Entries Tagged 'Pat Gillick' ↓

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Explanation of ratings system and other team previews here

I decided to change it up a little bit for the last 3 teams of MLB Preview - The Mets, Braves and Phillies. Since this is a Philly blog, people are most interested in how these 3 teams stack up in what should be one of the closest division races in baseball. What I’m going to do is rank their players, not by position, but by “best hitter vs. best hitter,” “2nd best hitter vs. 2nd best hitter,” etc… Then, at the end, I plan to come to some sort of logical and meaningful conclusion.

Best Hitter

1. Ryan Howard, Phillies
2. David Wright, Mets
3. Chipper Jones, Braves

Comment: Howard and Wright are neck and neck, but the way Howard has been hitting this spring, I expect we will see the 2006 version of Howard.

2nd Best

1. Mark Teixeira, Braves
2. Chase Utley, Phillies
3. Carlos Beltran, Mets

Comment: How well did Teixeira play after coming over the Braves? Well, if he hits at the rate he did in his 56 games for the team, he will hit .317 with 51 HR and 168 RBI over a full season. Wow.

3rd Best

1. Jimmy Rollins, Phillies
2. Jose Reyes, Mets
3. Jeff Francouer, Braves

Comment: I’m going to give the reigning NL MVP the benefit of the doubt, but I could see him having a slightly disappointing season this year.

4th Best

1. Brian McCann, Braves
2. Pat Burrell, Phillies
3. Carlos Delgado, Mets

Comment: McCann is due for a breakout year, we know what we will get from Burrell (.270, 30 HR, 95 RBI) and Delgado has a lot of injuries to recover from before he’s going to be a productive hitter.

5th Best

1. Ryan Church, Mets
2. Matt Diaz, Braves
3. Geoff Jenkins, Phillies

Comment: I actually like the acquisition of Church for the Mets (though they might regret losing Lastings Milledge in the long run). Church’s 43 doubles in 470 ABs last year is very impressive.

6th Best

1. Kelly Johnson, Braves
2. Shane Victorino, Phillies
3. Moises Alou, Mets

Comment: Johnson was way under the radar with the season he had last year. He had a .832 OPS at second base, which is great for that position. Victorino and his SBs are not far behind him though and Alou might have been in first if I didn’t think he will be hurt all year.

7th Best

1. Yunel Escobar, Braves
2. Pedro Feliz, Phillies
3. Luis Castillo, Mets

Comment: Escobar is good enough that the Braves had no problems giving up all-star shortstop Edgar Renteria in the offseason. He hit .326 in 319 ABs last year. He is not a power hitter, but could get 40+ doubles this year.

8th Best

1. Carlos Ruiz, Phillies
2. Mark Kotsay, Braves
3. Brian Schneider, Mets

Comment: Ruiz is far and away the best of this bunch - it’ll be interesting to see what he will do this year with the starting spot all to himself.

Bench

1. Phillies (Chris Coste, Greg Dobbs, Jayson Werth, So Taguchi)
2. Mets (Ramon Castro, Marlon Anderson, Endy Chavez, Damion Easley)
3. Braves (Ruben Gotay, Brayan Pena, Martin Prado, Gregor Blanco)

Comment: Both the Mets and Phillies have great benches - I give the edge to the Phillies because their 4 players drove in 156 runs last year, vs. 99 for the Mets guys.

1st Starter

1. Johan Santana, Mets
2. Brett Myers, Phillies
3. John Smoltz, Braves

Comment: Santana is obvious - but I chose Myers over Smoltz because Smoltz is starting the year on the DL and at 40, he might be slowing down. Also, Myers has looked phenomenal in the spring.

2nd Starter

1. Cole Hamels, Phillies
2. Tim Hudson, Braves
3. Pedro Martinez, Mets

Comment: Word is that Pedro has looked great this spring. Considering he’s pitched 160 innings total the last 2 years, I’ll believe it when I see it.

3rd Starter

1. John Maine, Mets
2. Tom Glavine, Braves
3. Jamie Moyer, Phillies

Comment: There is a huge gap here between Maine and the two old lefties. As much as I love Jamie Moyer, I see him having another year flirting with a 5.00 ERA.

4th Starter

1. Oliver Perez, Mets
2. Jair Jurrjens, Braves
3. Kyle Kendrick, Phillies

Comment: Phillies fans don’t think much of Perez because he was always wild when he pitched against us, but he actually finished the year 9th in the NL in ERA. As for Kendrick, I believe he will be in the minor leagues by mid-May.

5th Starter

1. Orlando Hernandez, Mets
2. Adam Eaton, Phillies
3. Mike Hampton, Braves

Comment: I think Kris Benson will probably take this spot when he’s ready - but I have to think Eaton can’t be AS bad as he was last year. As for Hampton, I don’t think he’ll be able to stay healthy, hence his spot at the bottom.

Closer

1. Billy Wagner, Mets
2. Rafael Soriano, Braves
3. Brad Lidge, Philies

Comment: I hate Billy Wagner. He’s a liar and a baby. That’s my comment.

Set-Up Man

1. Peter Moylan, Braves
2. Tom Gordon, Phillies
3. Aaron Heilman, Mets

Comment: Peter who? Moylan had 1.80 ERA last year for the Braves over 90.1 IP, while Heilman had SEVEN losses, which is entirely too many for a reliever.

7th Inning Man

1. J.C. Romero, Phillies
2. Manny Acosta, Braves
3. Pedro Feliciano, Mets

Comment: If Romero can keep his walks down, he can be dominant, as he showed down the stretch for the Phils last year. The Phillies bet $12 million in the offseason that he can.

Rest of Bullpen

1. Mets (Joe Smith, Scott Schoenweis, Jorge Sosa)
2. Phillies (Ryan Madson, Chad Durbin, Clay Condrey)
3. Braves (Blaine Boyer, Chris Resop, Wil Ohman)

Comment: All three of these teams could use some improvement here. Ryan Madson has looked really good in the spring for the Phillies, and it would be a huge boost to the team if he can stay healthy and effective for the entire year.

OVERALL

Let’s go ahead and assign some arbitrary numbers to these rankings and see what we come up with. For the line-ups, bullpen and bench I’ll award 3 points for each 1st place, 2 for 2nd and 1 for 3rd. Since the starting rotation is only 5 players and is extremely important, we’ll award 6 points for each 1st, 4 for 2nd and 2 for 3rd. Here’s what we come up with for that.

Line-Up

T-1. Phillies, 18 points
T-1. Braves, 18 points
    3. Mets, 12 points

Starting Rotation

1. Mets, 26 points
2. Phillies, 18 points
3. Braves, 16 points

Bullpen/Bench

1. Phillies, 11 points
2. Mets, 10 points
3. Braves, 9 points

Overall

1. Mets, 48 points
2. Phillies, 47 points
3. Braves, 43 points

MEANINGFUL CONCLUSIONS

Braves- 3rd Place. I don’t really understand the obsession with the Braves resurgence this year (most of the ESPN analysts have picked them 2nd). They will have an improved line-up even w/o Andruw Jones, and their starting rotation is full of some good names (Smoltz, Glavine, Hudson, Hampton) but Tom Glavine’s last appearance on the mound was the biggest choke of his career, Smoltz is already on the DL and Hampton hasn’t been healthy since 2005.

Phillies- 2nd Place. The Phils have the best offense in the National League and that alone will win them a lot of games. However, 3 through 5 in their rotation absolutely terrifies me. I still can’t understand how Kyle Lohse ended up with the Cardinals for 4.5 million and we couldn’t pony up 7-8 million for one season. A lot also hinges on Brad Lidge coming back healthy, which it looks like he will. Regardless of the question marks, the Phillies have no holes in their line-up and a deep bench in case anyone gets hurt. I think they will win the Wild Card this year.

Mets- 1st place. It’s hard to make an argument against a team that lost the division on the last day of the season and then went out and got the best pitcher in baseball. What sets the Mets apart from the Braves and Phillies is the the combination of a true ace at the top, and depth at the bottom of their rotation. Their offense isn’t quite as good, or deep, but Jose Reyes, David Wright and Carlos Beltran is nothing to scoff at.

According to multiple sources, the Phillies are very close to signing a pair of free agents in OF Geoff Jenkins and RHP Chad Durbin.

Thus far, the offseason has been an exercise in treading water as they have done little to improve the team, and a lot to keep the team where it was last year. At closer, they replaced Brett Myers with Brad Lidge (push). At starting pitcher, they replaced Kyle Lohse with Myers (Myers has better stuff, but remember how bad he pitched to start the year, and how good Lohse pitched at the end. Push). Abraham Nunez out, Eric Bruntlett in (pretend you care). J.C. Romero out, and then back in again (we need Philly Romero, not Boston Romero). And as of this morning, they have replaced Aaron Rowand in their outfield with a Geoff Jenkins / Jayson Werth platoon.

So what kind of production will we (theoretically) lose from this most recent trade-off? Jenkins will likely be playing most of his time against RHP, and Werth will play against lefties and select righties. If you take all of Jenkins ABs against RHP last year, plus all of Werth’s ABs (he doesn’t have enough against just LHP for it to be statistically relevant), you get a total of 610 at-bats. Rowand had 612 last year. Below is the comparison of Rowand v. the Jenkins/Werth hybrid for the 2007 season.

Player	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	K	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
Jenkins/Werth	610	169	31	5	26	99	73	170	.278	.359	.474	.833
Rowand	612	189	45	0	27	89	47	119	.309	.374	.515	.889

OK - so clearly a downgrade in some respects (more strikeouts, slightly lower averages, less extra-base hits), but probably not as bad in other areas (more RBI, walks) as you might think. I would rather have Rowand, but is the difference between the 2 sets of numbers above worth $47 million (roughly the difference in Rowand and Jenkins contracts)? Considering arguably the best free agent pitcher out there, Carlos Silva, just signed for $44 million, and Rowand had by far his best year of his career last year, I would say no - and it’s not even close.

I don’t think you’ll find a Phillies fan who didn’t want Rowand to stay, he was a Philly-type guy. But the ratio of production/money, as you can see above, just didn’t make sense for them, and I can understand their stance. People will argue that you can’t replace his clubhouse personality and effect on a team. I would have agreed, if these were still the Bobby Abreu, Pat Burrell and Scott Rolen Phillies. But they aren’t. This is Jimmy Rollins, Chase Utley and Ryan Howard’s team - and there is plenty of good clubhouse karma to go around. Aaron Rowand leaving isn’t going to change that.

I wish Aaron the best of luck in San Francisco, and I hope he likes the city, because they are by far the worst team in a very tough division. Now, let’s hope the Phillies replace Adam Eaton with Kris Benson and Antonio Alfonseca with Akinori Otsuka, and we can start writing about some improvements around here.

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