LOADS of stuff from his most recent rumblings…

the highlights for me…

“Meanwhile, as hard as the Phillies are working to pull off this deal, they also appear to be doing everything they can to make it without including either their top pitching prospect, Kyle Drabek, or J.A. Happ, who is currently 7-0 in the big leagues and has become their most dependable starter.

One rival GM we surveyed said if the Phillies have to deal one of those two, it should be Drabek, because there’s almost no recent precedent for teams winning after subtracting a significant player from their big league mix to make a major trade.

“If you’re a team that’s good enough to be in the race, you never want to deplete what you’ve got,” the GM said. “If you’re looking for a building block, you can’t move one building block out and bring another one in. The idea is to add that block to the group, not take one out of the group.”

“Another big decision the Phillies may have to make is which of their highly touted outfield prospects — Michael Taylor (currently in Triple-A) or Dominic Brown (on the DL in the Florida State League) — to include in a Halladay deal. One scout who has seen a lot of the Phillies’ minor league system says all the people who think Taylor is the more expendable player aren’t paying attention.

“I like him better than Dominic Brown, to be honest,” the scout said. “I just think you have a lot of guys who will never change their opinion because he wasn’t a high pick. But this guy can hit. He can run. The ball jumps off his bat. He’s got good bat speed. He’s not a dead-pull hitter. He hits gap to gap. You can’t throw the fastball by him. He stays on the breaking ball and drives it to right-center. He can throw. He’s not a bad outfielder at all. And he plays hard. There’s nothing not to like about this guy.”

• On J.A. Happ: “This guy has to be the most underrated pitcher in the National League. He’s pitching his tail off. He’s got the ability to hide the ball and create deception. And he pitches vertical. So even if you’re looking fastball, the ball is on you fast. And you see some pretty weak hacks.”

• A second take on Happ: “I’ve really upped him on my reports. I used to have him as a No. 4 starter, kind of a poor man’s Andy Pettitte. Now I think he’s a No. 3. I think he’s becomeAndy Pettitte — and he’s actually pitching better than the Andy Pettitte who’s pitching for the Yankees.”

Lots of other Phillies stuff in that article, didn’t want to put IT ALL here

Chris, I’m with you on the rain. They should just push Hamels back to tomorrow so he doesn’t get cut short again tonight. Everyone got an extra day rest from the Marlins rain out anyway.

My odds (they include risk of injuries):
w/o doc
1 WS: 8%
2WS: 2%
Pennant: 25%

w/doc
1 WS: 30%
2 WS: 7%
Pennant: 70%

I did this without looking closely at the others. After looking at the others I was close to tk and pete but a bit lower without doc. Without him I feel like we are one or two injuries away from missing the playoffs. With him I feel like we can withstand more injuries. That’s probably why I increased the odds by about 3 times.

A little off-topic:  Anyone else worried about this damn rain?  We live in Philadelphia not Sri Lanka right??

we would get picks. though I believe the Brewers got screwed this year because the Yankees signed too many free-agents and could only dish out so many picks.

I’ll play

Without Halladay:
1 more WS: 15%
2 : 2%
0 WS but a pennant: 40%

With Halladay:
1 WS: 30%
2 WS: 5%
0 WS but a pennant: 75%

pretty much agree with tk76 there

Another thing to remember is that a talented team makes it easier to rebuild.  Just like Toronto is doing this year, we could trade Utley, Rollins, and/or Howard during their last year of the contract and get back good prospects.  Not to mention compensatory first round draft picks if they sign elsewhere.

Prospects are not a limited resource, a no 1 pitcher is. Go for broke, trade Drabek and get Halladay.

w/o Doc:
2009 NLCS (~25% at a WS – I agree, we have to be hot – especially in the NL)
2010 Postseason (~50% at a pennant)

With Halladay
2009 WS Title – 110%
2010 NL Pennant, ~80% at a title.  Really depends on how well Raul and J-Roll hold up every day.

I’ve seen a few articles suggesting that the Halladay deal my include other players.  Possibly Scutaro (we don’t really need him) and maybe some of their better pieces from the bullpen.  I’ve heard the rumors about Vernon Wells’ Dalembert-esque contract going with Doc in any deal.  Is their anyone you think the Phills may want in that situation from the Jays?

Wells has been basically a less productive Jayson Werth.  Wells has 10HR/39RBI is 376 AB while Werth needed only 331 to get to 21HR/61RBI.  Plus, all of Wells’ AB came at either 3 or 4.  He’d be a nice RH bat off the bench, but at the kind of money he makes its like paying Ferrari money for a ’96 Accord.

I also wouldn’t mind Jason Frasor in the bullpen.  It’d be nice to land Scott Downs, we could use another LHP out there.  Would probably only happen if the Jays decide to selloff everything.

-my guess:
Without Halliday:
1 more WS: 25%
2 : 5%
0 WS but a pennant: 45%

With Halladay:
1 WS: 40%
2 WS: 12%
0 WS but a pennant: 75%

Overall, WS is at some level a crapshoot.  You need to be not only good, but hot at the right time.  Teams have won 100+ games and run away with their divisions, and then gotten beaten by a lesser but hot team in the playoffs.