4-game home set against the Ed Wade-run (into the ground) Astros? Horrifying! Impossible!
3-game road series against the NL-West leading Padres with their 3 best pitchers on the hill? Piece of cake! Bring it on!
Such is baseball. I think baseball fans tend to think that only their team is this schizophrenic, but as you can see by the Cardinals getting handled by the Nats and the Giants losing their series to the Diamondbacks, this is not a trend limited to Philadelphia, though sometimes it sure seems like it.
Miraculously, the Phillies hold a 1.5 game lead on the Giants in the Wild Card. I know that many people are looking more at the division race than anything else, but I’m focusing on the wild card, even if we take the lead in the division. With our rotation, all that matters is that we make the playoffs, not how.
2010: 73-57
2009: 76-54
2008: 71-59
2007: 68-62
The Good News
- Roy Oswalt since being acquired by the Phillies: 6 starts, 3-1, 2.18 ERA, 0.97 WHIP. We are officially spoiled. This guy should be being worshiped ala He-who-shall-not-be-named. I guess the first is always the most exciting. By the way, He-who-shall-not-be-named in his last 6: 6.20 ERA. Not hearing a lot of chirpin’ anymore.
- It took a LOT longer than it should have, but it appears Joe Blanton may have found a groove. He has a 2.81 ERA in his 5 August starts. As I mentioned in a previous post, Blanton has had some of, if not the, worst luck in baseball, and part of this is certainly just the world balancing out. But he’s been particularly good in his last 2 starts, so there is certainly an aspect of him actually pitching better.
- Jayson Werth is leading the NL in pitches per plate appearance again this season (4.37). I would not have guessed that.
- The good news on Cole Hamels: He’s on pace to be just the 29th pitcher and 8th lefty (seems like it should be more) to post a season of 215+ IP, sub 3.30 ERA (yes, he’s at 3.31) and more than a strikeout per inning. See below for the bad news.
The Bad News
- Chase Utley has a nice OBP since he’s been back (.373), but his complete lack of power is concerning to me. 0 HR and only 2 doubles in his 41 ABs. Hopefully it will come.
- Speaking of lack of power, or lack of everything… Ryan Howard is 4 for 33 with 4 singles, 1 walk and 1 RBI since returning from the DL.
- Re: #1 and #2 on this list. Let’s go, fellas.
- Going the opposite of Joe Blanton is Kyle Kendrick. Kendrick has a 5.53 ERA in his 5 August starts and is lucky to have a number that low. He’s allowed 47 baserunners in 27.2 IP for a horrible 1.69 WHIP. You wonder if Vance Worley or newly signed Nate Robertson might get a shot if he keeps faltering.
- The bad news on Hamels: He’s on pace for 10 wins, which would be lowest win total of any of the 29 pitchers (54 seasons). The current lowest in 12, by Ben Sheets on the 67-94 2004 Brewers.
Series Preview
Monday (10:10pm): Halladay vs. RHP Hiroki Kuroda (9-11, 3.56 ERA)
Tuesday (10:10pm): Kendrick vs. RHP Carlos Monasterios (3-4, 3.54 ERA)
Wednesday (3:10pm): Oswalt vs. LHP Clayton Kershaw (11-8, 3.01 ERA)
3 Questions for the Series
- Did the Phillies make a mistake not protecting Carlos Monasterios in the 2009 Rule 5 draft?
- Can Utley or Howard show some life?
- Can we continue our strange mastery of Clayton Kershaw (5 starts, 5.67 ERA)?
Series Prediction
It looks as though Manny will be joining the White Sox today, and we will not see him this series. It also looks as though the Dodgers, now sitting 10 games out of 1st and 6.5 out of the wild card, might be about ready to throw in the towel. Hopefully the Phillies can help them do it. Starting off the series, we face 2 decent, but not great righties. I’m hopeful that maybe Utley and/or Howard can get a little momentum going there. After the Astros and Padres results, I might as well just flip a coin for each game, but the Phillies should take 2 of 3, given the pitching match-ups and directions of the clubs.
Pete: the more you put up posts like this, the less I have to open my mouth.
Utley has swing but lacks power, Howard has power but has lost his swing. wonder which will return first.
Kuroda has always bothered us with his offspeed stuff.
isnt it about time we break the long ball savings jar, at least for this series? that line drive from Sweeney is bout the only seat crasher we’ve had in a while.
jkay-
re: the HRs.
This year as a team we are on pace for 157 HRs. Last year we hit 224. That’s a 30% drop. A big part of it is injuries, but pretty much everyone except Vic (who shouldn’t be trying to hit HRs) is way down over last year and the offense hasn’t picked it up in other areas.
Pete -
Not that it explains the entire 30% drop, but MLB in this “Year of the Pitcher” is on pace for an 8% decrease in HR from last year.
2010 MLB Total HR (through Sunday): 3712 (on pace for 4625)
2009 MLB Total HR: 5042
Utley may continue to lack power for the rest of the season – He may be ok to play his, hand/thumb can’t possibly be full strength yet. I’m happy with whatever hit he can get.
Nice article on fanhouse.com about our weekend in San Diego, not least because it also shows Phils fans some love (which you don’t see very often from an outside source).
Phillies fans, whether coming from near or far, found their way to Petco in large numbers. Red was the primary color behind the visiting dugout and down the third-base line for all of the three games.
Hundreds of Phillies fans made more noise than thousands of Padres fans, reminding everyone that shouting comes naturally to Philadelphians.
Come the playoffs, which, by the way, aren’t in the bag for either team, the Padres may be tempted to pipe noise into their sound system, unless Phillies fans are here to raise the decibel level.
Padres accountants wouldn’t complain. They felt the urge to holler “Y’all come back now” as the red-clad fans departed Petco. Padres tickets on Internet sites go unsold for under $10. Phillies fans and dozens of club employees who made the trip sat in $61 seats.
San Diego, like a lot of cities, is still gripped by the Great Recession. Phillies Nation is nearly recession-proof.
“The passion these people have for this team reminds me of when I was a kid in Boston,” said Scott Proefrock, the Phillies’ assistant general manager. “It’s an amazing affinity they have for this club.”
Hopefully more of those Phillies fans will be in LA for this series!!
Things will be interesting for the Phillies. The Braves struggle against their own division and are not that great on the road. The Phillies have a great record at home and are for now at 0.500 on the road. But damn those Braves are resilient. This a Phillies’ clone right there.
b.ski: nice find.
A nice blurb on Trevor May from Baseball Prospectus…
This guy should be being worshipped ala He-who-shall-not-be-named.>>
There’s a lot of truth in that. And fortunately, there is no reason at all to think it can’t happen the rest of the way, and next year, which he didn’t do. But it’s also factual that he did have some regular season down moments, and it’s on the books that he did it in money time. He’s getting an extra day between starts, let’s see if that helps. But Roy O and Sweeney are true Phillies, whether or not Alex is finally a true Yankee, whatever the hell that qualifies as.
<<Kendrick has a 5.53 ERA in his 5 August starts and is lucky to have a number that low.>>
Regarding Kendrick tomorrow night, I can give a couple reasons that we might be optimistic. While I haven’t checked his record at Dodger Stadium, its well known what a pitcher’s park it is. It brought out some unique quality in Chan Ho in his early years. And say what you want about KK, including inconsistent, but inconsistent means some good, too. So my suspicion at this point is that percentages are with him tomorrow.
<<I’m focusing on the wild card, even if we take the lead in the division. With our rotation, all that matters is that we make the playoffs, not how.>>
I do find that pretty sensible. I almost could sign up with no hesitation for the win if we’re in bandwagon. You almost make me feel like I’ve wasted time rooting against the Braves of late. It would almost fit the script of this crazy season if the first time we had HFA was in the Series, and thanks to Brian McCann.
Here are the HR by club standings going into tonight in our League, as well as OPS.
Homers OPS
Brewers 153 Reds .773
Reds 151 Brewers .769
Zona 151 Rox .761
Rox 137 Cards .750
Cubs 131 Braves .748
Cards 128 Giants .736
Phils 126 Cubs .733
Fish 125 Phils .729
Giants 122 Fish .727
Nats 120 Dodgers .717
Pads 106 Pads .699
Pirates 99 Nats .698
Mets 97 Mets .683
Dodgers 96 Pirates .,668
Stros 87 Astros .662
And we’re 6th in ERA. And 6th in runs scored. I’m not seeing that big a deal in any power shortage. I don’t know the RISP standings, but it seems like timely hitting would be better improved than homers. We’ve been shutout 10 times, but only the Rockies and Cubs at 8 and 9 are better, but maybe the low scoring games are the problem. But even there, we’re 5th in The League in runs scored.
Maybe we’re pretty good but not great at a lot of things. Being able to win a lot of different ways is often a key. And I know people keep crituiqing the separate units, one week, the concern is the pen, the next it’s the offense, can the starting pitching keep up, etc. But it’s often about one area picking up another, and on the whole, it looks like we’re doing okay at that, or we wouldn’t be smack in the middle of the hunt. How many clubs do you see contending 4 years in a row these days? I mean fine tuning is okay, and I know 16 runs, or whatever it is in 10 games is putrid, and maybe we’re inconsistent, but on the whole, we look pretty good. Am I missing something?
Rollins 6, Utley 4, Polanco 5, Howard 3, Werth 9, Ibanez 7, Victorino 8, Ruiz 2, Halladay 1
the frustrating thing is that everyone feared the phils offense a few years back. with relatively the same core, they have not played up to expectations because they used to be so good. no one expects Rollins to have a repeat of his MVP season, but .250 is not going to cut it. victorino is not the same. utley had an MVP season until he got hit on the hand. Howard is going through a slump similar to the 1st half of 2008, which was so painful to watch. production from 3rd base and catcher are better this year. however, the production has not been able to overcome the struggles of the lead off man, as well as the middle of the lineup.
the phillies offense is currently middle of the pack, but we have seen they are capable of doing a lot better. were they just lucky in 07? is this a sign of aging? will we ever see the utley of 07 again?
Harry Leroy Halladay pitches for the Fightins tonight. And as the objective is to win the ballgame, nothing wrong with rooting for him to advance in quest of his 2nd Cy Young in 3 years.
Doc can tie for the League lead in wins with a W tonight.
He’s already the ERA leader, looking to protect that.
Mat Latos leads him in WHIP, 0.98 to 1.02. Some congestion in the low 1′s, but Doc could get close to Latos tonight.
Those looking for a reason to vote against Doc can look at the homerun column. While he’s pitched more innings, his total of 16 given up does nothing to embellish his candidacy.
I could go into more detail, K’s, walks, numerous categories.
The bottom line is that Doc will be taking the mound for the first time this year with a chance to increase his lead in the Cy Young race. He’s passed Ubaldo, AW has lost 3 straight and he’ll get support as it stands now, but Doc
at this point leads the field. Barring a series of great starts by the likes of Tim Hudson, or AW, Doc pretty much controls his destiny to the extent that his individual performance allows. As is the case eery time he takes the mound, I’d look for him to feed off that.
Ran across some numbers earlier that speak to potential weaknesses in the Phils. We’re 49-11 when scoring first. We’re 24-46 when the opposition does that. We’re 9-39 when trailing after 6. 6-45 when trailing after 7. When leading after 6 or 7, our record is real good. So all those numbers above balance out okay, but as the experience of following the club this year has clearly shown without numbers, we’re not showing the comeback ability of prior years. But Jonathan Broxton is in the park tonight.
.
utley had an MVP season until he got hit on the hand.>>
You don’t mean this year, right?
‘Not King’ Cole, having left his hometown of San Diego by luxury coach transport with 8 wins on his deluxe pocket calculator, is but 1 away from matching lefty Mike Mimbs ’95 win total of 9. With 32 games and maybe 7 starts left, he’ll have to be a tidy dirt farmer from
here to meet Omar “the Junkman” Daal’s ’01 win total of 13. Near-perfection to the regular season’s conclusion would most likely perch him in the thinner air of Tommy Underwood ’75, who rocked the house with 14 portside wins.
It’s now in vogue to assert that seasonal win totals are poor indicators of a starting pitcher’s actual performance level. A stumpy but steely
competitor from the Sheepshead Bay section of Brooklyn by the name of Vince Lombardi disagreed with that notion, with the conviction of the priest that he opted not to become, with the vehemence of the Super Bowl Championship head coach that he became.
Moundwise: If not a W? An ND is notched. Or a dreaded L. The qualities of consistency, mental and physical toughness, combativeness, and the ability to SURMOUNT imposed conditions are embedded in that final encodement, or not. ” … the only thing.”
Sunday substance was served by the Phillies’ high-profiled lefthander. Anyone from Cape May Point to Point Loma could see that. A tip of the cap. Yes, just a tip of the cap. More work to be done.
no. remember that year when he hit .330 , then got hit by lannan? it was lannan’s 1st major league start and hit howard 1 batter later to get ejected. iguchi had to replace him for a month…can’t remember if it was 07 or 08. anyways, my point is that we overate his offensive abilities because of that one season. make no mistake he is a good hitter, but he is not an elite hitter.
Barner-
Gotta disagree. Utley has been an elite hitter/player for several years prior to this one. Did you by chance catch the World Series last year?
His NL ranks in WAR since 2005…
2005 NL 6.2 (5th)
2006 NL 5.7 (8th)
2007 NL 6.6 (5th)
2008 NL 6.6 (5th)
2009 NL 7.7 (2nd)
His defense contributes to that – make no mistake about it that he’s an elite hitter. His OPS this year is over 100 points lower than his average over the last 5 years.
Halladay, great to this date (with a few wrinkles). Oswalt, more fun to watch. Grinding automaton vs. peppery, relative pipsqueak. One person’s opinion.
Both, it’s fair to say, have requisite live arms, know-how and pitch location command.
“It’s now in vogue to assert that seasonal win totals are poor indicators of a starting pitcher’s actual performance level. “
I’m not sure I’d say “in vogue.” That infers it will go away. If anything, the universal value of the W will likely continue to drop.
Let’s look at Hamels…
April 18th vs. FLA… Hamels goes 8 innings, allows 2 runs, Phils score 1
May 4th vs. STL… Hamels goes 8, gives up 1 run, Phillies score 1 run, win in extras
June 7th vs. SD… Hamels goes 8, allows 2 runs on 3 hits, Phils score 1
July 17th vs. Cubs… Hamels allows 1 run in 7 innings, Phillies score 0 runs – then score 4 in 9th.
July 22nd vs. STL…. Hamels goes 8 scoreless, Phillies score 0 runs in the first 10 innings, score 2 in 11th
August 7th vs. Mets… Phillies score 0 runs, Hamels allows 1, loses 1-0
August 13th vs. Mets…. Phillies score 0 runs, Hamels allows 1, loses 1-0
There are 7 starts where Hamels went an average of 7.2 IP, giving up a TOTAL of 8 runs (1.33 ERA) and ended up with a record of 0-4.
Here’s my question. What exactly was he supposed to do that he didn’t. Particularly in the games where the Phillies scored ZERO runs while he was pitching?
More support on the positivity of Cole’s year.
http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/cole-hamels-win-loss-record-doesnt-show-it-but-hes-having-a-great-season.php
i agree he is an elite 2nd baseman. but when you compare only the offensive side to players that play different positions, he is a step below pujols, votto, tulowitzki, etc. the averages of his BA between 07 and 10 is around .300. to me, that is borderline elite assuming his power comes along with the average. maybe i underestimate how often he has played hurt the past 3 years or so. if he is healthy next year and has a similar season to 2006, i will definitely view him as elite but until he is not hurt, i dont know
This Dodgers’ series is a set-up for disappointment. Phils’ had their tail between legs after ‘Stros, headed (gratefully) for SD and the “ease” of the California skies/culture. Following rebounding sweep of Pads, urgency’s edge has softened and they face a Dodger’s team that still has a shot (though a long one) at a WC berth, and one that still has a
formidable pitching staff. Phillies sweeps in that beautiful setting of Dodger Stadium are rare in the best of times. Their work is cut out for the next 3 days. My guess is 2-1, either way, probably Dodgers’.
Pete, Expectation of the “ace” that he’s long been billed as: 0 runs – match, 1 run – surmount. High standard, sure. Comes with that territory. He did autograph a 6.7 million/9.5 million/11 million results-expectant contract. Losing well doesn’t cut it. Unless of course your contract is guaranteed.
I’m not real keen on seeing Loney up with men on. That guy is the one to stop, due respect to Ethier, but that’s what’s setup now. Kemp is tough to double
jjg -
I get your point, but you didn’t answer my question.
“What exactly was he supposed to do that he didn’t. Particularly in the games where the Phillies scored ZERO runs while he was pitching?”
I’ll take that as consolation. Again, good fundamental baseball, something we went back to against the Padres.
Kuroda was waived on Friday. Flipped tomorrow, he’d be playoff eligible. He’d be a good pick up for the Reds if Coletti’s inclined to move him. Not sure if anyone claimed him.
Howard is still a liability at 1st base-no reflexes
Kuroda makes like 15 mil according 2 ESPN !!!!!
Pete, Did answer. In games that the Phillies score zero, he should hold opponent to zer0 … that’s called matching or meeting the challenge. If he doesn’t, hard as it may sound, he’s a loooooooser, technically and fundamentally speaking.
See if we can get something going here. It’s early, but you kinda get the feeling it would be a good idea to get into their pen as early as possible. They are dinking em out against Doc, but he doesn’t look especially sharp. Hpefully he finds his groove soon.
Wheels just said we killed Kuroda lst year in the playoffs. yeah, on short rest, or back from injury, or something worthy of a capital asterisk. The guy can pitch.
Kuroda makes like 15 mil according 2 ESPN !!!!!>>
Well, according to me, he’s a free agent at season’s end. But the world wide leader always reports things first, so feel free to go with them.
check it out, the Phils are being no hit.
nice tweet from Gelb
Congrats to J.A. Happ on his two-hit shutout of the Cardinals. Classy guy. Wish him the best. >>
Be nicer if the boys at Fangraphs tweeted something like that. Not a bad year on the whole, and has pitched pretty well when he’s pitched.
How many losers can be called a World Series MVP? The polar opposite award of a loser. The best player on the best team. I’m happy to load up with losers.
Loser pitchers since 1955, the first year the award was given: Josh Beckett, Curt Schilling, Randy Johnson, Mariano Rivera, Livan Hernandez, John Wettleland, Tom Glavine, Jack Morris, Jose Rijo, Dave Stewart, Orel Hershiser, Frank Viola, Bret Saberhagen, Rollie Fingers, Mickey Lolitch, Bob Gibson, Sandy Koufax, Ralph Terry, Whitey Ford, Larry Sherry, Bob Turley, Lew Burdette, Don Larson, Johnny Podres and Cole Hamels.
if he had short hair, a beard and a lower voice, would people think differently of him? I think so.
Well, that was better. I was gonna listen to the Dodger feed tonight, but Steve Lyons comes on and says Halladay givses up a lot of hits, he just spreads them out. I figured I better switch back. At least I know it’s bad, but I expect it. Anyway, Doc did better and we have the top of the order. But every out is valuble. Never to early to start a comeback.
if he had short hair, a beard and a lower voice, would people think differently of him? I think so.>>
I wouldn’t. Kid’s a winner, and seems like good people.
Larry Shelly>>
Sherry. Watch those typos web host.
That’d be so cool if Kuroda threw a no-no and got traded the next day. I mean, wow.
fixed
game proceeding in typical Phils fashion; they lure their opponents into a trap by lulling them with ineptitude, until…they STRIKE!
so err, we’ll just wait till then, then.
Kuroda dominating with only fastball and change.
this is dumb.
Pads are getting trounced again. 6-2, T6. They probably don’t miss us. But I miss them.
Kuroda dominating with only fastball and change.>>
very good point. That hadn’t dawned on me, but he does seem to be throwing harder than usual.
fixed>>
fixed?
that’s not fair! When will we fix the 1-2 typos I have done?
alright, we need a good at bat.
we still need a good at bat
Scott Franzke, talking about fans donating “gently used equipment.” L.A. quips “the Phillies can donate their bats – gently used.”
ESPN just claimed that Kuroda has a perfect game through 5.
This is confusing to me.
He hit a batter, but it doesn’t count as a BB. Then he got Ibanez to ground into a double play. So he’s faced the minimum, has no hits, walks or errors, but allowed a baserunner.
Would that be a perfect game if he continues? I don’t know if ESPN is wrong or not.
I’m off to bed. Hopefully wake up to some good news.
Also, I loathe Rod Barajas. Truly.
fucking Rod Barajas has not stopped killing us.
frag! Wes Helms, these damn ex-Phillies piss me off.
I’d tell you a comeback win on a night like tonight would do wonders for team psyche, but we’ve been through this so many times. Doc’s perfect game had no follow through. Madson blew a save in ATL, and you’d have thought we’d lose 10 in a row, but we won the next 2 there. I don’t recall the Broxton comeback helping the next night. Anyway, there’s just no rhyme or reason to the swings of momentum.
Would that be a perfect game if he continues? I don’t know if ESPN is wrong or not.>>
I might be wrong, but my understanding of the definition of a perfect game is no baserunners. 27 up, 27 down.
Pete, You’re thin-skinned tonight. My comment spoke specifically to your specific question. It asserted that he’s a loser in that instance
that you posed. You jumped the shark.
Hamels is obviously a pretty good pitching talent. May develop into a great, though I doubt it. At the same time, he’s been coddled and overhyped by the Philly swarm of organizational hotshots, journalistic sycophants and doting fans. What to make of that but indulgence, fantasy and a cycle of commerce?
need to check that oolong tea in mr. kuroda’s water bottle.
consistently throwing mid 90s.
I can’t pinpoint it, but I still think we have a good shot at getting back in this. Dodger deflation off the first hit, their bullpen (not that it’s bad, but it can be).
I just don’t think we’re beat. Sometimes, a night like this would, but not tonight. Assuming we keep it here,and unfortunately Barajas will bat again at some point. Oh, well. that’s my sentiment.
in case it wasn’t mentioned on the broadcast, Barajas is 18-34 with 8 dingers since 08 against us. Pretty impressive.
Chooch or Ibanez will probably break it up.
but looks like an L for Halladay tonight.
Obviously, vengeance against Chris Wheeler and his hairpiece.
Breaking up no-hitters has been Werth’s claim this year (2).
I have seen everything now.
Honestly, I just don’t see Kiroda throwing a no hitter. I have no idea why.
Breaking up no-hitters has been Werth’s claim this year (2).>>
Do you know what innings and against who?
Sentiment. Or wishful thinking. Or instinct. Or paranormal vision.
No, I don’t Ken. Was just mentioned on broadcast the other day though.
I just wondered. I’ll take a walk here
alright, tying run in the hole. Shame it’s Vic, but hey.
The whole key for this guy has been location. He’s just not making mistakes.
it’s always the little things. Let’s see if Werth’s aggressiveness causes a delay, ruins Kuroda’s momo, and Vic can do something.
Vic, and he’s not what he was in the clutch a few weeks back lately, but here comes Chooch. Now let’s get back in this sucker.
Ooh, that was a fat one. Deserved to lose that no-hitter.
Chooch may go fould ball happy no. run the pitches up, and wait for a good 1. There’s 1.
Chooch is really good at extending counts.
Chooch. Street-fighting man.
Chooch. Wounded pride.
so Sweeney against Kuo. I don’t see Mike walking. Maybe he hits 1 hard, and hope for the best.
Giants lead Zona 1-0 in the 7th. sanchez has the shutout. Pads did lose.
wonder if Herndon knows this is a meaningful appearance. Little surprised Charlie went this way.
seems Charlie doesnt have a high opinion of Broxton.
he’s managing like its going into extras.
Top-of-order hope. Fairly slim, given bats lately. But lightning strikes.
Charlie, managing all-out here. J.C., Mr. BB.
Last year, somewhere around this time, we were in a funk that prompted a lot of one and done playoff looks ahead. My convictional feeling at that time was what we’re doing now doesn’t have a lot to do with what will be happening a month from now. That’s generally a hard core truth in baseball, but more circumstances are different now than I can count. A year ago, a division lead, better numbers as recent support, a year younger, and probably 750 more.
I find a lot less comfort in that feeling this time around. I don’t mind losing to a well pitched game, but setting pitchers up to accomplish that by helping them with alarming frequency is getting a little old.
Yesterday, commentator Jim Bowden discussed largely Howard, but might as well have talked about Utley in saying he wasn’t concerned, guys lose time, and they need 50ish at bats to get it back together. Regretfully, we’re at that point. Howard didn’t strike out last night, but hit 2 popups. The nicest thing I can say about popups is they give you time to settle your blood pressure back down by the time they reach the defender’s glove.
So have we reached the point of decisive action time?
We play Milwaukee this weekend. Face the likes of Dave Bush, Randy Wolf and Yovani Dallardo. That’s not a bad threesome. But you have to draw the line somewhere. And it’s not Maddux, Glavine and Smoltz.
Hopefully, it’s a moot point by then. And while it’s just thinking in my own mind, it’s still a helluva lot of pressure to put on a lineup of beleagured hitters.
At the least, you have to think about a batting order shuffle. But dying with who brung you to the dance doesn’t seem comforting. Even with other contenders scuffling along. But I’d think that if we’re not showing signs of life by Sunday, it’s time to try something fresh. I suspect Charlie is on the same schedule.
KB, Jayson Werth, 2-time vanquisher of 2010 no-hitter dreams:
8/7 Johan Santana double to open bottom of 7th /Mets W 1-0
8/26 Wandy Rodriguez single to open bottom of 5th /Astros W 5-1
Wonder no more.
If Rod Barajas played a full 162 game season against only the Phillies, based on his career numbers against us, here’s what that season would look like:
.348 BA, .378 OBP, .768 SLG, 62 HR, 154 RBI, 39 2B, 123 R
Compared to his season actually PLAYING for the Phillies:
.230 BA, .350 OBP, .393 SLG, 4 HR, 10 RBI, 8 2B, 16 R
Don’t look now, Colorado is only 3.5 games back in the Wild Card
8/7 Johan Santana double to open bottom of 7th /Mets W 1-0
8/26 Wandy Rodriguez single to open bottom of 5th /Astros W 5->>
I’ll stay away from the were there men on joke. He seems to have his head in the game lately, and I can’t ask a whole lot more than that.
<<Colorado is only 3.5 games back in the Wild Card>>
With 3 teams in front of them. 3 pretty inconsistent teams. If you dug deep into the psyches of the players on the Rox, Phils, Giants and Cards, I guarantee you, without a shadow of a doubt that you would get results that show the Rox with the most confidence heading into the final month. That team actually believes that their patented late season runs are a birthright.
Be a good time for Ubaldo to get a 2nd wind. We might regret rooting for them against the Braves when they pulled that 10-1 comeback.
Rockies are a very poor road team, and they don’t fare well against the Dodgers either at home or on the road. This last series win against LA, at home, was their first since 2008, and it’s even worse at Dodger Stadium.
Kuroda is a FA next year, but his salary for 2010 is $15 mil
need to check that oolong tea in mr. kuroda’s water bottle.
Better watch those accusations, jkay.
I drink oolong tea regularly. Does that mean I need to submit a urine and/or a blood sample for testing?
17-12 through the first 29 of the final 60 games – need to get to 37 wins. We need to go 20-11 rest of way to assure a playoff spot. A win tonight puts us pretty close to the pace we need – even with the Astro disaster.
Halladay (9-3) (4-2)Hamels (8-4) (2-4)Oswalt (8-4 (5-1)Blanton (6-6) (4-2)Kendrick (6-6) (2-3)
Oswalt and Blanton on or above their pace. The rest are lagging.
to get to phillyfan’s pace, we need to win every series from now on out, with sweeps giving us a 1 game cushion. this team is too inconsistent to do that. 17-12 is a .587 winning percentage. there is no way the phils finish 20-11, which is a .645 winning percentage which in other words, means winning 2 out of every 3 games.
Kuroda is a FA next year, but his salary for 2010 is $15 mil>>
I’d like to make clear first that I’m not perfect. But one thing I always do is at least try to present facts as accurate, and if I post something from memory, I attach a degree of confidence to it. But I’d like to suggest to you to be real careful what you post here if your crdibility is important to you at all. And whether it is or isn’t, it’s kind of disrespectful to post information that is inaccurate. What you do with that is your business, but for whatever my opinion is worth, you came on here 1 night and said Carlos Ruiz was hurt when that was pure speculation that you stated as fact, and now, you’ve posted inaccurate information on Kuroda’s salary. It’s a lot of money, but you wouldn’t want to pay me the difference of what it is versus what you said it was, let alone attaching ESPN’s name to it. No offense, and nothing personal, I just felt it important to say something even though I have no authority here. Cot’s carries all player financial compensation if you’d care to pursue the matter, which I don’t, having made my point.
http://espn.go.com/mlb/players/profile?playerId=28950
thank you ken. i am not trying to sound like a hater but that is why i said you made a foolish conclusion about the Ruiz situation. the lack of information just pisses me off.
pete: dino was the guy that got pissed at you for saying the astros were better than the dodgers to answer your question from a previous post.
Kendrick is 2-3 with an 8.14 ERA against LA.
He’s 0-2 against LA in 2 starts there.
Paul Hoover’s the 3rd catcher, effective tomorrow.
Let me try this again, and ignore the above on Kendrick. 0-2 12.46 in 2 starts at LA
He’s 2-3 8.14 in 5 starts overall against them.
“you” in the 2nd line of post 92 was meant for dino
to settle this Kuroda thing…
he has a base salary of $13 million this season, but is being paid part of his signing bonus as well – so he is likely making the ESPN number.
Dino – just cite sources for stuff more.
Rollins SS,
Polanco 3B,
Utley 2B,
Howard 1B,
Werth RF,
Ibanez LF,
Victorino CF,
Schneider C,
Kendrick P.
3rd straight time Schneider is catching Kendrick (at least). I assume they have info that makes them think Kendrick can work effectively with Ruiz. Nice righty bench depth tonight when they go Kuo.
good humor from Jim Bowden, XM Radio
Radar Gun that clocked Chapman at 105mph has tested positive for PED’s; 50 game suspension >>
You know who is as good as us at showing off the no hit skill? Tampa Bay. Hitless through 4 tonight. Perfected by te Oakland pitcher (Darren Bearden?), almost no hit again (Shawn Marcum maybe?). And at it so far tonight against Ricky Romero and Toronto.
According to Fangraphs, in 2005, RyHo swings were at 25.2% outside the strike zone. In 2010, he is swinging at pitches outside the strike zone 34.5%.
That was his rookie year.
When he swings at pitches outside the strike zone, he makes contact 47.6% of the time. That completely dwarfs any previous year. That contact wouldn’t figure to be especially powerful since they are balls.
The pitches he swings at that are inside the strike zone that he makes contact with is a career high 83 per cent. That stat would suggest a power driven year.
Ryan is seeing 42 per cent of pitches thrown to him in the strike zone. That’s a full 2 per cent lower than any other year, which was as high as 49 per cent in 2005.
Of all pitches that he swings at, Ryan is making contact 69 per cent of the time. That’s a tie for career best at 69%. So he’s making contact as frequently as 2005, but swinging at a near 10% higher outside the strike zone.
Kuo has had elbow problems throughout his career, and rarely pitches 2 games back to back. The very few times that he has pitched back to back, like he did against the Phillies this season, was to face one batter in the 2nd game.
Kuo has had elbow problems throughout his career, and rarely pitches 2 games back to back.>>
Great, then we neutralize Sherrill, which 2 minor leaguers could do. So I guess Dotel is their closer tonight, if they need one.
Lee is not looking sharp again against….Kansas City. Thrown 69 pitches in less than 3 IP, made 2 bad throws in the field.
Anybody recall exactly how long his “rough” period was for the Phillies last year ?
The Cardinals are getting 2 hit tonight (Wandy). 3-0, 7th. Cincy leads 8-3, late. That’d be 7. Tomorrow, Suppan replaces Garcia (season innings concerns against HOU, Cincy throws Cueto at Milwaukee. So the Reds could lead the Cards by 8 games going into the weekend series against each other. That would be one major regrouping if TLR can get his troops refocussed enough to get it together for even the wild card race. And we think the Phils are a disappointment.
http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=hyatt-001aus
Austin Hyatt, Forida State League Pitcher of the Year
how long his “rough” period was for the Phillies last year ?>>
4 starts. maybe 5 tops. 6 would really, really surprise me.
upon looking at his gamelog, 5 of his last 7 regular season starts were real bad.
In all Hollywood’s years, all those movies, I doubt any scene was done on 1 take. Yet, here we are, and this game is already playing the script to perfection plus.
Austin Hyatt, Forida State League Pitcher of the Year…
he is too old for me. unfortunately i am not excited
unfortunately i am not excited>>
perhaps Kendrick is exciting you?
hopefully this coaching visit to the mound is to tell Kendrick he’s been demoted.
wow what an escape…
hopefully that double play gives Kendrick confidence for the rest of the game.
CAN OUR EFFING OFFENSE PLEASE SCORE 10 RUNS OR SO ONE OF THESE DAYS
Werth is quietly creeping towards 50 doubles
It’s definitely a good sign that we’re making some excellent contact.
They really might as well walk Vic
I don’t know that they did that on purpose, but there was zero need to give Vic much to hit.
boy does that figure. I couldn’t have misread that one inch more.
Brian Schneider > Everyone else on the team
You would think Kendrick settles down.
Pete, on the whole, do you like Schneider? I find him “okay.”
he’s okay – hes had some huge hits this year though
well, that was a huge contribution. Glad to have got that one. Now if he can lure a decent start out of our pitcher.
Nice enough inning. Used the defense. I don’t know what was up with that leadoff 3-0 on Belliard. Sometimes you wanna strangle this guy.
The Stros are 9 back of the Cards, and 10 under .500. I wonder how close they can get to them and even.
meh that was a gimme.
but credit for getting it out.
We’ll see how this plays out, but Howard’s hit the ball hard twice now. I’d say if he has a couple more good at bats, Charlie has to think seriously about letting him go against Kershaw tomorrow. I don’t know the matchup numbers, but they can’t be too bad since CK has pitched without success against us.
not sure about that. Howard can be a tease sometimes like Werth and Victorino; look good for a second and revert back once he tastes some sort of success. need further evidence.
Tronsco about just delivered extra batting practice to Howard there.
I figure if he’s swinging well, let him keep going. It’s not so much that it was a homer, it was good contact hit to the middle of the field. He hit the double play hard. I mean a day off wouldn’t kill him, but he had one Sunday, and I think he needs a good deal of repetition.
Aroldis Chapman pitched the 8th for Cincy. 8 pitches, as high as 102, 7 for strikes. Nice debut.
have a good night jkay, I’m out.
night.
hope you dont see a funny score when you wake up tomorrow.
Kendrick needing DP help now.
ruiz vs. broxton.
should be interesting
Pete, Regarding your comment: “If anything, the universal value of the W will likely continue to drop” … Rather wild speculation, wouldn’t you say? When did MLB become a game of Twister, where losers are winners and winners are losers, and everyone falls on the floor laughing? The day that an 8-10 pitcher is deemed to be functioning elitely is the day when MLB’s popularity will plummet.
That distinguished list of 25 “best player[s] on the best team[s]” was a veritable card trick. Hamels inclusion was factual, of course, but the fact was a result of his being the hottest pitcher on the luckiest team of ’08 … weak NL East field, flawed LA, unyeasty Brewers, infant Rays (affording avoidance of deeper, gamier RS or Yanks) of ’08 … for 2 games and 13 innings (!), 1 win and a 2.77 ERA … somebody had to win it [average to a measure-above average pitchers Livan Hernandez, Ralph Terry, Larry Sherry and Don Larsen understandably said "Welcome"; the rest cringed at the association ... their dispositions may change, but it'll take more than time].
KB, re post 90: Facts are inherently accurate. Blog presentations, entirely different matters. Attaching a degree of confidence to memory is sometimes pinning the tail on a donkey. That you or any other contributor here is not perfect is a simple article of unyielding faith.
“It’s kind of disrespectful to post information that is inaccurate.” If I may be so bold to suggest an amendment: It’s kind of disrespectful to intentionally post information that is inaccurate. The human aspect, including common mistakes and unique ”misapprehensions”, is welcome to this rhetorical party, I presuppose and aver. If memory serves astutely, your recent assertion of Manny pick-up cost to interested parties was far afield of reality.
Shall we move on with the work of the Constitution?
jjg,
It’s not wild speculation at all. The value of a pitching win has gone down as sabermetrics become more widely used. Sabermatricians more or less disregard the win as a way of evaluating a pitchers performance. It’s clear that this is moving into the mainstream more as well.
Look no further than last year’s Cy Young winners, who won 15 and 16 games respectively.
The win for a pitcher is not as valuable as it used to be when pitchers routinely went 8-9 innings. Now there are many more factors in play that determine whether or not they win a game. If Cole Hamels got 2 3-run HRs a game like Kendrick did last night, he would have won all 7 games I listed above and be sitting at 15-6. He would also be the same exact pitcher. 8-10, 15-6, same pitcher. That alone should tell you the unreliability of the W-L stat.
Felix Hernandez could very well win the AL Cy Young this year. He currently stands at 10-10. Why? Because he plays for the Mariners, who average 3.25 runs a game. The Yankees average 5.43 runs a game, allowing a pitcher who has pitched as poorly as Javier Vasquez (4.86 ERA) to have a better W-L record (10-9) than Felix, who is quietly having a historic season. Felix is on pace for a 2.38 ERA, 260 IP and 245 K. No AL pitcher has done that w/o steroids (Clemens in 1997) since Ron Guidry in 1978.
Can you tell me with a straight face that King Felix wouldn’t have a markedly better W-L record if he pitched for the Yankees? His W/L would probably look a lot like CC Sabathia’s (18-5), who averages almost a full IP less per start with an ERA almost a full run higher. Does that make CC Sabathia a much better pitcher than Felix? Or just a pitcher on a much better offense club with one the best closers in the business?
Back to Hamels. He has had preposterously bad luck this year from a run support/blown save perspective. The stat I presented in the actual post above shows that clearly. Pitchers who pitch as well as he has don’t win only 10 games without some serious help from their offense and bullpen.
Hamels, the same exact guy, went 15-5 in 2007 with nearly identical numbers across the board to what he has now. If anything, they are better this year. So is he a 15-5 pitcher or an 8-10 pitcher? He’s the same person. Same personality, same drive, same everything. Different circumstances and luck led to the W-L record. That 15-5 record and the fact that he stepped up big time and the biggest situation in the 2008 playoffs, are enough to tell me that his record this year does not reflect his winning “attitude” or whatever you want to call it.
If one were to look at that scientifically, they would quickly and easily conclude that a W-L record is a variable that the pitcher has some control over, but on the list of things that actually show how well they are pitching, it would fall near the bottom below ERA, WHIP, K/9, BB/9 and HR/9.
You know, Kyle Kendrick has a winning record.
When arguments and assertions about the abilities, “heart”, and accomplishments of real-life athletes are reduced to the idiotic slogans on the very passe “No Fear ” T-shirts (“second place is just the first Loser”, etc.), we are indeed well into the post-mod area inhabited by comic book sportsmen, romantic adolescent dreams and other imaginary creatures and scenarios.
Real athletes drip blood, get hurt, break bones. Some play with unremitting tenacity but ALL eventually will lose. No amount of macho posturing, or “hip” cynicism can transcend those limitations, except, of course, if your ideals are Santa Claus or Spiderman.
Surprised Sweeney didn’t get the start today against the tough lefty. I guess Charlie wants to see if Ry-Ho can get some more momentum going.
<<If Cole Hamels got 2 3-run HRs a game like Kendrick did last night, he would have won all 7 games I listed above and be sitting at 15-6. He would also be the same exact pitcher. 8-10, 15-6, same pitcher.>>
Pete – this is where you argument breaks down IMHO. It is the fallacy in the backward application of statistics. The fact is we don’t know what events would transpire IF things happen differently. It is just like the arguemnt (which drives me nuts) when learned football people will say after a 2-point loss “If Akers would have hit that chip shot field goal at the end of the first half, then we would have won.” NOOOOO! You can’t say that – because every decision/play that unfolds after that woul dhave been different then what actually occurred. And we don’t know how those scenarios/plays would have turned out.
If Hamels is staked to an early 3-0 lead we don’t know if the game would have unfolded and he would have gone 7 innings and given up 0 or 1 run and gotten a win. There are amillion variables. Instead of facing the opposing pitcher 3 times, the other manager would have pinch hit at least one of those times – so perhaps the pinch hitter starts a rally? With a three run lead, Ruiz calls a different game. Probably more fastballs. Who knows if Hamels executes them correctly? Very likely, as is his penchant, he gives up one or two gofer balls that he may not have when he is bearing down and pitching more conservative in a tie game. The whole mental aspect of pitching with a lead is different. Maybe he pitches better when he is in a duel or behind a run or two because he concentrated more.
Sooo – am I saying that we then look only at record to estimate the quality of a pitcher. Of course not. Nobody would say Kendrick was a better pitcher. But one cannot say it is meaningless. Carlton did go 27-10 on a horrible team and I am sure he didn’t average 5 runs per game of support in each. He needs to do what it takes to get more wins, or more no decisions if the team just ins’t scoring.
And am I really comprehending correctly that people are surprized Howard is starting over I guy with one foot in retirement? This is Ryan Howard folks.
18-12 through the first 30 of the final 60 games – need to get to 37 wins. We need to go 19-11 rest of way to assure a playoff spot.
Halladay (9-3) (4-2)
Hamels (8-4) (2-4)
Oswalt (8-4 (5-1)
Blanton (6-6) (4-2)
Kendrick (6-6) (3-3)
wonder how Ryan has fared against Kershaw
>>> This is Ryan Howard folks.
and might I also add to refute; This IS Ryan Howard folks.
well, stay tuned I guess.
Phillyfan-
I think it’s pretty obvious I was exaggerating to make a point. Yes, he absolutely might have pitched differently, but do you really think he would have gone 0-4 in those 7 games?
And your point about variables is exactly my point as well. I prefer to measure pitchers with the stats that have the LEAST variables and have the most to do with their individual performance.
The stats with the least variables are K/9 and BB/9 rate because the ball doesn’t enter play on either of these and the fielders are not involved.
Then comes WHIP, which is baserunners per inning, and adds the variable of defense.
Then H/9, which has more defense involved than WHIP because it doesn’t include walks.
Then ERA, which excludes un-earned runs and can be inflated more easily than the other numbers.
Then W/L, whose variables include all of the above, plus the opposing pitcher, your offense, your bullpen and everything else that happens in a game.
I primarily look at W/L records when looking at someones career, because much the luck stuff evens out (for the most part). On a season-to-season basis, it can be all over the place. A perfect example being Hamels 2007 (15-5) vs. 2010 (8-10).
Kershaws first fastball just came in at 90mph. That could be a great sign for the Phillies if accurate.
and….. I guess it is as Rollins just homered!
Might have to get on him in the first, if his fastball is that slow, he might not be fully loose.
Kershaw has had a lot of trouble getting through the first inning this season-could have been a big inning.
Kershaws first fastball just came in at 90mph. That could be a great sign for the Phillies if accurate.
Pete I think you’re right.
hopefully the pitch count will continue to rise and we can get him out by 6.
or even better get to him before then.
Carlos Carrasco with a nice 1st MLB outing of 2010 vs. the White Sox.
Pitched into the 8th inning. 7.1 IP, 3 ER, 4 K, 6 H, 1 BB.
Looks like his fastball was around 94-95mph. Impressive. That’s a tad higher than when he was here.
Oswalt not particularly sharp but effective. This guy is a pitcher’s pitcher. Doubt he gets through the 6th with the pitch count. Will need the pen to step up to nail it down.
Are the Cards the consistently most overrated team in baseball over the past 5 years? What a melt-down there. They have been very healthy as well. Why do people continue to think LaRussa is a great manager?
PF-
Overrated in what sense?
Have they ever been considered a WS favorite? That is usually reserved for the Yankees/Sox. They are usually considered a division favorite, and have won 7 division titles since 2000. They also have 2 pennants and a WS title in that span. Isn’t that about as good as any team could hope for in this day in age? Who has been better since 2000? Yanks, Sox and…
That’s not to say that this collapse isn’t pretty shocking.
They were stupid to trade Ludwick because they need offense, not pitching.
Everyone in their line-up right now except Pujols and Holliday are horrible. Their other hitter besides them have a .334 SLG%, and a .638 OPS in August and the team went 11-15. They are Pujols, Holliday and 7 outs, just the Phillies were for a time being this year, only this has been for longer.
just saw you said last 5 years.
yes, they have probably played somewhat below expectations during that time, but still have 2 playoff appearances and a world series title.
As for LaRussa – he’s a P.O.S. of a person, but has taken 13 teams to the playoffs, has 5 pennants and 2 titles, and has always been thought of as an inventive, forward-thinking manager.
Uggh! I got a bad feeling here. Oswalt throws 7 no-hit innings (115 pitches) and gets pulled and we lose 3-2. Say it won’t be so ritchie!!!
funny thing is is I don’t want hit throwing 130-140 pitches to preserve a no hitter and gass him for the next two starts. Hoping Dodgers get a meaningless single in the 6th or 7th.
Nice! Second double of the day for Utley. Maybe he’s starting to come around.
hmm another double: short swing, opposite field fly ball, almost clears Dodgers LF wall
is Utley’s power slowly returning?
I have mixed feelings about LaRussa. As a manager, he has managed some very, very talented teams in the last 20+ years so his overall championship record is not as glowing to me as it appears. He does over manage in my opinion. As a person, he did start a nice charity for cats and dogs in NoCal which is cool.
Tony has actually been managing for 32 years; I gave him a generous pass by not including the White Sox years.
Anyone have any comments that Charlie let Roy throw 115 pitches today ?
After the way he struggled I’ll admit that I was nervous about bringing him back out for the 7th (not necessarily his pitch count).
I was hoping that Broxton would come in to face Chooch.
Domo is gonna have his chops busted over that one.
Nice to get that run back. While we’re at it I’ll take a few more.
Three doubles today, and thanks for the run. Keep it going now.
glad we got to Kuo for the breathing room-that was a scary 8th inning
Yeah, during the bottom of the 8th I got to thinking about what phillyfan said about Oswalt coming out and us losing 3-2 (and wondering why he had to say that).
Amidst the really good feeling of win 5 of 6, Charlie, for the zillionth time this year pushed a lot of buttons correctly today. Rollins, if you subscribe to the theory of better to take a day off too early than too late hasn’t had a day off since this 24 in 23 run started, but ca ching. Early, too. Chase, against the lefty, easy enough to do. Same for RyHo. Same lineup, repetition, victory.
But the one where I really, truly, especially and above think Charlie is pushing it with is Ryan Madson. The guy is getting a lot of work. He looks really, really good since returning from the DL, but Charlie’s gonna have to find somebody else he can be confident in as The Bridge or the late season is gonna really make me wonder. You hate to have him unavailable against the Rox, but I’d love to see him rest until Saturday.
They were stupid to trade Ludwick because they need offense, not pitching.>>>
Wellllll, that’s a little bit of a stretch. They probably had an idea back then they were going to cut back on Garcia. They’re in the same boat as everyone else after AW, and a less than sensational this year Carpenter. And David Freese’s later loss has hurt the offense. I agree they needed offense. But they needed pitching too.
Charlie’s also pushing Roy ; nothing new. He’s also done it with Moyer, Lee, Halladay,etc.
5-1…feels like 10-1 since victories over the Dodgers count more !!haha-these Phillies have really done a number on the Doyers
Last night, I embarked on a cumbersome task for the purpose of determinging some things Ryan Howard might be doing at the plate. Comparing Chase and RyHo is comparing contrasting styles, but toward the ultimate goal. Checking into Utley, I was particularly flabbergasted at what it shows. In a nutshell, I’m not going to argue with science, but I am going to submit that the hand is playing nothing more than a secondary role in any loss of driving the ball with authority. How the bad knee earlier might have effected this would make more sense, and he wasn’t tearing the cover off the ball most of H1. It’s mind boggling how many pitches he is swinging at outside the strike zone, and making more and more contact with them. If those pitches were meant to be ripped, they wouldn’t be called balls. I’ve taken the original post, and incorporated what I found on Utley. I know the Phils are not sabermetric driven (understated), but this seems so obvious, and I wonder what they are doing about it because I assume that to the naked but professional eye, they must be seeing it. Text follows.
According to Fangraphs, in 2005, RyHo swings were at 25.2% outside the strike zone. In 2010, he is swinging at pitches outside the strike zone 34.5%.
That was his rookie year. Chase, in 2004, swung at 18.4 outside the zone, and this year is at 25. So many messages could come out of that.
When he swings at pitches outside the strike zone, Ryan makes contact 47.6% of the time. That completely dwarfs any previous year. That contact wouldn’t figure to be especially powerful since they are balls. Chase, on the other hand, is making contact with 76% of pitches he swings at outside the zone. 76%. Man. That shows an ability to get wood on anything. But most importantly, not only is it significantly higher than Ryan, but it completely blows away any previous year in his career. 10% higher. So you wonder why he’s not driving the ball? He’s swinging at less hittable pitches. And the thumb can’t help, but principle reason? Doubtful.
The pitches Ryan swings at that are inside the strike zone that he makes contact with is a career high 83 per cent. That stat would suggest a power driven year. Utley on the other hand, and this is really impressive is making contact with 91% of pitches he swings at in the zone. The same percentage he is making contact since 2007. And in the years before that, he was in the upper 80′s. Soooo consistent. In otherwords, when he strikes out, its because he’s swinging outside the zone. Chase hits strikes would make for a good, accurate t shirt.
Ryan is seeing 42 per cent of pitches thrown to him in the strike zone. That’s a full 2 per cent lower than any other year, which was as high as 49 per cent in 2005. Chase, not by coincidence, is seeing his lowest percentage of pitches in the zone in his career. 44%. Why throw in the zone when the guy is swinging at more pitches outside the zone, and making contact more often, and if the pitches there were meant to be hit well, they’d be strikes.
Of all pitches that he swings at, Ryan is making contact 69 per cent of the time. That’s a tie for career best at 69%. So he’s making contact as frequently as 2005, but swinging at a near 10% higher outside the strike zone. Chase is consistent within the year with his career more or less. He makes contact with upper 60s% of what he swings at. It’s the same as Ryan, but is making contact with an even higher percentage, and especially compared to his own history.
This assumes that the data is based on actual strikes being strikes, and balls being balls.
dino…has your opinion changed between which team is better? astros or dodgers considering what you saw the last 10 days?
I don’t want to get too into this with detail, but regarding the earlier discussed AL CY, that’s a 1 way race. It’s testimony to the awareness of whole performance as was shown in last year’s NL CY as a modern focus. Actual voters from back in the day may disagree with this, and perhaps rightly, but it used to be check the wins, percentage, ERA, and good night nurse. It’s latantly Felix. It’s possible, if not probable that because of his less than scintillating record that if Soriano finishes nicely, say 50 saves total, and Da Rays win the division, maybe enough people use the lack of a glamourous Felix ledger card (10-10 for a CY?) to push him. He’s not a bad candidate.
Also regarding Felix. If I’m the Yanks, I look at finances and at least think in terms of waiting whatever it is, 2 years? and saving a lot of cash for him. On the surface, looks like they can’t wait, Andy’s iffy for real finally for next year, Vasquez is fair at best over there, etc, but do they shell out 125 for Cliff, or save the money for Felix, or maybe some other young stud like Buchholz in that same time frame. Not the Yanks pattern, I guess, but Felix is greatness.
dino…has your opinion changed between which team is better? astros or dodgers considering what you saw the last 10 days?>>
Not to interrupt your discussion with Dino, but this Houston club is really, really interesting. A mere 5 weeks ago, and maybe less, they clean house, and public concensus coins the war cry wait for 2010. Now, the Stros are roughly 45-37 since July 1, sweep us, sweep the Cards, etc. Nice positives. In a way, you wonder if maybe they sign a couple free agents and swell next year’s expected payroll of I think around 30 mil, and try to contend. ut you have to measure if it’s a non contender feeding off pressure free baseball, and the reality that they got some probably not self generated breaks against us, and ran into the Redbirds at the right time sort of stuff. I would think EW has more questions for the off season than maybe he anticipated. It’s really a nice story.
19-12 through the first 31 of the final 60 games – need to get to 37 wins. We need to go 18-11 rest of way to assure a playoff spot. I expect they will have no trouble with that and see more like 20-9 or better with the very handsome schedule.
Halladay (9-3) (4-2)
Hamels (8-4) (2-4)
Oswalt (8-4 (6-1)
Blanton (6-6) (4-2)
Kendrick (6-6) (3-3)
<<coins the war cry wait for 2010. >>
check that, wait for 2012. damn typos.
There is a closer in this league that has made 38 appearances this year. During 34 of those appearances he has a combined ERA of 1.18. He has not given up an earned run in 13 of his last 14 appearances. In the other appearnace he gave up one run. No closer in the league has been better in their past 14 appearances.
Do you know who that dominant pitcher is? Is there a GM/manager in the league that wouldn’t be comfortable with that pitcher going into the postseason?
(Hint: Said pitcher has a nasty ERA of 10+ in the other 4 appearances, which were in a rough stretch awhile back. Those appearances have mentally destroyed the loyal followers of the team he pitches for!)
On another note – about 3 weeks back we ran through 4-5 pitchers who were nearly neck and neck for NL CY Young. Since then none have them have done anything to distinguish themselves.
On another note – about 3 weeks back we ran through 4-5 pitchers who were nearly neck and neck for NL CY Young. Since then none have them have done anything to distinguish themselves.>>
We did no such thing. There weren’t 4-5 pitchers running neck and neck at that time. There were 2 favorites and a sleeper. And wrong again on the none have distinguished themselves since. It’s not blow away distinguished, but 1 of the 3 has improved his lot.
What a great night to appreciate the game. Aroldis goes 103.9 on an MLB radar gun, and in line for career win numero uno as the Reds try to go up 8. Ubaldo and TL maybe helped by an early start are matching excellence in the big COL-SF game.
Then there’s FL-WAS if you like softball. 16-10 as they break into page 2,3 and beyond on the scorecards.
Halladay
Jimenez
Wainright
Johnson
Lincecum
who is the best player ever that threw left handed and hit right handed was the question just posed by Krukow on Giants TV. Mike said it has to be Rickey Henderson. That is one tough question. How many players have actually been B R T L? Maybe 10? Good thought question as Ubaldo goes T5 with a non no,
Good thing I didn’t waste much time on that combo. Even Costen Schockley was L L.
http://www.wcnet.org/~dlfleitz/left.htm
What a great game between the Rox and Giants. Timmy and Ubaldo both spectacular, and a nice save by Brian Wilson to keep the Gianst 1.5 back in the WCm but push the Rox, push the Rox further, further. Should be a good game tomorrow with COL. Tough to call pitching matchup, but Tulo’s back, and Cargo is on fire of late. And nice to see Lincecum back on track. Hope I don’t come to regret feeling good about that. Giants at LA for the weekend, and we play the Rox nexxxxxxxxxt.
phillyfan: re: post #176 – i assume you mean Lidge?
if so I should state that my case as a Lidge-hater is not based on a stretch of bad performances but from the body of work through last season. Not only that just looking at him pitch is enough to decide it for me, but I guess thats subjective really. am glad he’s doing well now. he has control of the breaking pitch, still waiting on the fastball though, and he’s throwing strikes.
all through last season i was the generic voice of the he’s gonna get it together someday squad. but one is a down year, two is a trend.
2 questions: did we have a good closer last year? is there anything Lidge is doing this year, and recently, that he didnt do last year?
I’m a fan of Lidge, I just think his inconsistency makes every appearance a gamble at best.
re: Lidge -(1) he’s throwing more strikes this year; (2) he’s not letting the count get away from him. When he gets behind 1-0 or even 2-0, he appears to focus on hitting the strike zone so he can then release the “chase” slider. He also doesn’t look scared to death like he did last year.
Personally, I’m hardly even getting butterflies when he takes the mound anymore.
Key, immediate and extended: Do the Colorado Rockies or Atlanta Braves feel the same way?
Lidge’s play (34.1 innings, 1-1, 18 S, 114 ERA+, 1.223 WHIP, 3.67, 5 HR, 16 BB, 41 K) has improved from scattershot ’09, but despite happy quotes, his confidence always seems to be on a wire - one walk or
or roped double from collapsing. Chad Durbin (57.1 innings, 4-1, 121 ERA+, 1.238 WHIP, 3.45, 6 HR, 20 BB, 51 K) has been sturdier this season, albeit in a different role. Ryan Madson has been even better. (I hope he doesn’t kick me for mentioning it.)
Hear, hear: not ‘or or’.
I actually think the first part of phillyfan’s original post (176) is pretty accurate.
By last July, I was certainly one of those who thought (correctly) that anyone who thought Lidge was going to come around last year was delusional. It was obvious that he still had decent stuff (and a fast ball 2-3 miles faster than this year’s model) That he can locate this year (at least the slider that still has incredible bite) is certainly the difference. That his inability to be consistent with his fast ball could cause trouble in the months ahead is unquestionably a concern. All said, I’d have to admit to a tad (but just a tad) of apprehension when he takes the mound.
It has often been said that Lidge looks scared. Personally, I would really like to see him look pissed off. Really pissed off. Probably not possible for a man of his character, a guy who NEVER ducked responsibility for his troubles last year.
Lidge’s play (34.1 innings, 1-1, 18 S, 114 ERA+, 1.223 WHIP, 3.67, 5 HR, 16 BB, 41 K) has improved from scattershot ’09, but despite happy quotes, his confidence always seems to be on a wire - one walk or
or roped double from collapsing. >>
jjg – is the confidence you are referring to the fan’s or Lidge’s? the performance and stats of Lidge this year are very similar to 2008, with a brief 2 week stretch that was all too similar to 2009. It seems increasingly evident that the two week stretch was caused by his balky knee.
And if it’s Lidge’s confidance – what are you seeing inhim recently that suggests that he doesn’t have his confidence?
Remember also that last year he was pitching hurt. That skews things a bit for me.
phillyfan, I say it’s twin emotional tumult. His 5 blown saves (tying him with Marmol-aid, Krazy-Rod, Bluto Broxton and ancient Hoffman) didn’t occur in just 2 weeks time. Brad had a balky knee; his balky head remains, as evidenced by his recent balk.
my quick opinion on Lidge…
Stacy, See post 190 for my reply.
I think his mental state was a result of trying to pitch thru injury and pain and not succeeding. Now he’s dealing with diminished velocity as well and is learning to pitch around it – understandably there’s going to be bumps in the road (hell, Halladay had a bump in the road the other day).
But as far as his facial expression and body language is concerned I don’t see that nervousness anymore. He may miss his spots sometimes but I think he expects to be able close the game now.
Appearing more comfortable, yes. September brings a different environment. Braves’ line-up, especially top half, is a difficult slay.
Of course, with two aces (Roy Halladay & Roy Oswalt) and one ace trainee (Cole Hamels), Brad’s service calls stand a chance of being reduced.
That bodes well for the whole pen. Hopefully Blanton has finally warmed up and can stay in longer too. September is usually their month – it better be this year too.
As predictable as the swallows of Capistrano, JB drops 1 belt hole from Feb to Aug, can tie his own shoes in Sept. Recent headline said as
much: Twinkletoes Throws Through Throes.
He is NOT the pitcher he was in 2008. His fastball just isn’t that good anymore. He’s got to locate to get guys out, he can’t make mistakes and get away with them. He’s locating right now as evidenced by the low walk total.
I definitely agree with this.
Mostly because I keep wondering how long he can remain successful relying on only 1 pitch, I can’t say that I’m 75% confident in him (Pete), or that I hardly even get any butterflies when he takes the mound (Stacy).
What I am wondering is if this current version (the 91mph fastball version) is the Brad Lidge we will have for the rest of his days with us. Is he now a veteran pitcher who needs to lean much more heavily on his experience and execution in order to get guys out because his stuff is fading?
It seems as though he is healthy (I take his better control to be evidence of this too), so is it possible that he could regain at least a couple mph on his fastball next year?
Maybe going to Arizona and doing the shoulder strengthening program that Madson did (I wonder if he is still doing it) would do for him what it did for Madson.
Based on the fact that 2011 is the final guaranteed year of his contract (at $11.5 million) and that 2012 is a club option year at $12.5 mil or a $1.5 mil buyout, I would think he would be highly motivated to try to put up a very good year next year so that the Phils pick up that option.
I’m guessing that Lidge would need to very closely approach, if not duplicate, his 2008 season in order for the Phils to even consider picking that option up, though, and even then it’s a stretch (if for no other reason than the memory that 2009 followed 2008).
SI has an article that could please you guys (and me as well)!
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2010/writers/cliff_corcoran/09/01/nl.pennant.races/index.html
Barring any further elbow trouble, why couldn’t Lidge gain mph? Remember he did have surgery last off season and spent the beginning of this season on the DL – surely the lack of working out is at least partly to blame for the decline in mph. Maybe his solution is a healthy off-season.
I enjoy any article that predicts the Phils to come out on top. Thanks!
What I am wondering is if this current version (the 91mph fastball version) is the Brad Lidge we will have for the rest of his days with us. Is he now a veteran pitcher who needs to lean much more heavily on his experience and execution in order to get guys out because his stuff is fading?
bski – believe it or not I’m fine with that, even if his fastball tops out at 91, and has little movement on it. he could still thrive. the slider is still a killer pitch, all he needs to do is keep the batters honest by mixing it up. that has always been his formula. but he cant even throw the 91 for strikes. as good as he has been its still all over the place. based on the progress he has made recently I dont think its out of the realm of possibility to say he will get it right by playoff time. if so, we wont have Mr. 2008 but a pretty damn good substitute I think.
>>I’m guessing that Lidge would need to very closely approach, if not duplicate, his 2008 season in order for the Phils to even consider picking that option up, though, and even then it’s a stretch (if for no other reason than the memory that 2009 followed 2008).>>
Ski – you do realize that in 2008 he posted one of the great season’s in all of baseball history for a closer. In a word, he was “perfect.” It was ludicrous to think he would ever attain that again. That is what he suffers most from, perhaps even he is too hard on himself trying to live up to what he can’t. It is not possible to duplicate. the best closers in the game are said to have an 85% close rate. anything above that is gravey. That is the expectation we should have IMO. 85%. So if he gets to 45 save chances we should expect 6-8 blown saves every year. And those are the good closers.
jkay -
one HUGE caveat for your statement…
“bski – believe it or not I’m fine with that, even if his fastball tops out at 91, and has little movement on it. he could still thrive. the slider is still a killer pitch, if he can locate it, all he needs to do is keep the batters honest by mixing it up.”
What was happening last year and when he’s been off this year is he hasn’t been able to locate that slider. When that happens, the (smart) hitters make him throw a fastball and sit on it. That’s why when he gets hit, he gets hit HARD.
Location for the “good” slider doesn’t mean it has to be a strike, just close enough to look like it could be one.
jkay,
What Pete said…if he can locate it.
The fact that he has not been able to locate it all season, even during his vastly improved August, is why I still don’t think he is or will be “a pretty damn good substitute for Mr. 2008″ for us this year.
Please believe me when I say that I truly want to completely buy in to what he has been doing and say that he will be rock solid for us the rest of the way, but when I watch him needing to get by with one pitch almost every time out I just can’t push the doubt out of my head. It could be just me though.
phillyfan,
I wasn’t saying that Lidge would need to put up another perfect season, just that he would have to come pretty close to duplicating his over all numbers from 2008.
Remember, he had a few close calls along the way in 2008, especially late in the season, so I don’t think it’s way out of line to figure that he could put up pretty close to the same basic stats and peripherals even if he were to blow a few saves along the way.
Also, if you read the rest of that final sentence then you picked up on my reasoning, which is that in the wake of that perfect 2008 we have suffered through one and one-half seasons of awful performance from Lidge, meaning that even if he were to repeat his 2008 performance in 2011 the Phils would have to wonder if they would then be in line for an awful 2012 from him. (That would worry me enough to scare me off of picking up his option)
Pete: has he not been locating it pretty good lately? i meant that even with that, he still needs to be able to throw another pitch effectively. or else they’ll sit on the slider too. its not invincible esp when he has to raise it cos he’s throwing the 91 on top of Ruiz’s helmet and at the batter’s jersey.
what I feel is the mark of any successful pitcher is the ability to throw strikes when needed. am sure its less demanding on closers bcos their opponents are 85% aggresive already. but its kinda why Marmol, Broxton have troubles while old man Hoffman is still padding his record.
wildness of Lidge is annulled when he can throw both. for now, he seems to have the one down, right?
Rollins 6, Polanco 5, Utley 4, Howard 3, Werth 9, Ibanez 7, Victorino 8, Schneider 2, Blanton 1
2b EY cf fowler lf cargo ss Tulo 1b helton 3b mora rf smith c iannetta p chacin
Cargo’s at .500 plus over his last 9, but top 2 had 1 hits vs Gmen
thanks Real Rob, SI article a good break from the weird taste Lidge talk leaves in my mouth.
spot game against Rox, weekend with the Brew Crew in CBP, after that its division mania.
it’ll be a test to see just how much we own these guys.
the Mets are so useless, they’d better bring that weak game when they play us. Johan should get it done tonight, if we can pick up a game it’d be a real boost.
It would be three in a row for Capps and Lidge today. Romero (3 straight games) and Madson (2 straight) have also been used a lot by PHI
Street was idle last night. 3 in a row before that?
Hudson/Doc
2.24 2.27
15-5 16-10
1.09 1.04 (WHIP)
184 214 (IP)
58 26 (BB)
109 190 (K)
11 17 (HR)
1 6 (unearned runs charged)
7 8 (H/9)
1.22 1.2 (ERA+)
uno 8 (CG)
TH got POM, and should have a piece of cake assignment tonight. Phoenominal comeback year. 5-6 starts left.
This Rockie group heads out to San Diego tonight. Nice team to face on a 7 game slide. Kind of a shame, too. Look like the kinda club that would make for an appealing first round match fir the wildcard. I’ve seen it go both ways. The bend don’t break, the bend, crack, wheeeee. Fresh off the heels of disbelief on the extent of the Reds run, I have to stay conservative. That bullpen bends, but it doesn’t break. But home field being lost would be a shame. A lot can happen fast.
<<The National League Cy Young award is Roy Halladay‘s to lose, but teammate Cole Hamels could earn some third-place votes with his remarkable 2010 campaign. Halladay leads the NL with a 2.90 SIERA but Hamels isn’t far behind at 3.21, good for fifth-best in the league.>>
Bill Baer. Same guy who said before Blanton’s last start that he was pitching excellent. Amazing what a painter can do with a brush. Not really fair to pull that from context, but shick lines draw shock reactions.
Shame. No such thing as a first inning tonight. Not with this tired pen. I winder how many IP Charlie will try to coax out of Joe.
Mets are rockin. 2-zip, still T1.
I mean Joe wasn’t fooling anyone anyway. If they had a swing and a miss at all, it was early in the lineup. Odds were unfavorable tonight anyway, so might as well hang in and see what the offense can do with this Chacin guy
What a wonderful night to eat up the pen. Cmon Joe
Offense is long overdue to carry the team for a night. Seems like forever that they overcame an early 3 run deficit to win one.
Rockies announcers make me want to turn audio off.
uh…meant 4-run deficit I guess…
when does the roster expand?
if Hyde Blanton is back, then we need insurance for both he and Kendrick.
yesterday jkay. Only call up so far is Hoover, Monday, Robertson Worley or Drew Carpenter if not 2 or 3 of them will be recalled to pitch 1 of the Fish douleheader.
Jkay, if you catch the maes of the Rox TV guys, let me know please.
I mean he is fooling nobody, and here we go again.
Rockies are a different team at home…i.e OPS .869 H; .654 A.
Joe’s helping that stat tonight
The irony is obvious. Joe had a good first inning, and has not been good since. I mean he got out of that ining okay, but a nice play, and consistent contact were the features.
More irony, about which I could be wrong, but that night RH got tossed, he must have tried to check his swing 5 times that game. I don’t think he’s checked it since, even when he’s greatly fooled, a la that last pitch to him.
I don’t wanna put any pressure on anyone, but we better score here
That’s some nice hitting
Young Tyson Gillies pleading not guilty.
And Joe Blanton pleads not guilty to sucking. Good work, Joe. We need 4 ore like it.
be like a good girl Blanton; dont give it up.
I’m mezmerrized during this important at bat by the “fact” that this might be the first game in 50 years that both straters wore their socks outside ther pants. Unless somebody did that against El Duque.
How can you get breaks like this and not take advantage. What winning team does that. Especially with the 2-3-4.
Well, not muh to say here. Good contact in his 1st 2 Abs. Lets go Chase
what an outstanding time to work this count.
now that was a ball if he didn’t swing
that’s a break, sending the runner, Joe on that. I was sure they’d get him. Good work Sam
Hmmmm, Werth if he walks him
We’re in the game
excellent job by Blanton – tapping breaking pitches foul, sliding into 2nd, running the bases.
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yeah this guy is just ridiculous.
Joe sucks-what a waste of $$$
That’s a 10-game hitting streak for CarGo. He has had an XBH in 10 straight games, first since Damon in May of last season
Unfortunately, premature that this might be, I doubt they changed the scedule on the first post season round. 5 straight days, most likely, so we would need a 4th starter. This just in, we don’t have one.
cant get Herndon in there soon enough
Come next spring, some fool will go 20 innings and not give up an earned run. And the peeps will go orgasmic. This year, Kendrink had a H of Fame spring, as did Herndon, and Moyer also in a couple B games, and 1 A game. More often than not, a false alarm.
KB: re: #246 – the plan >> we play so that we wont need one.
Kendrick a H of F spring, and Herndon a H of F 5th inning. Let’s get some runs.
we play so that we wont need one.>>
yeah, I forgot, you only need to win 3. Thankfully!
I know Vic drilled one, and Raul got a big hit earlier, but I just don’t like this part of the lineup based on the way those 2 and Schneider are. And I know Brian creamed one the other night, but I just don’t feel optimistic about it. We’ll see what happens.
We can’t possibly screw this up. The David Wright homer defies all statistical odds. I don’t recall the number, but he’s been terrible at Turner this year.
And if we do get far enough, we have to pinch hit which goes deeper in the pen. Bastardo I woud think is next.
nice comeback. Dbacks recall Mike Hampton, works from the pen starting Friday. Nice story.
http://zozone.mlblogs.com/archives/2010/09/gillies_pleads_not_guilty.html
Gillies story
chooch vs. Belisle?
Hug time. Deeeeeep
I duuno, jkay, that might have been better, we’ll see what Mike does.
that hurts. thts 2 painful HBPs. And if Bastardo is wild, this could get interesting. I men they aren’t throwing at Mike, but it still might get interesting.
gotta like Jimmy in a clutch spot
hmm controversial call.
thanks.
probably got points for the severity of the hit.
That was Jimmy’s type of spot, tough at bat.
Look for the doctor to get a hug from Sweeney. That suckers gonna swell.
big lollipop too, he took one for the team.
bad time for a DP.
frag! miscues.
that is one fine pitch
Unfortunately, premature that this might be, I doubt they changed the scedule on the first post season round. 5 straight days, most likely, so we would need a 4th starter. This just in, we don’t have one.>>
The league that wins the all star game has their game 5′s on the Wednesday the 13th. The team with the best record gets to choose to start the series on Oct 6 or 7. Both game 2′s are on the 8th, then a traveling days on the 9th and 12th (I think).
It’s really amazing that we’re still in this game. We could have been more than a grand slam behind 2-3 times. All through a sloppy outing.
That is the worst rightfielding I have ever seen.
get up
helluva ballgame
Ross Gload back tomorrow? He went 0-3 at Clearwater yesterday as the DH and is playing 1st base tonight.
the amazing Phillies.
come on lets go.
oooooeeeeee. I really thought our odds were slim tonight. I mean we still might lose, but this is cool stuff. You just never know in The Game. Both teams are sloppy, fatigue? Hate to see either one off more travel tonight.
I want to win, but using Madson at all, or Brad is gonna really concern me for the weekend. But we still have to get 1, and hold em.
>>> That is the worst rightfielding I have ever seen.
obviously you dont remember Justin Upton.
Ross Gload back tomorrow? He went 0-3 at Clearwater yesterday as the DH and is playing 1st base tonight.>>
I’d say no. No need to rush him back. Not like Chase and RH. But if Mike’s out, I guess maybe.
obviously you dont remember Justin Upton.>>
Oh, I could think of a few. But was that lazy (the Smith play). That was just stupid. You’re quite right about Upton.
GONE
>>> I want to win, but using Madson at all, or Brad is gonna really concern me for the weekend. But we still have to get 1, and hold em.
i get your concern but I believe we’re at that stage of the season where any game you can win is important.
Jayson said this morning that Chase is extremely well positioned for a huge Sept and October.
Maybe he is also. I mean he’s really been lookin good the last week
really psyched by this comeback. Look good on the scoreboard at Turner.
jkay, if we use Ryan, watch his speed. watch how few fastballs he throws. He looked fried yesterday let alone add a day. There’s digging deep, and still the drag of a long season.
If he pitches, his performance will settle it.
Troy Remck, outstanding Denver post beatwriter offers these comments
This game has dramatic ending or bench-clearing brawl in future. Just a prediction 2 minutes ago via TweetDeck
Werth put a little mustard with the hot dog, flipping his bat nearly to the Rockies’ dugout.
some night’s you can do so littlwe wrong. Guess we see how Charlie handles the save.
sweet.
KB: if they keep scoring, maybe we see Romero, Contreras 8th. Rox has tons of good lefties.
All I’ll say is I’d feel better with more. Whoever pitches. This club can scorch you at home, and they need it.
Philly, you disagree with my Glaod guess?
Dare I wonder out loud if Jimmy should bat right more often?
Even if his hand is busted, Sweeney is probably hugging everyone this inning. Gotta love that guy.
on ball 3 no less. tough, tough
I really like this matchup in this situation if we can get to a hiters cout.
Chase Utley is Back! Grand Slam!
hello Chad Durbin!!!!
I forgot about Chad. haven’t tracked his appearances as closely, but he’s a good choice. I mean if Charlie says its a good choice it is, no matter what I think, but I’m glad we get to give Ryan a break.
good call on JC, I would guess it’s Chad’s unless matchups suggest it.
Best win since Broxton night, jkay?
oh, wow, its only the 7th? geez, I thought it was the 8th.
The way the ball’s flying out of this park 2 nite, u never know what can happen.
Anyone know why the Phils didn’t bring up the pitchers quicker ?
>> Best win since Broxton night, jkay?
if we can pull it out, that is. scrappy Rox are not done.
I only know why they didn’t bring Mathieson, working with Sutter on the split.
Gotta stay poised here and get an out.
This crowd is laughing at the deficit after the 10-1 comeback. And 1000 others.
hmm this is gonna be a crazy finish.
suffice to say either Lidge or Madson is gonna pitching a full inning tonight.
Lidge in the 9th, from a rest standpoint isn’t as risky as the tired Madson. To me, anyway. But I’d have liked to see Brad get out of that game yesterday a little quicker. But you take what you get from him. Rarely his style. duh.
I miss Clay Condrey at times like this.
Romero has pitched in 3 straight games also.
If its 12-10 to B9, Charlie’s definitely going Lidge. But he might try to stay away from him tomorrow as a result. But it’s a ittle source of concern the way Brad gives up fly balls the way things are flying there. It’d be another measuring stick to see how “back” he is. Not many other options.
JC reverting to his alter ego B. B. Romero?
he doesn’t pitch muh when he does, but it was his 4th straight game, for what it’s worth. We figure to be pretty flat tomorrow. The flight is scheduled to get in at 4 am. If the game ends in timely fashion.
That 3-1 pitch to Chase was a fastball. 91 mph.
oh boy. bad count to a dangerous hitter
we’re running out of pitchers if we go free basbeall.
so I guess we send up a PH, first choice woule be Chooch. The object of this inning is to get to RyHo. If we do that, we probably have scored already.
Huston Street gets the 9th. DB will bat I would guess
When the Phils board the plane tonight, how big a hug does Sweeney give the pilot?
That’s one area DB will blossom. Handling 3-2 pitches as he matures He just missed that one, but it appeared hittable.
on an unrelated note: Nas’s Hate me Now is an awesome intro song for a closer.
well, hope that failed 9th doesn’t haunt us. Had a good lineup to add insurance, but it didn’t happen.
Rox have a good part of the lineup coming up. Gotta keep them from getting much momo.
Fowler, Cargo, Tulo, Helton – true test for Lidge’s current level.
You know what might have helped Lidge get off the schneid. Wild guess, but getting Oswalt. Old bud. Might have helped.
Just have to lok past that. can’t afford a walk here.
The Lidge circus show …not sure if I can watch this
straight sliders for sure now, to Tulo.
another night where the command is an adventure. Tough to depend on him in this circumstance.
that is some excellent pitching, greatly helped by poor hitting
you just have to wonder why the organization did nothing to bolster the relievers…2 yrs in a row and only Baez
thats a good pitch, not giving him anything to hit, just don’t hang one
every day is an adventure.
ltr.
outstanding job. Really good work by Brad. That puts us at about 12-51, or almost exactly it when opponent scores first. Strong character win tonight. 2 back, and hopefully, good energy level to compete tomorrow night. We never let the game get out of control, kept fighting back. Credit with Bastardo with nice work leading the relief guys. Nicest thing I can say about Chase is nothing. Because that’s his game. Shut up and play. Makes an error, comes back large. Another good job by JDub. If it is the end, go out in style.
Very softball. Who’s phonin’ in the score?
Thwack, thwack, thwack, thwack, thwack … .
Seth Smith in right – brainless; Roger Freed would’ve played that ball better.
Chase Utley at plate – the ex-Bruin ruins!
A.M. comments regarding Durbin – kindly delete.
Holy crap, what a win! Nice that we finally got a little help from the Mets, too.
I couldn’t watch the game so I followed it on the Game Zone feature. I got wiped out just following the play-by-play so it makes me wonder what our guys are going to have in the tank tomorrow. They’ll be getting into Philly late and you know what they say about the first game of a home stand feeling more like the continuation of the road trip because of the travel (not to jinx them or anything). A CG by Hamels would be a big help.
get to try it again tomorrow night. last Sunday, Fish led Braves 6-1, or 5-1, with Josh on the hill, and couldn’t hold them. That was that Diaz/McCann delayed call I think. Josh again tomorrow. I understand the hell with the scoreboard, but its a better shot at them osing than most pitchers wuld give us. Johan would maybe be an exception. Guy has allowed 1 or 0 in 16 starts this year. Go Fish til Monday.
Big help and bigger surprise. 7 out of 143 for career. He’s “hittin” .049.
Sweeney HBP call was critical (w/Rockies leading 6-3). Could’ve gone either way.
Did anyone watching think Joe Beimel was equipped with an out pitch?
Maybe it’s easier to tell from TV vantage point as opposed to dugout. With his putrid history against Phils, his insertion into game was
CRAAY-zee.
He almost blew 2 games against the Dodgers last week; his ERA is low though
dino: Anyone know why the Phils didn’t bring up the pitchers quicker ?
there is a minor league season going on. they are not going to just deplete their roster
wow that was a fail. BARNER typed post post # 333
Vance Worley is scheduled to pitch today. Does that mean he is out of the running for the double header? Or will they scratch him?
In his first outing as a replacement for lefty Manny Parra in the Brewers’ rotation, Capuano was tagged for six runs in three innings by lowly Pittsburgh.
Wheels pointed out last night that Chooch was reminding Lidge to keep his shoulder in on release. Might have been a sign of fatigue from 3 straight days of work. Pitching him again tonight seems inargualy risky. I’d love to see Madson get a 2nd night off, but with Doc versus Bush tomorrow, maybe you take your chances. Course Doc has been less than great his last 2 starts, but that’s still a mismatch. I don’t think it’s reasonable to expect Cole to go more than 7 tonight the way the Brewers make you work, let alone hit. Where the post 9/1 bullpen depth is seems a reasonable question.
The Brewers have not fared well against teams with winning records. They are 23-43 (.348) against teams over .500 and 39-28 (.582) against teams with losing records. Speaks to their ineffective pitching, something they are said to be concentrating on rebuilding in the winter through free agency. But they can hit. The thought of Kendrick going against them on Sunday requires different word usage than invigorating.
It seems its been a while since HFA in the NL was capitalized on by advancing to the Series. Certainly not the last 2 years, not the previous 2, and probably back to at least 2004, if not longer. This year has last year’s pattern as a multi team battle. Last year had the Cards, Dodgers and Phils trading places frequently, this year, the Pads recent woes have put the Reds and Braves a mere half game apart, and the Pads are about 1.5 back. So the Phils, at 3 back, can realistically be a player in that, or the other way, The Wild Card. Leader Cincy would have to go 19-12 to finish with 95 wins, so the Phils would have their work cut out for them to have HFA.
Telling stat…
I don’t know how Paul Hagen defines a low scoring game, but I’m sure its a reasonable definition, and he offers this as support to why the road to the World Series may be through The Bank.
Even in going to the World Series the past 2 years, this team has never been especially good in low-scoring games. In 2008 and 2009, they won a total of 22 games when scoring three runs or less. This season: 18 already.
Chad Durbin is the early morning headliner over at mlbtraderumors on his pending free agency…
Durbin Hopes To Return To Phillies
By Ben Nicholson-Smith [September 3 at 8:33am CST]
Chad Durbin told Matt Gelb of the Philadelphia Inquirer that he “definitely” wants to re-sign in Philadelphia when he hits free agency this offseason. The Phillies seem to want the right-hander back, too. Manager Charlie Manuel says Durbin has “done a tremendous job” and GM Ruben Amaro Jr. says the 32-year-old has “done everything” expected of him. But the Phillies have already committed over $140MM to next year’s payroll, so Durbin realizes he may not be back.
“It’ll be something that’s tough,” Durbin said. “If somebody is offering two or three years, it’ll be hard to say no to that to take a one-year deal where you really want to be.”
Amaro says the Phillies have not yet discussed the possibility of signing Durbin, who now earns $2.125MM, to a multi-year deal. Durbin has averaged 60 appearances per season from 2008-10 in Manuel’s bullpen. His 3.63 ERA, 7.4 K/9 and 4.3 BB/9 over that three-year span are respectable, but not irreplaceable.
As MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes showed last month, the Phillies have handed out more years than necessary before, so perhaps Durbin will get to stay in Philadelphia on a multi-year deal as well. If not, other teams will show interest on the open market. Durbin now ranks as a Type B free agent, so he won’t cost other clubs a draft pick, but the Phillies will get one if they lose Durbin after offering arbitration.
20-12 through the first 32 of the final 60 games – need to get to 37 wins. We need to go 17-11 rest of way to assure a playoff spot. I expect they will have no trouble with that and see more like 19-9 or better with the very handsome schedule.
Halladay (9-3) (4-2)
Hamels (8-4) (2-4)
Oswalt (8-4 (6-1)
Blanton (6-6) (5-2)
Kendrick (6-6) (3-3)
Incredibly 5-2 in Blanton starts. As long as the team keeps winning when he pitches Charlie wouldn’t make a change.
18, by necessity. Credit to risings of player pride (Chooch being most
prominent), imported “Maypole” Roy H, wily Uncle Chuck’s homemade remedies, Bank “acoustics” and former Champs’ slight umpiring handicap (call it the “Yankees’ Inch”; yes, a subjective and debatable viewpoint). But, wait, do I hear Rumplestiltskin stirring? 25 runs in last 3.
I guess Durbin’s resigning will hinge mostly on what else is out there – last year there were slim pickings. He’s been the most reliable out there in recent years so it wouldn’t be a bad signing. Certainly better than the risk they took on Baez.
Contreras only pitched last night – they could put him in the 9th if need be. Hopefully Hamels can get thru 7 or 8 and then the pen won’t be as much as an issue. Either way, this should be a good weekend for the Phils. Even on Sunday – Kendrick should only have to be “good enough” against Wolf.
jjg – did you study under Bill Conlin? Please don’t start a “When I am King of the World” riff.
Local wolf tickets available for Sunday. Wolf Pack will counter, in minority. Wolfie’s aging well, occasionally. Shoulda stayed close to his early stomping grounds (Woodland Hills) though. Had nice ’09 in LA. Some things money can’t quickly buy, like comfort zones and winning traditions. Baseball-reference.com compares him to Bruce Hurst. Bears a resemblance, but a tad flattering. A 200-inning C+ grunt. Bonus: can stand-in as a pinch-hitter.
If there is anything the phillies should do this off season, is not to signing any relievers out in FA, other than Durbin, but only to a one year extension - nothing more than that. The phils have a ton of relievers down in the minor who are more than capable of filling in for the guys we have now. plus, it would be a lot cheaper to have guys come up internally. I really wanna see guys like Matheison, Schwimer, De Fratus, Stutes and others in our pen next year. I dont wanna see the Beaz’s of MLB in our pen.
Phillyfan, Long ago, in the dead of winter, I was born in a log cabin, smoke plumes rising from the chimney, hinting at the presence of logs and the potential of paper and the magic of ink … .
Bill Conlin is a jim-dandy of a baseball writer. I’ve enjoyed his work
since he started at the Evening Bulletin in the mid-60s. He’s an original, a one-and-only. Read him while you can. None of the young journalists Syracuse U. generates can hold a candle to him (wish Philly media outlets would plug that pipeline). And the potshots from the vox populi serve to underscore his earned stature.
Ruben: i agree with you wholly. but I think where the Phils always go to FAs is that they want veterans. veteran relievers are craftier and more reliable (or should I say less volatile) than their younger counterparts. In a game where you have to be sharp right off the bat, it pays to have greater consistency that most vets bring.
younger relievers like Bastardo, Mathieson will have a learning curve which should have already started climbing if they had been on the club since April. they could do no worse than Baez at least.
the Phillies organization seriously needs to intervene.
this is a crisis!!
for the sake of all things creativity.
and fun.
I’d bet He would want it too.
Aw, darn. 3 grand’s worth of derivitive fun down the drain.
phillyfan, Did you deliver Ryan Howard’s newspaper to him this morning? Please don’t throw it on the porch roof anymore. He disappeared for a month.
And no tsunami to blame.
phillyfan, Did you deliver Ryan Howard’s newspaper to him this morning? Please don’t throw it on the porch roof anymore. He disappeared for a month.>>
Uhhh..Hello in there…I think he was rehabbing a badly sprained ankle for 20 days of the month. Riddle me this Howard-hater, how come when Utley hits a homer nobody mentions how the pitcher just threw a softball up there?
And I am a big Conlin fan…
there is a minor league season going on. they are not going to just deplete their roster
very astute observation especially in view of the records that Lehigh V and Reading have going for them this year. That pitcher or 2 would really mess those teams up AND deplete their rosters.