It’s impossible to make a definitive statement in the NL Cy Young race (gotta focus on something – since there clearly isn’t a division race) – but even though Cliff Lee has had two of the best months in MLB history, Roy Halladay has been every bit as good as last year, and Cole Hamels has officially broken out, Clayton Kershaw still holds a slight lead in a race that will come down to these last couple starts.
Here are the stats:
And the rankings:
how convenient to leave out road performance. We’ll see how many actual voters do that. Not to suggest it’s a prime factor, but I doubt it’s totally ignored.
Interesting that the “advanced” metrics favor Halladay. I guess it depends how you slice the Pie who s actually winning too. Kershaw and Halladay lead in an equal number of the metrics in Pete’s chart(5). Kershaw has the lead in starts, innings pitched, ERA, K’s, and K/9. Halladay leads in walks ( meaning he has the fewest), has the best K/BB ratio, the most WAR, and the best FIP and SIERA. I’d be inclined to not put as much weight in Kershaw’s lead in starts and IP, because he only has 3 more IP despite having 1 more start. The ERAs are so close between Halladay, Lee, and Kershaw that I’d basically throw that out. Kershaw has a solid lead in K’s, but walks more guys than Halladay. Halladay leads are all in what I would consider to be high value categories. Also worth nothing that Lee does not finish lower than 3rd in any category except losses, which isnt something I’d pay much mind to.
Long story short, I think it depends on how deeply the voters look into the stats, and which ones they value over others. Makes for an interesting discussion one way or the other though.
Another opinion concurring that at this time, the order of the top 3 figures as Cliff, Doc, Kshaw.
http://espn.go.com/mlb/features/cyyoung
S, IP, ERA, W-L, WHIP, K/BB: enough to conclude when the time comes. “Advanced” stats could as easily be called “picayune” or “O-C” ones. Looks like a clean 3-horse race comin’ down the backstretch.
“Halladay on the rail, snortin’ and cavortin’; Kershaw, stride for stride, ears tucked back, eyes on the prize; Lee comin’ up on the outside, looks fresh oats-happy … .”
Im sure most voters share this attitude towards the newer metrics. I dont blame them. The people over at fangraphs, etc tend to be snooty towards outsiders, and it can take a lot of effort to figure out what all the wierd abbreviations mean. Doesn’t mean they’re worthless though.
At any rate, in this case i was really just throwing some thoughts out there about the numbers, and i’d probably agree that there is not a clear leader right now.
By the way, just noticed that young Freddy Galvis turned in some respectable offensive numbers this year, and apparently was on a bit of a tear through the end of the year. Nice to see that. From everything I’ve heard he has a major league glove but had been unable to hit to save his life. Even if we do re-up on Jimmy, it helps to have that depth in the system as insurance against injury.
Is Cy voting often regional like Heisman voting? Meaning will the Phils pitchers end up splitting the votes and make it easier for the lone West Coast guy to win?
This is what I know about CY voting, for what it’s worth.
Writers are the voters. The voting populous rotates, assigned different awards each year by the BBWAA. They vote for 3 candidates. MVP voters select 10 candidates. East coast writers are definitely effected by the convenience of time zone, and while this is obviously not guaranteed, swayed to the familiarity card. They’ll have seen the Phils pitchers probably a lot more times than they will Kershaw. They can look at all the stats they want, but somewhere in the psychology of it, familiarity, common sense wise, is a help to the east coast guys.
Regarding the possibity of split, I’d think that most effects the writers following the team itself, and I think that’s just 2 people. So while I am offering some minimal insight into the process here, I’d say the split theory might very possibly be an Aesop’s Fables tale. People in the game, in the process, might discredit that thinking, but out of town writers, constituting about 95% of the vote are probably more neutral than the supposedly 2 people that rub elbows with these guys would be. Doc might have preference from the Toronto guys, and his AL East background, but again, it’s more psychological.
It’s the influence of being able to follow a guy by convenience of time zone that is probably a factor.
But it’s small compared to the wealth of data that they will have as a source. Now which data they choose to look at, and prioritize is tough to say. Particularly since some seemingly important stats have a formation of siamese triplets among the 3 guys.
We still may be surprised by the spread of the vote. The field was pretty tight last year around end of August, maybe into early September. Doc finished strong, and won unanimously, which suggests it wasn’t close. With minimal sparation between the 3 leaders now, it seems tight. One guy throwing 4 gems in a row still could make him a pretty obvious first choice, and make the vote the closeness that is a distant memory.
I’m fairly sure that voters assigned the respective categories cannot talk about their vote from time of assignment to the announcement. So any writer offering an opinion between the recent past, and when the award’s announced is not a person of direct weight.
84% of CLee’s innings have been scoreless. Highest since 85% by Pedro in 2000. Beckett 2nd this yr with 82.4%.
And for the record, Doc dwarfs CK with road results, his ERA is a half run lower.
BAA into 9/9
CK .214
Cliff .227
Doc .246
OPS against
CK .566
Doc .591
Cliff .599
Mama, Don’t Let Your Babies Grow Up To Be AL Pitchers:
AL NL
Sabathia ERA 3.62 1.65
ERA+ 122 255
Santana ERA 3.22 2.85
ERA+ 141 144
Halladay ERA 3.43 2.46
ERA+ 134 162
Lee ERA 3.88 2.73
ERA+ 111 146
When you want to save a piece on Grag Maddux, there’s no better place to save it than in a CY thread.
http://nybaseballdigest.com/?p=39531
I would guess that 15-year ML “frontiersman” brother Mike, 5 yrs older, should get credit for some of Greg’s poise and mastery.
Well. you would think so. But of all the pieces I’ve read about Maddux’s ascent to the top, the only guy I remember him giving a lot of credit to was some guy who straightened him out after 2 pretty bad major league initial seasons. Maybe Dick Pole is the name I’m thinking of, and I can’t remember even if it was something tangible or psychological. I always thought Mike Maddux might close out his career in stronger fashion, figuring he might learn from Greg after he got it going, but that never materialized to any great extent. Mike appears to have developed a rep as a helluva pitching coach, either from his own experience, or in part maybe learning from Greg.
It was Spahn and Marichal that battled in an historic game of 16 innings once that was a topic of discussion on this site a bit back, subject being most pitches thrown in a game. When those 2 pitched against each other, it was no doubt usually, if not always legendary stuff. Course there were other legendary pitching rivalries back then (as now, but tyhey seem fewer and further between…maybe…maybe not). One, intensified by the team rivalry was Koufax-Marichal. Without actually researching them for support, I’d venture to say that none of their ventures topped last night’s duel between messers Kshaw and Lincecum. CK gave up a homer, and trailed 1-0 most of the way, but TL, now 12-13 and I believe a 2.68 ERA got his usal support, and the Dodgers, playing some good ball of late went on to score the win. 5 man rotations just don’t allow for the total numbers to showcase pitchers as they did back then (in some ways, pitchers, working less, and better rested might have an advantage, but total numbers can overwhelm you), but that game was better than advertised. Neither guy faced a potent offense, but Kshaw did nothing to yield ground in the CY race. The more I’ve thought about it, I still believe Cliff has a very nominal lead heading into tonight, Doc 2nd, CK 3rd, but if the season ended right now, my prediction on the vote would be Doc winning. I don’t know that I’d veneture a confident guess on 2 and 3. Guessing how the scribes’d vote is a crapshoot of course, but rep is rep, particularly since he’s had an excellent year and is a competitive choice. Lotsa time left.
The ignorance of Bill Plaschke rolls on. 9/15 LAT.
This is not to condone the dangerous act of throwing at a player’s head, which is what the Angels’ Jered Weaver did earlier this summer against the Detroit Tigers. Kershaw wasn’t doing that. He simply threw it enough inside to brush an arm and send a message.
The message is, you want this pitcher in your clubhouse. You want this pitcher on your mound. Cy Young would undoubtedly be proud to have this pitcher’s name on his award.
With two weeks left in the season, Kershaw leads the league in ERA (2.34) and strikeouts (236) while being tied for the league lead with 19 wins. Halladay may have pitched in bigger games, but he does not have better numbers, and the vote should not be close.
On a night he lost a fastball, Clayton Kershaw won an award, captured a clubhouse and asked a very pointed question of an Arizona hayseed.>>
One nice thing about the way the past weekend shook out was that the Phils had a chance to win the division on their own. Always makes it more impactful. Clay Kershaw wasn’t on the field last night. And he still has work to do, including an absolute headline matchup tonight in a meaningful game against Tim Lincecum, plus 1 more start that may or may not be against Arizona, and may or may not be meaniningfu.
But realistically, it’s not like Doc had a bad game, it’s not like Cliff might not throw 2 more terrific efforts, Kshaw took a fairly commanding lead off either a very close, or very slight deficit position last night with little time, and less team meaning left to the long season.
This, to me is actually good news. It has been a nothing short orf fabulous year watching the as it turns out Phils top 3 throw CY level stuff a lot more often than not. It would have, and still would be nice to cop the award a second year in a row, but in the liklihood that the award moves west, its a great thing for the game, and for tradition. Clay Kershaw has long been thought of as a super prospect. When he was freaking 20 years old, he started Game 1 of the Dodgers playoffs against the Phils. Phillie fans might not be aware of the exact great skill set he has because he’s never pitched particularly well against the locals, but you always knew the potential was there. And whether or not he does go on to win, cain’t nobody take this fabulous breakout year from him that combines with an image of being a very solid guy. Whether its a 1 year passing of the torch to him, or a breakout of consistency, time will verify personal suspicion’s that this is long term greatness. And it’d add to a now string like formation of Los Angeles lefties that own CY belts. A photograph of Koufax, Fernando, and Kshaw holding up hardware wouldn’t hurt my eyes one bit.
Kudos also for another seemingly terrific young man, Ian Kennedy for emphasizing his candidacy with a stellar game last night to put 20 in his back pocket. I haven’t, and continue to haven’t thought that he had no shot at winning the award. And I don’t know who of CK, Doc, and Cliff you’d leave off a ballot, but including Ian on a 3 candidate card wouldn’t be so bad.
It has been a great race, and seems proper that it should end with all the great candidates finishing strong, and being celebrated for their great years. But for now, and probably finally, it looks like the award is headed elsewhere.
Dylan hernandez looks at CK vs. Sandy
http://www.latimes.com/sports/la-sp-0920-clayton-kershaw-dodgers-20110920,0,2566284.story