So I’m back from my Kansas City / St. Louis trip, and considered staying there until the Phillies lost, because they clearly play better when I don’t have access to TV or radio broadcast.
And what am I arriving back to? A team that just 2 1/2 weeks ago was at 39-37 and in real danger of dropping out of the division lead and seemed like it would have to make a big move to turn things around. Now? The Phils are 13-1 in their last 14, while the rest of the division has struggled, and they now have a 6.5 game lead on the Braves, the 2nd highest of any division leader.
But – let’s not get too excited. 6 1/2 games might seem like a lot, since the Phillies, despite winning the last to NL East titles, have not held a large division lead for a very long time. However, it’s July, and last year the Phillies were 3 1/2 back on September 10th and ended up winning the division by 3 games. Things can change very quickly in baseball, and you can’t take anything for granted.
So what are the biggest questions / issues surrounding the Phillies right now
1. Do we still need Roy Halladay?
Despite how it may seem, I don’t think this recent hot streak changes the Halladay situation one bit. First of all, even though we are playing well now, the game changes in the playoffs, and If we have to match up with Lincecum and Cain in the first round, Halladay and Hamels would be a lot better than Hamels and Blanton/Happ. Second, this is a 2-year trade, not a 1-year rental, who knows what will happen between now and October 2010, but you can’t let a hot streak in mid-2009 convince you that you will be OK through 2010.
What it does change is that we really would be stupid to overpay for Halladay. We don’t need him to push us over the top, but he certainly would help. If I am Ruben I give the Blue Jays 2 options (with Happ being the only untouchable because of how much is contributing to the current team)…
- Deal w/o Drabek: Give them their choice of Knapp/Carrasco, Taylor/Brown, Marson/Donald and then 1/2 others depending on the quality.
- Deal w/ Drabek: Give them Drabek, Brown/Taylor and Donald. You give away Drabek, but you reduce the prospect count to 3, helping retain some of the depth in the system.
If they demand more than either of those, I wouldn’t do it.
2. Is Brett Myers really that far ahead of schedule?
Now here is a story I wasn’t expecting to read. Phillies.com reported yesterday that Brett Myers is so ahead of schedule on his hip that he could return to the club as early as mid-August in a relief role. This could potential be a huge boost to our late inning struggles. We are quickly solidifying the rotation (Pedro, Lopez, maybe Halladay) and Myers could really be a help in a bullpen that could use it.
3. Has Jimmy turned it around for good?
It is no surprise that our recent hot streak has coincided with a mini-resurgence from Jimmy Rollins. In the last 14 games, Rollins is hitting .386 with a .477 OBP and 1.091 OPS. He has 14 runs, 10 extra-base hits and 5 steals as well. As good as the middle of the line-up is, it certainly seems that Rollins is the key to our success.
4. Whither Rodrigo?
So, when Pedro is ready to go, can you really take Rodrigo Lopez out of the rotation? We have won all 3 of his starts and he has yet to give up more than 2 runs. You can’t take him out of the rotation if he continues to pitch that way. And if you add Halladay to the mix without losing Happ, all of a sudden we’ve got Halladay, Hamels, Happ, Blanton, Moyer, Lopez and Martinez all capable of starting. Certainly a wonderful problem to have, but something to keep an eye on.
5. Who should be worried about in our division?
This was brought up in the comments, but I think is worth mentioning here. The whole season we’ve been looking over our shoulder at the Mets and Marlins, but it seems as though the Braves might be poised for a run, especially if they add a bat. They have the best rotation in the division with Lowe, Vazquez, Jurrjens, Kawakami and Tommy Hanson. Lowe has the worst ERA of the 5 at 4.40. They have some firepower on offense with Chipper, McCann and McClouth, but if they get more help, i’d be concerned about them.
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A couple things on the Halladay front:
From Ken Rosenthal, an interesting two-part article about 1) another option for the Phils—-Cliff Lee…………….“In theory, the price in talent for Lee should not be as high as the price for Halladay. But Lee is owed about $11.5 million in salary through 2010, including a club option. Halladay is owed about twice that much, making him — in one important sense — less attractive.”
“Halladay is 11-3 with a 2.73 ERA this season, while Lee is 5-9 with a 3.31 ERA — and the fifth-worst run support in the American League. Lee also leads the league with 136 innings pitched, though Halladay has thrown only four fewer innings in two fewer starts.”
“Teams use sliding scales when determining the values of potential trade acquisitions: What players are they giving up? How much salary are they taking on? Thus, Lee would be more appealing than Halladay, if the overall price was right.”
and 2) who the Jays might want in return for Halladay, meaning that value is in the eye of the beholder.
“The notion that the Jays cannot justify trading Halladay to the Phillies without acquiring Brown or the team’s other top prospect, Class AA right-hander Kyle Drabek, is absurd.”
“One scout who covers the Phillies says he likes Class A right-hander Jason Knapp, who is currently on the disabled list, even better than Drabek.”
“The same scout says he would be comfortable taking Class A outfielder Anthony Gose or Class AAA outfielder Michael Taylor if he could not acquire Brown.”
also from Jon Heyman that the Phils have told the Jays they will not include Drabek in a trade for Halladay.
“The latest word from a source familiar with Philadelphia’s thinking is that the front-running Phillies have decided they will not include top pitching prospect Kyle Drabek in a four-player package for superstar pitcher Roy Halladay, perhaps raising the chances that Halladay will be dealt elsewhere or maybe even stay with the Jays. The Phillies are believed to have told Toronto of their Drabek decision, but if they haven’t yet they will inform the Jays very soon.”
“Philadelphia has a bevy of respectable prospects, but opinions around baseball vary as to how decent the deal might be for Toronto without the inclusion of Drabek. The two teams have been discussing prospects, including outfielder Michael Taylor, shortstop Jason Donald and pitcher Carlos Carrasco. One AL exec flatteringly referred to Taylor as “a beast,” but another competing executive opined that Toronto would be unwise to deal with Philly and fail to come away without either Drabek or Jason Knapp, another pitching prospect. Yet another exec says they absolutely have to receive outfielder Dominic Brown if they can’t get Drabek. In any case, the Phillies appear to be drawing a line below Drabek, and with them starting to run away in the NL East thanks to nine straight victories, it’s almost understandable. Their need doesn’t appear to be quite so urgent now.”
BTW, Heyman is also reporting that Cliff Lee might be on the block:
“The Indians appear to be more seriously considering the possibility of trading star pitcher Cliff Lee in recent days, according to an Indians-connected person. Indians people have been very reluctant to deal Lee all along since they have a reasonable $9 million option on him for next year and no obvious, certain top-of-the-rotation replacement.”
good finds BSki – a couple thoughts….
- I’m not really all that interested in Cliff Lee. Last year still strikes me as a fluke and I don’t think he’s a sure thing to be good next year. Also, I don’t love the idea of 4 lefty starters.
- Taylor, Carrasco and Donald (plus some lower level prospects) would be an excellent move. I love Taylor, but he is expendable with Werth playing well, and Brown possibly ready by 2011.
- I don’t think money is/should be an issue. If the Phillies get Halladay, he will be a big draw both at the park and in the merch store, perhaps even paying for himself. He gives us a better chance of going deep in the playoffs, which is also a huge revenue boost. Between him and Pedro, I wouldn’t be surprised if the Phillies sold out all their remaining games.
Yeah, Cliff Lee is an iffy proposition. I’m hoping that the Phils are using it as a ploy with the Jays. Maybe Amaro has a pretty good idea that we have the best shot at getting Halladay and he’s continuing to explore other possibilities as a way of putting pressure on the Jays so they will accept less in return.
Most likely Amaro is exploring all possibilities and assessing each one for it’s total value (what we would be getting, what we would be giving up, $$$, etc….) to see if there is a viable fallback trade if we do not get Halladay. Simply due dilligence, being aware of all your options, and looking for the best over all value.
If we were to get Lee, I’m not sure we’d have 4 lefties in our rotation. I’m thinking the Indians would want Happ even more than the Jays would. I don’t know, Amaro could be thinking that if he could get Lee for Happ and not too much more he could achieve both of his objectives: help the club now while at the same time not gutting the farm, thereby maintaining a steady flow of young talent that will keep us winning in the future.
That said, I still want Halladay. A right-handed sinkerballer who is arguably the best pitcher in the game and for whom we have both the prospects with which to make a trade (and have it be only semi-painful) and the money to take him on the payroll. C’mon.
I agree, I still can’t get over Cliff Lee’s season last year as a fluke and as Pete said, unless we are talking about Sabathia or Santana, I don’t want to see another lefty starter.
I don’t even really see Lee as a major upgrade over Happ and giving up prospects for him seems like a desperate move and not one that would be worth it.
you cant give up happ for lee, we could end up signing happ for a cheaper long term contract, lee would be a quick fix that isn’t even pitching as well as happ, no way i’d give up an up and coming lefty for a lefty that might be headed down hill. after all, he has logged a lot of innings the last two years
I really don’t want to give up Happ in a deal for any pitcher. It never feels right to give away a big league pitcher for a big league pitcher. Plus, Happ has been through a postseason and a world series run – though he didn’t play much – I still think that can take the edge off when the bright lights hit him in October. I would include Drabek in a deal without blinking though. Pitching is arbuably the deepest part of our system. Where I start to get unasy is when I hear Donald, Brown, Marson all heading north. It sure is tough to trade away 3 guys preparing to replace 3 guys (Rollins, Ibanez, Ruiz) that are all on the back 9 of their career.
The Jays should throw in Rolen to sweeten the deal.
/sarcasm
Craziness. Happ is apparently a Cy Young candidate now? Lee is a major upgrade over Happ. Lee is pitching lights out after a slow start, was a Cy Young winner, and pitches in the AL. Lee is a legitimate no. 1 starter that can shut down any team. Happ has still not pitched against a good hitting team. Everyone is jumping on the Happ train. Eventually he will show what he really is: A no. 3 pichther with a ERA hovering around 4. A valuable pience but not anywhere near the quality of Lee. I am stunned at the low opinions of Lee and ridiculous crowing of Happ as a Cy Young candidate.
It is more likely that Drabek, Knapp, Carpenter, Carrasco will all be no.3 type pitchers. So we have plenty of Happs coming up.
who called Happ a Cy Young candidate? Certainly no one here.
Happ could be a cheap piece to our rotation for the next 6 years. He’s a similar pitcher to Lee, and despite Lee pitching well this year, he’s still giving up more than a hit an inning and strikes people out at about the same rate as Happ.
Pete,
Who (if either) do you value more: Marson or Donald? I was looking at their stats this year in the minors and they both seem to be hitting well, but nothing earth-shattering. Also, do you think there’s any chance (outside of injury) that we see Marson back up with the big club this year?
Chris -
That’s a good question, and I think different people would probably give different answers – but my personal preference would be to keep Marson.
I’m not sure where Donald fits in. He’s likely not going play SS for us in the next 2 years and probably not 3B next year (you’d have to think we will pick up Feliz’ option). He’s about to turn 25 and would be 26 or 27 when he actually gets to the majors. He could be a good starter somewhere right now and is a good chip. Don’t get me wrong, I like him, I just don’t know where he fits in.
Marson on the other hand, is an on-base machine for a catcher (though with very limited power) who just turned 23 a couple weeks ago. He would be a great 2-hitter in the future, but a solid 8-hitter as soon as next year. Not sure he’s as good as Ruiz defensively, but he isn’t a liability or anything.
Don’t think either will be an all-star or anything, but I like Marson better. Barring injury, I think they leave him in AAA the whole year and then have an open competition with him and Ruiz next spring.
Lee = Cy Young Winner. Lee won the Cy Young in the same league as Halladay, Beckett, Burnett etc. So if you want Happ over Lee then you’re saying Happ has that kind of potential. Happ has 5 starts!!!! That is not enough to make an evaluation to say that he is just as good as Lee or that his numbers are for real. I’m just sick of everyone all over Happ. I don’t think he’s pitched against a team over .500 yet! I like him but hes a no.3 at best. Someone who can do well against lesser competition but who will struggle against a solid lineup. Lee is a no.2 at worst. That is a major upgrade.
This isn’t football, there’s no cap. If we’re winning we can afford higher paid players. We’re not a small market club that needs to be overly concerned with payroll. Suddenly everyone is worried about not overpaying players. One year ago everyone was saying how cheap the phils are.
“This isn’t football, there’s no cap.”
I hear you about saving money where you can and having young cheap productive players. However, Lee’s salary is only 4mill this year and 6mill next year. Plus Myers, Jenkins, and Eaton are coming off the books. Which is about 24mill. Speaking of money. I am still dumbfounded that we signed Moyer to a 2 year deal. That was insane. Biggest mistake by Ruben so far. He should have said 1 year or walk. Championship blinders.
I say go for Halladay, but keep in mind, they will have to trade him this year or risk getting much less next year. Toronto knows they will never be able to afford what Halladay will get once he’s a free agent. I shouldn’t think unless some GM makes a desparate run for the playoffs and over pays for Halladay that it will cost as much as all these players being discussed. Toronto sounds anxious to me putting a drop dead date for a trade. If they weren’t so interested in trading Halladay they wouldn’t be making so many statements about it. They have already gotten the offers GM’s are willing to give. It will be Toronto, not the teams that will make the next call.
Also, the Dodgers are trying to pursue Halladay. The Phillies definitely don’t want to see him in that uniform, if they are the team to beat in the NL.
If the Dodgers offer up Clayton Kershaw, we won’t be able to beat any deal they put on the table. I can’t imagine they would though, that would be like us trading Hamels in his 2nd season.
What makes me wary is the recent history of the farm system. They have brought up through the system players at 1B, 2B, SS and LHP who could arguably end up top 4 all time in team history for their positions (3B if you include Rolen.) Normally I treat prospect hype with a skepticism, but if the top prospects pan out that well the team can’t give them away.
Its sort of like Sixer draft picks. Normally after #8 they are a crapshoot even to become a rotation player. Yet I would treat DiLeo’s picks as more valuable than the average mid to late 1st rounder because of his track record. In the same way, top Phillies prospects recently have become All Stars (and Utley will be a HOFer.) So I see current top Phillies prospects as more likely to be a sure thing than they were in the old days.
Maybe Ijust have on rose colored glasses, but when before has the system ever routinely churned out franchise great players across the entire infield? I don’t want to give up a LF/RF/LHP/RHP with similar potential from a farm where players are reaching beyond their percieved potential on a regular basis.
I don’t think there’s any way the Rays land Halladay. They don’t have the money to pay him and they covet their prospects as much or more than any big league club.
And if the Brewers ship out some more top level prospects for another all-star rental they are going to be in the same position the Pirates are in now. Halladay goes to Milwaukee this year and they’ll have to start dumping big leage players in two years just to rebuild their system. But they sure would be a scary team for the next year and half.
I just wish that July 31st would get here, so all of this talk would be settled. I sure would love to see Halladay as a Philly, but I don’t want to give up the farm.
I firmly agree with TK76. Our system has been producing a lot of great players the last few years. If the Phillies think someone is untouchable, I’m going to trust their track record and say keep the guy.
When I think about it I can’t possibly imagine giving up the opportunity to land Doc. We’ve got this team together – in its prime – for this year and next. You add Halladay and now we are the WS favorites for the next 2 postseasons. The subsequent year and a half would be a sight to see. The Phillies could very well win 3 consecutive World Series titles, something the likes of which can’t even be imagined by sports fans in this city. Think 75-80 sellouts a year. You sell tickets like that you can invest significant amounts of cash into the draft and development. And if we fall off a cliff, we fall off a cliff. At least we’ll have all those banners to help us parachute to the bottom.
Chris M-
again I say it Toronto who is anxious to trade Halladay, Toronto doesn’t need to rebuild. Why would you trade a picture of Halladays talant> Toronto needs to add to its team, not trade away the talent they have now. They don’t have the money to. Where to get it? trade away your highest salary so you can afford two maybe three quality players. They are only going to lost him after next year anyway and now is the time they will get the most for him. I cringe seeing all these players named for him. In the end, we’ll see it won’t take an overwhelmed deal to get him as Toronto would like other teams and the media to believe. Carruso and Donald and a lower level guy.
So where do people place the odds for winning 1 or 2 more WS with and without Halliday?
-my guess:
Without Halliday:
1 more WS: 25%
2 : 5%
0 WS but a pennant: 45%
With Halladay:
1 WS: 40%
2 WS: 12%
0 WS but a pennant: 75%
Overall, WS is at some level a crapshoot. You need to be not only good, but hot at the right time. Teams have won 100+ games and run away with their divisions, and then gotten beaten by a lesser but hot team in the playoffs.
Pete,
I’ve seen a few articles suggesting that the Halladay deal my include other players. Possibly Scutaro (we don’t really need him) and maybe some of their better pieces from the bullpen. I’ve heard the rumors about Vernon Wells’ Dalembert-esque contract going with Doc in any deal. Is their anyone you think the Phills may want in that situation from the Jays?
Wells has been basically a less productive Jayson Werth. Wells has 10HR/39RBI is 376 AB while Werth needed only 331 to get to 21HR/61RBI. Plus, all of Wells’ AB came at either 3 or 4. He’d be a nice RH bat off the bench, but at the kind of money he makes its like paying Ferrari money for a ‘96 Accord.
I also wouldn’t mind Jason Frasor in the bullpen. It’d be nice to land Scott Downs, we could use another LHP out there. Would probably only happen if the Jays decide to selloff everything.
Sorry for the Halladay typos. My fingers sometimes get ahead of my brain.
tk76:
w/o Doc:
2009 NLCS (~25% at a WS – I agree, we have to be hot – especially in the NL)
2010 Postseason (~50% at a pennant)
With Halladay
2009 WS Title – 110%
2010 NL Pennant, ~80% at a title. Really depends on how well Raul and J-Roll hold up every day.
Quick question: Does anyone know whether we get 2 first round picks (like Toronto would) if we ended up getting Halladay and he signed somewhere else after a year and a half here?
Another thing to remember is that a talented team makes it easier to rebuild. Just like Toronto is doing this year, we could trade Utley, Rollins, and/or Howard during their last year of the contract and get back good prospects. Not to mention compensatory first round draft picks if they sign elsewhere.
Prospects are not a limited resource, a no 1 pitcher is. Go for broke, trade Drabek and get Halladay.
drew -
we would get picks. though I believe the Brewers got screwed this year because the Yankees signed too many free-agents and could only dish out so many picks.
I’ll play
Without Halladay:
1 more WS: 15%
2 : 2%
0 WS but a pennant: 40%
With Halladay:
1 WS: 30%
2 WS: 5%
0 WS but a pennant: 75%
pretty much agree with tk76 there
Drew, I’m with you. I think Rollins will definitely be traded sometime in the next couple years. I’d like to see them keep Utley and Hamels and to an extent Howard. But when Howard gets to about 34-35 he’d be the ideal guy for the American League. I would not be surprised to see Werth and Victorino traded as well.
A little off-topic: Anyone else worried about this damn rain? We live in Philadelphia not Sri Lanka right??
Pete, thanks for the answer.
Chris, I’m with you on the rain. They should just push Hamels back to tomorrow so he doesn’t get cut short again tonight. Everyone got an extra day rest from the Marlins rain out anyway.
My odds (they include risk of injuries):
w/o doc
1 WS: 8%
2WS: 2%
Pennant: 25%
w/doc
1 WS: 30%
2 WS: 7%
Pennant: 70%
I did this without looking closely at the others. After looking at the others I was close to tk and pete but a bit lower without doc. Without him I feel like we are one or two injuries away from missing the playoffs. With him I feel like we can withstand more injuries. That’s probably why I increased the odds by about 3 times.
gotta love Jayson Stark…
LOADS of stuff from his most recent rumblings…
the highlights for me…
“Meanwhile, as hard as the Phillies are working to pull off this deal, they also appear to be doing everything they can to make it without including either their top pitching prospect, Kyle Drabek, or J.A. Happ, who is currently 7-0 in the big leagues and has become their most dependable starter.
One rival GM we surveyed said if the Phillies have to deal one of those two, it should be Drabek, because there’s almost no recent precedent for teams winning after subtracting a significant player from their big league mix to make a major trade.
“If you’re a team that’s good enough to be in the race, you never want to deplete what you’ve got,” the GM said. “If you’re looking for a building block, you can’t move one building block out and bring another one in. The idea is to add that block to the group, not take one out of the group.”
“Another big decision the Phillies may have to make is which of their highly touted outfield prospects — Michael Taylor (currently in Triple-A) or Dominic Brown (on the DL in the Florida State League) — to include in a Halladay deal. One scout who has seen a lot of the Phillies’ minor league system says all the people who think Taylor is the more expendable player aren’t paying attention.
“I like him better than Dominic Brown, to be honest,” the scout said. “I just think you have a lot of guys who will never change their opinion because he wasn’t a high pick. But this guy can hit. He can run. The ball jumps off his bat. He’s got good bat speed. He’s not a dead-pull hitter. He hits gap to gap. You can’t throw the fastball by him. He stays on the breaking ball and drives it to right-center. He can throw. He’s not a bad outfielder at all. And he plays hard. There’s nothing not to like about this guy.”
• On J.A. Happ: “This guy has to be the most underrated pitcher in the National League. He’s pitching his tail off. He’s got the ability to hide the ball and create deception. And he pitches vertical. So even if you’re looking fastball, the ball is on you fast. And you see some pretty weak hacks.”
• A second take on Happ: “I’ve really upped him on my reports. I used to have him as a No. 4 starter, kind of a poor man’s Andy Pettitte. Now I think he’s a No. 3. I think he’s becomeAndy Pettitte — and he’s actually pitching better than the Andy Pettitte who’s pitching for the Yankees.”
Lots of other Phillies stuff in that article, didn’t want to put IT ALL here