I know I just did a big prospect update, but right now the MLB club is so un-watchable that I am incapable of writing an entire post about them with going into an expletive-laden rant. What am I supposed to say? They suck right now. All of them. I detailed it in the last series preview and don’t feel like rehashing it, so I’m just going to do an expanded prospect update with an unofficial top-25 (the official one will come at mid-season).
Oh, and I’m only focusing on the positives. See if any of this cheers you up.
Jesse Biddle – The Phillies 1st round pick yesterday is the newest addition to the prospect discussion. I posted full scouting reports in the comments field of the draft post, but here is an abbreviated version. He is a tall LHP with a good fastball at 91-93mph. He has two off-speed pitches (curve and change) that are decent but need refinement. Even though he’s only 18, he’s pretty much filled out, but still has some projectionability (i.e., the potential to throw harder). He is from Germantown Friends and is ecstatic to be a Phillie. His ceiling is probably a #2 starter.
Jon Singleton – It’s not possible to say enough good things about this kid. 18-years old. Hitting .413 through 26 games. OBP of .500. SLG% of .728. 6 HR already. More walks (18) than strikeouts (17). Being compared to Manny Ramirez by scouts. Suddenly a top-50 prospect in baseball and could go higher. It’s early, yes, but Singleton could be special – hopefully he can make the move from 1B to OF or the NL adds a DH in the next collective bargaining agreement.
Anthony Gose – Sometimes when looking at prospects, you forget to keep age in mind whenever you look at their stats. For me, that’s the case with Gose, who is one of only 4 (I believe) teenagers in the Florida State League. Gose has more than held his own though, and in the last couple weeks, he’s really turned it on. In his last 10, Gose is hitting .344 with 8 walks and a 1.031 OPS. Gose’s game is all about speed, so an OPS that high shouldn’t ever be expected, but it’s shouldn’t be dismissed over shorter periods. Despite moving up a level, Gose’s OPS this year is up nearly 100 points over last year, and could continue to climb if he has truly turned a corner.
Brody Colvin – Colvin, the Phillies prized pick in last year’s draft, was horrible, horrible in his first couple starts (23 ER in 22 IP) but since then, he’s really settled down and showed some promise. In 5 of his last 6 starts he’s gone 30.2 IP with only 6 ER (1.76 ERA) and a 28/12 K/BB ratio.
Jiwan James – The much ballyhooed tool-shed (the positive meaning of that word) has come around a bit in the last 10 games, hitting .333 with an .864 OPS. For a lot of the younger guys at Lakewood (James, Castro, Valle, Santana, Hewitt) – it’s time to show some improvement.
Sebastian Valle – Valle is another one that has come around a bit. He has 5 HR in his last 10 games. He, like James, needs an extended hot streak to bring his numbers up to respectability though.
Impromptu Top-25
- Domonic Brown, OF
- Jarred Cosart, RHP
- Jonathan Singleton, 1B
- Anthony Gose, OF
- Brody Colvin, RHP
- Tyson Gillies, OF
- Domingo Santana, OF
- Scott Mathieson, RHP
- Jesse Biddle, LHP
- Trevor May, RHP
- Sebastian Valle, C
- J.C. Ramirez, RHP
- Phillippe Aumont, RHP
- Jonathan Villar, SS
- Mike Schwimer, RHP
- Austin Hyatt, RHP
- Nick Hernandez, LHP
- John Mayberry, OF
- Leandro Castro, OF
- Jesus Sanchez, RHP
- Freddy Galvis, SS
- Jiwan James, OF
- Colby Shreve, RHP
- Vance Worley, RHP
- Drew Naylor, RHP
After the top-4, which are pretty set for me, it’s gets a little fuzzy. If we pick anyone great in the draft today, I’ll put where I think he should go in the comments.
Series Preview: Florida Marlins at Phillies
Tuesday (7:05): Kendrick vs. RHP Chris Volstad
Wednesday (7:05): Halladay vs. RHP Josh Johnson
Thursday (7:05): Moyer vs. RHP Anibal Sanchez
3 Questions for the Series
- When will the other shoe drop on Utley? I mean, he’s gotta be hurt, right?
- How good will Mike Stanton’s debut be for the Marlins?
- When we do start hitting, can the pitching keep it up?
Series Prediction
Being overshadowed by the debut of Stephen Strasburg is the debut of Mike Stanton. The 20-year old mashed (and I mean mashed) 21 HR in 52 games playing against guys several years old than him in AA. That’s a 65 HR pace over 162 games. This was not a mirage, as he had 67 HR over his previous 254 games the last 2 years. Stanton, Strasburg and Jason Heyward were the top 3 prospects in all of baseball coming into the season, and now they are all up and playing in the NL East. Fantastic. And it’s very possible that they will just be replaced by a new #1, the Nats Bryce Harper.
As for the series, I’m just going to keep predicting Phillies victories until it happens. I said they needed to go 8-8 on this 16-game stretch to avoid disaster and so far they are 2-2. I say they take 2 of 3 with Ryan Howard waking up a little bit.
Check out all our articles on Phillies’ prospects at our Prospect Page
Any thoughts on Aumont’s demotion?
In completely unrelated news, Cliff Lee threw another CG yesterday.
2.77 ERA, 0.92 WHIP, .222 BAA, 57/4 K/BB on the season.
Lee wouldn’t really help us right now with our offense. But the return on that trade looks horrible right now.
Aumont is still young so this is probably best for him. They are messing with his delivery and other stuff so much, the Eastern League probably isn’t the best place for it.
2nd round pick – Perci Garner, RHP, Ball State
not a flashy pick, but could be a fast-track reliever prospect
On the bright side, it now looks to be okay that we can let Jayson Werth walk after this season.
Domonic Brown!!!! hopefully we will be able to bring him up after this season. Pete, do you think with all these young guys coming up in the NL east do you think they will bring him up some point in the next year?
also what do u know about Stanton, besides his ridiculous AA #’s?
Angelo -
If we don’t re-sign Werth, I would expect to see Brown at CBP on Opening Day.
Stanton is a very elite prospect. Expectations are that he will be hitting 40+ HR’s a year and could be a 50+ HR guy. If he can hit for average and take walks like he did in the minors (not a certainty), Miguel Cabrera with more pop and more strikeouts is not a ridiculous comparison.
We’d better win this effing game.
Horrendous defense all game. It’s causing me to let expletives fly in my house tonight. What the hell was Francisco thinking with that dive? He was no where near the ball.
Made up for it with that hit though!
Raul has 4 hits. Be really impressive if he could sustain something over a few games.
Just when I think I’m out, they pull me back in!
KB -
Did you see the ridiculous article on PhilliesNation about how we should release Raul? I rarely visit that site, but that article reminded me why. I couldn’t resist saying a couple things in the comments.
Stu-
Still got 3 more outs… and now a man on 1st as I type.
Brody Colvin tonight:
7 IP, 0 ER (3 unearned), 6 H, 1 BB, 8 K
Didn’t see it Pete. That’d be a 15 mil gulp. Easy to spend other people’s money, huh?
Lidge. Nassssteeeeeeee
you would think the fact that the Cubs got Carlos Silva (8-0) for Milton Bradley who was WORSE and had TWO years left on his contract would be enough to make that an idiotic suggestion.
also – if they are pitching around Ross to get to Stanton, Lidge better not leave a fastball anywhere near the middle of the plate against Stanton.
This feels like the season right herewith Stanton up.
these last couple Marlins pitchers are doing exactly what hitters did last year when Lidge sucked. They are laying off EVERY slider and making Lidge throw fastball.
phew – GET OUT OF UTLEY’S WAY HOWARD!
Amen!
Sheesh…what a game. Pete, I agree Ben made up for it with that big 2 out single. His D was awful tonight though. Two nonsensical dives/jumps into the wall. Go Halladay, another perfect game tomorrow!
wait a second………… how the hell did Raul “Julio Franco” Ibanez get 4 hits???
Looks like Happ pitched 3 innings in Clearwater tonight.
3IP, 3 H, 2 ER, 0 BB, 2 K
Last I read, his fastball was still sitting 86-88mph. That’s not going to get it done for him.
Here’s a good graphic on Strasburg’s work tonight from the Washington Post. It’s possible you need a password to get to it, but it does graphically suggest (1 start in, mind you, where you want to try to get a pitch from him.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/sports/nationals/pitch-tracker/
Several weeks ago, somewhere in the history of this site, Pete wrote a piece, or a comment at least saying words to the effect of how bad it make RAJ look if the Mets acquired Cliff Lee, maybe going on to beat the Phils out.
Don’t look now, but the Mets have climbed to within a half game of the Phils in the standings. Again.
And what’s not much better is this division is so up for grabs that Washington, a lot more formidable in their rotation than they were 48 hours ago, with a potential (very key word) Chien May Wong coming back to the rotation in a few weeks could acquire Lee, and take an already high decibel fan level to intense levels.
And if you are happy with 3 straight WS appearances, dreamy as it may seem right now, the NY Post is reporting the obvious this morning, that the Mariners expect the Yanks to make a bid.
A Lee acquisition by any of St. Louis, Cincy, or the Dodgers would also warn loudly of an end to late fall participation by the Phils.
They may play the game on the field, but any one of a number of teams could get Cliff, and go a lot further than they might/would have, but it isn’t just the Mets acquiring him that would make Ruben look bad.
It’s not the same, maybe quite different in a lot of ways (free agent era, point in career), but you can’t help but sense that by the time Cliff Lee is done, we’re gonna know too well how the Cardinal fans felt every time Steve Carlton pitched for the Phils. Pained. Very pained.
KB-
And the fact that 2 of the 3 prospects acquired in the deal haven’t done anything good this season doesn’t help.
oh – and all hail King Strasburg
Bradulations: 31 pitch, 2 hit, 1 walk save … he huffed and he puffed and he (eventually) blew their house down.
Victorino yank was the shot heard ’round the dugout … a spark.
Francisco didn’t resemble Al Kaline in right field, but he did a nice imitation of him on 0-1, 2-out fastball in 8th, blistering it past Ramirez for 2 ribbies and the lead. Big Ben paves over a rough patch of play with one timely stroke.
Jayson is mad at Charlie for saying publicly (in response to a reporter’s question), yes, pending free agency is probably affecting his performance. That unplanned call-out and last night’s benching could light Werth’s fire. Or he could continue to swing like Uncle Ralph at the family reunion picnic.
I always assumed that since Rube gave Seattle a break, they’d return the favor if Lee was ever on the table again…
Otherwise, Reuben has done an iffy job as GM:
-2 years for Moyer
-Too much and too long for Howard
-Ibanez…
-Not getting enough/working hard enough to keep Lee
Have to agree Tony.
Regardless of how well Moyer has pitched this year, it wasn’t a smart move.
While I’m happy to have Howard, Ruben vastly overvalued his worth, both in years and dollars.
No one thought a 3rd year for Ibanez was a good idea.
I was OK with trading Lee, but didn’t think he got nearly enough for him.
I would add that a 3rd year for Polanco wasn’t terribly smart either.
On the positive side with Ruben (he’s not a sandwich)…
Pete, as you and I both know, no matter what good he as done, if Cliff Lee goes to a playoff contender and they wind up knocking the phillies out of the playoffs, everyone and i mean everyone will be call for RAJ head.
I love some of the things he has done don’t get me wrong, but every time i see Lee i cringe a little bit (partly because i bought a t-shirt jersey last year and was pissed they traded him).
I as well as all you probably think what could have been with a Halladay-Lee-Hamels rotation. It kind of depresses me thinking about Cliff Lee partly cause hes a good dude, and he got blindsided by the trade. ( and he actually seemed like he genuinely wanted to stay in Philly)
ps. check your email pete
After sticking my neck out yesterday trying to get him a start, Francisco pulled my fat out of the fire with his hit in the 8th.
Come to think of it, Francisco, by way of his 2 GIDPs and 2 misplays in the field, got my fat in the fire in the first place, so it’s only right that he’d atone like that.
Angelo, your main gripe about the Lee trade is that you blew 30 bucks on a T-SHIRT JERSEY???
I can’t even imagine how pissed you’d be if you bought the real thing.
yeah, I wouldn’t worry about the t-shirt jersey. that’s a classic now.
I’d start Francisco over Werth again today if I’m Manuel. Josh Johnson is not the guy to get out of your funk against.
i have an issue with it (because obviously im not gonna stop wearing it) because ever time i put the Lee 34 Jersey on i just think what could have been……
also side note: when can we buy Brown/Singleton t-shirt jerseys?/ what is Singletons big league time table?
All this jersey/t-shirt talk reminded me that MLBShop.com still has Thome jerseys for sale (now reduced to $158.97 from $199.99)! They can’t be serious.
I also found a Pat Burrell Jersey for $150.97 (marked down from $189.99), a Cliff Lee replica alternate home jersey for $79.97 (down from $99.99), and, finally, something we may actually be able to reuse—a Pedro Martinez player name and number t-shirt for $9.97 (down from $22.99) which is much more like a clearance price.
It might be worth taking a gamble and picking up that last item now just in case he does rejoin the team and the item goes back up to full price.
Pedro! Pedro!! Pedro!!! Rey de la colina, por favor veulta. La falta de Phillies su valor.
Angelo,
I’m pretty sure you can customize jersey shirts on the website
D. Brown is #7 at Reading, Singleton is #14.
As for Singleton’s arrival. It’s a LOOONG way off. He is 18, turning 19 in September. Chances are to make it up here he’s going to have to learn to play OF. I’d guess 2013 if he’s a truly elite prospect (which we don’t really know yet).
I have a Tony Armas Jr. Nationals t-shirt jersey that I wear to Nats Park when the Phils aren’t in town. It came down to either him or (almost Phillie) Brad Wilkerson.
La correccion para anunciar 38: El rey de la colina, regresa por favor. El Phillies pierde su valor. [Latin American Spanish, as opposed to ill-applied Mexican Spanish]
actually the retro Griffey Mariners jersey is pretty sweet.
as for the game tonight, JJ is one of those pitchers we usually struggle against, so if we drop a game this series I think its this one, even with halladay pitching.
Most teams struggle against JJ. 40-18, 3.22 career. But he’s throwing his considerable repertoire in Toyland on Pattison where flyballs go to really fly - - a threatening proposition for even a stout-hearted and talented moundsman such as he.
Mixing eras: Stylishly coiled-in-wait John Wesley Covington – Phillies outfielder from ’61 -’65 - would’ve taken one of JJ’s undancing fastballs downtown to Somerset St. over the battleship gray rightfield wall into the dark majestic night. Was a strong hitter whose career was somewhat limited by early knee damage incurred while playing as a kid on great Braves teams of late 50s; World Champs in ’57 - Covington sometimes hit 5th behind Henry Aaron & Eddie Matthews; 21 dingers in 96 games that year, 24 in 90 the next. Wes, #26 and then #43, was a solid contributor on rising, exciting Mauch-managed Phils; could really handle the lumber.
Is the game rainout? barkann just announced it on Daily News live
In relation to Cliff Lee, I would put much more fault to ownership, they had the power to tell RAJ to keep Lee for an awsome run in 2010 and just take the 2 picks when he signed elsewhere.
Good point EVForce. Trade arrangement and specifics, Amaro’s, Decision to not sign Lee, who had a fantastic July to Oct here excepting his refusal to pitch on short rest, is ultimately on ownership team.
Otherwise, Reuben has done an iffy job as GM:
-2 years for Moyer
-Too much and too long for Howard
-Ibanez…
-Not getting enough/working hard enough to keep Lee>>
Tony,
I would certainly grant you that RAJ has not been perfect.
And some moves have proven flawed, no question.
However…
Number 1, every GM has made mistakes. Brian Cashman, Theo Epstein included.
Doug Melvin, as good a baseball man as there is has seemingly failed miserably with the Brewers pitching staff. Ad infanitum. So on the whole, I can’t be overtly critical of RAJ because of some moves that haven’t worked to perfection.
You attempted to name some, but I believe are short sighted in those items.
Ibanez. His first half last year was priceless, but as importantly, free agents have negotiating power. If the Phils don’t give Ibanez and Moyer the extra years, maybe they don’t get them, and over the course of their entirety, let’s judge then if we do choose to overlook the players having negotiating power. Both have stunk at times, but also made valuble contributions.
As for the RyHo contract, I’m not thrilled with so much money at one player, but its early to be critical.
The rebuild the farm system explanation was okay at the start. It has not worked out and Ruben has to answer for that. But on the whole, I’m okay if not overly enthused with his being the man for the upcoming trade deadline. Some of it may have to do with I don’t know who I’d rather have in his stead from available people, or inside baseball people.
I know I like him better than ned Coletti and Omar Minaya for sure.
I’ll add that myself included, we tend to evaluate Ruben on the moves. They are joint decisions based on a lot of Phils officials input.
For those blaming ownership for the Lee trade, Reuben’s job still was to find the best available package for Lee. He did a sh!tty job doing so by taking the first and only offer and not drumming up a bidding war.
To Ken Bland, I’m a fan of your posts and always look forward to them and find you to be the most knowledgeable. It might be that Amaro’s moves were joint decisions but his name and rep is ultimately tied to those moves. I don’t think Amaro is a bad GM but some of his moves have been questionable. Of course, if the Phils wind up winning the WS this year, he will look like a genius again.
Give it up on the “what if we have to face Lee now” scenarios. Please stop with the hypotheticals. It was an organization call – RAJ was part of it sure – but it was a group decision. For those complaining about getting more for him I think it is ridiculous to expect to get much for a guy in his last year who made public that he would test the market after 2010. that’s two major chips that hurt you as the seller. Would you be happy if we traded Dominic Brown right now to rent Lee for the rest of the season? No. So why would we expect a great prospect for him last year as a rent-a-player.
What people don’t seem to account for is that someone was going to get Halladay this past offseason. If we kept Lee we would not have pursued Halladay. then Halladay ends up with another contender. So would you rather face Halladay or Lee on the way to the WS. Thank RAJ, you could be whining how you wish we traded for Halladay instead of the Dodgers getting him.
I don’t think Amaro is a bad GM but some of his moves have been questionable.>>
Well, I hope questionable means you saw some degree of merit to my point about patience, and player’s negotiating power in length.
And thank you.
<<I think it is ridiculous to expect to get much for a guy in his last year who made public that he would test the market after 2010. >>
That part is true, but when you consider the bona fide proven difference maker, pretty inexpensive for the rest of the year, and most importantly, number of clubs who should be in the market for him, that should drive the price up. To clubs like the Cards and Dodgers, as 2 examples, he should project as an absolute difference maker, and in theory, they should give up more to outbid others. Jack Z oughta have some fun with this deal, I would think.
That part is true, but when you consider the bona fide proven difference maker, pretty inexpensive for the rest of the year, and most importantly, number of clubs who should be in the market for him, that should drive the price up. To clubs like the Cards and Dodgers, as 2 examples, he should project as an absolute difference maker, and in theory, they should give up more to outbid others. >>
Ken – its one of the other. Would you rather the Cards or Dodgers have Halladay? He was going to be moved. They were both out there and we got one of them – the better one I think.
I have said many times I didn’t think we got enough for Lee.
I personally don’t think it was a money move. I truly believe that Amaro wanted prospects (don’t give me the 2 draft picks nonsense, draft picks fail 80% of the time, these prospects have already gone past that stage). I think the money spent since Lee left shows it wasn’t a money thing.
Regardless. My point here is that even though I don’t think we got enough, it’s WAY too early to bury the prospects we got.
Gillies – Only 21, and was VERY impressive in spring training. got hurt early and hasn’t really played this year. We really don’t know what we have with him yet.
Aumont – HORRIBLE in Reading. But he’s also 21, and has an elite arm. The sooner the Phillies realize he is a closer, the better. Until then, I really can’t judge him that much.
Ramirez – Has showed signs. Also only 21. Either pulls together a 3rd pitch and becomes a middle of the rotation starter, or become a reliever. Has a major league arm.
Also – this Flyers game is killin’ me.
Would you rather the Cards or Dodgers have Halladay?>>
Let’s change the subject. You have local angles of interest on Strasburg last night and reactions?
I’m selfish, i want both Lee and Halladay. if we were the yankees or red sox it would be a no brainer…
The sooner the Phillies realize he is a closer, the better.>>
Okay, lets change the subject back. That comment is about Aumont. I totally agree. If Seattle hadn’t traded him, he’d be in the bigs now, and I would think doing okay as a middle man. Why on earth does he have to start?
And for you boys ripping Mr. Amaro. Not that i read them all dilligently, or maybe nobody did really mention it, but this nonsense with Mathieson being in the minors and pardon me if he actually has said more than “he’s not ready”, but what is up with that?
So Lidge is back. So what? Tough to understand.
if we were the yankees or red sox it would be a no brainer…>>
That’s the part myth about the Yanks and Red Sox. So far, neither club has ever had either pitcher. I guess it might be because the Jays wanted him out of the division, but neither one got Lee from the Tribe last year.
Leighton has left in a bad one. Uggh
Go Phils
But the better team won…
yeah, real weak goal to end it – 2nd weak one Leighton let in IMO. Oh well. Flyers need a goalie, what else is new.
blackhawks deserved it.
Flyers need a goalie, what else is new.>>
Pete, I thought you said you didn’t know that much about hockey. That statement pretty much defines Flyers since Hextall days. Still looking for a world class goalie.
Still, six straight times to the finals now and lost each one. Pretty pathetic streak. You would think they would have won one, even with an average goalie. Niemi wasn’t that great – above average but no better. Hawks just had much better depth and limited scoring chances.
Am I misremembering but every time I see Kane’s Cup winning goal it looks and aweful llot like Crosby’s Gold Medal winning goal. Incredible similar play to win the trophy/medal.
lets get to the strasburg reaction, where the hell did this kid come from? out of high school he was barely even drafted, and the analysts were talking about how he barely got through the training at San Diego state his freshman yr. the kid is unbelievable now, even though it was the pirates. i could be mistaken but those are the same pirates who got 10 hits of halladay.
HEXTALL, then:
John Vanbiesbrouck, Ken Wregget, Tommy Soderstrom, Garth Snow, Sean Burke, Dominic Roussel, Brian Boucher, Roman Cechmanek, Neil Little, Maxime Ouellet (the phenom!), Jeff Hackett, Robert Esche, Niittymaki, Biron, Ray Emery, Leighton…ugh…
If you look at what the rumors are for Lee to be traded right now, it is obvious (still!) that RAJ made a terrible trade. The players being mentioned are much better prospects (and were in March) and it is only for 20 starts of Lee from the new teams instead of 30-33, so you can only assume that for 50% more starts teams would have given up that much more.
the kid is unbelievable now, even though it was the pirates.>>
What team would you like to see him matched up against that would take any doubt of his work?
His next starts project as Cleveland, the White Sox and Kansas City, and then the Braves. He’ll miss the Orioles and Kansas City. I would think we’ll hear about his matching up against soft competition for a while here. And it does consider some degree of validity.
While the Nats face that soft schedule, the Phils keep working through this 16 game stretch that really intensifies starting tomorrow. Even without Strasburg, the Nats have a chance to really tighten the division up if the Braves don’t play well and the Phils play sub .500.
As much as I enjoyed watching the Flyers during the playoffs, last night’s game had a lot of things that make me not become a huge hockey fan…
Marc, rumors are just that, rumors. Its in the Mariners best interest to drive up the price for all participating teams, so until players are actually exchanged, I won’t be passing judgment.
I agree with Pete that all of the prospects are 21, and there is no need to jump to call the trade a bust. Not every young prospect is Jason Heyward or Strasburg.
We would never have traded him to the Mets, Cardinals, or Dodgers (i.e. a 2010 contending NL team), so the prospects they are offering are moot anyway. There really were only a handful of AL teams that could afford him, thought they would contend last winter, and had some prospects. To everybody complaining, hindsight is 20/20, end of story, get over it. Moyer has been pretty effective this year for all of the grief that he took as Lee’s “replacement”.
>>Penalties can dominate the game. Like any other sport, Hockey penalties are subjective, but unlike any sport, a single call can account for 33% of the scoring in the entire game. Can you imagine a bad call in basketball that cost a team 33 points? There were several calls for both teams last night that were HORRIBLE. >>
Pete – I agree with all your points but this one. A well timed holding (often one that could be called any time in the game) call in football can turn a game.
I live in DC area. Strasburg hype was amazing leading up to his start. Somehow, he exceeded the hype. Think of him this way – he is Cole Hamels with a better fastball and TWO more great pitches. You know how we are dying for Cole to develop that 3rd pitch? Strasburg already has a 4th, and his best pitch is better than Cole’s. Not too shabby. competition won’t matter. He will strike at 10+ phils. He will average more than one k per inning.
Nats are the most exciting competition in the division in my book. They have what scouts project as three #1 starters in the majors by end of 2011. Strasburg, Zimmerman (who is rehabing and throwing 94-95 again), and Ross Detwiler. Drew Storen will close next year. No shocker, Stan Kasten is GM – sound familiar?
Amazing stat – even with the Phils 3 weeks of hitting hell, they are the only team in the majors with 4 or more players with 10 homers or more.
@Stu Marc, rumors are just that, rumors. Its in the Mariners best interest to drive up the price for all participating teams, so until players are actually exchanged, I won’t be passing judgment.
Wasn’t it the Phils best interest to drive up the price 3 months ago? What am I missing. They messed up.
>>Wasn’t it the Phils best interest to drive up the price 3 months ago? What am I missing. They messed up.<<
Can’t drive up the price when there are so few viable trading partners.
At the time of the trade:
Phils got a 4-star (Aumont) and two 3-star prospects for Lee.
The following teams, who meet all of your trading partner criteria (AL, have $$, thought they are contenders going into season), had more to offer:
-Yankees
-Red Sox
-Rangers
-Angels (no 5 star prospects but five 4-star prospects in their system)
(And oh by the way, Seattle themselves had more – they didnt give up any of their top 3 prospects in the trade)
Red Sox might not be willing to deal to get Lee of those teams b/c of their SP depth, but the other 3 definitely were interested. And could probably throw the White Sox into that mix as well. An old and tired subject, but seems like you could at the very least have had Seattle and one of the other 3-4 teams listed bid against each other instead of just pulling the trigger.
Its just another example of a mistake made by the current Phils GM listed above by Tony and Pete. Hopefully he goes soon…His list of good moves IMO is short: trading for Lee (which he then botched by trading him away for little value — essentially he bought a dollar for 50 cents, then sold it for 70 cents … made a profit of 20 cents but it was still worth 1 dollar), and getting Halladay (a no-brainer)
I am tired of talking about this. If you really think that the Phillies would have lost to the Yankees in the World Series and then traded Cliff Lee to them 6 weeks later, you are retarded.
well, when he ends up there anyway, and seattle ends up with a better package of prospects than they had 4 months ago, im sure you will change your mind
In other news….
“There goes the neighborhood”
Colorado has officially accepted the Pac-10 invitation.
USC is banned from bowls for 2 years
Nebraska will officially accept a bid from the Big Ten
Texas n’ Texas A&M will decide if the want to stay in the big 12 or leave for the Pac-10 tomorrow.
boom, shits really hitting the fan today
cmon … let it go.
Lee’s doing fine. good for him.
his exchange prospects not so much. still too early.
most trades for prospects end up that way anyway. unless you’re Larry Beinfest.
RAJ lost his leverage once he acquired Halladay.
Hey Guys:
Two comments and a question for you.
Why I think the signing of Moyer and Howard were good deals for the phils:
Moyer:
1. Jamie won 16 games in 2008 and had a great record against the NL east.
2. He was also a great hepin “maturing” Hamels through a great season and helping a young staff and team handle the pressures of “playoffs and “World Series”. ( and “Doc” this year!)
3. I would bet that if the Phils didn’t hadn’t signed him, the Fish or Nats would have signed him in a minute, as a player/coach for their young staffs.
4. Jamie is the type of “junkball lefty” that the Phillies have always had trouble beating. (Remember this years Pirate series?)
5. He usually gives his team a great chance to win and as a #5, that’s all you can ask for.
6. I would sign him again for nest year for all the abve reasons.
Ryan Howard:
1. If Howard would have gone to “free agency” or signed AFTER Albert signed with St Louis or whomever, I think it would have cost 2-3 million more per year to sign him, and I doubt the Phils would have been able to do tht with their payroll structure.
2. Ryan is very popular with his teammates and not having him here affects the chemestry. He is always trying to improve, and he seems to understand the “fans” and their culture. (I’m not sure prince or AG could handle it)
Now the Question?
If you knew that by signing Jayson Werth to a long term contact that we would not be able to sign J-Roll after 2011, do you sign Jayson?
My answer is as much as I like Jayson and knowing how important his right handed bat is to this lineup, I would rather have J-Roll.
1. He is the face and HEART of this franchise, and I think he is and was most responsible for turning this tem and city into winners, and to me he needs to play out his career as a Phil. (i’ve followed the Phils since 1953 and he has ment more than Carlton, Schmidt or Rose did for this franchise.
Bob,
What if I told you that instead of paying Moyer this year you could pay Lee? The average salary in 2010 for a starting pitcher is $4,600,000. That number is skewed up by #1 starters who make upwards of $15-23 million per season and for the average 5th starter (which you call Jamie, and he is) is less than $1,000,000. Moyer is being paid $8,000,000 this season and Lee is being paid $9,00 ,000. Jamie makes more than double the average starter, and over 9 times that of a #5 starter. Lee makes 50-75% of what a #1 starter makes. Bad decisions to sign mediocre talent to high dollar contracts have hamstrung this team. And as for “junk” pitchers killing the Phillies, you are pointing to one game. ”Quality” pitchers kill the Phillies also, on a much more consistent basis.
As for Howard, do you really think that the contract is one that Howard wouldn’t sign in 2 years? What team would pay him more than 5 years/125 million? That is more than Teixeira got when he was a Free Agent (23 million per year vs. 25 million) and Teixeira hit the market at age 28. Howard will be 32!!! Wouldn’t you like to wait until at least after this season to see how he performs before signing him? Don’t forget that the contract we are discussing STARTS in 2012, when he will be 32 — you already had him signed until then. He is older than all of the other prominent Free Agent 1B that year (Pujols, Gonzalez and Fielder) and is a worse player than Pujols and also worse than Gonzalez. Howard is a top 40-50 player now, and will be top 75 when the contract STARTS, and will only continue to decline from age 32 to 37. Yet the Phils will be paying him like a top 10-20. I don’t think that a single team in baseball right now would take Howard for nothing if it meant that they had to pay him the full amount of his contract, and if there are teams, its less than I have fingers on one hand.
Moreover, would you rather have Raul Ibanez for 3 years/31 million or Adam Dunn for 2/20? They were both available, both lefties, both LF with questionable defense. We chose an older, worse hitter for more money and more years. I don’t think Raul is as good as his first half, nor as horrible as this start to the year, but I KNOW that Dunn is/was/always has been a better player.
I think that the other smart GM’s around baseball are quietly very happy with what the Phillies are doing, because they are setting themselves up to do poorly in the future by overpaying older players and locking themselves into high payrolls. The Phillies, unlike the Red Sox, Cubs, Mets and Yankees, need a competitive team to draw fans. Sorry, but pre-2007 when they won the NL East Division no one went to the games, and their payroll was a bit over half of what it is now (88mil vs. 138mil). Their farm system, outside of Brown, has no one really that close to the majors. Singleton is a bright spot but he is 3-4 years away, and a LOT can happen between now and then. These bad contracts will catch up with them.
Obviously Pujols will be unavailable, but if you think Howard is so great I suggest you look at the stats of the players also available that year (and I will throw in Teixeira also since he signed a similar contract): In MLB, RyHo was #31 in WAR in 2009 (behind Pujols, Gonzalez, Fielder and Teixeira), #71 in WAR in 2008 (again, behind all 4), #40 in WAR in 2007 (behind everyone but A-Gon) and #6 in WAR in 2006 (ahead of everyone but Pujols).
I think we can agree at this point that 2006 was probably the anomaly. In 2010 (small sample size still, you need about 550 PA before WAR means a lot and he is only halfway there) he is #121. It would be hard at this point for him to achieve anything in the top 30 by the end of the season, and he will most likely finish 50-80 given his history. But the picture is not pretty. Plus the other teams out there get to look at the players for another 2 years, which is a free option that is worth money…remember that Howard himself was blocked by Jim Thome for 1 1/2 years when he was ready to come up because of the contract that Thome had at the time and the Phils tried to trade him for <a href=”http://www.postgazette.com/pg/07231/810532-63.stm”>Kris Benson</a>. Maybe Howard will block someone else who comes up in 2012-13? Maybe someone else will emerge as a free agent who is better? Maybe Howard will get injured this year and you would never want to sign him to this contract? The point is that you are giving up that option and not getting a discount on the price tag of Howard. If you got a discount so that you actually get compensated for giving up this option, its a different story. But for no discount it is a dumb deal.
be a little more pessimistic….
lighten up, were probable never gonna see a team like this for 30 years.
this is a once in a 30 year squad, we should enjoy it, not complain about Howard’s contract. as for that i think the phillies did what they had to do with him. that’s how it works, its better then not having ryan howard i can tell you that.
You miss the whole point. Its not about having Howard or not. Howard is very good at baseball. I want him to be the best 1B in baseball. I root for him. But I am aware of when the GM is not smart. And Amaro is dumb. Its about paying him a) too early and b) market price. If you pay someone early, guaranteed money, you get a discount or you don’t do it. Its about over paying Moyer more than anyone would have paid him, and eventually that leads to not being able to keep Lee. Its about paying Ibanez more than Dunn and for more years. Its about giving an extra year to Polanco, or signing Gload and having a clone of him in Dobbs. Or Schneider to a 2 year deal. Some are major, some are minor, but all of these things add up and catch up to a team.
SABR
Hindsight is 20/20. Moyer was coming off of a 16 win season and without a 2 year contract he probably would have gone. You also dismiss the amount of coaching help he has provided during his time here, as I stated above. You can’t put a $ amount on the help he has been to Hamels, Happ, Ruiz and other players as a vet. As, many can tell you, your parents or coaches can tell you things when your young that may not register, but when the same thing is said by a “peer” it can soften get thru faster. I don’t believe Hamels has the postseason he had without Jamie being here. I would have liked to have Lee also, but I would rather have Doc for 3 year than Lee for 1. I think it will be interesting to see how the season plays out for wins for Lee & Moyer. When the Phils were hitting the ball, Cliff was on the DL and when he came back, the phils were not hitting a lick, so I wonder how many wins he might have if he were here. Also, When Jamie was signed he was #3 or #4.
If Albert signs for 30+ Mil per year, there is no way Howard signs for 25 mil in free agency, cause each year players use prev years figures as a guide for following year. You think ATL, Boston, Mets, Marlins in a new park wanting to make a splash, don’t offer major $ especially ater 2 more years of 45 – 50 HR and 145 RBI’s., and if AP does leave St Louis you can bet that they would go hard after Ryan. We shall see how AP’s contract affects Prince and AG.
What are your thoughts on Jayson / Jimmy?
Bob,
Jamie signed the contract AFTER 2008, so your point does not make sense. Jamie still would have been there for the post-season with his mentoring and would not be here last year or this year. But if you don’t sign Jamie, then you sign an average pitcher last year to a 1 year deal (How about we call him Pedro Martinez, who signed to REPLACE Jamie in the rotation for the last half of the year and the playoffs). Now, for 2010 you have the extra $8 million and can’t sell the fans on the fact that you can’t pay $9 million to keep Lee because of budgeting. So in essence that decision to keep Moyer really came back to bite the organization. And that was really the first move of the Amaro-led Phillies along with signing Ibanez and letting Burrell walk (who, I admit, I would have kept over Ibanez but not Dunn, one of the most under-rated players in the game).
As for your RyHo comments, the Marlins are not going to pay that (what in their entire history makes you think they will – they traded away a MUCH younger and better player at 1B in Miguel Cabrera so they wouldn’t have to pay him). The Cardinals will re-sign Pujols, but even if they don’t then the Phils look worse because we gave up a chance to get the best player in baseball for a marginal amount of money compared to the Howard deal. Boston has MUCH more interest in Gonzalez and Fielder than Howard and it is well-documented. ATL has never been linked to Howard and usually doesn’t sign big money guys (remember, they traded Teixeira to LAA in the last year of his deal because they didn’t want to pay him free agency money after trading for him the year before). The Mets would probably make a run at him, although it would be hard to fathom that they would offer more than 5/125 when they themselves have to pay Wright, Bay, Santana, K-Rod, etc.
As for Jayson, I think its funny you ask because if you signed Dunn instead of Ibanez, then you have an extra $13 mil to play with next year and don’t have to have this big budget crunch with Werth AND you aren’t blocking Brown from coming up. I agree with you that they will keep Rollins. As for Werth, it depends if they can convince anyone to take a portion of Ibanez’s contract.
SABR-
In general, I agree with you on Howard. I think they should have waited.
But I will say this – there is a difference between being overpaid and being unproductive. Once Ibanez is gone, what contract will be holding this team back aside from Howard? I don’t think you will argue that Halladay ($20 mil) and Utley ($15 mil) are overpaid. Hamels, Vic and Blanton are about market value (assuming both start playing better) and they only have 2 more years on their deals. What else is there? I don’t think they will sign Werth.
This isn’t like the Yankees where we have 6 7-year deals on the team. We have exactly 3 players under contract for 2013 (Halladay, Utley, Howard) and the presumption is that we will have a lot of cheap, home grown talent to make it work money-wise. The farm system is incredibly important, but to act like the Phillies are going to be completely tied up in the future because of Howard doesn’t work at the moment.
And on the fanbase point – it makes me wonder if you are a Phillies fan or not. If you are, you would know that our attendance SUCKED because we were at the worst stadium in baseball, the Vet, and ownership showed absolutely no signs of competing (think the Pirates now). Now, people LOVE the stadium and LOVE the players (Utley, Howard, Rollins, Halladay). If we don’t make the playoffs this year, we will still sell 95% of our tickets next year. If we don’t make the playoffs again, we will still sell 90% the following year. This team and this ownership (showing they aren’t cheap) and this stadium and built A LOT of good will with the fans, and they aren’t going to just stop going if we aren’t good for one year. And once you get past the couple years of (theoretical) decline, you are so far out (2013) that speculation is pointless.
I wrote at the time of the signing that the 2nd year for Moyer and the 3rd year for Ibanez were not smart moves, but your “we could have Lee and Dunn!” thing is an exercise that ANY fan of ANY team could do. It’s easy to be an awesome GM when you already know what happened.
Pete,
I am a Phils fan, and it was really, really easy to get tickets pre-2007. Baseball-Reference has the attendance figures and the 1st year of the new Park we were 2/16 in the NL because of the new park. But from 2005-2007 we were 9,7 and 6 in attendance in the NL (and 4,2,1 from 2008-10). Most fans show up only when the team is good … from b-r it looks like people only show up the year the team has been good in the past, and then the year or two after. The best years for attendance were the mid 70s-84 for attendance, but we were really good (6 Div titles, 2 WSA, 1 WS). Obviously the stadium mattered some, as did our owners (“small market team”, etc) but winning ultimately matters. Look at Cleveland or Baltimore, because they used to be like us in terms of awesome stadium, ownership, etc.
As for the GMing from 3 years back, I don’t have a blog so clearly I do not keep a record of my opinion documented (and to your credit, you do, but I just dont have time for it) so its hard to say “I said it at the time”, but just like I am saying with the Howard contract at the time, I said that we should not re-sign Jamie nor get Ibanez for that contract as well. My opinion was to offer arbitration to Burrell and re-sign him if he accepts, if he doesn’t (which was probably 50/50) then take the draft picks and sign Dunn. I thought (and still think) that at the time it was the best course of action, even if we ended up with Burrell and he stunk. Believe it if you will, don’t if you don’t, obviously it doesn’t have any relevance to the real world. The Moyer contract was in every conceivable way horrible at the time, and still is.
The thing that bothers me about Amaro, however, is that he seemingly always makes decisions that are not as good as other options available — he does not maximize his opportunities and he doesn’t do things that statistically would provide for the best possible outcome. Its almost as if he intentionally does things that would piss off the “statistically inclined” fan and appease the “old school” fan who is in love with wins, RBIs and the like. He also seems to have no concept of “aging” and thinks that guys are still on steroids and can peak into their 40s.
Also, Josh Johnson is not terrible at pitching.
SABR,
Yeah, attendance dropped after the first year of the park. But I feel that this team has generated enough good will (and the Phillies have done enough to make the ballpark fun) that as long as we are competitive and have players that the people know and love, the attendance won’t fall back to 2005-2006 levels. 2007 is actually a good example, as we didn’t make the playoffs until the final day (it seemed like any other season), and we were out of it for awhile, but we still drew nearly 40K fans a game because people were really starting to connect with Rollins, Utley, Howard, etc in a way they never did with Burrell, Abreu and Rolen. So I’d say it would take a lot to get us back to 2005-2006 levels. A couple bad seasons in a row and a couple more bad moves and perhaps a stupid comment or two by a couple players. Let’s just hope we keep making the playoffs and that doesn’t happen.
I wasn’t criticizing you being against the Moyer contract at the time. I just don’t think it’s fair to say we could have had Lee if we didn’t have Moyer. Lee has nothing to do with Moyer. Obviously if Ruben knew in 2008 that…
A. Lee would be available for trade
B. He would be easy to trade for
C. He would lead us the Pennant and become a fan favorite
D. We would also be able to trade for Halladay and extend him
I think he would have saved the money. But he didn’t and no one would have predicted that’s what would happen. Yes, it’s a good point that Ruben needs to be more conservative with his spending, and learn about how players age, but at the time, no one was thinking about Cliff Lee or Roy Halladay during the Moyer contract.
“he does not maximize his opportunities and he doesn’t do things that statistically would provide for the best possible outcome.” I agree with this 100% and also agree that Ruben seems stubborn and wants to prove the stat geeks wrong.
I think there is a balance between stats and old school logic.
Guys like Keith Law, who think every contract ever signed is overpriced, would run a team by having a $50 million payroll because he would never pay above market value and would have to rely on catching lighting in a bottle with young players. The only team that has been able to do this successfully is the Rays, and they have made 1 post-season appearance.
I’ve always said that the Yankees should win the World Series every year if they spent their money correctly. They should dominate the draft and the international market, while still having the highest payroll in the league. They choose to just go sign every free agent out there. It’s not the way I would run the business, but they won the title last year, and us the year before.
The Red Sox are closest you will find to a perfect balance of stats and common sense, but even they look stupid a lot.
In my opinion, it’s important to be a fan first and a critic second, or else all the fun of sports gets sucked out.
Oh, and yes, Josh Johnson was not who we needed to face tonight. And it looks like there might be a better version of him in DC now.
And Ryan – I THINK LEO NUNEZ IS GOING TO THROW YOU CHANGE-UPS, JUST AN FYI.
First of all, that Howard AB was god awful. How he can swing at those first two pitches when the pitcher and catcher get together to talk about pitching him is beyond me. 2 run game, man on base — wait for a pitch you can hit with 0 strikes…
The point isnt that Amaro should have known to save the money for Lee — obviously that is impossible. He should have known that by not spending the money on Moyer, though, he had the opportunity to do something with it in the future. Whether that is Lee, or a better guy at another position is besides the point. When you overpay, unless you are the Yankees, there is an opportunity cost because you don’t have unlimited funds where you can cut ties with the bad contracts and sign a replacement. So all of these contracts have a real effect on this team, and we have (Moyer/Lee) and will (Ibanez/Werth) see it take effect. If it were up to me I would have let Howard play next season and (most likely) let him walk or sign him at that point to a reasonable contract (if he is still performing as of that off season, no more than a 3 year deal)
I agree that a Keith Law type is an extreme and don’t think he would make a good GM (and subsequently that is why he works for ESPN.com and not as a GM). And I was going to mention the Red Sox because they have done things the way that tries to maximize, although I am not sure why you think they have looked foolish (2 WS wins, playoffs in 5 of 6 years since Theo came along doing things the way you are talking about). They look “bad” this year with Beckett Cameron and Ellsbury hurt, but even with that they are 35-26 playing in the toughest division in baseball (which would be T-1 in NL East)
Yup – Howard goes up in those situations trying to hit a HR way too much. Did he really think he was getting a first pitch fastball?
Before the Howard contract, I was hoping that they would let him walk (or trade him after this season for prospects) – and move Werth to 1B (and re-sign him) and put Dom Brown in RF.
Foolish was probably the wrong word – but my point was simply that even the team that does things the right way makes mistakes and has bad contracts.
Not sure they are feeling too good about the Lackey deal right now. Obviously there are mixed thoughts on JD Drew, not sure he’s been worth the $14 million a year he’s been getting. Mike Lowell has made $24 million last year and this year. Dice-K’s contract could end up being a disaster.
Agreed. I probably would not trade Howard, more likely to let him walk unless you get his replacement in a trade (and offer arb and collect the sandwich pick for him), and have the flexibility to get the best player available from a ton of positions in 2012: OF, 1B 2B or 3B (can leave Werth in the OF or have him play 1B with Brown a corner OF either way and can move Utley to first, Polanco to 2nd as need be depending on who you sign). Utley plays fantastic 2B defense but so does Polanco, so it gives you the ability to just get the best player at basically any position.
Of course, now you have no flexibility unless at the next CBA the NL gets the DH, which will never ever happen.
JD Drew is another guy who gets the “Dunn” treatment in that the general view of him is worse than he actually is, because he was pumped by Boras as Jesus Shuttlesworth way back when. He is probably worth the money. Dice-K was a pretty horrible mistake (don’t forget his HUGE transfer fee in addition to the cash they pay him), and Lowell contract is pretty bad but they signed him before the economy crash so it looks worse than it probably was at the time, but honestly I don’t remember what it looked like compared to other 3B at the time and don’t follow the Red Sox. The Lackey contract is sneaky good on Cots, IMO, look it up. It pays him with bonus 21.5 this year and 15.25 in subsequent 4 years (he is 31 this year), and has the following in it “2015 club option at Major League minimum salary if Lackey misses significant time with surgery for pre-existing elbow injury in 2010-14″
Not sure what triggers that, but time on the DL in a five year span with an elbow problem seemingly triggers this (and if he gets Tommy John then the insurance co. pays his 15.25 mil salary for the year or two he misses). I’ve never seen that before but it seems super club-friendly to me. That would be his age 36 season.
Lackey will probably turn it around, but Red Sox fans are probably pretty worried right now, he’s been pretty horrible….
Current H/9: 10.5
- career-worst was 9.8 in 2004
Current BB/9: 4.2
- career-worst was 3.1 in 2005
Current K/9: 5.0
- career worst was 5.7 his rookie year (2003). Over 7.1 K/9 each of the last 5 years.
Daisuke = Barry Zito
that contract (factor in negotiating fee – lol) is HUGE!
Lackey has track record, history and consistency on his side.
unfortunately for disliked BoSox, he will be alright.
I think my head is spinning more after reading all the above stuff on the usual Moyer/Ibanez/Cliff Lee stuff than when I watched Earl Monroe spin for the jump.
In this rumored to be free country, cain’t nobody stop you from saying what you want, and you wanna criticize Ruben Amaro, I can’t stop you.
But this reminds me of all the tiresome talk all year long about fire Eddie Jordan. I just got sick of it. Everyone talked about how pathetic a coach he was, but so rare was the time when anyone had an idea as to who they should hire.
I personally just got sick of it.
So my sentiment is this. If you don’t like Amaro’s work, you are boring me. When you name somebody that could do better, you might get my attention. If you think Mike Arbuckle would have been a better choice, why?
It’s nice to see some fresh participation on the board, but all I’m doing is sharing a sentiment that to me, just 1 person, so much of this has been hashed to death, and I wish this team would start scoring some runs, and winning some games so there wasn’t the lure of this stuff.
If others feel differently, and choose to prolong the subject, so be it, but that’s my personal feeling.
Talk about impact…
<<TBS has added Sunday’s Nationals/Indians game (Strasburg’s second major league start) to its schedule, replacing a previously scheduled Phillies/Red Sox matchup. Meanwhile, MLB Network has added the June 18 White Sox/Nationals game (Strasburg’s third start), replacing Red Sox/Dodgers. >>
Blowing off Manny versus a team with natioanl appeal, Boton, and the same Red Sox and the Phils, slump ridden but still with a decent degree of national appeal.
The Cardinals signed Jeff Suppan tonight. Seeking injury depleted help is almost like the ood old boy network of coaches that keeps recycling.
Not that the Cardinals don’t have upcoming financial challenges with Pujols’s alleged financial interests, but its interesting that John Mozelek, or however he spells it goes straight to the scrap heap and resigns old Cardinal blood as opposed to pursuing a trade, which he may have, but went the Cardinal alum route.
Course Suppan could win a dozen games the way Dave Duncan rebuilds pitchers.
I’m also a little intruiged by the amount of conversation that may include Zack Grienke for the deadline. He’s signed through ’12 at 13-14 mil per. Reasonably similar contract to Oswalt, and if you think you can turn his 1-8 season around into last year’s form, at 6 years younger than Oswalt, may be worth the price of a lot compared to Oswalt. Grienke almost has to be terribly frustrated by the losing.
Jeff Suppan: such a Cardinal type move. he and Kyle Lohse could be brothers. boring… guess they’re hoarding the pennies for Bert’s Quinceanera.
KB: i’d bounce the limp Phillies too if I had a walking press conference like Strasburg coming in.
Good news for Moyer: Ortiz & Pedroia are hitting below Mendoza line vs. lefties. Bad news: Youk, Victor & Adrian are pounding portsiders.
Big Paycheck was invalidated by alert tellers Johnson & Nunez in last 2 ABs last night. What happened to April’s go-with-the-pitch approach?
Since being given all behind Monty’s Door Number 1, his individual
and Phillies team performance has declined. The impetuously granted late April contract extension is akin to Stefanski-Iguodala July of ’08 oversecuring of services, except no one pays to see Iguodala play his sport.
Chase Utley is hitting like Denny Doyle when he first came up with the Bowa constrictor. Something’s up with Utley I suspect, whether it be physical infirmity or mental distraction/unrest. Is too sound a hitter to plummet as he has only a third of the way in. His reflexive snort and reply to Barkann’s prompt on Howard’s contract is memorable. And his roaming catch of game-ending fly ball at first base the other night, followed by his plopping of the baseball into a peeved Howard’s mitt was interesting. Mountain out of molehill? Maybe.
Career HRs of some of this weekend’s contestants [for fans of Home Run Derby]: Ortiz 329, Cameron 265, Beltre 258, Howard 232, Drew 222, Ibanez 219, Lowell 219, Varitek 182, Utley 171, Rollins 148, Martinez 119, Hall 109, Youkilis 105, Werth 103, Polanco 95, Dobbs/Gload/Francisco 90
Lackey, Dice-K & Wakefield: solvable yet formidable.
<<Bad decisions to sign mediocre talent to high dollar contracts have hamstrung this team. >>
You referring to the 2008 World champs and the two-time defending Nat league champs, correct? Or am I misinterpreting something?
>>Moreover, would you rather have Raul Ibanez for 3 years/31 million or Adam Dunn for 2/20? They were both available, both lefties, both LF with questionable defense.>>
Now that is laughable. I am in DC and see most Nats games. Nats had no outfielders when Dunn first signed and planned to play him there. He was so bad that they have to move him to first…very fast. He still is horrible there too. Dunn is a huge defensive liability and will only sign another contract in DC or the AL. Ibanez is not a great outfielder but he does not hurt the team. Let me add this nugget too – unlike Howard the guy has hit about 2 meaningful homers in his career. He is renowned for hitting them with he is up 8-2 or down 8-2. And sign Dunn instead of Ibanez a couple years ago, with Howard and Werth already contributing 370 ks per year?
<<These bad contracts will catch up with them.<<
It is the ebb and flow of professional sports. Even the Yanks and Red Sox don’t make the playoofs every year. This isn’t college where you can be USC or Florida and just recruit the best highschool players and reload every year. There are many other factors. In pro sports, you don’t win a title and then trade all your great players for a pile of youth. Why? because you can’t sell that to the paying public. Sure you won’t get “old” but how do you know that youth will pan out? Your can’t trade greatness for possibility. You kinda argue around yourself. You try trading Howard for a 8mill dollar first basement and a good prospect and see the fan reaction. Furthermore, I see no reason why he can’t hit 40 homers and 135 RBIs at age 35.
>>but if you think Howard is so great I suggest you look at the stats of the players also available that year>>
He is hitting .290. I thought that is what all of you wanted!
>>Boston has MUCH more interest in Gonzalez and Fielder than Howard and it is well-documented. ATL has never been linked to Howard and usually doesn’t sign big money guys (remember, they traded Teixeira to LAA in the last year of his deal because they didn’t want to pay him free agency money after trading for him the year before). >>
As Pete likes to say, References please. Alot of hearsay here. Clear you are not a Ryan Howard fan. So be it. But lets stick to facts.
>>His reflexive snort and reply to Barkann’s prompt on Howard’s contract is memorable. And his roaming catch of game-ending fly ball at first base the other night, followed by his plopping of the baseball into a peeved Howard’s mitt was interesting. Mountain out of molehill? Maybe.>>
Good stuff jjg. I didn’t see or hear about this stuff. My guess is even if true nothing that some winning won’t cure. I certainly hope Utley isn’t moping about being paid “only” 15 mill per.
phillyfan-
might want to sub out USC from that recruiting tid-bit. they got CRUSHED. I LOVE IT!
SABR is right about the Sox interest in Gonzalez (well-documented) and potentially Fielder. They absolutely prefer Gonzalez over Howard.
A continuation of power numbers, a reduction in Ks, good fielding maintenance and leadership by example is the expectation for a
premier, handsomely rewarded 1st baseman. Sloppy execution will continue to draw the ire of fans. And that’s not Victoria’s secret.
.290? Let’s stick to the facts please: .289.
Regarding whether you’d prefer to have Adam Dunn or Raul Ibanez, Id take Carlos Beltran over both of them for the stretch of time we’re talking about.
AG is a great player. So after 2010 you will have:
Howard at 25 mill per
Fielder at 20 mill per
AG at 25 mill per
Pujols at 30 mil per.
I am fine with either of the first three. I think you can throw them in a barrell and pick. Fielder doesn’t impress me, certianly a average fielder and baserunning liability. He seems to be running on the coattails of other good firstbasemen a bit. AG seems to be the flavor of the month but he has never smelled a pennant/division race and led his team in August and September. Wait till you have a star on your back and opposing teams are fired up to face you and measure themselves against you – not so much when you are wearing a Padres uni. We will see come late August after Howard is into his tear and carrying the team AGAIN what people think. funny how these discussions about Howard only really occur in the first half of the season. Problem I have with stat geeks is the Phils will win the title again this year and they still will say Howard is overpaid. I guess there can be merit to that argument, but I look at sports from a team concept more I guess. You can’t just plug in and play. It is the impact of our video game culture I guess. Just look at teams like the Cubs and Mets.
not sure you should call AG a “flavor of the month” – he’s been all-star caliber for 5 years, and is an elite defensive player, and it’s not his fault the Padres have sucked.
SABR
<<As for your RyHo comments, the Marlins are not going to pay that (what in their entire history makes you think they will – they traded away a MUCH younger and better player at 1B in Miguel Cabrera so they wouldn’t have to pay him). The Cardinals will re-sign Pujols, but even if they don’t then the Phils look worse because we gave up a chance to get the best player in baseball for a marginal amount of money compared to the Howard deal. Boston has MUCH more interest in Gonzalez and Fielder than Howard and it is well-documented. ATL has never been linked to Howard and usually doesn’t sign big money guys (remember, they traded Teixeira to LAA in the last year of his deal because they didn’t want to pay him free agency money after trading for him the year before). >>
You forget that the marlins will be opening a new stadium and attendence will greatly improve which will add revenue and they’ll
want to make “big name” splash to excite the fans (phils/Thome)
ATL will have Chipper and Glaus off the books and looking for offense, plus Howard has always hit well at both parks. ATL couldn’t afford Tex at the time because of payroll and poor attendence.
Pujols will never sign for less than 30 Mil anywhere, and the payroll structure in Philly is close to the top.
I’m sure that if Howard were on the FA market BOS would be interested. They’ve been more interested in Fielder / Gonzalez because they know that “small market” teams usually have to make changes when players become stars.
for anyone who wants to trade howard in 2012 or beyond…It can be done, if the phils desire to do it. 20 Mil a year will seem like a great deal for a team 3 years from now.
Lot of comments to address. First @ Bob…I am talking about what teams have done, you are talking about your opinion of what teams might do. I would rather work with the facts and adjust if the teams change their behaviors.
@philly fan….I should have said hamstrung the team’s future outlook. And I guess you are the same type of person that says that A-Rod is not clutch either. That changes pretty fast when your team is competitive — they don’t hit HRs when the score is far apart because its so easy, and they don’t put up 40+ HRs every year because they are bad.
And as for batting average, who cares. Howard’s OPS+ is 114 (better than league average but if he wants to be a top 5 1B it has to be over 115…he’s basically hitting a bunch of singles and a few homers this year) and ISO of .179.
I didn’t mean over 115 as if that is the cutoff, btw…he is far from the cutoff…
SABR and Phillyfan-
Let me save you guys a lot of back and forth. You guys aren’t going to agree on much. Like, at all.
Phillyfan is a long time poster, and I know he has little interest in sabermetrics. SABR, clearly from your handle, and your postings so far, you do. Both sides have merit, but I don’t think either side will convince the other of anything in this case.
@philly fan….I should have said hamstrung the team’s future outlook. And I guess you are the same type of person that says that A-Rod is not clutch either. That changes pretty fast when your team is competitive — they don’t hit HRs when the score is far apart because its so easy, and they don’t put up 40+ HRs every year because they are bad.>>
The point about Dunn is he would never have played left field. he is the worst fielder in the major leagues. So there is no Ibanez versus Dunn argument, which you seem to be criticizing RAJ over. If he would have signed Dunn he would have been a laughingstock. We would have had no place to play him after about 30 games and he already had 15 errors in left. He couldn’t play outfield for the NATS, and they had no outfielders. It was too embarrassing. And we certainly would not have moved him to 1st with Howard there.