Holliday and Fuentes to the Phillies? Would you do it?

If there was a way to replace Marson with another player, it’s a no brainer. With Marson in the deal it’s a much tougher deal, since a catcher who can hit is so hard to find (see Ruiz, Carlos). At the end of the day, I’d bite the bullet and go all in.

4. The back of the lineup is still going to give us fits, and we get thinner against lefties without Victorino back there. We are basically counting on 1-5 (of which we are still missing a piece) to do everything.

Why are we so concerned about the future? There’s a possibility that both Howard and Hamels walk. Outside of Cole, the rest of our stars are in their late 20’s, and will be in their early 30s when our prospects are ready to actually contribute.

This organization built a great ballpark to make more revenue, yet they’ve barely raised their payroll. They’re not going to resign Burrell, and say “But we resigned Lidge!” They’re not going to resign Howard either. This may be our best shot at getting to a World Series that we’ll have in the next ten years. Current ownership only cares about padding their pockets, not winning a ring.

Question, would adding Holliday even be necessary if they had resigned Rowand last year?

i can argue both ways on this one. see my post from the blanton message board and pretty much what everyone else has said as to why we should not do it.

and here is why we should. 25 years of futility. i have said over and over again (not on this blog, just in life) that i would be completely content if i was florida marlins fan. i would be more than happy and content to win a championship once every 5-7 years and then just completely suck for the years in between. why not go all in and hope to win a championship. we can then leverage all those stars into young studs and rebuild. sure, we will suck for a few years until those studs are major league ready, but we might have the championship to keep us happy during that time.

the real issue is whether or not this trade actually gets us a championship because pitching wins the world series, not hitting. and right now, even with that lineup, the phils might not win anything if the bats fail to come alive (see NLDS 2007).

I love this purely as a thought exercise. It’s interesting to put yourself in the GM’s place and work through the different scenarios. I am conflicted, because I agree with both sides of the argument.

On the one side, from the perspective of a fan who’s only concern is to win now, I agree with Dan. I am firmly of the opinion that we have three years, including this one, to make our run and we should do everything possible to make it happen. Looking at it this way, I make the trade without hesitation. The risky side of this approach is that you are going all in now. If the move doesn’t pay off, we are in serious long term trouble.

On the other side, I agree with Clicheguevera. By making the trade, we are digging a big hole, from which it could take years to crawl out of. It’s a huge gamble when you consider that, in all likelihood, Fuentes will leave after this year, and Holliday will leave after next year. Looking at it this way, there is no way you should make the deal. The risky side of this approach is that by not making the deal, you’re relying on unproven minor leaguers to step in next year and give you more than what you have now. If they don’t, you are wasting more of the precious little time you have left with the Howard, Utley, Rollins, Hamels, Lidge core.

Realistically, neither this trade, nor any other of similar magnitude will happen. I say this for two reasons:

1) I get the sense that Gillick would think it unfair to leave his successor in the position of having to deal with any potential fallout.

2) Ownership knows they will not spend enough to justify making the deal.

I look at building a winner simplistically. I believe that, in order to truly be a title contender, a team must accumulate enough talent at one time to get the job done. In order to do that, a team has got to spend enough to hold on to the talent they have while simultaneously spending enough to bring in the additional talent necessary to make a run. This is the best collection of talent we’ve had in some time, but it is obviously still not enough.

The only way this deal makes sense is if ownership is committed to keeping at least Holliday, if not both guys. They will also either need to keep Burrell or bring in another outfielder who will give us at least comparable, if not better, production. While we’re at it, they’ll need to keep Howard as well. Otherwise, we are just spinning our wheels by bringing in one guy to replace another one we’ve lost, which will keep us good (like we’ve been for the last 7 years), but not good enough.

I don’t see any way around it. Ownership has got to spend to make us a championship caliber club. They can decide to keep Burrell, or Howard, or Hamels,(or Holliday, or Fuentes), or all of them. They could have decided to keep Rowand. They can go get Sabathia, or Sheets, or any other major free agent in the off season. For the purposes of this discussion, the particulars don’t matter. What truly matters is that ownership is committed to adding to the talent we have, rather than merely replacing the talent we lose. Only then will we be able to take the next step.

I’ll start out by saying I’m split in my decision so I’ll answer the question this way.

Yes- assuming I was the GM and i got a guarantee that they would raise payroll enough to resign Burrell to a 1-2 year deal AND make a serious attempt at Sabathia or Sheets. The argument for this scenario is that this core probably only has 3 years together anyway including this year so why not take a real serious shot in the next 2. If all of this happened the payroll would have to be in the $130-150 mil range for 2 years which I doubt would happen with this group.

Assuming ownership wouldn’t go for the above option my answer is no. The argument being that Holliday would essentially replace Burrell and Victorino. And even with this move I’m not sure this team is a favorite unless they get Holliday AND at least a #2 starter if not an ace.

So my final answer would be no but doesn’t it make you wonder about what a parade is like to think of this team WITH Holliday and Sabathia.

No way. I agree that this trade would hurt the long term potential of the Phillies. Don’t get me wrong I think the world of Holiday and Fuentes would be a nice compliment.

I would rather see the organization bring up Carlos Carrasco to fill out the rotation and place Myers as the go to guy in a set up role for Lidge.

We would benefit now and still keep the team intact.

I’m going to go a bit off topic here and try to get some things out there about the general state of the team. It’s semi-related because, if we were hitting like last year, there would be no need to even consider something like the Holliday deal.

At the risk of being labeled a Negadelphian or accused of not appreciating what we have, I’ve got to get a few things that are bothering me off my chest.

I realize the baseball season is a marathon, not a sprint, and you can’t play all 162 like your life depends on it. However, it’s getting late for the “we have time, we’ll turn it around” attitude. Frankly, I’m beyond tired of hearing it, especially after yesterday’s game. There have been several games this year where I’ve had the sense that the game would just go on and on until the other team scored and won it.

It’s really the lack of execution that is killing me. The groundballs to third, coupled with Howard’s baserunning on Saturday. Rollins not scoring from first on Victorino’s double in the 7th yesterday. What was that by the way? Why was Rollins jogging for 6 to 8 steps until he picked up the ball? The only possible explanation is that he forgot that there were two outs, and that’s not good. With two outs, you are running all out at the crack of the bat, period. You do not need to pick up the ball. That is the third base coach’s job. Rollins’ job is to run hard and pick up the third base coach. He will tell you what to do. Ridiculous. Howard’s throw to second base is another issue. We have a guy dead to rights and he can’t make the play. For a second, I actually thought to myself, “at least he didn’t throw it into left field”. The fact that I was less upset about the play because of that disturbs me. I was glad to read Manuel’s quote today, “We hit enough. We talk enough [about situational hitting]. We’ve got to get it done. A lot of it is me. It’s up to me to make us try to get it done. “Accountability is fine, but if you don’t execute, something’s wrong.” Uh, ya think? Fairly or not, we cannot have this kind of play from guys like Rollins or Howard (or Utley for that matter). These guys should be singled out specifically because they are our nucleus, our team leaders, our MVP caliber players. If you can’t expect(or get) a high level of play from them, then from whom can you expect it? They must make the plays. They must lead by example. They must set the tone for the entire team. If they do not, we are lost.

Concerning Manuel, he has got to stop taking Burrell out in the late innings of every game, especially since he will not use Taguchi at all. I guess Burrell can’t take it anymore either, which I think is a good thing. I don’t blame Manuel for not using Taguchi. I wouldn’t either. The problem with that is, now Manuel is using our backup middle infielder as a late inning defensive replacement for Burrell on a regular basis. On top of that, he is breaking the unwritten rule of keeping your second catcher on the bench in case of emergency. Taguchi is so bad that Manuel would rather pinch hit with his second catcher and risk having to use Werth as an emergency catcher, than use Taguchi. This cannot continue. Release Taguchi and put somebody on the bench that Manuel can use for something.

The toughest part of this whole thing is that I just don’t know where to go with this. The easiest thing is to replace Manuel and the coaching staff, but I don’t know that they would play any better for somebody else. I just get the sense that these guys are who they are and they will continue to play the way they play, regardless of who is at the helm. I don’t like that very much, but I can’t see trading guys like Rollins or Howard just to shake things up being the answer either. Gillick may tinker around the edges, but I don’t see him fooling with the core. That’s what it all comes down to anyway. We are only going to go as far as our core players take us, so I guess there’s nothing left but to keep the faith that they will turn it around and get hot down the stretch.

The Phillies should make the trade for Holliday. The reason is quite simple: the team’s top players—-Rollins, Howard, Utley, etc.— are all pushing 30 years of age. The window for this group winning a world championship will not remain open much longer. Furthermore, all this talk about not wanting to forfeit the future by depleting our farm system is silly—-the Phillies have won only one championship in 127 years! Let’s try and win one now. What are we waiting for? No one knows if the Phillies’ prospects will ever even make it in the big leagues. Besides, if our farm system is that thin that it will fall apart if we trade a couple of prospects, then it needs to be overhauled anyway. Meanwhile, lets give the fans a break and spend some more money and win a championship. Philly is the fifth largest basbeall market in North America, yet our team payroll isn’t even in the top ten. Montgomery and Gillick have lots of people hoodwinked. Holliday would give the Phils the best lineup in baseball and Fuentes is a top-of-the-line lefty reliever who would take some of the load off of Romero’s back. If we are to fight for a pennant and compete in the playoffs and World Series, another premier reliever is absolutely necessary. Victorino is a favorite of mine too, but no team can afford to pass up an opportunity to obtain a hitter like Holiday—he hits with power AND is a lifetime 320 hitter. Let’s win a championship and go bigtime like big market cities are supposed to do.

how many knocks on the head do ppl have to get in order not to contemplate bonehead deals like this. forget what u are getting, look at what u are losing and whether you can live without that: best outfielder with ridiculous range and an arm that saves you 0.5 runs per game (am i wrong) this guy sniffs out outfielder splitting doubles and turns them into outs, #1 propect pitcher???, stud catcher when ruiz seems to be not so hot and coste is 35, first mildly-proven LEFT handed farm hand ( have you forgotten madson, floyd and franklin’s woes). whaddyu get a whole lotta hitting. hitting is ephemeral, comes and goes, at best we’d be the tigers. why do u think all star games are dominated by pitchers huh?
meen guys.

The only thing about Holliday’s home/road splits is that he’d be going fromo Colorado to PHILLY. I’m pretty sure our home splits are pretty favorable in terms of slg and hr numbers.

That said, I do think Holliday is a bit overrated b/c of his colorado advantage. But I don’t think it’d hurt us all that much (at least when he’s in philly). That left field bleachers section is pretty close to home plate.

PETE: You have defended the Phillies, with regard to their spending and what they have available for payroll, a couple times now. I understand that each team’s financial situation is different. Each team brings in different amounts of revenue and has their own budgetary constraints, limiting what they can spend on payroll. I just don’t believe the Phillies(or many other teams for that matter) are at their limit.

I believe that I have mentioned Andrew Zimbalist here before. He is a professor of economics at Smith College and has written several books about baseball economics. I am going to make a few counter points to your counter points using Zimbalist’s book, “May The Best Team Win”.

Payrolls don’t win championships, scouting does:
This is the “It’s not the money, it’s the management” argument. Scouting certainly does matter, but if it matters so much, why don’t the Yankees move heaven and earth to get Billy Beane? Then they can cut their payroll in half (which would still be more than the Phillies’ payroll). That’s good baseball and good business, right? I’m sure the Steinbrenners would love to keep another $100 million in their pockets. According to Zimbalist, Beane wanted to sign Ben Sheets, but he didn’t have the money, so he chose Barry Zito instead. Zito certainly worked out for the A’s, but he wasn’t their first choice. If Beane had the money, he would have spent it. Scouting is only half the story. The only way moneyball truly works is when you add the money and the scouting together. Bill James is in Boston AND they are spending money. That’s why they are successful. Zimbalist goes on to say that, since the mid-1990s, the relationship between payroll size and the likelihood of on-field success is direct, dramatic, and undeniable. It’s not that a low payroll team can never succeed or that a high payroll team can never fail. What he says is that the opportunities for success are very significantly diminished by a smaller payroll, especially over the long term. Now, I’m not saying that we are a low payroll team, but you’ve got to admit that for a big market team(which we are) with a new stadium, we act like we’re on a small market budget. I would say we are on the fence. We spend enough to be good, but not enough to be great. If I were a cynic, I would say that this suits the owners just fine. As long as we stay competitive, attendance stays up, merchandise sells, and business is good. They are selling us hope. It’s like the law of diminishing returns. You know, where you can get a B by studying for 1 hour, but you need to study for 6 hours to get an A. It’s not worth all that extra effort, so you put in 1 hour and take the B. I see ownership as being happy with a B.

As far as revenues, Zimbalist has this to say: “The owners of baseball teams do not treat their teams as stand-alone profit centers; rather, each team is a cog in the larger corporate machine or investment portfolio, used to maximize the long-term profits of the larger entity.” The players produce profits for the owners both on and off the ball field. A specific example for us is that the Phillies are part owners of Comcast Sportsnet. The Phillies can overpay Comcast to broadcast the games. This increases expenses on the baseball side, which eats into the baseball revenue. Teams either own or are part owners in all kinds of related companies(like concessions, for example), which they use to drain funds away from the baseball operation. They can then show a loss on the baseball side, but in reality they are just taking money out of one pocket and putting it in another. You see underreporting revenue is advantageous in baseball because of revenue sharing. Less revenue means less sharing. No revenue means no sharing. It’s not that teams are losing money, it’s that they are REPORTING that they are losing money. It’s all paper tricks and accounting sleight of hand.

As far as the owners, here’s my take. All of these individuals have been very successful in businesses outside of baseball. Am I supposed to believe that they have lost every shred of business acumen the minute they became the owner of a baseball team? We know beyond all doubt that businesses(especially major corporations) employ accountants whose sole job is to find ways to hide money, under report revenue, over report expenses, decrease the tax burden, etc… Am I supposed to believe baseball is any different? Also, when is the last time you saw a baseball team sell for less than the previous owners paid for it? How about for the same amount? No, franchise prices continue to skyrocket. Why is that? If all these teams over spend on payroll and continually lose money, why would any shrewd businessman buy in? You know why. Because the money is there, it’s just hidden from us.

I’m not trying to go all Oliver Stone here, but come on. It’s kind of like when you buy a new car and the salesman tells you what a great deal you just got because they only made $100 on the sale. Do you believe that? Baseball is the same way. The money is there. I’m not saying that the Phillies can go out and spend $200 million on payroll.(Although we will never know because I’m sure the accounting is very well done and kept out of sight.) What I am saying is that I’m sure that there is more money there than what they are spending.

@bski
Finally someone else who’s fed up with Taguchi. This guy must go. Of all the top prospects in our organiztion, Golson is the guy I’d be most willing to deal…but he’d also be the first I’d promote, since I think he could be a much better pinch runner/defensive replacement than Taguchi.

And about 3 hours after that Taguchi gets a huge pinch hit to help us get our biggest win of the year.