Shortly after reportedly declining a $3.9M per season deal, the Sixers stepped up to the plate and signed Louis Williams to a 5-year contract.
The 76ers agreed to terms today with restricted free agent guard Louis Williams on a 5-year contract. - Philly.com
Philly.com is not reporting any terms of the contract, but I just saw Derrick Gunn on Comcast SportsNite say the deal is reportedly worth $25 million over the 5 years.
So it looks like the negotiations are picking up at a rapid pace now. Sixers made an initial offer, Louis and his agent pushed back, and they agreed shortly after. Very good to see this. All along I have expected Sweet Lou to get signed before Andre Iguodala because the money is bigger with Iguodala.
If Derrick Gunn is right about the monetary value of the contract, are you cool with Lou getting an average of $5 million per season? I am! He is as good as Chris Duhon (better than Duhon really) and Sasha Vujacic, which likely were the comparables Merle Scott, Williams’ agent, was using to get this deal done.
No all that’s left is signing Iguodala, and we can all start committing to partial and season tickets.
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Everyday I read another Sixers fan complaining about the time it’s taking to sign Andre Iguodala and Louis Williams. As a fanatic as well I too understand the anxiety of not having two of the team’s best players not signed this late into the off-season. With that said I also fully understand WHY this is the case. When you think about the situation from the point of view of why, it gives, at least for me, some piece of mind.
I have little doubt that both players will be signed and ready to go before training camp. This summer’s free agent market has just been a bear for restricted free agents and their respective teams. Here are some things to consider before you go off on a rant as to what the hell Ed Stefanski and the Sixers are doing.
Top 3 Reason Iguodala and Williams haven’t been signed
1. No offers from other teams and therefore no 7-day time frame to respond.
This is the biggest reason nothing has gotten done. Teams with restricted free agents typically wait for another team to set the market price for their restricted players. But this season, with all the big money swallowed up by the unrestricted players, that left the restricted guys out in the cold.
The 7-day response deadline serves as a built in pressure cooker to speed up the process. So far Stefanski and the Sixers have felt no pressure to get a deal done quickly. All that was needed was one offer and we would be past this; instead the negotiations drag on.
Will a foreign team come in and make an offer to Andre Iguodala or Louis Williams? Maybe. It really depends on the conversations between them and their agents. Are they looking overseas to put pressure on the Sixers? Is there a team out there willing to pay Iguodala $13M+ per year to play overseas? I doubt it. But I think if that were to happen the Sixers would react and at least match the offer from a team outside the U.S. for either player.
2. No comparable restricted players have been signed (until now)
Prior to the Monta Ellis signing last week and the Andres Biedrins signing that should be final today that is (more on this in my next post). Basically there has been NO market at all for restricted players, making evaluating a player’s worth that much tougher. The Sixers should be evaluating how much Lou and Iguodala are worth to the Sixers but having more information should help. Those outside points of reference help both sides of the negotiations.
For the player, he can see what similar players are getting and help shape his own number in his mind. I honestly think players have little clue how much money they should ask for. They aren’t like management working under a salary cap or charged with building a winning club. They are the puppets of sports agents, and looking at what other guys get paid is really their only way to get a ballpark figure for themselves.
For teams, it gives them rebuttals to outlandish contract demands. Meaning if player X says “this guy got this and I am on that level” (aka Emeka Okafor looking at Dwight Howard’s contract), the team can respond with hard core statistics and production to dispute such ridiculous claims as in the case above. We all know it; people are delusional and constantly overstate their abilities. As a pro athlete that psychological misrepresentation is just amplified by the money-hungry agents who stroke their egos.
Is this the case with Andre Iguodala? I don’t know because I am not a fly on the wall in these negotiations. But if I had to bet on it I think the answer would be a resounding - YES.
3. New Sixers GM
I already wrote about my theory regarding Andre Iguodala hoping he could juice Billy King this summer for an overblown contract. I don’t think there will be very many bad contracts given out during the Ed Stefanski era in Philly. That means negotiations are probably not as warm and fuzzy as Iguodala and Williams had hoped. I can just picture Stefanski as a pretty hardcore negotiator and, considering nothing has gotten done, pretty firm on his position.
And the deliberations continue.
At first I was going to do a top 5 or 10 list, but I’d rather stop at three and see what you guys can come up with in the comments. Good to be back and should have a couple more Sixers posts coming in the next day or so.
There hasn’t been much talk about the fans’ feelings regarding his future with the team and his contract situation. Williams hasn’t received any offers so far this season although many teams have reported interest. The most recent 76ers-related rumor is that the Golden State Warriors may be looking to pair Sweet Lou with another electric combo guard Monta Ellis.
NBA front-office sources say that the Warriors — eager to add someone of quality to spare young Monta Ellis from inheriting all of Davis’ old ballhandling duties — are highly intrigued by the idea of signing Sixers guard Louis Williams to an offer sheet.
It’s not yet clear whether Golden State would have enough leftover salary-cap space to extend an offer to Williams sufficiently prohibitive for Philly to match after the Warriors’ expected re-signings of their restricted free agents, Ellis (coming soon) and center Andris Biedrins.
Yet there’s little doubt Williams’ scoring knack would make him an intriguing fit in Don Nelson’s system. Which must be why one plugged-in source believes the Warriors, in spite of the obstacles, are planning to make a “big run” at him. - Marc Stein, ESPN.com
From Don Nelson’s persepective I get why he would be interested in Louis Williams. Besides the fact that Lou is a good, young and improving player, he is similar to Monta Ellis and would thrive in their run-and-gun offense. But I don’t think it would work. They would be vastly undersized and wouldn’t be able to defend on the perimeter. I know Nelson’s teams haven’t been stout defensively, but he does understand it is major factor in winning, and small ball hasn’t won anyone much of anything.
The better question is do the Warriors have enough cap space to put the Sixers to the test by making a big offer? Much of that depends on whether they resign Ellis and Biedrins before going after Williams. Either way I doubt they have enough to steal Lou away if Stefanski and the Sixers are as committed to him as they say they are.
Hard to pinpoint since he hasn’t received any outside offers this summer nor did he receive a contract extension by the Sixers last year. When the off-season began I had a 5 year deal at $4-$5M per year in my head. Having put some more thought to it and done a little research I think that number might be a bit low.
Let’s take a look at some comparables…
Beno Udrih - Signed a 5-year $32 million contract ($6.4M per year average) this summer
Daniel Gibson - Signed a 5-year $20.8 million contract ($4.16M per year average) this summer
Roger Mason - Signed a 2-year $7.3 million contract ($3.65 per year average) this summer
Keyon Dooling - Reported to sign a 3-year $10-11 million contract ($3.33-$3.66 per year average) this summer
Leandro Barbosa - Signed a 5-year $33 million contract ($6.6 per year average) in 2006
Speedy Claxton - Signed a 4-year $25 million contract ($6.25M per year average) in 2006
Bobby Jackson - Signed a 3-year $18 million contract ($6M per year average) in 2006
Marcus Banks - Signed a 5-year $21 million contract ($4.2M per year average) in 2006
Willie Green - Signed a 5-year $17 million contract ($3.4M per year average) in 2006
Mo Williams - Signed a 6-year $51.5 million contract ($8.58M per year average) in 2007
Mike James - Signed a 4-year $23.4 million contract ($5.85M per year average) in 2006
Fred Jones - Signed a 3-year $11 million contract ($3.66M per year average) in 2006
Antonio Daniels - Signed a 5-year $30 million contract ($6M per year average) in 2005
Juan Dixon - Signed a 3-year $8 million contract ($2.66M per year average) in 2005
Carlos Arroyo - Signed a 4-year $16 million contract ($4M per year average) in 2004
I tried to get a variety of similar players in terms of size, team role, minutes, production and style of play. The contract that would stand out the most to me if I was Louis Williams and his agent Merle Scott is this summer’s Beno Udrih deal. Williams and Udrih’s career numbers are almost identical. Last season’s numbers are close as well. The big difference: Lou put up his numbers in 9 less minutes per game.
Like Iguodala the Sixers hold most of the leverage in these negotiations since Williams is restricted and other teams aren’t exactly beating down his door with lucrative offers. With that said Lou’s age is a huge positive going for him. He has put up very good production at only 21-years old, and I only see him improving.
Another thing to consider that should bode well for Williams is his agent. Merle Scott also represents Leandro Barbosa. Meaning he has experience negotiating a contract for a scoring combo guard who comes off the bench. Looking at Barbosa’s and William’s per 36-minute stats you’ll see they are very similar. The biggest difference: Barbosa is a much better overall shooter.
How much do you think Louis Williams is worth to the Sixers?
Louis Williams is the Sixers’ 6th man of the year, and I think he could be an NBA 6th man of the year in time as well. He is the definition of a tweener, combo guard. A guy with tremendous scoring ability, some point guard skills and small. He hit some big shots late in the year this season and showed continued improvement in his overall scoring ability off the bench.
Defensively, he is a liability when he is up against bigger defenders, not much he can do about that. But what bothers me is that his on-ball defense is average at best. When you know you will get taken advantage of in one area (post defense), you should compensate for it in another (on-ball pressure defense). With his quickness and long arms he should be a much more pesky defender on the perimeter. But does he want to be?
Offensively, you know what you get from Lou. He will penetrate and make some tough shots in the lane. He will make the occasional open three. And he will get out on the break and cause havoc against back-peddling defenders. I just wonder does he have more to show offensively or is this where it ends with Lou.
Grade:C+
What Louis Williams Should Improve
Ideally I think we all wished Lou was more of a pure point guard than a small shooting guard, but, understanding that he isn’t and probably isn’t going to develop into a pure point guard, here are the 3 main areas Williams should focus on are (in order of importance):
Mid-range jumper. This stat should sum it up perfectly - 35.9% three-point percentage vs. 33.9% two-point jump shot field goal percentage. Sweet Lou really needs to work on his his mid-range game. Right now he is a spot-up three-point shooter or a slasher to the basket. With his quickness defenders will likely give him room so he doesn’t blow by them. He needs to use that cushion to work his way inside the 3pt line and hit that pull-up jumper. The reason I think he isn’t as strong in that area is because for a guard of his size and quickness he shoots kind of a set shot. He doesn’t translate his jumping ability and explosive athleticism into his shot. To give you a picture of what he could do think of Iverson. At 5′11 he is able to drive hard left, stop in a dime and rise up on most defenders into a nice, comfortable mid-range jumper. Lou doesn’t have that in his game right now, and I think he could.
Shot selection. He is a scorer and a pretty good one at that. But he only shot 42% from the field, and I think that is more about the shots he took than his actual shooting ability. This is just something I expect (hope) will improve as he matures, dude is still only 21-years-old.
Passing ability/teammate shot creation. No I am not trying to make Lou into our point guard, that is why this point is last in the list. But I think right now he is completely one dimensional when he has the ball. Also the largest portion of his turnovers were on bad passes rather than ball-handling mistakes. Just because he isn’t a pure point guard doesn’t mean he can’t get better at driving and kicking when the help comes. Or driving and dropping it off to a big when he draws a second defender. In my opinion all great slashers have an inherent advantage as a playmaker since they can get to the cup at will. Lou is one of those players and needs to learn how to pass once he sheds or gets his defender on his hip and the help comes. He still has tons of time and potential to grow in this area as a 3rd year player out of high school.
Should Williams Be on the Roster Next Season?
Right now I don’t see why Lou Williams wouldn’t return to the team next year. He is our spark off the bench, and as I mentioned before is a core chemistry player for the Sixers. I love his energy and explosiveness on offense and given more playing time he would probably be a more productive starting shooting guard than Willie Green on the 76ers as currently assembled.
Ideal Role for Louis Williams on the 2008 Team
I have been back and forth on what Williams role is or should be. Mainly because I struggle to accurately nail down what his true potential is. Could he be a legit starting guard on a good team? If not for his size I think that would be a resounding and quick - YES. Could he actually be a solid starting shooting guard in the NBA regardless of his size? Let’s take a look at projecting and comparing his offensive production…
Was Ellis’ 53% shooting a fluke or a sign of things to come?
Is Williams actually capable of producing those numbers if given 36+ minutes per game?
Is Lou capable of making just 1 more shot per 36-minutes which would dramatically increase his FG% (49.65%)?
I don’t know the answers to those questions, maybe you guys can assist. But what I am semi-worried about is whether Williams believes he is on par with a guy like Monta Ellis. Why? Well for one he will likely want to be a starter. Does Cheeks and Stefanski agree with that thought? Money. Barbosa made like $5.6M last year, and I expect Ellis will and should get more. So where does that put Louis Williams in his own mind? Will we have another contract rejection situation like we had with Iguodala? Do other teams see more potential in Williams and would they be willing to over bid what the Sixers are prepared to pay? Further, if Williams does remain with the team but is not satisfied with his role what potential impact could that have? Typically when players (especially young players) are not happy with their role, you start see team chemistry erode and a club not live up to their potential (think Chicago Bulls).
Again these are just thoughts to ponder, what else do we really have to do in the offseason!
Ultimately my personal preference would be for Louis Williams to be a 6th man and instant offense off the bench. I prefer to have size at the all positions in the starting line-up and make exceptions for freakish talent (Allen Iverson).
According to the 76ers’ PR people the Sixers are the only NBA team that allows fans in their locker room. I don’t know if that is true or just PR propaganda to shed a positive and unique light on the team; either way it is pretty cool they let fans in there.
As you already know, Saturday I was at the San Antonio game. I went with my gf who got tickets through her college’s (Franklin & Marshall) Philadelphia alumni chapter. (The Sixers’ VP of Sales is an F&M alum.) They raffled off a chance to walk through the 76er locker room during the game. And with my luck, we won (16 in 120 chance). There was a downside though. The tour was during the entire 3rd quarter! Well, the die-hard fan that I am I decided I couldn’t miss an entire quarter so my gf went instead. Below are the great pictures she got during the tour. Enjoy.
NOTE: I had a picture of the 76ers’ whiteboard before the San Antonio Spurs victory on here when I first posted this article. After some thought and being contacted by the Sixers organization I decided to take it down. Why? As loyal fans of the Sixers we can’t have the team’s plays and strategies posted on the Internet for opponents to figure out how we are kicking their @$$es, now can we? Let’s go Sixers!
Above: Andre Miller’s two lockers. Count ‘em, he has 30 boxes of sneakers.
Above: Sixers’ workout room
Above: Sixers’ pre-game workout
Above: Louis Williams - sportin’ the pink button-up (left), Thaddeus Young (middle), Willie Green (right)
Above: Andre Iguodala (left), Louis Williams (middle), Thaddeus Young (right)
Above: This is the center of the 76ers’ locker room. The lockers shown above are located to the right.
Above: Is the hallway outside the showers. The entire locker room and hallways are covered with similar images and quotes.
Above: This is part of a huge image of Charles Barkley in the locker room with a very famous quote all Philadelphia 76er fans should be familar with.
Above: Continuation from the Barkley image above. This is one of his most famous quotes. Gotta love that the image is the Round Mound dunking against the hated Boston Celtics.
Above: Maurice Cheeks’s office in the locker room with the assistant coaches’ area in that back room. Is it just me or is this pretty low budget?
Forgive me while I show my true “homerism” and rant about my disappointment/anger regarding Philadelphia’s non-existent representation in the 2008 All-Star festivities.
Rookie/Sophomore Challenge
Why the hell was Thaddeus Young not on the All-Star rookie team?!? Can you say BULLSHIT. If you need a refresher on why he should have been playing Friday night check this out. Who would I replace for Young? Jeff Green. He has been nothing short of mediocre considering he plays 24.5 minutes per game and takes almost 8 shots a night. On a p/40min basis he doesn’t stack up and shoots a rookie All-Star worthy 44% from the field. Add the fact that Seattle sucks and his selection makes less sense.
When you also consider the potential entertainment value for the fans of having a high flying, super athletic Thaddeus Young in the game it should have been a no brainer to have him representing the Sixers. It’s one thing to be Tim Duncan and have a boring, yet dominant game. It’s a completely different story when your game is just as boring and your name is Jeff Green. Matter of fact, did he even play in the game? I think John Hollinger sums it up best in his post-game grade of Green (D-) “Plenty of time (34 min.) to prove unworthiness.” Enough said.
Skills Competition
For a competition that rewards speed I think we all agree the first Sixers player that comes to mind is Lou Williams. His athletic ability fits perfect for this event. Blazing fast with and without the ball, ability to stop on a dime and quickly change direction.
You put Lou in the competition this season vs. the current contestants - Jason Kidd (former winner), Chris Paul, Deron Williams, and two-time defending champion Dwyane Wade and I’d argue he’d give these guys a run for their money. Wade is all beat to crap now, Kidd is aging (albeit still quick), Paul has failed to win the past two years, and Deron Williams I think is the least quick of the bunch.
Passing ability you say? If Wade can win being the weakest passer in groups composed of Nash, LeBron, Kobe and Paul I wouldn’t worry about Louis Williams’ passing skills for this event.
Slam Dunk Contest
This section is best served with videos.
Rodney Carney
I don’t know about all of you but I am an animated basketball watcher. When this dunk happened I was screaming. Posterizing like this is always better when it’s a high profile player getting banged on. D. Wade can you say FACE!
Andre Iguodala
We can all agree he got completely shafted at the 2006 dunk contest, right?
Three-Point Shootout
Ummmmm……………Willie Green? OK ok moving on.
2008 NBA All-Star Game
We have no iconic superstar that would get voted in by the fans. (Sad) More importantly, not having a stud big man on the Sixers makes getting a current player selected by the coaches even tougher in the East. I think the PF and even more so the center position is the weakest in terms of depth in the Eastern Conference.
So right now our best hope is Iggy to get in over players like Joe Johnson or Rip Hamilton. The #1 thing he can improve individually to make it next season? Shooting percentage (44.7% this season and last). Since his shots per game increased over 10 he hasn’t shot as well from the field. Why? 3.6 three-pointer taken per game and this has increased each of his 4 seasons. That’s fine, but he isn’t hitting the magic number - 33%. Add some more Sixers wins next season and I don’t see how Andre doesn’t make it with marginal improvement.
Here’s a good article from Philly.com about Andre Iguodala and the All-Star game by Phil Jasner.
Even without any Sixers representation I am still excited about Dwight Howard in the dunk contest tonight and the All-Star game on Sunday, although not as much because of all the injuries. How bout you?
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I know not many people watch the Sixers these days. But Lou Williams is turning out to be worth pulling yourself away from whatever horrendous reality show you’ve been watching during the writers strike.
Last night, the 6′1” Williams blocked 6′11” Mehmet Okur’s dunk attempt, immediately started running the other way, and found himself flying through the air and absolutely hammering down an alley-oop pass from Andre Miller. Needless to say, the excitement nearly killed Sixers play-by-play announcer Mark Zumoff, who was screaming so loud you could hardly hear what he was saying. Below is a link to the only YouTube clip I’ve found, if I find one of better quality, I’ll load it. Or you can watch SportsCenter, it’s the #1 play on their top 10.
The blow by Wade and banging on Udonis Haslem was nice. What’s more impressive is the rapid development of Louis Williams as a real baller for the Sixers. At 21-years-old, plenty of potential and his contract expiring this summer, Lou has made a strong case for signing him to a long-term deal.
Facts:
3pt%, FT%, RPG, APG and PPG has each increased over his first 3 seasons.
Williams is scoring 19.5 per 40 minutes
His player efficiency rating (PER) at 17.73 is above league average and has also increased every season.
With that said the big question is can he run this team and play the point effectively? As a natural scorer and pass-second guard, he will need to improve his ability to penetrate with the goal of finding teammates, limit his turnovers and adapt the score-first game he is accustomed to playing. I believe he can. Hopefully he is learning the in’s-and-out’s from a perfect example in Andre Miller. At 6′1 his long-term career and significant minutes will be found playing the point, not as a wing scorer.
For the Sixers, Lou represents a tremendous asset and opportunity. With the expectation of Miller being traded, Lou can immediately fill that spot and allow Stefanski to focus on bringing in a dynamic shooting guard and the dominant post scorer this team is in desperate need of.
Now that I have come to terms with Josias Manzanillo’s and Bart Miadich’s rampant steroid use as revealed in the Mitchell Report, I can get back to what I love most -writing in blogs that nobody reads.
Like Dannie, and many Philadelphia basketball fans, the ousting of Billy King and subsequent hiring of Ed Stefanski, gives hope to a fan base starving for a championship anyway they can get it. Remember, this is city that was ready to parade Barbaro down Broad Street because he was raised and trained in the general area of the city. Of course, Barbaro subsequently died.The Sixers represent the Philadelphia team likely the furthest away from a championship, but they play in a league where a couple lucky ping-pong balls, smart cap maneuvering, and inventive trades can turn things around quickly (see: Boston Celtics, 20-2).
Since Dannie has already outlined the offseason options for the Sixers - I’ll give my semi-educated opinion on the state of the current team, and my fool-proof blueprint for the future. With the exception of Ryan Bowen, everyone in the NBA is good, that’s why they are in the NBA, and there are 40-50 players not in the NBA that could thrive if put in the right situation. As a result, it’s hard to evaluate non-superstar players on an individual basis. The best way to do this, in my opinion, is to see if you could picture them being a productive member of a championship caliber team - in this year’s case, the San Antonio Spurs. Let’s look at where the current Sixers players would fit on a team like this…
Starters
Andre Iguodala - Good defender, decent scorer, great energy guy and someone you want on your team and can fill up a box score. However, could never, ever, be the #1 guy on a championship team. Think Michael Finley with an uglier shot.
Andre Miller - Borderline. Would never start over Tony Parker, but can run the show and throw the best one-handed back-door pass in the business. Can’t score enough (see: Snow, Eric). Also, looks like Richard Pryor and provides team with comic relief when he tries to go with cornrows.
Rotation
Samuel Dalembert - I have been impressed with Sammy the last couple weeks. 9 blocks (and some emotion, for god’s sake!) against Minnesota and 19 boards against the Cavs. However, no one with his lack of basketball intelligence would start in an NBA Finals. His shot-blocking and defense would make him a key reserve - and he’s probably be good for one big game a playoff series.
Reggie Evans - Exactly the kind of guy you see coming off the bench for championship-caliber teams. Hustles, rebounds, plays D and has a fire for the game. As is the case with most players with those attributes, he is a comically bad free throw shooter. I could do without him trying a guard the PG in the back court.
Kyle Korver - Brent Barry, Derek Fisher, John Paxton, Mario Elie, etc, etc. All championship teams have great 3-point shooters. Korver might have been the best pure shooter in the NBA last year. He doesn’t do much else, but that’s just fine coming off the bench.
Louis Williams - I love Louis Williams. I have yet to see anyone able to stay in front of him, and he is the only guy on the team who can create his own shot at will. He’s only 21, leads the team in points per 48 minutes (24.1) and is fearless in the lane. Next year, I imagine he would switch places with Andre Miller on this list.
Jason Smith - Very pleasant surprise this year. Not sure what his ceiling is though. Good at just about everything (shooting, blocking shots, rebounding, post moves), but not great at anything. Already the greatest Colorado State basketball player in NBA history.
Buried On The Bench
Thaddeus Young - He certainly has the potential, but right now, he looks lost at times. He’s 19, and appears to be a hard working kid, so I’ll reserve judgment.
Louis Amundson - Looks too much like a vampire to be a successful pro, but hustles too hard to be cut by a team like the Spurs.
Kevin Ollie - You laugh, but Jacque frickin’ Vaughn logs time for the Spurs. Old, crafty PG’s who don’t turn the ball over are always good to have on the deep bench.
Never Signed, Drafted or Traded for, ever
Willie Green - Has the skill to be a Devin Brown-type flash off the bench, but will occasionally (frequently) take horrible, momentum killing shots. He drives me absolutely crazy.
Shavlik Randolph - A whiter version of Josh McRoberts
Rodney Carney - No.
Calvin Booth - Billy King’s last move - and what a move it was.
For The Future:
Obviously, I feel we should trade/release anyone at the bottom of this list. You also will have to assume that Andre Miller will be traded, lets say to a decent team for a late first round pick.
It’s easy to see that we are more than a couple players away from being a true contender. Luckily, we have some money and a potentially high draft pick. If we use the money to sign Elton Brand (if healthy) and use our two first round picks (ours and Andre Miller’s new team) to trade up in the draft, like we didn’t last year, to pick a SG (Eric Gordon, if there is a god) the Sixers would trot out, if nothing else, a very exciting starting 5 next year.
PG- Lou Williams
SG- Eric Gordon
SF- Andre Iguodala
PF- Elton Brand
C- Samuel Dalembert
Bench: Evans, Korver, J. Smith, T. Young, lesser FA Signing (Chris Duhon?)
That looks like a playoff team to me, and with a few more good draft picks and creative trades during the season, could be a contender in the East. This will not be a one-year fix, but the right moves could get us on the right track. I hope that our readers (Dannie’s girlfriend and mom) enjoyed my first post.
I thought it only fitting that the first real post on the ReclinerGM Sports blog be related to big upcoming decisions for new Sixers’ GM - Ed Stefanski. So let me start by setting the stage…
Fact: The Sixers will likely be the only team with enough cap space to be a major player for a big time free agent next summer. Why? 22 NBA teams are either over or within $4 million of the luxury tax threshold. So what, right? You gotta pay to win in pro sports, right? Yes, but the trend of late has owners being more frugal and pulling back the reigns on NBA GMs’ spending sprees.
With that said the Sixers might not have enough money to offer a max deal if:
They have a large cap hold for a top first-round draft pick. At 10-14 they are only a half game out of the 8th playoff spot. Figure in a weak Eastern Conference, their propensity to compete every night, especially now since everyone is playing for a job next season under Stefanski and this point is still to be determined.
Stefanski decides to give big deals to both Andre Iguodala and Lou Williams who are both restricted free-agents. Speaking of Iggy, what the hell was he thinking turning down a $57 million contract extension? With Philadelphia the only team out there to pay him big time money it makes his decision that much more DUMB!
First thing to consider - do you re-sign Iggy? More importantly do you pay him more than what was already offered if there happens to be another team competing for him? PSST here’s a hint: HELL NO! You don’t over pay for a non all-star. A guy who is widely considered a 2nd tier player. If that’s not enough, look at his numbers. As his shot attempts go up, his turnovers per game (3.6 - most of his career) are also going up and his shooting % (43.9% - worst of his career) are going down. Don’t get me wrong I want him on the Sixers but not for top superstar money.
Ok, I think you get the picture. Here are what I consider to be the top free agents this upcoming summer worth considering.
Tier 1 Players: These players have an “early termination option” in their contracts and can become unrestricted free-agents.
1.Elton Brand, Clippers -As long as he completely recovers from his Achilles injury he will be the most talented and most coveted player available, not to mention the low-post scorer that has been absent from the Sixers since Charles Barkley.
2. Gilbert Arenas, Wizards - Personally, I love his blog, his personality and his ability to score, but how much different is he than the last real super star (see #6) we had in Philly that everyone gave up on?
3. Shawn Marion, Suns - Great defender, rebounder and runs the floor like a race horse. But at 30 years old and reliant on a good point guard to get him the ball in order to score, do we really want to pay him top dollar?
4. Baron Davis, Warriors - In my opinion the best guard on the board and having the best season of his career. At 29 he is obviously vying for a long-term contract.
5. Jermaine O’Neal, Pacers -Has been injury-prone the last few seasons. He is only 29, and the big question is whether he can stay healthy.
6.Allen Iverson, Nuggets - AI back in Philly.In my dreams!
7. Ron Artest, Kings - 4 years ago he would have been a great signing.
Tier 2 Players: The 2004 draft class. These guys are restricted free agents.
1. Luol Deng, Bulls -Do you like him better than Iggy?
2. Patrick O’Bryant, Warriors - He was the No. 9 pick in the ‘06 draft and a 7-footer with upside. With GS bringing in Brandon Wright we may be able to steal a quality big away.
There you have it. Stefanski really has his work cut out for him. But I ask all the “ReclinerGMs” out there - what would you do?
What is the market value for Louis Williams?
Louis Williams 2007 Season Review
Forgive me while I show my true “homerism” and rant about my disappointment/anger regarding Philadelphia’s non-existent representation in the 2008 All-Star festivities.
Now that I have come to terms with Josias Manzanillo’s and Bart Miadich’s rampant steroid use as revealed in the Mitchell Report, I can get back to what I love most -writing in blogs that nobody reads.
