Since the news of Curt Schilling’s likely career-ending injury, many have speculated as to whether he has the credentials to make it to Cooperstown. Since he is one of the top pitchers in our team’s history, it would make sense for us to make some discussion about it here.
Schilling is the definition of a borderline candidate. A couple dominant years, a couple so-so years. Great post-season success, many big starts, but not quite at the regular season marks that make you a shoo-in.
Here is the bottom line data for his career:
|
IP |
W |
L |
ERA |
WHIP |
K |
K/9 |
|
3261 |
216 |
146 |
3.46 |
1.14 |
3116 |
8.59 |
The biggest number against him are his 216 wins, the biggest for him are his 3,116 strikeouts.
I personally think he should be in, but probably in a Goose Gossage situation where it takes awhile for him to actually get there. Here are a couple basic points to consider:
- Schilling had 6-7 HOF caliber, top-5 pitchers in baseball, years. 1996-98 with the Phils, 2001-03 with D-Backs and 2004 with the Red Sox
- He finished 2nd in the Cy young 3 times, and 4th once and had 6 all-star appearances
- Only 16 players have had 3,000+ strikeouts in their career, Bert Blyleven is the only one that isn’t in (or is a shoo-in) for the hall of fame
- Among the 16, Schilling had the 4th highest K/9 ratio behind Ryan, Unit and Pedro
- Wins are important, but in my opinion, wildly overrated. If he had been playing for a half-decent team during his years at the Phillies, he would have 230-240 wins
- His post-season success helps put him over the edge
If he gets in - this is where the real question comes into play - what hat does he wear? Jayson Stark suggested he might wear a Red Sox hat, which would be an atrocity. ESPN can have it’s love affair with the Yankees, Red Sox and Mets, but if the HOF falls victim to the new, over-bearing, 24-hour sports media and ignores actual history, i’ll be really upset. I personally think he should be the first player to go in with a Diamondbacks hat, because each of his years there was HOF caliber and he got a World Series co-MVP with them. Below you will find his stats by team, in the regular season and post-season.
Regular Season
|
|
IP |
W |
L |
ERA |
WHIP |
K |
K/9 |
|
PHI |
1659.1 |
101 |
78 |
3.35 |
1.12 |
1554 |
8.43 |
|
ARI |
781.2 |
58 |
28 |
3.14 |
1.04 |
875 |
10.07 |
|
BOS |
675 |
53 |
29 |
3.95 |
1.21 |
574 |
7.65 |
Post-Season
|
|
IP |
W |
L |
ERA |
WHIP |
K |
K/9 |
|
PHI |
31 |
1 |
1 |
2.61 |
1.10 |
19 |
5.52 |
|
ARI |
55.1 |
4 |
0 |
1.14 |
0.71 |
63 |
10.25 |
|
BOS |
22.2 |
3 |
1 |
3.57 |
1.24 |
13 |
5.16 |
So what do you guys think? Should he definitely be in? Maybe be in? Not be in? And if he’s in, what hat should he wear?
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{ 10 comments… read them below or add one }
I say Schilling deserves to get in, and I think he will. His career numbers may put him on the fence, but winning two world series titles and the bloody sock will carry enough weight with the voters to get him in.
I’m with you, Pete. I believe wins to be the single most overrated pitching stat. With the way pitchers are used now, a starter has much less control over getting a win. It is now common practice to use two or three relief pitchers in each game. Even though the starter may have earned the win, he now must rely on several other pitchers to secure that win for him. Years ago, when the starters job was to pitch the entire game, it had more validity because he was, more or less, in control for the full nine innings. Back then, for the most part, the starter earned the win or took the loss. He didn’t need anyone else to hold the win for him and he didn’t have a loss hung on him by a poor relief effort.
Nolan Ryan is a classic example of this. His career record is 324-292. I realize 324 wins is a lot, but he’s just barely over .500. Anybody think he doesn’t deserve to be in Cooperstown? Beyond that, if you look at his career year by year you will find that, other than a couple years in the early 70’s when he was with the Angels, Ryan was right around a .500 pitcher every year. It wasn’t like he had eight or ten outstanding years pulled down by six or eight bad years. Win-loss record certainly doesn’t tell Nolan Ryan’s story.
In no way am I saying Curt Schilling is comparable to Nolan Ryan, just that there’s more to Schilling’s resume than wins.
Since there’s no way he’ll be wearing a Phils cap, and I’d hate to see him go in wearing a Red Sox cap, I’m hoping he chooses a Diamondbacks cap.
I don’t know if that last post came across the way I wanted it to. My point was that wins by a pitcher is not a reliable measuring stick of greatness because a win is dependent on many factors beyond a pitcher’s control. I brought Nolan Ryan into it because I feel he should have a lot more than “only” 324 wins.
Regarding the HOF, my point was that many aspects of a player’s performance need to be taken into account when deciding if he is worthy of induction. Even though Schilling only has 216 wins, his winning percentage of .597 is better than Ryan’s .526. Also, Schilling’s WHIP is 1.14, which is better than Ryan’s 1.25. Schilling’s so/walk ratio of 4.38 is markedly better that Ryan’s 2.04. Finally, Schilling had three 20 win seasons, while Ryan only had two. Ryan’s sheer numbers are better due to his longevity, which certainly should be factored in, but you have to be careful with longevity as well.
3000 hits is an automatic ticket to Cooperstown, but should it always be so? What if a guy gets 150 hits for 20 years? That’s 3000 hits, but he’d be hitting around .250(based on 600ab/season). Should a .250 hitter be voted in just because he played a long time and reached a major benchmark? I don’t mean to be stupid, but IF Jamie Moyer pitches long enough to get 300 wins—heck, even if he pitches a few more years and gets to around 260 wins, which isn’t shabby—does he deserve induction into the HOF? I don’t think so.(BTW, Moyer has two twenty win seasons as well.)
Like I said before, you’ve got to look at more than just the numbers. Everything must be considered(I’m sure Ryan’s 7 no hitters helped his resume). So, looking at Schilling in totality, I say he deserves to be voted in.
I think that Schilling should and will be voted into the Hall of Fame. His pitching statistics alone should earn him that honor.
Curt also brought a lot more to the ballpark. Other than a perpensity to sometimes say or do the wrong thing at the wrong time, he was all you could ask for in a ball player:
1. He was intensely competitive and wanted the ball in all of the big games.
2. It was in those big games that he was at his best. This had to instill confidence in his teammates.
3. His preparation for the game was legendary. He studied videos of each batter before the game and knew their strengths and weaknesses.
4. He fielded his position very well.
5. While in the NL, he knew how to handle the bat, especially for sacrifice bunts.
6. On the mound, he was all business - no wasted time. If you ever played behind a slow pitcher or one who walks a lot of batters, you would really appreciate this.
7. Compared to other pitchers of the past 20 years, I would guess that he was in the top 25% of pitchers in just about every category - complete games, innings pitched, strikeouts, walks, fielding, pick off move, holding runners, batting, bunting, etc.
If I sound biased toward Schilling, I admit that I am. I have enjoyed watching Curt pitch over the years and wouldn’t it be great if some of the pitchers of today (Brett Meyers, are you listening?) had some of the desire and intensity that Curt exhibited everytime he was on the mound?
Thank you Curt for playing baseball the way it is supposed to be played!!
Pete, great post as always. Just had a few comments in light of yours and bski’s posts:
1) Wins ARE overrated but even so, 216 is NOT enough. Schill has 71 fewer wins than Blyleven and 38 fewer than Jack Morris, whose Game 7, 10 IP shutout easily trumps a bloody sock
2) I think it’s somewhat contradictory to excuse his low win total by accurately pointing out that games are handed over to relievers and then boast that Schill’s WHIP was lower than Nolan’s. Nolan’s WHIP was higher because he stayed in games and pitched the late innings when he had nothing left in the gas tank. I would love to see a WHIP chart of historical pitcher’s WHIPs by innings (Pete jump on this!). My feeling is that all guys like Nolan had ballooning WHIPS in those late innings that contemporary pitchers don’t pitch anymore. Anyway, it would be an interesting discussion.
3) Schill has won less Cy Youngs than Zito and Gagne–ZERO. I think that is the most damning stat.
4) His record in the postseason is impressive, but that alone shouldn’t make him a HOFer. Robert Horry is not an NBA HOFer and Schill shouldn’t be an MLB HOFer.
But whatever side you’re on, it’s a great discussion.
GARGS: I was only trying to point out several areas where Schilling has better numbers than a guy who, without question, belongs in the HOF. Do you know how many Cy Youngs Ryan has won? That’s right, zero, same as Schilling.
As far as WHIP, I’m sure that Ryan being gassed did contribute to his being higher than Schilling’s. However, I think Ryan’s mentality had a lot more to do with it. Quite simply, he did not give in to any hitter at any time in any situation. The major culprit for his high WHIP is the W. Ryan walked 2795 guys in 5386 innings. That’s 4.67 walks per nine innings(Schilling’s 1.96 walks per 9 innings is considerably better and certainly cannot be attributed entirely to Ryan pitching more innings while tired). Add to that the fact that Ryan only gave up 3923 hits in his 5386 innings and, one way or the other, the guy was literally unhittable. A lot of guys did get on base against him, however.
You brought up some good points and it is very interesting discussing what exactly makes a guy hall worthy. Like I said before, Ryan unquestionably deserves to be in the HOF, but why exactly? 324 wins is a lot of wins, but 294 losses is a lot of losses. Also, he only had two 20 win seasons. 5714 strikeouts is ridiculous, but 2795 walks is equally ridiculous. Also, Longevity played a very big part in him getting his numbers, which begs the question, how much should longevity be factored in? Even with a guy like Ryan, there are cons that go against him, it’s just that the pros outweigh them, albeit by a pretty good margin.
You are right, 216 wins is a pretty low total for the HOF. I guess we’ll see if Schilling has enough pros to outweigh his cons.
We’ve never mentioned Nolan’s seven no-hitters. I heard an interesting stat a few weeks ago (I hope I remember it correctly), but it was that there is only pitcher in the HOF to have never won a Cy Young or thrown a no-hitter–Goose Gossage (who Pete interestingly mentioned in his original post) and Schilling would be the second.
One last point that should help Schilling: If McGwire, Sosa, Palmeiro, and Bonds, DONT get voted in during their first few years of eligibility, the voters might be starved for a good old-fashioned tough as nails, never cheated, work-ethic guy, and if that is the case Schilling would be their poster boy. Could definitely work to his advantage.
Schilling is a marginal hall of fame pitcher and does not belong in the Hall. He pitched a full career and has 216 wins. Please. Not even close unless he’s had his career cut short. There is a horse’s ass Hall of Fame however for which he’d be a first ballot inductee.
Lonny -
Please present more data…
There are 17 starting pitchers in the HOF with less than 216 wins. Not all of them had their career’s cut short. None of them have as many strikeouts as Schilling.
Pete–Want more data? Sure Sandy Koufax (and a few others) had less wins. But EVERY pitcher in the HOF with less wins had a better ERA than Schilling except Eckersley with a 3.50 ERA who was a special case given his split starter/reliever career. By the way, I had lunch with your dad today. Good guy.
Lonny -
I think that your point is exactly what makes this a great debate. You can pull numbers from both ends of the spectrum. He’d have the highest ERA of someone with that many wins, but also the most strikeouts. Do you take into account that his high(er) ERA was generated during an era of unprecedented offense when the others were not?
Yes, he never won a Cy Young, but according to baseball-references’ Cy Young/MVP share calculator (http://www.baseball-reference.com/leaders/mvp_cya.shtml), he’s the best pitcher never to do so. The best hitter to never win an MVP, Eddie Murray, is in the Hall of Fame.
My dad tells me you are a Yankee fan, so I’m not sure you opinion on Schill is exactly non-bias!