March 2, 2015

How many games will the Phillies win in 2011?

Just a simple poll I will leave up for the next couple weeks.

Just to clarify, how many WILL they win, not SHOULD they win.

How many games will the Phillies win in 2011?

View Results

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Also, don’t forget to vote for us in the Sweet 16 for thePhield…

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  1. adam says:

    What does it say about the Phillies if 3/5 of their bench spots are guys who were on the 2009 Mets roster?

    • Pete says:

      I don’t think Castillo will be around for very long…

      Who is the 3rd besides Schneider? Was Valdez over there?

      • Adam B says:


        • adam says:

          I like this new comment format.  Those are the three.  Is our coaching that much better?  Clubhouse?  Not that Schneider did much more for us than them.  But Valdez certainly had a much better season for the Phils.

          • All credit to Wilson Valdez for his contributions last year, but let’s not forget, he was designated for assignment at least once, and I seem to think twice.  So his contributions from last year, and forseen value for this year are in part due to baseball gods intervention.  The one time he was DFA’d for sure lasted aboyut a half day, I think when Plac went down.

            That’s an absolute cesspool up there in NY.  I mean, I just “know” what I read, but it’s hard to imagine guys focussing and playing relaxed and happy.  It’s gotta be tough for Castillo to relax in the next week knowing he has so little time to prove himself, but I’d think our atmospherfe compared to theirs provides some level of breath of fresh air.

  2. Leave it to Baez to make things interesting. 

    I’d be interested in the logic anyone might care to share in their determination of their vote in the poll.

    My reasoning behind voting 95-100 is this.  When we got Cliff, I immediately started thinkinbg we’d win around 100.  A lot has happened since, not a lot of it positive.  And Utley’s loss is monumental, particularly in compound off the offensive and defensive loss of Werth.

    But my thinking remains constant because it’s just a matter of winning differently.  Health is relatively important with the pitchers, both starters and bullpen.  The word relatively is inserted intentionally.  The offense definitely needs to play more small ball, but the century mark is attainable klargely if we keep playing the good defense we have in recent years.  I see that as the major question as to nearing 100.  We’ve slipped, no matter what in defensive ability in right field, and in our 4th outfielder, whoever it is.  Valdez, defensively, is a pretty good fill in for Chase, but not as good.  Raul, a year older isn’t getting better.

    We’ll struggle against lefties quite a bit.  So we’ll win 2-1, instead of 7-5.  A win is a win is a win, i the defense doesn’t make our starters throw 4 outs in too manyt innings.  No pitcher thrives on 4 out innings.

    Additionally, we’ll beat the clubs we’re supposed to.  One of the contenders might make us look bad in an occasional series, but we’re winning a lot of games, close to 100, and we’re winning the East.

  3. Stacy says:

    I picked 100.  Last year they won 97 and that was with multiple injuries and Kendrick and Moyer as starters.  This year with a hopefully (mostly) healthy line up + full season of Oswalt + Cliff Lee should equal 3 more wins.

  4. So I’m looking at the poll results, and I see somebody voted less than 85 wins.

    Who needs a democracy?

    Please be forewarned that I have a letter in to the Supreme Court asking for a more liberal interpretation of justifiable homicide which will be my defense when some imbicile decide to uphold tradition in 3 years and deprive Maddux of a unanimous  HOF vote.  Hell, if you kill once, why not twice.  The Orenthal Theory.  But these would be justifiable whacks.

    Less than 85?

    For real?

  5. bball says:

    I voted 100-105.  My reasoning is the full season of Oswalt and Lee.  The bulpen should be about as good as last year.  The offense will be a lot less powerful but hopefully not a whole lot less efficient.  If these Phillies are going to succeed and win over a hundred games they will need to play more small ball and I believe they can and will.  Rollins put in the work during the off season and should improve his on base %.  Victorino seems willing to lay down a bunt when he wouldn’t in the past and Charlie seems more inclined to hit and run/move the runner over.  I’m believing this because Charlie told Shane to bunt more.  If they can manufacture runs like the Giants did last year than there is no reason they can’t have the same result.

  6. I’m detecting a chain of roster moves by the Giants that may indirectly affect the Phils, and definitely effect 2 ex-Phils.  A San Jose Mercury News report suggests the Giants are pretty close to trading Nick Schuerholz.  There goes Pat Burrell’s caddy.  I believe that will tie directly to the intention to award the first base job to rookie Brandon Belt, shifting Aubrey Huff to left field.  That should mean Burrell getting released, and I’d imagine Aaron Rowand sticks around as a reserve, meaning even if it was just the fans speulating, Rowand woudn’t be available to sign. 

    I’m guessing that if this plot unfolds, which it may not, Pat is going to have a hard time landing a job.  If we needed a pinch hitter, a la Stairs, maybe RAJ would think about it, but Charlie seems to be in love with multiple position guys, and there isn’t one position Pat can play, and who knows if he can pinch hit.  One thing for sure.  You have a better chane of seeing me play in an AL game tis year than Pat.

    Between Posey and Belt, whatever part of the year he comes on, that’s a nice 1-2 youth core the Giants will add in consecutive years.  Nice supplement to their pitching staff for a continuation of contender status for the forseeable future. 

  7. Speaking of our win total, Prediction has played the 2011 season out 50,000 times, and our average win total was 95.8.  The high total on our best play was 116 wins.  The low total was 84 wins.

    Here are all the numbers.

  8. Phillyfan says:

    I went with 110+.  116 seems about right, based on that simulation Ken posted.  However, my simulation gets us to 119 after 50,001 runs.  I can’t see them winning over 120 now with the Chase situation.  There really aren’t alot of concerns with this team, even with Chase and Brown out and Lidge a question mark. Yes, I do expect him to tbe off and on the DL with knee and arm issues. For most teams that might spell disaster, but I really think they will jump out to something like a 45-13 record, cruise through the middle months, and then finish like they started.

  9. Phillyfan says:

    I am still trying to figure out how the Giants have a “vastly improved” offense.  Sticking a rookie at first base and having your all-star catcher gasping by the end of August (first full year of catching) doesn’t seem like a recipe for a vastly improved offense.  Did they add Pujols, Braun, or Gonzalez while I wasn’t watching?  There still is not a single player on that team other than perhaps Posey that I think “offense” when I hear their name. 

    • Not sure what source yiou’re quoting with “vastly improved”, but I do think it’s pretty representative.  It’s reasobnable to expect Pablo to be a force after dropping 40 pounds, and a little unfair to expect Posey to drop off because he faces a full year.  Consider it possible, yes.  Expect it?  I’ll pass.  Tejada should be an asset, though he’s had a miserable spring, and doesn’t figure to do a lot more than offset the loss of Uribe.  Best I can tell, they appear extremely well positioned attitude wise to defend, in part because despite the rings, they keep reading opinions of doubt. 

      • Phillyfan says:

        just cracks me up how for everyone else in considering three possible scenarios (they will be better, the same or worse than last year) we tend to expect the positive (Pablo, Posey, Giants pitchers – they will all get better) to happen but yet for all our players many of which as Pete pointed our had ”worst year of their career” last year, we expect the same or worse than last year.  My theory is that we can’t quite get our heads around the fact the team won an incredible 97 games and very nearly made the WS, amidst a bounch of “the worst years of their career”.  I think we tend to discount the 97 wins because we just can’t wrap our heads around it with all the injuries, worst years of their career, and what not. 

        There is absolutely no reason to think Pablo will “bounce back” any more or less that Howard or Rollins will “bounce back.”  If fact dramatic wieght loss has often led to pooring performance the next year, see Howard and Fielder.  If you are going to assume such for Pablo you have to for others as well.

        • You goota take that dispute up elsewhere.  I have never included Howard in having had a lousy year last year
          A lot of people have, but never me.
          But I can say that Pablo might well be more likely to bounce back than Jimmy.  Jimmy’s 32, Pablo’s 24.  And it’s not like I’m ripping Jimmy.  You wondered why the Giants might be better offensively, and I gave you a very good potential reason.  And he’s had a good spring, setting the tomne for that to the extent it does. 

  10. Phillyfan says:

    I am heading overseas for several week so will miss the start of the season (return April 6).  In that light I want to throw out my preseason picks.  I know you all would be disappointed without them :)


    Phillies: 114 – 48
    Fun Fact: Howard: .298, 44hr, 131 RBI, less than 160ks – flips the bird at ESPN’s fantasy top projected bust based on likely draft position. i.e. worst value

    Brewers: 94 wins

    Rockies: 92 wins

    Wild Card: Braves

    Cy Young: Josh Johnson
    MVP: Howard


    Boston: 97 wins
    Detroit: 92 wins
    Oakland: 89 wins
    Wild Card: Yanks

    Cy Young: King Hernandez

    MVP: Hamilton


    Phils over Detroit: 4 games to 1.

    • That’s good stuff.  Sorry you’ll miss the Opening Day greatness.  You’re a good sport.
      Glad to see somebody remember that Josh was in there last year for the CY and is a worthy mention this year as a contender.

      But you said DETROIT? 

      If we win 17 more games than the Red Sox, I’ll eat the hat you never provided video of you eating for San Diego getting within 5 of the wild card last year.

      Bon Voyage.

  11. Phillyfan says:

    AL East is just too tough for me to go higher with Boston.  I think Balt is the most improved team in the year this year, closely followed by Toronto.  The discepancy between Philly and Boston can mostly be found in the division competition.  Philly gets to play Nats, Mutts, and fish 54 times.  They could be three of the bottom 8 teams in all of baseball this year.  Toronto, Balt and the Rays very well could be in the 10-20 area of the power poll.  Huge difference.

    AL central is very evenly matched.  I could have gone with Sox too and felt OK.

  12. Pete says:

    Gotta actually side with Phillyfan (huh?) on the Giants thing. I doubt their offense will be “vastly” improved, if improved at all. 

    Having Posey for a full year will help a lot. Belt could help, but he’s not a guarantee. Tejada is “meh” to me. Ross for a whole year will help. 

    On the other end, Huff won’t be as good, they lose Uribe who was their 2nd leading RBI guy last year and Andres Torres had kind of fluky year too.

    I think their offense stays just about the same.  Maybe a little better if Panda plays well. 

    On Phillyfan’s other comments, I maintain that I think he must be joking that he thinks we will win that many games.

  13. I still don’t know how vastly got in this conversation.  But it has to be improved.  It SUCKED last year!

    I kinda like Belt’s chances to make a contribution.  Looks like a pretty poised hitter.  Goes withb the pitch nicely.

    Aubrey might not do as well as last year, but he did finish weakly, so it’s not like he had a full fledged career year to match. 

  14. Phillyfan says:

    Can we do alittle before/after bet?

    Will the announcement that Utley will have surgery come before or after opening day?  I say before.

    • I’ll take after.

      And before you gloat, assuming it comes, it still doesn’t mean it would have been right to jump into it.  If medical people thought it best to try rest first, all it will say is the rest just didn’t work.  And besides that, considering that they said the surgery could lead to further complications, which it seems like is always the case, I assume that’s truer in this case than not, and we better hope it doesn’t.

      Tinker Evers Chance = Koppe Mlkmus Hererra

      Rollins Valdez Howard is better!

  15. Phillyfan says:

    I think Utley is pretty much done.  Makes me sad, but that is my gut feel.  If he doesn’t retire I think we are looking at a .280, 18 hm, 75  RBI guy for a couple more years. Not horrible but his star days are gone. Great example guy, professional, etc so he sticks around.  Very possibly contniues to get clutch hits, but no longer a top player that is the core that gets the team to the playoffs.  I just think his body is saying no mas after 14 adult years of playing “crash” baseball.  Unlike Howard or even Rollins, I don’t expect we will ever see the “old” Utley again.

  16. Phillyfan says:

    another very odd thing with the Utley situation is the quote that jumped out to me.  I paraphrase from Utley, “I/we want to be cautious with this because I still have three years on a contract I would like to finish.”  I can’t recall ever hearing a 30ish (or even 40ish?) pro athlete talk that way.  From that I got the sense that he is already focused on life after baseball, completely content with playing till he is 34-35 and walking away.   In some ways I laud him, as he sounds like he has great perspective, has saved his money, and is ready for his next phase of life.  But also makes me think he knows he is breaking down to the point where it doesn’t make sense to continue much longer.  Probabyl reading too much into that quote, but you must admit, a very odd thing to say.

    • I’ve thought ahead like that on Chase as well.  It’s not pleasant to think about.  Should we not even get to see flashes of his greatness and toughness again, I’d feel very deprived. But all we can do is take it one step at a time.

  17. All I can say is Mathieson can’t say he didn’t get a chance this spring.  Walking the bases full is no way to help your cause.

  18. We’re sixth on the latest Forbes list of MLB teams values.  The Mets are ahead by 1 place, but down 13 per cent from a year ago, and we’re up 13 per cent from last season.

  19. joe says:

    Sorry, but I went with 90 to 95.  Line up is worse then last year. Last year, remember, going into Aug/sept, it looked like they playoffs were in doubt.  Went on a late season tear and the braves collapsed.  But what kept us from the series was our offense, and it hasn’t improved.  Nor has the bullpen.  The starters are gonna throw a complete game every day.  Rember, Halladay, Hammels all had double digit loses becouse the team couldnt score.  Who can forget not scoring for what 3 or 4 straight Mets series on beyond) and the stretch of only 1 or 2 runs a game loses. ,  And some of our aces will miss some starts.  And is there any reason to believe for the first time in his career Charlie is gonna play small ball.  Over use the starters, etc.  No evidence supports this.  I think that was the most frustrating thing against the giants, they woudl grind out a run while the phils would wait for the 3 run home run that never happened.  Our line up scares no one.  I know people think J roll will be suddenly under 30 yrs old again, forget Shane was sent here as a reject (love em though).  I honestly wouldnt be surprised if this team doesnt make they playoffs (all it would take is a Howard injury)

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