Backtracking (A Little) on Ibanez

I’ve gone through a range of emotions in the short time since the Phillies signed Raul Ibanez, and I think I’ve finally decided how I feel about it. 

At first, as evidenced by my original post, I was happy with the signing. I thought (and still think) that Ibanez is a slight upgrade offensively and much better than a potential Juan Rivera/Greg Dobbs platoon. However, after reading many articles on him, and doing a little more research into the numbers, I’m not sure this was the best move, strategy-wise, for the Phillies. Here’s why:

Why not sign Burrell to the same deal and save the draft pick?

My analysis yesterday showed that Ibanez was slightly better offensively than Burrell. In the interest of getting the post up,  I hadn’t research his defense and baserunning. I assumed that he would be a big upgrade in these 2 areas, but it looks as though he won’t be. By many metrics, we replaced the worst outfielder in the league (Burrell) with the 2nd worst (Ibanez). And, Ibanez does not have the arm Burrell has. So, in terms of offensive production and defensive skill, we essentially have the same player we had before. This would be fine, if he wasn’t 5 years older than Burrell and cost us a first round pick to sign. All things being equal, I would have rather signed the younger, and right handed, Burrell to this deal and kept the pick. 

Ibanez’s numbers against lefties last year might have been a mirage

I noted in the first post that Ibanez was actually better against lefties last season, which was true, but some of it might have been luck. There is a stat called BABIP, which stands for Batting Average on Balls in Play. This stat is used to identify lucky, or fluke seasons. If it is high, you are getting more hits than you probably should (bloop singles, half swings, etc…) and if it is low you are getting less hits than you should (line-drives right at OFs, diving catches, etc…). Last year, Ibanez had a high BABIP against left handed pitchers inferring that he benefited by some lucky hits. I wouldn’t expect him to hit as well as he did against them in 2009. I do think that having Utley, Howard and Ibanez in a row will be a problem, but that can easily be fixed by throwing Werth or Victorino in the 5-hole. 

The third year of the contract might be a disaster

I was hoping that the contract would end up being a 2-year deal with a team option for a 3rd, but I’m guessing that isn’t the case. It looks like the structure of the deal is going to end up being a $2 mill bonus, $6.5 for the first year and $11.5 for the next two. I can’t imagine Ibanez being worth $11.5 million as he turns 39. And we know how much Philly fans love people not playing up to their contracts. I certainly hope I’m wrong on that one, but it’s a risk. 

Why not spend the money on pitching?

This could obviously change, but I’m thinking that the Ibanez signing, coupled with the potential 2 year, $15 million deal for Moyer (being reported by Jon Heyman as getting close) might bring an end to the big moves for us. While I wasn’t a fan of the idea of putting a platoon in LF, I would have been OK with it if we had brought in Derek Lowe to the rotation. This move has not really improved the team over last year, it’s just kept us flat. Bringing in Lowe, despite the platoon in the OF, would have improved the team and been a better use of the money. They still could sign Lowe, and if they do, it will change my view of this Ibanez deal. 

OK, well I’m glad I got that out of my system. I’m not down on Ibanez as a player, and I’m excited to see what he can do. I’m also not as down on the move as many national columnists are (you’d think that the Phillies had taken to killing puppies based on the tone of Keith Law’s review). But, given the money spent, the draft pick lost, and the similarities to Burrell, this wasn’t the shrewdest move that Amaro could have made to start off his career as GM.

December 13, 2008