I’m not sure what would be worse. Losing tonight. Or hearing people over-analyze this series until next spring.
The 5-game series in the MLB playoffs is a fickle, fickle thing. Over 162 games, teams are only separated by a couple wins and losses, and then the best teams are determined by shrinking that down to a 5-game sample size where one lucky game or bounce or inning can determine an entire season and games are played in conditions completely different from regular season (3 to 4 man rotations, starters in the pen, different start times, etc…).
This article summed it up well. Here are a couple quotes from it.
The most dominant team in a generation, the 116-win 2001 Seattle Mariners, did not even reach the World Series. Reaching the playoffs once, no matter how your team is, is buying a lottery ticket. Reaching the playoffs often – like six times in seven years – is like being the house in blackjack. Eventually, over time, the odds dictate you’ll win.
The most famous/infamous take on the postseason came from Billy Beane, the famous/infamous general manager of the Oakland Athletics. In Moneyball, he said, “My job is to get us to the playoffs. What happens after that is [expletive] luck.”
But the reality is, the smaller the sample, the more randomness there is. That said, it’s not a complete crapshoot. There are certain types of teams that tend to do a little bit better. There are certain elements of the game that are emphasized. It’s not determined by luck. It’s determined by how you play. – Theo Epstein
Now – this is not to say that if the Phillies get blown out tonight, or even win, they are completely absolved. But it does mean that if they lose, we don’t have to spend the whole off-season talking about what failures they are and how we need to re-vamp the team. But we will cross that bridge IF we come to it.
The bottom line is – the Phillies need to find a way to win tonight.
It is certainly set up for them to do it. They have Roy Halladay on the mound, who retired 21 straight after giving up a HR to Lance Berkman in Game 1. They are at home, where the crowd will be loud and motivated.
Here is what needs to happen. It’s quite simple really.
Halladay needs to hold the Cardinals to 2 runs or less, and our struggling offense needs to scrape together 3 or more. Real simple. If one or the other doesn’t happen, I think we will have a hard time winning.
Do I think it will happen? I don’t know. I predicted a Game 5 at the start of the series, and predicted a Phillies victory, but now that we are here, I’m a little less confident. I think that the Phillies offense will struggle to get runs off of a fully-rested Chris Carpenter and the Cardinals have enough hot batters to get to Halladay a bit, no matter how good he is.
Gun to my head, I’ll take the Phillies with the hope that the home crowd energizes the offense and SOMEONE comes up with a big HR.
No matter what, it’s going to be most nerve-racking game we’ve had in awhile, knowing that victory means a very winnable 7-game series against the Brewers or DBacks, and a loss means months of second-guessing and wondering if/when we can get back.
This is your game thread – feel free to comment here and try your best to keep it rational!
Quotes flinch from acme authority since Cpt. John Henry is preparing to throw Epstein off his yacht, The Iroquois, http://www.powerandmotoryacht.com/megayachts/2007-america-megayacht-iroquois/, metaphorically speaking of course, following 2 straight playoff misses. This morning on WEEI radio, JH: “I think there’s a certain shelf life in these jobs. You can only be the manager, the general manager, if you’re sane, for a certain amount of time. It’s a pressure cooker here. It’s a long season. It’s 365 days. Theo is not going to be the general manager forever.” [Boston Herald]
Sod’s Law is quite simple too: toast will always land butter side down. Phillies are the better team – just not now. Will white towels and decibels lift them to necessary level? Maybe. This one’s tough to call. I wonder where the money is?
“A baseball game is simply a nervous breakdown divided into nine innings.” – Earl Wilson
Tigers beating Yankees certainly doesn’t hurt the Cardinals’ psyche. Flip side, serves as cautionary example, steels Phils’ resolve.
Earl Wilson has nothing on me – I’ve been having a nervous breakdown all week.
Go Phils! Go Halladay! Hopefully they can turn it back on tonight.
That’s entertainment! Hooray for “Hollywood,” star, and Ben, extra; both, series extenders. Edge-of-seat baseball. 6 1/2 hours to relax. Imagine how participants feel.
Ryan Howard, the Big Paycheck, last 3 playoff series – CIN, SF, STL:
13 G 55 PA 48 AB 12 H 23 K 2 R 1 HR 6 RBI 13 TB (team record: 7-6)
I am amazed at the venom that goes Howard’s way. I am convinced people think that since he earns 20 mill per year, then he has to produce every single game.
He has had two good games and two bad games…deal with it. That is actually pretty darn good. Few players deliver every single game. And furthermore, that means he has had a better overall performance than at least half the lineup in this series.
I try and shy away from the race thing but sometimes I wonder. Is there anyone who earmed his paycheck less than Mr. Cliff Lee? Yet everyone just seems to shrug and move on to place that microscope on Howard’s next at bat. If we lose this series, it falls directly on Cliff Lee’s shoulders in my mind. 4 should be enough “for what we are paying him.”
Texiera and A-Rod did NOTHING for 5 of 5 games and they aren’t catching the heat Howard is catching. And that is New York. I am listening to national radio and they are catching some heat, but not like Howard is from his own town.
Are you kidding? New York fans have been all over A-Rod. They were booing him profusely during the Detroit series.
And Arod has done NOTHING all year. Are you one of those who gives Cliff Lee a free pass.
Howard basically won Game 1, and he ws a huge contributor in setting up Lee to win another game.
I see you scream on here about Howard constantly, what you say on Lee?
You are the only person in the entire city who thinks Cliff Lee isn’t great. The only one.
So one of your favorite players, whom you’ve frequently touted as special, Babe Ruth-ian even, is criticized for continual postseason underperformance (with confirming statistics provided), and you raise the issue of race. Weaker than a Howard flail at a lefthander’s breaking ball.
For Phillies fans looking for hope, I think it is proper to put this pitching matchup on context. Look closely at some of the numbers below.
Chris Carpenter has an ERA of 3.45 and a WHIP of 1.25 puts him solidly in the middle of the pack as far as major league pitchers in recent couple years – in this pitching ERA. HE would be a 3rd-starter on the Giants, Brewers, Zona, Phils – you get the idea. In fact, statistically, this is his worse year since 2002 when he was a no-name pitcher for Toronto. Chris Carpenter has not had a good year as an “ace”. Has he won a Cy Young? yes, but 6 years ago.
He has received alot of mileage from a dominant start last week against Houston – I repeat, against Houston. But Phillyfan, he has a great Sept and he is hot right? Well yes and no. He pitched great against the uniterested Brewers and Phils and Houston, and laid eggs against those juggernauts the Reds and Pirates. In a word, he has been inconsistent and never really has found a groove all year.
Furthermore, Chris Carpenter is 36 years old – no spring chicken and has never been a standout pitcher in the playoffs. While 5-2 in the playoffs, the stats suggest he has benefited from offensve support. In 10 career starts, he has a 3.38 ERA and a 1.32 WHIP (Yikes!)
Chris Carpenter is aging, had a mediocre year, pitched more innings than anyone in the league, and has never had great playoff success as someone who has shut down the opposition. Roy Halladay is in Cy Young form and argulably the best pitcher in the major leagues, right now. HE has proven himself in the playoffs. At this moment, he dwarfs Chris Carpenter. We should be able to scrape out at least 3 against him.
This may not be of great solace to us, because we know this phils lineup can be shut down by 3rd starters any night also. But front my standpoint, I would rather be facing CC than Kennedy, Guallardo, or even H Garcia.
So these are two Cy Young winners going against eachother, but in title only. This is a mismatch
“Dwarfs” is wishful thinking. “Edges out” more like it in my opinion. Both are capable 14 yr. horses.
Well they are certainly both capable. Put it this way then. Carpenter and Oswalt basically were equivalent this year. I think Halladay decisively “edges out” Oswalt.
Just a nugget here.
If you do the moneyline you currently have to bet 175 to win 100 on the PHils. Last night it was 155 to win 100. Smart (later) money coming in on the Phils to pull this out. -175 is a very prohibitive favorite, more than the Yanks were favored lat night.
Interesting. I guess oddsmakers minimized Cards 8-5 competitive advantage this year.
Pete, I don’t know how you can misunderstand my point. I DO think Lee is great. That isn’t the point. Lee failed. that is my point. Even the great ones fail in baseball. Even Pujols only deliver the RBI with RISP 3 out of every 10 trys.
What I can’t accept is that in the case of Lee, fans seem to understand that. In the case of Howard they don’t. I am not even trying to argue that Howard is great. It is just all common sense stuff if you have any understanding of the game.
Just be consistent – if you are going to rip highly paid players when they fail. Rip all of them, don’t just pick and choose which ones.
Three points that you will not care to understand because they don’t jive with your personal ongoing narrative…
C’mon Pete. BABIP is an interesting stat, but from what I was watching, those hits were not dribblers. They were making solid contact. Lee averages about 92 on the fastball. His margin for error is very small. What makes a pitcher great isn’t that hitters happen to hit to fielders more than other pitchers. Come, on…the difference between Halladay and say Blanton isn’t just luck. Pitchers will tell you it is their location that cause those hits to go where they go. Lee must have location to be effective.
What I am saying is he wasn’t faking out hitters. You can watch him when he is on or Halladay and they can go most of a game and not give up a real hard hit ball, or just a few. I think that is how they measure their own quality. Lee even said he wasn’t on like he needed to be…a.ka. location. BABIP partly reflects luck, but also is higher when the pitcher is “off”.
I don’t care about people hating Howard. I don’t necessarily think Howard is great and I don’t remember posting that at all recently. I just want to be fair. Everyone can quickly forgive Lee for a lousy start because they consider it through his overall body of work. Through that lense, he is a great pitcher, who had one bad start. When talking about Howard, they choose to only look at the last 2 games and won’t even consider the last 4, let alone the past 3-5 years. In the series, his average with RISP is right where it would expected. And it is driving in runs that he is getting paid for IMO.
As easy as one poster can post Howard stats in the playoffs the last 3 years, I could post Lee’s stats in the playoffs the last 3 starts…and that wouldn’t be pretty either.
Reminder: stats posted are last 2 yrs, ’10 & ’11 post-seasons. Correction: 19 total bases.
>>He was the 3rd best hitter on our team this year (behind Victorino and Pence) and is being paid like the 3rd best hitter in all of baseball. >>
And by the way, THAT is getting very very old too. Howards pay is not on howard, that is on RAJ. Howard didn’t come here as a FA demanding that salary or threaten to leave town if he didn’t get his contract renewed. He never has been a prima dona. It was presented to him at the initiative of ownership. This isn’t a Arod situation or typical like that. To direct venom at Howard becasue he is getting paid 20 mill and isn’t worth it fine, but shouldn’t it be directed at RAJ. It makes those who do that seem very childish. RAJ made a misjudgement – its on RAJ.
I agree that the playoffs are a crapshoot, but historically the 5-game series has been no more of a crapshoot than the seven game series. BTW, I think Doc will go the distance and win 1-0.
http://theresastatforthat.blogspot.com/2011/10/mlb-playoffs-is-1st-round-really.html
I think every time Chase Utley gets hit by a pitch, TLA curses like a sailor.
Victorino and Ibanez the only two with good ABs so far tonight after 4 innings…
damn Molina is good. On a freaking curveball too
Don’t know why we keep thinking we can run on him. Just stupid by Utley.
I’d like to see a replay on that tag.
… a nervous breakdown you say; think we’re getting there.
tick-tock-tick
this is the one situation that Howard does not need to hit a home run or extra bases. just get on base. Charlie can pinch run for him if he does.
they just HAD to play the Rocky theme huh.
No clue why Howard got green light there.
3-0 swinging in a 1-0 game when you aren’t swinging well. Great job Howard.
Carpenter actually laughed at him
that was a nervous laugh as in “Whew, I got away with one there.” You don’t actually believe he was laughing at him.
Ha – yeah, the guy pitching the shut-out vs. the guy who is 0-13.
Support that narrative all you can big guy.
oh stop it. Howard missed a home run by about 1/10 of an inch. Carpenter knew it.
put that on Charlie there, especially with Vic on deck.
uggh ryHo
2 innings and will have the top with a chance. Just hold ‘em and give the bats 2 chances to get 1 run.
Question: Runner on 2nd and 2 outs, what Phillie would you want most at the plate in that situation? What Phille do you think would actually get the job done?
Victorino is really the only option for me… maybe Rollins…
rollins right now
wow – looks like the pressure has finally gotten to them. bad decisions all over the place.
HUGEEEE!!!!!!!!!!! DOC!!!!!!!!!!!!!
If we get out of this inning we win this game
wow – at worst we have top of the order in the 9th.
Gutsy
burn this image in your heads philly fans, if we win this game it was on the back of ONE guy
127 PITCHES – ALL HEART
kinda. unfortunately the First inning matter as much as all the others. Tonight we needed a shutout (so far).
perhaps he should hit a 2 run homer next time then.
with this pitiful offense that is what he needs to do I guess
Whew, way to get out of that Roy. NOW PICK HIM UP HITTERS!
how many easy rollers to short and second do we need to see?
wow – what a play. sometimes you just have to tip your hat I guess.
Well Ryan gets a final chance – again.
hahahaha good one.
Damn it, Cards getting every bounce.
wow – we are snake-bitten too – very lucky play on the rollins grounder
if we go in order howard will make the last out again. My guess is nobody will remember the outs Utley and Pence would make.
Wow – just as an aside – Dick Stockton is the worst announcer out there. Time for the assisted living facility
Well, hopefully he hits a HR then
lol
Dear Ryan Howard
Baseball fans are quite fickle with memory, with one hit here, all your transgressions will be forgiven. All it takes is one. ANY hit you like. Ask Reggie Jackson how he became Mr. October. It only takes one sometimes. You are being handed an opportunity. Don’t fuck it up.
Sincerely
Hyper-ventilating Fan.
so who really thinks charlie should pinch hit for howard?
No one, we just don’t want him to go 0-15.
Just off the end of the bat there. Damn.
this is good stuff
at least he didnt strikeout again
gettem next year guys. 3 hits – nice work
well then….
Gentlemen it’s been fun
(ohh someone is gonna write that that was a flop by Howard.)
Cards were good. They were real good!
Alright then. Try it again for another 162 after a lot of reflection and questions.
a colossal disappoinment. there is no postive spin on this
CONGRATULATIONS TO THE ST. LOUIS CARDINALS
they earned this. they played better and hustled. they won it.
I can finally praise them because the Phils disgust me right now.
0-3-2. I still can’t believe that line score from a vet club that has been here before.
Really don’t even know how you fix what just happened. This team has enough solid to very good hitters to produce more than they did, yet one slump and your season is over, even with all the talent in the world. Baseball kinda sucks like that.
last post here.
Most frustrating is that with a second wild card next year it is hard to conceive they don’t make the playoffs again. But what a long 6 months of baseball to travel through to get to a meaningful game again.
After sobering up I have decided to look at this from a rationale standpoint. Listen im just as pissed off and frustrated as anyone… how could you not be. This team has offensive flaws obvisouly, which we all knew all season. (Im looking at you Ibanez, Polanco, Howard, Bench) Their plate approach all season especially this series was mind boggigling for the most part. I was very dissapointed with Charlie and the way he approached the games. No line up changing despite the lack of sucsess…. keeping Polanco in all 5 games despite the fact he was usless due to inury. Your gonna tell me Michael Martinez couldn’t have done more then Polanco over a 5 game period. Also it was inexcusable to give Howard the green light on a 3-0 count. The main reason the Cardinals won was becuause they had the far better plate approaches and discipline. They got the absolute most runs they could have possibly gotten off of Cliff Lee and Oswalt due to their patience and timely hitting… something we seriously lack. His refusal to play any small ball and lay down any bunts is baffling.
Pete and Dannie, and everyone else…. I can understand are offensive production going down with our offensive starters age getting up there…. but why the change of plate approach recently? We have always been more of a home run hitting ball club but we used to have so many better at bats due to patince… does stupitidy come with age.. I thought it was the other way around.
My positive take- Over a 162 game period we won 102 games… an incredible accomplishment even given our high (and deservedly so) expectations. A crucial part of the season was when we went on our 8 game loosing streak. Charlie thought it was important to go in with a winning streak and we swept the Braves. I thought it was commendable that we played all 162 games and fought to the finish. However I did not want to sweep the Braves because the Cardinals were the absoulete worst nightmare matchup for us. We decided to do the more respectable and commendable thing and it backfired. Lets face it… after 162 games a 5 game series to decide who goes to the NLCS is a crapshoot for the most part. The team that is the hottest going into the postseason and has been playing playoff baseball for the last month often makes the run. It sucks but its true.
Last point I wanted to make was Howard injury on the last play. So many fans questionsed the seriousness right after it happened and none of his teamates came out to check on him. That was pretty dissapointing… I know he sucked and im pretty much done defending him but damn he tore his achilles.