have the whole lineup settled. Our team is a bit too structered right now. Too clean. Where are positions that an Dave Freese can emerge during the course of a year? Maybe 3rd base? Let’s let LF and 3rb base be a tossup and not panic if someone like Mayberry doesn’t grab it out of spring training. DO NOT resign Raul. Let that be a position that we platoon two vets or another vet and Dominic. And just see what happens.
I’m not going to Cot’s to do a comparison, but looking at these salaries, the thing that stands out is that carlos Ruiz is low paid, if not ridiculously so compared to his teammates. More power to Joe Mauer for nailing the contract he did. I doubt Chooch’s representation allowed him to be low balled in comparison to other catchers, but his earnings just get crushed by a number of teammates.
Ken yes it has been discussed that Ruiz is under payed some. However before he was a good catcher with a low batting average wasnt till last 2 years that he has come into his own. For example the year we won it he was just hitting .219. Although in the recent past he has become clutch for us, except for this year he regressed in that department.
I think it’s interesting that the brewers have not asked there shortstop to come back. I wonder if the phils would have interest in him, or if that would drive down some of the demand at the position.
No serious contender would choose to go to war with Yuni Betancourt as their everyday shortstop. He’s a very average player. He’s an example of why Rollins has seller’s advantage. He and Jose are the only non imposters in the field. He’d be a half decent improvement over Valdez, but a drastic dropoff compared to Jimmy in one of Jimmy’s lesser thought of years. Absolute pass.
I agree Ken, i think the plan is if they cant sign Rollins to offer Betancourt a 1-2 yr deal. That is the time they can evaluate Galvis. He has developed some power as well in the past 2 years. One good thing with him is he doesnt strike out much. Something the Phils can use in their lineup. However, i do agree he isnt the player Rollins is and ideally we should resign Rollins.
CL – I’d see a 2yr/6mm on incentive-laden for a Broxton, Capps, Pick-your-Francisco, Nathan type of closer. Or closer by committee with the young guns & Contreras.
SS – Jimmy 3yr/10mm is the max I’d go on him (which is still too much, he’s a 7-8mm player). Other SS options are stop-gaps w/high OBP like Carroll or power in Alex Gonzalez 1-3yrs/1-4mm. We have a defensive SS already in Valdez & Glavis, so either a platoon/stop-gap until A & AA talent pan out.
Super-Utility – Cheap route = Jerry Harriston or Willie Harris to replace the dreadful Martinez. Expensive route = Cuddyer – fills hole in LF, 1B, injury/spell for 2B, 3B, RF. He’ll likely command 7-10mm though and 3 to 4 years.
LF – Expensive = Cuddyer. Interesting options are Grady Sizemore (LF isn’t as taxing as CF – see Pat the Bat), Ryan Ludwick (almost forgotten in SD), A platoon situation with Reed Johnson, or even Juan Pierre. Sizemore is the classic low risk high reward. Ludwick provides power, Johnson OBP & Pierre still has speed. Mayberry is another option at mid-season or Dom Brown.
1B – A different route would be nice, say Average & OBP? Cuddyer or a non-tendered James Loney? Sluggers like Carlos Pena, Lee, even Wily Mo Pena are available & cheap. Jim Thome can still give you a couple days at 1B a week. AAA options will be looked at during ST most likely.
Moves I’d make though – Trade Blanton / Non-tender Kendrick. Saves 4mm. Invite some veteran arms for incentive deals in ST to replace either. Injuries happen, but cheap starters like Chris Young, Bedard, Harden, Maholm, Franscis, etc.. grow on trees.
I’d say farewell to Ibanez (unless a league min deal reached) Lidge, Rollins, Madsen, Kendrick/Blanton (pref blanton), Gload, Ben Fran, and Martinez.
I wouldn’t have a make-shift bench though.
LH Power Bat & RH Power Bat
4th OF Hitting for Average
Super Utility that is not anemic on offense
Speed
Zak for the money they pay Kendrick assuming he has a year like this year i would have to keep him. His service as a emergency starter or backup starter outweighs the money they pay him. Also he can come in relief if a starter gets knocked out to early. This weak offense needs the best bat not a stopgap. Ludwick is a Pirate not in San Diego he has been pretty bad with the bat. No one wants Blanton most we get for him is a B level prospect. That is unless we are just looking to dump his salary dump. If you dump Kendrick and Blanton who would be our fifth starter and who would be the sixth starter. You have to keep at least one of those guys i think. In that case i like your idea of finding another cheap arm and dumping Blanton, with the idea that we keep Kendrick. Lidge, Ibanez, and Martinez i dont mind leaving. Though i probably would keep Martinez in AAA as a insurance policy as most likely Pete Orr will be gone as well. I will give Cody Overbeck the start at 1st Base till Howard comes back and as his sub. However i do agree we probably need a Vet that can play 1B and some outfield and pinch hit.
I don’t get these Bodog ’12 World Series odds that apprently were released today. Never mind that it seems improbable that enough players would wager on such a thing right now with free agents still available up the yin yang and all that good stuff. Lack of players would seem to kill having a point of attracting equal players to balance things out. The Phils are 4-1 faves, the Yanks are second at ?-?, Red Sox 8-1, the Rangers are 12-1, the Cards 14-1. Maybe it’s the personal view of a Vegas transplant who growed up somewhere around 25th and Tasker.
The Rangers close out the year relatively young, and seemingly with money to spend. That core group reminds of the late 70s Phillies that had enough youth to finally grab the title a few years after the run started. The ’12 Phillies, budgeted to levels reachable from the 10 toes extended stance, if not the rafters hardly seem headed north. Not to say this club can’t win it, by slippage of minimal amounts, but favorites? That is some strange oddsmaking. And of course, an even stranger topic.
OMG, so much dead money in 2012. Utley is worth about $2-3 mill, Planco is useless, Blanton another year of stealing money, that’s almost $30 million of dead money, and we will probably give Jimmy way too much money and years as well. Nearly impossible to really improve, but Ruben is really good, so I have hope.
Keep Madson and let Jimmy go is my vote. We need a true leadoff hitter, and can’t afford what he will get on open market. Truth is, we have to change our team and hitting approach, letting Jimmy go is the only way to do it.
Just wanted to thank Placido Polanco for batting .380 last April, and securing the 3rd Gold Glove of his career. That bottom lines to what they call useless. Don’t worry about rehabbing from surgery, Plac. Never mind that you might still have a productive season left.
Also wanna criticize this waste of life known as Chase Utley. Guy’s worth 2-3 mil a year (never mind that if he were a free agent, about 15 clubs would be lined up to pay him 8-10 mil for as long as 3 years), and if paid that worth, would make a quarter of what Kyle Lohse will make next year. But Chase, as they say is dead money.
Then there’s Homeboy Joe. Don’t worry about pitching through pain and at least trying Joe. Don’t worry about having not held a gun to anyone’s head when contract time came up. You gonna be accused of stealing money anyway, anyhow. Don’t worry about having added to the long and deep collection of world championship titles this franchise has by hitting a WS homer, and at least being unappreciated respectfully.
Let’s just trade ‘em all. Criticize ‘em all.
It looks so easy when you read the papers instead of getting quoted in ‘em.
Good points, Ken. At the end of the season, no one ever seems to remember that a lot of our guys were playing hurt. I didn’t even realize how serious Hamels and Pence were hurt until I heard they were scheduled for surgery.
I really hope all of them, especially Polanco and Utley, take the time to heal properly and come back to have great seasons in 2012.
I’m as disappointed as anyone else that they didn’t take it all but am looking forward to another great season in contention.
I don’t know that great seasons should be expected, but more than dead money and stealing money seems deserved. Chase I think likely has some bark left (somebody wrote if he hit .275,20 and 80 “we” would all take it, and I responded to please discount me from the we…I still “expect” more from him) but I don’t even see where the other 2 guys warrant any disrespect, even if their would be comebacks are short of marked improvement.
Roly-poly Polly gets Gold Glove? Standards have dropped. Nice fielder but he does it on a postage stamp relative to history’s greats. A .380 April? It’s called a start. Earned plaudit: following boisterous April, played crappy while feeling like crap. At least he pocketed 5 and a half mil for his troubles. Longball from your 3rd baseman is prudential; Polanco, by nature, doesn’t bring that. Terry Pendleton Light.
Chase, master of the silent treatment, especially during last year’s irregular 454 PAs. On decline, 33 next month, is comfortably positioned on a value continuum somewhere between ‘waste of life’ and “premier working class hero.” Pale return on 15+ million in 2011. Media licks his spikes.
Joe Blanton: decreased innings, increased ERA & WHIP in 3 successive seasons as a Phil. Career 4.32 chucker. Cracked the safe for 10 and a half mil in 2011. World Series homer still good for ’100 black & white milkshakes’ at his favorite off-season emporium, with Monty-issued coupon. What a bargain, that Joe!
Yeaaa, Phillies!!!
The problem, if you chose to see it that way. is we have a bunch of guys who we CAN’T trade even if we wanted to. Nobody would take Polanco, Utley, Blanton and yes Howard (even if healthy) without us eating their contracts. They are untradable. Assuming they aren’t retiring, we are “stuck” with them.
So we are left with the incredible reach of having to read articles about how these 30-somethings are going to have to remake their entire swings. Now Howard needs to hit more ground balls down the 3rd base line and Utley needs to hit more groundballs to left field instead of trying to hit the ball out to left. Oh, and Rollins need to bunt more and hit fewer pop-ups to second base. Oh, and, now next year this stuff really needs to happen….
Which all seems a bit of an overreaction to coming up 2 runs short in one game to the eventual world champs. One game – it possible we win the title if they get through Cards. They aren’t going to redo anything. They need a few more timely hits. Not try and turn Howard into Rod Carew.
Add bench guys and some platoon players and give it another go. Not like we have a choice. Sports is funny, overnight you can have a bunch of has-beens that nobody wants, even when they won 102. Good, perhaps they can use that as motivation next year. What this team seems to have struggled with since 2008 is motivation. The core has their rings and I don’t see the same desire last few years. Won’t help the sabremetrics guys anymore than it could predict the impact Craig and Freeze would have on the Cards. But I think it is a factor.
Yes, 2011 failed to achieve its goals. But the time for overreaction should now be past. Basically the same team coming back that won 102.
“One of big 3 arms will sustain an arm injury in 2012. Worley, back to earth. Baseball is like that. Madson, gone. 102, bygone – but that may be a blessing in disguise.” - Madame Marie (Asbury Park, NJ)
“One of big 3 arms will sustain an arm injury in 2012. ”
Great – then we truly can be the Cards and win the WS. They lost their ace in spring training. Kyle Lohse and Edwin Jackson were sufficient. Maybe we will get “lucky” and Halladay or Lee will go down.
The subject of Jimmy Rollins next contract, whoever writes it seems more about the years than the money in terms of fan opinion and how long it should be. Particularly with a double play partner in the same age bracket, concern about what’s left in the tank makes that even more of a focus. Course if the Phils had as unquestionable depth in the minors, it would be easier to develop a feeling combined with that, but without it, there’s probably a leaning, or hope to the long side.
Jimmy Shortstop might have great genes, but even if he proves right that he can play effectively and regularly into an age 38, or 39 season, he’d be defying odds. That’s awfully well documented all over the internet from this common topic of the last several months. Derek Jeter had a very good H2 at age 37, but the slippage of the likes of Renteria-Uribe and Cabrera is more the norm. Shorter stretches, like Raffy Furcal had for the Cardinals are more likely, and more common (I’m guessing, but its very feasible), but even playing well to age 32 (consider that an implication that Jimmy played well, if not real well this year) isn’t close to guaranteed.
The 2 players I remember most who slipped fast from when I was a kid are still separated by degree of slippage in good amount. Johnny Callsion was a shell of himself by age 32, and the king of the fast track down was Tom Tresh, who dropped down the hill starting at age 30. Times were different then..you couldn’t afford to train in the off season, and booze and tobacco were big parts of the lifestyle. Still, the ages at which my remembered fallen was pretty early. Seems like Henry Aaron was still cranking out a steady diet of 35 plus homers well into beyond his mid 30s, and Say Hey Willie didn’t even enter the embarrassing himself debate until age 42 with the Mets.
Tresh was actually headed down amazingly early. There was more discussion of the Yanks aging back then than the last 2-3 years when they kept winning pennant after pennant, 60-64 straight through. But the discussions were more centered around the star level players like Whitey, Yogi, and the Mick. Tresh wasn’t at their level, but played far better in his 20s than even shortly after.
The times are different, for sure. But where you have need, a club might be inclined to go longer. All you can hope for is that the contract has some flexibility that avoids being a noose. Barring a Tresh like dip, even delayed, this won’t be Jimmy’s last contract. But it will be his last “big” one. I just hope it’s flexible enough that it can be moved if need be. I hardly look forward to that, but that’s a very plausible possibility.
Offer Madson 4 years and 24 mill and Jimmy 3 years and 21 mill. Take it or leave it. There will be a Furcal-ish shortstop out there and a bevy of closers
In fact, Furcal is presently available.
Let’s demythologize the “age” factor. Here are your world champ core contributors and their present age. I don’t think any of them were recommended to change their batting stance and apparently were not considered too old to win it all:
Carpenter – 36
Berkman – 35
Furcal – 34
Punto – 34
Lohse – 33
Pujols – 31
Holliday – 31
Molina – 29
Motte – 29
Freese – 28
Craig – 27
I won’t even go into the bunch of grandfathers they had in the bullpen (Dotel, Rhodes, etc.). IT is amazing that it seems like ever since the Phils core turned 29ish I have been reading how they are getting old. Yet, there is no reason elite performance can’t extend into the 35 area. By Phils standards, Card were an older team, yet I don’t think I read a single article on Philly.com about that fact.
Data supports the Phillies growing need for a gerontologist.
Offensive peaks (to date):
Ibanez ’06 age 34
Polanco ’07 age 31
Rollins ’07 age 28
Utley ’09 age 30
Howard ’09 age 29
Diminishing returns for each since.
Next yr is ’12.
Rearview mirror gauge reading:
Ibanez 5 yrs
Polanco 4 yrs
Rollins 4 yrs
Utley 3 yrs
Howard 3 yrs
Each will likely be as successful as Spanish explorer Juan Ponce de Leon in finding the Fountain of Youth. Though 1 or 2 may be mildly resurgent in ’12 if they eat their prunes and take regular walks.
I grow old … I grow old …
I shall wear the bottoms of my trousers rolled.
~ T.S. Eliot; “The Love Song of J. Alfred Prufrock”
Pete, can you sticky this post to keep it on the home page. This chart is the #1 thing I go to whenever someone is talking hot-stove Philly baseball. Oh plus please update it ASAP.
It looks like Phillies will actually pay LESS for a closer this year than they did last year. As J-Pap at 12.5 is less than Lidge+Madsen was $16
Thanks, Mike