The Phillies got a taste of what a 1st round playoff match-up with the Giants would be like, and it didn’t taste good. Despite the fact that we threw our 3 best pitchers out there, and the Giants didn’t start Matt Cain, the Phillies still lost the series 3-1. Bottom line is the Phillies didn’t show the solid defense and good at bats that were leading their July charge.
2009: 59-44
2008: 54-49
2007: 54-49
Player of the Series: Cliff Lee (9 IP, 1 ER, W)
Goat of the Series: Cole Hamels (5 IP, 10 H, 7 R, L)
The Good News:
- When teams go through these tough stretches, it always seems like the sky is falling. But it happens to every team, several times, every year. It only seems like it just happens to the Phillies.
- Cliff Lee was better than advertised, hurling a complete game, hurling a complete game 4-hitter. He showed a very impressive array of pitches, and it’s easy to see how he won the AL Cy Young award last season.
- For the last 2 months, Joe Blanton has been one of the best pitchers in the National League. Since his start on May 26th, he has made 12 starts, averaging nearly 7 innings per start with a 2.33 ERA and 1.09 WHIP. The offense hasn’t taken advantage though, as the team has gone just 6-6 in those starts.
- To say Chan Ho Park has “settled” into his job as middle relief is a serious understatement. In his last 21 appearances, Park a 1.52 ERA and 0.91 WHIP with 33 K in 29.2 IP.
- Some significant minor league call-ups in the last couple days: Joe Savery to AAA-Lehigh Valley (6 IP, 0 ER, 4 H, 5 BB, 0 K in first start), Dominic Brown to AA-Reading (2 for 7 with 2 walks in first 2 games) and Matthew Way to Lakewood (has not pitched yet).
The Bad News
- I said before the Lee move that it didn’t matter if we got Lee or Halladay if Cole Hamels didn’t start pitching better. If Hamels can’t come around, Lee will just be replacing Hamels production, not complimenting it. In Hamels defense, most everyone predicted he would get injured this year because of the number of inning he pitched last year and his arm might be suffering from some fatigue. But you don’t get extra runs in the playoffs if you pitch through fatigue, and if we want to make another run at the pennant, he’s got to be himself come October.
- The other reason why a repeat championship isn’t exactly at the top of my mind? The closer position. Lidge has been on the DL, he’s been put in in non-save situations, and he still can’t seem to get it right. To me, it appears like a mechanical issue and he can’t get his pitches where he wants them. To Astros fans, it looks like 2006-07. Lidge is currently on pace for 31 saves. The top-3 highest ERAs for a pitcher with 30+ saves in a season are 1) Shawn Chacon, 7.11, 2) Mike Henneman, 5.79, 3) Brad Lidge, 5.28. Lidge could be a lock to make that list a 2nd time, as he currently has the same ERA as Chacon, 7.11.
- Ryan Howard is going through one of those phases where it looks like he is seeing a breaking pitch for the first time in his life. He has 24 strikeouts in his last 14 games. He seems to be swinging for the fences every time up there and abandoning the better approach he took earlier in the year. I wouldn’t worry though, as he always seems to hit these phases during a season, and then come back with a 15 HR, 40 RBI month of some kind.
- As a team, over the last 6 games (2-4), we are hitting .210 with a .593 OPS. Dodgers pitcher Chad Billingsley is hitting .200 with a .581 OPS for the season. So, a team made up entirely of Chad Billingsleys would only be slightly worse than us the last 6 games.
Series Preview: Phillies vs. Colorado Rockies
When the Phillies started the Giants series, the Giants were the team they would face if “the playoffs started today”. However, the hot Rockies are now that team, and it just so happens they are rolling into town. The Rockies have been working on all cylinders recently with their hitting, pitching and defense all performing well at the same time. Troy Tulowitzki was a menace in July, with 19 RBI and a 1.014 OPS.
Pitching Match-Ups
Tuesday: Moyer vs. RHP Jason Hammel (5-6, 4.66 ERA)
Wednesday: Happ vs. LHP Jorge De La Rosa (9-7, 4.68 ERA)
Thursday: Lee vs. RHP Aaron Cook (10-3, 3.88 ERA)
Three Questions for the Series
- Will the comforts of home snap the Phillies out of their offensive funk?
- How is Shane Victorino’s knee?
- How will Cliff Lee handle the jazzed up crowd on Thursday afternoon?
Prediction
I know the Phillies aren’t playing well right now, but this is a series they should win. I think that Lee will feed off the crowd and pitch us to victory on Thursday, while the offense will wake up for one of the first 2 games. I think this is an important series for 2 reasons. First off, obviously the Rockies are a team that we might see in the playoffs, and are the team that swept us out in 2007. Any sort of victory against them is good for the psyche. Second, I want no part of the Marlins being within 3 games of us come Friday when we start our weekend series with them. The Fish play the Nats this week and could very well sweep, and us losing 2 of 3 would put them 3 back with 3 to play against us. Take 2 of 3 and make it a moot point.
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{ 25 comments… read them below or add one }
wow – Washington bails us out with a 6-run 8th! didn’t see that coming.
got this e-mail from a Rockies fan who is a friend of mine, thought I’d share…
1) I think you might be surprised at the amount of strikeouts you can rack up this week. The Mets dominated us over the weekend by amassing a large amount of strikeouts and key outs with men on base. Lee should be fantastic – but if moyer keeps striking people out tonight (2 guys in 4 outs) and Happ can be himself – you guys have a good chance to repeat what the mets did. (Although that Atkins HR while I write this is nice…). I think the best game of the series is game 2 with 2 young pitchers having better than expected years facing tough line-ups. I am excited to see if JDLR can throw a legitimate start against a real team in a hitters park. My question – how confident are you in Happ for a late in the rotation guy going deep into Sept. – Is this game kind of a litmus test for him like it is for JDLR?
2) You’ll see a lot of line-ups from us: We have too much young talent in the outfield fighting for playing time right now esp. in center where both Carlos and Dexter have been fighting to get out of post-all star slumps. A key piece though has been Seth Smith – having a great year and getting a bulk of the starts in Cinci – he should be playing in games 2 and 3. Who on the Phils do you feel is not getting enough playing time this year?
3) A few of the phils were talking abut their offensive problems in SF and said some of those balls were out at home – but hteir record is so much better on the road? Is this a team that is going to improve its home performace down the stretch while the road record evens out? Or Is the pitching too weak to make the home field a real advatage down the stretch?
4) It probably depends on this week – but who would you rather see in the NLDS right now – us or the Giants? Is their pitching too good in a 5-game series? Was Sanchez the piece that will give them the wild card? When are they going to turn into the real fucking Giants? I like our chances but am a bit worried about the stamina of our starting staff, the consistency of our bats, and anytime our bullpen (outside of Street) has to shut down a team for more then 4-5 outs.
Moyer. 5.55 ERA. 137 h in 118 innings. 22 HRs, 7 HBPs, 37 BBs. Pasture time.
“Pedro! Pedro! Pedro!”
I only caught parts of the game tonight. I agree with those who say Howard is back to his old ways with the strikeouts and to pull everything. I saw in the box score that Utley was hitless but I didn’t catch any of his at-bats and I realized he hasn’t done much lately. Can anyone tell me what looks wrong with Chase at the plate these last few games?
jjg -
1. If we are still up by about 5 games after the Marlins series I think we should give Cole a vacation on the 15 day DL for some rest.
2. I agree about Lidge. Simply put, if he can’t close out games we will lose in the playoffs. Most playoff games are close.
3. Utley has looked a bit lost at the plate recently. He’s swinging at pitches out of the zone and looking at fastballs over the plate. I’m not worried but he is definitely in his first funk of the year.
4. It was painful watching the Phils at bats against San Fran. They seemed tired, uninterested, and impatient. Especially with RISP. It was almost like they thought they would win the games without putting in max effort and San Fran took advantage.
Really. Let’s see, when Pedro gets his chance to start for us who should get bumped from the rotation? Hmmm………
Been saying for a while that it’s got to be Moyer. It shouldn’t be that difficult of a decision either.
Problem is, reading Manuel’s quotes about Moyer being a 10-game winner this season and winning 250+ in his career, knowing that he is best used as a starter, and realizing that he is also signed for next year, it’s hard to figure that he’ll be the one heading to the pen.
Now, if the Phils intend on buying him out in the off season, which would be a great idea, that changes the dynamic for the rest of this season, knowing full well that his time with us is limited anyway.
At the risk of preaching to the choir, not to mention beating this issue to death, Happ proved again tonight, with a complete game shutout on 4 hits, 2 walks, and 10 strikeouts, that he unquestionably deserves to be left in the rotation. The Phils just have to see that and make the right decision baseball-wise.
hear ye! all J. Happ detractors and critics; another feather in his cap. free swinging rockies are decent prey but no rollovers. Like that he was able to locate. Good day for him. for a rookie, not bad. hope he stays in the rotation. force the front office to demote someone else or keep Pedro tethered. interesting to see if he stays with us and how good he can get. he’s not doing anything wrong now, thats for sure.
there is absolutely NO way, AT ALL, that you can justify leaving Happ out of the rotation for Moyer.
bski: dunno why but i keep seeing Jamie Moyer trade early next year. either that or Happ somehow pulls a Kendrick and withers away.
Moyer should just pitch against the Marlins. And how about Happ tonight? Pedro did well in his last rehab stint. Lee makes his home debut tomorrow. Things should be interesting. Let’s hope the Phils win this series and pray it’s the Rockies in the 1st round!
I kinda like Drew’s suggestion that maybe we solve this mess by giving Cole a 2 week break to work on his mechanics and rest up while the other guys “tryout” for who will remain in thevrotation when he comes back.
I honestly can’t see anybody catching us in the East and it will give Cole time to get to where we need him to be for the stretch run.
Man, I would love the Nats to sweep Florida today if that game doesn’t get rained out (currently light rain down here this morning in DC for a day game)
I gott a agree with you Pete. I know Moyer is a starter by nature, and may not be an option out of the bullpen. But, hasn’t Happ earned his right to stay in the rotation? He’s 8-2 with 2 CG Shutouts and 2.74 era. Moyer has a 5.55 era, that’s more than double Happ’s, plus only two more wins that J.A. (and he’s been starting all year). At this point Pedro should have to come in here and earn Moyer’s spot. I love Moyer as much as anybody but this has got to be about winning and we win when Happ’s on the mound.
I have to think we would be the first team in MLB history to demote a starter with the 6th best ERA in the league to the bullpen during a pennant race.
jkay……Based on what he’s done so far, his stuff, and his makeup, I don’t see Happ backsliding into Kendrick territory. Even if the league catches up to him some, he’ll be a back end of the rotation guy which, with Lee, Hamels, and Blanton, works out just fine.
I hope you’re right about Moyer. It would suit me just fine if Drabek were ready next year, we could slide him into the 5th spot, and get something in return for Moyer.
Rob……Lucky for us, Moyer’s next start is Sunday against the Marlins. They always seem to fix whatever ails him (and he better pitch well because I’ll be at the game).
Stu……Yeah, a sweep would be fantastic, but we can’t complain at all about the Nats winning 2 out of 3, can we. They did us a favor and if we take care of our business today we’re guaranteed to have picked up at least one game on the Marlins.
Moyer is not tradeable unless we eat his whole contract.
Chris McC…….”At this point Pedro should have to come in here and earn Moyer’s spot.“………That’s it exactly!
Pedro is a $1 million contingency plan. If you think he can help you (i.e. give you more than you are getting from your 5th best starter), fine, then give him a shot. If not, then there is no reason to force him into the rotation (or the bullpen).
If the Phils value Moyer’s experience, his 256 wins, etc…..more than what Pedro might be able to give them, that’s fine but then the whole discussion ends right there.
More on why it’s not likely that Happ will follow Kendrick’s pattern … Kendrick in 2007 threw 13 quality starts out of 20, but 5 of those QS’s were the 3-runs-in-6-innings (i.e., “cheap”) variety. Kendrick’s batting average against was .280 and his OPS against was .774, both mediocre (though much better than his 2008 numbers). Happ has thrown 11 quality starts out of 14, including his last 9 in a row, and none were the cheap variety (he’s only given up 3 runs in one of those quality starts, when he went 7 innings). Happ’s batting average against is .222, his OPS against is .646. In other words, the rest of the league is hitting like 2008’s So Taguchi against him. Like bski said, even if Happ falls back (and I’m optimistic he won’t — 9 quality starts in a row is no fluke), he’s probably not going to fall to the levels of 2008 Kendrick.
they are giving Pedro the respect and benefit of the doubt bcos of who he is. I say make him earn it. Pitch lights out down there before you even get a chance. one louy start up here and i say demote him back.
No more worries Gents. Todd Zolecki is reporting (12:04PM) that Happ will remain in the rotation. This comes straight from Amaro’s mouth. Here are a few quotes:
“Happ’s not going anywhere. He’s not going out of the rotation,” Amaro said. “He deserves to stay in the rotation. He has pitched very well. He’s one of our most effective starters.”
“We still haven’t made a decision, but it’s not out of the realm of possibility that six guys could pitch in our rotation,” Amaro said. “We haven’t discussed it yet. There are a lot of possibilities. You never what’s going to happen the next week to 10 days. A man could go down right now. There are a lot of things that could happen the next week or so that would change our thinking.”
“It depends how you utilize it,” Amaro said. “You can be creative and set up the rotation so certain guys go every five days and other guys get pushed back. The fact of the matter is, we’re not there yet. But we are in a situation where we have six starters, and we’ll see how creative we can be.”
bski-
another minor league story to keep an eye on…
The soon-to-be-late, surely-not-great Jamie Moyer: 23 seasons averaging 26 starts, 11 wins & a 4.23 ERA. (Far, far from HOF numbers.) What’s with Ruben’s wringing of hands over Moyer’s fate? Has been here 2 seasons and has been paid very well for his rag-arm services. Has always been a shrewd mongrel of a pitcher; now he’s a toothless one (except when hooking the impatient Marlins). And just when did Moyer earn special dispensations from the ballclub? Ruben should say: Listen, ol’ man, it’s a long season and we’re givin’ you a couple weeks off in order to take a good look at Pedro. We’re tryin’ to win this thing again and we’re gonna ride the best pitchers we can find. Nothing’s in stone. Ya got 3 choices here: move to the pen & be patient and ready, go on the DL with an injury of our concoction or accept a trade - if we can arrange it - or outright release. Can ya take one for the team or is that altar boy reputation of yours only a fabrication? I understand this isn’t easy. Need an answer by tomorrow.