Now that we finally know all the pieces of this deal, and it is finally official, we can start to examine what it all means.
Before we get to the pieces, I think it’s important to know why the Phillies went through all this trouble to essentially come out even for 2010. I think Jayson Stark summed it up nicely:
If this were just about 2010, the Phillies probably wouldn’t make this trade. Or they’d make the Halladay deal, keep Lee, clear payroll space by unloading Joe Blanton and unleash both Cy Youngs on the world.
Except that wasn’t their MO. This was about extending their window of NL dominance as long as possible, not for one brief run at glory.
If they’d stood pat, Lee almost certainly would have headed off next winter to hit the free-agent lottery. And they’d most likely have gotten outbid by the Yankees or Red Sox on Halladay. So without either Lee or Halladay, the Phillies very conceivably might have had to blow up their team and retool.
So that’s why they made the trade, now let’s look at how the actually did…
There are two ways you can look at it. The first is the Lee/Halladay/Drabek deal in a vacuum, the second is that deal combined with the Lee deal from last year. Personally, I think the best way to look at it is the latter, because that more encompasses the entire affect on the organization, but I will talk about the former later on.
Looking at it that way, the Phillies added and subtracted the following:
Phillies get: RHP Roy Halladay (who signs 3-year extension), OF Ben Francisco, RHP Phillippe Aumont, RHP J.C. Ramirez, OF Tyson Gillies, $6 million (from TOR)
Phillies give up: RHP Kyle Drabek, RHP Jason Knapp, RHP Carlos Carrasco, OF Michael Taylor, C Travis d’Arnaud, SS Jason Donald, C Lou Marson
A lot of these prospects are similar and I believe the cancel each other out. Aumont and Knapp are both hard-throwing, very raw pitchers who are probably best suited as future closers. Gillies and Taylor are both talented outfielders who hit for average. Taylor has more power, Gillies has more speed and Taylor is closer to the majors. I’m not going to pretend Taylor isn’t the better prospect though. Finally, Ramirez and Carrasco are similar in that they have great stuff, but it hasn’t totally translated into great numbers.
So, after canceling those out, the real impact of the deal is this (replace Marson or Donald with Taylor if you think he is far superior to Gillies)…
Phillies get: RHP Roy Halladay (who signs 3-year extension), OF Ben Francisco, $6 million
Phillies give up: RHP Kyle Drabek, C Travis d’Arnaud, C Lou Marson, SS Jason Donald
Considering that the deal on the table last summer (without any guarantee of an extension) was Drabek, J.A. Happ, Domonic Brown and Anthony Gose, I’d say the final result is definitely a win for the Phillies. When you think of the deal this way, it’s hard not to be excited.
Add to the fact that the Halladay extension (3 years, $60 million with a vesting 4th year) is well below market value for a pitcher of his caliber, and the deal only looks better. There isn’t a team in baseball that wouldn’t love to make that move.
But – there is another angle to this deal. Could the Phillies have done better?
Here are my concerns…
- Shouldn’t we have gotten more for Lee? Given that Lee put on a historic performance in the playoffs, I feel like we should have gotten a “can’t miss” prospect from Seattle or at least gotten Brandon Morrow instead of J.C. Ramirez. Maybe Amaro felt that we were playing with house money since we didn’t give up much to get Lee in the first place. Either way, I feel like we could have done better. Also, since this didn’t turn out to be a 3-team deal, aren’t there other teams that would have been interested in Lee that could have at least driven the price up? My guess on this is that once we made the deal for Halladay, our bargaining power to trade Lee vanished cause everyone would know we had to do it.
- Wasn’t there another way we could reduce payroll and keep Lee? You are telling me that NO ONE wanted Joe Blanton? Or Jayson Werth? I guarantee we got offers. My guess is the thought here is to the future as well as the present. Trading Blanton or even someone like Werth wouldn’t have gotten us the prospects we needed to replenish our farm system. Trading 7 prospects with little return in the farm system would have really put our future up in the air. I respect that, and will probably appreciate it in 2012, but right now I can’t help but wonder there was a way we could have cut payroll without trading Lee.
- Did it need to be Halladay? Couldn’t we have just signed John Lackey, traded Lee and kept our prospects? Or couldn’t we have traded the same package to Florida for Josh Johnson and kept our money, and Lee? My guess is that all avenues were explored, and certainly Lackey or Johnson can’t be considered the same caliber as Halladay, so that probably factored into it.
Final Thoughts
It’s incredibly tough to wrap your head around a trade like this, especially since many of us became attached to Lee last year, but here are my thoughts now that it is all said and done.
- The Phillies have done 2 things in the past 2 years that they have never done before. They traded high-level prospects for an ace, and they signed a pitcher to a long-term deal. When the dust settles, we have Roy freakin’ Halladay under contract for the next 4-5 years, at less money per season than Santana or Sabathia got. For all the other stuff that went on, THIS is by FAR, is the most important part of this trade.
- We got better in 2010. Halladay is the better pitcher. More details in a future post.
- We’ve increased our payroll by $50 million in the last four years (55% increase) – people need to shut up about us being “cheap” in not having the money to get Halladay without trimming payroll.
- I think Ruben got a little trigger happy and didn’t quite get the return on Lee that he could have. I think he saw an opportunity to lock up an ace long term and did what he had to to get it done. Maybe a little too quickly.
- I think people going crazy about Kyle Drabek need to calm down. Drabek is 22, has already had major arm surgery, has questionable character, and didn’t exactly light up AA last year (3.64 ERA, 92 hits, 76 K’s in 96.1 IP). Yes, he is the best prospect being moved in this trade, but he is not a sure thing by any stretch of the imagination. That being said, his departure does leave a hole in the rotation for 2011 and beyond that another prospect now needs to step up into.
- I am somewhat concerned about the future of our catching position after trading Marson and d’Arnuad. Sebastian Valle is in the pipeline, but his defense might get him moved to another position.
Updated Organizational Depth Chart and Payroll Analysis
After this trade, this is what the state of the organization looks like. Remember, this is always available on the right side bar. FYI: Cole Hamels is under our control in 2012 (he has one year of arbitration after his 3-year deal) and should listed as such on both of these charts (I will update them when I get a chance).
Organizational Depth Chart
Observations
- Replacing Werth with Brown in 2011 will make our line-up even more lefty heavy in 2011. You’ll see below that the money to sign Werth might not be there. This is something to keep an eye on.
- We’ve got 3 starters for 2011, which means 2 open spaces and not a lot of money to work with. Another situation to monitor. Hopefully someone like Kendrick, Carpenter, Flande or Savery can step up.
- A potential future outfield of Brown, Gillies and Gose would be really, really fast.
- We need one of our raw young arms, Trevor May, J.C. Ramirez, Jarred Cosart (misspelled first name on chart, sorry) or even Brody Colvin, to be a high-level prospect by 2012. In fact, we are going to need a lot of major league talent ready by then. Let’s hope a bunch of guys progress the way Drabek, Taylor et al had the last couple years.
Phillies Payroll Analysis
Observations
- Without doing anything, it appears our payroll is already higher next year than this year because of Halladay’s contract. It makes you wonder if they would consider moving someone (Howard?) to free up money to maybe retain Werth and go get another starter. It should be noted that J.C. Romero might come off the books if we buy him out.
- Or, maybe the financial hit everyone wants them to take will have to come next year, because they know that in 2012, about $75 million will come off the payroll.
- Speaking of which – the number of decisions that the team has to make by 2012 is pretty crazy. Extend Jimmy Rollins, Shane Victorino, or Jayson Werth? I don’t see a single bullpen arm under contract either and only Happ, Halladay and Hamels under contract as pitchers. Wow – that should be an interesting off-season…
Future Halladay Posts…
- Halladay vs. Lee, what is the difference?
- Analysis of each of the 3 prospects in my top-10 prospects posts.
Pete,
You may have explained this before but, why do you have a $500,000 slotted into your Payroll Analysis for players who have come of the payroll.
For example, Howard gets $19 M and $20 M in ’10 and ’11 respectively. Then in 2012-13 you have him down for $0.5 for each year. Am I missing something incredibly obvious? Is that just placeholder money to create estimates?
Oh, and excellent piece as has become regular occurrence.
Thanks Chris,
Yes, they are just placeholders. We HAVE to have 25 men on the roster to start a season, and we have to pay them at least the minumum.
I did this cause when people say “we have $99 million guaranteed to 15 players next year” people assume that if they don’t sign anyone, the payroll will be $99 million, which is not remotely true.
Joe Savery
Yohan flande
Drew Carpenter
Who are these guys? If they are good enough to be on a recent WC team in the big league this year or next how come we never heard of them as untouchable prospects or used as trade bait?
Pete,
Thanks, I figured it was something like that, appreciate the clarification.
PhillyFan-
Read the prospects posts.
also -
Do you really not know who those guys are? You gotta be more in tune with the team dude…
Good breakdown Pete.
Only a couple of big picture things I’d add:
1. In most trades they team that comes away with the best superstar wins. The Phillies got Halladay for 4years and the M’s got Lee for 1year. Sure the Phillies had to “sell the farm” but it still bodes well.
2. With prospects its quantity of talent as much as quality. If you trade away 2 good prospects the odds of getting badly burned are low.
…when you trade away 7 top 10 organizational prospects the odds that at least one will become a stud is very high. Especially when you got only 3 back.
Also Taylor and Drabek are top 30 prospects. Several of the current Phillies stars were viewed similarly in the recent past. None of the 3 prospects coming back are anywhere near top 30. Of course those ratings are fluid, but that is where they stand now.
—
So the Phils are in great shape landing the best player in the trade- and signing him long term. If the Phils win another WS it was a good move.
But I’m pretty certain that we will be hearing from several of the 7 Phillies they traded away- and probably well after the Phils current window has closed. That’s just part of the bargain when you send away 7 top organizational prospects… but kudos to the Phils for building such a great farm system to put them in a position to act. With the right system in place they should be able to replenish the farm.
It seems like the championship window closes after the 2011 season. We’ll still be competitive in 2012 but we would need some studs to emerge from the minors to be considered a championship caliber team. Who knows what will happen though, I didn’t see us getting Lee and Halladay via trades 2 year ago!! I think I would extend Rollins (out of Victorino, Werth, Rollins) since we really need good defense and we have OF depth in the minors.
I won’t be suprised to see us flip Halladay in 2012 at the deadline for prospects when we are no longer in the hunt. He’d be affordable still at only 20Mill. I’m sure he’ll have a no trade clause in the contract though.
Now the most important question…when can I get a Halladay jersey!!!! I’m so excited to see him pitch on a regular basis. He is a perfect fit for our ballpark and will be a tremendous influence on our younger pitchers. I expect the whole staff to get better from this move. He’s always been my favorite pitcher.
Not a Bush fan but, George Bush once said in an interview that if he could choose one positional player and one pitcher he would take Utley and Halladay. We got em both now!!!
Go Phils, back to the promised land in 2010!!!
the prospects don’t bug me. the only one I think has a chance to be an all-star is Taylor.
also – every year a new opportunity to put more money into the draft and international market. if we don’t make any huge moves with trading prospects, our system could be fantastic again in a year or two.
Drew -
I might get a jersey too.
Also, I think everyone who doesn’t like this move (a SHOCKING number of people, IMO) will change their thinking after a couple starts.
tk76, Aumont is listed at 33 by one site: http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/minorleagues/prospects/y2009/profile.jsp?t=p_top&pid=518418
So it’s not out of the question to put him near the top 30 prospects, which you dismiss.
Drew -
That’s from 2008 – he’s probably not on that list anymore…
BUT – it does show he has the arm to be great. I’m curious whether we view him as a starter or closer.
Also -
Word is he will wear #34, since #32 is retired.
Great analysis. I wonder since our FO has ties to the M’s system if there might be a reason they got the guys the did. Or maybe this really was the best Lee could bring.
One thing that’s clear is this deal didn’t get moving until we found a buyer for Lee. I think Amaro knew he could get Doc plus an extension. I think he didn’t get trigger happy on Lee so much as he went with guys he was comfortable could contribute, and knew a little about the 3 we picked up.
Time will tell, of course, but it’s undeniable that we are a better team this year than we were either of the last 2 years going into spring training. Well done, guys.
Dan-
“I wonder since our FO has ties to the M’s system if there might be a reason they got the guys the did.”
That is a great point. Benny Looper is probably VERY familiar with the guys we are bringing in.
I’d be curious to see where Matheison and Happ were placed in recent years. One guy looked great but blew out his arm and the other was arguably the best pitcher from start to finish for the NL champs last year.
I understand the need (desire) for those rankings but with so many different lists and so many different parks and leagues they seem way too unreliable.
Look at Carasco, he was supposed to hit the big’s with some pomp and circumstance but the minute they moved him to AAA he began to struggle and doesn’t seem to be regarded the same way anymore.
In my opinion, prospects are exactly that, if they’ve got the tools and we’ve got the system and coaches to put them in a place to succeed then they have a great shot at realizing their (and thus our) dreams.
Let’s not look past the fact that this organization had the structure to develop the 4th best system in baseball, that’s not just draft picks, its also the organization knowing what to do with their guys.
You can make the argument that Aumont’s potential took a slight uptick coming to this club. Same for Ramirez and Gillies.
Anybody else looking for and dreading the first Gillies/Phillies pun?
Funny, none of that text was bold when I typed it….
Drew, I was the one who originally posted the Aumont link
And as Pete said, that was in 2008- before he was moved to the bullpen. Not being a started dramatically downgraded him as a prospect.
“Word is he will wear #34, since #32 is retired.”
They ship him out for someone better and then give the new guy his jersey? Harsh.
Chris McC, bold or not, the point about the Phils farm is a good one. Especially if the Phillies can convert Aumont back into a future starter.
As for the Rankings- it is fluid, but you have to look at where players are ranked right now. And in the case of someone like Taylor, he’s like Howard in that his ranking is based more on his dominance at every level as opposed to his ‘tooliness.”
I’m for the trade, and won’t lose sleep over the prospects. Just also am expecting several solid players and likely one star from the group. I think Taylor could be a star, but it could very well end up being someone else- maybe one of the 3 the Phils got.
tk76,
the thing with prospects is not just talent, but timing also. You have to have a position for them.
I just need to say this…
We are the 2-time defending NL Champs, and the last NL team to win the World Series.
We just acquired arguably the best pitcher in baseball, who then signed a 3 year extension for reasonable money.
We (still) have a top-10 farm system.
We have a top-5, perhaps top-3 payroll.
We have a beautiful stadium.
Everything that people complained about this franchise 5 years ago has changed and we are now a model franchise.
And yet, a good number of fans are STILL saying the Phillies are cheap and don’t care about winning.
To those people: You need to shut the f— up, and you need to do it quickly. You would complain if we had a $250 million payroll, you would complain if we hadn’t made this move and ended up with no one next year, you would complain in 2012 when we had no farm system, you will probably complain if we don’t win the World Series this year, and point to this move as validity, you will always complain. But you need to stop, and learn to live in the real world.
There, I got that off my chest.
Please re-commence discussion.
Pete:
YES I have heard of the prospects. My point is I was wondering why, it they are young and telented enough to make a good big league team now, how come nobody wanted them in the trade. I never even heard them mentioned? And I never heard Amaro say they were untouchable. They seem to be in no-mans land.
The Phillies definitely have room for arms down there, and will have plenty of room with the big club in the next 2-3 years. A title contender with a short staff; this is a great place to be for young pitchers.
If you’ve heard of them, you probably shouldn’t say “who are those guys?” !
They aren’t high-upside prospects, so teams wouldn’t want them – but they could be 4-5 starters if they hit their ceiling.
From Chris,
So the Phils are in great shape landing the best player in the trade- and signing him long term. If the Phils win another WS it was a good move.
>>
While its a team game, and you win and lose together, and a number of individuals could be “blamed” for 09, the WS in 10 is not dependent strictly on Doc. If we win it all, and Doc has a good year, and he’s given credit, and Cole Hamels pitches like 08 instead of 09, I will scream. This is a good deal because you take a chance on a multiple year first ballot HOF ace, and gave up potential, not core players.
From Drew…
It seems like the championship window closes after the 2011 season. >>
2 things. One, how could it not look that way? Only 2 players are signed through 2013. And why do you think hey wanted to replenish the system? How many players from the 07 roster are still around. Things change all the time.
Pete,
The only thing I might wonder about in your excellent analysis is something we may or may not find out. You wonder if RAJ could have gotten a better deal for Cliff. I’d like to hear from him on that before leaning that way. I can very definitely connect dots to picture him as quick triggered, but he may have talked to several clubs about Lee, Blanton, heck, maybe even Ibanez with the idea of playing Fransisco everyday for all I know. And I’m sure these moves were not singularly decided on by Ruben. Committee decisions for sure, suggesting options were probably limited.
phillyfan, I think there was a spot open in the next 2 seasons for nearly every prospect they Phils traded away.
Still a big fan of the deal, but these players were not redundant parts. Makes a big financial impact. If you can replace both Werth, Ibanez, Moyer, Blanton and Coste with homegrown talent you can save a ton of money for other needs. If you have to buy even average players on the open market you could be talking in excess of 40M.
Why is Hamels gone in 2012? He will be arb-eligible that year and still under Phillies’ control. Are you assuming the Phillies will trade him after 2011?
Just tuned into the presser. Couldn’t we have gotten Barkan moved to Seattle too? God, I can’t stand that hack.
It’s funny to look at this. If JP Riccardi had made a considerably simpler, and significantly more appealing deal 6 months ago, he’d still have his job. Mulligan.
Hmm, Rueben admits that the Lee deal is 100% prospect related.
“We could have afforded them both.”
Ruben said this was a baseball decision. He said he could have kept both, but said the way the baseball busines works was toreplenish the farm aftergiving up the 4 for Cliff.
Roy: “This is where we wanted to be.”
Yeah, baby!!!!
KB,
I smiled every one of the four times he said that. He was all about being here, and all about telling us so.
my goodness, why cant we just accept a good thing happened and not be so determined to find the negative in this deal.
I got a Cliff Lee wallpaper on my computer and even I’ve gotten over it. dont get freaking hung up on some prospect that you popably never heard of until the trade rumors started earlier this year. who knows what we’ve lost, what they will become….who cares? we got Halladay!!
Mets fans have gotta be real peeved right now. its like the rich getting richer,,,,for a while anyway. we never got a chance to unleash Cliff Lee against the NL East considering it was almost a wrap by the time we got him. Halladay will be here on openeing night in Pinstripes. feels good to be a Phillie fan.
*catchers are like old salts. they keep going till their legs give up on them. depleting our farm system in that area may really hurt but if Ruiz stays healthy we may be able to bypass it for a while. Jaramillo seems ok, i hear.
He was all about being here>>
I swear, I am so numb. Watching that with Phillies across his chest was just something else.
Wonder if Doc might do 6ers-Cavs tonight. Be nice to see im get a real nice welcome.
I must say that I assume the HK patch will not be part of the uniforms for another year. And I understand that, but watching Doc talk about how he really wanted to be here, and knowing that he’s so good, it would have been special this coming year seeing him wearing the patch. I know Harry would be really touched seeing all the guys wearing the HK, and he would have loved Cliff Lee and the greatness he gave us, but the Doc is gonna be something really special, as is the memory of Harry.
One player being over looked for next year and beyond is Scott Matheison. He seemed to turn the corner last year after two elbow surgeries, and pitched really well in A and AA. Hopefully, he will continue to rebuild his arm stregnth and be in a position to help the ball club by the all-star break, since the rest of our high level pitching prospects are rather weak!
Cliff Lee ran off the mound like Chatsworth Osborne Jr.. Halladay walks from it like John Wayne. Commendable decision by Ruben Jr.
As I recall, last traded minor leagueer who was seriously lamented was Frank Thomas. Sandberg, a ML sapling when moved, was another large mistake. If you were in love with one of the Phils’ traded babies, remember THE RETURN OF ANDY ASHBY … love hurts.
Roy F’n Halladay is a Phillie!!! Sorry, I’m still trying to make myself believe this is real. The press conference helped a bit. The spring can’t come quick enough.
Chris McC, great point about the club’s role in player development affecting the prospects worth. Aumont looks like he could be special if he gets some things worked out. I read he didn’t even pick up a baseball until he was 14 and never played high school baseball.
Attention Phillyfan,
Yesterday, you expresed something quite like Halladay had never won a WS game, and Lee was so good in the WS.
Maybe you want to red this before doubting any potential Roy Halladay has given the opportunity to perform in post season competition…
For some reason, the Phillies’ front-office smarts are being cast in doubt by a segment of their fan base asking why they are simply switching Cy guys in a megaswap with the Jays and the M’s, while giving up a trio of top prospects to the Jays and receiving three in return from Seattle.
The answer lies in the simple fact that Halladay is significantly better than Lee and will be with them for a significantly longer time. The $6 million toward Halladay’s contract is a bonus.
Consider that against the big boys of the AL East, the Red Sox and the Yankees, Halladay is 32-20, with a 3.59 ERA in 516 2/3 innings. Lee is 6-8, with a 4.69 ERA in 107 1/3 innings.
Against the sad-sack Kansas City Royals, combined with the generally lighter-hitting lineups of the National League, Lee is 31-11, with a 3.65 ERA in 359 2/3 innings. Halladay is 26-11, with a 2.90 ERA in 322 1/3 innings.
Doc’s had stiffer career competition and excelled.
In the World Series, Charlie Manuel was unwilling to use Lee on 3 days’ rest because Lee had never done it before in his career. Halladay is 4-2, with a 2.79 ERA in six starts on short rest, averaging seven innings per outing.
courteasy Richard Griffith, Toronto Star
Chris,
Re: post #32
I didn’t see the presser, but I did read David Murphy’s write-up of it. Here are Amaro’s comments:
“We could have kept both of them (Lee and Halladay), but it was a baseball decision for me and our organization and the people in the organization. We could not leave the cupboard bare. If we had just acquired Roy and not moved Lee, we would have been in position to have lost seven of the best 10 prospects in our organization. That is not the way you do business in baseball … There are a variety of reasons to make this move, but more than anything else this is a baseball decision.”
“I would love to have both of them on our club. My job is to continue to have this club be a championship caliber team not just for 2010, 2011 but for many years beyond that. To that end, you have to have players in our system that will help us get there … We did acquire some outstanding players from Seattle in a trade for Cliff Lee. Cliff Lee did an outstanding job for us. There is nothing negative that I can say about the things Cliff Lee did for us and for our club for the half year he was here. This was an opportunity to get one of the best pitchers in baseball and bringing him here for several years.”
Needless to say, it surprised me to read this as much as it did you to hear it.
I love Halladay.
But RAJ is lying. No way he could have kept both pitchers. NO WAY you don’t keep both if you can. You can’t tell me that getting those three Seattle prospects is the difference between us being championship caliber in 2012 and beyond and not. My goodness, we are only playing for 2010. Win another title and worry about 2012 later. Those prospects won’t be the difference. I’m sorry, this was not a baseball decision. If it talkes 2012 and 2013 to rebuild – and by then the 2 #1 picks for Lee would look good – so be it. He can’t be that stupid and it just bothers me that he thinks we are that stupid to belive him. What is done is done. I had to get that off my chest. Was willing to let it die but RAJ egged me on with that presser. Welcome Roy!
i think the phils will try to make aumont a starter. i think its a waste if hes stuck in the pen. if he doesnt work out as a starter then he should be put in the pen, but until then i would try to make him a starter. and as for joe savery……. hes a flop……. former first rounder…….. it might just be me but i expected more from him.
phillyfan-
I agree that there was probably a money factor in not keeping Lee.
BUT – you are missing one point here. The three prospects we got might not be the cause of a 2012 run, but there are 2 ways the can help facilitate a run…
1. If they are on the roster, they will be making the minimum while being productive players, thus opening up money for other players. This is what Happ and Ruiz are doing right now. If we didn’t have them, we’d have to pay money to get another starter and catcher, and wouldn’t have had enough for Halladay.
2. They can be traded for a piece. There is a reason the Mets weren’t in on Halladay. They don’t have the prospects. They don’t have the prospects because they constantly traded them all away.
Keeping the farm system stocked is ALWAYS a good idea.
John-
Not alone on Savery. He never regained the velocity he had in college, and therefore throws mostly junk.
So I’ve been thinking about this more and more and had some good talks about it with buddies at the bar tonight and I have come to a conclusion:
Rueben Amaro Jr is the man! Look at the work he has done in his year and half on the job.
He brought in Cliff Lee, he basically made an offer to Toronto and when JPR wanted “the farm” (excuse the pun) he said no thank and went to Cleveland. It wasn’t a bluff, he took less than he was offering Toronto and turned it into Cliff Lee.
He signed Raul Ibanez. In the midst of a (rather) modest bidding war, he convinced Raul to come here because of the culture and potential.
He took a shot on Pedro Freaking Martinez. He brought Pedro to Philly! Yeah, he isn’t Pedro we’ve all come to know and loathe, not the Pedro that won 3 CY’s but even that was a big win for him. We won almost every game he started.
Now this. A three team uber-trade to land Halladay. He wanted to lock up Lee nice and early and when Lee exhibited the slightest apprehension he set in motion to most complex trade in baseball history, at least the last 30 years. He wanted an ace long term that wanted to be here, fortunately, that guy was out there. Boom, goodbye Cliff, Hello Roy!
I am bummed to see Cliff go, I am a huge CL fan, but it is nice to see a GM here willing to do what it takes to put a contender on the field every day.
Well done RAJ.
Definitely a man of action…
Chris,
Amaro’s only mistake so far has been giving Moyer a 2yr contract.
I can’t complain about what he’s done because he got us back to the WS last year and we have a legitimate shot again in 2010.
What I’d like to ask is this:
We heard the Angels were offering Joe Saunders, Erick Aybar, and outfield prospect Peter Bourjos for Halladay during the winter meetings.
Why wouldn’t they have offered Amaro the same package if not slightly less for Cliff Lee?
An interview with Benny Looper on the Phil’s new prospects (whom he has previous knowledge of):
http://zozone.mlblogs.com/archives/2009/12/looper_talks_prospects.html
Amaro’s only mistake so far has been giving Moyer a 2yr contract>>
First off, I might not be inclined to accept that as completely accurate. It is if you consider the funds could have been better spent, but it seems a little hasty on principle alone to conclude that when a guy of Moyer’s character has half the contract to prove some degree of worth. And while Moyer was not effective in the first half of last year, he did win 10 games. Jim Merritt once won 20 games for the Reds with an ERA of 4.08. 4.08 then (1970) would be the equal of 5.50 now. I suspect most baseball people would take that. Most fans wouldn’t, but baseball people would. Perhaps considering the options a the time, 2 years looked better to Ruben than 1. I was shocked by the length, but I don’t sit in the GM chair.
My main point is this. Ruben, whom I think the world of, might probably tell you himself he has made a lot of mistakes. Did he improve the bench during the season last year (Stairs, Bruntlett)? Improve the bullpen which glared of fault in a pretty weak division? Maybe there were deals he could have made that he didn’t that were mistakes. Brian Cashman and Theo Epstein, by reputation 2 excellent gneral managers, have made many, many mistakes. It comes with the territory of the job. All I know for sure is that Ruben is extremely proactive, and I like that.
Chris McC wrote post number 49 on this thread. I’ll copy it below for convenience. Chris expressed thoughts while at a bar on the night Claus, Santa delivered Halladay, Roy to The Big Club. Whether the post was pre liquored up or not, I don’t know. But anybody refers to Pedro Freaking Martinez is off to greatness from the get freaking go. This is an awesome read….
So I’ve been thinking about this more and more and had some good talks about it with buddies at the bar tonight and I have come to a conclusion:
Rueben Amaro Jr is the man! Look at the work he has done in his year and half on the job.
He brought in Cliff Lee, he basically made an offer to Toronto and when JPR wanted “the farm” (excuse the pun) he said no thanks and went to Cleveland. It wasn’t a bluff, he took less than he was offering Toronto and turned it into Cliff Lee.
He signed Raul Ibanez. In the midst of a (rather) modest bidding war, he convinced Raul to come here because of the culture and potential.
He took a shot on Pedro Freaking Martinez. He brought Pedro to Philly! Yeah, he isn’t Pedro we’ve all come to know and loathe, not the Pedro that won 3 CY’s but even that was a big win for him. We won almost every game he started.
Now this. A three team uber-trade to land Halladay. He wanted to lock up Lee nice and early and when Lee exhibited the slightest apprehension he set in motion to most complex trade in baseball history, at least the last 30 years. He wanted an ace long term that wanted to be here, fortunately, that guy was out there. Boom, goodbye Cliff, Hello Roy!
I am bummed to see Cliff go, I am a huge CL fan, but it is nice to see a GM here willing to do what it takes to put a contender on the field every day.
Well done RAJ. >> And well done, Chris McC!
By the way, per Chris’s most compliated trade in baseball history, and then wisely reducing that to the last 30 years. In or around 1964, Yankee pitchers Mike Kekich and Fritz Peterson pulled off the most complicated trade in baseball history. They traded wives. It just doesn’t get any more complex than that.
so no we need to just firm up our greatest weakness of 2009 – the bullpen. Interesting how little focus this has received. Do you think we are just counting on J.C. regaining his health? We have Lidge, Madson, J.C., Durbin, Eyre. It seems to me those are the only reliable arms. The key is whether J.C. can regain form and stay healthy and whether Eyre is committed to come back. I was hoping to sign Mike Gonzalez but he has signed with Baltimore. Although I wish we would have gotten him, I am very glad to see him out of NL – he killed out lefty bats. That is a big loss for Atlanta in their race to catch us.
A note on the vesting 4th year option.
I thought this would be some piece of cake, pitch 100 innings and you get it option, but it’s really not. Here is what Halladay has to do for that 4th year to pick up (according to Cot’s Baseball Contracts)…
225 IP? That’s no joke, and at least 190 in 2012 to go along with it. If he’s still pitching that many innings (I have confidence he will be) I’ll be happy to pick up that option.
Pete, if Roy is healthy, he’ll vest. If not, he won’t. If healthy, we’ll be glad to pay him the $$$.
I am not sure that Lee will get more per year than Doc, but I am fairly sure he’ll get a longer deal than Doc was willing to sign. I’m thinking Lee will get a guarenteed 4 or 5 years for about $20 per. It is the guarentees, not the per year, which scared the Phillies away, IMHO.
Dan -
I think you are absolutely right.
I think Lee will request a 6 year, $140 million deal, and end up signing something like a 5 year, $100-$120 million deal. Meanwhile, we get Halladay for 3 years, $60 million, and only the 4th year if he is healthy.
This is the main reason the deal was made.
Tony,
Re: We heard the Angels were offering Joe Saunders, Erick Aybar, and outfield prospect Peter Bourjos for Halladay during the winter meetings.
Why wouldn’t they have offered Amaro the same package if not slightly less for Cliff Lee?
I don’t know that this answers your question exactly, but I found an article on fangraphs that questions why Cliff Lee doesn’t seem to get the value in trades that many people belive he should.
A couple thoughts…
I found an article on dugoutcentral that is pro-Phillies (surprisingly, not many of them around). I found it to be a very good read.
Pete,
It’s stil happening. I just submitted 2 separate posts (each with only 1 link in it) and neither one of them has shown up here. Your spam filter really does not like me at all.
I guess I have no choice but to not put any links at all in my posts. Again, sorry for the trouble.
bski-
approved you.
Thank you for the sensable analysis. You present the best option for looking at this trade. People really have to get off of the money issue and recognize that money is not the major factor here. It’s the future. In early 2008 I would have said, sacrafice everything for a championship. Now that we’ve been there and have the potential to go there for years into the future, I’m a bit spoiled. I don’t want to see three or four great years, then back to the Phillies of old. I’m glad there was some replentishment of the farm. I’m impressed with Rubin and the Phillies front office. How they turned this around is still a mystery to me since Montgomery and the owners haven’t changed, but they’ve got it right now. You’ve gotta love it. Go Rubin!
I overall agree with the trade wholeheartedly, and I like the way you broke it down Pete. If you look at it in comparison and from afar. We got a half of year of Lee and Four years of Halladay for Drabek, Marson, Donald and D’arnaud. (taking Gillies and Taylor as a wash, Aumont and Knapp and Carrasco and Ramirez.) Who in their right mind wouldn’t do that? I also think we could;ve gotten some more for Lee from a desperate team like the angels, but it is only a rental and it’s over with. The bottom line is that Lee has had two of the best years in his career these last two years and Halladay was still a better pitcher in both of those years.
“Everyone needs to prepare themselves for Cliff Lee being awesome next year. Not only is he in a contract year, and now a pitchers park, but he is probably really ticked off about this whole trade.”
Pete, I was thinking the same thing. He’s going to pitch like a man possessed this season. And don’t forget the motivation he’ll get from his teammates. Pitching back-to-back days with Felix and having Figgins and Branyan swinging the sticks for you is a good way to get pumped.
KB, thanks, I occasionally find the fairway.