October 23, 2014

It’s Done: Roy Oswalt Is A Phillie!

According to Ken Rosenthal, the Roy Oswalt deal to Philadelphia is official and the parameters are as such.

Phillies Get: Roy Oswalt, $11 million

Astros Get: LHP J.A. Happ, OF Anthony Gose, SS Jonathan Villar

In addition, the Phillies raised the contract buy-out for Oswalt next year from $1 million to $2 million.

I will have a full post up on Oswalt hopefully later tonight, but here are my first thoughts…

  • People will say (and rightfully so) that the Phillies by far got the best end of this year. But Happ has shown that he can be a big league pitcher, and a good one. “Bigger” names like Kyle Drabek, Phillippe Aumont and J.C. Ramirez have not. The intrigue of prospects often makes them overvalued in these deals.
  • That being said, the fact we didn’t give up Singleton, Cosart or Colvin is amazing.
  • The fact that we are actually getting A LOT of money from the Astros is shocking.
  • Gose and Villar aren’t big losses to me. Could very well be everyday players, but I personally didn’t see either having star potential.
  • This trade officially makes us the Yankees of the NL – and that does make my stomach hurt JUST a little bit
  • On Oswalt – I think he’s going to be a great addition, I think he’s going to pitch very well, and I think he’s going to like Philly more than he thinks he will.
  • That said, I think it’s important that fans don’t expect Lee or Halladay. We’ve been spoiled the last 2 years, and we need to support Oswalt. I would expect him to be about as good as Hamels has been this year. He’s not quite what he was before, but he’s still very good.
  • Oswalt’s back problems are a concern, but they haven’t caused him to miss long periods of time for awhile, and considering what we gave up for him, it’s a risk you have to take.
  • There are also concerns that his stuff has dropped a little, but I his H/9 and K/9 numbers this year are fantastic. I can’t see him having a big enough drop-off in production next year that would not make this year worth it.
  • “Why didn’t we keep Cliff Lee then” – because that would have given us a super-rotation for 1 year, this gives us one for potentially 2 1/2. That wasn’t the plan, but that’s how it ended up. This shows that the Phillies goal is not to make decisions based on 1 year, but based on several years ahead.  If you can’t let Cliff Lee go now, you should find a new team.
  • We’ve got Roy Halladay, Roy Oswalt and Cole Hamels in our rotation for the next 15 months at least. I can’t tell you how giddy that makes me.

Two kind of important questions…

  1. Uhhh…. can we make the playoffs?
  2. Uhhh…. who is going to close out all these great starts?

No matter. Right now things couldn’t be better. 7-game winning streak. Dom Brown promoted. Roy Oswalt coming to join Doc and Co.

Oswalt will start tomorrow against the Nationals.

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Comments

  1. Stu says:

    swalt confirmed he is flying to DC tonight, will start for Phillies tomrorow. #trades
    I will be at Nats Park. 

  2. bsencore says:

    Wait. “The Phillies of the NL”? How do you say that just two sentences after admitting that we requested a crapload of money back from Houston in this deal?
    If the Yankees did this they would trade $11 mill for Oswalt and pick up his ’12 option.

  3. tk76 says:

    The biggest thing about this trade-
     
    Up against the Yankees last year it seemed as if Halladay was the only pitcher who had a chance.  Now they have two Roy’s that can stand up to an offensive bully.  Three if Hamels is on (which historically is 50:50 in the playoffs.)  Only certain types of pitchers can give you consistent production against elite offensive line-ups.  Here’s hoping Oswalt is one of them.

  4. Stacy says:

    The back problems scare me a little and I’m going to miss Happ but I think I’m looking forward to seeing how this plays out.  If as you say he pitches as well as Hamels has this year, then that’s pretty fantastic.
    Hopefully the crowd at CPB will give him a great a welcome as they gave Brown last night.
     
     

  5. Stacy says:

    that picture of the 3 of them is great, btw

  6. Nick says:

    Gotta give Ruben credit – he finds a way to get things done.

  7. Ruben says:

    So the Phils picked up the option for 2012? If so, then that is the only problem I have against this trade.

  8. Pete says:

    Ruben-

    No, they did not. Did you read that somewhere?

  9. Pat says:

    Ruben-
    I read they are not picking that up but instead added 1 million to the buyout (3 million now). So it is really a steal for the Phillies I think.
     
    Pete-
    Great picture.

  10. Ruben says:

    I just wanted clear it up.

  11. b.ski says:

    Uhhh…. who is going to close out all these great starts?

    Better watch the wisecracks about Lidge, Pete, because Oswalt said Lidge helped him make his decision:

    He said his conversation with Lidge made him confident that he’d chosen the right destination.
    “We played together for seven years and I trust his opinion. He told me that the clubhouse was great and that I was going to love it over there. His opinion means a lot to me,” Oswalt said.

  12. Pete says:

    bski-

    Maybe Oswalt can help him with something Dubee’s not seeing!

  13. b.ski says:

    Dave Cameron at fangraphs has already looked at the trade from our perspective and gives an estimate of the value we should expect to get from Oswalt:
     
     
     
    I’d estimate that Oswalt should give the Phillies about +5 wins of value over the next year and a half. Given their status as a playoff contender on the bubble, the marginal value of a win to their franchise is higher than the league average as a whole. So, while they’re paying about $2 million per win for Oswalt, they’ll be getting something closer to $5 or $6 million per win in on field value, thanks to their increased playoff odds. 

    Overall, Oswalt should add $10 to $15 million in value above and beyond what the Phillies will pay him.
    They got a quality pitcher at a below market price without putting the long term future of the franchise in danger. Kudus to Ruben Amaro for this deal.

  14. b.ski says:

    We can only hope, Pete, because even if Charlie mixes in Contreras or Madson (or even Romero)  here and there, Lidge is who we’ve got and he needs somebody to help him (and, by extension, us).

  15. Drolz says:

    Hey everyone, I haven’t been able to post here for quite a while — wanted to say congrats to Pete and Dannie for the recent milestone with ReclinerGM, and awesome job as always by everyone here including the commenters. Anytime there’s something big going on in Philly sports this is the first place I look. Keep up the great work!

    Am excited to see what happens the rest of the year with Brown and Oswalt. I know its probably asking too much of Brown but I keep thinking of how Bake McBride sparked the team when he joined us midseason in ’77.

    A sidebar: Vance Worley came into the discussion a while ago and for a moment there it looked like he was going to be involved in the Oswalt trade. Worley kind of flew under the radar this year and I don’t know much about him. Can anyone tell me what we can expect from Worley in the near future? We only saw him for one inning but I really liked how he handled it.

  16. Tony says:

    I appreciate that Amaro got max value out of JA Happ in this trade.  If you are going to trade Happ, this was the ideal way to do it.

  17. Ruben says:

    Gose has been sent to Toronto for Wallace.

  18. b.ski says:

    Just read that, Ruben.  Seems like a steal for Wade, although I’ve read that Wallace can’t play 3B all that well (he appears to be limited to 1B or DH if his bat improves) which is why he has been moved around (St. Louis to Oakland to Toronto to Houston) so much in the past year or so.

  19. b.ski says:

    The Nats beat the Braves 5-3 (took 2 out of 3—nice help) so we’re 1/2 game closer.
     
     
    Also, this deal is so good even Keith Law likes it.  I checked in on his chat earlier this afternoon……
     
     

    Rube (Philly)

    Ignore Lee for a second. If I just got Oswalt, had the Astros pay 11 mill of his 23, didn’t have to exercise his option, and only gave up Happ, Worley and Gose, thats not bad, right? Does your take on the trade depend on whether or not Singleton is involved?
    Klaw
    (1:25 PM)

    That’s a pretty good deal for the Phils in terms of players sent/received. If they do this without dealing Cosart, Colvin, Singleton, or May, it’s outstanding.

  20. Ruben says:

    Lets move on to the draftees.

  21. tk76 says:

    Of course Law likes it- isn’t he the one who thinks Happ will be a huge bust.

  22. b.ski says:

    Just saw on mlbtraderumors that the Astros are shopping Berkman.  If they can’t get a deal done it seems like they will buy him out for next year, which is where Wallace comes into play, taking over at 1B.  OK, enough about the ramifications of the deal for other teams.
     
     
    I also saw that Tejada has been scratched for tonight’s game, leading to speculation that he has been traded.  Might he be joining us in DC too?
     
     

  23. Zach says:

    With the soap opera leading up to it, this deal worked out better than I ever would have thought for the Phils. Hopefully it will just add more momentum to this current hot streak. Great job by Ruben here.
    I am still a little nervous about the pen though…

  24. tk76 says:

    If so, they will be another step closer to be like that hated other team in pinstripes.

  25. b.ski says:

    tk76,
     
     
    You’ve got it.  From the same chat transcript:
     
     
     

    Sam (Corpus Christi)

    Keith, should Astros fans be happy with a package centered around Happ and Singleton for Oswalt?
    Klaw
    (1:21 PM)

    I wouldn’t be happy to see my GM acquire Happ, since it would be a pretty strong indication that he doesn’t understand his ballpark.
     
     
     

    Jason (St Louis)

    No doubt about Happ. How many homeruns do you think he’ll give up to LF at home? is 40 outside the realm of possibility?
    Klaw
    (1:24 PM)

    No, that’s about right.
     
     
     
     
    I posted the previous comment because I couldn’t believe he had something good to say about us.

  26. Ruben says:

    Tejada would have been part of the deal if he was traded to us. Why make 2 separate trades?

    “If so, they will be another step closer to be like that hated other team in pinstripes.”

    I like it when fans from other teams hate us.

  27. The Other Stu says:

    From the mid-season prospect report re: Gose:
    When Will We See Him? I’m not sure we ever will see him in a Phillies’ uniform. Of the top-5 guys, he’s the only one I could see the Phillies trading in a big deal.
     
    Nice call, Pete.

  28. tk76 says:

    Between Gose and Bourn, we are sending all of our baby burners to the Phils farm club in Houston.

  29. tk76 says:

    Phillies news:
     
    In the last week the team called up Dom from AAA, and called up Oswalt from their other minor league affiliate.  To make room on the roster, Happ had to be sent back down.
     
    …I’m even starting to sound like a Yankee’s fan.  The rest of the league is just our feeder clubs.  we even place our former executives their to help oversee player development and facilitate “call-ups.”

  30. jkay says:

    tk76: yeah i sort of feel the irony….
    BUT feels good to be a winner right!

  31. tk76 says:

    In the immortal words of Croce, It feels great!
     
    But I don’t get as much out of it as some, because I bailed on the team after the Strikes and am now a fair weathered fan… who no longer lives in the area.  I get more joy out of relative successes out of the Eagles and Sixers (or at least I assume i will in the Sixers case- if they ever are good.)

  32. b.ski says:

    Wow, Amaro is even getting praise from Rob Neyer:
     
     
     
    And finally (I mean it this time), another word about the Phillies. Remember when everyone was saying how foolish they were for trading Cliff Lee last winter? Well, they traded Cliff Lee because they thought they could stock their farm system without seriously damaging their chances for another National League pennant. 

    Be honest … Did you think they were wrong at the time? I didn’t. I had the Phillies winning their division this year, and so did almost everybody else. 

    It didn’t quite work out that way. So they’ve adjusted, and instead of having a great chance of winning with Cliff Lee in 2010, they’ve got a great chance of winning with Roy Oswalt in 2010 … and in 2011

    Is there a smarter, more effective front office in the National League right now?

  33. Tony says:

    Oswalt is 56-16 with a 2.19 ERA in August, September and October.

  34. phillyfan says:

    this 9th inning is troubling.  What a way to put a downer on a great day and great winning streak. 2-2 and bases are loaded with 1 out.  And it isn’t even Lidge.

  35. philly says:

    Guys-
    Who do you think the 2nd best starting pitcher on this team is?

  36. b.ski says:

    Tough win.  Glad we got it.  Wasn’t looking too good for a while there.  We had to get it when we did because Baez was warming up for the 12th.
     
     
    Before I say goodnight I’d like to congratulate Amaro once more for getting Oswalt and remind him that his work is not done yet.  Now I’d like to quote my good friend Pete and ask him, Uhhh…. who is going to close out all these great starts?, because nothing seems to be working out all that well (although Lidge did have a nice clean 10th).

  37. Ken Bland says:

    Really nice team win tonight, capped by the bench players, Valdez and Ransom.  And I’m sure the clubhouse felt like a team and looks forward to greeting Roy O tomorrow night.  I would imagine he’s excited to meet his new teammates, and off the heels of some clubhouse unity inspired by D Brown’s entry through the walkway last night, we leave this homestand in fired up mode.

    One of my questions for the forthcoming weekend will be a comparison to the Opening week of the season.  If you remember, we seemed to have more fans in the stands that the home team nats.  Perhaps Roy O gets a preview of a nice welcome for tomorrow night.  Based purely on gut feel, I’m not sure how well he’ll pitch tomorrow night.  I know he’s not going 5-0 with an 0.82 ERA, equalled by the last 2 aces the Phils acquired.

    We’re now overweight from the right hand side on starting pitching, but despite the Yanks last year, it’s still better to be overweight right than left, and with the quality of our starters, ain’t no thang.  But I believe Cole will follow the Roys rather than be sandwiched once Charlie can set things up.  Personally, I would line it up by best down, and that’s what I think Charlie and Rich will do.

    We have a shot at catching the Braves and passing them this weekend.  The week has been so perfect thus far.  Things are looking really nice, and it’s about time.  Maybe another personnel change to feel good about before it’s over also.

    Nice 8-0 homestand.  A year ago, we were all wondering why they couldn’t win at home.  It’s a good change.

  38. Ken Bland says:

    Who do you think the 2nd best starting pitcher on this team is?>>

    Roy Oswalt.  It’s pretty obvious.  If it becomes a debate on the board, I’ll offer my reasons.

    ************************************************************************

    <<Oswalt is 56-16 with a 2.19 ERA in August, September and October.>>

    Tony,
    I never participated in the Dan Haren discussions because I didn’t think we’d seriously pursue him unless Oswalt was actually dealt elsewhere and thus never mentioned this.  Not only is Oswalt excellent in the 2nd half, but Haren is much better in the first half. 

    *************************************************************************

    <<I keep thinking of how Bake McBride sparked the team when he joined us midseason in ‘77.>>

    What a freaking ripoff that was.  We gave up Tommy Underwood, I guess, and Bake was so good, and so well rounded.  Kudos plus to the Pope on that deal.   

    *************************************************************************

    from Rob Neyer, courteousy b.ski…is there a smarter, more effective front office in the National League right now?>>

    Intelligent minds know to wait until 4 Eastern on Saturday before answering that.

    *************************************************************************

    Other,
    Nice acknowledgement on Gose scouting report by Pete.  Nailed it to a tee.

    ************************************************************************

    from tk

    <<Up against the Yankees last year it seemed as if Halladay was the only pitcher who had a chance.>>

    That’s funny, tk, I had to smile at that.  I’m sure everyone caught it, but I will mention that last year, Halladays’s name was Lee.

  39. Ken Bland says:

    Just saw on mlbtraderumors that the Astros are shopping Berkman.  If they can’t get a deal done it seems like they will buy him out for next year, which is where Wallace comes into play, taking over at 1B.  OK, enough about the ramifications of the deal for other teams.>>

    One point.  When they dump Berkman, they will have a payroll of 30 million.  Those fans are going to have to be incredibly patient.
     

  40. tk76 says:

    Ken, then are the same pitcher to me :)  I loved watching Lee pitch, and Roy1 is much the same in his efficient approach.  Call it a Phruedian slip…