This is first series that the Phillies could theoretically clinch. If they sweep the Marlins, and the Braves lose 3 as well, the division is ours. Unlikely, but we’re close.
We’re close because the Phils took care of a good Braves team on the road in a series that they needed a whole lot more than we did. It is clear that the offense has struggled for consistency for awhile now, but we keep winning because of our starters. And, as we saw in last year’s playoffs, it’s pitching, not hitting that matters in October.
2009: 87-61
2008: 81-67
2007: 79-69
It’s a little surprising to me how far ahead we still are from last year’s pace, even though we only have 14 games left.
Player of the Series: Ryan Howard (4 for 11, 3 HR, 5 RBI)
Goat of the Series: n/a
The Good News
- Ryan Howard, Chase Utley and Jimmy Rollins are Phillies (see below)
- Ryan Howard became just the 4th player in MLB history to hit 40 HR and 120 RBI in 4 straight seasons. The others are Babe Ruth, Ken Griffey Jr., and juicer Sammy Sosa. Howard is the first ever to do it in the first 4 full seasons.
- In those seasons (2006-2009) he has 29 more HR than anyone else (Pujols, 165) and 70 more RBI than anyone else (Pujols, 484).
- If Chase Utley gets to 100 RBI (he is 9 away), he will join Jeff Kent as the only 2B to put up 20 HR and 100+ RBI for 5 straight seasons in MLB history.
- We are coming to an end of a decade (2000-2009). In this decade, Jimmy Rollins has the following MLB ranks…1st in 3B, 4th in SB, 8th in PA, 10th in 2B, 11th in Runs, 15th in Hits, 19th in Extra Base Hits, 23rd in Total Bases, 24th in Runs Produced (R+RBI-HR), 5th in HR (SS only), 6th in RBI (SS only).
- We have a 3.34 team ERA since the all-star break. Last year after the all-star break, our team ERA was 3.85.
The Bad News
Uhhh….everyone is hurt? This will be only an injury update area…
Brett Myers – Possible shoulder strain. No timetable for return. Expects to pitch again before playoffs.
Carlos Ruiz – Sprained wrist. Hopes to be back by Tuesday.
J.A. Happ – Maintains that he is not hurt and shouldn’t have been pulled from his last start. Scheduled to make his next start on time.
Pedro Martinez – Said his neck does not feel good right now. Hopes to make next start.
Clay Condrey – Back! Gave up 0 hits in 1.1 IP against the Braves.
Scott Eyre – Will require arthroscopic surgery after the season on “loose bodies” in elbow. Threw 25 pitches on Saturday and felt good, and hopes to return this week. Not sure how the “loose bodies” will effect him.
J.C. Romero – Originally hoped to join the team this upcoming weekend, but that does not appear likely now. It’s “possible” he could return for the playoffs. I personally wouldn’t count on it.
Chan Ho Park – badly strained hamstring, out 2-3 weeks. Playoffs start in 2 weeks. Maybe on the NLCS roster.
Series Preview: Phillies at Florida Marlins
The Marlins are 8 back with 14 to play (as are the Braves) – and desperately need a sweep here to stay alive. All the Phillies really need to do is win 1. Though of course, it would be nice to clinch as quickly as possible so we can get people rested and healthy and also get our rotation in order. We also are 1/2 game up on St. Louis, and 2 games behind LA for home field advantage in the NL.
Tuesday (Game 1): Blanton vs. Josh Johnson (15-4, 3.01 ERA)
Tuesday (Game 2): Moyer vs. Anibal Sanchez (2-7, 4.50 ERA)
Wednesday: Hamels vs. Rick VandenHurk (2-2, 4.24 ERA)
Questions for the Series…
- Can the Phillies keep their focus going down a stretch run where every game isn’t a critical as the past two years’ have been?
- Which relief pitchers will be healthy enough to go for the playoffs?
- Will we clinch the NL East 3-peat by this time next week?
Series Prediction
The Marlins are at home, need this series more and they have some of their better pitchers going against us. Sounds just the Braves series we just won, doesn’t it? I think the Phils beat the odds and take 2 of 3.
Can’t forget about Jack Taschner, lol. He has a mid-back strain and is rehabbing in Clearwater.
I’d love to know how the injury occurred. Was it the result of a particularly violent sneeze? Did he sleep in an awkward position? Did he try to pick up a nickel off the sidewalk? It’s got to be something like that because it’s certainly not from overwork on the mound.
Maybe it’s just that the chairs in the bullpen are unforgiving. I’m sure if he just used a foam donut cushion his back would feel better after a few days.
Jason Werth is getting a lotta love from Jerry Crasnick at espn.com and a little bit from Dave Cameron at fangraphs.com today.
Good to see the Marlins showed up and played with some desperation in Game 1.
bski-
that was an interesting Werth article – though I don’t really understand what the point of the first tidbit about the Rays player was about – didn’t really fit in to the article.
stu-
I’d have to imagine it’s tough to get properly pumped up in front of 5,000 fans. thats just pathetic.
I guess it was supposed to illustrate that only gritty, hard working, mentally tough players can make it in Philly, Werth is that, and that’s why he has become the player he is and is a fan favorite. It seemed unnecessary to me, too.
Sorry I missed the y in Jayson’s name yesterday, btw.
Uh-oh, his can’t be good. From Todd Zolecki (3:16pm):
Carlos Ruiz said yesterday his sprained left wrist still felt sore, but that he could play.
He played in Game 2 of last night’s doubleheader against the Marlins.
But the wrist bothered him enough that he had a closed door meeting with Charlie Manuel after the game. The Phillies determined they would fly Ruiz back to Philadelphia to have team doctors Michael Ciccotti and Randall Culp examine him. Ruiz is expected to join the team in Milwaukee.
Obviously, losing Ruiz would be a blow. The Phillies have Paul Bako and Paul Hoover to catch while Ruiz is out, how ever long that is.
So HWWNBN just blew another save. To pathetic to be surprised.
It is truly a sad state of affair when you are more surprised that your reliever successfully saves a close game… This has gone beyond ridiculous to sublime.
lidge is shit
at this point – I have absolutely no idea what Charlie needs to see to permanently remove Lidge.
Why exactly does a 0-8 pitcher with an ERA north of even make the playoff roster?
What amazes me about our current record compared to last year is the fact that between Madson and Lidge, 18 games have been blown (I think Madson has blown 7, it could be 6). Last year I think the Phils were like 83-1 with a lead after 8 innings. So factor in that we have blown 18 games (not sure how many of those are losses but I would guess at least 15) and our record this year could be ridiculous.
not only did Lidge blow it but Madson gave up a run too! I’m convinced that their closer is going to have to be the starter that doesn’t make it. We’ve seen the bulpen guys blow it enough already let’s try something new. Throw Pedro or Happ in the 9th and see what happens. It can’t get any worse can it? We’re gonna need a TON of innings out of our starters in the playoffs if we even want to win ONE series! This bulpen is absolutely dragging down a great team. OK. done venting….
Agreed, I thought the same thing this morning. The closer has to be Happ or Pedro. Whoever doesn’t start. I’d lean more toward Happ. Pedro has struggled to get loose in the first inning. That blown save hurt last night. It would have officially closed the books on the Marlins.
Pedro tends to give up early first inning runs before settling in (check his splits). Wouldn’t want him running in for the 9th.
I’m probably alone in this, but I think it’s a mistake to lump Madson in with Lidge. Madson gave up two ground ball hits (and an unfortunate HBP), got a ground ball DP, and struck out a batter swinging. Lidge gave up four screaming line drives (one of which was caught), walked a batter, and almost walked another batter (was lucky on a borderline called 3rd strike). Madson was 4-for-5 in save opportunities this month, and his last one was a high-pressure save of Pedro’s 1-0 gem over the Mets. It was just after that that Charlie inexplicably went back to Lidge full-time, and Lidge hasn’t had an appearance since then in which he hasn’t given up a run.
Another note on Madson: his run last night was the first 8th inning run he’s given up all month. He’s been pretty good in his usual role; we just don’t notice it because by nature we remember the failures for relievers. For the record: he’s 26 for 28 in 8th inning hold situations this year, 8 for 12 in 9th inning save situations. In two of his four blown 9th inning saves, he’s given up the tying run but kept the game tied (unlike most of Lidge’s blown saves, in which he gives up both the tying and winning runs, like last night). All this to say: Madson is a better option than most people think.
Final note on Lidge: he hasn’t had a single month this year when his ERA has been below 5.91. How’s that for being consistently bad the whole year? Most pitchers with that kind of record wouldn’t be on the roster, let alone the closer on a division winner. What was it that someone said? The definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting a different result …
You’re not alone, Guest. Thanks for the research. It’s got to be Madson from here on out. He might not be the best, but he’s the best we’ve got by a long shot.
Charlie pretty much laid it out after he removed Lidge from that game against the Nats on Sept 8th. He said he was going to mix it up between Madson and Myers, depending on who he thought would give the Phils the best chance of winnning on that particular day, while mixing Lidge in to continue getting him work and giving him the opportunity to retake the closer’s role as his sole domain.
So what do we have? Well, Myers is on the shelf with no solid timetable as to when he might return, no idea how effective he might be when he does, and no confidence that he will remain healthy the rest of the way, so you can’t count on him. If he gets himself back into the mix it will be a bonus.
Lidge continues to be a disaster and, if winning is as important to Charlie as he professes it to be, should not even be on the postseason roster, let alone continue to be put in save situations.
That leaves us with Madson as our best option. If not him, then who? Can’t be Condrey, Durbin, or Walker. Even if they were completely healthy, Eyre and Romero wouldn’t be options either. Moyer isn’t realistic. Neither is Pedro because, as Stu pointed out, his first inning of work is usually his least effective one (most likely because it takes him a little while to get loose/completely warm/settled in, as evidenced by the increasing mph and movement on his pitches as the game progresses).
Happ is a somewhat out-of-the-box suggestion who actually might be effective, but I can’t see Charlie just throwing him in there at this point in the season. Also, if Eyre and/or Romero are out of commission, Happ will probably be more urgently needed, and better used, in other situations.
Unfortunately, a combination of ineffectiveness and injuries has left us with limited options, as in probably only one. So I agree with you that Madson should be the guy.
bski - Interesting idea about using Happ as closer. For that to be even remotely possible, though, one would think he’d have to have a couple tries at it in the regular season. Actually, even Madson could use more save opportunities in the regular season. Unfortunately, I think Charlie M. is stuck on the idea of “getting Lidge right” and isn’t planning on trying anyone else. If Lidge turns out to be the reason for a lost Phillies playoff series, get ready for outrage of almost apocalyptic proportions among Phillie fandom — not just because of the frustration that goes with an ineffective closer but also because making the logical move to replace him has been obvious to everyone for several months now …
Trillo Fan,
Actually, Drew brought up using Happ as the closer in post #13. It is an interesting idea, but I merely gave my reasons for why I didn’t think it would happen.
I hope you’re wrong about Charlie. I do understand why he has stuck with Lidge this season, just not how long he has continued to do so. I went on the record about 6 weeks ago and said that my deadline for Lidge would have been the end of August at the very latest.
September is when you really want to get everything locked into place and get yourself playing good ball heading into the playoffs. In our case this year, deciding on a closer and getting him settled into the role is a big part of that—-and that takes time.
At this point, Charlie simply must stop trying to get Lidge right. If it hasn’t happened 151 games into the season, it’s not going to and no amount of wishing and hoping is going to change that. After he pulled Lidge from the closer role a couple weeks ago, Charlie said that he wanted to stick with him but that the most important thing was that they needed to win games. That hasn’t changed and the need will be even more acute in the postseason.
You’re right that Madson could use more save opportunities in the regular season. To that end, it’s time for Charlie to put Madson in the closer role to stay so that he knows he’s the guy, he gets a few more chances over the last 10 games, and he settles in for the playoffs. It’s our best chance, imo.
Great play by Bako to get Corey Hart at the plate, but that collision had visions of Paul Hoover flashing before my eyes!
Was talking to my dad about the closer situation (and his 60+ years of watching the Phils.) His take for the playoff swas basically you have 3 horses and you tell Lee, Blanton and Hamels that we need 9. Act as if you don’t have a closer (which is sadly true.)
Sort of old school, like before the whole closer thing became the norm, but it sounds like something I could see from Manuel. The way the playoffs are spread out and with these starters it just might work… And if a starter looks to be wearing down you bring in Happ or Pedro and tell them the same thing.
Closer? We don’t need no stinkin’ closer!
What do you think?
Pete,
Don’t know if you saw Keith Law’s chat from yesterday. There were a few Phillies tidbits, but here is the biggie:
AB (CT)
As a Phils fan, am I right in thinking that it’s unlikely Mike Taylor will ever become as good as Werth is now, and that they should try to extend Jayson on a 3 year deal for good money and look to trade Mike for pitching or a 3B prospect?
Keith Law
(2:32 PM)
The bigger question is whether Werth at $10MM or so is more valuable than Taylor at $400K PLUS whatever they can get for the difference between their salaries. I doubt it. And, as much as I like Jayson, he does kind of get hurt a lot, which is not the sort of thing that gets better with age.
Law is a little late to the discussion and he didn’t give you a nod for your “Trade Werth Not Taylor” topic of a few months ago either. Way to keep ahead of the “experts”.