Entries Tagged 'Ryan Howard' ↓

Explanation of ratings system and other team previews here

I decided to change it up a little bit for the last 3 teams of MLB Preview - The Mets, Braves and Phillies. Since this is a Philly blog, people are most interested in how these 3 teams stack up in what should be one of the closest division races in baseball. What I’m going to do is rank their players, not by position, but by “best hitter vs. best hitter,” “2nd best hitter vs. 2nd best hitter,” etc… Then, at the end, I plan to come to some sort of logical and meaningful conclusion.

Best Hitter

1. Ryan Howard, Phillies
2. David Wright, Mets
3. Chipper Jones, Braves

Comment: Howard and Wright are neck and neck, but the way Howard has been hitting this spring, I expect we will see the 2006 version of Howard.

2nd Best

1. Mark Teixeira, Braves
2. Chase Utley, Phillies
3. Carlos Beltran, Mets

Comment: How well did Teixeira play after coming over the Braves? Well, if he hits at the rate he did in his 56 games for the team, he will hit .317 with 51 HR and 168 RBI over a full season. Wow.

3rd Best

1. Jimmy Rollins, Phillies
2. Jose Reyes, Mets
3. Jeff Francouer, Braves

Comment: I’m going to give the reigning NL MVP the benefit of the doubt, but I could see him having a slightly disappointing season this year.

4th Best

1. Brian McCann, Braves
2. Pat Burrell, Phillies
3. Carlos Delgado, Mets

Comment: McCann is due for a breakout year, we know what we will get from Burrell (.270, 30 HR, 95 RBI) and Delgado has a lot of injuries to recover from before he’s going to be a productive hitter.

5th Best

1. Ryan Church, Mets
2. Matt Diaz, Braves
3. Geoff Jenkins, Phillies

Comment: I actually like the acquisition of Church for the Mets (though they might regret losing Lastings Milledge in the long run). Church’s 43 doubles in 470 ABs last year is very impressive.

6th Best

1. Kelly Johnson, Braves
2. Shane Victorino, Phillies
3. Moises Alou, Mets

Comment: Johnson was way under the radar with the season he had last year. He had a .832 OPS at second base, which is great for that position. Victorino and his SBs are not far behind him though and Alou might have been in first if I didn’t think he will be hurt all year.

7th Best

1. Yunel Escobar, Braves
2. Pedro Feliz, Phillies
3. Luis Castillo, Mets

Comment: Escobar is good enough that the Braves had no problems giving up all-star shortstop Edgar Renteria in the offseason. He hit .326 in 319 ABs last year. He is not a power hitter, but could get 40+ doubles this year.

8th Best

1. Carlos Ruiz, Phillies
2. Mark Kotsay, Braves
3. Brian Schneider, Mets

Comment: Ruiz is far and away the best of this bunch - it’ll be interesting to see what he will do this year with the starting spot all to himself.

Bench

1. Phillies (Chris Coste, Greg Dobbs, Jayson Werth, So Taguchi)
2. Mets (Ramon Castro, Marlon Anderson, Endy Chavez, Damion Easley)
3. Braves (Ruben Gotay, Brayan Pena, Martin Prado, Gregor Blanco)

Comment: Both the Mets and Phillies have great benches - I give the edge to the Phillies because their 4 players drove in 156 runs last year, vs. 99 for the Mets guys.

1st Starter

1. Johan Santana, Mets
2. Brett Myers, Phillies
3. John Smoltz, Braves

Comment: Santana is obvious - but I chose Myers over Smoltz because Smoltz is starting the year on the DL and at 40, he might be slowing down. Also, Myers has looked phenomenal in the spring.

2nd Starter

1. Cole Hamels, Phillies
2. Tim Hudson, Braves
3. Pedro Martinez, Mets

Comment: Word is that Pedro has looked great this spring. Considering he’s pitched 160 innings total the last 2 years, I’ll believe it when I see it.

3rd Starter

1. John Maine, Mets
2. Tom Glavine, Braves
3. Jamie Moyer, Phillies

Comment: There is a huge gap here between Maine and the two old lefties. As much as I love Jamie Moyer, I see him having another year flirting with a 5.00 ERA.

4th Starter

1. Oliver Perez, Mets
2. Jair Jurrjens, Braves
3. Kyle Kendrick, Phillies

Comment: Phillies fans don’t think much of Perez because he was always wild when he pitched against us, but he actually finished the year 9th in the NL in ERA. As for Kendrick, I believe he will be in the minor leagues by mid-May.

5th Starter

1. Orlando Hernandez, Mets
2. Adam Eaton, Phillies
3. Mike Hampton, Braves

Comment: I think Kris Benson will probably take this spot when he’s ready - but I have to think Eaton can’t be AS bad as he was last year. As for Hampton, I don’t think he’ll be able to stay healthy, hence his spot at the bottom.

Closer

1. Billy Wagner, Mets
2. Rafael Soriano, Braves
3. Brad Lidge, Philies

Comment: I hate Billy Wagner. He’s a liar and a baby. That’s my comment.

Set-Up Man

1. Peter Moylan, Braves
2. Tom Gordon, Phillies
3. Aaron Heilman, Mets

Comment: Peter who? Moylan had 1.80 ERA last year for the Braves over 90.1 IP, while Heilman had SEVEN losses, which is entirely too many for a reliever.

7th Inning Man

1. J.C. Romero, Phillies
2. Manny Acosta, Braves
3. Pedro Feliciano, Mets

Comment: If Romero can keep his walks down, he can be dominant, as he showed down the stretch for the Phils last year. The Phillies bet $12 million in the offseason that he can.

Rest of Bullpen

1. Mets (Joe Smith, Scott Schoenweis, Jorge Sosa)
2. Phillies (Ryan Madson, Chad Durbin, Clay Condrey)
3. Braves (Blaine Boyer, Chris Resop, Wil Ohman)

Comment: All three of these teams could use some improvement here. Ryan Madson has looked really good in the spring for the Phillies, and it would be a huge boost to the team if he can stay healthy and effective for the entire year.

OVERALL

Let’s go ahead and assign some arbitrary numbers to these rankings and see what we come up with. For the line-ups, bullpen and bench I’ll award 3 points for each 1st place, 2 for 2nd and 1 for 3rd. Since the starting rotation is only 5 players and is extremely important, we’ll award 6 points for each 1st, 4 for 2nd and 2 for 3rd. Here’s what we come up with for that.

Line-Up

T-1. Phillies, 18 points
T-1. Braves, 18 points
    3. Mets, 12 points

Starting Rotation

1. Mets, 26 points
2. Phillies, 18 points
3. Braves, 16 points

Bullpen/Bench

1. Phillies, 11 points
2. Mets, 10 points
3. Braves, 9 points

Overall

1. Mets, 48 points
2. Phillies, 47 points
3. Braves, 43 points

MEANINGFUL CONCLUSIONS

Braves- 3rd Place. I don’t really understand the obsession with the Braves resurgence this year (most of the ESPN analysts have picked them 2nd). They will have an improved line-up even w/o Andruw Jones, and their starting rotation is full of some good names (Smoltz, Glavine, Hudson, Hampton) but Tom Glavine’s last appearance on the mound was the biggest choke of his career, Smoltz is already on the DL and Hampton hasn’t been healthy since 2005.

Phillies- 2nd Place. The Phils have the best offense in the National League and that alone will win them a lot of games. However, 3 through 5 in their rotation absolutely terrifies me. I still can’t understand how Kyle Lohse ended up with the Cardinals for 4.5 million and we couldn’t pony up 7-8 million for one season. A lot also hinges on Brad Lidge coming back healthy, which it looks like he will. Regardless of the question marks, the Phillies have no holes in their line-up and a deep bench in case anyone gets hurt. I think they will win the Wild Card this year.

Mets- 1st place. It’s hard to make an argument against a team that lost the division on the last day of the season and then went out and got the best pitcher in baseball. What sets the Mets apart from the Braves and Phillies is the the combination of a true ace at the top, and depth at the bottom of their rotation. Their offense isn’t quite as good, or deep, but Jose Reyes, David Wright and Carlos Beltran is nothing to scoff at.

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1. The Young Guys - I always like to use Spring Training as a time to get a feel for the pitchers that have no chance of making the roster this year, but could have an impact on the future. I’ll always remember Spring Training 2004, when a 19-year old Cole Hamels struck-out Derek Jeter, Alex Rodriguez and Tony Clark in succession causing Jeter to say that Hamels already had one of the best change-ups in baseball. Now, he’s our #1 starter and a potential star. The names to look at this spring are Carlos Carrasco, Joe Savery and Josh Outman. All 3 may be up in the rotation in the near future. Don’t look at their stat lines though, or listen to what the Phillies say about them - look for quotes of what opposing hitters and coaching say, they will be the most honest.
2. The Current Guys - I think that all Phillies fans need to appreciate what we have in Ryan Howard, Jimmy Rollins and Chase Utley. All 3 are in their prime, are MVP candidates, are home-grown talent, and are already the best Phillies ever at their positions. For the next 3-4 years, we will have one of the best infields in MLB history, and after that, we will all be remembering the “good ol’ days” when we had it. Appreciate it now, because it’s rare, and you are going to miss it later.
3. The Question Marks - Do I even have enough space to ask all the questions? Let’s see…

• What can we expect of Brett Myers as a starter?
• Is Brad Lidge healthy - mentally and physically?
• Can Cole Hamels pitch 200 innings for the first time?
• Can Adam Eaton really be THAT bad again? And if he can, can Kris Benson, Chad Durbin or Travis Blackley be slightly better?
• Can Kyle Kendrick prove the doubters wrong? (note: The prevailing idea among baseball ‘scientists’ is that a pitcher with Kendrick’s strike-out rate and hit-rate cannot be better than a 5^th starter in the league. They have piles of numbers to back this up. Hopefully they are wrong.)
• Which Jamie Moyer are we getting?
• Will Rollins’ suffer the same MVP hangover Howard did in ‘07?
• Will Howard cut down his strikeouts and hit the ball to all fields like he did in ‘06?
• Will Howard’s contract situation affect his play?
• What on earth can we realistically expect from Geoff Jenkins and Pedro Feliz?
• How will J.C. Romero pitch now that he has his contract?
• How will Tom Gordon pitch now that his arm has been re-attached?
• Can Ryan Madson NOT give up back-to-back walk-off HR’s to start the season this year?
• At what point will we sign Roberto Hernandez, Antonio Alfonceca or Jose Mesa? June? August?
• Pat Burrell: Man or Machine?
• Can THIS be the team that brings us 25-year olds our FIRST championship?

1. The Bottom Line - Spring Training gets everyone all fired up for the season, but really, it’s much like pre-season anything in that it will only tell you who in injured and who is not. Occasionally, there will be player who plays so well that they surprisingly make the team. Greg Dobbs in 2007, Chris Coste in 2006, Eddie Oropesa in 2001 among many others. These are always the best stories to follow and the papers are always all over them - largely because of how much Philly likes an underdog. But really, once we get to about the 10^th spring training game, I just get ancy and want the real games to begin. When they do, we’ll finally start getting answers to those questions.

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Previous Analysis: C, 2B

Opening Day Starter (2003-2008)
            2008- Ryan Howard
            2007- Ryan Howard
            2006- Ryan Howard
            2005- Jim Thome
            2004- Jim Thome
            2003- Jim Thome

2007 Recap

          Following his historic MVP season in 2006, Ryan Howard clearly started off 2007 with a bit of a hangover from the constant media attention and award dinners’ circuit in the off-season. He quickly got back to his old self though, leading the NL in HR and RBI after the all-star break.
          To put in perspective the 2 years that Howard has had with the Phillies, here are some stats.                      

-         Over the last 2 years, his only full seasons in the league, Howard has 105 HR (16 more than anyone else), and 285 RBI, (8 more than anyone else)

-         Single Season HR Ranks – Excluding those who took steroids

1)      Roger Maris, 1961 – 61

2)      Babe Ruth, 1927 – 60

3)      Babe Ruth, 1921 – 59

4)      Ryan Howard, 2006 – 58

-         Single Season RBI Ranks since 1950– Excluding those who took steroids

            1)      Manny Ramirez, 1999 – 165

            2)      Alex Rodriguez, 2007 – 156

            3)      Tommy Davis, 1962 – 153

            4)      Andres Galarraga, 1996 – 150

            5)      Ryan Howard, 2006 – 149

-         ­­Is already the Phillies all-time HR leader for a first-baseman

-         In 2007, hit .377 and had a .568 on-base percentage with runners in scoring position and 2 outs

What We Need In ‘08
               It’s hard to nitpick with someone who owns the stats mentioned above, but one thing Howard can do in 2008 is take a little bit of pressure off himself. Last year, he was coming off his MVP season, may have felt he was playing for a contract and spent part of the year without Utley in the line-up. As a result, he pressed at times, and ended with a very high strikeout rate, and a lowered batting average (from .313 to .268). In 2008, Howard needs to get back to making contact with the ball, spreading it to all fields and bring his batting average up and strikeouts down. But even if he doesn’t, I’m never going to complain about 47 HR and 136 RBI.

First-Baseman of the Future? Let’s just say we should hope Howard doesn’t get injured. There is really no quality 1B prospect in our system.

NL East First-Baseman Rankings
1. Ryan Howard, Phillies
2. Mark Teixeira, Braves
3. Carlos Delgado, Mets
4. Dmitri Young, Nationals
5. Mike Jacobs, Marlins

Top 3 First-Basemen in MLB for ‘08
1. Ryan Howard, Phillies
2. Albert Pujols, Cardinals
3. Prince Fielder, Brewers

Top 3 First-Basemen in 25 or younger
1. Fielder, 23
2. James Loney, Dodgers, 23
3. Adrian Gonzalez, Padres, 25

Best Season By a Phillies First-Baseman: Ryan Howard, 2006 (.313, 58 HR, 149 RBI, 1.084 OPS)

Best Season Ever By a First-Baseman: Lou Gehrig, New York Yankees - 1927
(.373 BA, 47 HR, 52 2B, 18 3B, 175 RBI, 149 Runs, 1.239 OPS). Only player to ever have over 45 HR, 50 2B and 15 3B in a single season. 5th most RBI, 3rd most total bases, 2nd most extra-base hits of any season, at any position. Among 1st basemen in a single season: Highest OPS and SLG% ever, most total bases and extra-base hits, 3rd most RBI, 5th most runs, 7th best BA. And not surprisingly, he played every game.

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