August 1, 2014

What To Expect From Domonic Brown

It’s being reported that the Phillies will place Shane Victorino on the DL and bring up the top prospect in baseball, Domonic Brown.

Brown is the Phillies most celebrated hitting prospect since Ryan Howard was called up 7 years ago (has it been that long!?). It’s unclear whether he will be sent right back down after Vic gets back, but hopefully he can hit his way into the line-up full time.

I’m pretty excited – how about you?

I’m going to work on a “what should we expect” post on Brown that will be included in this post once I’m done.

Also check the comments for updates.

What To Expect From Domonic Brown

There have been more elite offensive prospects come up this year than in any other year I can remember. It works out for this exercise because what I’m going to do is compare what those players have done in the minors (and how those number compare to Dom) and how those number translated to the majors (which will tell us what to expect).

First, here is a list of major offensive prospects that have been called up this year, and what their minor league numbers were in 2010 prior to call-up. For Jason Heyward and Justin Smoak, I used 2009 numbers (hence the asterisk) because they hardly played in the minors this year, if at all.

The “rank” is where Keith Law had them prior to the 2010 season.

So as you can see, Brown’s numbers were pretty much in line with the average numbers of all the prospects. A couple less walks, a couple more HR’s and certainly more steals. But pretty much the same.

Now let’s see how everyone except Brown has done so far in the majors.

So this shows that there is really no rhyme or reason to this. Some players just kept on mashing (Posey, Santana), some hit well but showed a understandable drop from minor league numbers (Heyward, Castro) and some are having more problems than expected (Stanton, Smoak, Alvarez).

When you take the averages from the rate stats for major and minor league production, you get an idea of what the expected drop-off is when a player of this caliber reaches the majors this season.

So, when you take those expected changes and apply them to Brown’s actual MiLB numbers, you get…

There you go. You don’t even have to watch him play now, because this round-a-bout way of analysis is probably totally foolproof. Either way, Brown’s impact on the team could be Posey-like or it could be Smoak-like. I personally think his plate discipline and raw tools mean the former is more likely.

We start to find out tonight.

For all of ReclinerGM’s Phillies’ prospects articles, visit our Prospect Page

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Comments

  1. Pete says:

    also – trade rumor update from JStark….

    Phils appear to have moved on from Oswalt to guys like Jake Westbrook (no thanks) and Fausto Carmona (yes, please).

    Octavio Dotel (yes, please) is on their bullpen radar.

  2. Wilson says:

    Very exciting!  I’m glad the Phils left Mayberry in AAA.  He can join the Phils in September.

  3. Richie says:

    I’m really excited for the Dom Brown Era to begin, but I have two concerns…First, who leads off tonight? I say Werth, Polly, Ibanez, Howard, Brown, Dobbs, Ruiz, Valdez, Halladay. Second, does Dom get sent right back down if Vic comes back in 15 days?

  4. Ruben says:

    I hope he plays everyday.

  5. b.ski says:

    hopefully he can hit his way into the line-up full time……..
     
     
     
    I hope so too.  Not to look too far ahead or anything, but our team is getting older.  It would be nice if we could start infusing some youth into the roster on a regular basis, for several reasons.  Since we have several outfielders with potential in the minors  I’m hoping we can start here, and today could be the day we get underway with it.
     
     
    With our infield locked up, and hopefully healthy, for the next couple/few years, maybe we can give our young outfield some time to  mature and form at least a good part of a new core before we then need replace the infield.
     
     
     
     
     
     

  6. b.ski says:

    Just found an update (2:36PM) on Oswalt from Ken Rosenthal:
     
     
     
    The Phillies are positioned to get Roy Oswalt — if they want him.
    The talent exchange for the Astors’ right-hander is “pretty much agreed on” and not contingent on the Phillies making a separate trade involving right fielder Jayson Werth, according to a source with knowledge of the discussions.
    The Phillies know what the Astros want for Oswalt. The question is whether the Phils are willing to follow through on such a deal.
    Phillies officials are divided on whether to part with left-hander J.A. Happ and prospects for Oswalt — and take on the approximately $5 million remaining in Oswalt’s salary this season, plus his $16 million salary for 2011 and possibly another $16 million in ’12.
    The Cardinals have informed the Astros that they are no longer pursuing Oswalt, sources say. The Reds made a cursory call, but no names were exchanged. The Dodgers remain interested, but the discussions have failed to progress.
    The Astros are willing to include cash in any deal, sources say, but the amount they are willing to offer is not believed to be significant.

     
    Reading that makes me wonder if Oswalt is more of a plan B, if not a last resort, at this point.  If, as Rosenthal’s article suggests, the details are pretty much in place, would that would mean Amaro is first looking for better value (i.e. a bullpen arm and an infielder), knowing he can go back and get the Oswalt deal done if he feels he needs to?
     

  7. Zach says:

    I’m very glad that Brown has a chance to get some at bats, possibly in the starting lineup, at this point in the season. I see him being a major contributor next year assuming Werth is not signed, so I think it’s important for him to get some decent work in the big leagues this year. Hate to see Vic go down, but this is a nice silver lining.

  8. jkay says:

    Victorino going down is not the best for us defensively. i dont trust Werth that much in CF. he doesnt read balls well all the time.
    hope Dom Brown can hold his own in RF. will be interesting to see his speed in the outfield. does he close on well? throw to home plate, bases?
    very excited. hope he gets the start tonight even. dont wanna see Gload or Dobbs.

  9. Pete says:

    According the PHL17 – Brown will hit 6th tonight…

    1. Polanco
    2. Dobbs
    3. Ibanez
    4. Howard
    5. Werth
    6. Brown
    7. Ruiz
    8. Valdez
    9. Halladay

  10. Ruben says:

    I’m sick of Oswalt

  11. phillyfan says:

    I tend to not get very excited about minor league call-ups.  Howard and Strasburg are the only ones in many years that have wowed me right off the bat.  Heyward had a nice month but is back to more of what is expected, pretty average.  I have no expectations, and expect him to struggle.  but of course I hope he kills it.  It is bittersweet because in the larger picture I think losing Victorino gives up less of a chance to get to the playoffs.  And right now this team doesn’t need another question mark.  Let’s remember, he was only the number 1 minor leaguers because so many others ahead of him already got called up, and many of those are struggling.  So, not to pour water on things, but the exception would be if he makes any difference at all.  As Pete’s post shows, it is really a crapshoot how he will do – kinda like NFL draft picks. 

  12. phillyfan says:

    MEant that I have no “great” expectiation, and expect him to struggle.

  13. phillyfan says:

    I am sick of Oswalt too and have posted that I don’t want him.  But if we could get him for Happ and 2-3 minor leaguers in the 4-7th best in the system range, then I jump on it.  I think Happ is really being overvalued and has Kyle Kendrick written all over him.

  14. EVFORCE says:

    I’d go for Carmona and a reliever.

  15. jkay says:

    i disagree about Happ. Kyle Kendrick is a sinker-baller with no go-to offspeed pitch, or better said no control of it. Happ has a decent fastball when healthy, can locate it and use a decent change up and curve/slider to balance it.
    a poor man’s Hamels. but the what decides it for me is his ability to keep double down and keep runners from scoring.  some of it can be attributed to being his he was fresh and no one had seen him but it still shows  strong competitiveness. its still evident from his 2-3 early starts this season when he walked 12 batters, allowed 14 hits but recorded 4 ER! while running his pitch count up and exiting early. sure that is something else to be concerned about but i think once he gets the control down it will be ameliorated.
    he’ll be a very fine #4 IMO.

  16. Ruben says:

    Just looked up Carmonas and Westbrooks numbers on fangraphs. And just looking at some of the basic numbers, nothing really sticks out to me other than the gb%.
    Carmona – 4.98k/9, 3.51 bb/9, .269 BABIP, .49 hr/9,  57.5% GB, 3.51 ERA, 4.00 FIP and 4.52 XFIP.
    Westbrook – 5.15k/9. 3.10 bb/9, 1.08 hr/9, .291 BABIp, 53.3% GB,  4.65 ERA, 4.67 FIP, and 4.40  XFIP.
    other than gb% and Carmona hr/9, everything else looks average…. for both pitchers. Not that I’m saying i don’t want him because I’d take Carmona over westbrook and oswalt on any day of the week but he is a fluke. Carmona BABIP is .269. Thats ridiculously lucky. Carmona does however have a very good fastball/sinker as it is 10.1 w/above average.
     

  17. Ken Bland says:

    wow, what a start!

  18. jkay says:

    would have been more dramatic with a HR
    good speed.

  19. The Other Stu says:

    Another consideration with Westbrook and Carmona is their contracts. Westbrook would be a rental through the end of this year, while Carmona is not only signed through next year, but has club options for each of the next three years after that.
     
    Ben Sheets done for the year, FWIW.

  20. jkay says:

    bunt!!!! for the love of….

  21. jkay says:

    lol men thats how much Valdez scares me. i was hoping for a bunt with no outs and Doc on deck.

  22. Ken Bland says:

    The Ohils inquiring on Ted Lilly today is a smart business move in that it will give Houston a sense of urgency to get the deal done, which I’m thinking Ruben views a s a priority today. 

    By the same token, last year, inretrospect, we should have gone after Doc after we got Cliff, particularly since we didn’t give up a lot.  You wonder how much would be left after dealing with Houston since it seems apparent that JW isn’t going there, or even for prospects to get Oswalt, and Lilly in the 4 instead of Blanton would be good.  Now whether Ruben feels like he should double up is a question only he can answer, but I’d like the pitching depth.  I’m assuming that happ would be gone. 

  23. Ken Bland says:

    Phils appear to have moved on from Oswalt to guys like Jake Westbrook (no thanks) and Fausto Carmona (yes, please).>>

    I haven’t commented on Carmona because I don’t see Cleveland giving him up.
    I wonder what Stark’s conclusion on the Phils moving on is. (on Oswalt)

  24. Ken Bland says:

    I meant what his conclusion is based on.  That’s not what I’m hearing and reading.

  25. Stu says:

    I guess Dom Brown isn’t gonna bat 1.000 for his career.

  26. The Other Stu says:

    Heyman also reported on SI that the Phils called Milwaukee about Corey Hart…
     
    Can somebody explain that one to me?

  27. Matt N. says:

    Comcast just flashed that Dom Brown is the first Phillie to have an RBI double in his first P.A. since my grandfathers cousin, Ron Northey.

  28. jkay says:

    if you go by stats alone we have gotten good pitching all season. what we have got too is a lot of blown saves and blown out games from bullpen issues. Hamels is pitching very well, Doc is there, but with Moyer gone and Blanton struggling there is a need for SP. a #3 or 4 not a #1.  so why are we going after Oswalt? still trying to figure it out.

  29. jkay says:

    correction: starting pitching.

  30. Ken Bland says:

    Other, no clue on Hart.

    so why are we going after Oswalt?

    First off, who has 1 ace anymore?  Second, Oswalt has been to 1 WS.  He’s quite good, but he never got a team to a WS by himself.  He had help from Pettite and Clemens.  That’d be my guess. 

  31. Ruben says:

    I don’t want Oswalt. He doesn’t want to play for us so don’t. He can stay in Houston amd make his money while his team loses.
     
    Corey Hart? What?
     

  32. Pete says:

    If we trade for Oswalt – I’m not going to dislike the guy though… and as long as he pitches well…

    Hart, to me, would be a move for 2011. A righty OF bat. Not sure where that leaves Ibanez/Brown, but I guess that is the mindset.

  33. Ken Bland says:

    Guessing Doc goes 9 tonight, give the pen a night off with the back of the rotation next.

  34. jkay says:

    KB: who has 2 aces and a Lidge? its like filling a bucket with water and then leaking from one end. small, prudent quality moves – that was the trademark of Pat Gillick. RAJ is just an excitable GM with too much to play with.

  35. Ruben says:

    I’d rather have Jose Bautista rather than Hart. Both Jose and Hart are below average fielders but Jose can at least play third, which would allow Charlie to move Polly to second and when Utley gets back Jose can move into the outfield. But the problem with that is when Shane gets back Brown will get sent down.
    I want Brown to be up with the big club and while Ibanez is playing better of late but I want Brown to be the every day player.

  36. Ruben says:

    ….Ibanez is playing better of late, I want Brown to be the every day player.
    oops, my grammer is the worst.

  37. Ken Bland says:

    Jkay,

    You asked why they were going after an ace type instead of a 3/4.

    I agree with your assessment, but now you’re getting into a different subject.

    I’m beyond discussing Lidge.  If they haven’t let him go yet, he’s here for the contract so I just hope for the best.  That’s all I can say on that subject.

  38. Ken Bland says:

    Oswalt info from the past 30 minutes.

    http://twitter.com/SI_JonHeyman/status/19784329791

  39. Ruben says:

    Carmona got lit up.

  40. jkay says:

    fyi  Corey Hart is currently injured. wrist.

  41. Dannie says:

    Anyone at all concerned about Roy’s innings on the season? Isn’t he projected to pitch the most of his career for a regular season (14-15 more starts) and if we make the playoffs even more.

  42. Ruben says:

    Never thought about all the innings. He was projected to pitch 273 innings before this start. Wow.

  43. Ken Bland says:

    Anyone at all concerned about Roy’s innings on the season>>

    absolutely!  But if I’m concerned about it, the ball calub is and I trust their judgement, and I’m sure Doc has a feel at least for his limitations.

    One thing to note.  Innings are generally less pitches for Doc, so chop a little off his glaring number.

  44. Ken Bland says:

    ahem Mr. Brown

  45. Ken Bland says:

    bad, bad play

  46. b.ski says:

    I am, Dannie.  280 innings (projected) is a lot.  His career high is 266 and that was in 2003.  He threw 246 two years ago, which means his current pace equates to 1 extra inning per start for the entire season.  Then there are the playoffs, like you mentioned.
     
     
    Halladay has mentioned a few times that he is not concerned about it.  He said he simply adjusts his routine between starts based on how he feels/what he needs rest-wise to compensate and stay strong.  He has been throwing 220+ innings consistently for a while now and he should know his body, so I guess we have to trust him to not overwork himself.

  47. jkay says:

    the more success he has, the more Charlie trusts him.
    the more Charlie trusts him, the more he allows him to stay on in late innings.
    the less credible our back end of the bullpen gets, the more Halladay will pitch deep into games.
    the more he wins, the more the club wins. the more we catch up to the division lead, the more we depend on him to pitch crucial games.
     

  48. Ken Bland says:

    The Rangers are not confident in their ability to acquire Fielder, according to Yahoo’s Jeff Passan (via Twitter). They don’t want to give up too many prospects, but the Brewers are asking for a mammoth return. >>

    Interesting information.  Note the absence of financial concern despite the potential obligation to Oswalt and Rangers bankruptcy situation. .  The hell with Prince Fielder, if Houston is that intent on getting rid of Oswalt. the Rangers should deal the damned prospects and get Oswalt, get Lance Berkmanto solve their 1B problem, and actually have a shot at beating NY, BOS or TB.

    Brown is on the post game.  Sarge is interviewing him.  DB keeps calling him Sarge.  I wonder if DB even knows his first name is Gary.  This kid is gone be fun to root for. 

  49. The Other Stu says:

    I feel like Doc’s high inning count could be overblown. Even when he goes the distance in games, he doesn’t seem to throw an exorbitant amount of pitches. Take tonight for example: 114 pitches in 9 innings. If he was going 6 innings every time out, you probably wouldn’t be worried about his inning total, even if he was actually throwing 120 pitches in those 6 innings.
     
    I have no data to support any of the above statements.

  50. The Other Stu says:

    Hmm, seems like others weighed in with the same general sentiment before I finished my response: In Doc’s case, more innings does not necessarily equate to more work.

  51. Ken Bland says:

    So the Braves win tonight and its still 3.5.

    Day game for them tomorrow, so we’ll know by gametime if we are doing 3 or 4 for the weekend.

    7 and counting.

  52. Ken Bland says:

    Hmm, seems like others weighed in with the same general sentiment before I finished my response:>>

    That’s called having your back, Other. :)

  53. b.ski says:

    True.  Hamels threw what 108 pitches to get through 5 yesterday, and since he had to get out of all those jams he probably ended up working harder than Halladay did tonight in going  all 9.

  54. Pete says:

    2010 leaders in most pitches, prior to tonight’s start…

    1. Jered Weaver, 2422 (141 IP)
    2. Felix Hernandez, 2415 (160.2)
    3. Dan Haren, 2381 (145.2)
    4. Justin Verlander, 2319 (137.1)
    5. CC Sabathia, 2307 (151.1)
    6. Randy Wolf, 2297 (135)
    7. Ryan Dempster, 2295 (140.2)
    8. John Lackey, 2290 (135.1)
    9. Roy Halladay, 2290 (162)
    Last year, Halladay was 17th in the league in pitches (3,392) despite being 2nd in IP.

  55. Pete says:

    Everything I am reading makes me think we are getting Oswalt.

    We are the only team mentioned for him. We are constantly being mentioned for him right now. And people are saying the Astros are saying Myers in unavailable because they don’t want to trade him and Oswalt, leading me to believe they are set on moving him.

  56. Phil D says:

    Who will they have to give up?

  57. The Real Rob says:

    Trade talk has intensified:
    http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=5418615

    Something tells me the Phillies will go left or right handed, but not  empty-handed!!

  58. phillyfan says:

    If we get Oswalt it will be a disaster.  This guy does not want to be here.  HE won’t fit.

  59. jurnee16 says:

    Ken Rosenthal just tweeted that FOX26 in Houston is reporting the Phils and Astros have a deal in place for Oswalt…like someone said earlier it looks like we are pretty much bidding against ourselves at this point so hopefully we didn’t have to give much up besides Happ, Singleton, and midlevel guys….

  60. Ruben says:

    Oswalt is 1 win shy or whatever from tying or breaking an Astros record. He reportedly wants that record, so he will pitch on friday. Lets just hope something happens in that game. haha.

  61. b.ski says:

    Just to follow up on our discussion of Halladay’s IP, I found an interesting bit of info on fangraphs…
     
     
    His 171 innings represents a six inning increase over his previous high through 22 starts which came last season.
     
     
     
    And since Pete gave us his total pitches, I decided to check how it compares to last year.  Updated to include last night’s start, Halladay has thrown 2404 pitches through 22 starts this year and he threw 2302 pitches through 22 starts last year.
     
     
    So, Halladay has thrown 6 more innings and 102 more pitches through 22 starts this year compared with last year, which roughly equates to one extra start so far.  Not as much of a jump as it appears when you first look at this year’s numbers in isolation.
     
     
     
     

  62. Pat says:

    Why isn’t Domonic Brown starting tonight?

  63. tk76 says:

    L handed?

  64. Pete says:

    Charlie said that he was going to use him mostly against righties.