It’s being reported that the Phillies will place Shane Victorino on the DL and bring up the top prospect in baseball, Domonic Brown.
Brown is the Phillies most celebrated hitting prospect since Ryan Howard was called up 7 years ago (has it been that long!?). It’s unclear whether he will be sent right back down after Vic gets back, but hopefully he can hit his way into the line-up full time.
I’m pretty excited – how about you?
I’m going to work on a “what should we expect” post on Brown that will be included in this post once I’m done.
Also check the comments for updates.
What To Expect From Domonic Brown
There have been more elite offensive prospects come up this year than in any other year I can remember. It works out for this exercise because what I’m going to do is compare what those players have done in the minors (and how those number compare to Dom) and how those number translated to the majors (which will tell us what to expect).
First, here is a list of major offensive prospects that have been called up this year, and what their minor league numbers were in 2010 prior to call-up. For Jason Heyward and Justin Smoak, I used 2009 numbers (hence the asterisk) because they hardly played in the minors this year, if at all.
The “rank” is where Keith Law had them prior to the 2010 season.
So as you can see, Brown’s numbers were pretty much in line with the average numbers of all the prospects. A couple less walks, a couple more HR’s and certainly more steals. But pretty much the same.
Now let’s see how everyone except Brown has done so far in the majors.
So this shows that there is really no rhyme or reason to this. Some players just kept on mashing (Posey, Santana), some hit well but showed a understandable drop from minor league numbers (Heyward, Castro) and some are having more problems than expected (Stanton, Smoak, Alvarez).
When you take the averages from the rate stats for major and minor league production, you get an idea of what the expected drop-off is when a player of this caliber reaches the majors this season.
So, when you take those expected changes and apply them to Brown’s actual MiLB numbers, you get…
There you go. You don’t even have to watch him play now, because this round-a-bout way of analysis is probably totally foolproof. Either way, Brown’s impact on the team could be Posey-like or it could be Smoak-like. I personally think his plate discipline and raw tools mean the former is more likely.
We start to find out tonight.
For all of ReclinerGM’s Phillies’ prospects articles, visit our Prospect Page