The Phillies are showing signs of coming out of the painful slump they’ve been in the last month or so. They are 9-4 in their last 13 games and have scored over 5 runs in 9 of those games (8-1) and over 7 in 7 of them (6-1).
2010: 40-33
2009: 39-34
2008: 42-31
2007: 38-35
Instead of Good News / Bad News (I feel it gets a little mundane when you do it in back-to-back series), I’m going to help Charlie Manuel out picking the NL All-Star team.
Let’s start with the likely starters based on the most recent vote. I’m going to assume that David Wright will pass Placido Polanco (as he should) and that Yadier Molina will hold off Brian McCann at catcher.
Starters
C- Yadier Molina, STL
1B – Albert Pujols, STL
2B – Chase Utley, PHI
3B – David Wright, NYM
SS – Hanley Ramirez, FLA
OF – Ryan Braun, MIL
OF – Andre Ethier, LAD
OF – Jason Heyward, ATL
OK, so Charlie doesn’t really have a choice on those, but he’s got 26 spots left to fill. Obviously there needs to be one player from each team. I’m going to select 14 pitchers and 12 additional hitters.
The first thing I would do, were I Charlie, would be to get the 1-player teams out of the way. There are 3 teams with under a .400 win% who shouldn’t have more than 1 player at the game: Pittsburgh, Arizona and Houston. Houston is pretty easy, as Roy Oswalt is clearly their best player this season. Pittsburgh doesn’t really have anyone to offer, but they do have one of the best (if the the best) late inning relievers in Evan Meek (44 IP, 1.02 ERA, 0.86 WHIP). For Arizona, it comes down to 2B Kelly Johnson and OF Justin Upton. Let’s see what we need later and pick one of those two.
The next step is to get the no-doubt guys out of the way. That list would look like this for me…
- Ubaldo Jimenez, COL
- Josh Johnson, FLA
- Roy Halladay, PHI
- Adrian Gonzalez, SDP
- Joey Votto, CIN
- Martin Prado, ATL
- Scott Rolen, CIN
- Ryan Zimmerman, WAS
- Troy Tulowitzki, COL
- Brian McCann, ATL
- Yovani Gallardo, MIL
- Adam Wainwright, STL
- Heath Bell, SDP
- Billy Wagner, ATL
With those 14 and the 10 from above, we only need 10 more players to round out the roster. We need 5 pitchers, a 2B, a SS and 3 OF. First, let’s see which of those AZ players we can place. Brandon Phillips of Cincinnati is really close to a no-doubt guy and he’s playing on a 1st place team. Kelly Johnson shouldn’t get in over him. Meanwhile, the NL OF crop is pretty weak, so I’m going to put Justin Upton in for Arizona. That leaves 5 pitchers (I want at least one more reliever), a SS and 2 OF. Also we have to keep in mind that the Cubs and Giants are the only teams without a representative yet.
I’m going to look at the 5 pitching spots first. There are so many guys out there having great years, there are definitely going to be snubs here. Let me start out by saying that Stephen Strasburg is on my team. Yes, he’s only made 4 starts, but they have arguably been the best first 4 starts in MLB history. He will have made 6 starts by the time of the game, and if you are Charlie Manuel, you want to win this game, and he’s definitely one of the best 14 pitchers in the NL. There are 13 pitchers with an ERA under 3 so far this year in the NL. 5 of them are already on my team. Since I have Strasburg already and need 1 more reliever, these 8 pitchers will vie for 3 spots.
- Jaime Garcia (7-4, 87.1 IP, 2.27 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 70K)
- Tim Hudson (7-3, 99.1 IP, 2.54 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 45K)
- Chris Carpenter (9-1, 109.2 IP, 2.63 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 95K)
- Mike Pelfrey (10-2, 99.2 IP, 2.71 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 63 K)
- Matt Cain (6-6, 102.2 IP, 2.72 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 70K)
- Clayton Richard (5-4, 95 IP, 2.75 ERA, 1.31 WHIP, 71K)
- Mat Latos (8-4, 91.2 IP, 2.85 ERA, 0.99 WHIP, 84K)
- Mike Leake (5-1, 89.1 IP, 2.92 ERA, 1.41 WHIP, 58K)
Right off the bat Garcia is out (not enough innings, too many Cardinals on the team already) and Richard and Leake are out (WHIP is too high, implies a lot of good luck). Latos is in, as that 0.99 WHIP is 2nd to only Josh Johnson (and better than Ubaldo) and the 1st place Padres should have a 3rd player. Pelfrey is in because he’s been a savior for the Mets so far, and they only have 1 player in at this point. The final spot has to go to Cain, Carpenter or Hudson. Cain would be the easy choice since the Giants need a rep, but they have a good option for a remaining position player as well. Just looking at the numbers, you have to take Carpenter, by the smallest of margins.
This leaves only a reliever, a back-up SS and 2 OF for the roster.
The back-up SS goes to Juan Uribe of the Giants, who has easily been the 3rd best SS in the NL this year.
At reliever, we bypass some deserving closers (Jonathan Broxton, for instance) to get a Cub on the roster. Carlos Marmol might be wild, but his obcene 16.68 K/9 rate would be the best mark in MLB history by far (14.98 by Eric Gagne) and his 4.5 H/9 rate would be the 4th best in MLB history.
Only 2 spots left, both for outfielders. Colby Rasmus should be one, as he leads NL OF in OPS and is 2nd in HR and 5th in runs scored. The final spot comes down to Jayson Werth, Corey Hart, Josh Willingham and Alfonso Soriano. It’s really a toss-up, but Werth gets the nod because of his excellent defense and the fact the Brewers, Nats and Cubs haven’t played well enough to deserve another player on the roster.
So that’s it, here is my final NL All-Star roster (sorted by team), for Charlie Manuel’s approval:
Tough ommissions: Tim Hudson, Matt Cain, Jonathan Broxton, Corey Hart, among others
Let me know what you think in the comments…
Series Preview: Phillies at Cincinnati Reds
The Reds have been one of the biggest surprises in baseball this year. For a team to surprise, a couple things need to happen that no one really expected. For the Reds, that has been the resurgence of Scott Rolen and the emergence of rookie pitcher Mike Leake. They get by mostly on hitting, they rank 5th in the MLB in BA and HR and have a deep line-up that features likely all-stars Rolen, Votto and Phillips and above-average contributors in Jay Bruce, Jonny Gomes and Ramon Hernandez.
Probables
Monday (7:10): Kendrick vs. Johnny Cueto (7-2, 3.97 ERA)
Tuesday (7:10): Blanton vs. Mike Leake (5-1, 2.92 ERA)
Wednesday (12:35): Halladay vs. Aaron Harang (6-7, 5.04 ERA)
3 Questions for the Series
- Can Scott Rolen finish his career strong and be a real HOF candidate (more below)?
- Will Mike Leake’s good luck (1.41 WHIP, 2.92 ERA) turn?
- When we will see a fully healthy line-up again?
Series Prediction
I think we will win 2 of 3, splitting the first 2 and winning Halladay’s start. I did want to take a moment to talk about Scott Rolen. I don’t really think about Rolen as a HOF candidate, but his numbers show that he should be probably be considered.
Here’s a quick argument for Rolen as a HOFer.
- Rolen’s next HR will be his 300th. He needs only 37 more doubles for 500 for his career. Should he get to 300/500, he would join George Brett as the only 3B to reach both numbers.
- His .870 career OPS is 5th all-time among 3B with 1,000+ games (Chipper, Schmidt, Eddie Matthews, non-HOFer Al Rosen).
- Only Brooks Robinson (16) and Mike Schmidt (10) have more Gold Gloves than Rolen at 3B (7).
He’s a borderline candidate and if he gets in, I would think it would be more for his defense than anything else, but if Omar Vizquel ever gets in, Rolen should as well.
i have not done the research but why not put McCutchen in instead of Meek and not even consider Dickey from the mets?
No Ry Ho? I know the HR totals are down but I think he is having a pretty solid year. Given that, there is a log jam at 1st base.
2 of 3 is a pretty generous prediction. I see us winning the Halladay start, and getting completely confused by Leake in the rubber match. Its just the phillies M.O. against lefties they never seen before.
Also Pete, what are your thoughts on Jay Bruce. I myself see him (right now in his career anyway, hes still young) as kind of like a better Pat Burrell. Something about him just reminds me about Pat the Bat for some reason. I like Bruce a lot, (hes on my Fantasy team…) I bought into him during his miracle call up when he batted .700.
another note, Pete how much better do you think this team would be if Edison Volquez was anchoring the rotation? I mean they’re in 1st place now, if they had Volquez and his tremendous stuff, the Reds would be even scarier then they already are.
philly-
mccutchen was the other option for the Pirates, and very well may be the guy who goes. I picked Meek because he his standing among middle relievers (this year) is better than McCutchen’s among NL OFs.
Angelo,
I doubt Ry Ho gets a sniff this year. His ranks among NL 1B…
HR (t-5th), RBI (2nd), BA (6th), OBP (t-9th), SLG% (6th), OPS (7th).
My comparison of Bruce to Burrell would be that they were both tremendously hyped and both (so far for Bruce) were unable to live up to that hype. No offense to Bruce, who is a nice player, but after the 2007 season he was the #1 overall prospect in baseball ahead of Evan Longoria, Clayton Kershaw, Clay Buchholz, Colby Rasmus, Andrew McCuthchen, David Price, Jacoby Ellsbury, Rick Porcello and on and on and on. People though he could hit .330 while hitting 35+ HR. He’s been somewhat of a disappointment so far.
Volquez is on his way back. He’s in the minors right now. But it’s impossible to tell how he will be when he gets back, chances are not quite like he was before. See Francisco Liriano and Fausto Carmona of last year for comparison.
philly -
forgot to comment on Dickey. Too many good pitchers this year to let him in with 46 IP. Strasburg is a once-in-a-decade exception because of the historical nature of his start.
By the time you read this, it will be old news, but Heyward is out til after the break. Badly bruised left thumb, I believe it is.
If Strasburg makes the team, somebody gets screwed. That’s not to say he shouldn’t. It’s a fact, considering his short career. The first name that comes to mind is Carlos Silva.
Frankly, I wanna win the damned game. I don’t like the AL, I’m embarrassed by the complete reversal of trend from when I was a kid, and home field could be quite relavant to rooting interests. I guess that puts me with a leaning toward he makes it.
Pete,
You really had to post your #3 question, eh?
Utley can officially carry the moniker as “injury-prone.” In fact, that makes two of our stars – Utley and Rollins – injury-prone. Very frustrating as the team was just starting to get its legs. That said, if he is out 2-8 weeks, they need to move on and not brode about it like I sensed they did while Jimmy was out. We are getting into the season enough that they can’t wade through and just wait till utley gets healthy to “turn it on.”
I am OK leaving Howard off the All-star team; although he is having a very fine year.
Watched the Braves/Nats game last night. Strasburg looked really good until his fielders started playing pinball with the baseball. What really impresses me with him is his poise. He started off a bit wild and just started mowing them down in the middle innings. When he got in a jam in the 7th he threw the double-play ball he needed, but it was booted. That was a game that the Nats should have won. Braves do not look like they have much. Their defense and hitting is very suspect. Clearly they are being carried by their pitching. Chipper and Glaus at the corners is pretty brutal for defense. They can no longer move. Again, I will be shocked if the Braves win this division, or even end the year within 3 games of the lead.
Strasburg probably steals his spot but this kid Tyler Clippard for the Nats was/is having a pretty decent year. He lit the Phil’s up a few times in those early games against the Nationals.
48 IP…2.25 ERA…53 Strikeouts/21 walks…16 holds and 8 wins.
At some point he was leading relievers in decisions. And he’s only given up 3 home runs. I don’t know if those are all-star middle relief numbers, but they seem pretty good to me.
Also, if i was giving a spot to a Pirates player, McCutchen is the definite pick. The dude has so much speed.
I think it’s awesome that Charlie actually wants to win this game so that the Phillies have home field in the Series. He truly sees it as a must win if we have a chance against the Yankees (assuming Boston/Minny/Tampa can’t step up).
This all reminds me of the Eagles and their multiple trips to the NFC Championship. At that time, there was something surreal about them being perrennial contenders, even if they came up short. I’m beginning to feel that way about the Phil’s.
So Keith Law just re-did his top-25 prospects, taking out all the kids who have been called up (Strasburg, Heyward, Posey, Santana, Alvarez, Smoak, etc…).
Guess who he has as the #1 prospect in all of baseball? Domonic Brown!
1. Domonic Brown, OF, Philadelphia. Is there anything he can’t do? He’s destroying everything in his path in Double-A and is probably just some defensive refinements away from being big league ready. I don’t think he’s next off the list to the big leagues, but withRaul Ibanez providing below-average offense and defense in left, I’d have to think the Phils are looking at Brown for a second-half callup. Previous ranking: No. 7
And making an appearance at #22…
22. Jarred Cosart, RHP, Philadelphia. One of the best fastballs of any starter in the minors, carving through the Sally League in his first full season in pro ball. Previous ranking: NR
Is is just me, but I have VERY little confidence that this team has the ability to come back this year? Down a pair or more, they have little, particularly in the late innings. There us no life; they seem dead. This is not the team of 2007-9.
Matthews made an interesting comment around the fifth or sixth inning last night, as Cueto kept retiring batters. It was to the effect that the Phillies had “missed their chance”.
I said early in the year that I wondered if they needed a year to catch their breath. This core has been thru 3 grueling years of comebacks and high-emotion ball. If they would happen to fall short that is what I would blame it on. They still have the best talent in the NL by a wide margin, when healthy. I still have little concern they will miss the playoff – still around 90% sure they make it – if I had to quantify it. Even if Utley is out for an extended period I am not sure they miss him that much with the bat he has been carrying lately – maybe his knee heals also and he can provide a good last 2 months for the stretch run.
Although this annual picking of “All Stars” can be fun, it can get a bit tedious as well. What are the criteria exactly: the past three months; the last year; recognized past excellence? With the advent of the game now having post-season meaning, should the picks have to represent only the best chance to win? And how do the fans’ choices play into this (perhaps some of them play only the first inning.) A game designed, in the age of radio, as a chance to see the players the fans wanted to see, has become a strategic choice for any manager who has pretensions or better of winning it all in October (November.)
Another thing. As I look over this list, particularly in the context that winning this thing has importance, I notice a familiar name who is absent: Tim Lincecum. His last start might have been terrible, his velocity down a bit, but he IS still a formidable pitcher, one I think Charlie would love to have on this team.
Regarding my last post: statistics are flat numbers. Though they reveal (usually) much more than they obscure, and give admittedly a very useful metric, they ARE a snapshot. They do lack the blood and guts factor. While some players have better this number or that, and crunching can have value (as well as be fun), there are few who would rather face say Pelfrey than Lincecum. And while some may not put him in with the “no-doubt” guys (I would), Lincecum is certainly head and shoulders ( with the exception of perhaps Carpenter) ahead of virtually anyone on the 1-8 pitcher’s list. Ask yourself this question. Which pitcher would you least like to see face the Phillies in any game. I am sure that most would have “the Freak” near the top of any list
Polly and Utley to the DL. Great.
its that kinda year Pete.
i still think we pull it off and win the division.
so…. what the hell is the lineup gonna look like tonight pete?
1.Victorino
2. Valdez
3. Rollins
4. Howard
5. Werth
6.Ibanez
7.Schnieder
8.Castro
9.Halladay
???Maybe you put Werth at 3?
Could we play a series when are team is at full health.
at this rate were going to need to get Dombro (Dom Brown) up here soon. If he really is the #1 prospect in all of baseball. then bringing him up for a half a season like they did with Howard back in 05 would be worth it. I can still remember when they brought Howard up. he Dominated for that half a season 22hr’s and 70 + ribbies.
Plain and simple, the club has its work cut out for themselves now. And you can breakdown any facet of Chase or PP’s game and surmise how it will be missed. To me, there is one thing that stands out above all.
The possibility of pressing taking more than just those 2 out of the lineup. Although no explanation is required, if RyHo or Werth feel the need to take it upon themselves to counter the loss of these 2, and that’s even with Chase having a less than Chasian year, chances increase of a slump. Something we can ill afford.
Mastering the focus of not swinging for 2 run homers with the bases empty is hard enough, let alone in a situation like this.
If Angelo’s lineup is used, and it’s sensible, I’ve still seen worse lineups. But it’s not going to smash any records.
This provides an opportunity for JRoll to show exempliary leadership skills to pull the club through this challenging time.
Regarding Jose’s comment on an inability to comeback, stats should bear out a strong disimilarity to last year and probably the year before on this club’s ability to do so. Whether its because the club is lifeless, I doubt it. That’s just the most readily available reason. Part of it could be better pitching. Part of it might be pressing. Part of it might be baseball itself. I’m not in the clubhouse, or in their minds, but I don’t subscribe to that stuff.
So we’ll see how it goes, and see if we can pull it off. It’s not like Halladay and Hamels collided shagging flies and shared an ambulance to the emergency room. Close, maybe, but not quite.
Angelo: you might have a point there, if I am RAJ, I would have been calling up Dom Brown after the break. forget not rushing his development, this team needs help. but as fate would have it, all our injuries so far have been restricted to the infield. well hello Castro, Valdez dream team again.
kinda envy the flexibility of AL lineups now.
I’d like to thank whoever made a steroid shipment to Wilson Valdez, keep up the good work….
I doubt they would have brought up Brown had an outfielder gone down. They are using the kid gloves with him and I don’t really blame them. The jump from AAA to the majors is HHUUUGGGGEEEE. Guys like Alex Gordon and Jake Fox are good examples of guys recently who have raked in AAA and not done much in the majors. I think John Mayberry would be the first guy brought up.
3 straight decent starts by Blanton…
21.1 IP, 9 ER (3.79 ERA, 1.22 WHIP)
Might need the pitching to step up while we’ve got so many guys out.
I honest to God can’t sit here and keep complaining about Brad Lidge as a closer for the 2nd straight year. To give up 3 runs with 2 outs is just not acceptable. We have a completely acceptable replacement in Jose Contreras. I’m so furious right now.
u r fuckin kiddin me!!
its ok, we need to pad our extra innings wins column. I am not as furious as pete is because i believe we are gonna pull this one oout.
If Raul grounds into a double play here, I might actually murder someone
why they aren’t bunting with him or bringing in Francisco is beyond me
CB Buckner is a HORRIBLE ump, by the way
Is it me or is this Ump calling a lot of low strikes? every low pitch is a fucking strike?!?!?
GREAT job Raul! 0-2 count against a tough lefty!
Wheeler and McCarthy will figure out the whole “the ball hit the wall” thing at some point.
Well, that bomb by Ibanez followed by a pinch hit by Francisco was unexpected.
I sure hope Contreras pitches the 10th.
they would have to change the rules for that KB – he pitched in the 8th.
If Raul grounds into a double play here, I might actually murder someone>>
Wish I’d seen that. I’d have rooted for that and watched you get off for justifiable homicide for whacking Lidge, and we’d have been rid of him.
Lidge stands to get the win. Unreal.
Didn’t catch that. But it’d be a good rule change.
Buckner is special with his strike zone. Reds manager should have lost it too when Herrera was getting balls galore.
Phils resiliency will end up overshadowing Lidge (meltdown? not sure what you call that) kerfuffle. this is where having Charlie Manuel as a manager sucks. we will probably get the ‘lidge is my closer’ line and we get prepared for another wild October.
meen…
yeah, Herrera threw a couple right down the middle for balls.
Contreras should be the closer, this has been clear for AWHILE.
non-Phillies note: was perusing box scores and noticed Jim Thome sporting a .917 OPS. Only Werth has a higher OPS on the Phillies. Dude is the man.
Well, I hate to say I told you so, but when the ? was posed if the Phils’d make the playoffs recently, Pete said we have no closer.
And I disagreed.
He is just unbelievable.
at this point i’d be ok with having Madson as my closer.
anything but the Lidge show. are 1-2-3 innings a thing of the past. even Mitch Williams wasnt this entertaining.
Chuck; give Contreras a chance. even Romero too.
its funny, we won but I am so pissed right now, I am considering not watching the final game tomorrow.
hope Halladay gives me a reason to smile.
I am considering not watching the final game tomorrow.>>
Yeah, right, jkay.
Anyone that watched the 10th after that nightmare will be there tomorrow. But I understand what you’re saying.
Ty Wigginton would be a great pick-up for this team. He can play 3B and 2B and is a quality RH bat. At 32, he wouldn’t cost too much either.
OK, after reading about Happ’s latest rehab outing last night————100 pitches, two runs, six hits, four walks in four-plus innings, allowing the leadoff batter to reach base in four innings and surrendering a solo home run————I must say that I am still concerned about him.
Based on what he himself is saying————
“I’ve had enough outings where I feel like I should be knocking some of the rust off, but today I was anxious to throw strike one and I never really did it,” Happ said. “I threw one of my best bullpen [sessions] that I have in the last couple years. Believe it or not, sometimes it’s a bad sign. I went out there and I wasn’t as sharp as I like.
“I feel like I can correct it. I felt like my arm speed was better and I felt like the ball was coming out better. I was rushing myself a little and probably a little overanxious.”
“I felt normal out there health-wise,” he said. “I didn’t get ahead in the count and I threw a lot of pitches, but I felt real good.”
“I’m ready, man,”
————it is obvious that Happ doesn’t share my concerns to the slightest degree.
It might just be me but I can’t shake the feeling that Happ’s quotes were lifted directly from Brad Lidge’s “Big Book Of Disconnect.”
Just saw that both Utley and Polanco are heading to New York to get a second opinion from other specialists tomorrow.
Can’t be good in either case then.
gotta capitalize on this first inning opportunity.
just a horrible strike call on 1-1 to Rollins. Charlie might get thrown out today too.
Jimmy took 5 pitches out of the strike zone in that AB yet struck out. Hopefully the LARGE plate works for Halladay too.
No sense hitting a HR anymore unless it’s a 3-run shot, huh?
Dane Sardinha!!!!
Just did some quick research on him – didn’t realize he was from Hawaii.
So we’ve got Valdez, Schneider and Sardinha carrying the load with Utley, Polanco and Ruiz out. Paging Howard and Werth?
In “achieving” his 30th ejection last night, Charlie Manuel climbed one step closer to Gene Mauch. The Little General charmed his way to 43 career “outtaheres.” Bobby Cox (143), John McGraw (117), Earl
Weaver (97) and Leo Durocher (95) head a distinguished ML list of umpire-antagonizing managers.
I was just going to say something about the surprising (and much needed) production we’ve been getting from the back-ups (and the back-ups to the back-ups) but you beat me to it, Pete.
nice defense, Howard
Howard didn’t bend at the waist. Casual effort.
He only makes $154,320.98 per game. You expect sweat?
that was an amazing HR by Votto – he’s a star in the making
On the radio, LA said the pitch was off the plate inside and down—between the ankles and the knees. Gotta tip your cap on that one.
Last pitch to Votto was not a strike, except in the books.
LA agrees with you, jjg. He said Halladay got a break on the call.
Werth’s misplay aside, Halladay has gotten hit a little bit today. To his credit he’s been able to pitch out of some trouble.
Let’s hope we can get to Rhodes again today. (He must have thought he was still pitching for us, not against us last night.)
It’s hard to squat with a chest protector and mask on and call balls and strikes under a bright sun, especially when pitches are low and dance like balsa wood. I wonder why people become umpires.
well, there goes that game…
I wasn’t looking at the TV screen. Heard the pop. Knew Bruce’s hit was trouble. Got all of that one.
can’t lost Harang vs. Halladay
What was I just saying about Halladay get hit around today? 5th time this season he’s allowed 10 or more hits. He also set a new season and career high with 13 hits allowed today.
Still only down 1 run though, so it’s certainly still a winnable game.
That’s a tough loss, right there.
bski, Halladay has looked fairly ordinary of late, been givin’ up a lot of hits. Seems to have lost a little of the untouchable aura since perfect game. Maybe he likes cooler weather.
I thought he would cruise today with early 3-0 lead.
Yeah, the greatness watch took another hit today and has really been taking on water lately.
I know I was not alone in hoping to see all of the 25-win—microscopic ERA—dominant run through the NL—lock for the Cy Young preseason predictions come true.
gottta hand it to the Reds, they are legit. no point in feeling soire. move on to Pittsburgh and then crucial Braves series.
b.ski: re: Happ – every player believes in himself. why not? what they end up doing on the field is a separate conversation entirely.
June 30: Jamie Moyer has a better W-L record than Roy Halladay.
Colby Rasmus has more HRs than Ryan Howard.
Baseball: full of surprises, every year.
I know I was not alone in hoping to see all of the 25-win—microscopic ERA—dominant run through the NL—lock for the Cy Young preseason predictions come true.>>
On the one hand, his first 16 decisions have come in a time frame what is secondary to the big late season stage they got him for.
But unfortunately, every game he pitches has been so important, be it because of slump, injuries, etc. It’s a lot of pressure to pitch under weeks in a row.
I’m sure he’ll still make the all star team, but the last thing you’d have expected was for that to even possibly be debatable.
True enough, jkay. And really that’s the way it should be. I mean, if you don’t believe in yourself, you are going nowhere.
As for that separate conversation, for a guy who feels normal health-wise, as Happ says he does, The results on the field are lacking enough to have me question it.
Even if he is 100% healthy, allowing 10 of the 22 hitters you face to reach base (in addition to what he’s done in his previous rehab starts) is enough to refute his assertion that he’s ready to get back into our rotation.
Let’s hope he is correct that it is just rust he needs to knock off.
I’m sure he’ll still make the all star team, but the last thing you’d have expected was for that to even possibly be debatable.
I’m with you there, Ken. As jjg pointed out, right now we have to hope that Halladay will keep pace with Moyer. Difficult to get your mind around that.
his first 16 decisions have come in a time frame what is secondary to the big late season stage they got him for.
We might have gotten Halladay for the postseason but we need to get there first, which means that this time frame is no longer secondary. Didn’t expect this to be the case either.
IMO, while 7 losses for Halladay is a surprise, the reason he has those, and the reason we lost today was the offense.
Aaron Harang sucks and all we could muster was a HR by Dane frickin’ Sardinha.
Rollins/Howard/Werth/Ibanez: 2 for 16, 0 BB, 0 RBI.
Halladay had a 2.79 ERA last year in the AL East, I can’t find it, but I remember doing a quick equation to guesstimate his ERA this year: 2009 AL East Runs Scored / 2009 NL East Runs Scored = 2009 ERA / 2010 Projected ERA. It came out to something very close to where he is right now (2.43).
His real value is the IP. He’s on pace for a ridiculous 277 IP.
can we just say it and not beat around the bush? Halladay has been a bit of a dissappointment….there, I said it. A true ace needs to put todays game in the win column. 3-0 lead, team on the ropes with injuries. Gotta shut the door.
I think there is a slight overkill to blame the offense for Doc’s year in entirety.
Fact is, he did have a 3-0 lead today.
He’s had some starts this year that were short of terrific. Pittsburgh (of all teams), Bosox, Yanks, today come to mind.
He pitched better in the first half of last year. At the time, I assumed it had something to do with the trade rumor persistence, and disappointment of not moving to a playoff contender.
Matybe some of it has to do with not only this year’s workload, but several years in a row of well over 200 innings.
Maybe there’s a common denominator between Mark Buehrle’s drop after his perfect streak and Doc’s less than great performance since his.
I suspect that if you gave Doc truth serum, and rules that he could assess his year applying blame to others if that’s how he felt, he’d still stay off that track.
In the end, my biggest concern with him is as much as I hate defending pitch counts, I wonder if that has more to do with any sign he’s shown of human performance, or victim of run support where he still could have fared better.
we have to hope that Halladay will keep pace with Moyer. Difficult to get your mind around that.>>
What you have to hope for is that Moyer keeps pace with Moyer. Let’s be realistic.
Reading everyone’s reaction is interesting. It’s funny how one can see more or less the same thing (a loss like today’s) differently depending on how your looking at it at that particular time.
Many times over the years I have felt like Pete does today, that the lack of offense cost us the win. Today though, while admitting that the offense was lacking, I feel more like phillyfan. Halladay is an ace and we needed him to hold that 3-0 lead. He didn’t. Instead he gave up a career high 13 hits and a bunch of late runs. It happens.
While I’m not having a tizzy and worrying about Halladay going in the tank, I have to say I am a bit disappointed. I don’t know, maybe the (my) expectations are too high, although Halladay has built up the well-deserved reputation upon which these expectations rest. He’s got 18 more starts to make (plus the postseason), so there is a long way to go before we will assess his first season in Philly. Just didn’t expect to see some of what I have so far is all.
That Halladay/Moyer comment was tongue-in-cheek, Ken.
Pete,
Is there any reason at all to think that Hank Blalock might be a fit here?
Mark Prior will throw for a bunch orf clubs tomorrow. I assume the Phils will be in attendance. I suspect this winds up a Kris Benson type story.
Both Blalock and Prior are 29. As am I. But I’m in my prime.
That Halladay/Moyer comment was tongue-in-cheek>>
clarification acknowledged.
OK, after talking about Halladay getting knocked around yesterday I got curious and decided to do some checking.
In 2008 Halladay had a WHIP of 1.053, an ERA of 2.78, a SO/BB ratio of 5.28, and allowed two 10-hit games (along with four 9-hit and five 8-hit) in 33 starts.
In 2009, he had a WHIP of 1.126, an ERA of 2.79, a SO/BB of 5.94, and allowed one 12-hit, two 11-hit, three 10-hit (along with four 9-hit and six 8-hit) games in 32 starts.
His 2010 numbers are a WHIP of 1.108, an ERA of 2.42, a SO/BB of 6.59, and one 13-hit, one 11-hit, three 10-hit (one 9-hit and three 8-hit) games in 17 starts.
So, Halladay’s WHIP is right in line with and his ERA and SO/BB are better than his past couple seasons, tracking more closely with 2009.
I mentioned expectations yesterday, specifically mine. I guess the idea of Halladay being a shut down pitcher did not jibe with what I’ve been seeing from him of late. I mean, I know even shut down pitchers get hit around here and there. Also, the guy has a WHIP just a bit over 1. Since he doesn’t walk many that accounts for the just a bit over part, making it into a small w as in wHIP. Point being that his WHIP is almost entirely due to his hits allowed. Following logically then, we are left with Halladay giving up basically 1 hit per IP, meaning if he goes 8 innings per start (like he has been this year) he is going to give up 8 hits per start on average.
I apologize if all of that comes across as somewhat simple and/or elementary (duh?). However, it did help me to see the forest for the trees, as it were.
That said, I still have a level of concern because in 2009 Halladay had 5 games in which he allowed 10 hits or more over a span of 32 starts, while this year he has already matched that in only 17 starts. We’ll have to see how it plays out the rest of the way though. Also, even though I feel that I now have a little better understanding of what he has done over the past couple seasons, which in turn informs my expectations going forward, it still doesn’t change how I feel about yesterday’s game.
Seeing an uptick in Phillies-related stuff on mlbtraderumors, understandably so.
With all the uncertainty due to injuries, the continuing desire to improve the club (and keep up with or stay ahead of any moves the Braves and Mets make), and deciding how to proceed with Werth, Amaro should have himself a very busy July.
Curious to see what has been determined to be expendable (money/prospects) and what he is able to do with it.
From David Murphy:
Chase Utley will need surgery on his thumb and could miss 5-6 weeks, according to a report from Peter Gammons, of the MLB Network.
Looks like Amaro’s first order of business will be finding a replacement (after the other shoe drops and we find out about Polanco later today of course).
Whenever I read about Cliff Lee, I see a reference to the value of draft picks if he leaves this off-season. Isn’t it being taken for granted that you’d get a first round and sandwich pick? If they yankees sign him and crawford, for instance, then there’s a chance you’d only get a sandwich and the yankees 2nd round pick…that’s a lot different than getting a top 20 pick.
Klaw(1:33 PM)
The Jays tried this with Burnett and got a third-rounder. So yeah, don’t take that first-rounder for granted.