Update: Deal not done yet, and Papelpon still in play?
Source close to Madson said Tues night there was no deal and talks were ongoing. Still believe Papelbon in picture.
Sorry for the long title. Trying to get a bunch of Phillies updates into one post.
The first order of business is that multiple outlets are reporting that Ryan Madson has re-signed with the Phillies for 4 years, $44 million.
It’s certainly a hefty contract for a relief pitcher, and as with all Ruben Amaro contracts, it has one more year than I would like, but all-in-all, I’m happy to have Madson back in the fold. Mainly because of what the other options were:
1. Sign Papelbon to a larger deal because of his name, or sign a seriously-in-decline Heath Bell
2. Roll the dice with Bastardo, and risk downgrading both the 8th and 9th innings
Instead, we got Madson for 4 more years, at less per year than what we signed Lidge for in 2008. Add to the fact that we have a lot of potential young, cheap bullpen pieces for those 4 years in Bastardo, Stutes, De Fratus, Schwimer, Aumont and Savery and I’m fine with move.
So what’s next? There have been a couple rumors floating around, and we might as well talk about them here…
Michael Cuddyer – Lots of chatter that he is the Phillies top priority after Madson, but there are a lot of other teams after Cuddyer as well. In fact, someone just tweeted that he is currently IN Philadelphia. As I stated in my top-50 FA post, he is someone I would want, but I have a feeling the Phillies may grossly overpay for him. 3 years, $27 million seems reasonable to me.
Yoenis Cespedes – A guy no one really knew was even on the market until about a week ago, Cespedes is apparently the best position player to come out of Cuba maybe ever. Lots of teams are in on him, and it seems to me the best fit is the Marlins, but the Phillies reportedly are in that mix. Certainly a much more risk/reward signing. Got to say, after seeing the video of him, it would certainly be exciting to see what he can do. See Crashburn Alley’s write-up on him here.
So – the Phillies’ payroll situation really seems to dictate that after the Madson signing, unless they are going to raise payroll again (not an impossibility) that it will either be they sign Cuddyer (or a player like him) or they sign Rollins. You could make a case for either player. Cuddyer provides an offensive upgrade, but would it offset the downgrade at SS?
Maybe they can do some creative accounting and land both. After the Cliff Lee bombshell last year, it’s almost what you would expect from RAJ and co. at this point.
Lemme divert a little bit here. When I see Cespedes and maybe the best Cuban player ever in the same sentence, common sense leads me to laughter. Within an open mind, mind you.
I mean, 5 tools or not, the road to adjustment, and maturation through the skill set of Tony Oliva, and Tony Perez, and Raffy Palmiero (I guess just born in Cuba, not raised though I’m guessing) is a long way to best Cuban ever.
So I tried to access some scouting report on Oliva to see if he was balleyhooed upon Cuban exit. That particular mission wasn’t accomplished, but some good reminiscents of the baseball world, and talent population from 1964 was found as a worthwhile consolation prize.
http://books.google.com/books?id=fi0DAAAAMBAJ&pg=PA2&lpg=PA2&dq=scouting+reports+tony+oliva&source=bl&ots=dmRCHrjQZh&sig=xNAdPf1viSGC3oM_LmXDs95N5ek&hl=en&ei=Dti5Tsu3GsnyggeN6tC4CA&sa=X&oi=book_result&ct=result&resnum=6&ved=0CDoQ6AEwBQ#v=onepage&q=scouting%20reports%20tony%20oliva&f=false
Said all along I’d rather have Ryan than Jimmy, even though Jimmy is the more likeable guy. Ruben, once again saving talk radio all across the tri-state area!
Well, let it never be said that Amaro isn’t agressive. I don’t love the extra year either, but Madson has been pretty durable (just so long as he doesn’t kick any more chairs). He’ll be 35 in his final year. Not optimal, but not awful either.
I am not exactly thrilled with the amount but it’s fair market value at least. I reserve comment until I see what happens with the SS position. RAJ sure is quick with the wallet though. Not complaining. Yet.
Too much scratch for too much time for a hit-an-inning reliever with but 52 saves. Nice work, Boras! Ruben, don’t you ever learn?
I think Madson’s contract is fair, he’s consistent, his stats as a closer are in line with the other FA closers that were out there (better in some cases). They were going to pay that much to someone, I’d just assume see it going to our own guy.
That added footnote in the post off the lack of announcement by this morning should be read with credibility, coming from Jim SAalisbury, guy with history of a good sense of tracking Phillies news. Jimn, as one example, looked pretty off the wall last off season for the longest time mentioning that he thought the Phils would make a push for Cliff. I don’t just write it off when a guy like him opines that he thinks Papelbon is still in play.
11 mill per? Way too much. 8 of last 10 WS champs did NOT have a dominant closer. I will give you Rodriquez for Angels earlier in the first decade and Rivera in 2009, even though he wasn’t that dominant anymore. The other 8 teams did not have what was thought to be a top 5 closer entering the year they won it all. Anything over 7 mill was too much.
As an aside, This joke that is called the Eagles (or as I like to call it the “Lincoln Financial Circus”) is the best thing that could happen to the Phils. The Phils are in danger of (and probably already have) entering a fan fatique period. People can only be led to the precipice of emotional high for so long and so often until they just can’t invest anymore in the same group of players. If somehow the Eagles would have lived up to the dream team hype and won a title, you could be certain the Phils attendance would have been impacted. With another title in town, fans would have had more of a “show me” attitude. I can certainly gaurantee that the sellout streak ends this year. But once again the Eagles drop the ball and leave the whole town to the Phils. Big plus for PHils and may even impact how much money they will spend on FA this year.
“8 of last 10 WS champs did NOT have a dominant closer.”
LOL – seriously dude?
Regular season stats for last 10 closers…
2011: Jason Motte – 2.25 ERA, 0.96 WHIP
2010: Brian Wilson – 1.81 ERA, 1.18 WHIP
2009: Mariano Rivera – 1.76 ERA, 0.91 WHIP
2008: Brad Lidge – 1.95 ERA, 1.23 WHIP
2007: Jon Papelbon – 1.85 ERA, 0.77 WHIP
2006: Adam Wainwright – 3.12 ERA, 1.15 WHIP
2005: Bobby Jenks – 2.75, 1.25 WHIP
2004: Keith Foulke – 2.17 ERA, 0.94 WHIP
2003: Ugueth Urbina – 1.41 ERA, 0.94 WHIP
2002: Francisco Rodriguez – 1.93 ERA, 0.80 WHIP
Jenks and Wainwright are the only two that are definitely not dominant – the other 8 averaged 1.89 ERA and 0.97 WHIP.
why let facts get in the way of a good story?
Pete – I realize that you lack respect for me. But the problem is you let that interfere with your reading of my posts. Your response is wrong and you are misrepresenting me. Please go back and reread my post.
Hint: their actual stats/performance of the year of the WS have no bearing on my point.
Example: Lidge was hardly considered a Top 5 closer before the 2008 season.
I read your second part. I was responding to this:
“8 of last 10 WS champs did NOT have a dominant closer. I will give you Rodriquez for Angels earlier in the first decade and Rivera in 2009, even though he wasn’t that dominant anymore. “
If you are “giving me” Rodriguez, this is clearly a different point. K-Rod didn’t pitch in the majors until September of that WS year – so obviously he was not Top-5 prior to the season, yet you use him as an example of the 2. Rivera was also dominant, clearly, in 2009.
Don’t try to make me out to be the bad guy. Make your points coherently and with proper research.
Your second point is completely valid, and would have been good w/o the first part. You are absolutely right that many times someone comes out of the blue.
So therefore there is no need to overpay for an established top 5 closer going into a season. Therefore, Phils overpaid.
8 of 10 teams did not have a dominant closer…actually, looking at that list, I would say 9 of 10. What is interesting in that list is that only Rivera was a dominant closer for longterm, and a 4 year deal to me is long term. Maybe Papelbon, but when they won it, it was only his 2nd year. Now, he has stayed above the tide since then, so I assume he is your 2nd guy. But the point is that I think you are trying to make is that you don’t need that name closer to win. Seriously, how many of us knew who Motte was 4 weeks ago? Foulke was at the end of the line, and was never one of the top relievers…led the league in saves once (the year before they won), top 5 three times…that is not elite. Urbina was a few years away from jail…and was never elite…good, but not among the best. Wainright was NEVER a closer in the Major Leagues EXCEPT during those playoffs. K-Rod had 0 saves in the regular season the year that they won it and 0 saves in the playoffs/WS. The closer was Troy Percival. So whoever listed those closers for each year, please, use the facts….I know K-Rod is a bigger name than Percival, but he is the WRONG name.
Actually, Jason Motte has been a blue chip prospect for a few years now…anybody who plays fantasy baseball “knew who he was” 3 years ago, let alone 4 weeks ago.
Phils don’t have anybody close to that ready to step in next year without hurting the rest of the pen.
thanks, you got my point.
I think the important point is not whether teams got lucky and had a dominant closer emerge during the season, but that they had one when it mattered. Because however you get there, it seems pretty clear that you do need to get there. So the question is do you want to pay for it up front, or roll the dice and hope bastardo can make it happen?
Now, the rumor is Papelbon is back in the mix. or is that just a negotiating tool ?
I’d take Madson over Papelbon any day. I follow the Sox and he has more mileage on him, and he hasn’t been so dominant like he was a few yrs ago.
I hope so. I don’t want Papelbon. Has been shaky the last couple years. Would only take him on a shorter contract like 2 years.
I have a thought on the Marlins and their “activity” so far this offseason. I wouldn’t be surprised to see them sign exactly zero marquee names like Pujols, Reyes, or Buehrle. They’ve got the new digs in Miami. They’ve got the new skipper in Ozzie Guillen. They’re unveiling the new uniforms and logos tonight. Add to that all the ink they’re getting for their “interest” in the guys I mentioned above and that’s more than enough hype to sell out 50 games this season. Plus they don’t need those guys to improve on last year’s record (in fact they don’t even need to improve on last year’s record). If they keep their payroll around $55M again and then add on all the revenue from the stadium and the new swag they’ll fill those coffers nicely and could make an even bigger impact in 2013. That’s my advice to the Miami Marlins: sign no one, bank on Ramirez and LoMo and Ozzie and your new park and your new kit and make the money. Of course, if that were my team I’d want them to spend themselves into a bottomless pit just to win 90 games again.
Super post! Just like your blog professionalism! Keep up the good work.