Everyone is high off the Eagles big win over the Giants. And the Sixers are finally starting to give their fans something to get excited about. Today felt really slow and we have to wait until Wednesday for the high anticipated match up with the Trailblazers I figured I’d bring back the Brotherly Link Love posts. I haven’t done one of these in a while and really need to get back to it a bit more. I think it’s important to recognize and discuss other people’s opinions outside of this blog and link up my fellow bloggers. So here we go.
Tom Moore’s Sixers blog has a new location and some good information and quotes from Brand. First off Brand is on track to return from his dislocated shoulder on schedule. He went down on December 18th and the word out of the Sixers was 1-month. Well he was back on the court scrimmaging with full contact today and could make his return as early as this week, but more likely early next week according to Tom.
Also, Brand made it clear what he is all about – winning. Suggesting that he would initially come off the bench when he returns if that is what’s best for the team.
Who You Got: Brandon Roy/Lamarcus Aldridge or Andre Iguodala/Elton Brand?
That was the question and ongoing debate in the comment section over at the Depressed Fan‘s last post on the Sixers. It’s timely since the Sixers will face those two players on Wednesday.
Brian (author of the Depressed Fan) has this to say:
Brandon Roy is the best player on the Blazers and given the choice between Roy/Aldridge and Iggy/Brand, I’d take Iggy/Brand without blinking.
Assume that we are talking real time factoring in all players current age and career arc.
My initial response is there as well as Brian, as he always does, doing his homework and providing some shooting/scoring statistics for Iguodala and Roy. Here are a couple more advanced stats that try to give an all-encompassing view of a player in terms of performance and their contribution to team wins:
- Career PER (average is 15): Iguodala – 16.6 / Roy – 20
- Career Estimated Wins Produced per 48 minutes (average is 0.100): Iguodala – 0.182 / Roy – 0.184
I the numbers say the players are nearly equal. I personally think Roy is a more versatile offensive player with a killer instinct I have yet to see consistently from Iguodala.
Meaning although their scoring efficiency numbers are close I prefer Roy because he is a better three point shooter, a better post up player and I think he is consistently better off the bounce as well. Whereas Iguodala is an efficient scorer because his game is rather simple (not a horrible thing by the way). He scores on layups/dunks and to a lesser degree mid-range jumpers. In tough playoff series I think that makes him easier to stop compared to Roy – but time will tell on this point for both players. I also think Roy is a stronger player in end game situations. And ultimately I think he can be (if he isn’t already) a number 1 caliber player. And you all know how I feel about the necessity of having that guy to be a real contender.
So I pose the same question to you guys: Which duo do you take? And more importantly – WHY?
Jordan over at Liberty Ballers posed that question but the bulk of his post focuses on the “perceived” impact (negative) Elton Brand has on Andre Miller’s shooting efficiency. Jordan presents some shooting percentages for Miller with Brand and without. And further breaks it down by games played only with the Sixers and overall. His conclusion…
I just did some research and I’m pretty positive there’s at least one player who Elton has a negative effect on. That player is Andre Miller…So, the common denominator in Miller’s shooting woes isn’t the fact that he’s old and starts slow; it’s Elton Brand
I don’t agree with this conclusion for a couple reasons. First, I think Miller, like Iguodala and Louis Williams simply got off to a slow start shooting the basketball this season and that has turned around as of late. Part of it probably had to do with him getting his game legs back. Part of it probably had to do with adjusting to the types of shot attempts he was getting with Brand on the floor (this applies to all players), and part of it probably had to do with the fact that Miller loves to dominates the ball offensively and pretty much dribble wherever he wants on the court. With Brand there he needed to figure out how to get to the spots he likes on the floor offensively and and he simply wasn’t asked to score as much. Also, I think Mo forced a Brand-centric offensive system on the guys instead of forcing Brand into what the Sixers had been doing previously.
If Brand is not full of ish with his “I am all about winning” comment then he should have no problem taking a reduced role and not being the center of the offense. Knowing he will get his in slower paced games which is what they brought him in here for in the first place.
Besides that observatory opinion of the situation I also wondered about the actual numbers. Now, I don’t know what his spreadsheet looks like or what exact numbers he used. But when I went in an did a quick analysis specifically on the time Miller played with Brand in LA since the point was made that, that was Andre Millers worse shooting season. I found some interesting numbers that basically confirmed my first thought that Miller simply had a bad season unrelated to playing with Brand or anyone else.
By looking at the actual game logs I saw that there were 20 out of the 80 totals games Andre Miller played in the 2003 season that Elton was hurt. My first thought was “did Jordan account for this or did he just take Miller’s 2003 totals?“ I don’t know the answer to that question but here is the breakdown from that season:
- In 60 games with Brand: 41.2% FG (298-724)
- In 20 games without Brand: 38.7% FG (79-204)
What that tells me is Andre Miller flat out sucked shooting the ball in 2003 and it had nothing to do with Elton Brand. In fact he actually shot slightly better when Brand played that season. Because Miller shot so poorly in the 2003 season and it represents 71% of his total “with Brand” shot attempts so it gives the impression that he doesn’t play well with Brand, when in reality he just didn’t shoot well period that season and it skews the results.
One final note about Miller’s 2003 season. He shot 108 three pointers that season easily the most in any season of his career. Those three point attempts represented 12% of Miller’s total shot attempts which is double his career average. He shot 21.3% from three that season which is his career average. So that season his poor three point shooting had the greatest impact on his overall FG% than any season in his career as well.
In the end I really just think it comes down to having WAY to small of a sample size of games with Brand to come to such an emphatic conclusion. This season I simply chalk it all up to natural ebb and flow of an NBA season. Guys get hot and cold , it’s just part of the game.
David Aldridge who I personally like a lot as an NBA guy wrote a very interesting piece on NBA.com where he will be blogging regularly now (bookmark it). He suggests and provides ample reasoning why the 2009 free agent class although not better in franchise-level talent may have a bigger impact on the NBA landscape than the more heralded 2010 free agent class. As well as being more realistic in terms of actually landing a good, but not great player.
One premise: there are only a select group of cities that “really” have a chance to land the likes of LeBron, Wade, Bosh even Amare if he opts out. And those cities do not include Sacramento, Memphis and the like.
David offers more insight and it’s an overall good read. What does it mean for the Sixers if anything?
That’s all I got for tonight, but there should be plenty food for thought to keep the discussion until Portland comes to town. You’ll notice with my link posts I don’t just give you the link. I gotta add my 2 cents because, well it’s my blog and that’s how it should be.
If you like these kinds of post let me know and I will make sure we do them more often.