Entries Tagged 'Chase Utley' ↓

Chase Utley has officially broken out. What many Philadelphia fans have known for a couple years is now spreading all around the league - Utley is one of, if not the, best all-around talents in baseball. He hits for power and average and is a phenomenal base-runner and defensive player. He hustles, and his (and J-Roll’s) competitive spirit makes him one of the leaders of the reigning NL East champions and current NL East front-runners. Joe Morgan recently said that he has a chance to be “the best 2nd baseman ever.”

But just HOW good has Utley been this year? In this day in age where sports media is around us 24/7 in 100 different forms, everyone is looking for someone to hype up. So are the people already paving Utley’s path to Cooperstown justified? Let’s take a look.

If Utley continues at his current pace, his final numbers will look something like this:

.315 BA, 55 HR, 138 RBI, 128 Runs, 102 Extra-Base Hits, 408 Total Bases, .664 Slugging %, 1.064 OPS

Below, you can find what his all-time single-season ranks would be for a 2nd basemen (with ranks regardless of position in parentheses).

HR: 1st (19th)
XBH: T-1st (12th)
Total Bases: 3rd (21st)
RBI: 5th
SLG%: 5th (67th)
OPS: 9th
Runs: 20th

Only 10 players in the history of baseball have had 100+ extra base hits and 400+ total bases in a single season, they are: Babe Ruth, Rogers Hornsby, Chuck Klein, Lou Gehrig, Stan Musial, Jimmie Foxx, Todd Helton, Barry Bonds, Sammy Sosa and Luis Gonzalez. This means that Utley would be the first player not on steroids, or who plays in Coors Field, to accomplish the feat since 1948. Will he? Who knows. Last year he was on pace to set the all-time single season doubles mark before he broke his hand.

The thing with Utley is that his bat-speed is so good and his swing is so compact that you really could see him keeping this up through an entire year. With a player like Howard or Burrell, you never know when they are going to hit a huge slump.

It’s clear to me that the HOF predictions for Utley are justified, but very much premature. If he continues at his pace this season, and puts up 5-6 more years like his last few, he’ll probably be a no-brainer. But that’s still 5-6 years, injury free, before we get to that point. However, considering how he continues to get better, even when you think he can’t possibly get better, he certainly has a chance of being the best 2nd baseman ever.

Explanation of ratings system and other team previews here

I decided to change it up a little bit for the last 3 teams of MLB Preview - The Mets, Braves and Phillies. Since this is a Philly blog, people are most interested in how these 3 teams stack up in what should be one of the closest division races in baseball. What I’m going to do is rank their players, not by position, but by “best hitter vs. best hitter,” “2nd best hitter vs. 2nd best hitter,” etc… Then, at the end, I plan to come to some sort of logical and meaningful conclusion.

Best Hitter

1. Ryan Howard, Phillies
2. David Wright, Mets
3. Chipper Jones, Braves

Comment: Howard and Wright are neck and neck, but the way Howard has been hitting this spring, I expect we will see the 2006 version of Howard.

2nd Best

1. Mark Teixeira, Braves
2. Chase Utley, Phillies
3. Carlos Beltran, Mets

Comment: How well did Teixeira play after coming over the Braves? Well, if he hits at the rate he did in his 56 games for the team, he will hit .317 with 51 HR and 168 RBI over a full season. Wow.

3rd Best

1. Jimmy Rollins, Phillies
2. Jose Reyes, Mets
3. Jeff Francouer, Braves

Comment: I’m going to give the reigning NL MVP the benefit of the doubt, but I could see him having a slightly disappointing season this year.

4th Best

1. Brian McCann, Braves
2. Pat Burrell, Phillies
3. Carlos Delgado, Mets

Comment: McCann is due for a breakout year, we know what we will get from Burrell (.270, 30 HR, 95 RBI) and Delgado has a lot of injuries to recover from before he’s going to be a productive hitter.

5th Best

1. Ryan Church, Mets
2. Matt Diaz, Braves
3. Geoff Jenkins, Phillies

Comment: I actually like the acquisition of Church for the Mets (though they might regret losing Lastings Milledge in the long run). Church’s 43 doubles in 470 ABs last year is very impressive.

6th Best

1. Kelly Johnson, Braves
2. Shane Victorino, Phillies
3. Moises Alou, Mets

Comment: Johnson was way under the radar with the season he had last year. He had a .832 OPS at second base, which is great for that position. Victorino and his SBs are not far behind him though and Alou might have been in first if I didn’t think he will be hurt all year.

7th Best

1. Yunel Escobar, Braves
2. Pedro Feliz, Phillies
3. Luis Castillo, Mets

Comment: Escobar is good enough that the Braves had no problems giving up all-star shortstop Edgar Renteria in the offseason. He hit .326 in 319 ABs last year. He is not a power hitter, but could get 40+ doubles this year.

8th Best

1. Carlos Ruiz, Phillies
2. Mark Kotsay, Braves
3. Brian Schneider, Mets

Comment: Ruiz is far and away the best of this bunch - it’ll be interesting to see what he will do this year with the starting spot all to himself.

Bench

1. Phillies (Chris Coste, Greg Dobbs, Jayson Werth, So Taguchi)
2. Mets (Ramon Castro, Marlon Anderson, Endy Chavez, Damion Easley)
3. Braves (Ruben Gotay, Brayan Pena, Martin Prado, Gregor Blanco)

Comment: Both the Mets and Phillies have great benches - I give the edge to the Phillies because their 4 players drove in 156 runs last year, vs. 99 for the Mets guys.

1st Starter

1. Johan Santana, Mets
2. Brett Myers, Phillies
3. John Smoltz, Braves

Comment: Santana is obvious - but I chose Myers over Smoltz because Smoltz is starting the year on the DL and at 40, he might be slowing down. Also, Myers has looked phenomenal in the spring.

2nd Starter

1. Cole Hamels, Phillies
2. Tim Hudson, Braves
3. Pedro Martinez, Mets

Comment: Word is that Pedro has looked great this spring. Considering he’s pitched 160 innings total the last 2 years, I’ll believe it when I see it.

3rd Starter

1. John Maine, Mets
2. Tom Glavine, Braves
3. Jamie Moyer, Phillies

Comment: There is a huge gap here between Maine and the two old lefties. As much as I love Jamie Moyer, I see him having another year flirting with a 5.00 ERA.

4th Starter

1. Oliver Perez, Mets
2. Jair Jurrjens, Braves
3. Kyle Kendrick, Phillies

Comment: Phillies fans don’t think much of Perez because he was always wild when he pitched against us, but he actually finished the year 9th in the NL in ERA. As for Kendrick, I believe he will be in the minor leagues by mid-May.

5th Starter

1. Orlando Hernandez, Mets
2. Adam Eaton, Phillies
3. Mike Hampton, Braves

Comment: I think Kris Benson will probably take this spot when he’s ready - but I have to think Eaton can’t be AS bad as he was last year. As for Hampton, I don’t think he’ll be able to stay healthy, hence his spot at the bottom.

Closer

1. Billy Wagner, Mets
2. Rafael Soriano, Braves
3. Brad Lidge, Philies

Comment: I hate Billy Wagner. He’s a liar and a baby. That’s my comment.

Set-Up Man

1. Peter Moylan, Braves
2. Tom Gordon, Phillies
3. Aaron Heilman, Mets

Comment: Peter who? Moylan had 1.80 ERA last year for the Braves over 90.1 IP, while Heilman had SEVEN losses, which is entirely too many for a reliever.

7th Inning Man

1. J.C. Romero, Phillies
2. Manny Acosta, Braves
3. Pedro Feliciano, Mets

Comment: If Romero can keep his walks down, he can be dominant, as he showed down the stretch for the Phils last year. The Phillies bet $12 million in the offseason that he can.

Rest of Bullpen

1. Mets (Joe Smith, Scott Schoenweis, Jorge Sosa)
2. Phillies (Ryan Madson, Chad Durbin, Clay Condrey)
3. Braves (Blaine Boyer, Chris Resop, Wil Ohman)

Comment: All three of these teams could use some improvement here. Ryan Madson has looked really good in the spring for the Phillies, and it would be a huge boost to the team if he can stay healthy and effective for the entire year.

OVERALL

Let’s go ahead and assign some arbitrary numbers to these rankings and see what we come up with. For the line-ups, bullpen and bench I’ll award 3 points for each 1st place, 2 for 2nd and 1 for 3rd. Since the starting rotation is only 5 players and is extremely important, we’ll award 6 points for each 1st, 4 for 2nd and 2 for 3rd. Here’s what we come up with for that.

Line-Up

T-1. Phillies, 18 points
T-1. Braves, 18 points
    3. Mets, 12 points

Starting Rotation

1. Mets, 26 points
2. Phillies, 18 points
3. Braves, 16 points

Bullpen/Bench

1. Phillies, 11 points
2. Mets, 10 points
3. Braves, 9 points

Overall

1. Mets, 48 points
2. Phillies, 47 points
3. Braves, 43 points

MEANINGFUL CONCLUSIONS

Braves- 3rd Place. I don’t really understand the obsession with the Braves resurgence this year (most of the ESPN analysts have picked them 2nd). They will have an improved line-up even w/o Andruw Jones, and their starting rotation is full of some good names (Smoltz, Glavine, Hudson, Hampton) but Tom Glavine’s last appearance on the mound was the biggest choke of his career, Smoltz is already on the DL and Hampton hasn’t been healthy since 2005.

Phillies- 2nd Place. The Phils have the best offense in the National League and that alone will win them a lot of games. However, 3 through 5 in their rotation absolutely terrifies me. I still can’t understand how Kyle Lohse ended up with the Cardinals for 4.5 million and we couldn’t pony up 7-8 million for one season. A lot also hinges on Brad Lidge coming back healthy, which it looks like he will. Regardless of the question marks, the Phillies have no holes in their line-up and a deep bench in case anyone gets hurt. I think they will win the Wild Card this year.

Mets- 1st place. It’s hard to make an argument against a team that lost the division on the last day of the season and then went out and got the best pitcher in baseball. What sets the Mets apart from the Braves and Phillies is the the combination of a true ace at the top, and depth at the bottom of their rotation. Their offense isn’t quite as good, or deep, but Jose Reyes, David Wright and Carlos Beltran is nothing to scoff at.

Previous Analysis: C, 1B

Opening Day Starter (2003-2008)

           2008- Chase Utley

           2007- Chase Utley

           2006- Chase Utley

           2005- Placido Polanco

           2004- Placido Polanco

           2003- Placido Polanco

2007 Recap

           Chase Utley was the frontrunner to win the NL MVP award before John Lanaan got a little too excited in his first MLB start and popped him in the hand with a fastball. At the time, he was on pace for a historic season for a second basemen. Just how historic? Well, lets take a look - because that’s what I do in my free time.

            Had Utley continued on the pace he was at through 100 games of the season before his injury, and assuming he rested for about 5 games, his numbers would have looked like this: .336 BA, 125 R, 212 H, 65 2B, 5 3B, 27 HR, 130 RBI, 11 SB, .414 OBP, .581 SLG, .995 OPS, 367 Total Bases, 96 Extra-Base Hits.          

            When you look at single season records for 2nd basemen, the rankings usually consists of about 5-10 straight Rogers Hornsby seasons (more on him later) at the top, so you have to take that into account. Below are Utley’s would-be all-time single season rankings, with the number in parentheses representing his ranking if you only count Hornsby once. (Did that make sense at all?)

                     2B - 1st (1st, and 2nd all time, first since 1936 with 60 doubles)

                     RBI - 5th (3rd)

                     SLG - 11th (4th)

                     OPS - 12th (5th)

                     Total Bases - 7th (3rd)

                     Extra-Base Hits - 2nd (2nd)

               Essentially, Utley was on pace for one of the all-time great seasons for a second-basemen, behind only Hornsby and a couple Joe Morgan seasons from the mid-70s. He also might have been able to make a run at the all-time doubles record. Unfortunately, this can only be hypothetical because of that errant pitch that found the back of his hand.

What We Need In ‘08

                This is easy, no analysis needed: we just need Utley healthy. He is the best pure hitter on the team, and with the past two NL MVP’s residing in the same line-up, that’s saying something. He has rare bat speed, which means he can make up for timing issues that might put other players in a long slump. As long as he’s healthy, he’ll produce at a high level. I don’t think it would surpise anyone to see him bring home the city’s 3^rd straight MVP award in 2008.

Second Basemen of the Future? Well, it’s clearly Utley, but the Phillies best offensive prospect in the minors also plays 2^nd base. Adrian Cardenas, 20, has drawn comparisons to Utley because of his great bat. He is a couple years away and may be moved to a different position if he proves he is too good to keep off the field. He is definitely one to keep an eye on in 2008.

NL East 2B Rankings

1. Chase Utley, Phillies
2. Dan Uggla, Marlins
3. Kelly Johnson, Braves
4. Luis Castillo, Mets
5. Ronnie Belliard, Nationals

Top 3 2B in MLB for ‘08

1. Chase Utley, Phillies
2. Brandon Phillips, Reds
3. Robinson Cano, Yankees

Top 3 2B 25 or under for ‘08

1. Cano, 25
2. Howie Kendrick, 24, Angels
3. Rickie Weeks, 25, Brewers

Best Season for a Phillies Second-Baseman: Utley, 2007 (.332 BA, 22 HR, 103 RBI, 48 2B, .566 SLG %, .976 OPS)

Best Season Ever By a Second-Baseman: Rogers Hornsby, St. Louis Cardinals, 1922 (.401 BA, 42 HR, 152 RBI, 250 H, 141 Runs, .722 SLG%, .459 OBP, 450 Total Bases)

            This was just an obscene season by any measure. You think Utley played well this season? Even with the “would-be” Utley numbers, Hornsby had 22 more RBI, almost EIGHTY-THREE more total bases despite the fact Utley would have been chasing the doubles mark, about 150 points higher on slugging percentage alone, 20 more HR, etc, etc.

             Led the NL in 11 categories. 2^nd most total bases in a season in the history of baseball. One of 2 players (Chuck Klein) to put up 150 RBI, 250 H and 140 Runs in a season, but Klein didn’t hit over .400 while doing it. As second basemen go, there is Hornsby, and everyone else. His single season ranks for 2^nd basemen in the 1922 season are as follows:

  - Total Bases - 1st (the closest person not named Hornsby, Alfonso Soriano, is 69 back)

  - RBI- 1st

  - Extra Base Hits - 1st

  - Hits - 1st

  - HR - 2nd (Davey Johnson, 1973 hit 43 for the Braves. Bet you didn’t know that)

  - SLG % - 2nd (behind himself)

  - OPS - 3rd (he holds 8 of the top 9 spots in this category)

  - BA - 3rd (he’s also 2nd and 3rd)

  - Runs- 6th (His 1929 season, 156 runs, is first)

  - OBP - 9th (and 1st-3rd)

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