May 17, 2012

Can the Brewers beat the Phils? (In the playoffs)

This upcoming series is very, very important… for the Brewers.

Milwaukee has an insane 50-19 home record and would probably benefit the most for home field throughout the playoffs. Unfortunately for them, they sit 8.5 games back of us, and 11 back in the loss column. A 4-game sweep would give them a chance, but it would still be a long shot.

I’m sure they would also like to prove to themselves that they can hang with the best team in the NL, yada yada yada.

For the Phillies, it would be great to keep winning, and getting swept (unlikely) would probably unleash a media storm, but other than that, this is really just another series, albeit against a very talented opponent.

As a fan, it gives us a look at our biggest threat to our third pennant in four years. Sure, the Braves (yeah, right) or D-Backs could catch fire and knock us off, but Brewers are a legit threat.

Let’s take a look at how we match up.


What scares me about the Brewers

  • They would have the two best offensive players in the series (Fielder, Braun)
  • Greinke has been dominant since the all-star break (2.42 ERA) and we have really struggled with Marcum in the past
  • They have a potential shutdown bullpen with Hawkins, K-Rod and Axford
What doesn’t scare me
  • I’m not too concerned about their 3rd and 4th starters. Gallardo is a hit-able RHP, and while we’ve struggled with Wolf in the past, that was without Pence and Mayberry. We would have a big advantage them going up against Hamels and Oswalt/Worley.
  • Their line-up is not nearly as deep as ours. It drops off considerably after the 5th spot.
Given our depth in the rotation, I would be less concerned about a 7-game series with the Brewers than a 5-gamer where Greinke or Marcum could stymie our offense and put us in a insurmountable hole going back to Milwaukee.
The Brewers could be a challenge. They are a young, energetic team, and certainly have the pieces to put together a Giants-like run. Hopefully this year, with Lee and Pence in the mix, the Phillies will be too strong for even that.

 

 

 

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Comments

  1. The Real Rob says:

    The Phillies have shown that they can really tame those home run hitters.  That Reds series was incredible because the Phillies limited them to one HR.  If the Phillies’ pitching can duplicate a performance like that in a four game series, a sweep COULD be possible.  I have the Phils winning the series taking 3 of 4 (worst case scenario– a split). 

    My concerns regarding the Phils:

    -Will not having Utley affect the offense, even though Jimmy will return?  Then again, these guys have stepped up in the depth department.

    -Roy Halladay, is he getting tired?  Last time, he faced the BRewers, they roughed him up the last two encounters.  (a “poor win” last year and a loss this year).

    -Bullpen.  Will the Phils bullpen play effectively?  Can the Phils try and intimidate the Brewers bullpen?       

    Intriguing Factors:

    -Pitching Matchups

    -Playing in Miller Park (see if the Phils can taint the Brewers’ home record).

    -Howard vs Fielder, the race to hit the most RBIs in the NL. 

    -Worley or Oswalt for the postseason.  Great dilemma for Charlie.

    Mills Lane: LET’S GET IT ON!    

                         

  2. Ken Bland says:

    Roy Halladay, is he getting tired? Last time, he faced the Brewers, they roughed him up the last two encounters. (a “poor win” last year and a loss this year).>>

    That’s a galring misrepresentation of the truth.  He lost the decision in April to the Brewers, 9-0.  But like any and every time The Doctor runs up against a lack of success, people would do well to explore more than the surface to find out what really went down.

    Doc pitched into the 7th inning.  It was a game when he left.  He gave up 1 extra base hit, a deep shot to right off the bat of Ryan Braun, a guy that can easily turn a mistake, and maybe even a good pitch into power.  He threw 19 ground balls, 7 fly balls, and only 3 line drives.  It’s definitely accurate to say it was not a good outing, he ran a high pitch count despite only 2 walks and 3 strikeouts but this game was nowhere near as bad as it seemed on the surface.  Herndon came in and gave up a 3 run homer that charged Doc with 2 earned runs, totalling 6 that made that stat look worse than it could.  If you think Doc allowed those 2 runners to score that Herndon did, the the tooth fairy wants to sell you some swamp land in Florida.

    Doc Halladay doesn’t do 2 bad outings in a row too often.  Last Sunday, versus the Fish, he wqasn’t too sharp.  But now that he’s back on his every 5th day normalcy following the deluge of rain effected scheduling, and the home stretch is clear as day, with competition breathing down his neck for the unique chance to go CY back to back, it’d be a major upset if he doesn’t pitch well tomorrow night.      

           

  3. jjg says:

    Some Phils-related Brewers trivia: 

    Most hits, game:  6, John Briggs, 8/4/73 (honor shared w/Kevin Reimer)
    Most strikouts, game:  6, Geoff Jenkins, 6/8/04
    Most ghosts seen, Pfister Hotel:  5, Charlie Manuel, 10/4/08
     

  4. Ken Bland says:

    More Doc Halladay stuff…

    First off, by monthly splits, suspicions were verified that Doc’s September splits are better than any other month of the season.  Granted, this includes time in his 20′s, when energy, and innings pitched are more favorable to a younger guy, but that’s a fact.  Also includes a number of years when all he had to look forward to was the end of game 162, hardly a motivating factor to finish strong.

    In an extrremely small sample size, which includes the April start detailed above, and a Septemeber start against The Crew last year that was pretty comparable to the less than stellar outing of this year, but still hardly bad, Doc’s stellar career numbers are indeed bottomed out by his resume versus the Crew.  Off a whopping 3 start sampling, none at Miller Park.

    To draw a comparison, when Cliff Lee got battered around by the Braves early this year, it was a bad night attributable to poor control, but it also compounded a non effective career record against the Atlanta club.

    This game is one of averages.  Cream always rises to the top.  Cliff has now turned that true with 17 innings of 1 earned run ball against the Braves, and if you think the Crew is going to keep dinking the ball against the Doctor and keep beating him, or losing to him in “poor wins,” you’re on the side of poor percentages.  Chances are it’s to his advantage that he hasn’t dominated Milwaukee as he prepares for the liklihood of facing them twice in the playoffs.  Common thinking has been concern for Vance Worley being seen multiple times, yet, nobody speaks to the multiple times breeding familiarity to his chances.  And in the preparation spirited case of Doc, good luck betting against that.            

  5. phillyfan says:

    smells like a split to me.  Series is really back page news to the progress or lack thereof that Utley makes.  Could be out 2 days or we could be sitting around next feb wondering if he will be ready for the April opener.  Darn shame if that is the case.

    Will make for some interesting lineups.  Does Pence move to 3-hole?  Mayberry? Victorino? Polanco?

    I though don’t subscribe a bit to the theory he was thrown at.  Typical Utley, he didn’t try to get out of the way and let himself get hit.  This time it backfired.

    • jkay says:

      damn that Chase Utley, always getting himself injured.

    • Stacy says:

      you’re an idiot if you think Utley got hit in the head on purpose

      • jjg says:

        The norm is to bail with alarm and alacrity, aka “hitting the dirt.”  Willful arrogance and reflexive cleverness/combativeness that makes Utley what he is as a player came back to hit him in the head.  Edgy stuff, dangerous development.  Hope he’s okay. 

        • dude says:

          He clearly didn’t see the ball heading towards his head.  It was tailed back and hit him almost from behind.  He bails like anyone else when a pitch is visibly coming up and in at him.

        • jkay says:

          Utley stands right over the plate and barely flinches even when some close pitches brush by. It’s like he takes the battle between he and the pitcher literally. He refuses to back down and be intimidated in any way. It is a part of his intensity that I like, so he is very combative. But I’m not sure how you pull out ‘willful arrogance‘ from that.

          • jjg says:

            Aw, c’mon, be sure.  I didn’t pull it out; I put it in.

            Your “refuses to back down” is synonymous with ‘willful’, if I’m not mistaken.

            Arrogance is PEPP, performance-enhancing, pulsating pride.   

                 

  6. Ken Bland says:

    I wonder if pitchers check starting lineups.  Like for example, and that’s all this is, and a hypothetical one at that, say one of the starters has a preference for Mayberry in left, as in better defense, or if they just mind their own business, and don’t find out until the game starts.

    If they do check it, I wonder if it effects psychology.  Case in point might be tonight’s offering.

    Victorino CF, Valdez SS, Polanco 3B, Pence RF, Mayberry 1B, Ruiz C, Francisco LF, Martinez 2B, Hamels P.

    Gotta play the game one way or another, and its not like every one of those guys hasn’t offered some valuble contribution at some point. 
       

         

    • jkay says:

      Sound defesive lineup tonight. However, Valdez, Martinez and Francisco? That’s 60% of your bench. Not exactly going to pour in runs.
      If they do check it’s probably an unwise decision, you can only see bad things happening in your head.
      *’Go out there and believe that those guys will make plays for you’
      *excerpt from jkay & Deepak Chpra’s upcoming publication The Power of Positive Thinking and Baseball Superstition.

  7. The Real Rob says:

    Great game by Hamels and the team without Rollins, Utley, Howard, and Ibanez in the lineup.  Alright, Doc let’s tack on another win!

  8. Ken Bland says:

    Don’t look now, but the Arizona Diamondbacks have crawled to within 1  1/2 games of the Crew.  If they catch them, it sets up the Phils and Milwaukee in the first round, and the Bax and Braves.

  9. jjg says:

    I’d like to take this opportunity to tip my cap to the perspicacious seeing of Phillyfan who had it right on the Atlanta Braves early … “not enough there.”  I didn’t believe, but now I do by the tenacious arm-twisting of mathematics (post-season being another matter however).  Nice soothsaying!

    While in-country way down upon the Suwannee River, what player holds the single game RBI record for the Boston/Milwaukee/Atlanta Braves franchise?:  As Gary Matthews, the unsworn-in Sarge would say:  That’s right.  RHPitcher Tony Cloninger – 9 [!] on 7/3/66 vs. SF.  2 grand slams and a single.  Oh yeah, he threw a complete game 7-hitter in 17-3 tomahawk of Giants.  Sounds like a fun day.   
    Irony:  Tony the occasional tiger threw 27 wild pitches that year in 257 innings, 1 every 9.5 innings.

  10. jjg says:

    On tap and in living color:  Milwaukee will be wearing special lager gold shirts tomorrow.  Anyone slurring “Go, Brewers!” at the gate gets a bottle of Pepto-Bismol and a Harvey Keunn baseball card.  Last call:  Harv was actually a good player – .303 career average in 15 seasons; AL Rookie Of The Year in ’53, 8-time All-Star, finished with ’66 Phils.    

  11. jjg says:

    Correction:  That’s ‘Kuenn’ as in kueen spelling.

  12. jjg says:

    In 9,084 career plate appearances, LH hitting, rightfielder Enos “Country” Slaughter, a St. Louie Card at heart, batted .2999.  Ain’t that a kick in the head.

    • Ken Bland says:

      well, it’s true that he had that many plate appearances, but being as average is based on official at bats, there’s nothing unfair about his .2998993 being rounded to the even .300 Baseballrefernce.com has his career average at off the actual number of official at bats. I believe 7849 was the number of OABs.

  13. Dude says:

    Don’t look now, but fangraphs noticed that worley is pretty good:

    http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/worleylookingbeachyswinging/

  14. Dude says:

    36% of Pence’s plate appearances came as a Phil this year. He’s tallied 44% of his HR’s in that time. Since eschewing the ‘stros, he’s also increased his OBP by .21, his SLG by .58, and OPS by .77.

  15. Ken Bland says:

    In the spring, the quiz show host said to the 3 panelists, “In September, the Phillies will send an 11-1 pitcher to the mound seeking to go 47 games over .500.  Who will it be?”

    Contestant #2 answered first. “Cliff Lee.  Most people think he’ll win about 15 games, so going into a September game with 11 wins might be about right, with a strong finish.

    “Wrong,” the show host said.

    Two options remained, and contestant number 1′s hand raced to the buzzer.  “Roy Halladay,” she screamed.  “Him losing one game into September sounds about right.”

    “I’m sorry,” said the host, guiding her toward the parting gift department.

    All eyes pointed toward the remaining contestant, known to the masses as number 3.

    This was the first time in his life he’d ever been up with the bases loaded and not a soul retired.  Confidently, he reflected back on Cole Hamels and Roy Oswalt’s strong second halves of a year back, and with messers Halladay and Lee eliminated, knew the way to go was Cole Hamels.

    He was wrong, too.  

    From 46 over, a win tomorrow positions for a sweep of Houston that would result in 50 games over .500.  The record for years leading to this was 41.  50 is a mortal lock at this point, perhaps further out, but when it comes, that’d be a record breaker by close to 20%.  If it stops there. Ever seen a record beat by 20% before?  Short list.

    I stand in complete, total awe of the entire organization.  It has been one helluva ride.                         

  16. Ken Bland says:

    There’s more than meets the eye to the MLB standings.  Should well be with 30 teams comprising the package.  Used to be 16, then 20, and only one post season round, but why let details interfere with the inching closer by the day forthcoming debate about who’s the greatest baseball team of all-time.

    For example….

    the Dodgers, offering up this year’s rendition of they played great in H2, so let’s get all warm and fuzzy about next year are within an earchot of passing the once upon a time World Champion Giants for 2nd place.

    The Red Sox, attempting to defy history off a 2-10 start by making the post season now hold but a 4.5 game lead over Tampa for the AL wild card.  Tampa, for its comebacking story, started 0-8.  And lo and behold, the Orange County Angels of near Buena Park, a bug on the Texas Rangers windshield have crawled to within 5 games of the Boston club.  If the AL West claims 2 playoff spots, leaving the AL East with only reputation, it’d be 1 of the 10 greatest upsets of all-time, edged out only by every regular season game won by the 9-73 10-9-8 76ers.

    *****************************************************************************************

    The Red Sox not making the playoffs is really a dream, in reality.  But it’s at least reached a point where it’s discussable.  Sort of like the possibility of Hunter Pence winning the batting title.  He’s some 20 points behind leader Jose Reyes, and faces the time honored difficulty of a few players inbetween.  But Pence is obviously getting more comfortable with each additional game on the Phils schedule.  And with the Houston Disastros, and a return trip home within hours, Pence might be hitting .380 by week’s end.  Let’s just say that if the 9-73 76ers won a game, and they did, 9 times, in fact, Pence winning the title has it’s possibilities.

    *****************************************************************************************

    As we struggle for interesting themes amidst an actual lack of drama in the baseball playoff races, the first full slate of NFL games starts in a few hours.  My number one reaction to this development is that Mike Vick, and Plaxico Burress will be in uniform, and Tiki Barber won’t.  Tiki apparently has a felony trial pending for the crime of unpopularity.  It’s amazing that he couldn’t even get a tryout off his prior level of performance, which included leaving a pregnant wife for an intern.  Female interns, back in the day were a generally speaking attractive lot.  So I guess there is something they still make like they used to.  Despite Tiki’s absence from the opening day rosters, with the baseball races so finished, it can only help a back from the threatened strike NFL perhaps set TV first week rating records.  Course attractive matchups might help that cause, and that would involve caring more about NFL week 1 than I does by knowing what they might be.  But I know who the Rams play.

    *****************************************************************************************                      

    The pennant non race picture kinda reminds me of the race for stupidest post of the year on this here website.  The classic “Ruben Amaro is an asshole” line that came out of the negotiating stage, let alone Hunter Pence trade execution is a leader.  That would be charming, since it would take away the title from the one individual who threatens to set new levels of ineptitude every time he scribes a post.  Then there’s the guy who writes posts that are so stupid, they are ingenius.  First, he asked the “more knowledgable” types if Houston would take John Canberry for Hunter Pence.  Now, Pence has played some remarkable baseball for the Phils, but ever since that question, Canberry has a slug line of .6000/.10,000/one million.  Maybe that wasn’t so stupid after all in a way.  Then, same guy comes on and starts talking minimum 3 of 4, possible sweep of the Crew this weekend.  And E! News, as it turns out, is reporting that the Crew is not succumbing so far for theor health or entertainment purposes.  Course the same guy was hawking Doug Collins, prize catch of the 9-73 10-9-8-76ers great year as NBA Coach of the Year, and that didn’t work out, but nobody’s perfect.

    *****************************************************************************************

    I find baseball marketing slogans interesting.   Dates back to the catchiness of the Cardinals running billboards during Lou Brock times called “The Great American Slideshow.”  I think we have some good possibilities amongs current ballclubs comprising MLB.  For example…..

    San Fransisco – “A Giant Step Forward, A Ginat Step Back.”

    Houston – “100 degrees outside, 100 losses inside.”

    Detroit - “Shhhhh.  Don’t tell anyone how good we are.”

    Florida – “If We Build it, they might come.”

    Pirates – “Normalcy has returned.”

    Dodgers – “We play non-profit baseball.”

    I seriously doubt it, consistency being so solid, but I think I haver zero typos in this one.  If that’s the case, that remarkable alteration is post of the year material on that totally unique occurence.                          

  17. jjg says:

    Enjoyed your slogans, KB.  In fact, they were inspirational:

    Dodgers:  Numbers in red, owners in hoc; it’s pretty out here, unlike our stock.

    Pirates:  Don’t be sad, three rivers and one outcome ain’t bad.

    Floridians:  A moon over Miami and the wool over you.  Promise.

    Tigers:  Depressed over your real estate?  See Verlander, King Of The Hill.

    Giants:  Rice-A-Roni, once again, your San Francisco treat.

    Astros:  Open tryouts before every game.  Come launch your new career!     

      

       
      

    • Ken Bland says:

      Inspirational is in the eye of thre beholder, but thanks.  I’d say at best interesting.  The Houston slogan was out and out plagerism from the Houston Chronicle, but the rest were self generated.

      Now my definition of inspirational is perhaps different.  It’s a neighbor walking by Sunday afternoon, and knowing that I’m a sports fan, and assumedly aware of the Dallas Cowboys every breath by the location in which I hang my hat, trying to be sociable by informing me the Cowboys were a 6 point favorite over the J-E-T-S, Jets, Jets, Jets.  Primed to make good business decisions every chance I get, I neighborly told him I’d take the Jets and 5 if he wanted to pursue a wager.  Ain’t no fan like a Cowboy cockroach fan who sees the world so one dimensionally that he thinks the Cowboys are a favorite in ever game they play.  Taking a 6 point favorite and getting 5 points is one of the more open vault experiences of my life, and befits my definition of inspirational in an inspirational sense.  That was the first sports bet I’ve placed since 1997, and like that one, was a nice one to retire on.  That story might be the ultimate hard to believe, Harry tale of all time, but it’s as true as the sun still conducting rhe earth’s rortation.  

  18. jjg says:

    I was thinking of Roy Oswalt this morning and who passed by but ol’ Bob Buhl and Ray Herbert.  

    Myers has Phillies number:  215-SLOP.  His big curve had many muttering on return to dugout.  

    Carlos Lee sees red when he plays Phils.  14 blasts & 48 ribbies in 49 Gs & 194 ABs.       

  19. jjg says:

    Carlos Lee vs. Phils, update:  15 & 50 in 50 & 197.

  20. Ken Bland says:

    Have to admit to yielding to the credibility of this Game 4 playoff starter holding some validity at this point.  I mean, public opinion on the subject is just sidebar, but the Vanimal is making this thing interesting.

    Considering that Worley’s effort was solid, and against a likely playoff foe, in their park, no less, he’s done his part to get seriously in the conversation.

    I really thought that was as non debatable as could be.  A very average Roy O would kill the possibity off the experience card.  Not that Roy pitched badly last night, but he is turning in some very average performances at best, and the discussions hold merit.  5 earned runs against Houston, even with Carlos Lee still on their club isn’t something you highlight on a resume, sloppy defense or not.

    I suppose my clouded mind would still guess Charlie would lean toward experience, but it’s close.  That’d be just thrilling to have to make that call up against a 2-1 deficit, which really would make it far more interesting than we’d like to see.  Interesting isn’t always good.  

            

  21. jjg says:

    Red Sox have lost 5 in a row, 9 of 11, 10 of 13.  Entire team, not just deficient hurlers, gets credit, according to Boston Herald‘s John Tomase.  Rays (3) and Angels (5.5) within range for WC slot.  The on-tap 10-G homestand should be a curative though.  The little coop near Kenmore Square has a way of promoting energy and starched Sox.         

    • Ken Bland says:

      The on-tap 10-G homestand should be a curative though. The little coop near Kenmore Square has a way of promoting energy and starched Sox.>>

      See, that’s what I think, too, but the fact of the matter is that the Boston atmosphere is also one that can lead to unwinding fast, too.  The Rays have 4 games in Boston, and then 3 games at Yankee, so they aren’t even totally out of the picture to win the division. 

      Fact of the day.  There are 7 pitchers throwing in the bigs drafted by the Yankees in the 2006 (might be 2007) amatuer draft.  That’s a great draft.   

  22. jjg says:

    Rays do traditionally play ‘em tough.  Time for Terry to fire ‘em up or loosen ‘em up.  Sunflower seeds should take a back seat now.  Rival Joe Maddon is no slouch. 

  23. Ken Bland says:

    The Roberto Clemente Award goes to the Major Leaguer who “best exemplifies the game of baseball, sportsmanship, community involvement and the individual’s contribution to his team.” Tim Wakefield won it last year. The 2011 nominees — one per team — were just announced. They are as follows:
    Arizona Diamondbacks – Joe Saunders
    Atlanta Braves – Tim Hudson
    Baltimore Orioles – Adam Jones
    Boston Red Sox – David Ortiz
    Chicago Cubs – Ryan Dempster
    Chicago White Sox – Juan Pierre
    Cincinnati Reds – Jay Bruce
    Cleveland Indians – Justin Masterson
    Colorado Rockies – Troy Tulowitzki
    Detroit Tigers – Justin Verlander
    Florida Marlins – Gaby Sanchez
    Houston Astros – Jason Bourgeois
    Kansas City Royals – Billy Butler
    Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim – Torii Hunter
    Los Angeles Dodgers – Clayton Kershaw
    Milwaukee Brewers – LaTroy Hawkins
    Minnesota Twins – Michael Cuddyer
    New York Mets – Mike Pelfrey
    New York Yankees – CC Sabathia
    Oakland Athletics – Josh Willingham
    Philadelphia Phillies – Ryan Howard
    Pittsburgh Pirates – Jeff Karstens
    St. Louis Cardinals – Albert Pujols
    San Diego Padres – Orlando Hudson
    San Francisco Giants – Jeremy Affeldt
    Seattle Mariners – Felix Hernandez
    Tampa Bay Rays – James Shields
    Texas Rangers – Michael Young
    Toronto Blue Jays – Ricky Romero
    Washington Nationals – Ian Desmond

  24. Dude says:

    Wow, what an ugly couple of games.

  25. Ken Bland says:

    If they expand the English language to enable commentary on tonight, last night, and each of the previous September losses of the last 2 years to the Astros, I’ll be happy to express an opinion.  Current English language prevents that possibility.

  26. jkay says:

    In other unrelated news, Boston’s Tim Wakefield gets his 200th win, … finally.
    Now just get back to losing so we can have at least one exciting race to watch in September.

  27. jjg says:

    Jarrod Saltalamacchia has the longest name in MLB, 20 letters.  That’s one short of the number of passed balls ascribed to him this season, 21.  It’s rumored that he finds comparative solace in Connie Mack’s 76 for the 1887 Washington Nationals (perhaps a number unduly influenced by aromas therein at the Agricultural County Fair Grounds).  And when considering the considerable total of all-time PB king Rudy Kemmler – 114 in 82 Gs for the 1883 Columbus Buckeyes - ”Salty” gets downright giddy and continues his dream of a bust next to Bill Dickey.  Footnote:  Our town’s Carlos Ruiz has accrued 7 this season, highest total of his career. 
     

  28. jjg says:

    Phillies, 94-51.  Reminiscent of halftime scores of Paul Westhead’s late 80s Loyola Marymount teams.  3 straight losses – it’s called a lull in the action.  Wake me up if it reaches 10. 

  29. Ken Bland says:

    Phils 2012 schedule is out, on the team’s website.  Go to schedule, and click ahead to April, 2012, and go from there.

    West coast trip in April.

    Red Sox at the Bank.

    close out at the Nats.

    Open against the Pirates.

    and above all, Houston’s on the schedule.           

  30. jjg says:

    Favorable interleague draw – Cheeri-Os & Twinkies.  Atypical early west coast trip avoids some cool, iffy east coast nights.  The Fourth of July in the flushing meadows of The Town That Never Sleeps.  A Labor Day cookout in the Great American Ballpark.  What are the open dates on Fri April 6 and Tues Apr 10 about?  Storm determinations already?  Those fastidious schedulers, they think of everything.    

  31. Ken Bland says:

    The way I figure it, Doc has 2 starts left after today.  Home to the Cards, and against the Mets.  If he wins out, he’ll finish with 20 even.  If he does that, he’ll be the 4th Phil to in 20 in consecutive years.  Alex won 30 and 33 consecutively, Robbie won at least 20 5 straight, and Lefty did it in ’76 and 77.  Doc’s already going to be remembered around here for a long time (people still remember John Denney, so why not?), but it’d be fitting and proper if he’s remembered as part of that elite group that is separated from the bunch, at least in this particular category.

    Unfortunately, it’s going to be tough, though certainly possible.  There’s just so little margin for error.  Can’t afford extra inning games, and there is less than zero reason to give him an extra start to do it.  And I don’t know that it matters, but the redbirds figure to need wins more than desperately.

    If the Doc misses, he’ll have to start a new run at age 35.  35 and 36 are tough ages to win 20, particularly in the day and age of a 5 man rotation.  Doing that now would be a real coup of the group, considering how often the others started, especially Alex.

    Maybe pitcher’s wins don’t matter too much.  In this case, specific goal at hand, they mean a lot.  And if winning a 20th game sways 1 CY voter to vote higher for the Doc on this year’s figures to be competitive ballot, it matters then as well.

    Let’s go Doc!          

  32. Ken Bland says:

    In the same spirit that FCC requirements were met with the booming voice saying “In just 3 seconds, turn up your radio for more power from WIBG” when sundown hit the schedule, and radio was a medium of value, I would offer “in just 3 outs, say hello to your new NL ERA leader, Doc Halladay”.

    Cueto and CK pitch tonight.  So do Timmy, Dan Hudson, and Jered Weaver.   Not a bad array of talent on display. 

  33. Ken Bland says:

    case closed on that sucker.

    Where are all the bufoons that screamed about Doc being overworked earlier in the season.  Here we are, deep in the heart of the season, and the man is still The Man.  

    • jjg says:

      Didn’t he nearly die of heat exhaustion in the 5th inning at Miami recently? 

      • Ken Bland says:

        details, details.  But it was Chicago.  Miami might have killed him.

        • jjg says:

          Thanks for settin’ that straight.  Yeah, Arlington, Phoenix and St.Louis are out as his next stop too (doc’s orders).  Can’t imagine him winding down with a Carlton-like carnival of caps anyway.  Not that he’s close to buying the farm careerwise.    

  34. Ken Bland says:

    Here’s the latest on the Red Sox, and their want to create a pennant race.  Having reversed a trend last night, and snapping a lost 5 games in the standings in 5 games played, Daniel Bard has given up 3 runs in the 8th, and lost the lead.  Unbelievable.

  35. jkay says:

    The Philadelphia Phillies, well on their way to dropping another one; the occasional miscue, runners left on base, and impotent bats in the face of flamethrower Norris. All the conditions were ripe for another L. Not until Doc swooped in to pitch a CG shutout and secure the inevitable but procrastinated postseason spot. What a him!

    • Ken Bland says:

      boy, that x next to Philadelphia for clinched playoff berth looks sweet.

      The Phils are 3 wins away from winning more regular season games each year during this 5 year run.  That is one outstanding achievement.  Pittsburgh, or any downtrodden club might do that fairly easily down near the bottom of the standings.  But in association with 5 staight divvy titles, that is just unreal.  

      “We don’t want to be good.  We want to be legendary.”

                                                            – Jimmy Shortstop   

      • jjg says:

        To earn the title “Jimmy Shortstop” he needs to NOT stop short of all hustle, all the time.  His mouth certainly qualifies though.  Rises to the occasion … when he feels like it.

        Even with the inferior stick, I’ll still take Larry Bowa as my shortstop over Little Nostradamus. 

  36. Ken Bland says:

    I have very little idea what’s going on with Antonio Bastardo.  The only thing I do know is that 6 days ago, he admitted to being tired.  I also “know,” if you will, that this guy is critical to a deep playoff run.  And with the liklihood of no other lefty in the pen, not only is it important that he pitch effectively, but possibly frequently.`The more condensed post season schedule is highly advantageous to the Phils starter wise, but if you consider AB’s current situation, those wondering about the bullpen can’t be laughed at.

    Antonio hasn’t pitched in a while now.  Exactly what the plan has been in rest terms is probably a day to day proposition based on bullpen sessions.  His last outing was a week ago, and a quick hook kept it a short outing following a 2 batter sequence of a walk and a hit.  I thought we might see him Tuesday night, but that was a losing situation, and who knows if he’d have pitched anyway.  Yesterday, the unfamiliar sight of Madson and Lidge warming up together in the pen signalled Bastardo was still on rest.  So his next appearance remains a mystery, and with KK throwing 1 of today’s games, even under the best of circumstances, hardly the case with his recent schedule, you know it’s a pen day.  All I know is in 2 weeks, Antonio, goal wise, needs to be ready to pitch often.  The idea of feeling confident about making him the closer in 2012 seems pretty shot.  He was never considered an iron man anyway, and his understandable fatigue hasn’t done anything to hurt Ryan Madson’s leverage for a return trip to the club.  The market will be flooded with bullpen free agents, that part hurts Madson’s leverage, but if Bastardo’s The Man in ’12, it’d be a complete surprise.

    The other game today is assigned to the greatness of Cliff Lee.  Here we are, back where we were about 3 weeks ago.  If he throws another complete game shutout, you could justify thinking he’s ahead of the field in maybe the best CY derby in a long time.  Doc’s ERA League lead was shorter than William Henry Harrison’s tenure as President.  Cueto and Kshaw thre goose eggs, and Cliff could tie Doc in IP, and ERA, but still trail CK by 2.34 to 2.30. 

    Both these story lines are secondary today.  We won’t see them both play 2 games, but we may see Chase and Jimmy together in 1 of the 2 games.  One can only assume because of his toughness that Chase deals with having been hit in the head effectively.  In reality, that’s as much hope as anything.  There’s just no easy way to think of getting hit in the head as easy to oversome.  I’m already a million times over proud of what Chase has been as a player.  Whenever it ends, and however it ends someday, I hope it somehow ends on his terms.  His body is doing a fine job of making that hard.       

  37. jjg says:

    In case you haven’t noticed today, Pete Orr is a highly underrated 2nd baseman, bordering on magnificent, exploring the land of Ted Sizemore.  And that Pete’s family tree includes Jimmy, Bobby & Johnny only adds to the lustre of this crackerjack fill-in for “Mopes” Utley. 

  38. phillyfan says:

    This is brutal baseball, impossible to watch.  Hou – Fish  = A disinterested club against a minor league team.

    You really can see why only 2 of the past 25 teams to win 100 game or more has won a world series.  the more games you win the longer stretch of meaningless games you will have to endure.  The deeper our of your slumber you will have to come when the real season starts.  It will be tough.

    I still am predicting the Phils lose no more than a total of 3 games on their way to the title.  What saves them is their best pitchers will still be hungering for a WS title.  So hopefully they can lead the way and turn on that switch.

    • jjg says:

      11-3 against the best.  In some chill (MIL, BOS, NY, DET) and under certain pressure.  Tall order, even for “Aces of Hades” Phils.  

  39. Ken Bland says:

    Be nice.  If you can’t say something nice about McCarthy-Mathews-Wheeler, don’t be sayin’ nothin’. Just post something that by it’s presence makes it’s point.  Just do it.

    http://topics.treehugger.com/topic/Harry_Caray

    • jjg says:

      Opine oneself, and edit not.  The village green awaits. 

      One man’s style must not be the rule of another’s.  ~ Jane “Inkwell” Austen    

  40. Ken Bland says:

    There’s a Hall of Famer stepping to the plate.

    • Ken Bland says:

      in the immortal words of George Gervin, father of Ice Cube, that man can finger roll.

      Now if Brad Lidge could crank out 1 95 mph number 1, just for old time’s sake, my pre Cliff portion of the day would be complete.  

  41. Ken Bland says:

    One team I look back on as a reference point from time to time is the 1966 Dodgers.  While I’m not as into the comps of this year’s rotation historically that as a fan of this team and history might project, that, if not by balance, was one terrific club, led by an in prime rotation of Sandy, Double D, Claude Osteen, and a 21 year old Don Sutton.

    Had occasion to reference them this morning.  Corey Seidman ran some telling numbers on the Phils today.  Team is 30-39 in games of 3 runs or less.  Maybe might not sound horribly impressive by itself.  Campared to other teams in today’s game, it is a mind boggling accomplishment.  Phils are destroying that would be division more than see ya around Atlanta.  But what really stood out was the high number of games that the NL West offensive inepts have played where they scored 3 or less.  Totals equalling the 66 Dodgers, who, NL pennant winners that they were (Orioles 4. Bums 0) sucked offensively.  That Dodger club was a manually counted 33-55 in they scored 3 or less encounters.  Stick that in your match up against the Phils 30-39 ledger and tell the Dodgers to get down on their knees and spell F-I-G-H-T-I-N-S.  So here sit Kershaw opponents playing over half their games (so far!) with 3 or fewer runs, and these absolute morons want to tell us that Clay Kershaw is the CY leader.  Are you kidding me?  Dude is fabulous at home, pretty good on the road (he ain’t no Doc), and pitches 2 of every 3 division encounters against the Midgets and the Padless.   And the last standings important game CK pitched was ________?  Probably as part of the day night doubleheader when the opening game was Moses versus the Red Sea. 

    ******************************************************************************************

    Sources tell me that everyone on the 3rd planet from the sun has a twin.  I believe I’ve found the twin of the looney tunes that wasted valuble keyboard use trying to tell the masterminds (zero sarcasm) that run this here team that they were overextending pitchers.  They would be those that come on here and complain about this being boring. O-Kay!!!  I got no problem with people being ridiculous enough to prefer Hershey’s to Nestle’s, and in to each their own spirit, if you’re bored, so be it.  Some people don’t appreciate the style and strategy of working a hitter in and out, cuves and cutters, the value of a double figure pitch count at bat, all the good stuff that takes this game to personally felt levels that are completely engulfing.  Far be it from me to care, or guess what them folkses find interesting, but on a sidebar level, every game the rest of the year offers unique theatre if they’re looking for another excitement that probably escapes them.  Tonight for example, offers chapter 1 of a wraparound set against the St. Louis “They’re Going Down, too” Redbirds.  The next win is number 98, if you are scoring at home.  That will be the 5th year in a row that this Golden Aged Franchise will exceed the previous year’s win total.  That’s a winning team winning more.  Maybe the Pope did that when he had more followers each of his first 5 years after creating Catholicism, but that’s an unreal sports accomplishment.  The same win will pay off the over players on the 97 win season total that seemed the common Vegas number.  The Phils have had more infirmary visits than Jefferson Hospital at 2 AM on any Friday night, and you had to be bind, stupid, or disrespectful of economics to place huge bucks on an over 97 total even on a full roster.  97 is one high number.  And every game the rest of the way will feature the club or indicduals shooting for records that might be paled by the ring goal, but even Yankee fans had to wait 34 years (27-61) before seeing brutal level domination again.  These are the good old days.  Before your very eyeses.  And I’m more bored with the bored than they are with these good old days.
      

    • jkay says:

      bored with the bored?  Nahh from the sound of it, I’d say miffed at least, irritated or perhaps slightly perturbed.
       
      If you win a 100 baseball games in a 162 season, I can confidently deduce that you are very good at winning baseball games period. Hence, you will most likely triumph over other teams who are somewhat as good, albeit not as much, at winning baseball games. A lack of simplicity and a fretful mind are the only things that can lead you to otherwise conclusions.

      • jjg says:

        Sounds good, but don’t hang a shingle for your “confident deduc[ing].”  
         
        Since ’88, playoff losers:

        NL - Mets 100; Braves 104,101,106,103,101,101; D-Backs 100; Cards 100, 105 [total - 10]
        AL – A’s 104, 103, 103; Indians 100; Mariners 116; Yanks 103, 101 101; Angels 100 [total -9]

        ’100+ win team’ losers – 19
        ’100+ win team’ WS winners – 2 (Yanks ’98 & ’09)

        2-19; .095

        OTHERWISE CONCLUSION, simply, unfretfully:  Win 100 regular season games, you will not most likely triumph over other teams who are somewhat as good.

        • Ken Bland says:

          This is great marketing stuff.  For those inclined to drive themselves nuts worrying about how the post season will work out, it’s the perfect read.  And there will be beaucoup quantities of it in the next month.

          But it’s a very superficial common thread amongst excellent baseball teams.  At absolute most, it might suggest that those dominant teams were quicker to feel the pressure at the point they realized they were playing from behind, and time was short.

          There’s no reason to dissrespect the fact.  But it does zero to fit into a cirriculum of learning from the past to avoid repeat mistakes.  Some clubs win a lot of games, and it’s no surprise they don’t stand up.  It even lends creedence to the to a fair degree fallacy that the post season is luck.  Oh, there’s some luck here and there, but it’s about execution.  And I’d bet that of all the terrific teams that didn’t get it done, it was more likely a common flawed fundamental they showed, maybe a small ball element that was their likely undoing as opposed to demagogaey type stats like this that are for selling negativity, or the role of an underdog that is unique to big winners.      

          • jjg says:

            Great marketing stuff?  Thanks, but I humbly step aside for the creator of “every game the rest of the year offers unique theatre.“  Genius hyperbole.  By way of funnybone.  And followed by association with ’27 & ’61 Yanks.  Masterful!  

            There’s nothing superficial about series elimination; as you well know, it cuts deep.  And that reality’s connection to 19 teams since ’88 who ‘won 100 and fizzled’ is certainly a sound cirriculum inclusion for Playoff Team Assessment 101.  We must learn from history or we’re condemned to repeat our bets.

            Gimme ‘post-season ultimately effective’ over ‘regular season dominant’ every year.  Laurels are for wintertime, following the earning.

             

              

        • jkay says:

          So the trick is to lose more games?
          Excellent Professor jjg. Let me fax a copy of those stats to Charlie asap.

          Like the Madden and SI cover curses, hitting streak, no-hitter superstitious practices and meaningless stats like that, they will be upheld as creed until someone comes along and dispels that theory. I am hoping that will be the 2011 Phils.

          Seal it up tonight Roy-O!

      • Ken Bland says:

        That’s probably an excellent post.  Doesn’t seem to have much to do with the post its jointed to,so probably is the safety valve.

    • jjg says:

      “Hey, Mac, there may be some truth down there but we’re gonna need a backhoe and a Geiger counter.”

  42. Dude says:

    I like Mayberry, but he’s not a first baseman

  43. jjg says:

    Phineas T. Bluster lives!!!

  44. Ken Bland says:

    3

  45. Ken Bland says:

    2

  46. Ken Bland says:

    uno

  47. Ken Bland says:

    The Phils are Eastern Dicision Champs for the 11th time in 42 years.

    Congrats, and thanks to the players, staff, and sacrificing families that have made this a great deal of fun.  

  48. jkay says:

    5th straight National League East Title. What makes this one so special? …
    … IT’S HAPPENING NOW!!!
    Yeah!! Go Post-season Penned and Pennant Pre-destined Phils!!

  49. Ken Bland says:

    It is Philadelphia Phillies Baseball Time

     
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1QJd9l8_pNY&feature=youtu.be

  50. Ken Bland says:

    Lost in the shuffle tonight….

    end of August, we discussed Phils becoming the fifth (ah, I love that number tonight) club to win 16 minimum every month of the season.  Tonight is win number 12 for September.  12 games left.  Ca ching.

    Kudos to Tom McCarthy for a great home run call on Raul’s shot.  Kinda think Musser’s ”he buried it!” lasts longer in my memory from the greatness of the ’80 clincher in Montreal, but that’s good work by Tom.

    One guy guessed at a lineup of subs tomorrow night.  Hmmmm.  I actually kinda doubt it, but could well be wrong.  Kinda sends a message of a lot more to do, and HFA is real, real big stuff to Charlie.

    It has been a great, great night.           

  51. Ken Bland says:

    There’s really no reason to get shut out here.  7 hits, but 3 DPs is just murder.  Be a helluva comeback, but at least Polly walks to start the 7th.

  52. Ken Bland says:

    Pretty cool watching Justin DeFratus pitch an inning at least.  He almost travlled the Schwimer route as Berkman drilled one 600 fee high, and 400 feet far, but the park held it.  Brandon Moss was on deck when Schneider made the last out.  Why they used Bowker earlier, who knows.  Might have still been a game then.  Probably get to see some kids on Tuesday, but it should be full steam ahead when Doc and Cliff pitch.  Savery’d be cool.  he might be a legend around here between arm and stick someday. Would have been a nice game to play better, and win after last night, but it’s worth the price.  Doc for 19 tomorrow.  Here’s to it.

  53. Ken Bland says:

    To get back to this nonsense about how best records in baseball don’t result in winning championships and how its strictly headline/marketing material, here’s a way of looking at it.

    One of the most fun things about the NCAA basketball tournament is the seedings.  They do nothing to promote long term traditional playoff rivalries, like say the Ivy League winner playing the A-10 (or however many it is these days) in a first round game annually.  MLB instead bases seedings on regular season records with the stipulation that no wild card can play a divvy winner in round 1.  This, unlike the NCAA, at least allows for the possibility of heightening intra divison rivalries by matching up in the LCS, and potentially enhancing rivalries that may add long term intensity to the rivalries in coming years.

    But say MLB ran seedings, instead of automatic berths.  The now 8 and soon to be 10 playoff clubs seeded either intra league, or sport wide still doesn’t add a wide difference between clubs that offsets the fact that the games are won on the field.  The best team in baseball is the Phillies.  But if you seeded them, or they wind up playing anyone from Arizona or Milwaukee, to struggling Boston or Texas, are they really that much of a favorite that the great regular season is even a factor.

    The game, the matchups, as always, and always will comes down to components, and execution.  Fact is, even if they win 106 games this year, a great achievement rarely equalled in history, the Phils do not have as great and proven a bullpen as perfect describes, and aren’t exactly strong in pinch hitting as could be.  Like the 1980 championship club, they are real strong in top talent, and beatable in other facets.  That, as is likely the case with 100 win failings of the past is far more relavant than this superficial 100 win clubs usually fail.  This is not to be confused with champions not repeating, which is a whole different story, foundated by the short off season, and motivation factors at the top.  Looking at the Mariners outstanding team that won 116 games, you’d be more inclined to think in terms of how did they win that many if you saw who their starters were.  Not to say they couldn’t have won it all with the likes of Griffey, Edgar and Buhner in their lineup, but all 100 wins means is you beat who you were supposed to as much as you should have.  If we extend to 97 wins, and best record in the League, is it far more relavant that the ’08 Cubs were right hand batter loaded, and matched up with the Dodgers excellent righty pitching, or this carp about best teams not winning?  That, is called a rhetorical question. The connection between 100 plus win clubs that fail is far more relavant to specifics of the roster than anything else.  It has nothing more than a possible small amount to do with the common thread of what is purely a historical anecdote that only a fool would think is important.     

     
          

    • Ken Bland says:

      Another example of a guy who has followed the game for a long time, and, well, you be the judge of if he knows what he is talking about, or thinks that because he’s followed it thinks he understands what the hell is going down.

      Philadelphia: If everybody had been healthy, they still would’ve been overrated. Win all the divisions you want – eventually an unreliable closer will cost you too much to survive it. Now he’s hurt, and his heir presumptive is so incapable of stepping up that his manager and general manager have publicly expressed their doubts about him. There’s the outfield, already a problem spot before Domonic Brown was hurt (Raul Ibanez is its power – he hit 16 homers last year). And most disastrous of all, deranging everything from the infield defense to the entire batting order, is the combination injury/enigma of Chase Utley. I’ll repeat what I wrote here in my Fantasy Notes last week: everything I heard from everybody I know connected to the Phillies says that Utley’s options are season-ending knee surgery, or virtually-season-ending rehab. Either way, offensively the Phillies are reduced to Ryan Howard with very little line-up protection, the hustle and skill of Shane Victorino, and lord-knows-what from Jimmy Rollins. The Phillies are not contenders. Oh yeah – nice rotation. Unfortunately it’s like living in a mansion with no furniture.

      http://keitholbermann.mlblogs.com/2011/04/06/2011-previews-n-l-east/

      • Stacy says:

        wow – reading that now you have to wonder if he’s ever actually watched a baseball game – at least ones taking place in the NL East. 

    • jjg says:

      Ego amok.  Back up the truck … ” ‘mon back.” [beep ... beep ... beep] 

  54. Ken Bland says:

    Red Sox are losing again, 6-2, T5 at home to the O’s against Jeremy Guthrie, fighting off a 20 loss ledger card.  With John Lackey scheduled to pitch the nightap.  The only question left is will the barrier of intersting break down. We’re right up against it.  How deep can they dig?

    • Stacy says:

      that is unbelievable what they’re going through.  A friend of mine is going crazy watching it unfold.

      • Ken Bland says:

        Your friend should be going nuts.  You get off to a 2-10 start with a payroll tax level payroll, and then climb back to best team in baseball reputation by June, and now this.  It’s a tough, tough year.  If they clinch the wild card, it’ll be a perfectly understandable celebration, if it’s wild.  Like the Braves going crazy would be sort of overdoing it, even though they’ve managed to let the Cards and Giants hang, but they are still in complete control.  If the BoSox win tonight with Lackey going, they are still in fairly decent shape, but the pressure up there is undoubtedly crazy.  I guess a lifetime pass expires this close to World titles in ’04 and ’07.  I hate to see a team I like and respect go through that, but the Rays are a great, great story, too.

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