Entries Tagged 'Jimmy Rollins' ↓

Explanation of ratings system and other team previews here

I decided to change it up a little bit for the last 3 teams of MLB Preview - The Mets, Braves and Phillies. Since this is a Philly blog, people are most interested in how these 3 teams stack up in what should be one of the closest division races in baseball. What I’m going to do is rank their players, not by position, but by “best hitter vs. best hitter,” “2nd best hitter vs. 2nd best hitter,” etc… Then, at the end, I plan to come to some sort of logical and meaningful conclusion.

Best Hitter

1. Ryan Howard, Phillies
2. David Wright, Mets
3. Chipper Jones, Braves

Comment: Howard and Wright are neck and neck, but the way Howard has been hitting this spring, I expect we will see the 2006 version of Howard.

2nd Best

1. Mark Teixeira, Braves
2. Chase Utley, Phillies
3. Carlos Beltran, Mets

Comment: How well did Teixeira play after coming over the Braves? Well, if he hits at the rate he did in his 56 games for the team, he will hit .317 with 51 HR and 168 RBI over a full season. Wow.

3rd Best

1. Jimmy Rollins, Phillies
2. Jose Reyes, Mets
3. Jeff Francouer, Braves

Comment: I’m going to give the reigning NL MVP the benefit of the doubt, but I could see him having a slightly disappointing season this year.

4th Best

1. Brian McCann, Braves
2. Pat Burrell, Phillies
3. Carlos Delgado, Mets

Comment: McCann is due for a breakout year, we know what we will get from Burrell (.270, 30 HR, 95 RBI) and Delgado has a lot of injuries to recover from before he’s going to be a productive hitter.

5th Best

1. Ryan Church, Mets
2. Matt Diaz, Braves
3. Geoff Jenkins, Phillies

Comment: I actually like the acquisition of Church for the Mets (though they might regret losing Lastings Milledge in the long run). Church’s 43 doubles in 470 ABs last year is very impressive.

6th Best

1. Kelly Johnson, Braves
2. Shane Victorino, Phillies
3. Moises Alou, Mets

Comment: Johnson was way under the radar with the season he had last year. He had a .832 OPS at second base, which is great for that position. Victorino and his SBs are not far behind him though and Alou might have been in first if I didn’t think he will be hurt all year.

7th Best

1. Yunel Escobar, Braves
2. Pedro Feliz, Phillies
3. Luis Castillo, Mets

Comment: Escobar is good enough that the Braves had no problems giving up all-star shortstop Edgar Renteria in the offseason. He hit .326 in 319 ABs last year. He is not a power hitter, but could get 40+ doubles this year.

8th Best

1. Carlos Ruiz, Phillies
2. Mark Kotsay, Braves
3. Brian Schneider, Mets

Comment: Ruiz is far and away the best of this bunch - it’ll be interesting to see what he will do this year with the starting spot all to himself.

Bench

1. Phillies (Chris Coste, Greg Dobbs, Jayson Werth, So Taguchi)
2. Mets (Ramon Castro, Marlon Anderson, Endy Chavez, Damion Easley)
3. Braves (Ruben Gotay, Brayan Pena, Martin Prado, Gregor Blanco)

Comment: Both the Mets and Phillies have great benches - I give the edge to the Phillies because their 4 players drove in 156 runs last year, vs. 99 for the Mets guys.

1st Starter

1. Johan Santana, Mets
2. Brett Myers, Phillies
3. John Smoltz, Braves

Comment: Santana is obvious - but I chose Myers over Smoltz because Smoltz is starting the year on the DL and at 40, he might be slowing down. Also, Myers has looked phenomenal in the spring.

2nd Starter

1. Cole Hamels, Phillies
2. Tim Hudson, Braves
3. Pedro Martinez, Mets

Comment: Word is that Pedro has looked great this spring. Considering he’s pitched 160 innings total the last 2 years, I’ll believe it when I see it.

3rd Starter

1. John Maine, Mets
2. Tom Glavine, Braves
3. Jamie Moyer, Phillies

Comment: There is a huge gap here between Maine and the two old lefties. As much as I love Jamie Moyer, I see him having another year flirting with a 5.00 ERA.

4th Starter

1. Oliver Perez, Mets
2. Jair Jurrjens, Braves
3. Kyle Kendrick, Phillies

Comment: Phillies fans don’t think much of Perez because he was always wild when he pitched against us, but he actually finished the year 9th in the NL in ERA. As for Kendrick, I believe he will be in the minor leagues by mid-May.

5th Starter

1. Orlando Hernandez, Mets
2. Adam Eaton, Phillies
3. Mike Hampton, Braves

Comment: I think Kris Benson will probably take this spot when he’s ready - but I have to think Eaton can’t be AS bad as he was last year. As for Hampton, I don’t think he’ll be able to stay healthy, hence his spot at the bottom.

Closer

1. Billy Wagner, Mets
2. Rafael Soriano, Braves
3. Brad Lidge, Philies

Comment: I hate Billy Wagner. He’s a liar and a baby. That’s my comment.

Set-Up Man

1. Peter Moylan, Braves
2. Tom Gordon, Phillies
3. Aaron Heilman, Mets

Comment: Peter who? Moylan had 1.80 ERA last year for the Braves over 90.1 IP, while Heilman had SEVEN losses, which is entirely too many for a reliever.

7th Inning Man

1. J.C. Romero, Phillies
2. Manny Acosta, Braves
3. Pedro Feliciano, Mets

Comment: If Romero can keep his walks down, he can be dominant, as he showed down the stretch for the Phils last year. The Phillies bet $12 million in the offseason that he can.

Rest of Bullpen

1. Mets (Joe Smith, Scott Schoenweis, Jorge Sosa)
2. Phillies (Ryan Madson, Chad Durbin, Clay Condrey)
3. Braves (Blaine Boyer, Chris Resop, Wil Ohman)

Comment: All three of these teams could use some improvement here. Ryan Madson has looked really good in the spring for the Phillies, and it would be a huge boost to the team if he can stay healthy and effective for the entire year.

OVERALL

Let’s go ahead and assign some arbitrary numbers to these rankings and see what we come up with. For the line-ups, bullpen and bench I’ll award 3 points for each 1st place, 2 for 2nd and 1 for 3rd. Since the starting rotation is only 5 players and is extremely important, we’ll award 6 points for each 1st, 4 for 2nd and 2 for 3rd. Here’s what we come up with for that.

Line-Up

T-1. Phillies, 18 points
T-1. Braves, 18 points
    3. Mets, 12 points

Starting Rotation

1. Mets, 26 points
2. Phillies, 18 points
3. Braves, 16 points

Bullpen/Bench

1. Phillies, 11 points
2. Mets, 10 points
3. Braves, 9 points

Overall

1. Mets, 48 points
2. Phillies, 47 points
3. Braves, 43 points

MEANINGFUL CONCLUSIONS

Braves- 3rd Place. I don’t really understand the obsession with the Braves resurgence this year (most of the ESPN analysts have picked them 2nd). They will have an improved line-up even w/o Andruw Jones, and their starting rotation is full of some good names (Smoltz, Glavine, Hudson, Hampton) but Tom Glavine’s last appearance on the mound was the biggest choke of his career, Smoltz is already on the DL and Hampton hasn’t been healthy since 2005.

Phillies- 2nd Place. The Phils have the best offense in the National League and that alone will win them a lot of games. However, 3 through 5 in their rotation absolutely terrifies me. I still can’t understand how Kyle Lohse ended up with the Cardinals for 4.5 million and we couldn’t pony up 7-8 million for one season. A lot also hinges on Brad Lidge coming back healthy, which it looks like he will. Regardless of the question marks, the Phillies have no holes in their line-up and a deep bench in case anyone gets hurt. I think they will win the Wild Card this year.

Mets- 1st place. It’s hard to make an argument against a team that lost the division on the last day of the season and then went out and got the best pitcher in baseball. What sets the Mets apart from the Braves and Phillies is the the combination of a true ace at the top, and depth at the bottom of their rotation. Their offense isn’t quite as good, or deep, but Jose Reyes, David Wright and Carlos Beltran is nothing to scoff at.

Previous Analysis: C, 1B, 2B

Opening Day Starter (2003-2008)

     2008 - Jimmy Rollins
     2007 - Jimmy Rollins
     2006 - Jimmy Rollins
     2005 - Jimmy Rollins
     2004 - Jimmy Rollins
     2003 - Jimmy Rollins

2007 Recap

      It’s been fun doing the last 3 position analyses, because the Phillies are currently sporting their best 1B, 2B and SS in team history. If we had a 3B who could stand up straight, I might have been able to write a post arguing we have the best infield in major league history. 
       Before we get (briefly) into the Jimmy Rollins/Matt Holliday MVP debate, I want to point out where Rollins’ season ranks all-time among SS. Last post, I talked about how Utley COULD have had an all-time season, but in this case, Rollins DID.

Single Season Ranks All-Time Among SS

      Extra Base Hits - 2nd
      Triples - 2nd
      Runs - 3rd
      Total Bases - 4th
      Hits - 12th

      As for the MVP, there were many people who thought the Rockies’ Matt Holliday deserved the award. These people are not idiots, but I do disagree with them. Here are my 3 main points.

1. Unique Season - Showing a rarely seen blend of power, speed and base running, Rollins was the only player in MLB history to have 200 H, 130 R, 30 HR and 40 SB in a season. He, along with Curtis Granderson, became the 2nd and 3rd players to ever have 20 HR, 2B, 3B and SB in a season.
2. Coors Field - Both Holliday and Rollins played in hitter-friendly parks. When you look at them on an even playing field, the road, their numbers are not that much different. (Rollins’ numbers are on top, Holliday’s on the bottom)

          Rollins had 17 more runs, 15 more hits, 10 more extra-base hits, a higher SLG% and the same OPS. The only thing Holliday had him on was RBI, BA and OBP. Holliday’s SLG% on the road was 40th in the NL, behind non-MVP candidates Cliff Floyd, Kelly Johnson, Jayson Werth, Corey Hart, etc etc…

3. Intangibles - Rollins had 94 RBI from the LEAD-OFF position, he won a Gold Glove at a far more important defensive position, was one of the best base runners in the league and both teams finished with pretty much the same record. He also made fewer bad outs, with 41 less strikeouts and 12 less double-play balls (in far more ABs, mind you.)

You can make the case for Holliday, but the right man won.

 What We Need in ‘08

          Jimmy Rollins has a way of creating expectations. Last year, after the can’t-miss acquisition of Freddy Garcia, he famously called the Phillies “the team to beat in the NL East.” Turned out he was right - about the 2nd part atleast. This off-season, he has already said that this team will “win 100 games” this year and that the new goal he has set for himself is to become “one of the greatest of all-time.” So for ‘08? We just need Jimmy to be as correct in his predictions as he was last year.

SS of the Future? Rollins isn’t going anywhere anytime soon, but the best SS prospect in our system is Jason Donald. He hit over .300 with 71 RBI, 31 2B, 8 3B and 12 HR last year in 130 games in A-ball.

NL East SS Rankings

1. Jimmy Rollins, Phillies
2. Hanley Ramirez, Marlins
3. Jose Reyes, Mets
4. Yunel Escobar, Braves
5. Cristian Guzman, Nationals

Top 3 SS for MLB for ‘08

1. Jimmy Rollins, Phillies
2. Hanley Ramirez, Marlins
3. Derek Jeter, Yankees

Top 3 SS 25 or under for ‘08

1. Ramirez, Marlins, 24
2. Troy Tulowitzki, Rockies, 23
3. Reyes, Mets, 24

Best Season for a Phillies SS: Rollins, 2007 (.296 BA, 30 HR, 94 RBI, 38 2B, 20 3B, 41 SB, .531 SLG %, .875 OPS, Gold Glove, MVP)

Best Season Ever for a SS: Alex Rodriguez, Seattle Mariners, 1996 (.358 BA, 141 Runs, 215 Hits, 54 2B, 36 HR, 123 RBI, 15 SB, .414 OBP, .631 SLG%, 1.045 OPS)

A-Rod might have had better power numbers at short during other seasons, but this one is the best because he did things that at the time, no one had seen a SS, or a 20-year old, do before. This season revolutionized the position and showed that it was possible to be athletic enough to handle the toughest defensive position on the field and still put up great offensive numbers. At age 20, he won the batting title, while scoring more runs, hitting more doubles and accumulating more total bases than anyone in the AL.

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