The result of this series isn’t really all that important. As the Pirates series win over the Red Sox this past weekend shows, gaining much (or any) knowledge from a 3-game sample is a pointless exercise.
However, the Red Sox and Phillies were big-time favorites (except for those “daring” ESPN folks picking the Braves) and it’s a good time to examine how these teams might match-up come October.
First, previous year’s record, as a constant reminder to stop freaking out about anything.
2011: 49-30
2010: 42-37
2009: 42-37
2008: 43-36
2007: 41-38
Red Sox vs. Phillies
Let’s take a look at our line-ups and rotations, as if the playoffs started today (and assuming folks like Oswalt and Carl Crawford were healthy)
- The two teams are winning games very differently. The Phillies, as we know, are relying almost solely on our starting pitching, while the Red Sox have the league’s most dominant offense, 2 very good starters, 1 good starters and then a lot of question marks at the bottom of the rotation and in the bullpen.
- At first blush, I would like our chances in a World Series against these guys if Oswalt is healthy. If we could win one of the Halladay/Beckett, Lee/Lester match-ups, we’d have pretty favorable match-ups in Game’s 3/4 with Hamels/Buchholz and Oswalt/Whoever. Obviously our offense would have to step up, but it’s clear that we can in shorter spurts, and also I’m still expecting some improvement as we move deeper into the summer.
- Interesting that the Red Sox line-up as a whole is pretty much twice as good as our line-up and our rotation as a whole is pretty much twice as good as theirs.
- The Red Sox bullpen might be their Achilles heel right now. Papelbon isn’t what he used to be, and other than Bard, there are no dominant arms out there. I imagine they will be aggressive in trying to get some arms at the trade deadline.
- I didn’t put defensive metrics up here, but the fancy ones have the Sox as a better defensive team than us this year.
- Look at all those names… would this be the highest rated World Series ever? It would certainly be close.
Let me know in the comment who you guys and gals think would win the World Series if these two teams matched up…
3 Questions for the series…
- Can Cliff Lee continue his scoreless innings streak against a line-up full of guys with great numbers against him?
- Can anyone reign in this Red Sox offense (averaging 6.6 runs per game in their last 16, with 6 games of 10+)?
- Still waiting for some bats to get hot…eh?
Series expectations…
I see the Red Sox taking 2 of 3 here. When they have come into Philly with a winning record, we have just been dominated. Now, we do get some help with David Ortiz and Adrian Gonzalez not being able to be on the field at the same time, but still, the Red Sox offense is on some sort of tear right now, and we have been doing the opposite for a bit.
I’ve heard talks of them wanting to play Gonzalez in the OF this series so they can play Ortiz, Youkilis and him in each game. Also I wouldn’t put too much into our offensive stats yet, because Brown is bound to get better (low BABIP), Utley hasn’t played enouh to accumulate a lot of WAR (just 27 games and already has 1 WAR, and 1.3 on Fangraphs), and Howard has been a career second half player (a .148 career difference in OPS during).
Yeah, I expect our offense to get better. Agree on that.
But — I expect Carl Crawford to wake up one of these days too. (and for Papi to either regress or get suspended 50 games…)
He’s close to matching last year’s WAR, in only half the games
He’s had a few great games, but otherwise has sucked. Not as bad as Lackey, but close.
anyway, he’s on the DL and we won’t see him in this series
Sox have been a bit bi-polar this year losing series to teams like Seattle, Baltimore, San Diego and Pittsburgh, but destroying the Yankees. Gonzo has carried this team, along with their hitting depth, from opening day. But Youk, Ortiz, Lowrie, Ellsbury, Saltalamacchia, and lately, Pedroia have helped. Beckett, Buchholz and Lester have, as expected, been their best starters with Wakefield coming through more than expected. Bard and Papelbon have been pretty ok, and Albers and Aceves have had some good games. Lowrie, Crawford and Buchholz are on the DL now. Scutaro is back at SS, but no one has replaced Buchholz. They have no RF, but Reddick, a perennial prospect, has done well filling in for Crawford.
Hard to predict this series with so many key guys out for the Red Sox. They haven’t been playing well at all this last week; not much timely hitting against the Pirates and Padres, and Lackey will be pitching. So, based on those problems, and the possible absence of Ortiz in the lineup ( Francona is afraid Gonzo could get hurt playing LF), the Phillies should win the series.
I still find it baffling that Terry Francona is considered the transcendent manager of the 2000s…dude was horrible when he was here.
how do you really determine a coaches value though?
The Phillies were pretty awful back then, but Francona had a few decent seasons. I kind of vaguely recall that he was in the running for Mgr. of the Year one season. But, he was green and still learning; the front office was super cheap….blah blah.
Lots of guys become pretty decent managers over time. Torre wasn’t very good when he started back in the late 70′s, but good players and experience can make things change.
I think the Sox will win 2 of 3 and perhaps sweep. I just don’t see getting over that magical 3 runs pre game that we need to beat the best teams. And while Boston has struggled against some lesser teams, they tend to get up for the better teams.
I think it is is silly to view the Phils as a championship favorite with this offense. While the record is good, the doubting is a very justified. There are alot of media and fans being accused of being too worried about the offense (just look at the record!), but most of us know that is fools gold, including the manager. You can see in his demeanor and quotes that he know this team can’t win it all with this offense. We heard it last year and he was right.
He won a world title with:
Hamels,
Myers
Blanton
Moyer
I REPEAT:
Hamels
Myers
Blanton
Moyer
+ a dynamic offense.
The following year, the Yankees won with just a OK staff and a great offense.
With just good starting pitching you run too fine a line to win it all.
As an aside, Lester, 70-29 with a career 3.56. That is an incredible record with a so-so ERA.
The team who won last year had slightly better offensive number than ours are right now, but not significantly better.
Trips through time, and certainly recently, recently show massive flaw in this evaluation. Breaking down the Phils world title trying to credit the offense over the starting pitching and completely failing to mention the bullpen, headlined by Lidge and Madson says it all.
Not only is that history absent from this, but the manager’s demeanor and comments are no different than they were 3-4 years ago, when the comments were identical, just reversed with such statements as “don’t get me what I already have” directed at pitching improvements.
One can only conclude that the Manager is a relatively bright guy because he realizes you need balance, and totality to decent extents compete. This, for whatever reason, remains an impossible concepot for some people to grasp. Not to mention the time honored thinking that if you are to only have 1 of 2 things, pitching or hitting…well, never mind. Why waste time a vivious parlay of stubborn and naive.
phillyfan, your argument is refuted tonight.
not really. I am not saying we would get swept in any series we play. SImilar to the Giants or Yankees, our pitching will be good enough to win a few at least.
Nice win tonight. Lets see the offense continue to produce 4+ runs on average for 10-15 games and maybe we are on to something.
Yeah, if we start scoring runs like that, we might wind up with the best record in baseball or something. Oh, wait…
I have little predictive spirit about me on this thing. I think the Phils have a shot at winning 2 of 3, though, which I think most Phillie followers would consider a mild surprise. . I see no Wakefield, and think that’s a good start toward that. Their season has been a lot like ours, a list of when is this, that and the other thing gonna happen. Take away a 8 of 9 and 6 of 8 mark against the Yanks and Angels, and the BoSox are around .500. No Carl Crawford is huge. I do anticipate a little pullback from Cliff tonight. That’s more precaution than anything else. It’s not because of this singular stat, but Adrian is 7-10 off him, 3 doubles, and he’s also 8-22 off Cole. Josh has been great in stranding runners, its like 3 hits in 27 at bats with RISP and 2 outs, some clutch type effort, but that also means he’s put those runners on, too. So I’d be watchful of more runs possibly being scored tonight than one might think.
Regarding a possible October matchup, this series bears little as a factor toward that, of course. But these powerful Red Sox being backed off the plate a few times to leave something in their minds wouldn’t disappoint me. They look so comfortable at times.
Hmm, Madson to the 15 day DL retroactive to 6/19. They’re calling it a hand contusion. Carpenter up to take his place. On the bright side, Carpenter posted some pretty darn good number in Lehigh this year. I wont get into the other side of it…
A real good baseball trivia question comes to mind this afternoon with the announcement that Mark Howe has made the Hockey hall of Fame, and joins one of it’s ultimate members, dad Gordie in the membership list.
Every year, as you get older, the baseball draft list presents familiar last names off prior family members having played.
Some great father/son combos have decorated the game in performance. Bobby and barry Bonds, the Boones, Cecil and Prince Fielder.
Yet, for all the stories of players and Dad on father’s Day, there is only 1 father son combination in the Hall. And it’s not even players.
Lee and Larry MacPhail, executives from long ago are the only ones. And you thought George Bush Sr. calling George Bush Jr. the night the latter was elected wasn’t such a special occurrence.
Way to be rookie.
McCarthy with the jinx on lee there. No sooner does he mention that the only baseruner was the walked youkilis than scutaro laces one into left .
Bobby Jenks sighting
3 true aces, not just in name, have arrived.
Cliff Lee has an ERA of 0.21 in June. The lowest June ERA posted since World War II.
And you know what the best part of that is? I’m tellin ya, I believe I’m inside this guy’s mind. This guyis right up there with as competitive as has ever come down the pike. He might even say it out loud in an interview. He’s not only very quickly looking to his Sunday start in Toronto, but thinking why can’t I do it again in July? Hamels wants to be the best pitcher in baseball, Halladay’s reported work habits offer perfect evidence of what a competitor he is, and this other guy backs down from nothing. The numbers, including 5 wins in the month, which the Florida Marlins can only tie now, are long listed, and massively impressive. But they ain’t nothing compared to the spirit behind it.
Speaking of wars, any fan’s combat regarding individual season totals should start with respect of the 1961 delineating stoppage line of 154 game opportunities. In a nifty sport of numbers, the institution of a 162 game schedule changed opportunity, can skew retroactive comparisons: 8 games accruals are 8 games accruals.
Jim Cramer on Cliff: Back up the truck. Buy, buy, buy!
http://blogs.villagevoice.com/runninscared/2011/06/roger_maris_and.php
Good pass; wasn’t aware of book – thanks. What escapes Barra is that fans of that place and time had an “official record book” in their agile heads, apart from asterisks (or not), MLB central office and assorted doctrine. Not too hard to ”compute” PA and HR totals. Babe took 5 more ABs to get 60 but his hair didn’t fall out in splotches. Love both stories. From this sentimental judge’s stand, I rule it a tie, with a wink.
Lee’s definitly locked in mentally, but being able to throw the change & the curve for consistent strikes has been huge for him. Maybe this weekend when i have the time i’ll work up some number on it, but from where i sit it looks like Halladay, Lee, and Hamels have been teaching pitches to each other.
From the good news/bad news department comes word that Davey Johnson has selected his new bench coach. I wasnt sure of their relationship, but I know Davey and Larry Bowa were teammates here, and I think Davey was the Skip when Bo played briefly for the Mets around 1984. I assume Bo would kill to be back, but with no idea of Bo and Davey’s relationship, it was just hope.
The guy that gets the gig is one tough hombre. Baseball lifer, and ex Phil, Pat Corrales. Pat was from the Gene Mauch era and completely sucked as a hitter for almost all his career. Seems he had 1 good season, or stretch, but he was a guy who left it all on the field. As I recall, his wife passed while he was still playing, and he pressed on, which certainly increased positive feelings for the guy. Always got the idea the Pope’s regime held him in high esteem. I can’t even remember if he ever returned to the Phils fold after playing, he was with the Braves for a long time. Kinda like Bobby Wine has been there forever.
So, maybe Bo lands elsewhere, but that just looks iffy. Getting shut out of jobs this winter makes you wonder if his time has passed.
’65 catchers spring training sprint: Pat by a nose over Clay, Gus bringing up the rear.
Bowa, time passed? Say it isn’t sowa!
When’s the last time somebody really took the Phillies to the woodshed in a series? Can’t recall. Is it even possible now?
well, a definition of woodshed might prompt more factual answers, but resourcing my memoires, the Milwaukee club came into the Bank and did a nice job of impressing me earlier this year, taking 2 of 3, including a daytimer of 9-0, whichI believe was against Doc, although that was the pre optioned David herndon’s doing as I recall. I know I had some not fears, maybe trepedations is a better word going in, but the Crew was lookin pretty good. And even better now. Probably have 2 of the top 3 MVP candidates (Prince, Braun, Kemp) on 1 club, and Grienke’s more likely to match his good with lucky so far year as summer goes on, so I’d say that’s 1 club that in the right time and right place might perform a demolition of sorts.
Course the freaking Stros came in here again last year, and took 4, but that wasn’t woodshed type stuff.
Nice little ballclub we have here.
Nice little ballclub, giant understatement. Even the laggards have achieved in a few key moments. Not sold on the ultimate; small margin of error.
My “woodshed” = 3 or 4 gm sweep, a couple blowouts … oops, there I go again … ”blowouts” = 4 runs or more differential.
Gotta like Brewers offensive talent. In long run, don’t think pitching holds up.
Hottest teams in baseball: Tropicana Rays, 8-2 in L10; Yanks, Angels, Braves, Giants next at 7-3.
John Lacking gets the call for Tito tonight. He of the 85 mil contract. I can’t wait to see what happens if the Hamels negotiating team throws him into the conversation with his 85 mil deal. Actually thought he was a good sign (always give Theo the bennie of the doubt). Not sure what it is, but Globe beat guy Pete Abraham mentoned some personal issue he’s going through this year, but it happens. Kinda figure he’s like AJ Burnett, good pitcher, lousy year, but we’re talking season ERA over 7 WHIP shows getting whipped.
Vanimalwise, I like this kid. Bit of perfectionist, or self demand to his presentation. probably too stupid (synonym for young) to know he’s facing a brutal lineup. Give him half a chance to succeed at least early.
Might get a helping hand from BoSox lining up Adrian in right, Papi at first. Could mean nothing though.
Probably a 14-13 Phillies win. Give the predictor points for originality, at least. That’s not even to seriously suggest a high scoring game, but playing the under in this one, whatever the digits are sure seems for dog players.
pretty sure I read on Fangraphs that his wife has cancer
Yeah-she was diagnosed with breast cancer, but Lackey has been an awful signing by Theo-maybe his worst. He had one excellent year, in 2007 for the Angels, and he’s gone downhill ever since then. Along with others, I was shocked that Epstein coughed up that ridiculous deal for him.
Upon question, Darren Daulton said on radio last night he’d take Adrian over RyHo for his team. My question is, why was that a question?
because of the question mark.
And because Darren sees things differently than most of us.
No question about it.
Toughest guy on many a squad. Came back from bad injury. Respect him a lot. Favorite ’93-er. DD helped lead Marlins to a WC. I think he’s got baseball points to heed. Wished him good luck in a Wawa once before a playoff game … “thanks, man” seemed logical to me.
Points all well taken, just having a little fun with his staunch 2012 thing. All in fun.
I’m assuming that your comment about Darren DOESN’T mean that would take Ry-Ho over A-Gone, or does it?
I love Ryan Howard, but A-Gone is the superior player by a LOOOOOOOONG shot.
That was to KB
yeah, reading that, I can see where it came out wrong. Adrian all the way. I was just poking fun at Darren, but that’s a no brainer, which I could fatually support by pointing out that even darren thinks that way, but maybe I should quit.
I wouldn’t say LOOONG shot. Put Ryan in Boston in that lineup and he would probably be batting near 300 with 25 homers and 90 RBI right now. You have to realize he has nobody batting ahead of him or behind him. I would take AG, but not by much. It isn’t a coincidence that AG’s production has skyrocketed when you put him in the Boston Lineup. And it is like Ryho has been placed in the Padres lineup.
An Ryan definitely would not have let that pickoff throw to first get by him last night. Ryan made alot of good plays over there last night. Defence is really underrated.
Regarding the shift – is there any good reason that the shift isn’t employed on about 80% of players. With the exception of slap hitters like Polanco, Reyes, Ichiro, etc. almost all hitters have a prefered direction to hit. But why not do it to rollins or Victorino and Ruiz, AG, Fielder, Beltran, Pujols, etc. All these guys want to, and mostly do, pull the ball or hit it up the middle. I am waiting for a LaRussa to start doing it to most batters. Amke then change their style to beat you.
so Chase, Shane and Polanco are nobody ? Yeah right
By the way, not to come across as a pretend sabremetroologist, but….
my largely common sense about this game, coupled with dabbling in even some higher advanced stats wandered through a very interesting stat earlier.
The Phils are 27th in the sport in BABIP. In English, that’s batting average on balls in play. To me, that reflects bad luck. To an extent at least. And in this case, the effects of this oughta be a law against it Howard shift.
That sorta thing usually averages out longer term.
So to me, that’s another aspect of hope that this offense produce/manufactures in an uptrending way.
I don’t remember the exact average, but 27th in a business that has Astros and Nats running around says enough to me.
Dom Brown has been particularly “unlucky” with a BABIP of .213. Should see him improving his numbers a bit on luck alone.
He’s as lucky as keeping Laynce Nix away from him. Still pisses me off that he caught that ball.
Carlos Carrasco goes to 8-4 (4-1 in last 5 starts), 3.54, beating D-Backs 6-2; 7 I, 4 H, 7 K, 0 BB.
it’d be weird if he turns out the prize catch ahead of Drabek in all that unloading of the system. I don’t remember when it was, sometime last year I guess he was getting killed. Good for him for turning it around.
Agree. Carlos got clobbered 1st yr w/CLE; picked it up last season. Gio Gonzalez may be the best of the discards, improving in each of his 4 seasons with A’s - only 25.
JA Happ had a much better 1st season ERA-wise. Just sayin’
leave it to lackey to earn the powerful BoSox to score their first run in 16 innings. Man.
Barring a quick 6th, off the 72 pitches he’s at, you’d assume this is it for Vance. What a crapshoot on who Charlie would bring in for the 7th. With a tie or lead, I’d almost guess baez. I just don’t know that he’d have the confidence to bring Mathieson in. Carpenter might be more likely than Mathieson, but I kinda think he’ll go Baez.
82, not 72, so this should be it.
Some of these low hit games are even worse when you look at an inning like that. Utley earns the walk, then steals 2nd, 1 out, and then RyHo Ks, swinging outside the zone, and Sgane can’t convert 3-1. That’s baseball.
Red Sox run driven in by Lackey was their 1st earned run scored since last Saturday night as per Jayson Stark tweet
Utley’s 100th stolen base leaves him 20 behind Dave Cash, 23 behind Mickey Morandini, 88 behind Tom Herr, 134 behind Tony Taylor; 41 in front of Ted Sizemore, 62 in front of Denny Doyle.
take a guess where he is in relation to Bob dernier
Good question. (Haven’t peeked.) I’ll be conservative and say the fleet centerfielder/pinchrunner swiped 103, which would place Utley one strong Terry Harmon season behind.
Whatever Dernier compiled, mighta had more if he didn’t drag on cigs. On 2nd thought, his total is probably greater; I’ll definitely take the over. I recall one big Phillies year numberswise. Not sure how many years he started for Cubs. In sum, I haven’t a clue … somewhere between 30 and 300.
I shoulda guessed before I ran across his name. Not sure what I’d have said, but you sold yourself short. Outstanding guess. Chase passed him tonight. Bobby had 99. Like I said, what knee problem? I’m hopeful he plays tomorrow.
Dinger: ’bout time ol’ man.
When bastardo comes in to go for the save, he’ll be putting a mark of 1 hit against for the month. Batting average against of .038. WHIP of 0.58.
But even with 3 Ks, when it comes to getting League Pitcher of the Month honors, he’s not gonna make it.
The line of the night goes to David Hale who scribes “that oughta prove that the Ironpigs would win the AL East.
That is what you call gooooooood.
Putting the first half, now complete, on pace to win 102.
It’s really hard not to grade 6 Phillie pitchers with A’s in the first half of the year. Oh, you might quibble on A or A minus if you looked at enough data, but honestly, I feel ya gotta give As to Cole, Doc, Cliff, Ryan, Bastardo and Valdez. Hell, yes. Valdez. I’m not sure off the top of my head that Stutes doesn’t even get one, but even if you cut it to the hardly disputable 5, look at it like this.
Take the whole history of the Phiadelphia National league baseball club. Its like 125 years. Take the first half of each of those years. What would the total number of guys that graded As in that time be. I seriously doubt it would be more than 80-100, figure 1 per year at best, maybe 1 starter and 1 reliever at max for so many losing clubs. And here you have 5 in one year. It’s been so much fun watching this, and the party rolls on.
Agree on your 5 blocks of granite and one heroic chip. Greatness by osmosis.
I nominate Wayne Twitchell’s 1st half of ’73 for an A+. Shame he got hurt; was never the same.
These aren’t your big brother’s BoSox. The incandescent Pedro, the indomitable Schilling, the invaluable Damon and the inscrutable Ramirez were a truly special bunch.
I guess the underlying psychology among the masses today is the shot at sweeping this Red Sox club. That, in particular doesn’t really excite me. I’m more concerned with consistency, as in going on the road, and playing well, and not giving back in Toronto. Even a failure to do that isn’t terrible, but it’d be a nice way to head toward the break.
The more important reason I see for winning today (than sweeping) is because in his last 2-3 starts now, Cole continues to pitch terrifically, and has not gotten in the W column. I’m not trying to promote winning as more important than peripherals in the big picture, I’m just not real keen on an H2 ’10 repeat of great pitching and no winning decisions. It’d be nice to see him go into the All Star Game with 11 wins.
INO, very fair, astute valuation of Ryan Howard.
http://phillysportsdaily.com/phillies/2011/06/30/author-jonah-keri-ryan-howard-is-the-phillies/
My goodness, they could have just interviewed me for the article last year. I have been saying the same thing since the deal was inked.
Like this whole team, Howard is now “reduced” to producing titles, how he helps when the regular season is over. If he is integral to producing more titles and/or keeping seats filled, phils on MLB network all the time, etc., then he earns his money. Same really can be said for Halladay, Lee, Utley, and any other high-priced player.
As an aside, has anyone really investigated this madson injury. Are we really sure he didn’t punch a water cooler? I know they are brushing it off to getting hit by a batted ball, but 13 appearances after that and pretty good results? Smells fishy to me.
Let me say also that I don’t have a problem with the stats argument either. My point simply has always been that RAJ inked him to the deal based on more than stats, which I think is true and I am OK with it.
I mean rollins is likely gone, utley could retire at anytime. I think they were looking 3-4 years out and didn’t want to take the chance of losing their entire home-grown core.
Utley’s contract runs through 2013. There’s no reason to believe he won’t fill it, and fill it with the Phils. Without checking, the contract is for reasonable value, by modern standards. From that standpoint, he’s tradable. The only way Chase Utley is traded is if physical injury pretty clearly negates him from playing defense, and an AL club salivates to have him as their DH. Chances of such an injury are slim. Chances of him not playing through 2013 are as good as the next Pope not being Catholic. Not to rush the current Pope out of his lifetime contract, but it’s a good refernce point.
You are probably right, but what concerns me is he may currently have, and is playing with, the injury you are referencing that pushes him into the AL. It would be nice to trade him before that becomes obvious and public knowledge – maybe after this year. I would love that Espinoza kid from the Nats but doubt Wash would do that trade.
madson took a batted ball off hand – i forget which game, but i remember seeing it.
I think June could be called “Lost in the Shuffle Month.”
You know without even checking numbers that the starting pitching has been outrageous. But a couple cases in point.
Feel is not necessarily a great indicator, but as memory goes, it kinda feels like Doc, as the prime example had a pretty good month, but not necessarily celebratory. Yet, he turned in this line that quite often, you’d kill for…
36.0 IP 3-0 record 2.00 ERA 32 hits 3 freaking walks 3-0 record and we won each game he started..242 batting average against.
That’s a representative nomination for Pitcher of the Month honors.
Worley goes 18 innings, records a 1.00 ERA, runs a batting average against of .175, and the Phils won every game he started.
Hamels had a 1.45 ERA, and held opponents to a .185 batting average.
Then there’s Bastardo, who with today still pending, had a workload of 9 2/3 innings, and got whacked around to the tune of 1 hit. That acceptable batting average against of .000 swelled to .034, and his WHIP was/is .052. He, like Doc, might be a Pitcher of the Month contender, although under 10 innings is a pretty low total.
So if these factoids are lost in the shuffle, I guess there’s 1 guy who overshadowed all this.
check out Jordan Zimmermans June stats. In the era of the pitcher, seems like every team has at least one guy who excelled.
Tip of the cap to the Braves for sweeping Seattle, and the Giants for their recent run after losing alot of players. NL champ seems like a 3-team race, with Milwaukee having a chance if their pitching comes around. But i doubt it considering nobody on that staff has weathered a pennant race.
REvisitng the year of the pitcher theory. While overall hitting is down, we have a good number of players this year that are on pace for monster offensive season. Reyes, AG, Fielder, Bautista, Texiara, among them. Their seems to be more upper crust hitters this year breaking through than last year.
I like MLBTR, you’d have to be pretty picky not to think of them favorably, as opposed to not, but where the hell they came up with this creation is like wow…
The Braves are checking out available hitters. Some rival executives have speculated on the possibility that the Braves will consider trading Jair Jurrjens, whose stock has never been higher.
that story was started by Buster Olney on his daily post over at ESPN I’m told.
Difficult to fathom the year REyes is putting up. .350, on pace for 60 steals, 42 doubles, 30 triples, 130 runs. MVP is clearly his to lose. Fielder is in the mix if he can lead the Crew to a division title. I don’t think any pitchers are. As good as Halladay is, not enough to win an MVP with all the other good pitchers out there. For a pitcher to win an MVP they typically need to lap their counterparts at the position. Which brings me back to REyes and I can’ think of another leadoff hitter (shortstop or otherwise) even approaching his value. We really are in a dry period for leadoff hitters.
well, since you mentioned Reyes as an MVP candidate, it gives me an easy chance to clear up something I said yesterday about the 3 leading candidates for MVP being Fielder, Braun, Kemp. Didn’t think it was worth clearing up, but since you mentioned it, it’s easy enough to followup that Reyes is most definitely a top candidate also.
Reyes is having a retahhded (as they say in beantown) season. Hes looking like the guy the mets always hoped he would be…. Unfortunately, based on what I’ve heard coming out of NYC, his numbers just lessen the already slim chance the Mets had of being able to re-sign him. Will be interesting to see what kind of a jersey he’s wearing at the end of the year…
Howard currently sits at 250 / 16/ 62, with an OPS of .826 at the halfway point. It doesn’t take a brain surgeon to figure out what that translates to for the year.
While most would kill for 32 / 124, I don’t think that is good enough and would clearly show a 3-year decline, and indicate a possible nasty trend.
What I am hopeing to see, and is not unrealistic based on past performance in the second half, is 38-40 / 135-140 and get the OPS over .880.
All that being said, if he does 32 / 110 and carries the offense to a title in the playoffs, he would have earned his money in my book. But if he does 32 / 110 and flops in the playoffs, I would join the nervous camp.
Howard’s definitely a second half player. Last year he twisted his ankle just as he was coming out of his mid season slump & IMO, was never quite right after that. I do expect him to start breaking out at some point before the summer is over. On the other hand, It probably is realisitic to expect that he’s going to start losing power over the next couple years. The key for me will be how well he can make adjustments & keep producing runs even if not as many of them come via the long ball.
I love Howard, but find him, along with Ibanez, to be incredibly frustrating to watch. He seems to make few adjustments and continues to swing at some of the worst pitches imaginable.
You know what I love about Howard? I’ve never seen a guy who inspires so many I loves prefacing comments about him. It amazes me. Everytime somebody wants to point to a flaw of his….everytime….its I love Howard, but.
I love Ryan Howard too, but I’m tired of too many people loving him.
I agree that he doesn’t seem to be good at making adjustments. It could become a real concern if it continues, but i’ll wait until his production starts to drop before i get workup up about it. And despite what the sabr crowd says, RBIs are the type of production that matters from a 4 hole hitter.
what a bitch. 2 games in a row, Utley steals a base, and with 1 out, and the 4 and 5 hitters just can’t get the run home. Just kinda disappoints ya.
See above comment. 4-6 rally killers all.
well, it is Herndon. Far be it from me to try to know what’s going on in the dugout, but as its the non pitching hand, it’s a disappointment to see Cole come out. Probably the smart thing, although it doesn’t seem right from far away. I assume its precaution.
Regarding the comments above on Danny Espinosa, and the idea of acquring him, I would guess there as much chance of him being taded by the Nats as Strassburg or Harper. You’d never know it from his batting average, but that young man, in a would be poll of 10 scouts, would probably draw Cano-Utley production comparisons from several. He’s going to be there a long time. Power, defense, matter of time before he puts it all together offensively.
I can’t get too specific on this because I forget the kid’s name, I think it’s Cesar something, but in the spring, Conlin wrote a piece mentioning him as a 19/20 year old that projected him as a possibly perfectly timed prospect to replace Utley at contract end. With galvis and this kid, the system depth at 2nd and short isn’t totally dire at least, although Galvis is a huge question offensively.
This is why Charlie/Dubee pulled Cole.
With early Hamels exit, #Phillies starters end June w/1.96 ERA – 1st team since July ’92 (#Cubs, #Braves) to go full month under 2.00. #MLB
Charlie seemed to throw in the towel a bit early today (Hernden), but I suppose it is understandable considering expectations for tomorrow (possible extensive use of bullpen).
Two on, two out, Stutes up in the pen, if Raul can get on. Nah, guess it will be one of the triple a guys.
its not hindsight, it was the right call, or predictable call at least.
Mathieson doesn’t have his confidence, he’s the long guy/long guy alternative. Carpenter hasn’t developed the skippers confidence either, and that was before this demolition. Baez is more a behind innings eater.
Herndon threw grounders, which you kinda want (remember how he gave up homers galore before he got optioned?).
Bullpen’s good, but it’s like the rich are rich, the poor are poor. Madson, bastardo, Stutes all very good.
But the bottom guys aren’t necessarily poor, but not so good.
Shame they felt the need to pull Cole, but it was probably the right call, all things considered.
I’ve been listening to LA & Franske today, so i didn’t see where Herndon was leaving his pitches, but they also talked about how if Herndon is getting guys to hit grounders that happen to find their way through, there’s not much you can do about it. LA also was impressed with the change he’s started throwing. Mentioned that he hadn’t given up a run in his last 11 innings…
Not sure if they said it on the teevee broadcast, but hamels had xrays on his non throwing hand – no breaks, but he’s apparently got quite a shiner from the ball that knocked his glove off.
Yeah, I’d agree that Herden wasn’t nearly as bad as his box would indicate. Also agree that considering tomorrow, Chaz didn’t have too many options. Watch Kendrick throw a shutout tomorrow (13 fly balls and liners caught on the warning track.)
well, being as this game has inspired such a wonderful feeling, might as well share the tweet of the week to the masses.
Its from an unidentifiable source since its revelation might well be interpreted as self promotion.
Da tweet said….
Raise your hand if you stood up in Brooklyn in 1957 and predicted that if the Dodgers dared leave for SoCal, they’d g bankrupt.
Not too bad.
another good point from twitterland…
another MVP candidate is Brian McCann. Forgot about him, too.
if Shane goes deep here, I will believe in the tooth free, the IRS closing its doors, and sunny and 72 forever.
check that, Bennie fresh
Good inning for Drew Carp in progress. he has succeeded in knocking Warren Spahn, oops, I mean Jon lester out of the game.
Meanwhile, speaking of the dead, Tek now has 501 XBH in a fine career.
Righthandedness’s answer to Cole Hamels, Justin verlander is throwing against the mets today. As is his usual motus apperende, he leads, 5-1 thru 6, with 6 Ks.
But the big story on Other Action news is that the mets shortstop is 2-2, and now batting .353.
First pitcher to hold reyes to 0-5 in a game wins the CY.
didn’t check numbers, but leaving bennie in against paps is pretty cool, the way bennie hits fastballs
So still another pitcher gets to 10 wins before Cole hamels. Must be 5-6 guys there now, maybe it just seems like it, but he had a shot at being first, or certainly early.
Sure had a chance, once again showing how you stop the bleeding when you have the chance. The runs after herndon loom large in retrospect.
Fun series against a good club. They won’t die easily. The June results have been well documented, winning for the first time since 07, and fantastic pitching, particularly starting. But, this tweet from Ken davidoff not only shows how good the pitching was, but how there are multiple ways to skin a cat.
The #Yankees in June – Hitters: .270/.358/.452 and 5.8 R/G. Pitchers: 3.42 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 7.0 K/9. Record: 18-8.
We are used to seeing Phillies fans wherever the Phillies play. Interesting to see all the Sawks fans in our home court. I’d suppose many of them are from Boston itself, the others local “intellectuals” out to mingle with unwashed rubes from Philly. Life style accessories in the 21st: Yankee hats for the sophisticated, Red Sox for the academy. Cheers and knowledge of game optional (for these types).
I was at the game yesterday & happened to be sitting next to a guy who drove down from Boston to see the games. We actually got along fine. He wad a good sport & was impressed by the Bank. But I did have to laugh when he commented that “this place is huge”. Perspective is a funny thing sometimes.
Vote for your most hated athletes and teams here http://www.yourgameistrash.com/Most_Hated_Athletes.html … help keep philly out of the top 5!
Looks like today’s game is the MLB.com freebie of the day. There goes anyone else’s last excuse to pay attention to their job if they are still there.
You got a link? I couldn’t get it to work…
go to mlb.com, click on videao., and select the Phils Jays
I love Ryan Howard, but this game already has 3.5 hours written all over it.
http://mlb.mlb.com/shared/flash/mediaplayer/v4.2/R8/MP4.jsp?calendar_event_id=14-288137-2011-07-01&content_id=&media_id=&view_key=&media_type=video&source=MLB&sponsor=MLB&clickOrigin=MSB&affiliateId=MSB&team=mlb&
This is a direct link to the feed of today’s game. Now whether this opens or not, as opposed to what I’d think is the more likely link to open, the one off the video page, I would doubt it, but who knows.
What’s that locker room thing the players have or used to, that Akangaroo Court deal where they contribute fines. From now on, Uncle Selig, on the best interests of the game clause needs to pass a law that any player swinging at a first pitch that doesn’t get a hit pays a fine. I mean Jimmy hit the ball solidly, but damn.
That’s the sort of play that prompts the unique reaction of I love Ryan Howard, but he’s my son.
it’d be interesting to have the all star game managers chosen by the fans based on first half performance. I don’t know how practical it’d be, but the results would be interesting. Like would Clint Hurdle have a chance? Not that there’s anything wrong with the present system, but all star games are kind of a way of warminjg up for individual player awards (CY, MVP), yet, awards for managers only come 1 time. Even the other sports methods of decision are based on what have you done for me lately, but on W/L, which is kinda well, not boring, but not as fascinating as the voting would be.
got that Romero pitch count headed toard the sky so far. Close to 70 pitches. Some consolation at least. Through 3
Somewhere, over the rainbow, a Chase Utley stolen base will coincide with a run later in the inning. Man alive.
I’d guess the plan is to use Kendrick as long as possible, with no pinch hitter needed, and some heavy pen use yesterday. Baez could pitch, but the ahead guys probably won’t, and most of the others worked yesterday, so hopefully, he can at least keep it close.
Verlander/Cliff June comps http://calltothepen.com/2011/06/30/verlander-vs-lee/
I must say, I do like the way we’re hangin in this game. I mean it’s what you’re supposed to do, and my expectations are a freign subject to the reality of do or don’t, but it’s a pleasant surprise. 4-3 Jays now
If I’m not mistaken, it’s been quite a while since Willie GIDP now. I know for fact he hasn’t hit into 1 since he last did so, which almost feels like a record, but I think the last 1 was about a week before he competed for the CY.
I love Ryan Howard, but I sure wish Chase had led off by getting on. Hush, hush. A lifetime pass is a lifetime pass.
I bet the fate gods wind up taking Shane down All-Star road. What a clutch job. Now cmon Bennie.
Do you send KK back out with the new ballgame. Man. That’s a tough one. But maybe we get a lead.
Like Rudy T said. Don’t never be underestimating the heart of no champion nohow.
This tough with just Stutes and Bastardo. This B7 is a bitch to guess who we use. I just don’t know about KK for 1 more.
This shows as a golden op for Kyle to really step up. Finish strong a la Doc, and validate the confidence of Skip and Doobs. I’m fired up for the guy.
Kendrick = missed bat.
Kalutchchch
That is one good hitting mofer. What else can you say? He is just so good.
Course now, lets say we don’t score. You have that don’t use your closer nonsense on the road, which makes me wonder who we use to keep it within reach. Best way to solve it, get a couple.
Alright, simple stuff. Stutes hold em, and we got the heart of the order up to get it done. Simple breakdown.
Hss to be this road crap that Charlie theorized to bring Baez in. So, we’ll see.
Got some nice pitching depth left now if we can get it tied, or a lead. Worked out well using Baez.
So Polly, who is 0-6 years needs to get on, or Chase, who set Kendrick up for that bautista homer can redeem, and then I love Ryan Howard, but I’d really love him if he hits one to Montreal.
Anyway, let’s see if we can get as far as Chooch in the order, and get this sucker.
when I grow up, I wanna be a good 2 strike hitter. The UTMOST!
I love Ryan Howard, but nothing until maybe after this at bat
Best fuckin team in baseball.
Numero uno.
Bar none.
Cse closed.
this dude pitching for Toronto had to be 21 years old before he could correctly spell his last name. Holy nomenclature!
On the surface, we obviously should have gotten more runs, 2nd and 3rd, and all that good stuff. Doesn’t bug me that much in this instance. Clutch enough to get the leade. Might read differently later, but that’s the real time reaction. 1-2-3, and lets go home.
Was nice to see Paul hagen suggest Bastrdo should be an all star. Tough call, on the difficulty of making up a roster, not Tony. 9 2/3 innings of 1 hit ball is where we start from for the lefty.
that is total sweetness. Kyle, Peter principle dude that he is, that tops out at a certain level, and there is no more pitches his heart out, and peripherals be damned, he really did a competent job. Jose is just murder. We’ll see what he does against Cy One, and the Other Cy One, but the kid hung, and hung, and we kept fighting.
Helluva job by the Skip today. baez proved to be the right call, and he went with Antonio against the riighties.
This team is of its own identity. Even with a nucleus intact, it’s got its own heartbeat, own character as the recent constituents of Phillies Golden Age 2. But as I watch the character come forward with the never give up win, I am visually reminded by this game of Dallas at the podium, drenched in champagne, telling Whitey, “We got heart, yeah, we got heart.”
A stellar win for the bravos to gaze at on the scoreboardas we get back to the top of the rotation.
Happy Canda Day, Toronto,. And thanks again for the Doctor. he is nexxxt.
now 13-22 when the opposition scored 4 or more runs. Nice come from behind victory.
I know most are tired of my position on this, but after seeing Ryan drive in those two runs and watching Brown and Ruiz try the same and woefully fail, it is very hard for me to swallow that RBI’s are overrated stat. Yeah yeah, I know utley and Polanco has to get on before him…..
Bastardo can’t make the roster when his innings pitched is so low.
God forbid you should look at the innings pitched of other relievers before saying that about AB.
And for your information, RBI, if you go by mass public awareness of the casual fan, whatever the casual fan is defined as are definitely an overrated stat. However, they are in no way, shape or form a useless stat. There’s a fine line between the 2. Anyone in the sabermetric community that ttoally denounces RBI, and I’d question if there are any of them that go to that extent, but they might are as wrong as anyone that doesn’t realize the importance of teammates setting them up. The bottom line is Ryan Howard did his job today. And I bold and italicize that to substitute for the lack of verbalization capability, in which case I would emphasize that with the utmost of respect. A whole slew of heroes did their jobs today. Damned proud to be a Phillies fan. As ususal.
Not sure why any reliever, outside of the 1 or 2 best closers in each league, should be an all-star. Too much specialization. Middle relief is the least important and carries the least pressure position in the majors. They are typically recent farmhands with potential or lifelong journeyman who weren’t good enough to be a closer or starter. Nothing wrong with that, but not worthy of an all-star spot. In the case of Bastardo, I think you have to at least permit the league to see him twice before annointing him – lets get a full season of excellence under his belt.
First, it’s a very fair point about the League seeing him more. I guess. I’m a common fan. That sort of statement is easy for common fans to fall back on. How exactly true it is, I’d be curious to see if the knowledgable types, like scouts would apply that thinking to this. That’s not a knock on you, it’s just a general comment, and a statement I’ve fallen back on, like in the case of Worley. But it’s probably true.
Regarding annointing Bastardo. I was curious to see what attention he’d get in an all star selection process I was paying attention to elsewhere, so I gave it some thought. I just wondered if he’d get it. Hell if I could pick an all star team. I mean, 34 players now. Hall of fame votes, award votes are tough enough, this might be the toughest of all, selecting a team. So I wondered what kind of attention he’d get. But no matter what the future holds for him, this is one outstanding run. Say what you want about 2nd time around, but his YTD WHIP, BAA, ERA, the whole gammet is outtasight. 10 2/3 innings most rec4ently, 1 hit. Not one run. One hit. THat’s what I appreciate. The present, that’s all I’m commenting on. And getting back to the all star thing, it was nice to see hagen think he deserves to go. Right or wrong, who knows.
I very casually looked at his IP versus other crelievers this morning. I wouldn’t confuse this as a well researched statement, but from the brief comps I made, i was surprised that his IP was even as close to some others compared to what i expected.
Cliff notes for Sunday, 73/11. literally.
7 scoreless is what it would take to touch 2.54 ERA today.
Cliff has now allowed 37 runs for the year, 36 earned.
Cole’s at 31 and 0 unearned.
Doc’s at 2.44, and has given up 1 unearned run.
Worley looking real sharp since coming back. I’m remaining cautious on a rational level, but as a fan it’s tough not to get excited about it. Between him & the Stutes/Bastardo combo, the farm has really come through for us this year. Not every team can lose two high quality closers, an top of the rotation guy, and a solid back of the rotation guy without missing a beat.
I think most of us who scribble here are trying to be cautious in our comments about Worley and Stutes/Bastardo but they really HAVE been Ridiculously good. Some threads ago, I asked what a lot of you more-knowledgeable types thought about Worley. The comments were uniformly cautious BUT simultaneously positive (not another KK.)
Got to say I was really impressed yesterday. He hit 94 once, his pitches were moving all over the place, his composure was excellent. Stutes and Bastardo, of course, have been the great surprises of the season. I LOVE how both of them go right after the hitters. Somebody on the farm is teaching these kids the right stuff! Anyone living on planet Earth knows they will falter from time to time, but this has been an amazing thing to watch.
I love that take-it-to-em attitude out of all three of these guys also. Blanton would always get in trouble when guys got on base when he would start gettting timid with his pitches (“nibbling” as wheels likes to say).
as for worlety, its also worth highlighting that he went 7 innings in his last 2 games (one against a very good offense, and one against a decent offense the second time around). One of my bigger concerns with him is that he’d be a high pitch count type guy who would give you maybe 5-6 before he had to be pulled. Time will tell as more video & scouting reports accumulate, but the fact the hes been improving so far is nice.
Yeah, the Marlins have a far better offense than the record would indicate. Worley deserves a hell of a lot of credit. Hopefully, he will turn out to be a solid starter. Wouldn’t it be wild if he turned out better than Drabek?
Nobody is better than their record would indicate. Let alone a team with a young power hitter still finding his way (check the strikeout totals), a shortstop having an Ugglaesque season, a replacement for Uggla who unless he’s gotten hot, was in the .550 OPS range last time I checked, and John Buck yucking it up. They might be better by image, but that’s worthless. leastwise to me. The Fish are 23rd in OPS in the bigs.
Personality and likability aside, it’s pure conjecture that the Vanimal becomes a solid major league starter. Solid is open to definition of course, but his K totals to date just don’t reflect a guy that’s gonna anchor himself in any rotation. The question right now is can he solidify as a back of the rotation trusted guy. Count the number of swings and misses the next time he pitches, and you’ll see where he’s at. Particularly since it’s against the only good hitting club in the division, the Mets.
Actually if you look at the numbers (I usually don’t have the time to do so but just had a glance), the Marlins’ offensive numbers are pretty comparable to the Phillies. Makes you wonder just how badly the Phillies’ hitters would do if they had to face their own pitchers.
Also, if you look at Worley’s K totals, they are fairly good, comparable with say Maddiux’s per 9 innings (a truly great pitcher not known for his strikeouts.) K’s are great in certain situations, of course. I rather have a ground ball on the first pitch, everything else being equal.
As to “image”, no gap could be greater than the Phillies actual offensive performance and their “image”. People on this blog regularly talk about how “the offense will eventually come around”. This late in the season, no evidence of such “coming around” exists; I don’t expect that will change sans an addition before the deadline. I could be wrong, of course; I hope so. It is one of the reasons that talk of “great” pitching from the other team or attempts to compare the great Phillies pitching (where “image” and reality actually DO meet) with an opponent’s pitching drive me crazy. Usually the Phillies pitchers have a MUCH more difficult task than do the opposition. I am not claiming that 2011 will not be a successful year. Only that if it is a success, it will have little to do with a good and consistent offense.
If you were to actually parse my comments, there was no claim that Worley will either be “solid” or a top-of-the rotation-guy. Don’t have any idea where that came from. I think “hopefully” was the adjective used, and in the context of a reliable, relatively consistent guy (“open to definition, of course”.)
I hadn’t looked at the marlins numbers, but yeah they’re worse than I thought. Anyway Boston is still to the point.
I don’t think anyone ever said Vance will be the next Cole. When I did my original post on him a few weeks back, I think I said number 3 starter was probably his ceiling. More likely in the 4-5 range. I think that’s still fair, but obviously any projections are just that at this point. Depends a lot on whether his secondary stuff develops anymore. In the meantime, his getting it done. Jamie Moyer might take issue with putting too much stock in swing & miss stats. Nothing wrong with pitching to contact if you can do it well.
Also nothing wrong with stopping to smell the flowers in the here and now & pat the kid on the back for a nice little run he’s putting together.
Don’t have any idea where that came from.>>
from your imagination. Barely a day goes by where Worley topics don’t project him as this, that or the other thing. I never said that you said that. I made a general statement that <<Personality and likability aside, it’s pure conjecture that the Vanimal becomes a solid major league starter.>>
But you did say <<Yeah, the Marlins have a far better offense than the record would indicate.>> which you followed up with <<Actually if you look at the numbers (I usually don’t have the time to do so but just had a glance) which strikes me as more concerning about being read carefully.
No big deal if that doesn’t bother you, and no need to defend it.
Anyway, you seem like a good guy, I’m not interested in a pursuit of this.
Ground ball versus Fly Ball ratios through 7/5/11
Doc 202 114
Cliff 153 126
Cole 165 92
Vanimal 66 55
KK 83 64
Bastardo 17 41
Verlander 139 147
Lincecum 154 95
Jurrgens 140 109
Ian kennedy 142 130
CC 190 120
Stutes 19 37
Madson 40 25
Hanrahan 57 27
Venters 90 16
The funny thing about checking the facts on the Spahn marichal duel was in checking the pitcher’s records after the game, you just knew without even checking that the peripherals were most assuredly good. I don’t even remember the W-L’s that i wrote yesterday, Spahn was like 11-4, Juan real good also.
I point that out relative to last n9ight’s Phils game, which as it wound it’s way to inning 9, I realized this is what they had in mind when they created W’s, holds and saves. Vanimal was terrific, Stutes was outstanding, and Senor was as usual, unhittable. I compare that with the John Lackey aided win by Brandon Morrow of the Jays, like 98 pitches, 5 innings, 4 earned runs, and in Roger pavlick spirit, gets credit for the same letter as Worley.
So it’s never gonna change, holds and saves are here to stay, and wins are older than take your pick of Al cartwright, or Abs Doubleday, but if you apply them to the right games, there’s no question that wins by a pitcher are relavant. Not a Roger pavlik plus 5 ERA 11 win first half that qualified for an all-star berth, but if you think Worley’s W last night was less important than the impressive periffs, more power to ya.
A good, well nuanced post
Although only one measure of a pitcher’s success, Wins definitely correlate with something (very) positive to some measurement of achievement. Hence, you look forward to a Clemmons’ 300, a Doc 200, a Pedro whatever-he has. Kyle Kendrick won’t get there, neither will any of the journeymen. It is hardy perfect, but does have some value over time, and particularly over seasons, when the stuff you talk about above tends to shake out the good from the bad, the great from the rest. Jettisoning the old metrics SOLELY in favor of the sabrestuff, and then crowing about it as some do, while simultaneously looking down their noses at the Hoi polloi who mention the old standards, strikes me as juvenile as the guy who suddenly doesn’t like a band or artist because the great unwashed have “discovered” them or him.
In any case, the farm has been particularly kind to the Phillies pitching staff this year.
Sorry, that’s “Clemens”.
The wins discussion gets at a larger issue i tend to have with the SABR crowd (or at least, it reminds me of it) - they fall so much in love with their own metrics that they tend to write off the value of traditional stats. and its sort of a wonky point, but there is a difference between a traditional (“counting”) statistic & a metric (though a stat is a specific type of metric). Generally a stat means that you’re just counting the number of times something happened. Plain & simple – 30 stolen bases, 100 runs scored, something like that. Sometimes you take an average of the number of times something happens.
This has drawbacks – it doesn’t always take all of the complexities of the game into account. So these guys started applying statistical modeling, assigning “weights” to different events, etc., to try to account for more variables. Which is cool. It gives us a lot of perspective we didn’t have before.
But it has drawbacks also. Anytime you create models, assign weights, ect., what you’re really doing is making assumptions. And a lot of effort has gone into making these assumptions, but no model will ever reproduce life exactly (a lot of people on wall st. learned this that hard way in 2008). There will be times when models produce results that dont jive with our experience. This is when you have to take a step back (and look back over some more concrete stats) and ask yourself whether the model is enlightening us with perspective we didn’t have before, or if its just a bit glitchy. WAR is a great example, because its one of the most complicated models out there (and it also relies on UZR, another very complicated model).
Long story short, I like how the newer metrics give us so much more to talk about, but they dont overrule or outweigh traditional stats, they just add more prespective to the mix.
Good discussion on Worley. Again, it all needs to be set in the context of where the franchise is currently. Currently it is title or bust for this team for the next 2 years. You have to assess whether he better helps you achieve that for what he is (likely a 4th-5th starter) or as a trade piece that helps you land what you need more to get to where you need to go.
To me it is clear that if another team wants him, then he needs to be a trade chip as part of a package to land offense.
The consensus here seems to be he is not a top of the rotation long-term potential guy. So trade him.
let me just also say that I have no clue if he had top of rotation potential. It seems to be more the consensus he is more JA Happ than Cole Hamels.
The argument for not trading him is pretty strong. Blanton & Oswalt are both question marks at the moment, and no matter how good 1-3 are, you still need a 4 and a 5. So at least in the short term, he’s filling a need (and better than Blanton was, at that). If it turns out Oswalt and Blanton are fine and come back strong, i’d at least consider it, but you also have to wonder about next year. We have players up for new contracts, and we will probably have to go out and at least get an outfielder. If he gets you a proven stud, I could see it. If not, you’re probably just filling one hole by creating another one that will probably be more expensive to fill.
At any rate, I think its a bit early to talk about a consensus on what he’ll be, unless it’s just a general consensus that he’s shown promise but needs to show more over time.
s to “image”, no gap could be greater than the Phillies actual offensive performance and their “image”. People on this blog regularly talk about how “the offense will eventually come around”. This late in the season, no evidence of such “coming around” exists; I don’t expect that will change sans an addition before the deadline. I could be wrong, of course; I hope so. It is one of the reasons that talk of “great” pitching from the other team or attempts to compare the great Phillies pitching (where “image” and reality actually DO meet) with an opponent’s pitching drive me crazy. Usually the Phillies pitchers have a MUCH more difficult task than do the opposition. I am not claiming that 2011 will not be a successful year. Only that if it is a success, it will have little to do with a good and consistent offense.>>>>
Excellet post by Josea… I have seen few less imposing 55-32 teams in history. Right now the Phils scare nobody. While nobody is excited about facing the starting staff in a series, every team’s hopes are billowed by the knowledge if they can just eek out 2-3 runs, maybe even 1-2, wins are likely to come. They are simply not a complete team. They must make a dramatic move at the deadline to put themselves in better position to make, and maybe win, the WS.
I think I’ve posted before that I’d give it a slightly better than even chance that amaro does something crazy, but its a bit odd to talk about the phils only having the image of a good team. The opposite is true. The are in fact the best team in baseball by the only measurement that counts.
As I head out for a week or more of 18 hour days, I’ll give it one last shot. I never claimed the Phillies’ image was less than their performance. I directed my comments solely towards the offense: that the general perception of many fans (and posters here) was different from the actual performance of that offense. The pitching is another matter altogether. From front to back, obviously excluding the dregs who threw tonight (the only major leaguer the Fish saw tonight was Stutes) the Phillies are one potent machine. Their overall “image” is actually in keeping with who they are, albeit with some distortions from those that swing the bats.
Of note are the “overrated” Braves who do not appear to be so overrated. Always visible in the rearview, they are creeping closer than I’d like despite the fact that we are playing well (at least in the W / L column.) They have arguably the best pitcher in baseball, and a solid staff behind him, and like the 2010 Giants, they appear more than able as situational hitters. I’d expect 2 out of 3 here if we can string a few of our usual 6 hits in a row.
I definitely agree that the offense isnt what it once was, but there really are some positive signs. Rollins & Utley are both heating up. Victorino has been having a good all around year. Brown is showing some signs of starting to get it, though he’s still prone to these rookie moments. Howard is a bit below where you’d like to see him, but he really has been a second half guy over his career. Polanco worries me bit with his back troubles. Ruiz obviously not having the year he did last year, but he’s still coming through with his signature clutch hits & having good, professional at bats in general.
Agree that the Braves are for real. This is going to be as close as you can get to a playoff atmosphere in July. We have a chance to really make a statement, & they have a chance to make it a dogfight from here on out.
I will say that the errors drive me up a freaking wall though. It should be 4-1, maybe 4-2, and we should be up right now.
Well the cliche I usually hear is that if team x can just get team y’s starter out if the game, they’ll have a shot against the bullpen. I just caught myself thinking that if Kendrick can just hold on for another inning or two and we can get to our ‘pen, things will feel a bit better…
Yeah, that usually would be the case, but at this time there are only two competent pitchers in the pen. With the obvious exception of Stutes, Kendrick was probably the best option of the lot, a sad commentary on the current state of affairs on the fifth day. The AS break could not come at a better time!
yeah, as soon as i saw herndon come out, i got out the bottle of hot sauce to make the crow i had to eat a bit more palatable. At the end of the day though, it shouldn’t have mattered. Take away the three errors(it was at least three that i remember distinctly anyway), and we should have won without extra innings, case closed. sloppy defense has really been our achillies heel this year, imo.