Entries Tagged 'General' ↓

I was all prepared to write a post about whether or not the Phillies got snubbed with the all-star selections this season until I sat down, turned on my television and was reminded that Adam Eaton still exists (2.2 IP, 10 H, 8 R, 6 ER, 1 BB, 1 SO in an important game) and didn’t feel like writing a full Phillies post anymore, so I thought I’d just do a ramblings.

- On the All-Star game. I can’t remember a year with more undeserving all-stars NOT on the team due to the one-player-per-team rule. Jason Varitek (2nd to last among AL catchers in OPS), Brian Wilson (4.37 ERA as a closer), Ryan Dempster (over Hamels, Santana and Billingsley), Aramis Ramirez (over David Wright), Matt Holliday (10th among NL outfielders in RBI, 38th among NL outfielders in RBI on the road) not to mention the terrible fan vote-ins of Fukudome and Soriano. Just realized that most of those players are in the NL, no wonder they lose every year.

- Another all-star thought - I don’t know if I’ve mentioned it here before or not, but I would like 2 events to be added to HR Derby night. The first would be a “fastest man” competition which would be a timed run from first to third after a ball is pitched to the batter. Fastest time wins. Put Jose Reyes, Carlos Gomez, Hanley Ramirez, Jimmy Rollins, Michael Bourn and Jacoby Ellsbury out there and you’ve got yourself an entertaining competition. The second competition would be for “best arm.” You would determine this by setting up a pitching machine to shoot a line drive to the outfield, the players would charge, grab it on one hop, and then throw at a target at home plate, points would be awarded for accuracy and speed. Josh Hamilton, Ichiro Suzuki, Jose Guillen, Vladimir Guerrero, Shane Victorino? Tell me you wouldn’t want to see that.

- There is a lot of buzz about the Phillies making a charge at Eric Bedard. Phillies scouts have been checking him out and Seattle scouts have been checking out our prospects. I think the rumor I saw had us sending Bastardo, Cardenas andanother prospect. I would do that move in a second, even though Bedard is hurting a bit right now. This team WILL NOT go past the first round of the playoffs without a better rotation, and Bedard would certainly be a big upgrade for this year and next. People forget how dominant he was last year, and you can get him now while his stock is down and hope he benefits from a change of scenery the way Lidge did.

- Speaking of Lidge, I was ecstatic when I saw the news of his extension. Great move to not let him reach the open market, and even though his yearly salary is on the high side, getting a 3 year, not a 4 year deal, was another plus.

- I don’t know what happens to the Sixers if they don’t land Josh Smith. They are clearly waiting until the cap number comes out so they can offer him every penny they possibly can. If they miss, what happens? My vote for a back-up plan would be Ben Gordon, Nenad Krstic and Chris Quinn and save some money for next year.

- One thing that would be great about getting Smith (besides the idea of the constant highlight reel that would be Iggy, Smith, Williams, Thad and Sammy)? You don’t have to worry about the age factor. In baseball, every time you are in a situation where you are offering someone a long-term deal, you have to worry about paying him $15 million when he’s 36 or 37 and you have no idea what his production will be. Josh Smith is 22. You sign him to a 6-year deal and he’ll still be in his prime when it expires.

- If (and it really seems like a matter of when at this point) we sign J-Smoove to an offer sheet, I really, really hope that the Hawks make their decision one way or the other immediately. I won’t be able to sit around refreshing my computer for 7 days waiting for them to decide. That wasn’t meant to be a joke. I will be in physical pain until they decide.

- Eagles training camp starts in a couple weeks, which is just amazing. For those who are new here - Dannie and I both love the Birds and cover them here and there, but don’t go as in depth as we do for basketball and baseball because we aren’t as confident in our opinions. Mostly because football is a game where you can only see certain parts of the play happening and can only see certain players. Without watching game film, I can’t tell you for certain that, for instance, Sheldon Brown is a better cover-corner that Lito Sheppard. Why? Because they are off-screen the whole time and are only mentioned when they make a great or terrible play. So most people get their info on that type of debate by listening to what commentators or talk shows hosts say and taking it for fact without investigating themselves. We really try not to do that here. I mean, can anyone here say that they know that Todd Herremens or Max Jean-Giles is a better run-blocker? Without having someone else who doesn’t really know tell you? Football is a completely different animal in terms of analysis and analytics.

- My gut feeling on the Eagles? I don’t think we are a Super Bowl team, but I think we are a playoff team. I’m excited about the defense. The line should be solid, I think my fellow Domers Victor Abiamiri and Trevor Laws will make an impact. The secondary, if healthy and not being whiny, should also be good. The young linebackers, who I feel like everyone assumes will get better, have to show me they can perform for another year before I’ll have confidence in them. On offense, I’m scared about injuries. If one of our OT’s or Brian Westbrook goes down, it could kill the season. We really, really needed to get one those WR’s though. I really hope we don’t look back at the McNabb/Reid era and wonder what might have been if they only had the guts to make the bold move everyone knows they need to make to go from playoff team to Super Bowl Contender. Right now, I’m going with 10-6 for the Birds, barring training camp developments.

- Villanova basketball landed another huge recruit last week in Isaiah Armwood, a 5-star, 6′7” forward from Maryland. He joins 5-star PG Maalik Wayns, and McDonalds All-American Taylor King (Duke transfer) in Nova’s 2009 class. Jay Wright is also in on several other big-time recruits including 5-star SG Dominic Cheek and 4-star SF Terrell Vinison. This class could very well rival the Fraser, Foye, Ray, Sumpter class of a couple years ago. Once this class is wrapped up, I will write a long post on what Jay Wright has done for the program and why Nova will be a contender for at least the next 4-5 years. During College BBall season, we tend to focus on Nova, St. Joes, Temple, the Big East and I’m sure the occasional UNC post from Dannie.

- One last question for our loyal readers: Do you have a college football team you follow? How closely? With me being a Notre Dame grad, I can’t help but write a post or two about the Irish and I’d like to know what I’m getting into.

I hope so because RSS feeds are the simplest and fastest way to keep up with your favorite websites and blogs. May 1^st has been marked by the blogosphere as RSS Awareness Day. Here is my contribution to the cause.

RSS: The short definition

RSS (Rich Site Summary) is a format for delivering regularly changing web content. Many news-related sites, weblogs and other online publishers syndicate their content as an RSS Feed to whoever wants it. - http://www.whatisrss.com/

For an entertaining plain English video explanation of RSS head over to: http://rssday.org/

The Benefits

• Instead of randomly visiting your favorite websites for updates, RSS tells you exactly when new content has been added. Saving you time and effort.
• RSS feeds allow you to check out headlines of articles so you can determine whether it’s worth reading a story or visiting the website.
• To visit or not to visit, that is the question. With RSS you can read all the content without even going to the actual website.
• Get all your sports news in one location. With the help of an RSS reader you can quickly check out ESPN.com, Philly.com and The Recliner GM all from the comfort of your homepage. Check out my Sixers news page on Google:

Are you reaping the benefits of RSS feeds?

If you aren’t why not start by subscribing to your favorite Philly sports blog ; ) hint, hint. For the rest of you already taking advantage of this technology I assume you already grabbed our feed, right?

From Left to Right (Click on the image to enlarge):

2008 - Kirk Hinrich, Mike Miller, Mike Dunleavy Jr., David Lee, Chris Kaman
1998 - John Stockton, Rex Chapman, Keith Van Horn, Tom Guggliota, Bryant Reeves
1988 - Mark Price, Chris Mullin, Larry Bird, Kevin McHale, Tom Chambers
1978 - Pete Maravich, Rick Barry, Paul Westphal, Dave Cowens, Bill Walton

Honestly, there’s not much to write that this picture doesn’t really say - but as always, I can show some stats:

In 2008 - there are 10 white-boys in the top 125 in scoring
In 1998 - there are 10 white-boys in the top 113 in scoring
In 1988 - there are 10 white-boys in the top 54 in scoring
In 1978 - there are 10 white-boys in the top 40 in scoring

You can do the same with Rebounds and Assists and you will see the same trend.

Now - most people will argue that this trend is because more african-americans and foreigners are playing the game than in the past, making the talent pool a lot deeper now than in the 1970s-1980s. However, I would like to offer a different hypothesis. While the first point is certainly a part of it, I think that the white players are just flat-out getting worse.

Larry Bird, Pete Maravich, Bill Walton, Rick Barry, Kevin McHale - these guys are all better players than what we’ve got today. Bird would be an MVP candidate, Maravich would put up 27 a game, Bill Walton would essentially be Yao Ming. These guys weren’t really good because they were playing against lesser talent, they were really good because they were really good.

So what gives? People will always throw out the “athlete” card, that American-born white-guys can’t keep up with the athletes of the NBA. Certainly true for some, but certainly NOT true for all. I watched nearly every game Allen Iverson played for the Sixers and there were only a handful of defenders who could handle his quickness, two of them were John Stockton and Kirk Hinrich. Josh McRoberts was/is a phenomenal athlete for his size, he just plays way too passive. Chase Budinger has a 40 inch vertical leap and can get his head at the rim. I know we’ve mentioned he’s Canadian, but have you SEEN Steve Nash move around a basketball court? And then, of course, there’s Tom Chambers.

OK - fine. Let’s say we concede that there is an inherent athletic disadvantage for some white guys. Hell, they even made a movie about it. Why aren’t there any white-boys who are OK athletes getting in the MVP talk? Everyone knows Larry Bird wasn’t the best athlete, but he and fellow short-short Kevin McHale won themselves a couple championships.

So what is it? Are young white-boys who might have played basketball in the 80s trending towards Baseball, Lacrosse or Football? Are they pigeon-holing themselves as a “three-point specialist” early in their careers instead of developing their game in other ways. Whatever the reason - they are moving in the wrong direction.

I’m not sure that this trend will stop, but I can hope. A big part of this feature will be looking for that next great player who can bring some respect back to us white-boys. He’s out there - he’s just got to get his act together and step up.

Is this your first time reading the White-Boy Report? Wondering what the hell I’m doing? What is The White-Boy Report?

APRIL 10 - 2008

Welcome to the White-Boy Report!

The White-Boy Report is going to be a recurring feature that keeps an eye on the progress of the American-born white basketball player. They are a dying breed, becoming less and less relevant in the NBA.

The reason why is anyone’s guess - and will remain that way because it is an issue too layered, potentially controversial, and almost impossible to tackle without sounding racist, that no major sports provider will touch it - and neither will I…at least not right now.

The reason for this feature is simple. I love basketball, and one of the things I love most about it is that it is as diverse as any sport - with players from about 70 different countries and Americans with backgrounds from all across the country - all bringing unique styles and culture to the game.

Well, right now, the part of the NBA puzzle that represents my demographic is sucking it up pretty badly. To the point that the best American-born white player ever, Larry Bird, has gone so far as to say “As far as playing, I didn’t care who guarded me -red, yellow, black. I just didn’t want a white guy guarding me, because it’s disrespect to my game.” Thanks Larry, Wally Szczerbiak and I appreciate it.

I am confidant that somewhere, there is someone who can bring some respect back to us, lead his team to a championship, win an MVP (Steve Nash is Canadian, folks) and put an end to the running punch-line that is the American-born white basketball player.

SO - this feature will follow, obviously, the players that are already in the NBA, but also, look over the horizon at the players in the college game, and the players being recruited out of high school. We will look at the success stories (Chris Kaman, I guess?), embarrassing failures (Nice work, Adam Morrison) and the up-and-comers (turn that fat into muscle, Kevin Love!).

And as a final note, to be perfectly clear, this is not about “taking the back the game” or anything horrendously, or even slightly, racist. It’s about giving young white boys hope that they can one day make the NBA, and not have to look like Ashton Kutcher, or play in Utah, to get attention.

NOTE: Since this is going to be a recurring feature, I would like to make a banner. Any suggestions as to who should be on it?

Coming Up in the White-Boy Report

- State of the White-Boy: From Jerry West to Mike Dunleavy Jr. The statistical decline currently in it’s 4th decade

- NBA Draft Previews: Kevin Love, Chase Budinger, Joe Alexander, Tyler Hansborough - what’s the upside? - and - is there anything TV Analysts like to do more than argue how white-boy’s games translate to the pros, without actually pointing out the guy is white?

The White Boy Report will also be featured over at Hoops State of Mind

Thought I’d get these out there before we get into the season. The only change from my MLB Preview is that I’ve swapped the Angels and Mariners due to the injuries to Kelvim Escobar and John Lackey. In all honestly, I want to pick the Dodgers for the NL Wild Card over the Phillies, but I’ve always said once the Phillies make it over the hump and make the playoffs, I’ll have a lot more faith they can make it again, so I’m going to stick with that.

NL East

1. New York Mets
2. Philadelphia Phillies*
3. Atlanta Braves
4. Washington Nationals
5. Florida Marlins

NL Central

1. Chicago Cubs
2. Cincinnati Reds
3. Milwaukee Brewers
4. Houston Astros
5. Pittsburgh Pirates
6. St. Louis Cardinals

NL West

1. Arizona Diamondbacks
2. Los Angeles Dodgers
3. Colorado Rockies
4. San Diego Padres
5. San Francisco Giants

AL East

1. Boston Red Sox
2. New York Yankees
3. Toronto Blue Jays
4. Tampa Bay Rays
5. Baltimore Orioles

AL Central

1. Detroit Tigers
2. Cleveland Indians*
3. Chicago White Sox
4. Minnesota Twins
5. Kansas City Royals

AL West

1. Seattle Mariners
2. Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
3. Oakland Athletics
4. Texas Rangers

Playoffs

Division Series

Diamondbacks over Phillies
Mets over Cubs

Indians over Red Sox
Tigers over Mariners

Championship Series

Mets over Diamondbacks
Tigers over Indians

World Series

Tigers over Mets

Regular Season Awards

NL MVP - David Wright, Mets
AL MVP - Miguel Cabrera, Tigers

NL Cy Young - Johan Santana, Mets
AL Cy Young - Eric Bedard, Mariners

NL Rookie of the Year - Kosuke Fukudome, Cubs
AL Rookie of the Year - Evan Longoria, Rays

I know it’s just Opening Day, and it only counts for one game - but the Phillies inability to play decent baseball out of the chute EVERY year drives me absolutely crazy. The last 2 years, they have started off 1-6 and spent much of the start of the season just scratching to get back to .500. Hence, the team is always playing catch-up until their yearly August/September surge. Since 1995, they have only ONCE started the first 4 games at or better than 3-1. Here are their starts since 1995:

2007: 1-6
2006: 1-6
2005: 1-3
2004: 1-6
2003: 2-2
2002: 2-2
2001: 3-1
2000: 1-3
1999: 2-2
1998: 1-3
1997: 1-4
1996: 2-2
1995: 2-2

Anybody have any theories? I always thought it was the managers’ job to get the players ready for the start of the season, but this trend has continued over several managers. Another thought is the inability to adjust to the cold weather after spending the spring in Florida, but it’s not like we are the only team doing that. I’m more or less convinced this is part of a city-wide conspiracy to drive me legally insane. (Note: As I’m typing this, Jayson Werth just walked to start off the 7th - I’m hoping I can delete this entire post before all is said and done) (Awesome Update: J-Roll just tied it with a 2-run homer. Like I said, he may have a down year this year) (That’s More Like It Update: Thanks Tom Gordon - I appreciate it. Second straight year a pitcher has blown it in the 9th to start the season.)

Explanation of ratings system and other team previews here

I decided to change it up a little bit for the last 3 teams of MLB Preview - The Mets, Braves and Phillies. Since this is a Philly blog, people are most interested in how these 3 teams stack up in what should be one of the closest division races in baseball. What I’m going to do is rank their players, not by position, but by “best hitter vs. best hitter,” “2nd best hitter vs. 2nd best hitter,” etc… Then, at the end, I plan to come to some sort of logical and meaningful conclusion.

Best Hitter

1. Ryan Howard, Phillies
2. David Wright, Mets
3. Chipper Jones, Braves

Comment: Howard and Wright are neck and neck, but the way Howard has been hitting this spring, I expect we will see the 2006 version of Howard.

2nd Best

1. Mark Teixeira, Braves
2. Chase Utley, Phillies
3. Carlos Beltran, Mets

Comment: How well did Teixeira play after coming over the Braves? Well, if he hits at the rate he did in his 56 games for the team, he will hit .317 with 51 HR and 168 RBI over a full season. Wow.

3rd Best

1. Jimmy Rollins, Phillies
2. Jose Reyes, Mets
3. Jeff Francouer, Braves

Comment: I’m going to give the reigning NL MVP the benefit of the doubt, but I could see him having a slightly disappointing season this year.

4th Best

1. Brian McCann, Braves
2. Pat Burrell, Phillies
3. Carlos Delgado, Mets

Comment: McCann is due for a breakout year, we know what we will get from Burrell (.270, 30 HR, 95 RBI) and Delgado has a lot of injuries to recover from before he’s going to be a productive hitter.

5th Best

1. Ryan Church, Mets
2. Matt Diaz, Braves
3. Geoff Jenkins, Phillies

Comment: I actually like the acquisition of Church for the Mets (though they might regret losing Lastings Milledge in the long run). Church’s 43 doubles in 470 ABs last year is very impressive.

6th Best

1. Kelly Johnson, Braves
2. Shane Victorino, Phillies
3. Moises Alou, Mets

Comment: Johnson was way under the radar with the season he had last year. He had a .832 OPS at second base, which is great for that position. Victorino and his SBs are not far behind him though and Alou might have been in first if I didn’t think he will be hurt all year.

7th Best

1. Yunel Escobar, Braves
2. Pedro Feliz, Phillies
3. Luis Castillo, Mets

Comment: Escobar is good enough that the Braves had no problems giving up all-star shortstop Edgar Renteria in the offseason. He hit .326 in 319 ABs last year. He is not a power hitter, but could get 40+ doubles this year.

8th Best

1. Carlos Ruiz, Phillies
2. Mark Kotsay, Braves
3. Brian Schneider, Mets

Comment: Ruiz is far and away the best of this bunch - it’ll be interesting to see what he will do this year with the starting spot all to himself.

Bench

1. Phillies (Chris Coste, Greg Dobbs, Jayson Werth, So Taguchi)
2. Mets (Ramon Castro, Marlon Anderson, Endy Chavez, Damion Easley)
3. Braves (Ruben Gotay, Brayan Pena, Martin Prado, Gregor Blanco)

Comment: Both the Mets and Phillies have great benches - I give the edge to the Phillies because their 4 players drove in 156 runs last year, vs. 99 for the Mets guys.

1st Starter

1. Johan Santana, Mets
2. Brett Myers, Phillies
3. John Smoltz, Braves

Comment: Santana is obvious - but I chose Myers over Smoltz because Smoltz is starting the year on the DL and at 40, he might be slowing down. Also, Myers has looked phenomenal in the spring.

2nd Starter

1. Cole Hamels, Phillies
2. Tim Hudson, Braves
3. Pedro Martinez, Mets

Comment: Word is that Pedro has looked great this spring. Considering he’s pitched 160 innings total the last 2 years, I’ll believe it when I see it.

3rd Starter

1. John Maine, Mets
2. Tom Glavine, Braves
3. Jamie Moyer, Phillies

Comment: There is a huge gap here between Maine and the two old lefties. As much as I love Jamie Moyer, I see him having another year flirting with a 5.00 ERA.

4th Starter

1. Oliver Perez, Mets
2. Jair Jurrjens, Braves
3. Kyle Kendrick, Phillies

Comment: Phillies fans don’t think much of Perez because he was always wild when he pitched against us, but he actually finished the year 9th in the NL in ERA. As for Kendrick, I believe he will be in the minor leagues by mid-May.

5th Starter

1. Orlando Hernandez, Mets
2. Adam Eaton, Phillies
3. Mike Hampton, Braves

Comment: I think Kris Benson will probably take this spot when he’s ready - but I have to think Eaton can’t be AS bad as he was last year. As for Hampton, I don’t think he’ll be able to stay healthy, hence his spot at the bottom.

Closer

1. Billy Wagner, Mets
2. Rafael Soriano, Braves
3. Brad Lidge, Philies

Comment: I hate Billy Wagner. He’s a liar and a baby. That’s my comment.

Set-Up Man

1. Peter Moylan, Braves
2. Tom Gordon, Phillies
3. Aaron Heilman, Mets

Comment: Peter who? Moylan had 1.80 ERA last year for the Braves over 90.1 IP, while Heilman had SEVEN losses, which is entirely too many for a reliever.

7th Inning Man

1. J.C. Romero, Phillies
2. Manny Acosta, Braves
3. Pedro Feliciano, Mets

Comment: If Romero can keep his walks down, he can be dominant, as he showed down the stretch for the Phils last year. The Phillies bet $12 million in the offseason that he can.

Rest of Bullpen

1. Mets (Joe Smith, Scott Schoenweis, Jorge Sosa)
2. Phillies (Ryan Madson, Chad Durbin, Clay Condrey)
3. Braves (Blaine Boyer, Chris Resop, Wil Ohman)

Comment: All three of these teams could use some improvement here. Ryan Madson has looked really good in the spring for the Phillies, and it would be a huge boost to the team if he can stay healthy and effective for the entire year.

OVERALL

Let’s go ahead and assign some arbitrary numbers to these rankings and see what we come up with. For the line-ups, bullpen and bench I’ll award 3 points for each 1st place, 2 for 2nd and 1 for 3rd. Since the starting rotation is only 5 players and is extremely important, we’ll award 6 points for each 1st, 4 for 2nd and 2 for 3rd. Here’s what we come up with for that.

Line-Up

T-1. Phillies, 18 points
T-1. Braves, 18 points
    3. Mets, 12 points

Starting Rotation

1. Mets, 26 points
2. Phillies, 18 points
3. Braves, 16 points

Bullpen/Bench

1. Phillies, 11 points
2. Mets, 10 points
3. Braves, 9 points

Overall

1. Mets, 48 points
2. Phillies, 47 points
3. Braves, 43 points

MEANINGFUL CONCLUSIONS

Braves- 3rd Place. I don’t really understand the obsession with the Braves resurgence this year (most of the ESPN analysts have picked them 2nd). They will have an improved line-up even w/o Andruw Jones, and their starting rotation is full of some good names (Smoltz, Glavine, Hudson, Hampton) but Tom Glavine’s last appearance on the mound was the biggest choke of his career, Smoltz is already on the DL and Hampton hasn’t been healthy since 2005.

Phillies- 2nd Place. The Phils have the best offense in the National League and that alone will win them a lot of games. However, 3 through 5 in their rotation absolutely terrifies me. I still can’t understand how Kyle Lohse ended up with the Cardinals for 4.5 million and we couldn’t pony up 7-8 million for one season. A lot also hinges on Brad Lidge coming back healthy, which it looks like he will. Regardless of the question marks, the Phillies have no holes in their line-up and a deep bench in case anyone gets hurt. I think they will win the Wild Card this year.

Mets- 1st place. It’s hard to make an argument against a team that lost the division on the last day of the season and then went out and got the best pitcher in baseball. What sets the Mets apart from the Braves and Phillies is the the combination of a true ace at the top, and depth at the bottom of their rotation. Their offense isn’t quite as good, or deep, but Jose Reyes, David Wright and Carlos Beltran is nothing to scoff at.

Explanation of ratings system and other team previews here

FLORIDA MARLINS

Ranks

Overall – 67 points (27th MLB, 16th NL)
Starting Rotation – 23 points (25th MLB, 14th NL)
Line-Up – 30 points (24th MLB, 13th NL)
Bench/Bullpen/Defense – 14 points (T-22nd MLB, T-13th NL)

Offseason Additions – Cameron Maybin, Andrew Miller, Mark Hendrickson,
Offseason Subtractions – Dontrelle Willis, Miguel Cabrera, Armando Benitez

Biggest Strength-  Hanley Ramirez

The Red Sox won the World Series last year with Josh Beckett taking home the Series MVP. Many argued that their 3B Mike Lowell should have gotten substantial votes for the regular season MVP. With that said, it can easily be argued that the Marlins got the best player in the deal when they traded away those two players for Hanley Ramirez. Hanley Ramirez is better than Jose Reyes, by a lot. He is better than Jimmy Rollins, by a little. Here are some fun facts from Hanley’s 2007 season:

1. Only player in MLB history to .330 with 50 SB and 20 HR.
2. Had the highest OPS for a SS (.948) since A-Rod moved to 3rd Base.
3. Joined Ty Cobb (1911), Tris Speaker (1912) and George Sisler (1922) as the only players to have a SLG% over .560 while being fast enough to steal 50+ bases and score 125+. Ramirez, at 23, was the youngest of the 4.
4. He’s good - real good. And 3 years away from his prime.

Biggest Weakness- Starting Rotation

The Marlins traded away their only recognizable pitcher in Dontrelle Willis this off-season and now, like the Nationals, their rotation is a collection of no-names. Unlike the Nationals though, some of their no-names have a very high ceiling. Andrew Miller, Ricky Nolasco, and Scott Olsen all have good potential, particularly Miller, but I doubt they are ready to break out this year. Former Philadelphia Sixers draft-pick Mark Hendrickson is their #1 starter. Thanks for coming out guys.

Key Player in ’08– Jeremy Hermida

When Jeremy Hermida came up from the minors, the Marlins expected him to be a Justin Morneau type talent. However, a rash of injuries and sub-par play has delayed his growth. But after the all-star break last year, Hermida showed signs of waking up, hitting .340 with a .550 slugging %. He’s only 24, and if he can continue what he started last fall, the Marlins will have a much needed hitter in the 4-spot.

Player to Keep an Eye On– Andrew Miller

Miller was a key piece in the Willis/Cabrera swap. Thought by many to be the best prospect in the 2006 draft, he fell to the Tigers after a couple teams balked at his contract demands. Miller is slightly reminiscent of Randy Johnson. He is a tall lefty with a 94+ fastball and a really good slider. He’s probably not ready for the big time just yet, but it will be interesting to see how he progresses this year.

2008 Outlook: 5th Place, NL East. The Marlins have had 2 World Series titles while I’ve been alive, the Phillies/Sixers/Eagles have 0. Each time they’ve won those World Series, they’ve followed it up by trading every good player on their team, alienating their bandwagon fanbase, and playing in from of empty stadiums.  So really, as much as I like Hanley Ramirez and Andrew Miller, I really hope they kind of suck for awhile.

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Explanation of ratings system and other team previews here

WASHINGTON NATIONALS

Ranks

Overall – 69 points (24th MLB, 14nd NL)
Starting Rotation – 21 points (29th MLB, 16th NL)
Line-Up – 31 points (22nd MLB, 12th NL)
Bench/Bullpen/Defense – 17 points (T-3rd MLB, T-1st NL)

Offseason Additions – Aaron Boone, Tyler Clippard, Johnny Estrada, Paul LoDuca, Rob Mackowiak, Lastings Milledge, Elijah Dukes
Offseason Subtractions – Tony Batista, Ryan Church, Nook Logan, Brian Schneider

Biggest Strength-  Nationals Park

First of all, kudos to the Nationals for not (yet) selling the rights to name their stadium, for making the first “green” stadium in the country, and for having possibly the coolest backdrop to an outfield, the Capital Building and Washington Monument. That being said, it’s not the stadium that will help the Nats this year, its the fact that there will be PEOPLE there. The last time the Nationals played in front of large crowds was their inagural year in 2005. Going from no crowd to a big crowd can pump a team up, and it showed, with the team starting off 52-36 before finally playing to it’s talent level later in the season. I wouldn’t be surprised to see a similar hot start this season.

Biggest Weakness- Starting Rotation

I started writing about the lack of a big power hitter in this line-up, but when I went to look at the Nationals depth chart on espn.com, it showed Odalis Perez as their #1 starter. This has to be a misprint, right? RIGHT? Even if it isn’t - their is not a single starter on the team (Perez, Jason Bergmann, Matt Chico, John Lannan and Tim Redding) that would be in the Top 4 of a playoff contender. One or two of them will likely surprise, but it’s likely that their very good bullpen will get A LOT of work this season.

Key Player in ’08– Ryan Zimmerman

Zimmerman is the closest thing that the Nationals have to a franchise player. However, he followed his very impressive rookie campaign by taking a step back in 2007, hitting .266 with 24 HR and 91 RBI. He is primarily a doubles hitter and a phenomenal defender, but he needs to step up this season and hit for a better average and more power - the Nationals need a big threat in the middle of their line-up.

Player to Keep an Eye On– Lastings Milledge

Milledge went from being absolutely un-tradable, to being dumped for Ryan Church and Brian Schneider in the matter of a year. Did he somehow become less talented in that year - or did the Mets decide he had character issues they didn’t want to deal with? Who knows. But the bottom line is Milledge is only 22, and talent doesn’t just vanish into thin air. Milledge will get his first chance to start everyday and will have a huge chip on his shoulder to prove the Mets wrong. I wouldn’t be surprised if people look back on this trade much like the historically horrendous Victor Zambrano - Scott Kazmir swap.

2008 Outlook: 4th Place, NL East. The Nationals don’t have any big name players on their team, but they are always a tough team to face. They have one of the best bullpen’s in majors and a decent line-up. If they can ride the emotion of opening a new stadium in front of large crowds, I think they could replicate their 81-81 record of 2005. However, their rotation is too weak for them to do much more.

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ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS

Ranks

Overall – 82 points (7th MLB, 2nd NL)
Starting Rotation – 33 points (4th MLB, 1st NL)
Line-Up – 33 points (12th MLB, 7th NL)
Bench/Bullpen/Defense – 16 points (T-5th MLB, T-3rd NL)

Offseason Additions – Dan Haren, Chad Qualls, Billy Buckner (seriously)
Offseason Subtractions – Tony Clark, Livan Hernandez, Carlos Quentin, Jose Valverde

Biggest Strength- Brandon Webb and Dan Haren

In Webb and Haren, I believe that the Diamondbacks have the best 1-2 punch in the major leagues. Both are on the right side of their primes (Webb is 28, Haren is 27), both are very reliable (Webb averaged 233 inning over the last 3 years, Haren averaged 221) and both are dominant (Webb had a 3.01 ERA last year, Haren had a 3.07). While not quite as good as Johnson/Schilling, these two will have the same affect on the team, giving them a distinct advantage in 40% of their games.

Biggest Weakness- Young Offense

The Diamondbacks won their division last year despite being OUTSCORED and having essentially the same run differential as the 76 win, 86 loss, Oakland A’s. They are loaded with talented young hitters such as Stephen Drew, Justin Upton, Conor Jackson, Mark Reynolds and Chris Young. However, they can’t count on doing it with smoke and mirrors again this year. Some of these players are going to have to step up. Picking a team to make the playoffs that has Eric Byrnes as it’s best offensive player scares me a little bit. With that said…

Key Player in ’08– Conor Jackson

You could really put any of those young guys here, but based on 2007 numbers, I’m guessing that Jackson has the best chance to break out. He was 2nd to Mark Reynolds on the team in OPS (.836) despite not striking out very much (50 Ks in 477 PA). He has decent pop and could approach 30 HR and 90-100 RBI. This will be his 3rd full year in the league, and at 25, he’s at an age and service time where many hitters make that next step. But if he doesn’t, who knows, maybe it will be…

Player to Keep an Eye On– Justin Upton

Upton was called up to big leagues last year as a teenager. At 19, he was nearly 2 years younger than anyone else in NL. At the time of his call-up, he was doing pretty well in AA. How well? Well - if you took the numbers he was putting up and extrapolate them over a normal MLB season, they would have looked like this: .309 BA, 111 Runs, 39 2B, 9 3B, 30 HR, 122 RBI, 23 SB, .955 OPS. For a 19 year old SS? That’s completely ridiculous. Upton certainly has the biggest ceiling of any of the young D-Backs, but it will likely take him awhile to get there (though the .360 he’s hitting in spring training might suggest otherwise). When he does, he will probably be the best SS in the majors. (Editors Note: He will play RF in the majors - so it will be difficult for him to be the best SS. But he’ll still be really good - you get the point)

2008 Outlook: 1st Place, NL West. I think that Diamondbacks will win about 70% of the games that Webb and Haren pitch, and that their offense, bullpen and the intangibles (defense, managing) that won them games last year will do enough to win 50% of the games they don’t. That’ll put them at about 93 wins and at the top of this division. If Stephen Drew, Mark Reynolds and the rest of the young snakes all break-out, this team will be unstoppable.

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