I was at the Park tonight, and when the Marlins had the bases loaded in the first, I was trying to get Charlie’s attention and let him know it was time to cut the cord on Brett Myers. He was done. He was throwing 88mph straight fastballs, his ERA was about to go over 6.00. Send him to the bullpen, put Chad Durbin in the rotation and just end our suffering. 55-year old Luis Gonzalez backed me up with a 2-run basehit to right field. Surely Myers was done now. He had to be. He left the inning to a sarcastic cheer from the crowd, and I would have completely supported the manager if he didn’t return in the second. Then, somehow, this…
7 IP, 3 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 11 K
I was sitting 8 rows off the field and let me tell you, Myers was absolutely unhittable. I’ve never seen a tranformation like that before. He went from a BP tosser in the first inning to Roger Clemens all juiced out on steroids for the next 7. If this is the start that turns around his year – we won’t just win the division, we’ll win it by a landslide. (Please note that if I could have made the word “if” in that last sentance 250-pt font, I would have).
But truth be told, Myers miraculous performance was almost moot after the 2nd inning. Why? Because our offense is absolutely, completely, off-the-charts ridiculous. 60 runs in 5 games, all wins. Leading the majors in HR, 5 players on pace for 80+ RBI, Howard on pace for 43 HR, 120 RBI and Utley on pace for 53 HR, 140 RBI, Burrell on pace for 40 HR, 100 RBI, Rollins hitting .310 in front of these guys, etc, etc, etc…
We keep watching the Phillies pile up runs and say ‘save some for next game’ because the teams of the past so often would win 13-1 one day and lose 1-0 the next. Not this team. They are very consistent with their offense, and they very well could be like the Yankees teams of the past couple years that would just will themselves to the playoffs with fifty 8-7 victories.
So why is this game important?
- It put us solely into first place, and gives us a great chance to clinch the series victory with Hamels pitching tomorrow.
- It kept the Marlins reeling. They are playing over their head right now, and this is their 3rd straight loss and they are out of first for the first time all season. If Hamels shuts them down tomorrow (or if they lose Ramirez), they could hit a slide.
- It was the first real big game of the year for the Phillies, and they delivered in front of a sell-out crowd. Aside from the great run down the stretch, this was a game that the Phillies would often lose and kill their momentum in the past. I believe that their run last year gave them the confidence to win this type of game, especially after going down 3-0 (again) in the first.
- Each of our 4 non-Hamels starters have now had decent starts this week. With our offense, we only need them to be decent.
- Last year at this time we were 28-28. This year we are 32-24. We are a notorious warm-weather team and it hasn’t even warmed up yet.
- Philly baseball is back. This is not because of just tonight obviously, but I really realized it when I was down there. I worked at the Phillies in 2005 and 2006 and there is NO WAY we were selling out a Friday night game in May against the Marlins, no matter how good they are. This year we are 4th in the league in attendance (based on % of the stadium that is full) behind only the Red Sox, Cubs and Tigers.
Let’s win tomorrow and stay atop the division till we put another flag in our outfield.
Nice writing style. Looking forward to reading more from you.
Chris Moran
PETE: Lots of reasons for optimism. Hopefully Myers is coming around. Eaton, of all people, has had two consecutive decent starts. Kendrick appears to have settled in. As you said, if we can get consistently decent starts we should start piling up wins because our offense is scary good.
Rollins and Victorino are healthy and productive. Utley seems to have come out of his May funk. Howard has been more consistent. Jenkins and Feliz have finally come around. Our starting lineup is productive top to bottom. The only one still struggling is Burrell.
The reason I think the offense has been able to sustain this mashing is the bench. We are getting great production out of Coste, Dobbs, Werth, even Bruntlett whenever they are called upon so we don’t lose much at all when a starter gets a day off. The bench guys just step in and keep on raking.
A lot of credit has to go to Manuel. He is obviously keeping the guys loose and prepared. It seems like he is almost always making the right move at the right time.
More of the same in yesterday’s victory. Contributions from everybody up and down the lineup. The guys are making Manuel look like a genius. Pinch hit for Taguchi in the 6th…bang, game tying 2 run hr from Jenkins. They have really come together and are a “solid” team. They seem to really enjoy playing for Manuel and with each other. They believe in each other. They trust each other. It is a lot of fun to watch. Hopefully we’ll see five more months of this type of baseball. That ought to get the job done.
This is really something. The Phils keep winning. Utley keeps homering. The bullpen keeps pitching. I’m the only one talking.
The project is done… I’m back!
Can’t wait for tonight’s game, won’t miss any of Utley’s at-bats, that’s for sure! Watch me jinx them tonight!
bski, I like to look at stretches of games, rather than individual games in baseball (not that you do). I’ll tell you what I like about this team – they don’t have prolonged stretches of bad ball. They always avoid getting swept, and they seem to never lose 2 series in a row. I don’t know about you, but that reminds me of that 93 team! I think the players are totally different, we can’t say this player is the Dykstra, and this guy’s the Daulton.
And who created this roster? I still don’t think you’re giving Gillick enough credit – would you rather have Omar Minaya?
By the way, bookstores don’t seem to have Bill James books.
SIXERZGUY: The Phils have been playing consistently well for a little while now. I’m starting to get jazzed about them because they’ve put it together so soon. Each of the last few years they really haven’t gotten on a roll until after the all-star break. They have been able to win consistently because they are getting production up and down the lineup. In April, all we had were Utley and Burrell. Now Howard, Rollins, and Victorino are back. Feliz and Jenkins have come around. The bench is really something. It seems like every time we pinch hit, something good happens. Also, whenever one of them gets a spot start, they produce. If this is our usual second half run but we’ve started it in May, look out. We could really have some kind of year.
I will give Gillick more credit but he’s still got to share it equally with Manuel. It just seems like Charlie is making all the right moves at the right times.
Just go to Amazon.com and you’ll find all of Bill James’ stuff. There’s not that much. The Historical Abstract, which came out a few years ago is good. This is where he introduces Win Shares. Then, of course, there’s Win Shares itself. He doesn’t put much out. There are a couple collaborations with Rob Neyer as well.
Sixerzguy here are a few Bill James Baseball Books
Maybe you can find what you are looking for there.
I can’t believe it. This is 3 straight good starts for Eaton. Not only that, but each one is getting better. Other than that, it’s more of the same. Burrell goes 1 for 4 but it was a big one. Another pinch hit for Dobbs. The bullpen gets the job done again. Keep ‘em comin’ boys. We can really make some hay and get some separation while our division rivals are struggling.
bski, I think the dynamic of this season will be different from past seasons’. My bold prediction: we’ll get out to a decent NL East lead, but the other teams will take turns making runs at us.
About those 2nd half rolls we went on before, I only have one theory – these guys play better when there’s no pressure on them. I think you saw that earlier this year, when we lost to the Mets a lot; I think they were thinking they were SUPPOSED TO beat the Mets. I wanna see them take 3 out of 4 from the Mets during the 4th of July series – that would show me they’ve gotten over that “pressure” hump (assuming there is a hump).
SIXERZGUY: The main thing I want to continue seeing is consistency. I hate to sound cliche, but I’ll give you two:
1) Slow and steady wins the race. I realize blazing hot and blowing everyone’s doors off also wins the race but I’m being realistic here. I love to see the hot streaks as much as anybody, but I feel it is more important to eliminate the cold spells. Over the last several years we’ve had a few 9-1 homestands and such. They usually seem to occur just before the all-star break for whatever reason. I seem to recall a ridiculous 12-1 homestand, possibly in 2003. Maybe Pete can back me up on this. Anyway, these are great but we always have some really bad stretches as well. My family and I were at the last game of a 10 game homestand in August 2004, a Thursday afternoon game against the Astros. The Phils got out to a good lead early. Todd Pratt grounds into a triple play to third with the bases loaded and no outs. The Astros have a huge inning and score a bunch of runs late. The Phils collapse and finish the homestand 1-9, effectively knocking them out of the wildcard race. Every year we’ve come up short recently you can point to at least one horrific stretch that just killed us. The good thing is that this year’s club hasn’t shown any signs that we’re in for anything like that.
2) Each game counts the same. Every game you win in April and May is one less you need to win in August and September. We know this all to well. We’ve consistently played terrific ball after the all-star break in each of the last few seasons. Other than last year(in which we received a lot of help from the Mets) however, we’ve always come up short. It is very difficult to dig yourself out of a big, early season hole. Had we won a few more games early on, or even picked it up before mid-July, it most likely would have been a different story.
You are right, the dynamic of this season is already different. I hope you’re right about us getting out to a good lead because I think this team has what it takes to hold everybody else off. Back in ’93, we got off to a great start, something like 34-14 through April and May, and then played a little over .500 the rest of the way. If memory serves, we held off a charge from the Cardinals by sweeping them at home at the end of July, effectively knocking them out. Next we fought off the Expos at the end of August. We were never really challenged in September. It was more a matter of when, not if, we would clinch the division. I could certainly go for a repeat of that this year.
SIXERZGUY: A couple weeks ago you brought an upcoming article in Philadelphia Magazine about the Phillies’ owners to my attention. I just read it. Here’s the link if you’re interested: http://www.phillymag.com/articles/the_phantom_five/page1
bski, thanks for the link, I sat down at my local Barnes and Noble and read that piece.
I’ll tell you one bad thing about having a good (baseball) team – there’s not much to complain about. Last night’s loss didn’t bother me at all, I’m sure we’ll get this guy one day, just like how we finally got to Zambrano this year (I want the cubs in the playoffs, knock on wood).
But I was thinking, do you have any ideas for Pau Gasol-type trades for the Phils out there, a trade that would take us to that level where we’d be a favorite to win it all? I’ve already told you my Griffey idea. And I really wanted Scott Kazmir from the Rays, but with their newfound success, I don’t think that’s available anymore.
SIXERZGUY:
You’re right there’s not much to complain about. I was just saying that very thing to my older son earlier today. I was talking about the fans booing Tom Gordon a few days ago for giving up a couple runs. I felt it was absolutely ridiculous and way out of line. He had a bad night. He gave up a few hits and a couple runs. He didn’t cost us the game or anything. It’s absurd to expect every player to be perfect every night. We know that everyone is going to have a bad night here and there and, if that’s all it is, they deserve the benefit of the doubt and our support.
The main thing with me is that the benefit of the doubt has to be EARNED by the player through consistent performance. Take Greg Dobbs, for example. He is really getting the job done as a pinch hitter. If he doesn’t get the job done once in a while, there’s no way he should be booed. I get ticked off at players who expect unconditional support. If Dobbs only got 1 pinch hit for every 10 at bats, I certainly won’t be jumping up and down for that one hit. You’ve got to give me more than that for me to get behind you.
As far as any Pau Gasol type stuff out there for the Phils, I don’t see it.
First of all, I don’t know that the Phils are even looking to deal for a position player. There’s really nowhere to put anyone right now. A pitcher, well everyone is always looking for a pitcher but who is out there and what do they want in return. There are always a few guys out there at the trade deadline offered by teams who are out of the race, but many times the asking price is too high. I can’t see the Phils giving up much for help. We’re not going to be giving up any minor league pitchers because Moyer and Gordon can’t go forever and Eaton can’t leave soon enough. We’re counting on some of our young pitchers developing and helping us. Also, such a big deal is being made about this year’s draft because we need to restock our farm system, so I can’t see us depleting it by picking up a guy we might not really need.
On top of that, you need to consider where we are. We’re playing very well. Myers seems to be coming around and even Eaton has pitched better. The bullpen has been lights out. The bench has been clutch. There’s not really any room to add anybody.
Don’t get me wrong, I’d love to be loaded to the gills but, unless the Padres do a repeat of 1993 and dismantle their entire team, the chances of a Fred McGriff (major impact player falling in our lap for next to nothing) is pretty slim.
bski, I was “researching” possible trades we could do for stud guys by looking at some league leaders lists for both pitching and hitting, but there are very few good-player-on-a-bad-team type of guys that are better than what we have. Also, lots of teams seem to be in it early on.
But with trading guys, I have the same philosopy that I do with basketball – trade guys when they’re playing well, when their value is at their highest, IF another team is willing to overpay for that guy. Ideally, the guy you trade for upgrades your team, and you get rid of a guy playing well just before his production starts to decline.
For the Sixers, I think this is Sam – I think he’s worth a TON right now and if we put him out there I think we’d get a ridiculous offer or two. For the Phils, I this could be a couple of players, like Greg Dobbs, Bret Myers, Adam Eaton.
But unlike the Sixers, I think the Phils have tremendous team chemistry – you must’ve loved it how Pat Burrell won us that one game right after you mentioned how everyone was playing well except for him! I would be very careful adding and subtracting to this team. That little list I made above should include Chris Coste, but he seems like such an important part of their chemistry that his value goes past his numbers, and getting rid of him would be a huge mistake. These guys are playing with a purpose this year, it’s too bad they have fans like the ones posting on Zo Zone…
SIXERZGUY: I was thrilled that Burrell came through with that hit. I didn’t say he wasn’t playing well. I said he was struggling. All I meant was that the offense has been so potent and consistent lately because everyone in the lineup has picked it up. Burrell was just lagging behind a bit. Even though he has been going 1 for 4 lately, his 1 is usually an important one.
As far as trades, I don’t know. I mean, sure, you’ve always got to have your eyes and ears open for any improvement, but I don’t see much happening. Like I said before, where are we looking to improve? The lineup is solid. The bench is fantastic. The bullpen is outstanding. That leaves the rotation. While it would be great to upgrade there, the cost is very high. Just think back over the last few years. Teams were trying to outbid each other for Kris Benson, Sidney Ponson, and other mediocre pitchers that were supposedly going to somehow put them over the top. Looking at it that way, we’d be better off just giving either Durbin or Happ a shot.
Like I said in my last post, we are trying to build up our farm system so, unless it’s clearly a no-brainer upgrade, I don’t see us depleting it by taking a flier at a run of the mill guy who might possibly help us. With that in mind, our best candidate to involve in a trade would be Burrell. Since his contract is up at the end of the year and he will most likely walk, it would be nice to get something now. I don’t really see moving any of the bench guys. The chemistry you mentioned is a big part of my thinking, as is their productivity. Also, moving a bench guy is not going to get us much. Think back to 2004. We had Ricky Ledee who, at the time, was among the best pinch hitters in the league and a valuable piece off the bench as a spot starter. He was much like Dobbs is now. Well, we were desperate for bullpen help so we dealt him to the Giants for Felix Rodriguez. Even though he pitched well for us, we only had him for the remainder of 2004. Very short term help that we don’t necessarily need now.
You’re right about the Zo Zone. It makes me concerned about what type of fans we have. Most of them are chuckleheads over there. There are a couple you can actually converse with, a couple who are just semi-blind homers, and the rest who just want to complain about the salaries and dump guys after any poor performance. I much prefer it here where I can have a good back and forth, so please don’t leave me.
I’m going to throw another post in here because if we can continue playing like this nobody has a chance of knocking us out of first place. Atlanta was 25-8 at home and hadn’t lost consecutive games there and we go in and sweep them. I think the way we swept them was really something. All the games were tight, the starters hung tough, then the bullpen shut them down, which gave the offense the time it needed to put the games away. I’m more impressed that we won like that than if we had just pounded the ball and scored 10 runs each night.
Another big thing is that these are games in our division. We are now 5-1 against Atlanta. Hopefully we can stay on this roll and knock the Marlins further back next. What we are doing right now is special. I’m going to sit back, enjoy it, and hope it lasts a long time.
bski, here’s a challenge for you, I don’t think you’ll be able to knock it out in one post, and I wanna contribute, too:
How did Gillick put this team together? What is “Gillick-ball”? Are there similarities between the playoff teams he put together in Toronto, Seattle, Baltimore and here? I’ll tell you one thing all those AL teams have in common – all those teams went into a decline after he left…
You could even answer that with: “I don’t think there is a ‘Gillick-ball’ approach.”
I feel like we should construct some sort of Gillick manifesto and leave it for Amaro.
SIXERZGUY: That is a challenge. Since I’m an NL guy, I never closely followed specific moves Gillick made with his AL teams. I’m going to go in search of “Gillickball”.
Just thinking about it a little bit last night, here are my first cracks at it:
- His teams scored lots of runs.
- He went for home run hitters.
- He shied away from “payday” guys, both hitters and pitchers.
- The Adam Eaton signing was very unlike him; those 3 AL teams had no one like him on the roster.
- If he couldn’t find that one guy for a position, he went with a very strong platoon; he was able to find talented guys who were willing to platoon.
Some questions (that I asked myself) I couldn’t answer: for the Jim Thome trade, why Aaron Rowand? I was thinking he did it for Aaron’s character, but Gillick also went after Albert Belle. Why did he choose a platoon of good young players over a solid player in Abreu? Is that platoon necessary for roster and payroll flexibility? Why Abreu, not Burrell?
SIXERZGUY: I will now begin to address the challenge of determining the existence of “Gillickball” and identifying it’s tenets.
Before we embark on this exploration, a few caveats:
1) Remember, you asked for this.
2) This will most likely take several posts, as I am frequently interrupted both at work and at home. In that case we may need to continue this under the next baseball topic posted on the site.
3) I am picking when Gillick became the general manager of the Blue Jays as a starting point, which means we are talking about a 30 year body of work. That covers a lot of ground.
4) I will do my best to distill my voluminous, meandering thoughts on the subject into a cogent, semi-concise discussion.
5) Lastly, I offer my thanks to our hosts on this blog for their patient indulgence.
At the risk of letting the air out of the balloon so soon, I will say that I don’t think “Gillickball” as a system of building a baseball team really exists. Looking back over the last 30 years, I feel I’ve discovered a common thread but it’s really nothing that can be taught or copied. Believe me, I wish it did exist and that, as you said, he could pass it on to Amaro. I’m not looking forward to the day when Amaro takes over. I have nothing against him specifically, it’s just that I don’t want the ballclub to pay the price for the organization’s unfailing loyalty. I’m not saying that Ed Wade’s tenure was a failure, only that Gillick, with a fresh pair of outsider’s eyes, was able to take us beyond Wade’s limits. I just can’t shake the feeling that by going with Amaro we’d be taking a step backwards again. He has interviewed for other GM jobs over the last few years and hasn’t gotten any, right? Maybe there’s something to that.
I found a detailed bio of Gillick’s career including a list of draft picks, trades, and significant free agent signings at http://www.baseball-reference.com/bullpen/Pat_Gillick. After looking it over, I don’t see anything revolutionary about his approach. He does what everybody else does, he just does it a little better. For as stupid as that sounds, I think it’s true.
Without listing all the specifics, I’ll look at the different areas used to build a team. He did well through the draft for Toronto. The list of draft picks is a who’s who of the best players in franchise history, but that’s how teams were built back then. Free agency just started in the late 70s so everyone built through drafts and trades. He has not done nearly as well with the Orioles, Mariners, and Phillies. He’s had his share of early round busts and late round surprises like everyone else. As far as trades, he’s gotten the better end of many deals, but many others haven’t worked out. He’s had big deal busts and minor deal successes, again, like everyone else. The same goes for free agent pickups. They run the gamut from fantastic to horrible. Plus, we are only talking about the deals he made. We can’t forget the saying that sometimes the best deal is the one you don’t make. It is quite possible he’s also done some good work by not pulling the trigger on occasion.
I truly believe that he has just been a little bit better at doing the same things everyone else does. A little bit better in the draft, a little bit better making(or not making) deals, a little bit better picking up free agents(or parting ways with your own). When you add up all those little bits, it explains why Gillick has been so successful for so long. Doing this has made me realize that I’ve sold Gillick a bit short. I still believe that, for everybody, luck plays a big part in all of this. That being said, it’s got to be more than luck when a guy does what Gillick has done with four different clubs over 30 years.
This seems like a good place to break. We can get up, walk around, stretch our legs, etc…You were right. I can’t finish this in one post. When I come back I will try to explain what I’ve found about Gillick, answer some of the questions you’ve posed, and possibly wrap this thing up.
PETE: You’re welcome to jump in at any time.
bski, thanks for the link. I got ideas from looking at that list, too. Tell you what – it sounds like you’re gonna get to the meat of “Gillickball”, so I’ll wait for that and then disagree or add to it. But take your time, no rush.
One thing that’s very obvious from the list – some of his big successes were a result of him going for the same players over and over again, that’s gotta be one tenet of Gillickball – STICK TO WHAT YOU KNOW… Like Jayson Werth – I did NOT know he was a Gillick draftee – cool!
SIXERZGUY: You got it. The main tenet of “Gillickball” is: Stick With Who You Know! It jumped out at me right away. As soon as you look at what he did with the Orioles, there it is. He signed Roberto Alomar, Jimmy Key, and Joe Carter as free agents and he traded for David Wells and Juan Guzman. He had every one of them in Toronto. With the Mariners the only name that caught my eye was John Olerud, another guy from Toronto. So far with us he’s brought over Werth from Baltimore and Moyer, Garcia and Dobbs from Seattle. Obviously he’s not building an entire team with these guys, but he keeps going back to the same well when he needs to add a piece here and there. For our sake I hope his retirement is permanent. If he becomes the GM of another team he’ll be looking to raid our cupboard to stock his new team. So, that’s his trick. He’s certainly hasn’t come up with any bold or creative new way of building a team.
You said before you were trying to figure out some of his trades. Why Rowand for Thome, why Abreu and not Burrell, and such? There really isn’t much to figure out. I don’t think there was or is any overriding plan he’s trying to follow. He’s just making the best deal he can, depending on the circumstances at the time, hoping to improve the ballclub.
Why Rowand for Thome? Chicago obviously had what Gillick felt was the best deal available for Thome. At the end of 2005 we didn’t have a centerfielder. Kenny Lofton wasn’t coming back. The only truly solid outfielder we had was Abreu. Burrell was still dealing with foot injuries and still battling his offensive demons, so we didn’t know if we could count on him. We also had Jason Michaels and Shane Victorino, neither of whom were at the level of an everyday outfielder.
Why Abreu and not Burrell? Abreu had much more value. Like I said before, Abreu had consistently put up “Moneyball” numbers for years. On the other hand, Burrell had awful years in 2003 and 2004. He bounced back in 2005, but I’m sure many wondered if he would be able to continue it or if he would fall again. Also, he had those foot problems so I’m sure his questionable health scared people off as well. Why trade Abreu for prospects? In was a salary dump plain and simple. Both Abreu and Burrell had big contracts and the team was looking to free up some money. The best offer they got was for Abreu, so off he went.
So, I’m left with what I said in the previous post. There really isn’t a system we can call “Gillickball”. You can call the way he goes about his business “Gillickball” if you want, but it’s not very different from what most other GMs do and I don’t think it really can be copied or handed down. He uses his knowledge, instincts, and insights just like everybody else, except his are a little better than most, allowing him to enjoy more success than most of his counterparts.