Jay Wright and Villanova: The Start of Something Big

Villanova is off to a 6-0 start to their season. They are ranked 20th in the country. They are one of six teams, along with UNC, UCLA, West Virginia, Louisville and Memphis, to make the Sweet Sixteen in 3 of the last 4 years. Things are good on the Main Line, but there is a good chance they will get a lot better. In fact, probably better than people in the area realize.

The team Jay Wright has right now, combined with the players he has committed to him for 2009 and 2010, has more talent than any other team in the Big East, and arguably any other team in the nation aside from North Carolina and Duke. Better than big east powerhouses UConn, Louisville, Georgetown and Syracuse, better than national powerhouses Kansas, UCLA and Michigan St. and right on par with recent Final Four participants Florida, Texas and Memphis.

Of course, I can’t just come out and say this an expect people to take it seriously. So, let’s look at the team Jay Wright has assembled, and the players he has coming in and compare them to the rest of the Big East and the nation.

For those who don’t follow recruiting, basketball recruits are generally catergorized by stars. A 5-star recruit is someone who would have likely considered going pro had the NBA age-limit not been put in place. Only 25 players are given this rating every year. A 4-star player usually will be an above average player with a chance to be star at a big conference school. There are 75 of these players every year. A 3-star player is someone who likely can do something well (shoot, rebound, etc…), but needs some development to make an impact in college. There are a couple hundred of these players every year. Everyone else falls into the 2-star category. These are usually players recruited by mid-majors.

Obviously players can underachieve or overachieve once they reach college, but the teams with the most talent, more often than not, tend to be the ones cutting down the nets in March. Let’s look at what kind of talent Villanova is looking at for the next couple years (i.e., everyone but the seniors). Star ratings are taken from Rivals.com.

One Year of Eligibility Left

G Scottie Reynolds, Jr.    
G/F Reggie Redding, Jr.   
F/C Casiem Drummond, Jr.    

F Antonio Pena, Redshirt So.   
G Corey Fisher, So.   
G Corey Stokes, So.   

Three Years of Eligibility Left

G/F Taylor King, Redshirt Fr.   

Four Years of Eligibility Left

F/C Maurice Sutton, Redshirt Fr.    
G Maalik Wayns, HS Sr.,   
F Mouphtaou Yarou, HS Sr.,   
F Isaiah Armwood, HS Sr.,   
G James Bell, HS Jr.,   

So the 12 players that Nova has committed to play for them for 2009 and beyond have an average of 4.08 stars. Their 2009 freshman class (Wayns, Yarou and Armwood) is currently ranked as the 3rd best class in the country and Nova is a finalist for 5-star shooting guard Dominic Cheek as well. If Cheek commits, they would likely have the #1 overall class. 

I claimed earlier that Nova had more talent for the future than any other Big East squad. I said this because I did this analysis for every single Big East team, and the results are as follows:

You could argue that Louisville, with 11 4-5 star players has more talent, but they have a headstart on the 2010 class (3 players committed already) and will likely have more players than Nova leaving early for the NBA.

How about the non-conference teams I mentioned earlier? How does Nova’s talent match up?

As you can see, Villanova will soon have the talent to be considered one of top programs in the country. And unlike the Foye, Ray and Lowry squad, the upcoming teams will have more depth down low with Pena, Yarou, Armwood and Sutton. Yarou in particular is a player Nova has not had in years. He is a 6′9”, physical low-post scorer. Rivals.com has him listed as the 14th best prospect in the country, and says that he is the best pro prospect coming into the Big East next year. 

Even though a Big-5 team has reached the NCAA tournament in every year of it’s existance, the city has not seen a Final Four team since Villanova won the National Championship back in 1985. The upcoming Villanova squads will have a chance to change all that. Like the 2002 class of Foye, Ray, Sumpter and Fraser, the 2009 class of Wayns, Yarou, Armwood, and hopefully Cheek, is an elite group of talent. But, with the 2002 class, Fraser and Sumpter both were injured and they never played together at full strength. Hopefully, things will be different for this class. 

If Fisher and Stokes stay for 4 years, expect the 2010 Villanova squad to start the year off in the Top-5 and be a National Championship contender with this potential line-up:

G Corey Fisher, Sr.   
G Maalik Wayns, So.,   
G Corey Stokes, Sr.   
F Mouphtaou Yarou, So.,   
F Antonio Pena, Sr.   

Bench: G/F Taylor King, Jr. , F Isaiah Armwood, So., , F/C Maurice Sutton, So.

If that happens, it’s safe to say that this caliber of talent has never taken the floor for Villanova in the past. Foye, Ray and Sumpter were 4-stars, and Fraser and Lowry were 5-stars, but this team would look a lot more like the UNC and Florida teams that knocked them out. 

Jay Wright is quietly building a potential juggernaut on the Main Line. He’s proven he can develop talent, and that his teams will always play tough and be defensive minded. Now, he’s recruiting high-level talent with consistency and it looks like Nova will be up with UConn, Louisville, Georgetown, Pitt and Syracuse at the top of the Big East for some time to come. 

December 1, 2008