In the off-season, the Phillies couldn’t engage in talks for big name pitchers like Dan Haren or Johan Santana or even medium name pitchers like Joe Blanton or Jon Garland because of their lack of elite minor league talent.
Going into the season, they had only 2 top-100 prospects in RHP Carlos Carrasco and LHP Joe Savery. However, a quarter of the way through the season, the Phillies’ minor league system has seen several new names and some old names either emerge or step up their game and show that our farm system might be better off than we thought.
So that there is some baseline to the numbers you are about to see, here are the same numbers for some recent Phillies top prospects in the minors for their last year in the minors.
|
Name |
Level |
Age |
W |
L |
ERA |
WHIP |
SO |
BB |
IP |
K/9 |
H/9 |
|
K. Kendrick |
AA |
22 |
4 |
7 |
3.21 |
1.23 |
50 |
18 |
81.1 |
5.53 |
9.07 |
|
C. Hamels |
A-AAA |
22 |
3 |
1 |
1.10 |
0.84 |
68 |
12 |
49.0 |
12.49 |
5.32 |
|
B. Myers |
AAA |
21 |
9 |
6 |
3.59 |
1.10 |
97 |
20 |
128.0 |
6.82 |
8.51 |
|
R. Wolf |
AAA |
22 |
4 |
5 |
3.61 |
1.32 |
72 |
29 |
77.1 |
8.38 |
8.50 |
|
G. Floyd |
AA |
21 |
6 |
6 |
2.57 |
1.17 |
94 |
46 |
119.0 |
7.11 |
7.03 |
New Guys
Drew Naylor, RHP, 6′4” 210, Lakewood (A), Age: 21
|
W |
L |
ERA |
WHIP |
SO |
BB |
IP |
K/9 |
H/9 |
|
3 |
2 |
2.04 |
0.89 |
62 |
13 |
53.0 |
10.53 |
5.77 |
The best indicator of future success for a minor league pitcher is their strikeout rate. If you can’t make minor leaguers miss, you certainly won’t make major leaguers miss. Naylor is one of three Phillies minor leaguers in the top-5 in strikeouts across the entire MiLB. In fact, Naylor is currently #1 after striking out 12 in his last outing. He has 13 more K’s than anyone in his league and is 6th in ERA and 3rd in WHIP. His fastball isn’t dominating, but he has good control and above average breaking pitches (curve and change-up). He will likely be promoted to A-Adv. soon, it will be interesting to see if he can keep his strikeout lead up there.
Antonio Bastardo, LHP, 5′11” 160, Reading (AA), Age: 22
|
W |
L |
ERA |
WHIP |
SO |
BB |
IP |
K/9 |
H/9 |
|
3 |
1 |
1.96 |
1.08 |
58 |
13 |
41.1 |
12.62 |
6.96 |
Get the jokes about his name out of the way, this kid can pitch. He’s already been promoted once this season and his K/9 rate is the best our organization has seen from a starter since Cole Hamels. Like Naylor, he is also in the top-5 in K’s in the MiLB. Bastardo is not as good as Hamels, but he has made dramatic improvements this season. He is paper-thin and like Hamels, he strikes out most people on his change-up. He was a little old to be starting the year in A-Adv, but can make up for it with a strong rest of the season in Reading.
Edgar Garcia, RHP, 6′2” 190, Clearwater (A-Adv), Age: 20
|
W |
L |
ERA |
WHIP |
SO |
BB |
IP |
K/9 |
H/9 |
|
5 |
0 |
3.43 |
1.36 |
36 |
13 |
42.0 |
7.71 |
9.42 |
Garcia actually has the better stuff than Naylor or Bastardo but is still raw and there are some questions about his work ethic. Baseball America says that he has a low-90s fastball with a lot of life and has the make-up of a middle of the rotation starter. He gives up too many hits, but he is still very young and has plenty of time to improve his control.
Old Guys
Fabio Castro, LHP, 5′8” 157, Reading (AA), Age: 23
|
W |
L |
ERA |
WHIP |
SO |
BB |
IP |
K/9 |
H/9 |
|
3 |
0 |
3.21 |
1.34 |
36 |
19 |
33.2 |
9.62 |
6.95 |
Castro has been both a starter and and reliever for Reading this year. The Phillies probably aren’t sure whether to peg him as a starter or a reliever because of his size and potential durability issues. He has already showed his potential on the Major League level with a 3.30 ERA in 43.2 IP. When he started for the Phillies, it was clear that he had good stuff, but needed to work on his location. He has more strikeouts than IP and a decent H/9 rate, but he still needs to work on his control. If he gets that together, he could be a decent starter.
J.A. Happ, LHP, 6′5” 205, Lehigh Valley (AAA), Age: 25
|
W |
L |
ERA |
WHIP |
SO |
BB |
IP |
K/9 |
H/9 |
|
0 |
4 |
2.72 |
1.23 |
55 |
23 |
46.1 |
10.68 |
6.60 |
Happ made 1 start for the Phillies last year, and I would be shocked if he isn’t in the rotation in the next couple months. Happ was injured for much of last year, but has had a huge bounce back year. He is kind of similar to Randy Wolf in that he has a low-90s fastball that hitters have trouble picking up because of his deceptive motion. Unlike Wolf, his best breaking pitch is a change-up. His K/9 rate has always been around 9, but this year, he striking people out at the best rate of his minor league career. He should be up soon, the question is whether he will be replacing Adam Eaton, Kyle Kendrick or someone else in the rotation.
Hyped Guys
Josh Outman, LHP, 6′1” 180, Reading (AA), Age: 23
|
W |
L |
ERA |
WHIP |
SO |
BB |
IP |
K/9 |
H/9 |
|
1 |
2 |
3.00 |
1.58 |
37 |
17 |
33.0 |
10.09 |
9.54 |
One of the strangest moves of the year had the Phillies moving Outman to the bullpen. Outman has been considered one of our better starter prospects for the last couple years. The Phillies have been looking for the LH reliever all year, and my guess is that they are going let Outman get his feet wet in that role this season, and then put him back to starting next year. Like Happ, Outman uses deception to his advantage and has a very impressive K/9 rate. Unlike Happ, he gives up a lot of hits and clearly needs to work on his control with that 1.58 WHIP.
Joe Savery, LHP, 6′3” 215, Clearwater (A-Adv), Age: 22
|
W |
L |
ERA |
WHIP |
SO |
BB |
IP |
K/9 |
H/9 |
|
1 |
3 |
3.91 |
1.52 |
40 |
21 |
46.0 |
7.82 |
9.58 |
One of the Phillies 2 top prospects, the Phillies first round pick last year has had a decent first year in the minors. Savery has a solid fastball and an above average change-up and curve ball. He is currently letting up too many hits and has a high WHIP, but he is still in the transition phase from college to pro. To go along with his solid pitches, Savery has a great work ethic and won’t fall short of the majors due to lack of trying. He has the 2nd highest potential of any Phillies pitcher and will be watched very closely by the organization throughout the year.
Carlos Carrasco, RHP, 6′3” 178, Reading (AA), Age: 21
|
W |
L |
ERA |
WHIP |
SO |
BB |
IP |
K/9 |
H/9 |
|
3 |
3 |
3.77 |
1.30 |
44 |
19 |
43.0 |
9.20 |
7.74 |
Despite being only 21, Carrasco has been the Phillies top prospect for the past couple years. He has 2 of the best pitches in the system; his 92-94 MPH fastball with great late movement and his plus change-up. He has been up and down so far this season, either dominating the compitition or giving up a bunch of hits. He is 2nd in the Eastern League in K’s, but, like many of these other pitchers, he needs to improve his control. Carrasco has the highest ceiling of any the Phillies pitchers, but the Phillies will not rush him to majors.
What this means
None of these guys have the “can’t miss” stuff that Hamels or say, a Tim Lincecum has, but these are 8 guys that have a decent chance to be contributors in our rotation (or atleast trade chips, without killing our system) in the future. All 8 won’t develop into ML Starters, but chances are a couple will within the next couple of years. There numbers look similar or better to all the previous top prospects (Myers, Wolf, etc.)with the exception of Hamels and many of the strike-out rates are very impressive. With the price of pitching as ridiculous as it is these days (see Eaton, Adam) the best way to build your team is through young pitching in your system. For the first time in awhile, the Phillies are looking like the might have more than couple guys who can fit that bill.
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51 comments ↓
You will never see Fabio Castro start for the Phillies. They have already penciled him in as a reliever going forward.
Pete, where do you stand on Pat Gillick? I think he’s been fantastic as a GM. Sure, he’s had some big whiffs (Freddy Garcia, Wes Helms), but his tinkering was just what the Phillies needed to finally get them into the playoffs, and when he decided to blow things up when he first got here, I think he got rid of the right guys and kept the right ones.
I think I would give Gillick’s tenure as the Phillies GM a B+, pending what he does at the trade deadline this year (he has already said he is retiring at the end of the season).
The Garcia trade blew up in his face, but I don’t know anyone who didn’t that was a great move when it was made.
He has been GREAT at picking up cheap, quality players (Romero, Dobbs, Werth, Seanez, Taguchi) and has not hancuffed the orginization after he leaves with any horrendous contracts (remember everyone who wanted Barry Zito?).
Bad moves? The Adam Eaton contract was horrendous at the time and still is. He signed Kris Benson instead of Kyle Lohse, Livan Hernandez or Odalis Perez, all of whom are pitching very well. And he hasn’t really made a BIG splash while he’s been here, which is both good and bad.
The way to build a team is to accumulate assets in your minor league system and either bring them up or use them as trade chips. He’s left the farm system in better shape than when he started and hopefully he can find some more good prospects in his final draft.
SIXERZGUY: Pat Gillick deserves a lot of respect for what he’s accomplished throughout his career, but I didn’t think we were going to get “tinkering” from him. I expected more from him. I don’t think Gillick played any more of a role than sheer dumb luck did in us getting us into the playoffs. The Phillies have tinkered for years with middle of the road guys, guys at the tail end of their careers, etc… hoping that it would all come together. It very rarely did. The last time was ‘93. Think about it. Jamie Moyer, Jason Werth, Greg Dobbs…all turned out to be major contributors last year but, last April, who was jumping up and down proclaiming they would get us into the playoffs. The way I see it: Jamie Moyer=Danny Jackson, Jason Werth=Pete Incaviglia, Kyle Kendrick=Kevin Stocker(surprise mid-season callup), Greg Dobbs=Milt Thompson. Even though the tinkering came together last year and we got red hot down the stretch, we still don’t make the playoffs without a major collapse by the Mets. Another thing. The tinkering again seems ok so far this year. However, the main reason things have held together is because the bullpen has been stellar. We have seen this many times in the past where the starting pitching has not been good and the bullpen has kept us afloat for a few months. The starters are a major concern. Hamels appears to be our only sure thing. Myers and Kendrick are struggling. Moyer is ok now but he pitched well early last year only to fade over the last couple months. No reason to think the same thing won’t happen this year. Adam Eaton…PLEASE. My concern is what happens once the number of appearances by the bullpen climbs to 65-70-75-80 per guy and they wear down, which is inevitable if things continue as they are. We all heard Charlie Manuel ask for starting pitching over and over again. I know everyone always wants starting pitching but that doesn’t mean that we do not need it. Instead of tinkering, it would have been nice if Gillick made a run at Johann Santana. The Mets sent a bunch of prospects to Minn. and got him. We could have done the same thing. This article lists 8 pitchers in the organization with value. Are you telling me we could not put together a package to get a deal done? Bottom line: I don’t think Gillick got us into the playoffs last year and I don’t think he’s done enough to get us there this year either.
Let me clarify my previous post a bit. I am not saying that Pat Gillick did nothing or deserves no credit for the Phillies success last year. I did not mean to come across as bashing him. I suppose even though he has made many moves that appeared middling at the time (Moyer, Dobbs, Werth off of a wrist injury, Romero after the Red Sox waived him, etc…), the fact that so many have worked out well for the Phillies may very well prove how astute he is. I don’t know one way or the other but I just can’t shake the feeling like he is not much different from previous GMs we’ve had here before—and bashed for doing the same kinds of middling pickups.
bski, after I finished reading Pete’s post, I was thinking the same thing - we couldn’t have gotten Santana with one of these guys? There is some validity to your “lucky GM” idea - the White Sox’ fall after their championship really surprised me. And the Phils have made it to only ONE postseason under Gillick. And it did take a historic collapse from the Mets to get us into the playoffs.
People talk about the Phils on sports radio a lot, and one thing I hear over and over is that the Phils don’t wanna go over a certain number for their payroll. If Gillick is hampered by that, then what he’s done is pretty impressive, no? Not exactly Billy Beane, but pretty good.
About the Mets… The Mets DID collapse, and we were able to overtake them, doesn’t that say something about the character of the Phils, and how it’s much better than the Mets’? Gillick should get credit for that character. Would I love to have Abreu’s skills back? Of course, but isn’t the clubhouse atmosphere much better without him? BTW, I thought that was horrible trade, we really didn’t get enough back for the guy.
Back to the character issue - I don’t think Burrell bounces back from his suckiness unless he’s surrounded by the high character guys around him. Also, he managed to wrap Chase and Bret up with those small-ish contracts, that’s pretty nice work, too.
there are a couple factors that would explain why we couldn’t even get to the table with the Twins on Santana.
- as I said, none of these guys are Cole Hamels, Tim Lincecum type guys. I.E., they have off-the-chart stuff. Those are types of players the Twins were looking for (they got a very raw hitter in Carlos Gomez, but were requesting Clay Bucholz and Phil Hughes from the Sox and Yanks, both of which have better stuff than any of our guys)
- only Carrasco and Savery were considered top-3 starter material during the off-season, guys like Bastardo, Happ and Naylor have stepped up their game
- Would an offer of Carrasco, Adrian Cardenas (our best hitting prospect), E. Garcia and Naylor have gotten it done? I don’t really know. I imagine that is about the same quality of the Mets offer, but Naylor was not really on the radar at that point.
- We simply don’t have the money the Mets have to give Santana the contract he wanted. Our budget is what it is. People always say that the Phillies have all this extra money flying around from ticket revenue. But when you take the average price of a ticket ($30) and multiply it by the attendance last year (3,108,881) and you come out with $93,266,430 - about $13 million short of our actual payroll. Sure they also get money from sponsors, suties, vendors, parking, merchandise, etc - but they have many many other expenses as well such as the Minor League teams that can’t really support themselves, 100’s of employees salaries and benefits, constant stadium maintenance, charities, their spring training site, charter flights and so on and so forth. So unless you’ve actually SEEN the Phillies balance sheet, and can see that they have all these 10s of millions of dollars laying around, there really isn’t a proper answer for that.
SIXERZGUY: Make no mistake, Gillick deserves credit for bringing in some pieces, but—and I can’t believe I’m saying this—Charlie Manuel deserves at least as much credit and maybe more for turning these middling pickups into a division winner. Charlie did a lot of pinch running, pinch hitting, late inning defensive replacing, situational bullpen pitching, etc… and he got a lot out of what he was given. Charlie seemed to have a great feel for the team and, most of the time, he got guys in and out at just the right time. He was usually able to put his guys in the position to be successful. I feel that Manuel bumped Gillick from a C+ to the B+ grade that Pete gave him. Think about it. The bottom line is winning. If Charlie didn’t get them to win, we’d be bashing Gillick for not bringing enough talent here to win.
SIXERZGUY: Regarding Burrell. Maybe he is more of a “character” guy than we think he is. I am reading Chris Coste’s book “The 33-year old Rookie”. In it Coste talks about his fantastic 2006 spring training and how he felt sure he would make the big club. Then, just before the season started, the Phils picked up David Delucci. Coste got sent to the minors to make room for him. Coste says that in the clubhouse, as he was getting ready to leave, Burrell came up to him and apologized. Burrell said he was pulling for Coste and he said how sorry he was that Coste got sent down. Burrell went on to say that it was probably his fault. He knew the Phils only got Delucci because they were worried about Burrell’s foot injury. For whatever it’s worth, it makes me look at Burrell a little differently now.
bski, appreciate you taking the time to tell that story, it rules out my theory that being around good people helped him out. What did you originally think of Burrell? I still can’t believe he’s doing what he’s doing, but with how much he’s getting paid he should’ve been doing what he’s doing now on a regular basis.
It’s Ryan Howard that’s killing me. I don’t know the first thing about hitting a baseball (I don’t think Bill Conlin does either), but if something’s not working, you change up, right? Do you think Ryan going to a smaller bat would help? What the heck happened to all those lessons from Tony Gwynn?
SIXERZGUY: No problem. I’ve always thought Pat Burrell seemed like a prick. Just the way he carries himself irritates me. The more I think about it though, I find myself seeing it as a tough exterior shell that he puts up. Really, I can’t say that I blame him. I would even go so far as to say we, the fans and media, are getting what we deserve from him. Think about it. Here’s a guy who was the #1 overall pick, got to the majors in a hurry, had a breakout year in 2002, signed the big contract extension, then pfffft. In 2003 and 2004 he was horrible and we let him have it but good. I think that’s when he put up the wall to keep us out. Even though he has come back and been very productive over the last few years, I’m sure he still feels he’s not getting the respect he deserves. He never seems overly appreciative of the praise he gets when he is hot with the bat but he also wants to hide the anger and frustration he feels when we bash him when for not producing. Look, he was a 3rd baseman in college who successfully changed to left field on the major league level. He played the position well his first couple years, before the foot injuries, had an above average arm, and gunned down a bunch of runners. He has played through his injuries and done everything he can for the team. Still, many Phillies fans can’t wait for this season to be over so his albatross of a contract is finished, he leaves, and we can spend his money on a pitcher and get a better left fielder as well. Back in 2006, Charlie Manuel sat him for a good stretch, I think it was in May and June, when he was struggling again. If memory serves he was very productive in the second half of 2006. Even now, he starts but he comes out for a pinch runner or a defensive replacement in most games. I know he understands he needs to produce to stay in the lineup, but I’m guessing he feels he deserves a little more rope than he gets. I’m not saying he should have started all 162 games each year over his entire career and played every inning because he was truly awful for a few years. However, I can understand where he is coming from and can’t really say I blame him for closing himself off from us.
On the other side, he appears to be a fantastic teammate, truly supportive. I guess as long as you’re respected and appreciated by your teammates and others around the game, and you respect them as well, who really cares what we think?
As for Ryan Howard, I can’t say whether he is refusing to make adjustments or if the adjustments he’s making just aren’t working, or if he’s making too many adjustments and he’s all discombobulated. Whatever it is, it is a major concern. On the positive side, nobody puts up back to back seasons like he did in ‘06 and ‘07 by accident(throw in half of ‘05 and it’s even more impressive). He knows how to hit. Also, he has gotten off to slow starts before and come roaring back like a beast, so you’ve got to think he will turn it around. On the negative side, he has a very long, looping swing with a lot of holes for pitchers to attack. In 2006 he hit 58 homeruns. Something like 23 or 25 were to the opposite field. Last year that number was down considerably and this year he has rarely even hit a ball hard the other way, let alone pile up homeruns that way. Obviously something is different. To me, baseball is a game of constant adjustments. Both pitchers and hitters are constantly watching video of other players, looking for tendencies and weaknesses to exploit. I would have thought that pitchers would certainly have found Howard’s weak spots long before now. Whatever. It seems as though pitchers have found a successful way to attack him and it is now up to him to adjust to it. If he can, he will start to mash the ball again and it will be time for the pitchers to adjust again. If he can’t we are in big trouble and he will cost himself a lot of money in the future in the form of reduced contract dollars.
SIXERZGUY: I just re-read your post. As far as what Burrell should be doing for what he’s getting paid, I don’t believe that. I understand that paying a boatload of money to a player that’s a stiff hurts the team through a lack of productivity and an inability to add other players. However, how much a player gets paid or how high he was drafted is not on him. It is on the organization (owner, gm, etc…) A player cannot truly place a value on himself as far as that goes. The organization decides whom to draft, how much to pay them, etc… When an organization drafts a player high and pays him a lot, that creates expectations. Many times, as we well know, the expectations are way beyond what that player can deliver. None of this is the players fault. Where is the chart that details how many hits, homeruns, rbi, runs, etc…should be produced for every 1 million dollars of salary? Even if the player is a fat, lazy, no talent, overrated slob with no work ethic it’s still the organization’s fault because they decided to sign him.
I will always side with the players over management. The players are millionaires but the owners are billionaires. Big difference. The owners get us to spend our taxpayer dollars to build them stadiums. They get sweetheart deals consisting of tax breaks, parking revenue, concessions revenue, luxury box revenue, etc… They own the cable channels that broadcast the games. Then they lie to us and tell us that their team is losing money. Bull****!! All of these owners became mega-wealthy by being very successful in some other business. So, we are supposed to believe that they were super smart running their business and building their fortune but now they are morons when they run their sports teams…please! They would not spend the money on the players if they did not have it. Read a couple books by Andrew Zimbalist and you’ll get a very clear picture of how the billionaire owners suck us dry. Then, after all this, the owners portray the players as greedy bastards. No way. All these guys work their whole lives to make it. Most of them don’t. Many of those that do don’t last very long. It’s a constant battle to stay on top and the window isn’t open for very long. The owners talk about a lack of player loyalty to their club. Sure they go for the money, but so would you and I because every player puts his body on the line and any day could be the end of his career. Also, after the five, ten, or fifteen year career is over, the owners don’t have to go through the multiple surgeries and years of pain faced by many players. Every player knows that if you slip there are plenty of guys waiting to take your place, and the owners will replace you in a heartbeat without thinking about any loyalty the club owes to the player.
bski, great stuff, I hope you get some reading, Pete’s post is fantastic one, hopefully more people find out about it and then scroll down here…
I need to give the whole Burrell thing some thought, right now I don’t know if I agree or disagree with you, I’d never thought of it that way before… It sounds like you’re saying what a player SHOULD be doing has nothing to do with his contract, it has to do with whether or not… that’s where I’m stuck. A player SHOULD hit a home run every at bat, but that’s not realistic. Maybe it’s a sentence that shouldn’t even be said in baseball… Anyway, like I said, I need to give it some thought. Are you aware of Dave Berri’s work regarding the production of basketball players (win score)? Maybe there’s something similar that can be applied to baseball guys.
But that chart you mentioned - for every X a