Was that it? Is that how our season ends? With a RBI single to left by Wes Freakin’ Helms and another strike-out from Arthur Freakin’ Rhodes as the nail in the coffin?
Not quite. But I’m not exactly lining up to buy my post-season tickets.
The Phillies are 3 1/2 back of the Mets, and 4 back of the Brewers with 16 games left to play. Meanwhile, we are tied with Astros, who are tearing towards the Brewers like a proverbial bat out of hell.
So how can we make it? Here are the schedules of those 4 teams…
Phillies: 4 vs. MIL, 6 vs. ATL, 6 vs. WAS
Mets: 6 vs. ATL, 4 vs. WAS, 4 vs. CHC, 3 vs. FLA
Brewers: 4 vs. PHI, 6 vs. CHC, 3 vs. CIN, 3 vs. PIT
Astros: 4 vs. PIT, 3 vs. CHC, 3 vs. CIN, 3 vs. FLA
On our end, we have to win every remaining series, starting with taking 3 of 4 from the Brewers. That would be 11-5 for the rest of the way, and put us at the elusive 90 wins.
If we do that, the Mets would have to go 8-9 in their last 17 for us to tie. Doesn’t seem likely unless the Cubs can sweep a 4-game series from them.
The Brewers would have to go 7-9. This seems like more of a possibility considering their 6 games against the Cubs. IF we take 3 of 4 from them, we would need to go 8-4 the rest of the way, and them 6-6. That’s do-able.
Unfortunately, if the Brewers go 7-9, it’s very possible the Astros could catch them. They have won 13 of 14, and besides the Cubs, don’t have too tough a schedule. They could easily go 12-4 and take this thing from everyone.
A lot of things have to go right, obviously, but it starts with us winning some games and taking care of OUR business. We’ve got to get to 90 wins, and just hope for the best from the rest of the crowd.
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Being a diehard basketball guy I normally I just root for the Phillies and hope for the best. But, this was the first real season I decided to get emotional involved with this team. Boy was that a mistake. I learned my lesson.
In fact, I should have learned my lesson all the times Pete would start PMSing after loses!
Stick a Fork in ‘em. I wonder what our record would be with Aaron Rowand in our lineup and locker room. I think this season plays out a lot differently.
Dan -
Agree that Rowand’s locker room presense might have helped us out of the funks we got in this year, but I think Jayson Werth picked up his production and clutch hitting just fine.
What is the big deal? The Phillies are built to win 85-88 wins and they deliver that year after year. We are right on pace to do that again.
Every year the Phillies are a fun and entertaining crew to watch, but I’ve never gotten emotionally involved with them because they aren’t a legit playoff team.
The Mets on the other hand imploded last year. You can’t count on that happening every year. And they went out and got the best pitcher in baseball to make sure they improved. It would be a tremendous shock if they weren’t several games better this year.
Depends on this series against the Brewers, you might consider them finished!!
Mathematics say otherwise, but I say if Sheets outduels Moyer, resulting in a Milwaukee “Brewskie” (W), then, yes, the Phillies are cooked bratwurst, stick a fork in ‘em. While our ‘hometowners’ relax and get juiced by lowered expectations and might exhibit a little surge in the follow-up, nothing in this team’s oscillating play indicates a collective power to sustain winning as would then be required for post-season ticket.
Today’s game is crucial, as opposed to important, in my opinion. If Moyer wields magic again and Phils earn W, the dream lives for another day – Kendrick’s or Blanton’s.
I have nothing of substance to say. I have been trying to keep the optimism going, but it is extremely hard with the way we are losing games. JC Romero should have lost his right-handed batter privleges on Monday when we were up 8-4 and he gave up a 2 run homer to Cody Ross. We kept the lead so that blow up was swept right under the rug. Righties have been rocking him all over the place(.436 OBP – .907 OPS). I have no answers. I have nothin else to say. It is desperation time.
With pitching question marks, Phils need offense to go turbo in final 16. That means Rollins, Victorino, Utley and Burrell catching fire simultaneously, or at least 3 of the 4. What are the odds?
I have read a whole bunch of quotes today that I think are revealing and that also concern me.
First, about the state of the team, from Manuel:
“I think the difference is that last year we were hot,” Charlie Manuel, the Phillies manager, said after yesterday’s loss. “And we were consistent. We could score more runs. And we had enough pitching to get through. But we were hot and playing good and very energetic and full of life and really got after it. Our team this year . . . “
Manuel paused. “If you remember, we were very resilient,” he said. “We could come right back at you. We still could do those things but at the same time not as much as last year.” (emphasis mine)
and from Myers: “We have to stop pressing so much,” said yesterday’s hard-luck starter, Brett Myers. “If we have fun, the wins will come.” “It’s like we’re trying to make up ground in one game instead of having fun in the game,” Myers said. “We have to have fun, not put pressure on ourselves, and win some ball games.”
Both of these guys are in the clubhouse every day and should have a pretty good read on the collective psyche of the team. To hear them say things like that tells me that we won’t be seeing any magic this year. While they might not be a defeated club yet, it seems as though they are at least deflated.
About the pitching….Pete, when we were talking yesterday about the rotation and having to pitch guys on short rest, you brought up Carrasco. Well, this quote from Amaro will tell you all you need to know about the thought processes of our front office:
Where is Carrasco?
One of the team’s best options for Sunday is in Venezuela.
Righthander Carlos Carrasco went 2-2 with a 1.79 ERA in six starts for Lehigh Valley after a promotion from Reading, where he appeared in 20 games (19 starts). But the Phillies sent him home after the season, because they had no plans to pitch him out of the bullpen and didn’t figure he would have a chance to start. The Phillies don’t regret that decision.
“We’re happy with the guys we have,” assistant general manager Ruben Amaro Jr. said. “If there’s a change to be made, we have the personnel to do that, I think.” (emphasis mine)
“Manuel said that Carrasco’s name came up in discussions throughout the season, but that he never formally requested Carrasco join the team Sept. 1. Carrasco is expected to pitch winter ball in Venezuela and will compete for a starting job next spring.”
Any more questions?
Continuing with the pitching and throwing guys on short rest, we have quotes from Moyer:
“I think for me, the 3 days’ rest, it really isn’t that big of an issue,” said Moyer (13-7, 3.64). “I’m here, it’s my job, it’s my responsibility. If I had my health, it’s all about preparation and doing what I think I need to do and going out and giving our team as many quality innings as I can. I talked to Charlie last week just giving him my vote of confidence if they, as in the staff and upstairs, were considering going to a four-man rotation at any point in time, that I thought I would be able to do it.”
I ask you, how can you not absolutely love this guy?
and from Myers:
“I’ll pitch tomorrow. I don’t care,” said Myers, who has only pitched on 3 days’ rest once in his career. “It doesn’t matter to me, if it gets us to the playoffs. Whatever it takes. If they ask me, then we’ll see. My arm usually bounces back pretty good. I felt pretty good [yesterday] after throwing 120 pitches vs. the Mets. If they ask me, I’m definitely going to take the ball anytime they ask me to do it.”
I have been critical of Myers this year and very relectant to accept that he has turned himself around. I still don’t know that I want to trust him for next year, but I am ecstatic to hear him say that. It also makes me feel like I’ve been too down on him. I love the mentality, as long as he controls it.
Conspicuously absent is any quote from Hamels on this subject! I know I have defended Hamels. I know that this is the first time in his career he will have made it through an entire season without an injury. I know he is leading the league in innings pitched. That said (and JJG is going to love this), if he truly wants to acheive his goals of winning 20 games, Cy Young awards, being considered the staff ace, etc…he has got to step up. If a head case like Myers and a 45 year old are stepping up, you have to be there as well. If you really want to be considered an ace you should be the first one to step up but, as long as he does, I’ll take it. This is where your identity is forged, where your reputation is made (both on your team and around the league), and where you show that you not only have what it takes but that you will also not hesitate to bring it when your team needs it.
Baseball people help me out, maybe this will make for some good baseball discussion…
Is this team suppose to be scratching and clawing to make the playoffs every season? Is that where their overall talent level is on this ball club?
Help the ignorant basketball junkie.
Hamels: He reminds me of old TV show ”77 Sunset Strip” – “Kookie, Kookie, lend me your comb.”
Dannie…The simple answer is yes. The Phils are what they are. At the risk of being cliche, baseball is a long season and you end up pretty much where you should. Things have a way of evening out. We started out hot and then cooled considerably. The Mets started out cold, but then heated up. At the end of the season both teams will end up where they should, which tells you about the level of talent you have on your club.
That is what is so frustrating about the Phils. We have been treading water for 8 years now. Our talent level has been good enough to get us in the high 80’s in wins each year. Whether or not we reach the playoffs depends on other teams finishing with less wins than than us, because us winning more doesn’t seem realistic.
My problem is that I tend to look at things straightforwardly (some may some simplistically). For example, my sons may tell me that they are A students. If they bring home B’s for the first couple quarters of the school year, I may give them the benefit of the doubt. Maybe they were sick or had a rotten teacher or had difficulty adjusting to the workload or whatever. But if they bring home B’s for the entire year, guess what? They are B students. It doesn’t matter what they tell me. It’s what they actually do that tells the tale.
This is how I feel about the Phillies. They tell us every year that they have put a great team together, that they have addressed their deficiencies, that they will be right in the mix, that they are playoff caliber, etc…but what they actually do tells the tale! There are always excuses. Injuries, sub-par seasons, etc…but every team deals with the same things every year to some extent. Like I said before, the Phils have been consistently in the high 80’s in wins for the last 8 years. No matter how much they continue telling me that they are an A team, that large body of evidence shows me that they are unequivocally a B team.
What I am looking for this off-season is an honest assessment of the team and it’s needs. I would also appreciate more openess and honesty ( a la Stefanski) going forward. It makes it much more difficult to be an avid fan when you can’t shake the feeling that you’re being lied to, or at least that there is a lot of stuff that is covered up.
Glad to see that you are now suffering along with the rest of us. Welcome to the club.
It’s only fitting that the end of the Phillies season is at the bat of a bum we signed, watched him steal money and then finally got rid of.
Two seasons from now, we will be eliminated from playoff contention as Adam Eaton throws a no-hitter against us or Geoff Jenkins hits an RBI double to win the game for the opposition.
Even that fem, Rod Barajas, lit us up with a grand slam earlier in the season.
Someone said it here earlier and it’s true. The Phillies are built to be exciting, but to go nowhere.
Great ride. No payoff.
At least until all the owners die and someone can buy up all the shares of the team from the kids scrambling around at the reading of the wills.
James…Adding insult to injury is the fact that the Phils are paying Helms’ $2.15 million salary for 2008.
bski: Phils only had 80 wins in 2002, along with an 85 and 3 86 win seasons. This year, only 79 so far. Wouldn’t characterize their 8 yr. run as a “high 80s” type; that glosses the facts. Middlin’ 80s, more like it. The Phillies’ loud promotional machinery may have made you forget.
Mets’ June (and continuing) upswing beginning - Manaya flies to LA, makes necessary move; Randolph replaced by Manuel. No coincidence.
Phillies are big boys now; no longer need a coddling/protective manager. Time to replace Manuel. Can’t help but think Leyland (or someone of his ilk), through earned clout and crusty demeanor, would’ve insisted on and gotten better fundamental play from a talented but sometimes light-headed crew.
Last night post-game, Manuel pulls a Rollins, says fans are sometimes “flat” and that it affects his players. Oh, the sorrow and the pity, and excuse-making! Surprised he went there.
ive always been a charlie supporter. but i do think its time for him to go.
we’re flat because we’ve seen the same crap since 1993. there’s your answer. now explain why you’ve been flat since JUNE
Pete – Oh I like Werth’s production as well, but I would have loved the ability to bring him in as the 4th OF (could have given Burrell more rest, never would have seen Geoff Jenkins in the lineup, etc). Plus, having Rowand would have given us the ability to trade Victorino this season for a pitcher.
Pete, You ran with that ball like Nick Eddy. Touchdown!
JJG...OK, so I gave the Phils a bit more credit than they deserve. Instead of them winning in the high 80’s and being a B team, we’ll go with middling 80’s and call them a C+ team.
I agree with you about Manuel as well. It’s bad enough that he actually thinks that, but he’s got to keep it to himself. I can’t believe he said it.
I think the writing is on the wall. No playoffs + New GM = New manager and coaching staff. If this does happen they have got to keep Lopes. What he has done for the running game over the last two seasons has been nothing short of spectacular.
From Myers…
“I’ll pitch tomorrow. I don’t care,” said Myers, who has only pitched on 3 days’ rest once in his career. “It doesn’t matter to me, if it gets us to the playoffs. Whatever it takes. If they ask me, then we’ll see. My arm usually bounces back pretty good. I felt pretty good [yesterday] after throwing 120 pitches vs. the Mets. If they ask me, I’m definitely going to take the ball anytime they ask me to do it.”
would love to see this out of Cole.
See if I can predict this game, just for fun:
First off the Mets won’t win (because they don’t play… ha…)
People have started to notice that Jamie Moyer’s been great this year, and that’s never a good sign for a Philly athlete. Plus, considering he held the other team scoreless last time means he probably gives up a couple tonight. I say he gives up 4 in 6 innings. Oh wait, Gabe Kapler’s not playing, so make that 3 runs in 6.
The Phils have more momentum than the Brewers despite the 1-2 against Florida. The Marlins are the biggest wild card in all of MLB, if you face them anything can happen. I don’t think the Phils lost any momentum from that series – they just entered the Twilight Zone otherwise known as 3 against Marlins, and now they’re back out, with the momentum they got from the Mets series still there with them. They’ll score runs tonight against Sheets, the Phils are never intimated by supposed “aces”.
Chase Utley will come up with chance to drive in some runs twice, but fail both times. Ryan Howard will clean up after him with a couple of RBIs.
This will feel like game 3 of the Colorado series (win or go home) to Victorino, he’ll be awake tonight, get two hits, one of which will be a homer.
I think J-Roll plays well tonight, scores a couple of runs. Werth comes up empty, but Dobbs and Ruiz do some damage
Moyer will hand off a 1-run lead to our bullpen, and they’ll actually hold the lead – I say their stretch of bad games ends tonight. Then Lidge closes it out for the win.
Just a couple tidbits from mlbtraderumors.com
Peter Abraham relays comments Hank Steinbrenner made to the AP today. Hank will review the entire organization and put together an advisory group for decision-making. Brian Cashman would still be in charge, but it sounds like too many cooks in the kitchen. Cashman probably will not want to stay if he loses autonomy. Speculation is that Cashman could consider the vacancies in Philadelphia or Seattle.
I’m looking under every rock for potential GM’s. Not that it matters a whit. Still, if Cashman and Hunsicker are in the mix we might have hope that an outside guy will get the job. Arbuckle might be ok, but I have no interest in Amaro. He just strikes me as a front office schill.
Next up:
Interesting fact…A.J. Burnett is second in MLB with 3286 pitches thrown (Sabathia jumped into the lead last night). Many of the ‘07 leaders in pitches thrown came down with injuries this year.
Let’s take a quick-and-dirty look at a simple stat, number of pitches thrown. Your 2007 leaders:
Carlos Zambrano (3689).
Dan Haren (3635).
Jake Peavy (3610).
Scott Kazmir (3609).
Aaron Harang (3590).
C.C. Sabathia (3581).
Gil Meche (3578).
Daniel Cabrera (3563).
Dontrelle Willis (3491).
Jeff Francis (3485).
Interesting list – the majority of these pitchers have missed time due to injury in 2008. Your ‘08 leaders:
A.J. Burnett (3286).
C.C. Sabathia (3267).
Matt Cain (3215).
Justin Verlander (3214).
Gil Meche (3150).
Tim Lincecum (3137).
Johan Santana (3135).
Roy Halladay (3130).
Ervin Santana (3129).
Cole Hamels (3095).
Sabathia and Meche have really tallied up the pitches, and C.C. has many more coming. Sabathia’s suitors both in real life and fantasy baseball should exercise caution. He will be going in the second or third round and definitely carries risk. It wouldn’t be surprising to see a few more of these guys go down next year.
I’m not the only one thinking this way, JJG. My kidney is banking on it.
Zack…Well done. You might have to make a prediction before every game now. At least until it doesn’t work anymore.
I actually liked the preseason moves and Rowand, though good in the clubhouse waited for a contract year to have a career year. He is what he is and Victorino is as good defensively, in my opinion. My biggest concern is never having enough amo, minor league prospects, to make the over the top move at the deadline to put us over the top. As a side note; Arbuckle, on M.Missanelli said Corasco was not thought of as an option by the organization to bring up at all this year; seems they didn!t feel he was ready.
Suede…This is the first time I’ve seen you on any of the baseball topics. Great to have you here. Keep checking in.
Whoever BSki is, he’s got it exactly right. This team is a 85-88 win team, each and every year, and have been so well before Charlie, so Charlie aint’ the problem. Fact is you have spend more to get above 90 wins consistantly.
Had the Phillies bought Johan Santana last winter, the Phillies would have the playoffs in the bag. Payroll would be thru the roof, but that is what it takes.
bski, Agree, Lopes has been a spectacular coach. His influence is readily evident on the TV screen and in results. Rollins, Utley, Victorino, Werth, Bourne – he’s helped them all big-time. And I’m sure his no BS, winning baseball mentality has permeated the rest of the dugout. (As player, is 9th in all-time MLB stolen base success rate: 83%.) A new regime might sacrifice him though for a friend in need. Hope he stays for awhile. Wonder if he wants another shot at managing?
Amaro. Please, NO, NO, A THOUSAND TIMES NO! Groomed company man, probably, by now, capable to an extent; don’t see or hear the originality or dynamic spark of a revolutionary GM - wouldn’t embarrass, but wouldn’t win, my take. No need to worry about him if cut loose (chance – slim and none, given
Phils’ family style). Penn Charter & Stanford & MLB experience – he just might be able to find another job…especially if he polishes Montgomery’s cordovan ‘wing tips’ one last time.
CC going strong, determined, has a precarious hold on a kidney. Has trained to earn ’4000 pitch season’ warranty.
Thanks Mike.
I have to say that I’m getting tired of “clarifications” of comments that are misunderstood by us fans. Makes me wonder if they are trying to make us understand how they really see things or if they are just backpedaling so they don’t catch boatloads of crap from us.
Todd Zolecki interviewed Charlie Manuel yesterday. I am going to post an extensive quote from him because it goes directly to what we are talking about.
Playoffs or bust, Charlie?
“Our ultimate goal is to win a World Series,” Manuel said. “That’s what we want. That’s what we set out to do. That’s what we’re trying to achieve. But to achieve that, you’ve got to get by the first step, and that is to get into the playoffs.”
“But if something happens and we don’t get in, that doesn’t mean nothing was learned from our season,” he said.
So, it wouldn’t be a step back?
“You don’t ever step back,” he said. “What the hell? The game is going to be played again next year. Don’t get me wrong. I’m not even looking toward next year. I’m looking toward tonight’s game.
“But to say that nothing good can come out of the season if you don’t win . . . totally a lost season? No. Because there would be a lot of good in the season. There would be a lot of good things.
“There would be some individual performances that definitely would set you up and give you a lot of positives about the following season. There would be things that would tell you what you have to improve on. It’s how your team gets better. Definitely, not entirely lost.” (emphasis mine)
I agree with this as far as it goes but the problem is that these things (promising individual performances, signs of where you need to improve, etc…) have been going on for years and we are not getting any better. So, in my mind, any season that ends short of the playoffs is a lost season specifically because we do not sufficiently address our needs and we do not get better.
JJG...Yeah, Lopes has got to stay. He can read pitchers like nobody’s business. Remarkable the impact a coach who knows what he is doing can have on the players.
Sabathia can lay no claim on my kidney until he makes it through the entire 2009 season with no arm injury, so I’m guaranteed to have it for a minimum of 13 months.
Peanuts Lowrey, George Myatt, Bobby Wine, John Vukovich – some other good coaches Phils have known.
bski, CC says no rush; scalpel has been mail-ordered from Malaysia, is on back-order from Tunisia.
jjg and bski -
when I started writing this blog, I could only hope that readers would become so dedicated that they would start wagering their vital organs. Bravo.
Pete, how in the world can the Phillies make the playoffs? BTW: The wild card is even tougher, so they have to catch the Mets.
Mets are playing .566 baseball and have 2 extra games to play
If they go (record) then (percent), the rest of the way (19 games) they wind up with this record:
11-8 .579 = 93-71 – this is what the Mets are on pace for
10-9 .526 = 92-72
9-10 .473 = 91-73
8-11 .421 = 90-74
I think a drop of .100 is the best we can hope for, so the Phillies have to win 91
Phillies are playing .544 baseball
If they go (record) then (percent), the rest of the way (17 games) they wind up with this record:
9-8 .529 = 89-75 – this is what the Phillies are on pace for
10-7 . 588 = 90-74
11-6 .647 = 91-73 – this is what we have to hope for
12-5 .700 = 92-72
13-4 .764 = 93-71 — needed if the Mets don’t slump
Both teams are on pace for the Phillies to end the season 4 games back, and for the Phillies to remain in that magical 85-89 win total they’ve been living at for 8 years.
For things to change the Phillies have to get red-hot, difficult… but impossible?
10-7 is possible, but is 11-6? certainly 13-4 is too much to ask.
Essentially the Mets HAVE to drop off by .100 points AND the Phillies HAVE to pick it up by .100 points.
I’m not holding my breath.
Pete...I’m the only one with anything on the line here. My kidney is depending on Sabathia missing at least 1 start in 2009 due to tightness, tendinitis, or whatever.
JJG is just sitting back and contacting black market organ dealers to turn a quick profit for himself in the event my commitment to my beliefs on over using pitchers proves foolhardy.
Pete, Thanks. Just more proof that Philly fans go to the mat for their positions!
bski, There’s nothing like a one-sided wager. Remember that, next time you get in a frenzy over an untested belief. Relax. For 13 months.
Mike…Nice work. The one thing that we need to consider is that Howard is now in “beast mode” as Iike to call it. If he can put up a September equal to August of 2006, he alone can take us a long way toward that impossible 13-4 mark. Add to that the fact that Rollins has really picked it up, and we are getting somewhere. If we can get a third guy to pick it up (Utley, Werth, Victorino, Burrell) I think it becomes a real possibility.
I am putting it all on the offense because I think the pitching will keep giving us what we have been getting from them all season. I think we will need consistent scoring to win the close, low scoring games along with a few big stick nights to cover for some subpar efforts by the staff.
I’m not saying we’ll get it. Just that Howard and Rollins are giving us hope. (I hate that word)
Schedule caution: needy Brewers next 3 days; trip to prideful, Bobby Cox Atlanta & usually-competitive Florida; wrap-up series with Nats, Phillies’ bugs. 10 wins in 15 will be tough to accomplish unless dormant hitters wake up. Even then, it’s the Mets’ to lose. Will the energies of Manuel & Santana prevent shrinkage this year?
to win the wild card we have to sweep the brewers, otherwise I think it is impossible
Mike…Agreed. Even if we sweep and tie the Brewers, it’s still a tough road. We will still need to play better than them, and the Astros and Cardinals, the rest of the way to lock it up. Catching the Mets really could be easier. (Damn, that Sunday game was a big swing)
Phils have played on rainier nights than last; seems they could’ve gotten it in. Guess they didn’t want to risk losing Hamels to an abbreviated start. With another Sunday doubleheader planned, series sweep odds have changed a little. Doubleheaders split more often than not.
We might actually pull this off. The Brewers are really sliding. We have scored 6, 7, & 7 against them so far. If Myers continues his 2nd half run, we should have enough offense to get it done.
We are in basically the same position as last week, 1 game out with the second game of a double header left to play. We couldn’t pull it off against the Mets last week, but I say this time we will.
If so, we will also pick up 1 1/2 games on the Mets today. Atlanta scored 5 runs in the top of the 9th and pulled out a win. A win tonight would bring us to within 1 game of the Mets (2 in the loss column).
The Mets bullpen should cost them a few more games, hopefully.Who gets the ball in the first playoff game WHEN we get there ? Is it cut and dried that it is Hamels and if not, how would HE handle it ?
Pete…Are we in store for WOW PART3?
Phillies are now 9-1 into their last 17 games. WOW. Talk about red hot. Looks now like they are just going to take care of business and keep winning their way to the division championship. To think they don’t have to hope and pray that somebody else collapses !